China’s Next Five-Year Plan Crucial to Staging Coal Exit: Report
(Bloomberg) -- Despite the boom in renewables and a fast-approaching climate deadline, China still doesn’t have a coherent exit strategy for coal, according to new research from clean energy advocates.
Although Beijing has engineered drops in coal-fired power output and carbon emissions, new coal projects are at a decade high, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor said in a report on Monday reviewing the first half of 2025.
That trend is likely to continue over the next two years unless the government takes action, according to the report. Earlier pledges to relegate the fossil fuel to a supporting role haven’t been properly implemented, even as coal’s share of power generation has fallen to a nine-year low of 51% and renewables have risen to 60% of total installed capacity.
“This rush of activity signals possible pressure from the industry to expand coal projects as a last ditch effort before China’s 2030 carbon peaking deadline,” the report said.
That puts the onus on Beijing’s next five-year plan, which should be released early next year, to deliver “a clear, coordinated road map for managing coal power’s decline,” it said.
On the Wire
China’s economy is buckling under the weight of tariffs and a deep-rooted property crisis, yet stocks are extending their bull run — a disconnect that’s stirring doubts on the rally’s staying power.
China’s solar installations continued to slow in July, as developers waited for more details about a new policy that took effect in June and may affect renewables returns. Meanwhile, one of the giants of the industry, Longi Green Energy Technology Co., posted a narrower first-half loss as solar additions helped limit the impact of overcapacity.
Some US metal dealers are redirecting China-bound shipments of scrap copper through countries including Canada, Mexico and Vietnam in a risky move to avoid 10% import tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter.
This Week’s Diary
(All times Beijing)
Monday, Aug. 25
- China Coal earnings call, 15:30
- EARNINGS: Sungrow
Tuesday, Aug. 26
- China’s energy administration briefs on the last 5-year plan, 10:00 in Beijing
- EARNINGS: PetroChina, COSL, Anhui Conch, Angang Steel, Zijin Mining, Modern Dairy
Wednesday, Aug. 27
- China’s industrial profits for July, 09:30
- CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
- PetroChina earnings briefing in HK at 16:00
- CSIA’s weekly polysilicon price assessment
- EARNINGS: Baosteel, Chalco, Cnooc, ENN Energy, CGN Power, Ming Yang, Mengniu Dairy
Thursday, Aug. 28
- CSIA’s weekly solar wafer price assessment
- Cnooc earnings call, 17:00
- EARNINGS: Jiangxi Copper, Hesteel, Maanshan Steel, GEM, Cosco Shipping
Friday, Aug. 29
- China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
- Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
- EARNINGS: Jinko, GCL-Poly, Three Gorges, Yangtze Power, Shenhua, BYD, Gotion, Tianqi Lithium, Citic Ltd.
Saturday, Aug. 30
- Nothing major scheduled
Sunday, Aug. 31
- China’s official PMIs for August, 09:30
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