Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

By Bloomberg

Mar 05, 2023

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(Bloomberg) -- Here are some notable charts to monitor in commodities markets over the coming days.

OIL

Crude oil explorers, investors and analysts will gather this week at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference — one of the industry’s biggest global events. The conference comes as producers shower investors with record dividends, while facing calls from governments and others to boost output in an effort to ease global shortages.

The US has become an increasingly critical supplier to buyers overseas. Among the reasons: buyers in Asia and Europe are still seeking alternatives to sanctioned Russian oil and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at a steep discount to its international counterpart.

GAS

US natural gas prices are rebounding after last month hitting the lowest since pandemic-era lockdowns more than two years ago. They’re up about 50% since Feb. 22. The biggest reason for the surge: a cold blast that’s forecast to boost heating demand as production appears to be slowing. Prices are also being lifted by a record amount of natural gas heading to US export terminals after a key facility in Texas restarted.

MINING

PDAC, a big global mineral exploration and mining conference, starts Sunday in Toronto, drawing executives, investors, bankers and government officials. Mergers and acquisitions are expected to be a big topic given Newmont Corp.’s $17 billion pursuit of Newcrest Mining Ltd. Mining giants including BHP Group, Glencore Plc and Rio Tinto Group have also signaled renewed interest in takeovers.

AGRICULTURE

With grain prices slumping from the highs that followed Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, there’s now the prospect of food deflation, including for meat, cereal and bread.

Investors and traders are anticipating the US Department of Agriculture’s next supply and demand report, scheduled for March 8. Analysts expect the agency to lift its estimate for corn stockpiles in the US, the world’s biggest producer.

NICKEL

The UK markets watchdog initiated a probe into the London Metal Exchange for potential misconduct during a massive nickel short squeeze last year. Also, the LME nickel market is still dogged by illiquid and erratic trading.

The metal has slid nearly 19% this year amid concern that new supply from Indonesia, the largest producing country, may flip the market into a surplus.