Oil Holds Gain as Geopolitical Risks Counter Oversupply Outlook

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Nymex, ICE Europe

Oil held a gain as traders weighed geopolitical tensions from Venezuela to Russia and Iran against concerns about a global glut.

Brent topped $62 a barrel in quiet holiday trading. Venezuela has started to shut wells in the face of a partial US blockade that’s crimped exports, causing local storage tanks to fill. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine faces fresh obstacles after Russia’s Vladimir Putin said he would revise his negotiating position.

Despite those risks, OPEC+ members meeting this weekend are expected to stick with plans to pause further supply hikes amid growing evidence of a global surplus, according to three delegates.

Crude remains on course for a steep annual decline on concern production will eclipse demand after OPEC+ ramped up output in a bid to recapture market share. Among signs of abundant supplies, the amount of oil held on idle tankers has been steadily rising, Vortexa Ltd. data show.

  

In the US, crude stockpiles at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, hub saw the biggest weekly build since late October in the period to Dec. 19, according to government figures. On a nationwide basis, holdings of gasoline and distillates also rose.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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