Europe Set for Warm September Before Start of Heating Season
(Bloomberg) -- After a succession of summer heat waves, Europe is set for a warmer-than-average September, which could potentially extend into the start of the heating season the following month.
“You’re coming off the back of a notably warm summer, it’s going to be difficult for it to be anything other than at least a little bit above average,” said James Peacock, head meteorologist at Leeds-based weather analytics firm MetSwift.
That trend for above-norm temperatures could last through September and into the start of winter in central Europe, according to a seasonal analysis from Meteo France. That would help the region replenish its gas stockpiles, easing fears about heating shortages during the colder months.
At the same time, the odds of a September heat wave are diminishing in the UK and northwest Europe, according to the UK Met Office, though weather analytics firm MetDesk expects warm conditions across Spain, the Nordics and eastern Europe through mid-September. The sunshine will bolster solar generation in parts of the region.
Europe’s September heat is expected despite the growing chances of a La Niña pattern emerging and bringing unusually cold conditions to waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. That shift could happen this month, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest update on Tuesday, but it’s unlikely to cool global temperatures significantly.
Since warmer air holds more moisture, drives ocean evaporation and can supercharge storm systems, Europe’s sweltering summer is increasing the likelihood of intense rains across the UK in September, said MetSwift’s Peacock. “The forecast modeling is very wet for the near future,” he said.
The Met Office forecasts also expects frequent rains during September, but said it’s unlikely to be enough to reverse UK water shortages stemming from a dry and record-hot summer.
“We really do need more wet weather as we go through autumn, as we go through winter in order to help fill up the rivers and reservoirs,” Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said in a forecast briefing.
Seasonal shifts are likely to bring more low-pressure systems to feed clouds and storms, but those will be slow to overcome residual heat in both the atmosphere and the seas around Europe, according to Germany’s Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency. The North Sea recorded its warmest ever temperatures this summer.
Low-pressure systems are set to bolster wind generation across the UK, France and western Nordic countries through mid-September, according to an analysis from MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis.
Wind speeds in Germany are set to improve by mid-September, but may fall below average over the month as a whole, according to Emma Patmore, a meteorologist at Metdesk.
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