Ukraine's Double-Barreled Drone Strikes Snarl Russian Oil Flows
(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine’s two-pronged attacks on Russia’s oil refineries and Black Sea ports are hitting the country’s fuel supplies and at the same time preventing Moscow from diverting crude into exports.
In the four weeks through Aug. 23, overseas crude flows fell to 3.46 million barrels a day, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg show. Shipments had previously risen as the strikes on Russia’s refineries left more crude available for export, but that increase is now unwinding, after drone hits on oil tankers cut shipments from the Black Sea.
That’s led Moscow to redirect Kazakh barrels to its Black Sea port at Novorossiysk in order to free up space for its own crude at the Baltic Ust-Luga terminal, which is seen as less vulnerable to Kyiv’s attacks.
Meanwhile, strikes on Russian oil and gas processing plants continue to be an almost nightly occurrence, sending crude processing rates tumbling and creating domestic gasoline supply issues. Falling Russian crude shipments come on top of Kremlin-imposed bans on overseas shipments of key refined products, including most gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies, which are further reducing inflows to Moscow's war chest.
During previous periods of heightened strikes on refineries, Russia was able to divert crude that couldn’t be processed domestically into the export stream. But that doesn’t appear to happening this time around, with production rates taking the strain.
Output fell to 8.89 million barrels a day last month, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That was almost 1 million barrels a day below the country’s permitted production level under a long-running agreement with its OPEC+ allies.
Even after the recent plunge, however, Russia’s seaborne crude exports remain relatively strong. Shipments so far in 2026 are running about 9% above the highest average for any year since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Crude Shipments
In the week to Aug. 23, some 33 tankers loaded 24.79 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume compared with a revised 23.84 million barrels on the same number of ships the previous week.
Shipments resumed at Novorossiysk, but loading operations remained well below normal levels.
Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.
There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Ust-Luga and two from Novorossiysk during the week.
The amount of Russian crude at sea fell further in the week to Aug. 23, dropping to about 83 million barrels, the lowest in a year. With voyage times of at least a month for Baltic Urals cargoes to reach India, deliveries continue to reflect higher levels of shipments in past weeks, drawing more crude off the water than is being loaded.
The amount of Russian crude on the water is now back at levels seen before the surge that began with tougher US rhetoric on possible sanctions against buyers of Moscow’s oil late last year.
Export Value
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports slipped to $1.65 billion a week in the 28 days to Aug. 23, down by $80 million a week from the revised figure for the period to Aug. 16. The drop was driven by lower crude flows, with only small changes in prices for Russia’s key crudes.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports rose by about $100 million, driven by a combination of increased flows and higher prices.
Flows by Destination
China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, marked as “Unknown Asia.”
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, slipped to 3.29 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Aug. 23, down from 3.43 million in the period to Aug. 16.
Flows to Turkey, Russia’s biggest buyer west of Suez, in the period to Aug. 23 slipped to about 100,000 barrels a day, down from a revised 130,000 barrels a day for the period to Aug 16.
Flows to Syria averaged about 40,000 barrels a day, unchanged from the period to Aug. 16, while shipments to Egypt, Russia’s newest east Mediterranean customer, were also unchanged, at about 30,000 barrels a day, in the four-week period, half the level seen during the 28 days to Aug. 9.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Sept.15.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
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