In a document released Monday titled “Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age: Ideas to Keep People First,” OpenAI proposed a range of policies related to AI “superintelligence” — often referred to as software that can outperform humans at all kinds of tasks, but which does not currently exist. 

Many of the proposals are tied to social change driven by AI, which some fear could lead to widespread job losses. The company advocates for a public wealth fund that will distribute cash to citizens, giving them “a stake in AI-driven economic growth.” It proposes finding a way to let people share in efficiency gains driven by AI — including by incentivizing employers to experiment with four-day work weeks, as long as workers’ output doesn’t fall. And it suggests actively measuring how AI affects wages and unemployment — and then, once “these metrics exceed pre-defined thresholds,” offering workers increased social assistance like unemployment benefits or job training. 

The goal of the proposals, the company wrote, is to serve as a “starting point” for a wider discussion “to ensure that AI benefits everyone.” In an interview, OpenAI’s chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane said the policy conversations around AI need to be “as transformative” as the technology itself.

Founded in 2015, OpenAI kicked off the current boom in generative AI in late 2022 with the release of ChatGPT, which remains its most well-known product. Originally built as a nonprofit dedicated to advancing AI to benefit humanity, the startup has since restructured into a more traditional for-profit company. 

OpenAI has said for years that it’s working to build what’s often referred to as artificial general intelligence, or AGI — essentially, computers that can do most tasks as well as people. More recently, the company and some of its rivals have discussed plans for more powerful software, or superintelligence. In its latest document, OpenAI defined superintelligence as “AI systems capable of outperforming the smartest humans even when they are assisted by AI.”

While OpenAI’s ChatGPT is used by more than 900 million people globally each week, many in the US have negative feelings about AI generally, driven in large part by concerns about job displacement as well as power-hungry data centers.  

Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, which are at the forefront of AI advancement, have sought to educate the public and policymakers about the potential changes wrought by AI. That’s included a range of work on communication, including last week, when OpenAI bought the tech talk show TBPN.  

“It is simply not good enough to wave your hands and say, ‘Here’s all the things that are going to happen and then not actually come up with solutions,’” Lehane said. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The tankers are gathered in several locations, including West India, off the coast of Sri Lanka, the northern entrance to the Strait of Malacca, and the waters east of Singapore, according to an analysis of tracking data from Bloomberg and Kpler. None of the tankers is carrying LNG, the data shows.

Qatar was forced to shut production at the world’s largest LNG export plant following an Iranian drone attack in early-March, upending the global market and leaving its vast fleet of tankers without orders. Parts of the facility at Ras Laffan were damaged following another attack later in March.

The idled ships illustrate the scale of the disruption, which has sent shockwaves through the LNG industry and forced some nations to cut consumption. LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway that links the Gulf with global markets — has been brought to a near-standstill by Tehran since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February.

At present, there are more than 800 LNG tankers in operation worldwide, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Iran rejected Trump’s latest ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would only fully resume operations when war damage is compensated. Tehran continued striking energy targets in Gulf neighbors, including Kuwait’s oil headquarters.

Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, used an expletive in a social media post and told Axios he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. He said he plans a news conference at 1 p.m. on Monday and posted about a Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details.

Axios reported that the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting, citing four American, Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks. The people, who were not named, said chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low.

On March 26, Trump also gave Iran a 10-day deadline to reopen Hormuz, which expires Monday evening. His threat to bomb civilian power plants could constitute a war crime under international law.

Late Saturday’s operation, which was hailed by Trump, involved dozens of US aircraft deployed to retrieve the injured crew member from a mountainous area in Iran, a day after a second person from the same F-15E was rescued.

The mission spanned two days and involved hundreds of special operations troops, with US aircraft dropping bombs and firing on Iranian convoys to keep them away from the aviator’s hiding area, the New York Times reported.

House Intelligence Chairman Rick Crawford, an Arkansas Republican, said on Fox News’ that the US sustained no casualties but destroyed “a couple” of aircraft on the ground in Iran to prevent them from falling into enemy hands.

The downing of US aircraft pierced the aura of invincibility Trump has sought to project as the war with Iran enters a second month. Iran’s attacks have brought the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows — close to a standstill, lifting energy prices and rattling global markets.

Fifteen ships have passed through the strait with Iran’s permission in the past 24 hours, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that’s still about 90% lower than before the start of the conflict.

Oil prices rose after Trump’s latest threats with Brent up about 1.4% to trade above $110 a barrel. Japanese stocks advanced in early Monday trading on reports that some vessels had passed through the strait.  

Prices have been roiled by the conflict and soaring costs for products such as jet fuel and diesel are threatening a renewed wave of inflation. OPEC+ members raised their production quotas for May in a symbolic move as the war constrains production and shipments from several of the alliance’s largest members.

In the US, average national retail gasoline prices have topped $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Crossing that critical psychological threshold brings political risk to the Trump administration and Republicans as consumers grow increasingly concerned over the cost of living ahead of November’s midterms.

But it won’t be easy for any side to end the conflict. Both the US and Iran have rejected each other’s demands, while Israel has made clear it wants to inflict further damage to Tehran’s military capabilities.

Israel assesses that Iran still has more than 1,000 missiles capable of reaching it, while Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon includes as many as 10,000 shorter-range rockets, according to military briefings cited by Israeli media this weekend.

Israel said it struck a petrochemical complex in southwestern Iran, where Tehran said five people were killed and 170 others wounded.

Kuwait’s oil sector faced a fresh barrage Sunday, with drone strikes causing fires at refining and petrochemical facilities. The strikes came hours after Kuwait Petroleum Corp.’s headquarters, which also houses the country’s oil ministry, was set ablaze in a similar attack. 

A separate strike on power and water desalination plants caused significant damage, putting two generation units out of service.

Borouge PLC suspended operations at a petrochemicals plant in Abu Dhabi after multiple fires broke out from falling debris following interceptions of Iranian attacks, the government media office said.

Israel said Sunday it struck more than 120 air defense and missile systems in central and western Iran over the past 24 hours. The country’s defense minister threatened further attacks on Iranian infrastructure.

An Iranian missile barrage targeted an industrial site in southern Israel, where shrapnel caused minor damage at a factory with no injuries reported, the country’s fire department said.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry said in a post on X on Sunday that it discussed with Iran possible options to ensure “smooth flow” through Hormuz.

Iran announced Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its shipping restrictions in the strait, allowing for as much as 3 million barrels a day of Iraqi oil cargoes. An Iraqi official struck a cautious note, saying volumes would depend on whether shipping companies are willing to risk entering the strait.

The Suezmax Ocean Thunder, an oil tanker that loaded its cargo at Iraq’s Basrah terminal in early March, exited the strait en route to Malaysia, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Such vessels can carry about 1 million barrels of crude.

More than 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict, almost three-quarters of them in Iran, according to government organizations and the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. More than 1,460 people have been killed in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting a parallel war against Iran-allied Hezbollah.

(Updates with Axios report on ceasefire talks in paragraph four.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela, held its 65th meeting via videoconference on Sunday. 

The JMMC reviewed current market conditions and emphasised the essential role of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting the stability of global energy markets. In this context, the Committee highlighted the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy.

It also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and time-consuming, thereby affecting overall supply availability. Accordingly, the Committee stressed that any actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility and weaken the collective efforts under the DoC to support market stability for the benefit of producers, consumers, and the global economy.

In this regard, the Committee commended the DoC countries that took the initiative to ensure the continued availability of supplies, particularly through the use of alternative export routes, which have contributed to reducing market volatility. The JMMC will continue to closely monitor market conditions and retains the authority to convene additional meetings or request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, as established at the 38th ONOMM held on 5 December 2024. 

Separately, OPEC+ also agreed ‌to a modest rise of its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, although the figure will largely remain academic while key OPEC members being unable to raise production due to the Middle East conflict.

The Jewel, an Aframax-class vessel, started a cargo loading on Saturday, according to shipping information seen by Bloomberg News. 

Loadings at Ust-Luga, a key oil-export outlet in Russia’s west, stopped at the end of March as Ukraine stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure along the Baltic coast. 

Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment outside normal business hours. 

Ukraine continues its attacks on Russia’s Baltic oil infrastructure, with facilities damaged in the port of Primorsk earlier on Sunday. Ukraine’s moves are aimed at curbing Russian export revenue at a time when global energy prices have rallied because of the war in the Middle East.

Still, if Russia resumes stable crude flows from Ust-Luga, it could bring some relief to global markets rattled by Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Ocean Thunder crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran exempted its “brotherly” neighbor from shipping restrictions a day earlier.

Transits through the critical waterway have been picking up in the past week, with data on Saturday showing the highest seven-day rolling average since the war began. Yet traffic remains at a trickle compared with prewar numbers.

It’s not yet clear whether the dispensation for Baghdad will apply to all ships calling at Iraqi ports, or how it will be enforced. At its broadest, the exemption could free up about 3 million barrels a day of oil exports from the country and allow it to restart production from shuttered fields — as long as shippers are willing to send their tankers into the Gulf.

A total of 16 ships have crossed the strait since Saturday morning, with 11 exiting the Gulf and five entering from the open seas, vessel-tracking data show. In normal times, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait every day.

Iran has moved to tighten its control over the waterway, setting up a tolling system and directing most vessels to take a specific route close to its border. In the past day, all recorded transits of large ships went through that narrow northern passage, situated between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm.

The most significant recent crossing is that of the Ocean Thunder, a vessel managed by Turkey-based Onn Denizcilik ve Danismanlik, according to the Equasis maritime database.

Tanker-tracking is hampered by electronic interference with ships’ signals, and some vessels disable their AIS transponders in high-risk waters, further reducing the timeliness and reliability of tracking data.

Outbound Transits

Five bulk carriers and three oil-product tankers exited the Persian Gulf on Saturday, with two oil tankers and a liquefied petroleum gas carrier following on Sunday morning. Four of the bulkers came from Iranian ports, with two signaling that they’d been delivering food.

The Ocean Thunder passed through Iran’s “toll booth” between the Qeshm and Larak islands. The products carrier Ratta followed the same route after leaving the Saudi port of Al Jubail, tracking data show. The LPG carrier Green Asha was also observed making the outbound crossing on Sunday, heading for India.

In addition, two very small Indian cargo ships have been noted leaving the Gulf, hugging the coast of Oman. Neither vessel has an IMO number and they are not included in the transit count.

With vessels “going dark” in high-risk waters, transit counts may initially appear lower and may be revised upward as delayed data becomes available.

Inbound Transits

One chemicals tanker, one LPG tanker, two bulk carriers and a container ship entered the Gulf on Saturday. The chemicals tanker, one bulker and the container ship are linked to Iran and sanctioned by the US.

The Iran-linked bulker and container ship headed for the port of Bandar Abbas at the top of the Strait of Hormuz, while the other three vessels all entered the Gulf along the Iranian route.

NOTES:

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

More vessels are crossing, including those with no clear links to Iran or China, as nations negotiate with Tehran to get their ships through. Transits over the past day were led by liquefied petroleum gas carriers, including one headed to India and others with Iranian affiliations. 

A total of 13 ships have crossed since Friday morning, with 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering from the open seas, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Still, that’s a trickle compared with the numbers before the war began on Feb. 28. In normal times, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait every day. 

Iran has moved to tighten its control over the waterway, setting up a tolling system and directing most vessels to take a specific route close to its border. In the past day, all recorded transits went through that narrow northern passage, situated between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm.

Recent crossings include a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker, seemingly the first such transits since the war began. It’s not clear whether those journeys were a result of diplomatic outreach or negotiations by shipping companies and their intermediaries.

Tanker-tracking is hampered by electronic interference with ships’ signals, and some vessels disable their AIS transponders in high-risk waters, further reducing the timeliness and reliability of tracking data.

Outbound Transits

Five bulk carriers and one oil-product tanker joined the four LPG tankers in exiting the Persian Gulf since Friday morning. Three of the bulkers and the fuel tanker sailed on Saturday morning. Apart from the Indian LPG vessel, the others are linked to Chinese or Iranian interests.

With vessels going dark in high-risk waters, transit counts may initially appear lower and may be revised upward as delayed data becomes available.

Inbound Transits

Two LPG carriers and one fuel tanker with Iranian affiliations were among the inbound transits recorded since Friday morning.

NOTES:

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Meloni started her tour from Jeddah, according to an Italian government official. She is the first leader of a European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization country to visit the region since the Iran war started, the official said, adding that Meloni will also meet with representatives from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on the trip.

The focus of her visit is to share views on the war, maritime security, opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the humanitarian situation in countries affected by the conflict, according to Italian diplomats. Meloni will also relay the message that Italian energy firms, including state-backed Eni SpA, remain committed to investing in the region, they added. 

The premier traveled to the region on Good Friday with a goal of strengthening the partnership with Gulf energy producers after Iran attacked them in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, the diplomats said. She us seeking to get a full picture of their positions on the war, they added.

The trip would also help Meloni fortify energy links with the Gulf, the government official added, a key source for oil and gas for Italy. The Bank of Italy on Friday lowered its GDP growth estimates for 2026 and 2027, citing the impact of the war on prices and the economy. 

Italy has sent aerial defenses to the Gulf to help counter Iran’s assaults, and there were some similar requests pending, the diplomats said, but these were constrained by the war in Ukraine.

Rome has also remained in contact with Iran throughout the fighting, which started on Feb. 28, and is pushing for a ceasefire in a mediated resolution to the conflict.

Energy Prices

The war has roiled global energy markets, with the strait of Hormuz closure choking off global supply, a disruption that’s affected Italy particularly. Meloni flew to Algeria last month in an effort to secure more gas from the North African nation. Spain has made similar moves.

Earlier on Friday, Meloni’s government extended Italy’s fuel tax cut through May 1, committing about €500 million ($577 million) in added funds to blunt the impact of higher energy prices caused by the Iran war. 

For that period, consumers and businesses will continue to see a €0.25 per liter reduction in taxes at the pump, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said. The new measures add to a similar-sized package that was set to expire on April 7.

“We’re talking about an emergency here,” Giorgetti told reporters in Rome. “The overall situation is objectively worrying for the economy,” Giorgetti added, referring to the war in Iran, with effects on monetary and fiscal policy for the countries affected.

Meloni’s government has limited headroom to intervene, given a mammoth public debt load and European Union fiscal rules. If the Iran war persists it will become “inevitable” that the EU revises the 3% deficit ceiling on member countries, Giorgetti said.

The lack of flexibility was underscored on Friday, when Italy’s statistics institute said the country had breached the European Union’s deficit ceiling in 2025. The budget shortfall reached 3.1% of domestic product last year, further compressing fiscal headroom for the government as it contends with the energy shock and attempts to respond to a key referendum defeat last month.

Several European nations, including Spain and France, have also passed energy measures or signaled that they were considering them in response to price shocks caused by the war. 

(Updates with context, Bin Salman meeting and additional detail starting from the first paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Abu Dhabi suspended operations at its largest natural gas processing facility, after a fire broke out due to debris from a projectile interception. It is the second time operations have been halted at the Habshan facility since the war broke out. No injuries were reported. 

Hours earlier, a drone attack caused a fire at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery, with a capacity of 346,000 barrels a day. Kuwaiti media said there were no immediate reports of casualties and teams were working to put out the blaze. Authorities also said a power and water desalination plant was attacked early on Friday, damaging some components. 

Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted several drones in the early morning.

On Thursday, Trump posted a video of a destroyed bridge and said there would be “much more to follow” if Iran didn’t agree to a deal to end the conflict, now almost five weeks old and which has caused a global energy crisis.

Iran remained defiant, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying strikes on civilian structures “will not compel Iranians to surrender.” The country has shown little sign of accepting Trump’s demands for peace and has laid out its own conditions — most of them unacceptable to the US and Israel.

CNN reported that about half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact — despite more than 12,000 US and Israeli strikes on Iran since they began the war in late February — and that thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal. The assessment may include launchers that are currently inaccessible even if they are not destroyed, CNN said, citing three sources familiar with the matter.

Trump signaled this week he may be willing to pull US forces out of the conflict in two to three weeks, even if the vital Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut. US allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia are stepping up efforts to ensure the waterway — through which one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow — is reopened soon.

More than 40 of them met virtually on Thursday to discuss plans, in a signal to Trump of their concern about the crisis triggered by the closure, with prices of energy and other commodities soaring in the past month.

The group was clear the US needed to include a solution for Hormuz in any ceasefire talks with Iran, people familiar with the discussions said. Still, the meeting showed the coalition of countries deem it necessary to begin preparations for having to reopen the strait without the US. Nations such as France and the UK have said military options are unlikely to work and that a ceasefire is needed.

The strait remains all but shut. Iran appeared to tighten its grip on Thursday when its media reported that the government is drafting protocol with Oman to monitor shipping traffic. That would require shippers to pay tolls to Iran, according to the country’s deputy foreign minister. Oman, which sits on the other side of the strait from Iran, is yet to comment on the reports.

The passage is officially in international waters and any attempt by Iran to assert control over traffic will be strongly opposed by Western powers and Gulf Arab states.

A trickle of ships is managing to pass through. A container ship signaling French ownership has recently exited the Strait of Hormuz, in what appears to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the war began, Bloomberg reported.

The United Nations Security Council will likely vote on Friday on a resolution that would support a range of measures to reopen Hormuz.

Bahrain, supported by Jordan and Arab Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, is proposing the resolution, according to the UAE. It would provide “a clear legal basis for all states to mobilize and support safe passage,” the UAE said in a post on X.

In the oil market, WTI crude — the main benchmark for the US — settled above $110 a barrel for the first time since 2022 on Thursday. Fuel continued to edge higher worldwide, with diesel prices in Europe rising above $200 a barrel.

Oil markets are closed for Easter holidays on Friday.

Trump has oscillated between casting diplomatic efforts as productive, and threatening further destruction — including on civilian and energy infrastructure. Earlier this week, he threatened to target Iran’s energy facilities and water desalination plants if the strait stays shut — a move that could constitute a war crime under the Geneva Conventions.

He previously said Iran has until April 6 to reopen Hormuz or have its power plants destroyed. It’s unclear if that deadline is still in place.

The president is under increasing pressure from Americans to ease the energy shock, which has seen gasoline pump prices in the country surge to more than $4 a gallon on average. That’s the highest level in almost four years.

Trump has insisted prices will drop quickly once the war is over. He says the conflict was necessary to prevent Iran getting a nuclear bomb — something Tehran has always denied it wants — and to destroy its stockpile of missiles.

On Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asked Army Chief of Staff General Randy George to step down immediately. The Pentagon didn’t give a reason.

A prolonged conflict carries political risks for Trump and his Republican Party as the November midterm elections approach. Polls show a significant numbers of Americans disapprove of military operations against Iran and a rising number are concerned about the economic impact of the war.

More than 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict so far, almost three-quarters of them in Iran, according to government organizations and the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Just over 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting a parallel war against Iran-allied Hezbollah.

(Adds details on Abu Dhabi’s gas facilities.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Habshan gas facility was halted after debris fell in the area from the interception of an incoming attack, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in a post on X. At Habshan, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. operates the UAE’s main facility for collecting and processing gas from the emirate’s fields and distributing it for domestic use.

Habshan also has oil facilities and is the starting point for Adnoc’s crude pipeline to Fujairah, a key port that sits outside the Strait of Hormuz. 

Hours earlier, Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery was also struck, with units in operation at the time catching fire. Authorities also said a power and water desalination plant was attacked early on Friday, causing damages to some components.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company is exploring possible locations including Texas, Virginia and the northeastern US, the spokesperson said on Friday, confirming an earlier report by the Nikkei newspaper. No final decision has been made, the spokesperson added.

Artificial intelligence and the data centers behind it are driving a surge in US power demand, with tech firms turning increasingly to gas-powered facilities as a stable source of electricity. Osaka Gas President Masataka Fujiwara said in an interview in November that the company is targeting more investment in such plants in the US.

The US and Japan are also planning to build a $33 billion gas-fired power plant in Ohio as part of a trade deal between the two nations. At least 13 Japanese firms, including SoftBank Group Corp., are tied to that project.

The latest initiative by Osaka Gas is separate from the trade deal, the spokesperson said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Tokyo Gas Co., which supplies gas and electricity to the nation’s capital, suspended acceptance of new clients for industrial power use from March 6, a company spokesperson said. With the ongoing conflict affecting procurement costs, the company has yet to decide when it will resume taking on new customers, the spokesperson said.

Eneos Power Corp., the power-retail unit of oil refiner Eneos Holdings Inc., has also temporarily stopped taking requests from new clients for industrial use, according to its website. A company spokesperson declined to comment further.

The temporary restrictions apply only to industrial electricity users. Both companies are continuing to take on new clients for comparatively low-voltage household use.

The US-Israeli war with Iran has resulted in the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that’s normally a transit point for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. This, along with the destruction of key energy infrastructure in the region, has affected the Japanese power market, which relies heavily on fossil-fuel imports to generate electricity.

Japan’s power retailers have suspended acceptance of new clients before, for example when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent fuel prices skyrocketing. Such measures can threaten efforts by factories and other large power consumers from securing enough electricity.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Jera and Commonwealth entered the long-term agreement last year, which would’ve seen the proposed Louisiana-based export project supply 1 million tons of LNG annually for 20 years. The notification of the deal’s termination was dated April 1 and filed on behalf of Commonwealth Energy. The agreement was terminated effective March 3, the letter said, without giving a reason.

Spokespeople for Commonwealth LNG and Jera did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The planned Commonwealth LNG project is under development by private equity-backed Kimmeridge Energy Management LLC, whose managing partner Ben Dell said last week that a final investment decision is expected in April. The project has other long-term offtake agreements with purchasers including Glencore Plc and Malaysia’s Petronas.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, says the bloc is assessing “all possibilities” to tackle long-term effects of the Middle East conflict, including releasing more oil from strategic reserves.

“This will be a long crisis ... energy prices will be higher for a very long time,” Jørgensen told the Financial Times. The Dane also warned that for some more “critical” products, the EU could “expect it to be even worse in the weeks to come”.

Preparing for tough times

His message comes amid energy market disruption caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Gulf infrastructure. Prices have soared alongside fears of long-term supply shortages, potentially higher inflation, and slower economic growth.

While Jørgensen explained the EU was “not in a security of supply crisis, yet”, Brussels was devising plans to tackle “structural, long-lasting effects” of the war.

Jørgensen continued. “It certainly is our analysis this will be a prolonged situation, and countries need to be sure that they ... have what they need.”

Governments have been creating strategies to support consumers. The commissioner said the EU was “preparing for the worst scenarios”, including rationing critical products such as jet fuel or diesel, although it was “not there yet”.

“Better to be prepared than to be sorry,” he said, also reiterating there would be no change to EU legislation to end Russian LNG imports this year.

The politician said relying instead on the US and other partners to provide additional supplies was acceptable, as they operate in “the free market”.

Potential relief levers 

Jørgensen also spoke about loosening jet fuel regulations to permit more US imports and allowing more ethanol blending for automotive fuel.

He again said the EU was “not there yet” but was examining all possibilities.

“It’s clear the more serious the situation gets, the more, of course, we will also have to look into legislative tools,” he said.

Jørgensen would also “not exclude” another release of strategic energy reserves “if the situation becomes more dire”, without revealing the bloc’s “exact analysis” on when that might be required.

EU countries actioned the largest release of strategic oil reserves in history last month, in a bid to tame soaring prices.

Jørgensen added: “We need to keep our possibilities open, and if this is indeed, as I project, a long-lasting crisis, we need those tools also at a later stage. It needs to be done at the exact right time, and it needs to be proportionate.”

The average rate for 30-year, fixed loans was 6.46%, the highest since early September and up from 6.38% last week. 

The housing market is entering its traditional peak time of the year for transactions, but concerns about the economy threaten to hold back both buyers and sellers. Spiking energy prices from the war in Iran have sparked inflation fears, while the growth of artificial intelligence stirs job insecurities. Home prices also remain out of reach for many Americans.  

Capital Economics downgraded its already bearish 2026 forecast for sales of previously owned homes, citing the recent jump in mortgage rates that’s been fanned by the war and higher yields for benchmark Treasury bonds.

That rise in loan costs has reduced purchasing power for new borrowers, who’d face significantly bigger monthly bills than they would have in late February, when rates dipped below 6%. 

“This fast-changing mortgage math, combined with general economic uncertainty, could keep more buyers on the sidelines as the typically busy spring market gets into full swing,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst for Realtor.com.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev told the state-run TASS news agency that the second ship is being loaded.

The Donald Trump administration had blocked all major oil shipments to the island for more than three months, when it finally let through a Russian vessel on March 30 carrying 100,000 tons of crude. 

Trump called the exception a humanitarian gesture, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said it didn’t represent a fundamental change in the US maximum pressure campaign against the communist-run island. 

Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, said oil markets are too fragile, with the ongoing war in Iran, and Washington is likely too focused elsewhere, to try to block this new tanker. 

“Energy markets are too volatile to think that the US is going to escalate with Russia and Cuba,” Erickson said. “This is the consequence of a distracted and over-stretched foreign policy.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company delivered 358,023 vehicles worldwide in the first quarter, according to a statement Thursday. Analysts anticipated 372,160 on average among estimates compiled by Bloomberg, a figure that steadily dropped in recent weeks. It’s the second consecutive quarter that Tesla has fallen short of projections.

Deliveries still managed to rise 6.3% from a year earlier, when the carmaker paused Model Y production at plants around the globe and dealt with a consumer backlash against Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Aside from that period, the latest quarter’s results were the lowest since mid-2022.

Investors have mostly been willing to overlook Tesla’s sales trend as Musk has refocused around the futuristic business lines of artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and robotics. Still, the traditional car business remains the primary cash generator for the Austin-based company, making it crucial that Tesla finds traction even as US electric-vehicle demand wavers.

“While the delivery numbers were quite underwhelming, this was not a shock to us given the current EV backdrop across geographies while the company shifts gears to focus more on its AI strategy,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note. There is a “more difficult demand environment while Europe remains a headwind to its deliveries.”

Tesla shares fell as much as 4.6% after the markets opened in New York, the biggest intraday drop in almost two months. The stock declined 15% this year through Wednesday’s close and has fallen 22% from a record high in December.

The US — Tesla’s largest market — is entering a new era for EV demand following the loss of federal incentives that had been subsidizing purchases. The phase-out of those incentives at the end of September heavily skewed sales in the second half of last year.

President Donald Trump has sought to eliminate what he called an EV mandate by eliminating tax credits and weakening emissions and fuel-efficiency requirements, leading many automakers to reinvest in gas-powered models.

Aside from the US market headwinds, Tesla is also grappling with rising competition from Chinese EV makers around the world and an aging vehicle lineup. The company is discontinuing its two oldest vehicles, the Model S sedan and Model X SUV.

Musk has said Tesla aims to begin volume production soon on a new two-seater model, the Cybercab, that will support the company’s nascent robotaxi business. The sales prospects are uncertain for that vehicle, which is designed to be operated autonomously and won’t have a steering wheel or pedals.

Tesla delivered a total of 341,893 Model Y SUVs and Model 3 sedans in the first quarter, with the two popular vehicles accounting for the bulk of the company’s sales and production. Deliveries of other EVs — the Model S, Model X and Cybertruck — rose to 16,130.

The deliveries were well short of Tesla’s overall production during the quarter, which came to 408,386.

The company’s energy business, which has been a relatively steady, growing division, was down during the period despite analysts’ predictions for a significant jump. Tesla reported that it deployed 8.8 gigawatt hours of energy-storage products during the quarter, compared with 10.4 gigawatt hours a year ago.

“The biggest disappointment was the energy storage deployment number, which has been a key growth driver for Tesla in recent quarters,” said Garrett Nelson, an analyst with CFRA. “The lack of detail in the release leaves a lot of unanswered questions between now and its earnings release later this month.”

Tesla will report first-quarter financial results on April 22.

(Updates with analysts’ comments beginning in fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Construction of the 248-megawatt battery — which will have 496 megawatt-hours of capacity — is scheduled to begin this summer, with operation expected in 2028, Neoen, controlled by Brookfield Asset Management, said in a statement. Japan’s Nidec will assemble the battery packs in France.

Demand for battery storage is growing in France, and other parts of Europe, as power gluts become increasingly frequent due more solar and wind generation that can exceed demand during parts of the day. That’s leading to curbs in French nuclear and renewable output, making grid balancing more challenging, and causing big swings in prices — including to below zero.

The new battery will provide frequency and voltage regulation services to the French grid and help relieve congestion of the network in the Paris region, according to the statement 

Installed battery storage in France rose 35% last year 1.61 gigawatts, according to grid operator RTE data.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent climbed above $107 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was near $105 following Trump’s rare prime-time address to the nation, where he cast the war as a success. The president said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, and that Hormuz would open “naturally” after the conflict ends, without offering details or a clear timeline. 

“Nothing in Trump’s speech alters the underlying market reality: the strait has effectively been closed for a month, and flows remain materially constrained with at least several weeks of disruption still likely, if not more,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp. Brent is expected to trade between $95 and $110 a barrel in the near term, he added.

Oil fell in recent days, while wider markets rallied, after Trump signaled a possible resolution to the Middle East conflict within weeks, but his speech from the White House injected further uncertainty about an end to war. The US president again threatened attacks on Iranian oil facilities.

The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off supplies of crude, gas and products such as diesel to global markets, driving up energy prices and raising fears of an inflation crisis. Oil posted big monthly gains in March and Brent is still more than 40% higher than before the war.

The standoff over Hormuz is the most pressing issue for energy markets. On Monday, Trump said the US will blow up Iranian infrastructure including power plants if the strait doesn’t re-open, but on Tuesday, he called on other nations to wrest control of the waterway. The United Arab Emirates is among Gulf nations calling on the United Nations to authorize force to re-open it.

Iran and Oman will decide the future of the strait, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday, state-run Press TV reported. Hormuz won’t be opened based on the “absurd displays” of the US president, state-run IRIB added, citing a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Trump said in his address from the White House late Wednesday that the war is “very close” to completion, but added military operations will soon escalate in Iran. He stated that “over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.” The president said countries that get oil via Hormuz should take the lead in protecting shipments.

“The president’s characteristic ambiguity leaves multiple military options open in the near term, even as it sketches a relatively short timeline for US involvement,” said Claudio Galimberti, Houston-based chief economist at Rystad Energy. “Until there is greater clarity on the path to de-escalation, markets are likely to remain highly volatile.”

Even if the conflict was to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows to resume through Hormuz, while some energy infrastructure has been damaged and is facing lengthy repairs. The International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that energy rationing may be coming soon to some countries as the oil supply shock deepens this month. 

Trump has vacillated throughout the conflict — which is nearing its sixth week — between threatening a military escalation and saying a deal is imminent. He has dispatched Vice President JD Vance to deliver an ultimatum to Iran to make a deal or face attacks on key infrastructure.

Iran’s military is “prepared for any scenario,” the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported, citing Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei. He added that US demands are “maximalist and illogical.”

Investors are piling into options contracts that would allow them to profit from nearly any outcome, whether it’s a quick resolution dragging crude lower, or a further spike. There have been a smattering of lottery ticket-type bets that the global oil benchmark could rally to $450 a barrel.

“This spike is a physiological reset for a complacent market,” said Stefano Grasso, senior portfolio manager for Enhanced Value Fund at 8VantEdge Pte. He added that the fund has “taken the rare step of buying protection and adding energy length. The risk-reward is now too compelling to ignore.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

By 2035, the world’s third-largest polluting nation aims to increase the share of electricity generation from cleaner sources to 60%, and plans to cut emissions intensity — the amount per unit of economic output — by 47% from a baseline year of 2005.

“That means very significant investment opportunities,” said Jayant Sinha, president of Eversource Capital, a private equity firm with more than $700 million in assets that invests in infrastructure. “Billions and billions of dollars have to flow into grid upgradation, battery storage, and so on.”

Energy transition investment in India jumped about 15% in 2025 to a record $67.9 billion, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF tracking sectors including electrified transport, clean industry and renewables. To hit net zero by 2070, India may need to deploy as much as $21 trillion on decarbonization, according to a draft document developed last year by Niti Aayog, the government’s top think tank.

Opportunities associated with India’s 2035 emissions goals also include electric vehicles and charging networks, Sinha said in an interview. Eversource has invested in companies focus on deploying smart meters and electric bus management systems in India.

India’s latest climate plan, required under terms of the Paris Agreement, has been criticized by advocates of faster action as lacking in ambition. The strategy didn’t set a goal for reductions in absolute greenhouse gas emissions, while a clean energy target is regarded as offering only an incremental advance.

Any shift by Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s government toward more aggressive plans would need far greater investment, Sinha said. “Not just hundreds of billions of dollars, but trillions of dollars are going to be required,” he said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The ninth edition of the Egypt Energy Show brought policymakers, global energy leaders, investors, and innovators together in the capital to address pressing energy challenges at an increasingly pivotal and disruptive time for the industry.

Spotlight on Egypt’s energy influence

His Excellency Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of the Republic of Egypt, led the Opening Ceremony, attended by a distinguished international audience of global CEOs, policymakers, and investors.

Joined by His Excellency Nikos Christodoulides, the President of Cyprus and Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, H.E. Eng. Karim Badawi, it signalled the beginning of an important fixture in the world’s 2026 energy event calendar.

The Egypt Energy Show 2026 was held at the Egypt International Exhibition Center (EIEC) under the theme Transforming Energy Through Collaboration, Action, and Realism. With dialogue, collaboration, and action at its core, the exhibition and conference again reinforced the North African nation’s role as a strategic regional energy hub that supports secure, affordable, and resilient energy systems.

Setting the scene for partnerships

This edition also witnessed a series of significant agreements and partnership announcements. These included an Egypt-Cyprus framework to enhance natural gas cooperation and joint offshore exploration, and a Chevron Host Government Agreement to advance the Aphrodite gas field and a 280km subsea pipeline to Egypt.

Partnerships between GANOPE, bp, and SLB for Red Sea hydrocarbon exploration and advanced seismic surveys were confirmed, as was an EPROM-Monarch-GTS agreement to assess and rehabilitate the Nordec mineral oil recycling plant. The event also saw an EGPC, Eni and Health Authority MoU to upgrade New Heliopolis Hospital and expand healthcare capacity.

Agenda for energy progress

The Egypt Energy Show 2026 Strategic Conference programme set a clear direction, which highlighted the importance of regional cooperation, pragmatic policymaking, and cross-border partnerships in navigating today’s complex energy landscape.

Prime Minister Dr Mostafa Madbouly also convened a high-level roundtable with global energy leaders and investors, which reinforced Egypt’s commitment to international collaboration and long-term, sustainable investment.

As well as at least 50,000 visitors, the presence of more than 350 influential speakers, and 500-plus exhibiting companies across 13 country pavilions on the show floor, underlined the show’s scale and significance. Emerging technologies and solutions were also placed in the spotlight at the Innovation and AI Hub, where the winners in both the Start-Up Pitch and the Industry Pitch were also showcased in style.

The Technical Conference again delivered essential information to industry professionals, and the Young Professionals Programme 2026 placed a focus on emerging industry talent to inspire the next wave of energy innovators, engineers, and sustainability advocates.

Meanwhile, the Energy Awards recognised excellence across the industry, covering categories such as Health and Safety, Young Energy Professionals, Process Safety Excellence, Digital Transformation and AI, and Scaling Renewable Projects.

The date for the 10th anniversary edition of The Egypt Energy Show has been confirmed as 29-31 March 2027. Visitor registration is now open.

The partnership comes as electricity demand accelerates across the region and brings together capital and expertise to deliver renewable energy at the scale and speed needed.

 Platform to capture Asia’s energy growth

Each company will contribute assets of comparable value, totalling 3GW of operational capacity and 6GW under advanced development.

The JV, to be headquartered in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), will act as both companies’ sole vehicle for developing, building, owning and operating onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Uzbekistan.

The JV brings together a global clean energy leader and a global integrated multi‑energy company and positions the partners to capture Asia’s growing electricity demand.

It will have a portfolio capacity of 3GW of operational assets and 6GW of assets in advanced development that are expected to be operational by 2030.

Expertise and scale to meet demand

His Excellency Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Chairman of Masdar, welcomed the transaction.

“The UAE has established itself as a global energy leader by delivering at scale, investing with conviction, and building partnerships that endure. Masdar epitomises that approach,” he said.

“We are proud to have pioneered renewable energy deployment in Central Asia and the Caucuses, and we have an expanding portfolio in some of the most attractive growth markets in Asia-Pacific.”

H.E. Dr. Al Jaber continued: “Asia will be the main driver of global electricity demand growth this decade, and this collaboration with TotalEnergies will accelerate our progress across the continent, unlocking new opportunities to deliver the competitive, reliable energy solutions that our partners and customers need.”

Strength from partnership

Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, was also delighted with an agreement with Masdar which he said “brings together two major renewable players to build a renewable champion in Asia”.

He commented: “It will allow us to combine the strengths of our two companies to secure significant positions in these markets and create more value than if we were acting alone.

“This agreement is fully in line with the renewable energy strategy of our Integrated Power business. We are also pleased to further deepen, in this area, the long-standing relationship between the United Arab Emirates and TotalEnergies.”

Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC), said the JV reinforces Abu Dhabi’s status as a “global centre for energy leadership”, and combines the expertise of Masdar and TotalEnergies to drive renewable energy deployment across Asia.

“For Masdar, this JV strengthens and diversifies our portfolio, unlocking new opportunities in attractive, high-growth markets, while bringing in a like-minded partner to accelerate growth and deliver additional value in our existing markets,” he added.

The JV will be staffed by about 200 employees from both TotalEnergies and Masdar and the management team will be announced at a future date.

The closing of the agreement is subject to regulatory approvals and conditions.

Tehran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz has choked off Persian Gulf crude flows, boosting the price of Russia’s flagship Urals grade. But the waterway is also an important conduit for shipments of aluminum, liquefied natural gas and some fertilizers. As supplies have been squeezed, prices have surged — aluminum by 12% and urea by almost three-quarters since the start of the conflict.

There are also signs that some Russian commodities are losing the pariah status that’s weighed on them since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago. Washington has eased sanctions on Moscow’s barrels at sea, but western customers are also starting to show interest in the Russian metals they long shunned. And the nation may also benefit as competition intensifies between Asian and European LNG buyers.

“Without the war in Iran, the situation in Russian economy would be much worse than it is now,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said by email. 

A week before the US and Israel struck Iran, Russia had been considering downgrading its growth forecast as tougher sanctions over Ukraine hit oil revenues. Government officials were even considering slashing the oil price used for the country’s key budget rule to as low as $45 to $50 a barrel.

The war in the Persian Gulf has driven a dramatic turnaround. On Friday, Russia’s flagship Urals crude grade averaged $93.40 a barrel in the country’s western ports, according to data from Argus Media.

Russian oil exports could get a $40 billion boost if the price of crude remains elevated to the end of this year, according to analysis by several European governments and shared with Bloomberg News by officials on condition of anonymity. Should the US-Israeli war end quickly, with Hormuz reopening and oil prices returning to pre-war levels within three months, the boost would be limited to under $10 billion.

“The windfall for the Russian economy has been real,” said Bota Iliyas, a geopolitical and risk analyst at London-based risk assessment firm Schillings.

While oil remains an important source of revenue for the Kremlin’s coffers, other commodities are also benefiting from the Middle East conflict. 

Benchmark prices for aluminum are heading toward a four-year high after Iranian drones and missiles hit two major plants in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. That’s improved the outlook for Russian metal, which has been largely shunned by Western buyers since 2022. 

United Co. Rusal International PJSC is receiving inquiries from the US and Europe about spare capacity, according to people familiar with the matter. In recent years, the Russian company that accounts for more than 5% of global output has been forced to redirect about half of its sales to China due to western restrictions.

Should the US or Europe ease trade restrictions on Russian metals, Rusal could reroute some volumes from China and boost alloy sales, the people said. 

Rusal’s press service declined to comment.

The shutdown of Hormuz has also choked off vital Persian Gulf flows of fertilizer and the gas needed to produce them. No. 2 producer Russia, which accounts for a fifth of the trade in crop nutrients, is poised to step into the breach.

“Russian supply has become increasingly important to the global nitrogen and phosphate markets,” said Taylor Eastman, a fertilizer trader at Andersons Inc.

For the moment, Russia is prioritizing domestic supply, with an export quota of 18.7 million tons on nitrogen and some complex fertilizers running through May and shipments of ammonium nitrate banned through April 21. Still, the nation can still ship some types of fertilizers within those limits or not covered by the quota.

Despite the upbeat outlook for energy and commodities, Russia’s ability to fully exploit the Iran war is being undermined by Ukrainian strikes on its oil refineries, infrastructure and fertilizer plants.

Oil export hubs on the Baltic Sea have come under repeated attacks over the past week, with loadings at Ust-Luga halted since March 25. Dorogobuzh PJSC, a major nitrogen nutrient plant, will remain idle until May after a Ukrainian drone strike in February.

But for other commodities, the situation looks brighter. 

Wheat export prospects for this season and the next are improving as supply risks tied to the Middle East conflict bolster demand, SovEcon said last week. Russian farmers also benefit from price caps on domestic fertilizer supplies, while higher costs may weigh on crop output in Europe and Ukraine.

Russian gas is another likely beneficiary, after Iranian strikes shut the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant in Qatar and damaged about 17% of its capacity. As competition intensifies between Asian and European LNG buyers, Russian producers are set to exploit higher global prices, even as the European Union starts introducing restrictions on the country’s super-chilled fuel.

While US President Donald Trump has said he foresaw ending the war on Iran within two to three weeks, there’s unlikely to be a clean end to the conflict given Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. Either way, the market fallout is likely to reverberate for much longer, benefiting Iran’s key ally, Moscow.

“The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the potential upside for Russia,” said Vita Spivak, a consultant at Gatehouse. “Higher-for-longer commodity prices and sustained demand through extended sanctions waivers could help offset some of these structural losses” from Ukrainian attacks, she said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Energy prices are at the top of the bloc’s political agenda as concerns over its declining competitiveness compared to China and the US have been exacerbated by tensions in the Middle East. The European Commission offered to make supply controls in the EU Emissions Trading System more flexible and floated concessions on free carbon permits for heavy industry.

In a draft regulation unveiled on Wednesday, the Commission proposed scrapping the invalidation of certain permits in its Market Stability Reserve — a mechanism that controls supply in the carbon market — while leaving volume thresholds and the absorption rate intact.  The proposal needs approval from member states and the European Parliament to enter into force.

The measure effectively means the EU aims to limit carbon price volatility by boosting the number of permits it can keep in the reserve for potential future releases in case of price swings. This is a less aggressive move than some traders had priced in following calls by politicians to significantly weaken or even suspend the EU ETS.

The MSR became a key feature of the ETS in 2019, when it began absorbing surplus permits from the market once a certain threshold of allowances in circulation was reached. Current legislation invalidates any allowances held in the reserve above a threshold of 400 million on Jan. 1 each year.

The design of the reserve will be assessed during a broader review of EU emissions trading law planned for July, according to a senior official who asked not to be identified. Revising more complex EU legislation can take up to two years.

In another move to address member states’ concerns about rising energy prices and the role of carbon costs, the Commission plans to offer some flexibility to energy-intensive industries on free emissions permits. While most allowances are sold at government auctions, certain companies receive a share of permits for free to prevent relocation to regions with laxer climate policies.

Launched in 2005, the EU ETS imposes gradually shrinking emissions caps on more than 10,000 facilities in sectors from steel to cement to chemicals. Carbon costs account for about 11% of electricity bills across the bloc on average, with heavy industry criticizing them as too much of a burden.

At the last EU summit in March, heads of government called on the Commission to take steps to reduce energy costs that were already stubbornly high before the Iran war disrupted oil and gas shipments and further boosted prices. Europe’s plans to revive its manufacturing sector and compete globally largely depend on whether it can lower energy bills for industry.

Shortly after the Easter break ending on April 6, the EU will unveil draft updated carbon-efficiency benchmarks that determine how many free allowances each industry receives, according to the official. The benchmarks will cover the period from 2026 to 2030 and, under EU law, must be tightened to reflect technological developments and improved performance.

Energy-intensive industries have called for freezing the benchmarks, fearing that tightening will place too much of a burden on manufacturers and lead to more factory closures. While the Commission has ruled out freezing them, it is examining what flexibility may be available to provide more generous allocations of free permits than initially anticipated, without compromising the integrity of the ETS, the official said.

The implementing act will first be subject to four weeks of public feedback, followed by a vote by representatives of EU member states in the bloc’s climate change committee, which the Commission expects to take place toward the end of April or in early May.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

BP’s first outsider CEO faces a list of challenges, which cost her predecessor his job and had raised crucial questions about the future of the more than century-old firm. Following a botched 2020 pivot toward renewables, the company has a mountain of debt, an organizational structure that many in the industry believe is too sprawling, and a portfolio cluttered with low-return units.

While BP’s share performance has lagged only Exxon Mobil Corp. among its main peers over the past 12 months, its market value is less than a fifth of its rival, and the stock has underperformed competitors over the last five years. When reporting earnings in February, BP was the only one to scrap its share buyback, a cornerstone of the investment case for the largest oil companies.

Although the crude rally due to the Middle East conflict will give O’Neill some breathing space, shareholders expect changes. Three investors — including two top-20 shareholders — who asked not to be identified want a simpler company. Two of them want leadership roles reduced or combined. They also want the CEO to cut costs and focus on the strongest upstream assets, such as in the US and Brazil, while shedding legacy assets like North Sea fields, where BP is the last major still operating its own business.

O’Neill has already met with senior leadership to assess the company, and every part of the organization is under review, according to employees who asked not to be identified.

It won’t be easy. Chairman Albert Manifold wants BP “to become a simpler, leaner and more profitable company.” He has told shareholders the turnaround will take at least two years to bear fruit, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the information is private. 

“If Meg fails to repair BP’s trajectory, I think it’s a sign that BP is terminally doomed to basically no longer be a major,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, referring to BP’s market value versus peers. He covered O’Neill at Australia’s Woodside Energy Group Ltd., where she spent three years as CEO. “If anyone can fix it, I think it’s her.”

O’Neill said she’s committed to “providing clear direction and consistency” so the company can move forward with confidence, according to an email to staff on Wednesday that was confirmed by BP. She also reiterated Manifold’s desire to make BP “simpler, stronger and more valuable.”

For now, oil companies are getting a big boost from crude’s rally as the Iran war causes what the International Energy Agency says is the biggest-ever oil supply disruption. BP calculates that every $1 gain in Brent adds roughly $340 million to its pretax profit.

In terms of supplies, BP is among the least exposed of the majors to Middle East disruptions, with limited volumes routed through the Strait of Hormuz compared with Shell Plc’s vast Qatar operations. BP’s trading arm — perhaps the company’s strongest asset — stands to benefit from the massive price moves.

Brent spiked near $120 a barrel last month. It fell back below $100 on Wednesday as President Donald Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war within two to three weeks, though prices are still up about 65% so far this year.

Still, investors and analysts say any windfall masks deep structural problems. 

The London-based company in February slashed a $750 million quarterly stock repurchases program that had already been reduced last year to shore up its balance sheet. Analysts at the time said the move to prioritize balance-sheet repair over investor payouts would help clear the decks for O’Neill.

BP has suffered from corporate disasters and lackluster returns from its renewables efforts. That led to activist investor Elliott Investment Management building a stake and campaigning to return the company to its core oil and gas focus, as well as the eventual departure late last year of Murray Auchincloss, who had replaced Bernard Looney as CEO just two years earlier.

Its proven reserves cover roughly seven years of production, among the shortest of any major. Its cost base is seen as uncompetitive and it hasn’t provided a clear investment case. When interim CEO Carol Howle was asked at the latest earnings why investors should choose BP over rivals, the response was widely seen as inadequate, according to some investors, employees and analysts.

The stock’s underperformance also made it the subject of takeover speculation, with Shell last year evaluating a potential acquisition. More than a dozen investors, employees and analysts who spoke on condition of anonymity described BP as now being at an inflection point.

While it’s not clear what O’Neill’s exact strategy will be, some investors and employees who spoke to Bloomberg would like changes to the leadership team. Several employees said morale at the company has suffered and that staff trust in leadership has weakened.

Previous restructuring under Looney that was meant to simplify BP made it more bloated, so creating a tighter upstream-downstream model may be one area of focus that ties in with Manifold’s push for a simpler company.

BP declined to comment.

The upstream pipeline offers long-term promise. The Bumerangue discovery off Brazil could hold billions of barrels of oil equivalent, and the company’s exploration record particularly over the last year differentiates it from peers struggling to replace reserves.

O’Neill’s overhaul of Woodside could offer insight into how she may revamp BP. There, she focused on expanding the portfolio, growing it from an Australia-focused producer to a global powerhouse in liquefied natural gas. Before that, she spent more than two decades at Exxon and was seen as a rising star.

MST’s Kavonic expects her to make difficult decisions on legacy businesses quickly.

“BP will either be fundamentally different or Meg won’t be there,” he said.

(Updates with CEO comments to staff in eighth paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.