China’s June LNG Imports Seen in Line With Last Year, Kpler Says

(Bloomberg) -- China’s June imports of liquefied natural gas are expected to be flat from a year earlier, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Kpler, as the nation ramps up spending after an earlier contraction to meet summer demand.

The country is estimated to have bought about 5.29 million tons of the super-chilled fuel this month, according to the ship-tracking researcher, comparable to last year’s traded volumes. 

Lower domestic output, depleting storage levels, a hot summer, and international prices falling from highs reached during the peak of the US-Iran war all contributed to the uptick. While the nation’s LNG imports have been sluggish over the past months, as buyers choose cheaper pipeline gas, the renewed appetite could intensify competition with other buyers in Asia and Europe before winter.

China’s domestic gas production fell 2.1% year on year to around 21.7 billion cubic meters in May, the first annual decline for the month in more than a decade, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The drop in output is mainly due to offshore disruptions and maintenance at some processing plants, according to Go Katayama, a principal insight analyst for LNG at Kpler.

Storage levels were around 46% at the end of May, below the five-year seasonal average, and are expected to fall further by end-June, Katayama said. “This leaves China with a relatively thin inventory buffer ahead of July and August, supporting continued spot LNG purchases.”

The war in the Middle East has choked shipments from the Gulf, which typically supplies about a third of China’s LNG, though the drop in deliveries from Qatar has mostly been offset through other sources, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Demand in China is expected to remain elevated through August, though it should soften in the fourth quarter as domestic production recovers and petrochemical gas consumption weakens, Katayama said. Total imports this year are seen at 63.8 million tons, slightly below the 2025 level, as elevated spot prices continue to weigh on industrial use, he said.

More News:

• Pakistan LNG is seeking to purchase a cargo on a DES basis for June 30-July 4 delivery
• GAIL India purchased an LNG cargo on a DES basis for July 25-Aug. 10 delivery at the low-to-mid $14/mmbtu range
• Pakistan is seeking to buy liquefied natural gas for delivery this week as a string of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts flows of the super-chilled fuel
• A liquefied natural gas tanker docked at a US-sanctioned storage unit in Russia’s Murmansk region, the first time the vessel has loaded blacklisted fuel and the latest sign of Moscow’s efforts to expand exports despite Western sanctions

Drivers:

• European natural gas climbed as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was put to the test by strikes over the weekend, despite both sides agreeing to halt attacks for now
• China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on June 28 was 178k tons, 11% higher than this time last year, according to ship-tracking data
• European gas-storage levels were ~48% full on June 27, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~63%
• Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 158k tons/day on June 28, 1.3% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
• Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~18.8 bcf/day on June 28, down 2.4% w/w: BNEF

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