U.S. Will Redeploy 160 National Guard Troops: Ukraine Update

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. said intelligence indicates Russia may attack Ukraine before the Beijing Winter Olympics end on Feb. 20. Russia’s foreign minister said Washington is leading a “propaganda campaign” against Moscow. 

Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will speak on Saturday as part of a new flurry of diplomatic efforts. The U.S. assessment helped push crude oil prices to their highest since 2014 while U.S. stocks faltered. 

Russia has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion, as the U.S. and its NATO allies warn a buildup of almost 130,000 Russian troops near the Ukrainian border may be preparation to do so, including via Belarus from the north. More countries advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, while Russia said it’s “optimizing” staff at its Ukrainian missions. 

Key Developments

• U.S. Sees China Watching Ukraine Showdown as a Proxy for Taiwan
• U.S. Orders Kyiv Embassy Staff Out After Warning on Russia 
• Oil Surges to $95 as Ukraine Tensions Stoke Supply Concerns
• Russia Starts Major Military Drills in Belarus as NATO Watches
• Russia and Europe Are Vital to Each Other When It Comes to Oil
• What we know so far about potential U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia
• Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine

All times CET.

U.S. Pulling National Guard Out of Ukraine (3:20 p.m.)

Citing an “abundance of caution,” the U.S. will temporarily reposition to elsewhere in Europe some 160 members of the Florida National Guard who’ve been deployed to Ukraine since November. 

The troops have been advising and mentoring Ukrainian forces as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine, said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

The move signals an intent to safeguard the unit from unintended collateral damage. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Friday that “if a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality.” 

No Ukraine Evacuation Planned for U.S. Citizens (2:30 p.m.)

The U.S. decision to direct most embassy staff to leave Kyiv reflects caution that diplomats could get caught up in any Russian military action, a senior State Department official said. The embassy will remain open for essential business. 

The U.S. won’t organize evacuations for citizens still in Ukraine, according to the official. 

While Ukrainian officials understand why the U.S. is taking these steps, not all of them agree with Washington’s assessment of the extent to which potential conflict is imminent, the official said. Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to attack Ukraine.

Blinken Says Diplomatic Path Open; Defense Chiefs Talk (2:34 p.m.)

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that a diplomatic path to resolving the Ukraine crisis is still open, but that Moscow would need to de-escalate and engage in “good-faith discussions,” according to a State Department readout. 

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke Saturday with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, the Pentagon said. Next up, Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak with U.S. President Joe Biden later today.  

Lavrov Accuses U.S. of Leading “Propaganda” Campaign (1:48 p.m.) 

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during the call with U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken, accused the U.S. and its allies of pursuing a “propaganda campaign” in alleging Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to a readout from Moscow. 

The West’s goal is to encourage the government in Kyiv to “sabotage” the Minsk peace accords on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and to try to resolve the issue by force, Lavrov said. 

Responses from Washington and Brussels to Russia’s proposals for security guarantees ignored Moscow’s demand that there be no further NATO expansion and no deployment of offensive weapons systems near Russia’s borders, according to the statement. Lavrov said those questions will be central to Russia’s assessment of the replies.

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says Too Much Talk About an Invasion (1:47 p.m.)

Ukraine’s president said there’s “too much” information in media about alleged Russian plans to invade his country, even as risks persist “each day” and diplomacy remains the only way toward de-escalation.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he can neither confirm nor refute information about something that hasn’t yet happened, calling panic “the best friends for enemies” as he spoke during a televised briefing broadcast from Kherson region near Black Sea. 

“Surprises can happen any time. We must count on our own forces”, Zelenskiy said.

Several EU Countries Urge Citizens to Leave Ukraine (12:53 p.m.)

Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy all issued travel warnings about Ukraine -- recommending that their citizens not travel there, or consider leaving, or both. Denmark, Poland, Sweden and others have issued advisories as well. 

Citing an escalation of tensions in recent days, the German Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning Saturday urging citizens to determine whether their presence in Ukraine is necessary and, if not, to be prepared to depart at short notice. 

“The security situation was already worrying, and has deteriorated further in recent days,” the Dutch foreign minister said. Spain called the situation “volatile.” Italy said essential diplomatic staff would stay for the time being but non-essential workers were asked to leave.

China Says Citizens in Ukraine Must “Pay Attention” (12:34 p.m.) 

China’s embassy in Ukraine warned its citizens there to “pay close attention to the local situation.” 

“The current tension between Ukraine and Russia has drawn attention from many parties,”  the embassy said on its WeChat account. It added that “various theories have emerged, which are inconsistent with each other.” 

Chinese citizens in Ukraine weren’t explicitly advised to leave. The advisory also mentioned the “increasingly severe” coronavirus situation in Ukraine. 

U.S. Orders Most Employees Out, Will Suspend Consular Services (11:35 a.m.) 

The U.S. State Department has ordered “non-emergency U.S. employees” at the embassy in Kyiv to depart, and consular services at the embassy will be suspended as of Sunday.

A small consular presence will continue in Lviv, in far western Ukraine, to handle emergences.

Saturday’s order covers most direct-hire U.S. employees. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should “depart immediately using commercial or other privately available transportation options,” the State Department said in its advisory, citing the potential for significant military action.  

Russia Says It’s ‘Optimizing’ Diplomatic Staff (9:48 a.m.) 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry is “optimizing” staff at its diplomatic missions in Ukraine, saying it fears “possible provocations by the Kyiv regime or third countries,” according to a statement on its website Saturday. 

Earlier, RIA Novosti, citing the mission, reported that Russia’s embassy was working as usual and there had been no decision on a partial evacuation. The Russian news service cited an unidentified person as saying employees were already leaving the country.

Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss that Russia may advise non-essential workers to leave Ukraine because it wasn’t clear “what kind of ideas our Anglo-Saxon colleagues have.” 

Japan, South Korea, New Zealand Urge Their Citizens to Leave (3 a.m.)

Japan, South Korea and New Zealand are also asking their nationals in Ukraine to leave the country. Japan’s foreign ministry elevated its travel warning to the highest level. South Korea will ban travel to Ukraine effective from Sunday. New Zealand said its citizens should leave immediately as the security situation there could change “at short notice.” 

U.S. Warns of Potential Russia Attack on Ukraine Within Days (8:20 p.m.)

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. believes Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an attack on Ukraine before the Beijing Olympics end on Feb. 20, while adding that the U.S. doesn’t know Putin’s final intentions. 

“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House. “It could begin during the Olympics despite a lot of speculation that it will only happen after the Olympics.”

The actions by Russia could include causing a provocation in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s military has been fighting for years against separatists backed by Moscow, or attacking the country’s capital, Kyiv, officials familiar with the matter said.

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