U.S. Warns of Risk That Russia Attacks Ukraine Next Week

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. believes Russia could take offensive military action or attempt to spark a conflict inside Ukraine as early as next week, before the Winter Olympics in Beijing wrap up, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said. 

Conflict “could begin during the Olympics despite a lot of speculation that it could only happen after” the Winter Games end, Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Friday. “What we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a Russian military action would take place even before the end of the Olympics.”

“Our view is that we do not believe he has made any kind of final decision, or we don’t know that he has made any final decision,” Sullivan added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

As tensions escalate, President Joe Biden and Putin will speak on Saturday, according to U.S. and Russian officials. The call will take place Saturday morning, according to a U.S. official. It will be the first direct conversation between the two leaders since Dec. 30.

A Russian assault would likely begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that would cause widespread civilian casualties, Sullivan said, encouraging Americans in Ukraine to leave as soon as feasible. The U.S. military would not go into Ukraine to evacuate Americans in case of conflict, he said. 

“I can’t obviously predict what the exact shape or scope of the military action will be,” Sullivan added. “As I said before, it can take a variety of forms. It could be more limited, it could be more expansive, but there are very real possibilities that it will involve the seizure of a significant amount of territory in Ukraine and the seizure of major cities including the capital city.”

Stocks fell and oil surged to the highest since 2014 as tensions continued to mount. The S&P 500 slid 2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 2%.

Russia has repeatedly rejected charges it plans to invade Ukraine, accusing NATO of threatening its security by considering Ukrainian membership in the military alliance. On Thursday, tens of thousands of Russian troops began exercises with the Belarus military just miles from the Ukraine border. 

Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hit back at the U.S. comments on Telegram. “The hysteria of the White House is more revealing than ever,” she said. “The Anglo-Saxons need a war. At any price. Provocations, misinformation and threats are a favorite method of solving one’s own problems.”

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The actions by Russia could include causing a provocation in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s military has been fighting for years against separatists backed by Moscow, or attacking the country’s capital, Kyiv, officials familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified speaking about such a sensitive topic. They said any action could start as soon as Tuesday and stressed Putin’s final intentions were not known.

Either move would represent a dramatic escalation after months of tensions over Russia’s military buildup near the Ukraine border. The U.S. and other nations estimate Russia now has 130,000 troops in the area. Any action inside Ukraine risks setting off the biggest conflict on European territory since World War II. 

The U.S. on Friday ordered an additional 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne at Fort Bragg, North Carolina to deploy to NATO ally Poland, according to a U.S. official, bringing the total number of U.S. forces there to 5,000. Sullivan said U.S. troops stationed in NATO nations are there for defensive purposes only. More than 80,000 U.S. troops are already in Europe, another U.S. official said. 

Sullivan warned that Russia would confront a NATO alliance “ready to respond decisively” should it take military action and that the costs on Moscow would be long-lasting. “If Russia proceeds its long term power and influence will be diminished, not enhanced by an invasion,” he said. 

The biggest unknown remains the intentions of Putin himself. The U.S. does not know whether Putin has decided to implement such plans, people familiar with the matter said. In addition, the U.S. has not shared evidence underlining the assessments, they said.

“We are trying to stop a war, to prevent the war, to avert a war,” Sullivan said. “And all we can do is come here in good faith and share everything that we know to the best of our ability while protecting sources and methods.”

U.S. and Russian military leaders spoke by phone earlier Friday, Russia’s Interfax reported. 

The U.S. shared its assessment with key allies on Friday, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. On Friday, several countries moved to withdraw embassy staff from Kyiv, as well as advise citizens to avoid Ukraine and, if there, to leave the country.

U.S. told allies in November that Russia had plans to build up troop numbers and military capabilities near Ukraine’s borders. Much of that assessment has come to pass.

Officials have also reiterated they don’t believe Putin has made a final decision on Ukraine. Recent U.S. warnings -- including that Russia planned to fabricate an attack on pro-Russia separatists to justify an attack -- have also not been accompanied by public details of the intelligence behind them.

Biden is likely to spend much of his weekend focused on the Ukraine crisis. The president is traveling to Camp David, Maryland, where he’s expected to be in talks with his national security team and European counterparts, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said. 

(Updates with Biden-Putin call on Saturday, in fourth paragraph.)

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