The higher revenue from data centers will be used to pay for public electricity costs, such as streetlights, Deputy Interior Minister Polapee Suwunchwee told reporters after Wednesday’s meeting by the energy policy committee chaired by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. 

The Energy Regulatory Commission will determine the rate for data centers as early as the August billing, the official said. 

The plan comes as Thailand seeks to win billions of dollars of investment in AI infrastructure and hyper-scale data centers while limiting the impact of their rapidly rising electricity demand on its citizens. Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and ByteDance Ltd.’s Tiktok are among tech giants investing in Thailand to tap rising demand for AI and cloud computing. On Wednesday, the Board of Investments said US semiconductor company Analog Devices Inc. plans to nearly double its workforce in Thailand and increase exports from the country.

Thailand’s move to make data centers pay more for electricity follows a widening trend globally. In the US, Portland General Electric raised power prices for data centers by about 30%, while large data centers in California may soon be required to pay surcharges to cover the cost of increased energy demand they generate under a bill aimed at helping offset the extra cost data centers impose on communities.

The committee also approved expanding the direct power purchase agreement framework to cover a broader range of industries seeking access to clean electricity, according to the energy ministry statement. 

Previously focused on data centers, the program will now also cover other industrial users with demand for clean energy. The expanded framework will enable eligible businesses to procure renewable electricity directly from generators, helping them meet increasingly stringent international trade and sustainability standards that emphasize the use of clean energy.

The move is also intended to open Thailand’s clean electricity market and promote greater competition in the power sector, the ministry said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least 11 million barrels of US crude were sold to Asia late on Tuesday, and more deals may follow, according to traders. The buyers included refiners in South Korea, Japan and Thailand and some of the oil may load as soon as this month, they said, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to the media.

The upsurge in interest follows a hiatus when the trade went quiet due to waves of backlogged supplies from the Middle East hitting the spot market. Those flows are now under threat as the ceasefire between the US and Iran looks all but over.

The purchases came after at least three executives involved in selling US crude and procuring for Asian processors told Bloomberg they have once again started to negotiate for spot sales of American cargoes, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

The sudden spurt in US oil buying also coincided with a rally in Middle Eastern crude prices, which narrowed the price differential between the two regions.

Attacks on ships have increased in recent days, while Washington reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports. The deteriorating situation has upended shipping and oil markets, which had, until recently, been busy recalibrating as they adjusted to a recovery in energy flows from the Gulf. As of Wednesday, there was only a trickle of observable traffic going through Hormuz, although Iran has been sneaking crude tankers out of the gulf with their transponders turned off.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Barito has made a non-binding cash offer that gives First Gen Corp.-backed EDC an equity value of more than $5 billion, according to the people. Including debt, EDC could reach a valuation of up to $7 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information.

First Gen shares rose as much as 33% in Manila, their biggest intraday gain since the initial public offering in 2006, lifting the market capitalization to roughly $1.3 billion. Barito Renewables gained up to 3.6% in Jakarta, before paring some of the gains. Its stock has dropped more than 60% this year, giving the company a market value of almost $26 billion.

An acquisition of EDC may potentially rank as one of the largest renewable energy deals in Asia in recent years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It would also be among the biggest ever takeovers in the Philippines, the data showed.

The companies have been working with advisers on the potential deal, the people said, adding that deliberations are ongoing and there’s no certainty they’ll result in a transaction.

Barito Renewables is part of Barito Pacific Group. Its assets include geothermal and wind power plants, which are operated by different subsidiaries.

EDC’s backers also include Macquarie Asset Management and Singaporean wealth investor GIC Pte. The company voluntarily delisted from the Philippine Stock Exchange in 2018.

Representatives for Barito, EDC and First Gen didn’t respond to requests for comment. Macquarie Asset Management and GIC declined to comment.

First Gen, controlled by the Lopez family, is a Philippines-based clean energy company with assets spanning geothermal, hydro, wind, solar and natural gas.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A US-sanctioned supertanker laden with Iranian oil sailed outbound into the Gulf of Oman, before coming to a stop not long after exiting the strait, according to ship-tracking data.

A Greek-owned Suezmax filled with Saudi crude began signaling again, approaching Fujairah, outside the Persian Gulf, after it last indicated that it was in the gulf three days ago. Two small fuel tankers and two bulk carriers were also sailing through the strait in either direction.

Tensions have ratcheted higher in recent days as the US and Iran both try to assert authority over the waterway. Shipowners willing to cross Hormuz face a dilemma of taking an Iran-approved route and exposing themselves to compliance problems, or sailing along the Omani coast and risk getting attacked by Tehran. Some vessels have chosen to turn off their transponders, an approach the Greek tanker appears to have taken.

The US began its blockade of Iranian shipping on Tuesday, resuming a tactic used in April and May that was successful in constraining the Islamic Republic’s exports. Iran struck two United Arab Emirates-linked supertankers that had gone dark while transiting Hormuz with cruise missiles on Tuesday, according to the UAE’s defense ministry.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, backed down on a plan to impose a 20% charge on cargo through the strait after the US’s gulf allies urged him to drop it. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The collaboration combines SLB’s expertise in modular infrastructure and global project execution with Liberty Energy’s capabilities in modular power generation, behind-the-meter intelligent power controls, and operations.

Together, the companies aim to help developers deploy new data centre capacity faster while overcoming power supply constraints.

Quicker project turnaround 

The rapid expansion of AI is driving unprecedented demand for data centres, placing increasing pressure on electricity infrastructure.

As a result, developers are increasingly turning to behind-the-meter power solutions that can operate independently of traditional grid connections, enabling faster project delivery while improving reliability and operational flexibility.

“The bottleneck in AI infrastructure is no longer just compute. It is the ability to deliver infrastructure and power on the timelines the market now demands,” said Gavin Rennick, President of SLB’s New Energy and Industrial business.

“By bringing together complementary infrastructure and power capabilities, we will help developers accelerate deployment of new data centre capacity,” Rennik added. 

Meeting evolving needs

Under the agreement, SLB will provide modular infrastructure solutions, project execution expertise, and global market access, while Liberty Energy will contribute modular power generation systems, intelligent behind-the-meter controls, and operational support.

Ron Gusek, Chief Executive Officer of Liberty Energy, said the alliance reflects the changing requirements of AI-driven infrastructure. “The scale and complexity of AI energy infrastructure is fundamentally changing how power systems are built and deployed,” he said.

“Building on our long-standing relationship with SLB, we are excited to bring power solutions that address immediate capacity constraints while supporting the next generation of energy systems,” Gusek added. 

Beyond infrastructure deployment, the companies also plan to collaborate on technologies designed to improve the efficiency, flexibility, and environmental performance of future data centre energy systems.

Areas of focus include hybrid power systems, digital energy management platforms and advanced power architectures.

The partnership builds on SLB’s growing presence in the sector. Since April 2024, the company has shipped more than 1.3 GW of prefabricated modular infrastructure for data centre projects and expects cumulative global deliveries to exceed 2 GW by the end of this year.

Liberty Energy, meanwhile, plans to deploy approximately 3 GW of power projects by 2029, supporting the continued expansion of AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.

Over the past decade, this has significantly improved coordination, consistency, and digital delivery across the industry. As BIM continues to mature, the next opportunity is ensuring that it not only fulfills contractual requirements but also improves how decisions are made.

Saudi Arabia has become one of the world's leading catalysts for digital engineering transformation. Through Vision 2030 and PIF's portfolio of mega and giga projects, the Kingdom has accelerated the adoption of BIM at an unprecedented scale, setting new benchmarks for engineering excellence and digital delivery.

That distinction, between BIM as a submission and BIM as a way of working, remains one of the industry's most significant challenges. On large and complex projects, it is not simply a matter of efficiency. It directly affects project performance, delivery outcomes, and long-term asset value.

The compliance ceiling

BIM maturity and BIM value are not the same thing. A project can score well on every maturity indicator, including model coverage, coordination protocols, clash detection, and information management, and still leave the asset owner with a digital handover that offers further opportunities to strengthen operational readiness and long-term value.

This remains one of the industry's next areas of focus as organisations continue to advance their digital delivery capabilities. The reason is that BIM was framed, from the outset, as a documentation requirement.

Models must be produced, information must meet defined standards, and deliverables must be submitted at prescribed stages. Compliance establishes consistency. However, compliance should be viewed as the foundation rather than the destination. The next stage of maturity is ensuring that compliance also delivers measurable business value.

Ultimately, BIM delivers its greatest value when it moves beyond demonstrating compliance and becomes an integral part of how projects are planned, delivered, and managed.

The more important question is not whether a model was produced, but whether it changed how decisions were made. Did the model shape decisions, or simply record them after the fact? Were project teams able to rely on a single trusted source of information? Did field teams have timely access to the latest project information to support informed decisions?

Ultimately, BIM delivers its greatest value when it moves beyond demonstrating compliance and becomes an integral part of how projects are planned, delivered, and managed.

From design output to delivery platform

The next stage of BIM maturity is treating information as a project control asset rather than a design output. This means using BIM to improve predictability, strengthen decision-making, and enhance delivery performance throughout the project lifecycle.

Ultimately, owners do not invest in BIM for its own sake. They invest because better information reduces uncertainty, improves predictability, strengthens project controls, and enables better investment decisions throughout the asset lifecycle.

In that sense, BIM is not simply a digital engineering capability. It is an engineering and business enabler.

This includes testing construction sequencing through 4D planning before execution begins. It includes linking progress monitoring to field-verified information that updates schedules and forecasts in near real time. 

It also includes managing interfaces, risks, and construction constraints through a connected digital environment rather than disconnected workflows.

This is the principle behind Virtual Design and Construction (VDC). BIM no longer serves only as a representation of the project; it becomes an active platform for planning, coordination, monitoring, and control.

BIM no longer serves only as a representation of the project; it becomes an active platform for planning, coordination, monitoring, and control.

When effectively implemented, BIM supports better schedule certainty, improved productivity, stronger risk management, and greater visibility across the project lifecycle.

The foundation is data governance

Achieving this level of integration requires more than a software investment. The foundation for achieving this vision is trusted information through effective data governance.

Classification systems, naming conventions, common data environments, information ownership, and quality assurance processes determine whether project information can be trusted and used effectively. These fundamentals enable digital environments to remain connected, consistent, and trusted throughout project delivery and into operations.

Reliable information is what transforms BIM from a coordination tool into a business enabler. It provides decision-makers with greater visibility, supports executive reporting, improves project controls, and creates the confidence needed to support future digital capabilities across the asset lifecycle.

The handover challenge

Even on projects where BIM is actively used during construction, handover represents one of the greatest opportunities to maximise the long-term value of digital information. As projects become increasingly complex, ensuring that handover information is fully structured, validated, and readily usable within operational systems has become an important focus for industry.

For asset owners, the true value of BIM is realised when project information seamlessly supports operations from day one. For them, handover is not the end of a project. It is the beginning of an asset's operational life.

This is particularly important on mega and giga projects, where assets are expected to operate for decades and support entire communities, industries, and economies. The quality of information delivered at handover directly influences operational readiness, lifecycle performance, maintenance efficiency, and future investment decisions.

The industry has made significant progress in digital delivery. The next step is to ensure that this information continues to deliver value throughout the operational life of the asset.

Why this matters for Saudi Arabia

Through Vision 2030 and PIF's portfolio of mega and giga projects, Saudi Arabia is delivering some of the world's most ambitious and technologically advanced construction programs. The scale, complexity, and long-term impact of these projects make the conversation around BIM increasingly important.

The industry has already demonstrated the value of BIM adoption. The next opportunity is to build that foundation by unlocking greater intelligence, operational insight, and long-term value from project information.

The path from BIM to digital twins, connected assets, and AI-enabled operations is becoming increasingly clear. However, these capabilities depend on one critical prerequisite: trusted data.

The path from BIM to digital twins, connected assets, and AI-enabled operations is becoming increasingly clear. However, these capabilities depend on one critical prerequisite: trusted data.

Artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and digital twins will continue to unlock new opportunities as organisations strengthen the quality and governance of their information foundations. Information quality is the foundation upon which successful digital transformation is built.

As Saudi Arabia continues to shape the next generation of infrastructure, cities, and industrial assets, the ability to create trusted digital foundations will become a defining factor in long-term success.

Beyond better models

At Nesma & Partners, we see BIM as a strategic engineering capability that supports delivery excellence across the entire asset lifecycle. Realising that vision requires more than digital tools.

It requires trusted information, disciplined governance, and engineers with the capability to transform data into better decisions. That belief shapes not only how we deliver projects, but also how we develop future engineering capability.

Through our Early Graduate Programme, we are investing in the next generation of Saudi engineers, equipping them with digital engineering, BIM, and integrated project delivery capabilities so they can contribute to increasingly complex projects from the outset of their careers and help advance the Kingdom's long-term infrastructure ambitions.

Our focus is not on BIM maturity for its own sake. It is about ensuring that information continues to create measurable value through stronger project controls, improved delivery performance, and better outcomes for our clients and asset owners.

The measure of success is not whether a model was submitted. It is whether the information behind it improved decisions, strengthened project outcomes, and left owners with a foundation they can continue to build upon long after construction is complete. The future of BIM is not about better models. It is about better decisions.

PJM Interconnection LLC, which serves 13 states and Washington, DC, said Tuesday that its auction to procure power for the year starting June 2028 tied a $16.4 billion record set in late 2025. Data centers accounted for roughly $6.3 billion of that total, said Joseph Bowring, president of Monitoring Analytics, the grid’s independent market monitor. 

That data-center burden on PJM ratepayers amounts to almost $30 billion when figures from three previous auctions are included, he said during an interview. 

Meanwhile, the auction failed for a third straight time to secure enough future supply commitments to ensure reliability in coming years, underscoring the scale of the challenge posed by the artificial intelligence boom.

The failure to meet the reliability target is “not an acceptable way to go forward,” Bowring said. The grid needs to run an auction specifically for data centers so that consumers aren’t on the hook for the extra costs, he added.

The auction fell 6.8 gigawatts short of what PJM will need to guarantee system reliability during demand spikes. The shortfall is equivalent to almost seven traditional nuclear reactors.

“This year’s auction confirms an unacceptable trend: data center load growth is outpacing new electricity supply, degrading reliability, and keeping prices at the cap,” Claire Lang-Ree, a climate and energy advocate with the National Resources Defense Council, said in a statement. New power supplies “simply can’t keep up with the pace of data center load growth, and everyone is paying the price.”

The result ramps up the pressure on a grid that’s home to Virginia’s Data Center Alley and has borne the brunt of criticism for the struggle to manage the AI boom and sufficiently protect customers from soaring costs. Attention now shifts to an emergency procurement mechanism later this year that aims to shift the burden of ramping up power generation to hyperscalers.

“Such a shortage does not necessarily mean that the PJM system will be unable to serve load reliably in the delivery year,” the grid operator said in a statement. “It means that PJM would have to operate with slimmer reserves and a greater level of risk.”

The results released Tuesday show the daily cost of those payouts hit the price ceiling of $325 per megawatt-day, which will show up in users’ monthly utility bills.

Without the cap, the auction would have cleared at $554.72 for a total cost to ratepayers of almost $30 billion, PJM said. Prices in the Chicago area would have cleared at more than $775.

A searing heat dome earlier this month showed just how close the PJM grid is to reaching its limits, with power demand likely surpassing a record that had stood for over two decades. Without urgent action, the grid risks further deterioration with demand outstripping oncoming supply.

PJM already was under intense scrutiny with data centers and power generators saying they are not being connected fast enough as consumer groups and politicians hammer the grid for spiraling power bills. Those concerns are likely to come to a head at a July 23 conference called by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to discuss grid governance.

The latest auction result, intended to guarantee enough capacity is available for the few hours in a typical year when demand peaks, will also put further onus of an emergency measure slated for later this year to fill the supply gap and ensure data centers pay.

“PJM customers are left to pay high capacity costs while also facing the risks of undersupply,” Drew Maloney, president of the Edison Electric Institute, said in a statement. “America’s electric companies are working every day to lower costs and keep electricity as affordable as possible, but we need swift reform, in addition to the extraordinary measures currently underway, to get more power infrastructure of all types built across the region.”

PJM has yet to submit its proposal for exactly how that will work, but the process is set to get underway in September after heavy pressure from the White House and state governors. To meet that deadline, the grid operator will have to make a filing at FERC before the end of this month.

Costs would be even higher if not for the price cap first negotiated in 2024. While that has helped keep a lid on costs, PJM has noted that there’s a downside in that it deprives the market of a price signal to induce new plant construction.

PJM Chief Executive Officer David Mills recently described the situation as “untenable.”

PJM power prices jumped 76% during the first quarter due to rampant demand from data centers, according to a report from Monitoring Analytics, the grid’s independent market monitor.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) on Tuesday announced a pause for up to one year on state environmental permits for building more data centers, which require copious amounts of energy, water, and land for their infrastructure. The executive order applies to large data centers that use 50 megawatts or more of power — enough to provide electricity for roughly 9,000 and 40,000 homes.

AI’s Billion Dollar Tax Breaks: Data Center Incentives Fuel Backlash

Hochul’s action comes as states and the federal government are trying to remain competitive on artificial intelligence and generate jobs for communities, while also ensuring data centers don’t drain natural resources, the energy grid, or consumers’ wallets.

The governor’s move is designed to give New York State more time to put in place a regulatory framework for data center construction and figure out how big facilities will affect the environment and utility costs for ratepayers, according to a press briefing from members of the governor’s office. The pause is not intended to disrupt data center operations that benefit, for example, hospitals, education, or research, the governor’s aides said.

The New York State legislature in June passed legislation that would impose a one-year moratorium on certain permits for large data centers, among other provisions. Implementing the Responsible Data Center Development Act will take time, and the governor felt she needed to take immediate urgent action because of New Yorkers’ concerns, a Hochul aide told reporters.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) on Monday released a discussion draft that would create a national blueprint to prevent increased energy costs, pollution, and adverse effects on health related to data center buildout.

Hochul’s executive order directs the state’s Department of Public Service to conduct a generic environmental impact statement on the effects of new data centers on energy, water, and air quality. The governor also wants DPS to look at creating a state grid acceleration fund to require data centers to invest in New York’s grid infrastructure.

“As data center development threatens to hike up utility bills, deplete our natural resources, and create uncertainty for New Yorkers, it’s my responsibility to take action and lead,” Hochul said in a statement.

Hochul also plans to work the state legislature when it returns to eliminate sales tax subsidies for data centers, which would require legislative action, one of the aides said.

States, including New Jersey and Virginia, have been moving faster than the federal government to put more guardrails around data centers in response to cost and environment concerns from communities. Lawmakers including Reps. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have called for a national moratorium on AI data centers until Congress passes comprehensive legislation on the issue.

Data centers are creating jobs and attracting other investments, Dan Diorio, executive vice president of state policy and government affairs for the Data Center Coalition, said in a statment.

“As hundreds of billions of dollars are being deployed to build out the nation’s digital infrastructure, Gov. Hochul’s statewide moratorium on data centers will ensure that those investments, jobs, and economic activity flow elsewhere rather than to New York — with impacts far beyond the data center industry,” Dorio said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

PJM Interconnection LLC is scheduled to disclose results from a so-called capacity auction later Tuesday that sought supply commitments from power generators and other electricity suppliers for the June 2028-May 2029 period.

PJM, which serves 67 million customers across 13 states, failed in the previous two auctions to attract enough commitments to cover reliability requirements. This comes amid increasing anxiety and political furor over sky-high power bills and in the wake of a blistering heat wave that triggered record electricity demand. 

Tuesday’s auction results will determine how much PJM will pay power generators to secure capacity starting in mid-2028. An emergency auction already has been scheduled for later this year to cover any shortfalls in supply commitments.

“The tightness the auction is meant to price is playing out live,” Evercore ISI analysts Nicholas Amicucci and Sharon Wang wrote in a note. The recent heat wave was a “timely reminder” of how burdened the system has become.

PJM is at a crossroads as the traditional pricing and supply structures intended to incentivize market participation by generators and other providers have proved inadequate to the task. Balancing the interests of ratepayers, power producers, political leaders, industrial customers and the hyperscalers driving data center development is an increasingly tricky proposition.

The price collar intended to keep costs down for consumers is capped at $325 per megawatt-day, marginally lower than the previous sale in December. That mechanism has come in for criticism as a disincentive to power plant construction.

“Another print at the top end of the price collar will only increase the pressure to push data center demand off the grid, even at the cost of servicing the AI economy,” said Peter Gardett, chief executive of Noreva, a pricing data and risk-assessment platform. “We are witnessing the beginning of the great data center migration.”

Supplies weren’t always so tight in the PJM region, but the expansion of artificial intelligence is forcing the grid operator to employ some radical solutions to make sure the lights stay on. 

PJM Senior Vice President Adam Keech wrote in a blog post last month that recent auction results showed power demand is growing faster than new generation can be built, raising concerns about system reliability. The last auction in December saw households and businesses on the hook for a record $16.4 billion to secure power in the year starting June 2027, and fell short of procuring enough power to meet reliability requirements.

The biggest beneficiaries of the high prices tend to be independent power generators like Vistra Corp., Talen Energy Corp. and Constellation Energy Corp. All three saw their shares jump after the previous auction results.

Tuesday’s results will further raise the stakes of a key July 23 technical conference convened by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to discuss reforms of PJM’s governance amid heavy criticism that it’s not doing enough to meet the surge in data center demand while protecting consumers from rising costs.

“The challenges facing the electric system will not be solved overnight,” Keech wrote. “These challenges require longer-term solutions.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Shipments of lithium batteries and wind turbines increased by 38% and 36%, respectively, over January-June, according to Wang Jun, deputy director of China’s General Administration of Customs.

“As the global shift toward green and low-carbon development continues to gain momentum, rising investment and consumer demand in renewable energy sectors are increasingly aligned with China’s green product offerings,” Wang said at a media briefing on Tuesday.

The growth builds on an already strong first quarter, when lithium battery exports surged by 50% from the same period a year earlier. The sustained demand reflects a global search for alternative energy sources that has been hastened by the energy-supply crunch arising from the Middle East war.

“In the first half of this year, the situation in the Middle East was tense and global supply of chemical products was tight. China, with its complete industrial system and full-chain supporting capabilities, quickly seized the sudden external demands,” Wang said, adding that the country’s exports of basic organic chemicals and primary-shaped plastics also increased by 25% and 35% respectively.

The private sector, already a dominant force in China’s foreign trade, continued to play a pivotal role. Shipments of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar products by private companies recorded a 46% increase in the first half, according to China Customs’ spokesperson Lyu Daliang.

“This shows that private companies have emerged as a key supply pillar for the global green transformation,” Lyu said at the same briefing.

Overall, China’s growth in exports and imports topped all forecasts in June, as surging chip prices and global demand for hardware needed to power artificial intelligence data centers lift trade across Asia. The government agency will release more detailed trade data, including sector-specific breakdowns, on July 18.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The global crude benchmark climbed as much as 2.8% after surging almost 10% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $80. Trump demanded a 20% reimbursement on cargoes — or roughly $30 million on full supertankers carrying oil — as US forces concluded another round of strikes against Iran that may last several more days.

Oil has rebounded to its highest in almost a month, paring a second-quarter drop of about 30%, as the escalating conflict rekindles concerns over supplies from the Gulf. Iran had managed to export at least 57 million barrels of crude during a brief gap between two American naval blockades, highlighting what’s at stake for the global oil market now that restrictions are being reimposed. 

Iran has been quietly moving oil tankers through the strait over the past few days as hostilities escalated. Six US-sanctioned supertankers transited the waterway into the Gulf of Oman over the past week with their transponders turned off, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“They were just shipping oil out at unbelievable rates,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Management. “We think we’ll hang around this $80 level, unless there’s some movement one way or another on the strait. But I don’t think we’ll go to, like, $90 or $100. And if the strait reopens, we’ll go to $60 in one hell of a hurry.”

European natural gas surged as much as 3.3% to the highest in more than three months. Before the conflict, about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. 

The Joint Maritime Information Center said US Central Command will begin enforcement of a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. New York time on Tuesday. Trump said the US will be reimbursed by the countries it’s helping to protect in the strait, citing Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.

Iran’s army targeted US assets in Kuwait with drones and struck “a hostile vessel” with cruise missiles, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing an army statement. Meanwhile, the UAE said two of its tankers were attacked in Omani waters while transiting the southern route of the strait. 

Over the past month, Gulf producers had begun marketing additional crude after the interim agreement eased export concerns. The UAE in particular proved highly successful at moving barrels by utilizing shuttle tankers sailing dark, or with their transponders off.

The UAE told OPEC that it increased crude production to 3.8 million barrels a day in June, up 1.71 million barrels from May, according to a monthly report seen by Bloomberg on Monday, after finding workarounds to the Iran conflict and ramping up output following its departure from the producer group. 

The conflict also showed signs of widening beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s air defenses engaged with ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis on the country’s southern region, Alekhbariya reported, citing a Defense Ministry spokesman. Earlier, the Houthis said a Saudi airstrike hit Sanaa International Airport and vowed retaliation, opening another potential front in the area. 

Elsewhere, Trump will support a Russian sanctions bill championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, according to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity. That would revive efforts to penalize buyers of Russian oil and natural gas and increase pressure on the Kremlin to end its war with Ukraine. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Crude purchases plunged 41% year-on-year to 29.27 million tons, the least since October 2016, according to customs data on Tuesday. Imports were 12% lower than May, which were already the weakest in eight years.

The recent breakdown of the US-Iran truce clouds the prospects for any revival of cargoes through the contested Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East typically accounts for about half of China’s crude purchases. Still, the oil market is on watch for signs that imports have bottomed out and that Beijing will move to replenish stockpiles. 

Natural gas imports fared better, rising 3.7% in June to a five-month high of 10.93 million tons, with volumes boosted by increased seaborne imports due to a decline in domestic output and depleted storage buffers. Although the Iran war has choked shipments from a region that typically supplies about a third of China’s liquefied natural gas, the drop has mostly been offset by other sources.

China’s other main energy import, coal, saw shipments surge last month after a crackdown on mine safety curbed domestic supplies of the fuel.

Purchases in June soared 30% to 42.78 million tons, another five-month high. The blast at a mine in Shanxi province in May was the worst coal accident since 2009, prompting a nationwide review of safety practices. 

A confluence of factors, from Indonesian supply constraints to the impact of frequent rains on hydropower output, may keep a lid on imports in subsequent months. Still, China set a record for peak electricity consumption last week, and any extended heat waves could eat through stockpiles and necessitate a buying binge.

China’s other commodities trade data for June:

• Hormuz is also a channel for global fertilizer shipments. To conserve domestic supplies, China has responded by tightening controls over its exports, which plunged 48% year-on-year to 2.23 million tons, their lowest since April 2024.
• Aluminum exports, meanwhile, continued to strengthen, soaring 45% to a record 711,000 tons to help fill the global shortage caused by the war.
• Copper imports rose 3.1% to 478,000 tons, although the figure was lower than May as the US continues to attract cargoes ahead of possible tariffs from the Trump administration.
• Iron ore imports rose 6.4% to 112.69 million tons, the year’s high, on stronger shipments ahead of the end of the financial year in Australia, where most of China’s suppliers are based.
• Steel exports, which have helped offset poor domestic demand, remained strong, rising 6.6% to 10.32 million tons.
• Soybean imports increased 11% to 13.55 million tons, a 13-month high, on arrivals from both Brazil and the US following the trade truce with Washington. All eyes are on the second half of the year as Beijing ramps up purchases of American beans to meet its obligations.

On the Wire

China’s exports and imports expanded faster than forecast in June, as surging chip prices and global demand for hardware needed to power AI data centers lift trade across Asia.

Australia’s government has moved to block three China-linked shareholders of rare earths miner Northern Minerals Ltd. from voting or exercising other rights after they defied earlier orders to sell their stock.

China’s economic growth is expected to have weakened as of the mid-year mark, once again stoking questions about whether policymakers will accelerate government spending to ensure they meet their annual target.

Huawei Technologies Co.’s $11 billion clean energy empire is opening new markets.

China’s electric-vehicle industry is often seen as a success story of the central government creating global champions through subsidies, but breakthroughs came after years of decentralized experimentation and competition.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The facility will be built on a 43,669-square-metre site within SFZ and is expected to support the country’s industrial diversification ambitions by increasing local fertiliser production and boosting export capacity.

The project forms part of SFZ’s strategy to attract high-value manufacturing investments that strengthen industrial value chains and enhance the competitiveness of Oman’s industrial sector. 

Supporting Oman's Vision 2040

The development will leverage the free zone’s location on major international shipping routes, its integration with the Port of Salalah, and its logistics infrastructure to serve regional and global markets.

Once operational, the plant will manufacture ammonium sulfate fertiliser, a widely used agricultural input that improves soil fertility and crop yields. The facility is expected to help meet rising demand across regional and international markets while expanding the global reach of Omani industrial products.

The investment also complements the objectives of Oman Vision 2040 by expanding downstream manufacturing, increasing non-oil exports through the Port of Salalah, and reinforcing the Sultanate’s position as a regional hub for export-oriented industries serving Asia, Africa, and the GCC.

In addition to its industrial contribution, the project is expected to create skilled employment opportunities and generate business for Omani SMEs across sectors including logistics, engineering, construction, maintenance, and industrial services. 

The facility will also introduce advanced fertiliser production technologies designed to improve efficiency and promote more sustainable manufacturing practices.

Dr Ali Tabook, Chief Executive Officer of Salalah Free Zone, said the project would strengthen the free zone’s growing chemicals manufacturing cluster.

“This project represents a strategic addition to Salalah Free Zone’s growing chemical manufacturing portfolio and reflects our commitment to attracting investments that build integrated industrial value chains rather than standalone production facilities,” he said.

Developing local talent

He added that SFZ aims to develop an industrial ecosystem where investors benefit from integrated logistics infrastructure, industrial services, and access to international markets, helping improve the competitiveness of their operations.

Dr Tabook also highlighted the long-term growth prospects for the fertiliser industry, noting that rising global demand for agricultural products continues to support investment in chemical manufacturing.

“We see this investment as an important opportunity to strengthen Salalah Free Zone’s contribution to this vital sector by leveraging Salalah’s competitive advantages as a global logistics hub connecting manufacturers with key international markets efficiently and reliably, while supporting Oman’s economic diversification agenda and the expansion of non-oil exports,” he said.

McDermott has a long-standing legacy in the gas sector. How are you leveraging your execution capabilities to shape and scale the global LNG landscape?

With more than 60 years of LNG experience, McDermott continues to play a defining role in delivering complex infrastructure at scale. Our fully integrated delivery model – combining in-house engineering, procurement, fabrication, marine assets and a global supply chain – gives us greater control over cost, schedule and quality, enabling safe, predictable execution across geographies.

This integrated approach allows us to support the rapid expansion of LNG capacity in response to growing global demand, while maintaining execution certainty in increasingly complex environments. By aligning engineering and construction strategies from early project phases, we reduce interface risks and improve project resilience, ensuring we deliver reliable, lower-cost energy solutions at scale.

Drawing on your recent work at Golden Pass LNG, Mozambique LNG and Woodfibre LNG, how do you determine when to deploy modular versus self-perform or subcontract type stick-built execution strategies in challenging environments?

Our approach is grounded in flexibility. Every project is assessed based on location, labour availability, site constraints and schedule drivers to determine the optimal execution strategy. McDermott is uniquely positioned to deploy both modular and stick-built approaches, enabling us to tailor solutions that optimise constructability, cost and timelines. At Woodfibre LNG, for example, modularisation plays a central role, with major modules fabricated in controlled yard environments and transported to site, significantly reducing on-site labour requirements and complexity. 

Our approach is grounded in flexibility. Every project is assessed based on location, labour availability, site constraints and schedule drivers to determine the optimal execution strategy. McDermott is uniquely positioned to deploy both modular and stick-built approaches, enabling us to tailor solutions that optimise constructability, cost and timelines. 

- Rob Shaul, Senior Vice President of Low Carbon Solutions at McDermott

This approach enhances safety and quality, while minimising weather-related disruptions and enabling more efficient use of space. By shifting critical construction activities into controlled fabrication environments, we improve schedule certainty, increase efficiency and reduce on-site labour requirements by up to 70%. In contrast, projects such as Golden Pass LNG highlight McDermott’s ability to deliver complex, field-intensive construction scopes in environments that require extensive on-site execution using direct-hire labour. In other locations, such as Mozambique, our deep supply chain relationships enable us to deliver projects through our direct management of construction subcontractors.

Additionally, our early-stage involvement in projects such as Monkey Island LNG and the Rovuma LNG Phase I demonstrates how the right execution approach is evaluated and defined to align with project-specific drivers. Ultimately, this ability to flex between execution models and to define the right approach from early engineering through to construction is critical to delivering LNG projects successfully across a wide range of environments.

How does McDermott’s “concept-to-commissioning” approach support clients across the full project lifecycle, and how does this deep involvement position you for subsequent phases?

McDermott’s concept-to-commissioning model enables seamless integration across all phases of project delivery, from early-stage engineering through to construction and start-up. By engaging early, we help optimise design, execution strategy and overall project economics, creating a strong foundation for successful delivery. 

This approach strengthens collaboration with clients and partners, improves visibility on cost and schedule, and supports more informed decision-making throughout the lifecycle. It also enables us to de-risk projects by proactively addressing constraints, reducing rework and enhancing overall efficiency.

Importantly, this end-to-end approach fosters long-term relationships and positions McDermott for subsequent project phases. Our role in large-scale developments such as Mozambique LNG demonstrates our ability to sustain execution through complex project cycles, reinforcing our position as a trusted partner across the LNG value chain.

With projects like Woodfibre LNG aiming for net-zero operations, how is McDermott embedding low-carbon solutions and digital transformation into early-stage designs for future LNG facilities?

Sustainability and innovation are embedded from the earliest stages of design. McDermott integrates low-carbon solutions and renewable energy sources to reduce emissions and improve facility performance.

At Woodfibre LNG, the use of hydroelectric power significantly lowers emissions, supporting the development of one of the world’s lowest-emission LNG facilities and enabling approximately 30–90% lower emissions compared to conventional developments.

This demonstrates how execution strategy can directly advance industry decarbonisation. More broadly, modular execution contributes to sustainability by reducing construction-related emissions and minimising site disturbance through efficient, yard-based fabrication.

Digital tools and advanced design optimisation further enhance efficiency, enabling higher output from smaller footprints and improved overall project performance. By combining these innovations with our integrated delivery model, McDermott is helping clients deliver next-generation LNG facilities that are scalable, cost-effective and aligned with global decarbonisation goals.

Governor Mikie Sherrill signed legislation Monday to set up a competitive process to evaluate proposed projects, but also contains safeguards to protect ratepayers from potential cost overruns, according to a statement. 

The initiative demonstrates the rising interest in nuclear energy as demand for power climbs across the nation. However, it also reflects concerns about the industry’s history of cost overruns and delays. The last major US nuclear project involved two reactors in Georgia that was seven years behind schedule and cost more than $35 billion, more than double the original projection. 

“The decisions we make today will determine the future we leave our kids,” Sherrill said in the statement. 

While there’s strong interest in tapping fission to meet the increased need for electricity across the country, there’s little chance of any new reactors going into service anytime soon. It can take years to get all the needed permits and build a new nuclear plant, and only three have been completed in the US this century.

New Jersey gets more than 40% of its power from nuclear plants, but until April the state had rules in place that effectively prohibited construction of new reactors. Sherrill campaigned on addressing rising energy prices, and on her first day in office in January signed executive orders to set up a task force to evaluate developing nuclear projects. 

The legislation signed Monday includes provisions that shield ratepayers from cost overruns and delay any cost pass-alongs until a project is built and delivering electricity.   

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company is in talks with potential technology customers to tap “mini data-center capabilities” of those systems, Powell said Monday on Bloomberg TV. 

Sunrun unveiled its distributed AI compute program last week as part of an effort by the company to tap into the demand from data centers for electricity and computing power. Shares of the nation’s biggest home solar company have slumped more than 30% this year due to investor concerns about a contraction in its main business after the federal tax credit for buying panels was eliminated.

Under the new Sunrun program, customers could make money for hosting a computer the size of a small filing cabinet. The computing capability would be aggregated and sold to technology companies racing to build out data center capacity for artificial intelligence. Sunrun said it expects to complete the pilot over the coming months and will assess the results before launching a broader rollout.

Sunrun is offering customers “another way to use that energy, if they choose, and to get compensated for it,” Powell said of the AI computing pilot program. “It could range from a couple hundred dollars to more than that in a month.”

The company has yet to release details on the economics or buyers of the distributed computing power. 

Separately, Sunrun announced an agreement with Tesla Inc. and Renew Home to aggregate more than 16 gigawatts of flexible home energy capacity for hyperscalers and utilities. The company has yet to announce a buyer of that capacity.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

That’s according to George Bilicic, global head of power, energy and infrastructure at Lazard Inc., which tracks the so-called levelized cost of energy. That’s the long-term electricity price a power-plant must get to break even. 

For combined cycle gas plants, that rose to $90 a megawatt-hour in 2026, according to a report Monday. That’s up from $78 a year earlier and the highest since 2009, the earliest year in the data, when the cost was $83.

It’s not just gas that’s getting more expensive. The cost for solar rose to $69 a megawatt-hour and onshore wind increased to $68, both up more than 10% from a year ago and the highest since at least 2014. 

The findings help illuminate why utility bills are climbing in parts of the US. High electric costs have emerged as a key issue for voters, and are a talking point in the runup to the midterm elections in November.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Global benchmark Brent rose above $79 a barrel, after rallying by more than 5% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. US Central Command said on Monday it struck dozens of targets on Sunday to degrade Iran’s ability to attack international shipping passing through the waterway. 

Iran had said on Sunday the strait would be closed “until further notice,” as the Islamic Republic’s forces launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on American allies across the Middle East, including Jordan and Qatar. In addition, Kuwait said an offshore drilling platform had been hit and damaged.

Crude has rebounded this month as the uncertainty reinserted a war premium into prices, erasing some of the declines seen in May and June after an interim peace deal offered the prospect of more supply. The flare-up risks derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, the International Energy Agency said on Friday — a reminder of what’s at stake for the global economy if the conflict continues.

The latest flare-up remains escalatory but “well short of all-out hostilities,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “We are likely to see oil prices inch higher for as long as the strikes continue and passage through the strait remains more hesitant.”

Traffic through Hormuz — which normally carried about a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies — was almost nonexistent on Monday, extending a slowdown since tensions flared up last week. Even so, the Joint Maritime Information Center said the southern shipping lane coordinated by Oman remains available.

European natural gas also rose on concern the escalation could hamper shipments. Futures added as much as 2.7% after gaining almost 8% last week.  

The re-escalation has dimmed prospects for diplomacy. Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared the “era of one-sided deals is OVER,” while Tehran insisted Washington must honor commitments on Hormuz and the normalization of its oil exports before talks can resume. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, declared the ceasefire “OVER” but said the US remained willing to continue negotiations.

The attack on the Kuwaiti drilling facility at the weekend marked the first direct strike on energy infrastructure in weeks, and if the conflict expanded to target energy infrastructure more broadly, oil could head to $100, Kavonic said. 

In the past month, Persian Gulf producers including the United Arab Emirates marketed additional crude after the interim agreement eased concerns over exports. The Emiratis, in particular, were among the most successful in getting barrels out using shuttle tankers that sail dark, or with transponders off.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Washington’s July 7 revocation of the sanctions waiver covering Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, followed by its largest strikes on Iran since the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding was signed and the Iranian strikes on US military sites in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait over the weekend, has brought the conflict back to a familiar crossroads: renewed military escalation or another reluctant attempt at diplomacy.

Iran, which has been firing at vessels attempting to cross Hormuz through Oman’s territorial waters in a bid to assert its exclusive oversight of the waterway as it reopened to commercial traffic, had vowed a “crushing response” to the latest US strikes.

A framework for restoring stability

The latest turn of events should alarm markets but not surprise them.

The MoU was never a robust framework for restoring stability after more than three months of a conflict, during which a stubborn chasm between Washington and Tehran on key issues repeatedly frustrated diplomacy.

The final product was a poor attempt at rapprochement between two adversaries whose differences had not really been bridged. It was a vaguely worded 14-point document that was sufficient to pause the war, but not to dependably reopen the world’s most important oil chokepoint – a task that demands clarity, consistency and confidence.

The market’s belief that Hormuz was on a steady path back to normality proved both premature and misplaced. The latest events have merely confirmed what the agreement always implied: reopening the Strait would prove considerably harder than reopening diplomacy.

The seeds of the latest crisis were sown in Point 5 of the MoU, which governs the reopening of the Strait. It required Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” and promised that Tehran would levy no charges for 60 days. But it failed to answer the most important question: who controls shipping through Hormuz during the interim period?

Centre of the new crisis

That omission has now become the centre of the crisis.

Two competing transit regimes have emerged. The US, Oman and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) support a southern corridor adjoining Omani waters for commercial shipping. Iran insists that vessels should instead use a northern route through its territorial waters after obtaining clearance from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Washington rejects that position outright, arguing that Hormuz must revert to its pre-war regime of free navigation.

The international shipping, insurance and trading communities need a single, publicly understood set of rules. They need to know which lanes are safe, who is responsible for security, what legal regime applies and whether a transit will be treated as lawful by both sides. Instead, they were given rival interpretations of the same agreement.

Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU

Iran’s continued strikes on vessels using or approaching the US-backed Omani corridor signal that Tehran is attempting to establish facts on the water before any permanent governance regime is negotiated. Washington’s response — revoking the oil sanctions waiver and striking Iranian coastal sites — demonstrates with equal clarity that it is unwilling to accept Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU.

Whether the conflict escalates or diplomacy resumes, the market must now factor in a more complicated picture: the Strait may not be closed in the old sense, but nor will it be reliably open in the commercial sense.

Once all the stranded tankers have escaped and the prompt barrels have been absorbed, the market will face a new fundamental reality. If empty tankers remain reluctant to return, insurance stays prohibitively expensive and rival transit regimes persist, the Gulf export system may not fully normalise for many months to come.

Layer of uncertainty

The Treasury’s 10-day wind-down period for Iranian oil transactions adds another layer of uncertainty. Iranian crude was already facing cautious buyers unsure whether sanctions relief would survive beyond its initial 60-day window. That uncertainty has now been resolved in the most bearish way for Tehran and the most bullish way for crude.

Physical balances remain comfortable for now. But a prolonged disruption to Gulf exports would rapidly swing the market from abundance towards scarcity. Severely depleted commercial and strategic stockpiles around the world mean the protective buffers of the past four months are gone.

The next move belongs to Tehran. Markets will now focus on whether Iran attempts once again to choke off Hormuz or whether both sides, however reluctantly, return to diplomacy.

A clear definition of peace

If negotiations resume, the next agreement cannot simply stop the shooting. It must define the peace. That means a clear, unified and publicly communicated understanding of how Hormuz is to operate during the interim period — who governs transits, which corridors vessels should use, what role Oman and the IMO can play, when the international Traffic Separation Scheme channels are expected to be de-mined and reopened, and whether Iran has any recognised authority to clear or charge commercial shipping.

That would be only the first step towards repairing the MoU’s fault lines. More fundamental disputes — from Lebanon's security arrangements to Iran's nuclear programme — remain unresolved and will require far greater honesty, precision and political courage than the first attempt at rapprochement. Without that, any peace is likely to prove as fragile as the agreement that sought to deliver it.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called on the European Union to reconsider its opposition to new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic, arguing that the region could play a critical role in strengthening Europe’s long-term energy security.

Speaking in Brussels, IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol urged the European Commission to take “a very close look” at its opposition to new Arctic oil and gas exploration, arguing that Norway remains one of Europe’s most reliable energy partners.

“I support the Commission to give a very close look at this issue, because it is extremely important for the European energy security,” Dr Birol added.  

“The world needs every drop of oil from Norway,” Dr Birol said, describing the country as a trusted supplier that “will not use energy as a weapon.” 

The EU currently supports a moratorium on new Arctic drilling on environmental grounds, but the policy is under increasing scrutiny as Europe seeks to strengthen its energy resilience. 

Norway, which is not an EU member but is the bloc’s largest supplier of natural gas, has repeatedly called on Brussels to abandon its support for the ban.

Norway’s mature gas fields are expected to decline during the 2030s unless new discoveries are made beyond existing producing areas, increasing the importance of future Arctic exploration.

Environmental groups have criticised any move to relax restrictions on Arctic drilling, arguing that new projects could take more than a decade to begin production and would do little to address Europe’s immediate energy security challenges. 

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that. But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

- Jens Stoltenberg, Norwegian Finance Minister

Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said the recent disruption to global energy markets highlighted the importance of maintaining Norwegian oil and gas production.

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that,” he said. “But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

A new electrification strategy

In Europe’s increasingly complex energy strategy, the bloc is seeking secure and dependable fossil fuel supplies as it works to eliminate Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027. But at the same time, it is accelerating electrification and expanding renewable energy to cut emissions.

Draft proposals seen by Reuters show the European Commission plans to unveil a new electrification strategy on 17 July, which aim to reduce Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels after multiple geopolitical conflicts sharply increased oil and gas prices. 

Since late February, the war has added an estimated $57.1 billion to the EU’s oil and gas import bill, according to EU data.

The draft electrification strategy proposes setting a 2040 target for the minimum share of the EU’s overall energy consumption that should come from electricity. 

While no specific percentage has yet been included, the objective is to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to electricity across transport, buildings, and industry.

The strategy would support wider adoption of electric vehicles, encourage households to replace gas boilers with heat pumps, and promote the electrification of industrial processes by replacing fossil fuel-powered equipment with electric alternatives.

Financial and regulatory measures 

To help offset the high initial costs of sustainable energy technology, the Commission is exploring a variety of financial and regulatory measures.

These include exploring mandatory heat pump installations in public buildings through revised public procurement rules, stronger procurement targets for electric vehicles, and a framework allowing member states to reduce value-added tax (VAT) on household batteries, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

Brussels also plans to launch an EU funding auction later this year to support industrial projects that generate heat using electricity and renewable energy, alongside proposals to phase out fossil fuel subsidies to improve the competitiveness of electricity relative to oil and gas.

The draft strategy describes energy independence as a strategic priority, stating that “an energy-independent Union powered by clean, abundant, homegrown, cybersecure, and affordable energy is a matter of sovereignty” and calling for a “radical shift towards efficient electrification of demand.”

But this crowd had gathered for something else entirely — a chance to glimpse cutting-edge panel and battery technology from one of the world’s top solar manufacturers, China’s Jinko Solar Co.

Economies across Asia have been hit by soaring utility bills in the months since the war in the Middle East upended oil and gas markets, prompting many to rethink power supply. In the Philippines, households and businesses have embraced green alternatives, and created a welcome boon for Beijing’s solar producers  in the process.

It has become China’s single-biggest overseas market for solar panels for the first time this year, outpacing even success stories like Pakistan. Only the Netherlands, a hub for northwest Europe, imports more.

“Electricity bills here are increasing,” said Cesar Arriaga, who lives in the city’s suburbs and came along to learn about how to buy and install panels. “I like the Chinese products not only because they’re cheap, but because they’re technologically competitive.”

China is the source of the world’s most inexpensive and most advanced solar technology, producing about 80% of global supply. But it has also been producing far too much of a good thing — meaning new markets are vital for the industry’s survival.

China’s solar exports to the Philippines more than doubled in the first five months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to Trade Data Monitor. In March alone, imports jumped 262% year-on-year. Filipino buyers have spent more than half a billion dollars on Chinese panels so far in 2026.

Granted, some of that is down to suppliers front-loading shipments ahead of changes to Chinese export tax rebates. But analysts and industry insiders say the trend will prove a lasting one, even amid on-off tensions between the two countries, including disputes in the South China Sea.

One indicator is that demand has now expanded far beyond Manila into regional centers like Davao, where enthusiasts crammed the mall, fueling a leap in revenue. In 2025, Jinko’s sales to the Philippines were equivalent to nearly 1.5GW, handing it a market share of more than a quarter. In the first six months of this year, it has already shipped close to 1GW. The popularity of higher-end N-type modules, particularly effective in hot climates, have raised the company’s average selling price overseas and its profit margins.

“Based on the current pace, we expect a more pronounced market boom and demand change in the Philippines in the second half of this year,” Jinko said in response to Bloomberg queries.

That enthusiasm may well be enough to counter efforts by Manila to tighten control of imported solar equipment. Policymakers have proposed that solar systems and components should be certified by the country’s national standards body to ensure product safety, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported. Still, unlike the US and parts of Europe, where governments have imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels and modules to shield domestic manufacturers, the Philippines has shown little sign of pursuing broader trade barriers.

In large part, that is because both sides stand to benefit from the current boom. Import-dependent Philippines gains access to low-cost renewable technology which is easy to deploy even in an island nation, while Chinese manufacturers can tap a fast-growing export market.

“The Philippines has so much to gain by embracing solar: less pressure on retail electricity price rises, less imported gas and oil, and overall cheaper electricity for customers,” said veteran electricity analyst Dave Jones at energy think tank Ember. “Electricity prices are so high. With customers fearful that prices will rise further, this provides a firm impetus to act now.”

Chinese manufacturers also want to move quickly to tap overseas markets, especially if that means profits for an industry that has been mired in losses for years. While the Philippines remains relatively small compared to China’s behemoth domestic market, rising demand here — alongside other major importers like Pakistan — is providing an important outlet for excess capacity.

Other factors help. The Philippines has long been a key adopter of renewable power, ahead of many others in the Southeast Asian region, with a strong pipeline of wind and solar projects in development as it tries to keep up with expanding consumption. The country has also been active in encouraging foreign players to enter its clean-energy sector by allowing full foreign ownership and easing access to local financing.

“The Philippines is a key renewable market in Southeast Asia, driven by a clear structural need,” said Geoffrey Jahnke, chief operating officer at Peak Energy, which develops clean energy projects in Asia. Demand for electricity continues to rise, and the country is still exposed to imported fuel price volatility and needs more “stable, domestically supplied energy,” he said.

Rising electricity costs have provided a fresh impetus to clean up the grid, given most of that surge is directly linked to dependence on imported fossil fuels. Power prices in the Philippines have jumped at least 14% this year from last year, said Robert Liew, an analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The nation now has the costliest residential electricity price in Southeast Asia, and the second-highest commercial price, according to a May report published by Ember. 

To try to cushion the shock from Persian Gulf disruption, the government began offering low interest loans of up to 500,000 pesos ($8,124) for residential clean energy. It has also fast-tracked more than 30 renewable projects.

That means cheap Chinese solar panels are now a viable way for households to save money. Payback for a residential rooftop project can be as short as a little more than three years, down from four years in May 2025, according to Ember.

As a result, the industry is booming, as seen in Davao’s crowded mall, with exports to the Philippines smashing records in March. Average weekly rooftop solar installations have risen 170% since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late-February, according to New Energy Nexus. 

The only catch is that with customer inquiries surging 582%, demand is running ahead of what the market can physically deliver, held back by supply chain shortages and limited numbers of installers.

“The supply chain was not built to absorb a demand shock of this size,” New Energy Nexus said in an April report.

For producers like Jinko and rival Trina Solar Co., it is still an opportunity that cannot be passed up.

“The market is moving from buying panels as standalone components toward planning solar as part of a wider energy system,” Trina Solar, another Chinese manufacturer, said in response to Bloomberg queries. “We are confident in meeting this demand.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The procurement process is underway, with a preferred bidder expected to be selected before the vote, Energy Minister Simeon Brown said in an interview last week. Prices for LNG are forecast to continue to come down as new supply outside of New Zealand becomes available, he said. 

The South Pacific nation relies heavily on hydropower, which leaves it vulnerable to dry years when there is little rain or snow to fill the lakes. There were shortages of electricity and prices spiked in 2024 during one such period, and the government plans to have the shipboard import terminal and regasification plant running by 2028 to mitigate that risk. 

“Every four years we have a dry year,” Brown said, adding that dwindling domestic supplies mean the country needs to look overseas. “If we can’t get the gas out of the ground domestically, we’re going to need it somewhere else. We see it as an insurance against the dry year risk, it’s about resilience, it’s about reliability, and also about affordability.

The electricity companies, known as “gentailers” in New Zealand because they both generate and retail electricity, have to work out how they will pay for the plan, Brown emphasized. “We’ve said it very clearly, it’s their obligation to fund this, because it’s their dry year risk that they must manage.”

“We’re in commercial negotiations for the gentailers to run a commercial funding model for them to pay for it,” he said.

While the long-term solution to the question of energy reliability may include renewable options, Brown emphasized that the LNG import plan was the only solution that could be done quickly, and be in place in just a few years for when there is a repeat of the 2024 dry year. 

“We’re not prepared as a government to leave New Zealand in a position where we effectively have a deindustrialization of our country, because we don’t have the molecules to be able to create electrons to keep the lights on,” he said, criticizing the Labour government’s 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and lack of planning for the transition to a lower-carbon economy. 

“Gas is critical to the transition. It is a critical transition fuel to enable that transition in a smooth manner,” he said. “We’ve ended up with a very unsmooth transition, which is a direct result of the previous government’s policies.”

The global LNG market had been expected to move into a glut this year, however the shutdown of Qatar’s export plant, the world’s biggest, due to the war in Iran has tightened the outlook. The conflict has also highlighted the dangers of relying on energy from the Middle East.

New Zealand has now built up a substantial coal stockpile at the coal-fired power plant in Huntly in case there is a dry year before the LNG plant is available, Brown said, adding that this provides “a significant amount of additional resilience that we didn’t have going into 2024.”

The opposition Labour Party is opposed to the plan, and the question is likely to be hotly debated ahead of the election later this year. The party’s energy spokeswoman Megan Woods has called it a “knee jerk reaction” to waning gas supplies, which is “excessive and rushed, and rules out viable alternatives.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, the Joint Maritime Information Center said in a note. Describing the threat-level in the strait as still “severe,” it told mariners to expect radio communications with naval forces and be aware of a danger from mines.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced earlier Sunday it wouldn’t allow any vessels to pass the strait until foreign interference ends, accusing the US of seeking to create disruptions. 

American forces struck Iran for a third time in a week overnight, after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit nine nautical miles off the Omani coast, causing a fire and forcing the crew to abandon the vessel.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas once moved — has been central to US-Iran peace negotiations. A fresh barrage of assaults early Sunday that saw the Islamic Republic target at least five American allies in the region, including Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, are putting a ceasefire that began last month under extreme stress.

There was almost no visible traffic in the strait on Sunday, with only two oil products tankers seen approaching the waterway. 

Crew from the struck container ship were rescued by local authorities, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported, while India said one of its nationals who was onboard is missing.

The IRGC halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite a warning, according to Iran’s IRIB news agency. The Fars agency also reported Iranian forces had “struck and halted a second non-compliant vessel,” though it didn’t provide further details.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Once fully completed in 2028, the two Russian-designed reactors at the Rooppur facility will be able to supply as much as 15% of the country’s electricity. The project is an audacious bet that nuclear power can meet the needs of an industrializing economy without breaking the bank, and other developing nations across the world will be watching closely.

Atomic power has undergone a renaissance over the last few years. While safety risks and heavy cost overruns saw the world sour on nuclear, especially after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011, those concerns are now being surpassed by the need to decarbonize and meet a surge in power demand from artificial intelligence and the electrification of transport fleets.

For developing nations like Bangladesh, atomic energy is less about data centers and more to do with weaning their economies off fossil fuels and reducing their vulnerability to external shocks like the Iran war. With oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf upended by the conflict, long lines at filling stations became routine, homes in the countryside had to cope with hours of daily blackouts, and factory output suffered. 

“The recent geopolitical conflicts — Iran and Russia-Ukraine — have shown that a scarcity of resources hurts poorer countries more than rich ones,” said R. Srikanth, who heads the energy, environment and climate change program at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru in India. “That strengthens the case for nuclear in emerging economies.”

The 2.4 gigawatt project has been more than a decade in the making, a period marked by a series of upheavals including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war. Those events are an endorsement of Bangladesh’s strategy of reducing its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, but they’ve also pushed Rooppur beyond its original timeline of commissioning the first unit by 2023.

The project has been inherited by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who came to power in elections in February, and chimes with his government’s efforts to revive growth after years of dictatorship came to an end in 2024. 

The first reactor is now expected to become fully operational by the start of 2027, with the second one to follow a year later, according to Md. Zahedul Hassan, managing director at Nuclear Power Plant Co. Bangladesh Ltd., the facility’s operator.

Like other developing economies, though, Bangladesh has found that nuclear projects come with expanding costs. Under the main contract with Russian state-owned company Rosatom, the plant will cost around $12.65 billion, including the first few years’ fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. But in local-currency terms, that cost has now increased by almost a quarter since the project was approved a decade ago, thanks to a sharp weakening of the Bangladeshi taka against the dollar.

“The delay has had a massive financial implication for Bangladesh,” said Md. Shafiqul Islam, a professor of nuclear engineering at Dhaka University. “A timely completion would have not only avoided this massive cost escalation but would have also helped us trim our fossil fuel import bill.” 

Plant operator Hassan, while declining to give details on the estimated cost of generation, is adamant that it will be value for money for the country. 

“If you assess from the point of view of assurance of long-term supplies, safeguards against supply chain issues as well as the cost of generation, it’s very much competitive,” he said. 

Bangladesh is now exploring small modular reactors as a longer-term hedge against energy shocks and is in early talks with suppliers including Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Chinese manufacturers, according to Power and Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood.

“The government is looking at plants generating 300 to 400 megawatts, small enough to be built along riverbanks and deployed faster than conventional reactors,” he said. “We will not go for large-scale plants anymore because there are huge liabilities.”

Even the most committed nations will have to deal with the high upfront capital outlay, long construction times, and the risk of delays that increase costs, until new technologies, such as SMRs, mature. The benefits of nuclear power is that it’s low-carbon, reliable and continuous, making it an ideal baseload electricity source to pair with intermittent renewables, like solar and wind, for the energy transition.

“The Rooppur plant will ensure Bangladesh doesn’t need to build any new baseload capacity in the next five to seven years,” said Shafiqul Alam, the lead Bangladesh analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “That’s going to provide the opportunity to accelerate renewables installations and invest in grid modernization.”  

Growing confidence in the country’s abilities, evident from the visitors posing for selfies in front of the plant, has been instrumental in gathering public support for the Rooppur project, Dhaka University’s Islam said. 

Other developing nations may also be driven by similar sentiments, with the perception of modernity about nuclear energy adding to the hype around it, according to Toby Dalton, a senior fellow and co-director for the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

He cautioned that governments need to first put in place all the elements needed to run a nuclear plant sustainably, including a competent workforce, a credible and independent regulator, broad public approval, and mechanisms for handling spent fuel. 

“I worry that the hype that’s been built around nuclear may push countries to make some bad choices,” Dalton said. “I don’t think any developing economy wants to be a laboratory for a technology that hasn’t been proven and demonstrated elsewhere.” 

Another catch is the dearth of options when it comes to buying the technology, a deal that comes with long-term ties. The global nuclear market is controlled by a handful of suppliers, including the US, Russia, China, France and South Korea, that use a limited number of reactor technologies. 

China and Russia dominate the world’s 80 reactors under-construction, most of which are in Asia, data from the World Nuclear Association show. The two countries have aggressively pushed their existing technologies — as well as those years away from maturity — to drive interest and widen their geopolitical influence.

“For developing economies, nuclear power is also a tool for long-term national development, strengthening energy security, driving industrialization and building advanced engineering and scientific expertise domestically,” Russia’s Rosatom said in an emailed response to questions.

The challenge of high capital costs is addressed by the Russian model that provides credit to customers so the upfront costs can be paid back over 20 to 25 years, said Srikanth, at the Institute for Advanced Studies.

For Bangladesh, developments in its South Asian neighborhood have added to the appeal of nuclear. 

India has a plan to expand atomic power capacity eleven-fold to 100 gigawatts by 2047, with Rosatom building four 1-gigawatt reactors at Kudankulam, a small fishing town near the southernmost tip of the country. In Pakistan, China has supplied six reactors that constitute nearly 3.3 gigawatts of generation capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association.

“The Rooppur project has added a sense of pride among local residents,” said Islam, from Dhaka University. “They now think if India and Pakistan can do it, so can we.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In the early stages of the Iran war, concerns over local fuel availability prompted China to curb sales of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to overseas customers. Asia’s top crude consumer later eased those rules, including by granting more export permits earlier this month.

Now a flare-up in violence — along with a US move to revoke a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil — threatens an interim US-Iran peace deal and is heightening Beijing’s fears of renewed interruptions to crude and fuel supply, the people said, asking not to be identified as discussions aren’t public. 

At least two major refineries have been asked to maintain or increase run rates, the people said, despite China’s elevated gasoline and diesel inventories and a structural slowdown in consumption of both.

Even prior to the conflict, Beijing maintained strict control of oil-product shipments via a quota system. Export quotas for July won’t be revised, one of the people said.

One consequence of higher run rates, however, will be additional pressure on regional refining margins, with the spread between Asian gasoline prices and Dubai crude already falling to its lowest level since late March.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, responsible for economic planning, didn’t immediately reply to Bloomberg queries sent outside of regular working hours.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“In the short term, it’s possible” that the energy crisis worsens, Descalzi said in an interview published on Saturday, while warning that Europe will remain heavily dependent on US liquefied natural gas to rebuild storage before winter. 

Competition for oil and gas is set to intensify as inventories shrink, with Europe in need to buy about 35 billion cubic meters of LNG to reach its 80% storage target before winter, he said. Italy is ahead of European peers, with gas stockpiles already at about 70% of capacity, he added.

Europe should use the “unprecedented succession of crises” — from the Covid-19 pandemic to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict involving Iran — as a starting point to address energy security, Descalzi said.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has marked a turning point for global energy security, with the risk of disruptions at strategic shipping chokepoints likely to raise transport and financing costs as well as insurance premiums, he said, adding that there is now a “before and after Hormuz.”

Europe should diversify energy sources and supplier nations while continuing to invest in hydrocarbons alongside renewables, carbon capture, biofuels and nuclear power, Descalzi said. He identified North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia as key regions for future supply diversification.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to settle near $71 a barrel, but still notched a weekly gain of roughly 4%. Brent futures also fell to close near $76 a barrel. 

The two sides are continuing technical discussions, according to a US official, after US forces’ two-day campaign against targets in the Islamic Republic had cast doubt on the prospect. A Qatari delegation arrived in Iran, according to its semi-official Tasnim news agency.

The commodity briefly pared losses, before reversing, in a knee-jerk reaction after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that “in no uncertain terms... the Cease Fire is OVER!” He also confirmed that talks between the warring sides are set to continue. 

The International Energy Agency warned in a report on Friday that renewed hostilities between the two adversaries risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later this year.

There were signs of resilience in the region’s energy flows. The United Arab Emirates boosted crude oil production to an all-time high last month, the most compelling evidence yet of how Abu Dhabi has responded more boldly than any of its Persian Gulf neighbors to the war.

“Overall, the price action is consistent with the narrative that the market doesn’t think the hostilities are going to last,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “On the flip side, oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are down significantly from last week while there are signs that China may be increasing runs.”

“But the picture after the war ends looks increasingly bleak when examining balances,” he added.

Observed transits through Hormuz have been reduced substantially by the hostilities. Traders will be monitoring output and sales from Persian Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, which is due to issue monthly allocations to customers shortly. 

Visible traffic in Hormuz remained thin after appearing to grind to a near halt on Thursday, according to ship-tracking data. At least two oil supertankers, both controlled by the same company, appeared to cross the waterway Friday on a US protected route.

Crude’s volatile week is reflected in shifts in WTI’s prompt spread, which tracks the difference between its two nearest contracts. The spread has flipped from contango, which signals oversupply, to backwardation, which denotes the opposite.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Mexican finance officials are exploring the possibility of creating an umbrella-financing package for renewable-energy projects that could be supported by more than $4 billion from development bank Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Publicos, the bank’s head said.

The government is planning to invite more private sector bids to partner with the Comision Federal de Electricidad for renewable energy and storage projects given the interest from global investors in the recent, first tender of such projects by the government, said Jorge Mendoza, the chief executive officer of the bank known as Banobras.

Mexico’s Finance Ministry and Banobras are weighing options such as creating a single vehicle to finance multiple projects, Mendoza said, adding that the government is currently in talks with institutional investors, Mexican pension funds and banks to put together financing.

Mendoza said he expected most of the financing would lined up over the next 12 months, with a chunk done by December this year.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been ramping up infrastructure projects in the country. Still, plans have been sluggish at times and a robust pipeline of projects hasn’t fully materialized.

Mendoza said the government is now set to announce more power, oil, highway and ports projects over the next six months, benefiting from the country’s push to develop new models for public-private investment efforts.

“Everything that we worked for over the last year-and-a-half, it’s going to start rolling right now,” Mendoza said in an interview from the bank’s headquarters in Mexico City. “We need to make sure that whoever wins, or partners up with the government, has the financing capacity to do so.”

Investors have been putting more money into Mexico’s struggling electricity sector after the government clarified rules earlier this year. Sheinbaum has pivoted toward welcoming private investment in power after the previous administration shuttered an opening in the state-run energy sector.

Banobras will be able to fund as much as 80 billion pesos ($4.6 billion), funneling that money either directly into projects or through the umbrella facility that’s under consideration, Mendoza said. The financing would back the roughly three dozen projects that were awarded last month to 18 companies. Most of those were for solar-energy ventures.

Mendoza said that an umbrella vehicle would reduce costs and streamline due diligence, by piggybacking on the government’s own evaluation of projects. The umbrella vehicle could combine funds from the government, banks and institutional investors, he said. 

The group could consider cheaper financing for those sourcing materials, such as machinery or components, locally to help incentivize companies to use Mexican supply chains, he said. 

Mendoza also said that Banobras was working with Mexico’s national infrastructure fund, or Fonadin, on 18 highway projects that are estimated to cost around 212 billion pesos. He said he expected to award 13 of those projects before the end of the year, with the others following in the first six months of 2027. 

The country has seen more interest in public-private projects than purely private energy ventures, he said.

“Private players are seeing it as a way to mitigate risks — regulation risk, judicial risk — if you partner up with the government,” he said. 

Mendoza said major global funds were seeing past the noise of US trade talks and geopolitical risks that have weighed on investments. There had been a drought of projects under the past administration, and now the new efforts by the government to accommodate private capital is drawing major investors back.

“They want to take the opportunity of doing things now before the risks disappear,” Mendoza said. “I’m sure that Mexico is going to end up in a much better place than many other countries in terms of trade with the US, regional integration and competitiveness. And once there’s no risks, then there’s going to be many more players coming into Mexico and then you lose the timing and advantage of being early.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Nissos Kea popped up inside the Gulf several hours after its Automatic Identification System signal stopped when it approaching the waterway while the Nissos Heraclea made the opposite move, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The two very large crude carriers are run by Piraeus, Greece-based Kyklades Maritime Corp. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The level of observable oil tanker traffic through the strait has slowed in the past 24 hours, after the US and Iran traded missile and drone strikes while an interim peace deal teeters on the edge of collapse. A growing number of tankers had been shuttling through Hormuz ‘dark,’ prior to the renewed hostilities and it’s unclear what impact the latest flare up has had.

Both tankers appear to be engaged in ferrying crude from Qatar, with one loading at the Al Shaheen field and the other appearing to be heading in the direction of Halul Island, the tracking data show. Neither ship broadcast a destination while in the Gulf, although both kept their transponders on for much of their time in the region.

Partial position data from the inbound Greek ship as it crossed Hormuz suggest that it most likely used the southern route through the waterway, hugging the Omani coastline. The outbound carrier was also relatively close to the Oman side before it was going into Hormuz. 

Separately, the US dismissed Iranian claims that only Tehran-designated routes are permitted. 

In a post on social media late Thursday, Central Command said that US forces had helped to facilitate the transit of 380 million barrels since early May. A start date of May 1 would imply a flow rate of 5.4 million barrels a day. Adding Iranian flows would take the figure to well over 6 million barrels a day. 

Several ships using the Omani foute in recent days have come under attack from Iran, with Tehran seeking to limit traffic to a northerly route passing through its waters.

The only supertanker observed taking that path through the strait in the past 24 hours had previously loaded its cargo at Iran’s own Kharg Island terminal in the northern Gulf. It is the most recent of a wave of Iran-linked supertankers seen heading toward Asia from Iran’s ports over the past several days.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The country pumped 4.1 million barrels a day on average in June, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. That surpasses the peak daily output 4 million a day in 2020 when it had boosted supply during a brief price war over OPEC+ policy, and follows its exit from the group earlier this year.

The UAE’s bold tactics since the war began are becoming increasingly apparent, from using its own large fleet to hiring extra ships controlled by Sinokor Group, a South Korean firm that now runs the world’s largest fleet of oil supertankers. Many of the vessels have operated “dark,” with their digital transponders turned off to get barrels out of the Persian Gulf unseen. 

The vigorous recovery, most of which came before a spate of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz this week, underlines the country’s unshackling from limits set by the Organization of the the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil traders have been keeping close watch on how high the UAE might take it supply after it left the producer group at the end of April.

The country had already restored its exports to pre-war levels last month, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, was also getting close as it resumed shipments from the key Ras Tanura terminal inside the Persian Gulf.

The rebounding flows, along with the precarious peace agreement between Washington and Tehran that had allowed a surge of tankers to pass through Hormuz, had helped flip world markets from tightness to signs of oversupply in key regions and erased the war-time rally in crude prices. 

The recovery picture was muddied on Wednesday, however, when President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire effectively void after the two sides traded hostilities in the region. US forces struck sites in Iran for two consecutive days, and Tehran fired upon Bahrain and Kuwait. Brent futures topped $80 a barrel earlier this week, but eased to near $76 a barrel on Friday.

The Gulf’s other major producers also increased output last month, though fell short of pre-war levels, according to the IEA. Saudi Arabia pumped 7.3 million barrels a day in June, 900,000 a day higher that the previous month. Kuwait’s increased to 1.4 million barrels a day on average and Iraq’s to 2 million a day.   

Even as crude flows have risen, refinery activity in the Gulf has been more sluggish to respond, with product exports still less than half the levels prior to the conflict, the IEA said.

(Updates with OPEC context in the fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.