Trump’s announcement Monday, in which he asserted the US would become the waterway’s “GUARDIAN,” intensifies an ongoing spat between Washington and Tehran over the status of the crucial shipping passage at the center of the two nations’ revived conflict.

US military forces will resume blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas beginning July 14 at 4 p.m. New York time, Central Command said in a statement.

Oil prices rose more than 9% Monday as traders rushed to price in flows through Hormuz possibly slowing again, while stocks and bonds fell.

The president posted on social media that the strait “will remain OPEN, with or without Iran.” While Iran’s ships would be blocked from entering or leaving, other nations’ vessels could cross. But the US “as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped,” the president wrote. 

The White House did not provide other details on Trump’s fee proposal, including how it would be administered or whether it had been communicated to US allies in the Gulf. 

More than 10 people involved in shipping markets, including a handful whose ships have passed through Hormuz in recent weeks, said they were blindsided by the announcement of a potential fee on cargoes crossing the waterway. They said it was too early to know what the plan might look like in practice and how it would shape their decisions about transit.

A reinstatement of the blockade on Iranian ports may prompt the Islamic Republic to step up attacks on ships seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which would continue a pattern of tit-for-tat strikes over the past week. Transits through the strait sank to their lowest level in a month on Sunday, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Iran sees any challenge to its authority in the strait as a breach of the interim peace agreement it struck with the US. The deal provided for toll-free commercial shipping during a 60-day negotiating window and required Tehran to “make arrangements” to ensure the safe passage of vessels. The country has continued to insist that ships must obtain permission and follow approved routes.

GLOBAL REACT: Trump’s 20% Toll Threat Raises Questions, Eyebrows

Earlier on Monday, Iran’s government said the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase” and that it won’t abide by its terms as long as the other party violates commitments.

“At least rhetorically, Trump appears to be trying to play the Iranians at their own game,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Rest assured, the Iranians won’t be giving up the strait that easily.”

Trump’s latest declaration underscores his precarious position a little over three weeks after he signed the memorandum of understanding. The deal clinched a ceasefire and for a time uncorked the bottleneck in the strait, which brought down oil prices and promised to lower gasoline costs ahead of November’s US midterm elections. 

But with armed hostilities resuming and Iran reasserting its claim over the strait, Trump is now looking for a way to reclaim leverage.

Price Risk

However, any new fee threatens to raise fuel costs. A 20% charge would work out to about $32 million for a fully-loaded very large crude carrier at current oil prices. That’s far higher than the tolls that have been charged by Iran, which have previously been described as reaching $2 million by people familiar with the situation.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical conduit for energy and other commodities, having provided passage for about a fifth of the world’s oil flows before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February. Iran’s efforts to close the waterway during the war pushed up energy prices globally and created political blowback for Trump.

Trump celebrated the interim peace pact by touting the potential impact on gasoline prices and the economy, an acknowledgement to just how eager he is to put the conflict behind him.

Other countries and industries reliant on traffic through the narrow waterway have insisted it should be free to access, without tolls or maritime service charges. Several US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump, previously said the strait should remain open for all.

Trump, however, telegraphed a change of heart earlier Monday, saying on Fox News that the US should be compensated for helping to keep traffic moving through the strait. Other countries “made all the money” previously, he alleged. Insisting on that could anger Gulf allies that export energy through Hormuz.

“We guarded it for nothing, and now we’re going to guard it, and we’re going to get paid for guarding it — a lot of money.” Trump said. “But we just want to be reimbursed for doing all of this, for putting our people in danger.”

Trump has repeatedly sent conflicting signals about his plans for the strait and has in the past suggested the US should receive some financial benefit from it. Earlier in the conflict, Trump floated the idea that Iran and the US would both receive compensation from shippers using the strait.

Plan Roadblocks

Trump’s plan would amount to a herculean task that could invite blowback from US industries and allies, while potentially defying international law if not applied narrowly to escorted ships.

Under international law, ships generally are guaranteed a right of transit passage through waterbodies used for international navigation, and coastal states aren’t allowed to charge vessels for the opportunity. There can, however, be charges for some “specific services” rendered to individual ships.

A spokesperson for The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations’ shipping watchdog, reiterated that the body “stands firmly against charging fees for passage through straits used for international navigation.”

In recent weeks, US forces have mounted an operation to escort oil tankers and commercial ships through the strait, with air power and naval forces helping to encourage traffic on a southern route, further from Iran’s shores, even as Tehran asserted control over the waterway. 

Yet analysts have said that an even more intensive military operation involving ground troops would be necessary for the US to maintain control of the strait, an action Trump has thus far been unwilling to take.

Other Trump administration moves to insulate shipping in the strait amid the war have yet to fully materialize. In March, Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade through the region. 

While the DFC later announced a $40 billion reinsurance facility with the support of private partners, it’s unclear whether it has provided any coverage yet.

(Updates with timing of blockade in third paragraph)

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That’s according to George Bilicic, global head of power, energy and infrastructure at Lazard Inc., which tracks the so-called levelized cost of energy. That’s the long-term electricity price a power-plant must get to break even. 

For combined cycle gas plants, that rose to $90 a megawatt-hour in 2026, according to a report Monday. That’s up from $78 a year earlier and the highest since 2009, the earliest year in the data, when the cost was $83.

It’s not just gas that’s getting more expensive. The cost for solar rose to $69 a megawatt-hour and onshore wind increased to $68, both up more than 10% from a year ago and the highest since at least 2014. 

The findings help illuminate why utility bills are climbing in parts of the US. High electric costs have emerged as a key issue for voters, and are a talking point in the runup to the midterm elections in November.

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TCL Zhonghuan said in a letter to customers on Monday that it completed the acquisition of DAS Solar, a manufacturer of solar cells and modules based in Zhejiang province, on July 2. “This integration strengthens our capabilities across the entire photovoltaic value chain from silicon wafers and cells to modules,” the company said.

TCL Zhonghuan first unveiled the deal in March, saying in an announcement to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it would spend 1.26 billion yuan ($186 million) on a 66.34% stake in DAS Solar. At the time, the company said the purchase was a response to the government’s call for leading solar firms to improve the sector’s development and competitive landscape.

The move comes at a critical time for China’s solar industry, which is seeking to unwind years of reckless expansion during a cutthroat race to build up market share. Manufacturers themselves have called for government assistance after their own efforts failed to curb excess capacity or deliver a meaningful recovery in prices. Last month, the government rolled out three national standards for the solar industry that will take effect from Jan. 1.

TCL Zhonghuan’s acquisition follows a similar deal announced in February, when Tongwei Co. said it planned to buy privately held Qinghai Lihao Qingneng Co.

The latest deal also expands TCL Zhonghuan’s footprint beyond solar wafers. In a filing earlier this month, the company said the transaction would allow it to “rapidly and efficiently” establish 20 gigawatts of solar-cell manufacturing capacity and 50 gigawatts of module-production capacity.

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Global benchmark Brent rose above $79 a barrel, after rallying by more than 5% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. US Central Command said on Monday it struck dozens of targets on Sunday to degrade Iran’s ability to attack international shipping passing through the waterway. 

Iran had said on Sunday the strait would be closed “until further notice,” as the Islamic Republic’s forces launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on American allies across the Middle East, including Jordan and Qatar. In addition, Kuwait said an offshore drilling platform had been hit and damaged.

Crude has rebounded this month as the uncertainty reinserted a war premium into prices, erasing some of the declines seen in May and June after an interim peace deal offered the prospect of more supply. The flare-up risks derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, the International Energy Agency said on Friday — a reminder of what’s at stake for the global economy if the conflict continues.

The latest flare-up remains escalatory but “well short of all-out hostilities,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “We are likely to see oil prices inch higher for as long as the strikes continue and passage through the strait remains more hesitant.”

Traffic through Hormuz — which normally carried about a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies — was almost nonexistent on Monday, extending a slowdown since tensions flared up last week. Even so, the Joint Maritime Information Center said the southern shipping lane coordinated by Oman remains available.

European natural gas also rose on concern the escalation could hamper shipments. Futures added as much as 2.7% after gaining almost 8% last week.  

The re-escalation has dimmed prospects for diplomacy. Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared the “era of one-sided deals is OVER,” while Tehran insisted Washington must honor commitments on Hormuz and the normalization of its oil exports before talks can resume. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, declared the ceasefire “OVER” but said the US remained willing to continue negotiations.

The attack on the Kuwaiti drilling facility at the weekend marked the first direct strike on energy infrastructure in weeks, and if the conflict expanded to target energy infrastructure more broadly, oil could head to $100, Kavonic said. 

In the past month, Persian Gulf producers including the United Arab Emirates marketed additional crude after the interim agreement eased concerns over exports. The Emiratis, in particular, were among the most successful in getting barrels out using shuttle tankers that sail dark, or with transponders off.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Washington’s July 7 revocation of the sanctions waiver covering Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, followed by its largest strikes on Iran since the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding was signed and the Iranian strikes on US military sites in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait over the weekend, has brought the conflict back to a familiar crossroads: renewed military escalation or another reluctant attempt at diplomacy.

Iran, which has been firing at vessels attempting to cross Hormuz through Oman’s territorial waters in a bid to assert its exclusive oversight of the waterway as it reopened to commercial traffic, had vowed a “crushing response” to the latest US strikes.

A framework for restoring stability

The latest turn of events should alarm markets but not surprise them.

The MoU was never a robust framework for restoring stability after more than three months of a conflict, during which a stubborn chasm between Washington and Tehran on key issues repeatedly frustrated diplomacy.

The final product was a poor attempt at rapprochement between two adversaries whose differences had not really been bridged. It was a vaguely worded 14-point document that was sufficient to pause the war, but not to dependably reopen the world’s most important oil chokepoint – a task that demands clarity, consistency and confidence.

The market’s belief that Hormuz was on a steady path back to normality proved both premature and misplaced. The latest events have merely confirmed what the agreement always implied: reopening the Strait would prove considerably harder than reopening diplomacy.

The seeds of the latest crisis were sown in Point 5 of the MoU, which governs the reopening of the Strait. It required Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” and promised that Tehran would levy no charges for 60 days. But it failed to answer the most important question: who controls shipping through Hormuz during the interim period?

Centre of the new crisis

That omission has now become the centre of the crisis.

Two competing transit regimes have emerged. The US, Oman and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) support a southern corridor adjoining Omani waters for commercial shipping. Iran insists that vessels should instead use a northern route through its territorial waters after obtaining clearance from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Washington rejects that position outright, arguing that Hormuz must revert to its pre-war regime of free navigation.

The international shipping, insurance and trading communities need a single, publicly understood set of rules. They need to know which lanes are safe, who is responsible for security, what legal regime applies and whether a transit will be treated as lawful by both sides. Instead, they were given rival interpretations of the same agreement.

Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU

Iran’s continued strikes on vessels using or approaching the US-backed Omani corridor signal that Tehran is attempting to establish facts on the water before any permanent governance regime is negotiated. Washington’s response — revoking the oil sanctions waiver and striking Iranian coastal sites — demonstrates with equal clarity that it is unwilling to accept Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU.

Whether the conflict escalates or diplomacy resumes, the market must now factor in a more complicated picture: the Strait may not be closed in the old sense, but nor will it be reliably open in the commercial sense.

Once all the stranded tankers have escaped and the prompt barrels have been absorbed, the market will face a new fundamental reality. If empty tankers remain reluctant to return, insurance stays prohibitively expensive and rival transit regimes persist, the Gulf export system may not fully normalise for many months to come.

Layer of uncertainty

The Treasury’s 10-day wind-down period for Iranian oil transactions adds another layer of uncertainty. Iranian crude was already facing cautious buyers unsure whether sanctions relief would survive beyond its initial 60-day window. That uncertainty has now been resolved in the most bearish way for Tehran and the most bullish way for crude.

Physical balances remain comfortable for now. But a prolonged disruption to Gulf exports would rapidly swing the market from abundance towards scarcity. Severely depleted commercial and strategic stockpiles around the world mean the protective buffers of the past four months are gone.

The next move belongs to Tehran. Markets will now focus on whether Iran attempts once again to choke off Hormuz or whether both sides, however reluctantly, return to diplomacy.

A clear definition of peace

If negotiations resume, the next agreement cannot simply stop the shooting. It must define the peace. That means a clear, unified and publicly communicated understanding of how Hormuz is to operate during the interim period — who governs transits, which corridors vessels should use, what role Oman and the IMO can play, when the international Traffic Separation Scheme channels are expected to be de-mined and reopened, and whether Iran has any recognised authority to clear or charge commercial shipping.

That would be only the first step towards repairing the MoU’s fault lines. More fundamental disputes — from Lebanon's security arrangements to Iran's nuclear programme — remain unresolved and will require far greater honesty, precision and political courage than the first attempt at rapprochement. Without that, any peace is likely to prove as fragile as the agreement that sought to deliver it.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called on the European Union to reconsider its opposition to new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic, arguing that the region could play a critical role in strengthening Europe’s long-term energy security.

Speaking in Brussels, IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol urged the European Commission to take “a very close look” at its opposition to new Arctic oil and gas exploration, arguing that Norway remains one of Europe’s most reliable energy partners.

“I support the Commission to give a very close look at this issue, because it is extremely important for the European energy security,” Dr Birol added.  

“The world needs every drop of oil from Norway,” Dr Birol said, describing the country as a trusted supplier that “will not use energy as a weapon.” 

The EU currently supports a moratorium on new Arctic drilling on environmental grounds, but the policy is under increasing scrutiny as Europe seeks to strengthen its energy resilience. 

Norway, which is not an EU member but is the bloc’s largest supplier of natural gas, has repeatedly called on Brussels to abandon its support for the ban.

Norway’s mature gas fields are expected to decline during the 2030s unless new discoveries are made beyond existing producing areas, increasing the importance of future Arctic exploration.

Environmental groups have criticised any move to relax restrictions on Arctic drilling, arguing that new projects could take more than a decade to begin production and would do little to address Europe’s immediate energy security challenges. 

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that. But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

- Jens Stoltenberg, Norwegian Finance Minister

Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said the recent disruption to global energy markets highlighted the importance of maintaining Norwegian oil and gas production.

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that,” he said. “But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

A new electrification strategy

In Europe’s increasingly complex energy strategy, the bloc is seeking secure and dependable fossil fuel supplies as it works to eliminate Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027. But at the same time, it is accelerating electrification and expanding renewable energy to cut emissions.

Draft proposals seen by Reuters show the European Commission plans to unveil a new electrification strategy on 17 July, which aim to reduce Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels after multiple geopolitical conflicts sharply increased oil and gas prices. 

Since late February, the war has added an estimated $57.1 billion to the EU’s oil and gas import bill, according to EU data.

The draft electrification strategy proposes setting a 2040 target for the minimum share of the EU’s overall energy consumption that should come from electricity. 

While no specific percentage has yet been included, the objective is to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to electricity across transport, buildings, and industry.

The strategy would support wider adoption of electric vehicles, encourage households to replace gas boilers with heat pumps, and promote the electrification of industrial processes by replacing fossil fuel-powered equipment with electric alternatives.

Financial and regulatory measures 

To help offset the high initial costs of sustainable energy technology, the Commission is exploring a variety of financial and regulatory measures.

These include exploring mandatory heat pump installations in public buildings through revised public procurement rules, stronger procurement targets for electric vehicles, and a framework allowing member states to reduce value-added tax (VAT) on household batteries, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

Brussels also plans to launch an EU funding auction later this year to support industrial projects that generate heat using electricity and renewable energy, alongside proposals to phase out fossil fuel subsidies to improve the competitiveness of electricity relative to oil and gas.

The draft strategy describes energy independence as a strategic priority, stating that “an energy-independent Union powered by clean, abundant, homegrown, cybersecure, and affordable energy is a matter of sovereignty” and calling for a “radical shift towards efficient electrification of demand.”

But this crowd had gathered for something else entirely — a chance to glimpse cutting-edge panel and battery technology from one of the world’s top solar manufacturers, China’s Jinko Solar Co.

Economies across Asia have been hit by soaring utility bills in the months since the war in the Middle East upended oil and gas markets, prompting many to rethink power supply. In the Philippines, households and businesses have embraced green alternatives, and created a welcome boon for Beijing’s solar producers  in the process.

It has become China’s single-biggest overseas market for solar panels for the first time this year, outpacing even success stories like Pakistan. Only the Netherlands, a hub for northwest Europe, imports more.

“Electricity bills here are increasing,” said Cesar Arriaga, who lives in the city’s suburbs and came along to learn about how to buy and install panels. “I like the Chinese products not only because they’re cheap, but because they’re technologically competitive.”

China is the source of the world’s most inexpensive and most advanced solar technology, producing about 80% of global supply. But it has also been producing far too much of a good thing — meaning new markets are vital for the industry’s survival.

China’s solar exports to the Philippines more than doubled in the first five months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to Trade Data Monitor. In March alone, imports jumped 262% year-on-year. Filipino buyers have spent more than half a billion dollars on Chinese panels so far in 2026.

Granted, some of that is down to suppliers front-loading shipments ahead of changes to Chinese export tax rebates. But analysts and industry insiders say the trend will prove a lasting one, even amid on-off tensions between the two countries, including disputes in the South China Sea.

One indicator is that demand has now expanded far beyond Manila into regional centers like Davao, where enthusiasts crammed the mall, fueling a leap in revenue. In 2025, Jinko’s sales to the Philippines were equivalent to nearly 1.5GW, handing it a market share of more than a quarter. In the first six months of this year, it has already shipped close to 1GW. The popularity of higher-end N-type modules, particularly effective in hot climates, have raised the company’s average selling price overseas and its profit margins.

“Based on the current pace, we expect a more pronounced market boom and demand change in the Philippines in the second half of this year,” Jinko said in response to Bloomberg queries.

That enthusiasm may well be enough to counter efforts by Manila to tighten control of imported solar equipment. Policymakers have proposed that solar systems and components should be certified by the country’s national standards body to ensure product safety, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported. Still, unlike the US and parts of Europe, where governments have imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels and modules to shield domestic manufacturers, the Philippines has shown little sign of pursuing broader trade barriers.

In large part, that is because both sides stand to benefit from the current boom. Import-dependent Philippines gains access to low-cost renewable technology which is easy to deploy even in an island nation, while Chinese manufacturers can tap a fast-growing export market.

“The Philippines has so much to gain by embracing solar: less pressure on retail electricity price rises, less imported gas and oil, and overall cheaper electricity for customers,” said veteran electricity analyst Dave Jones at energy think tank Ember. “Electricity prices are so high. With customers fearful that prices will rise further, this provides a firm impetus to act now.”

Chinese manufacturers also want to move quickly to tap overseas markets, especially if that means profits for an industry that has been mired in losses for years. While the Philippines remains relatively small compared to China’s behemoth domestic market, rising demand here — alongside other major importers like Pakistan — is providing an important outlet for excess capacity.

Other factors help. The Philippines has long been a key adopter of renewable power, ahead of many others in the Southeast Asian region, with a strong pipeline of wind and solar projects in development as it tries to keep up with expanding consumption. The country has also been active in encouraging foreign players to enter its clean-energy sector by allowing full foreign ownership and easing access to local financing.

“The Philippines is a key renewable market in Southeast Asia, driven by a clear structural need,” said Geoffrey Jahnke, chief operating officer at Peak Energy, which develops clean energy projects in Asia. Demand for electricity continues to rise, and the country is still exposed to imported fuel price volatility and needs more “stable, domestically supplied energy,” he said.

Rising electricity costs have provided a fresh impetus to clean up the grid, given most of that surge is directly linked to dependence on imported fossil fuels. Power prices in the Philippines have jumped at least 14% this year from last year, said Robert Liew, an analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The nation now has the costliest residential electricity price in Southeast Asia, and the second-highest commercial price, according to a May report published by Ember. 

To try to cushion the shock from Persian Gulf disruption, the government began offering low interest loans of up to 500,000 pesos ($8,124) for residential clean energy. It has also fast-tracked more than 30 renewable projects.

That means cheap Chinese solar panels are now a viable way for households to save money. Payback for a residential rooftop project can be as short as a little more than three years, down from four years in May 2025, according to Ember.

As a result, the industry is booming, as seen in Davao’s crowded mall, with exports to the Philippines smashing records in March. Average weekly rooftop solar installations have risen 170% since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late-February, according to New Energy Nexus. 

The only catch is that with customer inquiries surging 582%, demand is running ahead of what the market can physically deliver, held back by supply chain shortages and limited numbers of installers.

“The supply chain was not built to absorb a demand shock of this size,” New Energy Nexus said in an April report.

For producers like Jinko and rival Trina Solar Co., it is still an opportunity that cannot be passed up.

“The market is moving from buying panels as standalone components toward planning solar as part of a wider energy system,” Trina Solar, another Chinese manufacturer, said in response to Bloomberg queries. “We are confident in meeting this demand.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The procurement process is underway, with a preferred bidder expected to be selected before the vote, Energy Minister Simeon Brown said in an interview last week. Prices for LNG are forecast to continue to come down as new supply outside of New Zealand becomes available, he said. 

The South Pacific nation relies heavily on hydropower, which leaves it vulnerable to dry years when there is little rain or snow to fill the lakes. There were shortages of electricity and prices spiked in 2024 during one such period, and the government plans to have the shipboard import terminal and regasification plant running by 2028 to mitigate that risk. 

“Every four years we have a dry year,” Brown said, adding that dwindling domestic supplies mean the country needs to look overseas. “If we can’t get the gas out of the ground domestically, we’re going to need it somewhere else. We see it as an insurance against the dry year risk, it’s about resilience, it’s about reliability, and also about affordability.

The electricity companies, known as “gentailers” in New Zealand because they both generate and retail electricity, have to work out how they will pay for the plan, Brown emphasized. “We’ve said it very clearly, it’s their obligation to fund this, because it’s their dry year risk that they must manage.”

“We’re in commercial negotiations for the gentailers to run a commercial funding model for them to pay for it,” he said.

While the long-term solution to the question of energy reliability may include renewable options, Brown emphasized that the LNG import plan was the only solution that could be done quickly, and be in place in just a few years for when there is a repeat of the 2024 dry year. 

“We’re not prepared as a government to leave New Zealand in a position where we effectively have a deindustrialization of our country, because we don’t have the molecules to be able to create electrons to keep the lights on,” he said, criticizing the Labour government’s 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and lack of planning for the transition to a lower-carbon economy. 

“Gas is critical to the transition. It is a critical transition fuel to enable that transition in a smooth manner,” he said. “We’ve ended up with a very unsmooth transition, which is a direct result of the previous government’s policies.”

The global LNG market had been expected to move into a glut this year, however the shutdown of Qatar’s export plant, the world’s biggest, due to the war in Iran has tightened the outlook. The conflict has also highlighted the dangers of relying on energy from the Middle East.

New Zealand has now built up a substantial coal stockpile at the coal-fired power plant in Huntly in case there is a dry year before the LNG plant is available, Brown said, adding that this provides “a significant amount of additional resilience that we didn’t have going into 2024.”

The opposition Labour Party is opposed to the plan, and the question is likely to be hotly debated ahead of the election later this year. The party’s energy spokeswoman Megan Woods has called it a “knee jerk reaction” to waning gas supplies, which is “excessive and rushed, and rules out viable alternatives.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, the Joint Maritime Information Center said in a note. Describing the threat-level in the strait as still “severe,” it told mariners to expect radio communications with naval forces and be aware of a danger from mines.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced earlier Sunday it wouldn’t allow any vessels to pass the strait until foreign interference ends, accusing the US of seeking to create disruptions. 

American forces struck Iran for a third time in a week overnight, after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit nine nautical miles off the Omani coast, causing a fire and forcing the crew to abandon the vessel.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas once moved — has been central to US-Iran peace negotiations. A fresh barrage of assaults early Sunday that saw the Islamic Republic target at least five American allies in the region, including Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, are putting a ceasefire that began last month under extreme stress.

There was almost no visible traffic in the strait on Sunday, with only two oil products tankers seen approaching the waterway. 

Crew from the struck container ship were rescued by local authorities, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported, while India said one of its nationals who was onboard is missing.

The IRGC halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite a warning, according to Iran’s IRIB news agency. The Fars agency also reported Iranian forces had “struck and halted a second non-compliant vessel,” though it didn’t provide further details.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Once fully completed in 2028, the two Russian-designed reactors at the Rooppur facility will be able to supply as much as 15% of the country’s electricity. The project is an audacious bet that nuclear power can meet the needs of an industrializing economy without breaking the bank, and other developing nations across the world will be watching closely.

Atomic power has undergone a renaissance over the last few years. While safety risks and heavy cost overruns saw the world sour on nuclear, especially after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011, those concerns are now being surpassed by the need to decarbonize and meet a surge in power demand from artificial intelligence and the electrification of transport fleets.

For developing nations like Bangladesh, atomic energy is less about data centers and more to do with weaning their economies off fossil fuels and reducing their vulnerability to external shocks like the Iran war. With oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf upended by the conflict, long lines at filling stations became routine, homes in the countryside had to cope with hours of daily blackouts, and factory output suffered. 

“The recent geopolitical conflicts — Iran and Russia-Ukraine — have shown that a scarcity of resources hurts poorer countries more than rich ones,” said R. Srikanth, who heads the energy, environment and climate change program at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru in India. “That strengthens the case for nuclear in emerging economies.”

The 2.4 gigawatt project has been more than a decade in the making, a period marked by a series of upheavals including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war. Those events are an endorsement of Bangladesh’s strategy of reducing its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, but they’ve also pushed Rooppur beyond its original timeline of commissioning the first unit by 2023.

The project has been inherited by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who came to power in elections in February, and chimes with his government’s efforts to revive growth after years of dictatorship came to an end in 2024. 

The first reactor is now expected to become fully operational by the start of 2027, with the second one to follow a year later, according to Md. Zahedul Hassan, managing director at Nuclear Power Plant Co. Bangladesh Ltd., the facility’s operator.

Like other developing economies, though, Bangladesh has found that nuclear projects come with expanding costs. Under the main contract with Russian state-owned company Rosatom, the plant will cost around $12.65 billion, including the first few years’ fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. But in local-currency terms, that cost has now increased by almost a quarter since the project was approved a decade ago, thanks to a sharp weakening of the Bangladeshi taka against the dollar.

“The delay has had a massive financial implication for Bangladesh,” said Md. Shafiqul Islam, a professor of nuclear engineering at Dhaka University. “A timely completion would have not only avoided this massive cost escalation but would have also helped us trim our fossil fuel import bill.” 

Plant operator Hassan, while declining to give details on the estimated cost of generation, is adamant that it will be value for money for the country. 

“If you assess from the point of view of assurance of long-term supplies, safeguards against supply chain issues as well as the cost of generation, it’s very much competitive,” he said. 

Bangladesh is now exploring small modular reactors as a longer-term hedge against energy shocks and is in early talks with suppliers including Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Chinese manufacturers, according to Power and Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood.

“The government is looking at plants generating 300 to 400 megawatts, small enough to be built along riverbanks and deployed faster than conventional reactors,” he said. “We will not go for large-scale plants anymore because there are huge liabilities.”

Even the most committed nations will have to deal with the high upfront capital outlay, long construction times, and the risk of delays that increase costs, until new technologies, such as SMRs, mature. The benefits of nuclear power is that it’s low-carbon, reliable and continuous, making it an ideal baseload electricity source to pair with intermittent renewables, like solar and wind, for the energy transition.

“The Rooppur plant will ensure Bangladesh doesn’t need to build any new baseload capacity in the next five to seven years,” said Shafiqul Alam, the lead Bangladesh analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “That’s going to provide the opportunity to accelerate renewables installations and invest in grid modernization.”  

Growing confidence in the country’s abilities, evident from the visitors posing for selfies in front of the plant, has been instrumental in gathering public support for the Rooppur project, Dhaka University’s Islam said. 

Other developing nations may also be driven by similar sentiments, with the perception of modernity about nuclear energy adding to the hype around it, according to Toby Dalton, a senior fellow and co-director for the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

He cautioned that governments need to first put in place all the elements needed to run a nuclear plant sustainably, including a competent workforce, a credible and independent regulator, broad public approval, and mechanisms for handling spent fuel. 

“I worry that the hype that’s been built around nuclear may push countries to make some bad choices,” Dalton said. “I don’t think any developing economy wants to be a laboratory for a technology that hasn’t been proven and demonstrated elsewhere.” 

Another catch is the dearth of options when it comes to buying the technology, a deal that comes with long-term ties. The global nuclear market is controlled by a handful of suppliers, including the US, Russia, China, France and South Korea, that use a limited number of reactor technologies. 

China and Russia dominate the world’s 80 reactors under-construction, most of which are in Asia, data from the World Nuclear Association show. The two countries have aggressively pushed their existing technologies — as well as those years away from maturity — to drive interest and widen their geopolitical influence.

“For developing economies, nuclear power is also a tool for long-term national development, strengthening energy security, driving industrialization and building advanced engineering and scientific expertise domestically,” Russia’s Rosatom said in an emailed response to questions.

The challenge of high capital costs is addressed by the Russian model that provides credit to customers so the upfront costs can be paid back over 20 to 25 years, said Srikanth, at the Institute for Advanced Studies.

For Bangladesh, developments in its South Asian neighborhood have added to the appeal of nuclear. 

India has a plan to expand atomic power capacity eleven-fold to 100 gigawatts by 2047, with Rosatom building four 1-gigawatt reactors at Kudankulam, a small fishing town near the southernmost tip of the country. In Pakistan, China has supplied six reactors that constitute nearly 3.3 gigawatts of generation capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association.

“The Rooppur project has added a sense of pride among local residents,” said Islam, from Dhaka University. “They now think if India and Pakistan can do it, so can we.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In the early stages of the Iran war, concerns over local fuel availability prompted China to curb sales of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to overseas customers. Asia’s top crude consumer later eased those rules, including by granting more export permits earlier this month.

Now a flare-up in violence — along with a US move to revoke a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil — threatens an interim US-Iran peace deal and is heightening Beijing’s fears of renewed interruptions to crude and fuel supply, the people said, asking not to be identified as discussions aren’t public. 

At least two major refineries have been asked to maintain or increase run rates, the people said, despite China’s elevated gasoline and diesel inventories and a structural slowdown in consumption of both.

Even prior to the conflict, Beijing maintained strict control of oil-product shipments via a quota system. Export quotas for July won’t be revised, one of the people said.

One consequence of higher run rates, however, will be additional pressure on regional refining margins, with the spread between Asian gasoline prices and Dubai crude already falling to its lowest level since late March.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, responsible for economic planning, didn’t immediately reply to Bloomberg queries sent outside of regular working hours.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“In the short term, it’s possible” that the energy crisis worsens, Descalzi said in an interview published on Saturday, while warning that Europe will remain heavily dependent on US liquefied natural gas to rebuild storage before winter. 

Competition for oil and gas is set to intensify as inventories shrink, with Europe in need to buy about 35 billion cubic meters of LNG to reach its 80% storage target before winter, he said. Italy is ahead of European peers, with gas stockpiles already at about 70% of capacity, he added.

Europe should use the “unprecedented succession of crises” — from the Covid-19 pandemic to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict involving Iran — as a starting point to address energy security, Descalzi said.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has marked a turning point for global energy security, with the risk of disruptions at strategic shipping chokepoints likely to raise transport and financing costs as well as insurance premiums, he said, adding that there is now a “before and after Hormuz.”

Europe should diversify energy sources and supplier nations while continuing to invest in hydrocarbons alongside renewables, carbon capture, biofuels and nuclear power, Descalzi said. He identified North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia as key regions for future supply diversification.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to settle near $71 a barrel, but still notched a weekly gain of roughly 4%. Brent futures also fell to close near $76 a barrel. 

The two sides are continuing technical discussions, according to a US official, after US forces’ two-day campaign against targets in the Islamic Republic had cast doubt on the prospect. A Qatari delegation arrived in Iran, according to its semi-official Tasnim news agency.

The commodity briefly pared losses, before reversing, in a knee-jerk reaction after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that “in no uncertain terms... the Cease Fire is OVER!” He also confirmed that talks between the warring sides are set to continue. 

The International Energy Agency warned in a report on Friday that renewed hostilities between the two adversaries risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later this year.

There were signs of resilience in the region’s energy flows. The United Arab Emirates boosted crude oil production to an all-time high last month, the most compelling evidence yet of how Abu Dhabi has responded more boldly than any of its Persian Gulf neighbors to the war.

“Overall, the price action is consistent with the narrative that the market doesn’t think the hostilities are going to last,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “On the flip side, oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are down significantly from last week while there are signs that China may be increasing runs.”

“But the picture after the war ends looks increasingly bleak when examining balances,” he added.

Observed transits through Hormuz have been reduced substantially by the hostilities. Traders will be monitoring output and sales from Persian Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, which is due to issue monthly allocations to customers shortly. 

Visible traffic in Hormuz remained thin after appearing to grind to a near halt on Thursday, according to ship-tracking data. At least two oil supertankers, both controlled by the same company, appeared to cross the waterway Friday on a US protected route.

Crude’s volatile week is reflected in shifts in WTI’s prompt spread, which tracks the difference between its two nearest contracts. The spread has flipped from contango, which signals oversupply, to backwardation, which denotes the opposite.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Mexican finance officials are exploring the possibility of creating an umbrella-financing package for renewable-energy projects that could be supported by more than $4 billion from development bank Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Publicos, the bank’s head said.

The government is planning to invite more private sector bids to partner with the Comision Federal de Electricidad for renewable energy and storage projects given the interest from global investors in the recent, first tender of such projects by the government, said Jorge Mendoza, the chief executive officer of the bank known as Banobras.

Mexico’s Finance Ministry and Banobras are weighing options such as creating a single vehicle to finance multiple projects, Mendoza said, adding that the government is currently in talks with institutional investors, Mexican pension funds and banks to put together financing.

Mendoza said he expected most of the financing would lined up over the next 12 months, with a chunk done by December this year.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been ramping up infrastructure projects in the country. Still, plans have been sluggish at times and a robust pipeline of projects hasn’t fully materialized.

Mendoza said the government is now set to announce more power, oil, highway and ports projects over the next six months, benefiting from the country’s push to develop new models for public-private investment efforts.

“Everything that we worked for over the last year-and-a-half, it’s going to start rolling right now,” Mendoza said in an interview from the bank’s headquarters in Mexico City. “We need to make sure that whoever wins, or partners up with the government, has the financing capacity to do so.”

Investors have been putting more money into Mexico’s struggling electricity sector after the government clarified rules earlier this year. Sheinbaum has pivoted toward welcoming private investment in power after the previous administration shuttered an opening in the state-run energy sector.

Banobras will be able to fund as much as 80 billion pesos ($4.6 billion), funneling that money either directly into projects or through the umbrella facility that’s under consideration, Mendoza said. The financing would back the roughly three dozen projects that were awarded last month to 18 companies. Most of those were for solar-energy ventures.

Mendoza said that an umbrella vehicle would reduce costs and streamline due diligence, by piggybacking on the government’s own evaluation of projects. The umbrella vehicle could combine funds from the government, banks and institutional investors, he said. 

The group could consider cheaper financing for those sourcing materials, such as machinery or components, locally to help incentivize companies to use Mexican supply chains, he said. 

Mendoza also said that Banobras was working with Mexico’s national infrastructure fund, or Fonadin, on 18 highway projects that are estimated to cost around 212 billion pesos. He said he expected to award 13 of those projects before the end of the year, with the others following in the first six months of 2027. 

The country has seen more interest in public-private projects than purely private energy ventures, he said.

“Private players are seeing it as a way to mitigate risks — regulation risk, judicial risk — if you partner up with the government,” he said. 

Mendoza said major global funds were seeing past the noise of US trade talks and geopolitical risks that have weighed on investments. There had been a drought of projects under the past administration, and now the new efforts by the government to accommodate private capital is drawing major investors back.

“They want to take the opportunity of doing things now before the risks disappear,” Mendoza said. “I’m sure that Mexico is going to end up in a much better place than many other countries in terms of trade with the US, regional integration and competitiveness. And once there’s no risks, then there’s going to be many more players coming into Mexico and then you lose the timing and advantage of being early.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Nissos Kea popped up inside the Gulf several hours after its Automatic Identification System signal stopped when it approaching the waterway while the Nissos Heraclea made the opposite move, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The two very large crude carriers are run by Piraeus, Greece-based Kyklades Maritime Corp. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The level of observable oil tanker traffic through the strait has slowed in the past 24 hours, after the US and Iran traded missile and drone strikes while an interim peace deal teeters on the edge of collapse. A growing number of tankers had been shuttling through Hormuz ‘dark,’ prior to the renewed hostilities and it’s unclear what impact the latest flare up has had.

Both tankers appear to be engaged in ferrying crude from Qatar, with one loading at the Al Shaheen field and the other appearing to be heading in the direction of Halul Island, the tracking data show. Neither ship broadcast a destination while in the Gulf, although both kept their transponders on for much of their time in the region.

Partial position data from the inbound Greek ship as it crossed Hormuz suggest that it most likely used the southern route through the waterway, hugging the Omani coastline. The outbound carrier was also relatively close to the Oman side before it was going into Hormuz. 

Separately, the US dismissed Iranian claims that only Tehran-designated routes are permitted. 

In a post on social media late Thursday, Central Command said that US forces had helped to facilitate the transit of 380 million barrels since early May. A start date of May 1 would imply a flow rate of 5.4 million barrels a day. Adding Iranian flows would take the figure to well over 6 million barrels a day. 

Several ships using the Omani foute in recent days have come under attack from Iran, with Tehran seeking to limit traffic to a northerly route passing through its waters.

The only supertanker observed taking that path through the strait in the past 24 hours had previously loaded its cargo at Iran’s own Kharg Island terminal in the northern Gulf. It is the most recent of a wave of Iran-linked supertankers seen heading toward Asia from Iran’s ports over the past several days.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The country pumped 4.1 million barrels a day on average in June, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. That surpasses the peak daily output 4 million a day in 2020 when it had boosted supply during a brief price war over OPEC+ policy, and follows its exit from the group earlier this year.

The UAE’s bold tactics since the war began are becoming increasingly apparent, from using its own large fleet to hiring extra ships controlled by Sinokor Group, a South Korean firm that now runs the world’s largest fleet of oil supertankers. Many of the vessels have operated “dark,” with their digital transponders turned off to get barrels out of the Persian Gulf unseen. 

The vigorous recovery, most of which came before a spate of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz this week, underlines the country’s unshackling from limits set by the Organization of the the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil traders have been keeping close watch on how high the UAE might take it supply after it left the producer group at the end of April.

The country had already restored its exports to pre-war levels last month, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, was also getting close as it resumed shipments from the key Ras Tanura terminal inside the Persian Gulf.

The rebounding flows, along with the precarious peace agreement between Washington and Tehran that had allowed a surge of tankers to pass through Hormuz, had helped flip world markets from tightness to signs of oversupply in key regions and erased the war-time rally in crude prices. 

The recovery picture was muddied on Wednesday, however, when President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire effectively void after the two sides traded hostilities in the region. US forces struck sites in Iran for two consecutive days, and Tehran fired upon Bahrain and Kuwait. Brent futures topped $80 a barrel earlier this week, but eased to near $76 a barrel on Friday.

The Gulf’s other major producers also increased output last month, though fell short of pre-war levels, according to the IEA. Saudi Arabia pumped 7.3 million barrels a day in June, 900,000 a day higher that the previous month. Kuwait’s increased to 1.4 million barrels a day on average and Iraq’s to 2 million a day.   

Even as crude flows have risen, refinery activity in the Gulf has been more sluggish to respond, with product exports still less than half the levels prior to the conflict, the IEA said.

(Updates with OPEC context in the fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

State-controlled NTPC Ltd. issued a tender to appoint consultants that will help identify potential assets in uranium-mining countries including Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and South Africa, according to documents posted on its tender website. Bids are due July 16.

The search for uranium marks the latest step in India’s ambition to grow atomic power capacity more than elevenfold by 2047, part of a broader push to decarbonize an economy that’s driven largely by coal and other fossil fuels. NTPC aims to build around 30% of the country’s 100-gigawatt target.

In December, the Indian parliament passed a law that will end a decades-old state monopoly in atomic power generation and open the industry up to private firms. The new legislation also envisages sweeping changes to the country’s liability provisions that had spooked investors.

“The scale of planned capacity addition necessitates securing a sustainable fuel supply of uranium,” NTPC said in the bid document. “Considering the limitations of domestic fuel and mining reserves, overseas exploration and the acquisition of uranium mines are required.”

At present, India relies on another state-controlled company – Uranium Corp. of India – for domestic supplies of the metal. The country’s only producer mines mainly in the states of Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh.

New Delhi has already been diversifying its overseas supplies, agreeing during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Melbourne this week to import uranium from Australia. India also buys the atomic mineral from Uzbekistan and Russia, while shipments from Canadian miner Cameco Corp. are due to begin next year.

Global uranium mining is relatively concentrated, with the top five producers accounting for almost 70% of the world’s output in 2024, according to the World Nuclear Association. Kazakhstan’s NAC Kazatomprom was the biggest producer in that year, followed by Cameco.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The board of the country’s largest oil-and-gas producer gave the green light to add 1.75 million tons of capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka, to national crude reserves, according to a filing. The cost and timeline weren’t given.

When complete, the project will increase holdings managed by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd., the state-owned entity that oversees the stockpiles. At present, Indian Strategic has underground caverns at three sites on the east and west coasts that total 5.33 million tons. In addition, two more sites are being built to add a further 6.5 million tons of space.

India is a major importer of crude oil and natural gas from the Gulf region, and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war triggered an energy crisis, as importers were forced to look for alternatives. ONGC is the first government-owned company to invest its own funds to build out strategic stockpiles, with state-owned refiners and oil producers previously building only commercial storage.

The new project is of “national importance,” ONGC said in the filing on Friday, adding that it would also develop associated facilities at the site in accordance with directives from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

The government wants reserves of crude, and liquefied natural and petroleum gas, to be large enough to meet as much as a month of domestic demand. To that end, the authorities have backed public-private partnerships to reduce the cost burden for the state, while also asking state-run producers and refiners to expand commercial reserves, and help build out strategic stockpiles.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., an ONGC subsidiary, operates a 300,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Karnataka state, and ONGC may use the new caverns in conjunction with MRPL for storage. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. — the United Arab Emirates’ largest oil company — is among companies that have leased space in the existing caverns in Mangalore.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Longi Green Energy Technology Co.’s facility in Shaanxi province is now operational, marking “a key milestone in the large-scale implementation of its next-generation cell technology,” the company said in a statement on Thursday.

The move follows a spike in silver prices to a record above $121 an ounce in January, nearly triple their level of a year earlier, on a confluence of bullish factors. As one of the world’s largest consumers of the metal, accounting for 17% of global demand last year, the solar industry has been racing to cut costs by turning to alternatives.

Copper, like silver, is prized for its conductivity. And while silver has now retreated below $60 an ounce, the red metal, which has even wider applications in the energy transition, has forged its own all-time highs, climbing above $14,000 a ton in May. 

As well as bullish forecasts for demand, the copper market is reacting to a shortage of ore worldwide, highlighting the potential pitfalls of switching materials when prices are so volatile.

Longi said it was able to get its new plant up and running within three months and that the Alloy Contact Matrix cells it produces are more efficient.

But the launch of the new facility still represents an expansion in a sector already struggling with persistent overcapacity and heavy losses. The industry’s efforts to curb excess supply have had only a limited effect, and authorities recently imposed tighter product standards in a bid to improve energy use and efficiency. 

On the Wire

China’s reflationary momentum showed signs of stalling in June, a reminder that the outlook for domestic prices is fragile as the economy emerges from deflation after an easing of tensions over Iran led to a pullback in commodity costs.

China’s central bank acknowledged the economy is becoming more unbalanced as the boom in artificial intelligence deepens a divide in growth between sectors, though it largely reiterated its existing policy stance.

China’s export-driven industrial momentum likely failed to offset weak domestic demand in the second quarter, said Bloomberg Economics, which sees GDP growth slipping below the low end of its 4.5%–5.0% target for 2026.

China purchased the largest amount of US soybeans since November, extending a wave of buying as agricultural trade between the world’s two largest economies gathers pace.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Thursday, July 9

• China’s inflation data for June, 09:30
• China to release June aggregate finance & money supply data by July 15
• Asia Climate Summit in HK, day 3
• Shanghai Platinum Week in Suzhou

Friday, July 10

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
• Shanghai Platinum Week in Suzhou

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Gulf crude production in June was still about 10.5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels, according to Goldman estimates. “While Middle Eastern producers have started reopening their shut-in wells over the last month, Hormuz disruptions could slow down the production recovery,” analysts including Yulia Zhetkova Grigsby said in a July 8 note.

The global energy market has been jolted this week by a resurgence in the conflict between Washington and Tehran, pushing Brent crude futures briefly back above $80 a barrel. Ship traffic through the strait has almost halted after US and Iran traded attacks for a second day, testing a fragile peace deal, which followed a spate of strikes on shipping in the waterway.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran was over, while the US also revoked a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales. Still, negotiations with Iran may continue, he added.

“The recent attacks on tankers highlight still elevated risks of crossing, and shippers may hesitate to cross under the currently unclear ceasefire status, weighing on near-term Hormuz flows,” the analysts said.

Goldman estimates that oil flows through the Gulf have already retreated closer to 70% of normal following the recent attacks on tankers, after having recovered earlier to more than 80% of pre-war flows within the first 10 days after the reopening of Hormuz.

At present, the risks for Gulf flows and prices are two-sided, it said. Shipments are expected to recover by the end of July if the 60-day negotiations continued, along with security reassurances for shippers and a fresh waiver for Tehran’s crude sales, but may drop further if the negotiations fail and attacks on tankers escalate.

Last month, Goldman Sachs was among banks reducing its forecasts for oil prices as flows through Hormuz picked up. Its analysts have also warned of the potential for a crude glut to reappear.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The agreement was announced during the visit of H.E. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, and Executive Chairman of XRG, to Japan, where he is leading a delegation for meetings with senior government officials and business leaders aimed at deepening bilateral energy cooperation.

The deal is the first long-term LNG supply agreement announced since ADNOC and XRG launched their integrated global LNG marketing and trading platform earlier this week. 

Growing bilateral ties

The agreement also reinforces the strategic relationship between ADNOC and INPEX, which has been an upstream partner in Abu Dhabi for decades through participating interests in several offshore and onshore concessions. The supply deal supports INPEX Vision 2035, under which the Japanese company aims to expand and diversify its LNG portfolio to provide customers with greater supply flexibility.

The LNG will be sourced primarily from the Ruwais LNG project, currently under development in Al Ruwais Industrial City in Abu Dhabi. Commercial operations are expected to begin in 2028.

The project is a key component of ADNOC’s global LNG growth strategy. To date, around 90% of the facility’s planned 9.6 mtpa production capacity has already been committed to international customers through long-term agreements across Asia and Europe, underlining strong market demand for the project’s future output.

Once operational, the Ruwais LNG plant will become the first LNG export facility in the Middle East and Africa to operate using clean power. 

ADNOC said the plant will be among the world’s lowest-carbon intensity LNG facilities, using AI and advanced digital technologies to improve operational efficiency, enhance safety, and reduce emissions.

The project consists of two liquefaction trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 mtpa, giving a combined production capacity of 9.6 mtpa.

“This SPA with INPEX marks the first long-term LNG agreement announced following the launch of ADNOC and XRG’s integrated global LNG marketing and trading platform, demonstrating how we are bringing more LNG molecules, greater market access and enhanced commercial flexibility to our customers,” said Nasser Al Muhairi, Acting CEO of ADNOC Downstream Industry, Marketing & Trading and Chairman of Ruwais LNG.

He said the agreement builds on ADNOC’s decades-long energy relationship with Japan while advancing the commercialisation of the Ruwais LNG project.

“As ADNOC and XRG target 47 mtpa of combined marketable LNG by 2035, Ruwais LNG will be a key source of reliable, flexible and lower-carbon supply for customers in Asia and around the world,” Al Muhairi added.

ADNOC Gas announced in November 2024 that it expects to acquire ADNOC’s 60% stake in the Ruwais LNG project at cost, estimated at approximately $5 billion, in 2028. 

Upon completion, the acquisition would more than double ADNOC Gas’ operated LNG production capacity to around 15 mtpa. 

Two oil tankers made their way into the Persian Gulf through Hormuz overnight using a route close to Oman’s coastline, while another headed out by sailing close to Iran. A third ship carrying about two million barrels of crude u-turned midway through a transit along the waterway and re-entered the Persian Gulf. Visible liquefied natural gas traffic has largely ground to a halt.

Global financial markets have a renewed focus on energy flows through Hormuz after President Trump said earlier on Wednesday that he considers the US’s ceasefire deal with Iran to be over. Before the Iran war, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transited Hormuz. Western navies said on Tuesday they expected traffic volumes to drop in the coming days after recent Iranian attacks.

Tracking shipments through the strait is complicated by the fact many vessels are crossing in convoys for security purposes, meaning flows can be lumpy. Millions of barrels a day of oil were also crossing on ships with their satellite signals switched off prior to the deal, another factor muddying the true level of traffic. 

Several tankers were seen beginning or completing Hormuz crossings just hours after three vessels came under attack on Tuesday — the largest number of incidents since an interim US-Iran peace deal came into effect last month. 

Those incidents included attacks on a Saudi supertanker, a Qatari LNG carrier and a ship owned by Sinokor Group, the world’s largest owner of very large crude carriers. It was unclear how the attacks had impacted each company’s approach to Hormuz. 

The US subsequently conducted airstrikes on Iran, in retaliation for the attacks, and scrapped a waiver that had temporarily allowed the sale of Iranian crude. 

“Shipping is considering the latest developments,” said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group. “Ships are turning around or opting to use the PGSA route,” he said, referring to the path operated by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

In the strait, the prospect of fresh strikes could set back a revival of traffic. Already, shipowners are increasingly having to weigh not only whether to cross, but which route to choose, for fear of angering one side or the other.

A corridor that hugs the Omani coast is supported by the US military, but has increasingly come under attack by Iran as it continues to assert its dominance of the waterway. Tehran said at the UN’s shipping body that it has the right to control parts of Hormuz.

The other option is a path that goes closer to Iran’s coast, which requires the country’s approval. That exposes those who use it to compliance and sanctions risks.

U-turns have become increasingly common as shipowners grapple with a changing situation and fluctuating Iranian demands, with some resuming their journeys along the Tehran-approved route. The Lila Vadinar, which U-turned in Hormuz on Wednesday, had entered the Persian Gulf late June and picked up a cargo of Kuwaiti crude, before attempting to leave earlier in the day. 

“The Hormuz reopening story looks more fragile,” Clarksons Securities analysts including Frode Morkedal said in a note. “We do not see a full closure of the Strait as the base case, as both sides have incentives to avoid a broader oil shock and keep the wider framework alive.” 

(Updates throughout with details of latest developments and vessels’ movements.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The world may have as much as 535 gigawatts of installed nuclear power by 2036, up from 372 last year, according to a report Wednesday from BloombergNEF. China had 59 gigawatts of reactors under construction at the end of 2025 and is on track to reach a total of 102 by the end of the decade, a figure that would propel it past the US to become the world’s biggest nuclear nation.

The industry is benefiting from several key trends. The international effort to rein in climate change is boosting demand for carbon-free power from reactors. At the same time, electricity demand is surging, driven by industrial users, increasingly electrified homes, and power-hungry data centers. Meanwhile, rising social acceptance of nuclear power is pushing utilities and governments around the world to reconsider policies that have hindered development. 

Capacity growth will likely be tempered by slow regulatory processes that have historically dragged on new nuclear projects. In the US, where the technology is getting strong support from the Trump administration, there’s only one commercial plant under construction, though BNEF expects the pace to accelerate in the coming decade.

“Nuclear power has essentially been ‘running in place’ since the Fukushima disaster in 2011,” according to the report. “This status quo is set to change.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In its latest quarterly update published on Tuesday, the energy major said production from its Integrated Gas business is now expected to reach between 610,000 and 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) during the April-to-June period. This is up from previous guidance of 580,000 to 640,000 boed. Shell’s output was 909,000 boed in Q1 2026. 

The revised outlook comes after Shell continues to manage the aftermath of reduced volumes from Qatar following the regional conflict. Shell's forecast is in line with its LNG Outlook 2026 report, which found that global LNG demand would rise by 65% to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050. 

Increasing production

The company also increased its forecast for LNG liquefaction volumes to between 7.4 million and 7.8 million tonnes, compared with earlier guidance of 6.8 million to 7.4 million tonnes, reflecting stronger operational performance across its LNG portfolio.

Shell said trading results within its Integrated Gas division are expected to be “significantly higher” than in the first quarter, highlighting how increased volatility across global energy markets has boosted returns from its trading business. 

Meanwhile, trading in its Chemicals and Products division is expected to remain in line with the previous quarter’s performance.

Citi raised its second-quarter earnings-per-share forecast for the company by 13%, citing stronger trading performance alongside resilient chemicals and fuels marketing operations. 

Shell shares rose more than 3% following the update, outperforming the broader European energy sector.

Commodity prices also provided a supportive backdrop during the quarter. 

Brent crude averaged around $97 per barrel during the period, compared with $78 in the first quarter, while Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas contract averaged about €46 per megawatt-hour, up from approximately €40 per MWh in the previous quarter.

Shell expects improvements in the second quarter, forecasting a working capital inflow between $1 billion and 6 billion following an $11.2 billion outflow in the first quarter, reflecting extreme commodity price volatility.

Market challenges remain

The company also forecast higher indicative refining margins of over $20 per barrel and chemicals margins of around $240 per tonne, but noted that actual margins are projected to be lower due to continued market disruptions.

Despite the improved outlook, Shell continues to face operational issues in the region. 

Production at its Pearl gas-to-liquids facility in Qatar remains partially offline after an attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City damaged one of the plant’s two processing trains earlier this year. The company has previously said repairs could take around a year.

While geopolitical tensions continue to create operational risks, the Middle East remains a strategically important region for Shell, accounting for around 550,000 boed, or 20% of its global oil and gas production. Of this, 10% is linked to Qatar. 

The company has been among major energy firms like bp and TotalEnergies that have benefitted from sharp swings in crude oil and natural gas prices after the conflict involving Iran disrupted regional energy markets. 

Shell’s full outlook is expected to be published on 30 July. 

The platform brings together the marketing activities of ADNOC Gas and international investment company XRG with the trading capabilities of ADNOC Trading. 

The integrated commercial platform is designed to optimise the group’s growing LNG portfolio, improve shipping flexibility, and provide customers with greater access to supply. 

It will aid ADNOC Gas’s expanding production base, including volumes from the Ruwais LNG project, and support XRG’s international gas and infrastructure investments.

Growing global ambitions

ADNOC said the platform is targeting 47 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of combined marketable LNG by 2035, a level that would place it among the world’s leading LNG suppliers. 

The move also reinforces Abu Dhabi’s ambition to establish itself as a major global energy trading hub alongside established centres in Europe, Asia, and North America.

The launch comes as global LNG demand continues to rise, and is expected to reach almost 700 mtpa by 2050. Global LNG trade reached approximately 422 million tonnes in 2025.

“With LNG demand set to grow substantially, the world will need reliable, responsible and trusted suppliers at scale,” said H.E. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of ADNOC and Executive Chairman of XRG.

“This world-class, integrated commercial LNG platform brings together the full strength of ADNOC’s marketing, trading and shipping capabilities to create a single global hub in Abu Dhabi. It marks a step-change in scale, flexibility and optionality of our LNG marketing and trading platform and will further position ADNOC to meet the world’s growing demand for energy.”

Future supply will be strengthened by the Ruwais LNG project, which is expected to significantly expand the country’s export capacity.

The launch also complements XRG’s broader international gas strategy. The company has expanded its LNG footprint through investments across global supply chains, including upstream gas assets in Argentina and plans to increase exposure to the US natural gas market. 

The Al Rekayyat gas carrier was struck in the early hours of Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. Separately, a person familiar with the matter said that a Saudi crude oil tanker was damaged while leaving Hormuz, without providing further details, while a UK naval group issued a report of a third attack.

The crew of the Qatari gas carrier have abandoned ship, one person familiar with the matter said. It is anchored southeast of Limah, Oman, according to Pakistan’s Hydrographic service, which monitors shipping in the area.

Three separate attacks on ships would mark the highest number since the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal last month, underscoring the continued risks to ships crossing through Hormuz. Tehran has repeatedly said it won’t allow vessels to transit the waterway without its permission. Meanwhile, the US has continued to manage a shipping corridor along the Omani side of the strait, keeping ships away from Iranian waters.

A handful of ships transited Hormuz using both the Iranian and Omani routes on Tuesday. Oil prices rose as much as 3%, while European gas futures added as much as 6%. 

The Qatari vessel, owned by the nation’s state-owned shipping company Nakilat, is the first LNG tanker from the country to come under attack since the war began, and marks a significant setback for its efforts to revive exports after months of near-paralysis.

The incident comes at a delicate moment for diplomacy, with Qatar serving as a key intermediary in negotiations between the US and Iran over ending the conflict. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said Iran should cease all practices that harm regional security.

Any attacks involving Saudi oil tankers would also raise concerns in oil markets. While the kingdom can export some crude via its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, it still relies on Hormuz to fully restore flows to normal levels. Saudi ships have been among the slowest in Gulf nations to return to the waterway. Exports have remained uneven, occasionally nearing pre-war levels. 

The Saudi and Qatari vessels were transiting Hormuz without their transponders on, ship-tracking data show, a common measure to avoid attracting attention. 

QatarEnergy, Nakilat, Saudi tanker giant Bahri and the Saudi Energy Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The strike has already raised fresh concerns among shipowners. Al Areesh, another LNG tanker that loaded in Qatar and was headed out of the Gulf, appeared to turn before the strait on Tuesday before sailing in circles, according to shipping data. It had been signaling Pakistan’s Port Qasim as its destination.

Other traffic continued to flow, however. At least two Japan-linked supertankers were sailing through the strait on the Iran-approved route, together with a China-bound liquefied petroleum gas carrier. To the south, a convoy of at least six ships, including three very large crude carriers, appears to be approaching the Omani coastline on the way out of the Gulf.

Hormuz has been a focal point for all sides since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February, as shipowners assess the safety of the crossing in order to dispatch vessels in and out of the Gulf. Even after an interim peace deal signed last month, Tehran continues to seek to assert its dominance over the thoroughfare.

Traffic has improved since the agreement, but continues to face challenges and interruptions, as Iran periodically blocks transits on routes it has not approved, or attacks vessels. On Monday, a group of Japan-linked ships appeared to have transited the strait by hewing to an Iran-approved route. 

Still, there is as yet little clarity over a permanent solution to manage the chokepoint amid talks aimed at achieving a lasting peace.

The Iran-approved corridor along the north side of the strait has seen two-thirds of all transits in recent days, according to data from intelligence firm Kpler Ltd., with the rest crossing along the US-managed Oman route.

Out of the 25 ships that transited Hormuz on Monday alone, only three did so on the Omani side with their transponders on, the data show — despite an update from regional naval forces reminding shipowners that the US-managed Oman route remained available for use. 

“The continued use of different shipping lanes suggests that traffic through the strait remains operational, but is fragmented as shipowners adopt different routing strategies based on their individual risk assessments,” said Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

The attack came as President Donald Trump headed to a NATO leaders’ summit in Ankara, Turkey. The US war with Iran is expected to be a major topic of discussion, with Trump having expressed anger at several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for not doing more to help the US against the Islamic Republic.

Talks between the US and Iran were suspended as Tehran began a mass funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in late February. Qatar said the next meeting would be scheduled as soon as possible after the funeral ceremonies. Khamenei is scheduled to be buried in his hometown of Mashhad on July 9. 

(Updates with status of Qatari ship from second paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Series B funding, led by Prelude Ventures, will help the company scale its first commercial initiative, a 250-megawatt plant being built south of Oregon’s Newberry Volcano, Quaise said Tuesday. Capitalizing on the need for continuous carbon-free power for data centers, Quaise has already signed up a hyperscaler customer for the project’s first 50 megawatts, said Chief Executive Officer Carlos Araque. He declined to identify the customer.

For decades, geothermal was viewed as an expensive and hard-to-access energy source. But technological breakthroughs combined with a surge of AI-driven interest has resulted in the energy source experiencing a bit of a renaissance in recent years. In May, geothermal developer Fervo Energy Co. attracted almost $1.9 billion in a US initial public offering that priced above the marketed range, signaling renewed interest in a previously forgotten sector.

Araque said demand for reliable, always-available clean power has never been stronger, adding that Fervo’s IPO has boosted investor interest in the sector. But, he said, the electricity is still costly. “We can do a lot better than this.”

Houston-based Quaise has said it aims to lower geothermal costs by using a proprietary millimeter-wave drilling technology to access more energy with fewer wells by drilling deeper for hotter rocks. At greater depths, Quaise would replace a drill bit with an energy beam, essentially using microwaves to vaporize rock. The process is designed to reduce the downtime required for switching drill bits and the cost involved in replacing bits, making geothermal a more cost-competitive energy source.

To reach desired temperatures of 300C (572F) to 500C, Quaise will have to drill deeper than Fervo and other enhanced geothermal systems. So far, the company has reached depths of 500 meters at its site in Marble Falls, Texas, and it’s targeting 1,000 meters by the third quarter and 5,000 meters by the end of 2027. At the same time, Quaise plans to complete the first flow test at its commercial site in Oregon by the end of the year, a key step toward attracting money to finance the project.

The funds will cover the company’s program through the end of 2027, at which point it will pursue a Series C funding, Araque said. After that, it plans to follow the Fervo playbook and enter the public market, barring an acquisition or merger, he said.

Founded in 2018, Quaise is one of a number of companies attempting superhot rock geothermal. Competitors include Mazama Energy, which also is operating near Newberry Volcano.

(Adds information about company’s history in final paragraph. An earlier version corrected amount of fundraising and the drilling depth.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

That demand destruction has been evident in Asia in the first half, with consumers using less or switching to alternative fuels, while Europe also saw stronger renewables output, the IEA said in a quarterly report published Tuesday. Together with lower gas usage in the Middle East, that should push global demand down 0.5% this year, even as consumption rises in some regions. 

The Middle East conflict effectively cut off about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply, with key gas price benchmarks in Europe and Asia up between roughly 40% and 70% since the war began. Importers in places including India, Bangladesh and Vietnam — which previously expected to raise demand — have had to rethink their longer-term gas strategies and look for alternatives. 

“A prolonged supply shock would continue to progressively tighten the global LNG balance, heightening competition for cargoes and extending the prospect of weaker imports across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins,” the IEA said.

While traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz improved since the US and Iran struck an interim peace deal last month, there’s still little clarity over a lasting solution to manage the chokepoint. Fresh attacks on shipping in and around the strait have also tested the truce and highlighted the continued risks to vessels.

Strong growth in new LNG supply, including in the US, partially offset the decline in Gulf deliveries through June, but any delays in the recovery of Middle Eastern exports could tip the global market into the first annual drop in supply since 2012, the IEA said. Otherwise, global LNG supply should remain steady this year, compared with previously expected growth.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

XTX Ventures, the investment arm from Alex Gerko’s algorithmic trading firm XTX Markets Ltd, led the financing round with London-based firm East X Ventures. The deal gives the three year-old energy firm a valuation of €2.4 billion, Proxima Fusion said on Tuesday. 

It’s a key part of the company’s plans to build an energy facility on a decommissioned RWE nuclear power site in Bavaria. In February, Proxima Fusion announced that the demonstrator for this plant, called Alpha, would cost €2 billion, with the company pledging to cover a fifth of the costs and the federal state of Bavaria committing a similar amount.

Francesco Sciortino, Proxima Fusion’s chief executive, said his Munich-based startup expects the remainder of the funds to come from Germany’s federal government and the European Union. “We’ve done what we promised to do,” he said in an interview. “Obviously, we think this a historic opportunity for Germany, for Europe.”

Germany turned against nuclear power following the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan, shutting down the final German reactors by 2023. Nuclear fusion, which promises to harness the same process that powers the sun to offer abundant, emissions-free electricity, remains an experimental technology. There are currently no commercial fusion plants.

Yet the field is drawing increased interest as tech companies scour the globe for future sources to power data centers. In 2025, Google agreed to purchase 200 megawatts of power from Commonwealth Fusion Systems, an American company developing fusion energy that Google has backed. 

The internet giant joined as a strategic investor in Proxima Fusion, but the companies don’t have any set plans around data centers, according to Sciortino. He declined to say how much Google invested. RWE invested €25 million, the company said in a press release on Tuesday.

Sciortino said around €150 million of the newest financing round came from its two investment leads, while existing investors added a similar amount. 

Proxima Fusion last raised funds in 2025, in a €130 million round, and said it has secured more than €650 million to date, including €95 million in public grants. KfW Capital, an investment division of Germany’s state bank, and the European Union’s EIC Fund also contributed to the new financing round. Proxima Fusion said more than 90% of its investors are European.

Its technology is centered on a device called a stellarator, a twisted donut-shaped chamber that uses powerful magnets to contain the super hot gas, or plasma, designed to create nuclear reactions. Sciortino called the approach more stable than others, such as the large tokamak design or newer methods using lasers.

With its latest funding round, Proxima Fusion — which has offices in Munich, Zurich and Oxford — describes itself as the “best-funded” nuclear fusion company in Europe. However, it has less capital than US competitors, including Commonwealth, which has raised almost $3 billion from investors, and Helion Energy Inc, a startup backed by Sam Altman. 

But Sciortino argued that these rivals were formed years before his. “We are faster than anyone else,” he said. “And Europeans should celebrate that for once.” 

(Added RWE’s investment in seventh paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.