A total of 9.52 gigawatts of solar capacity was added last month, according to data from the National Energy Administration. The monthly figure represents a slight improvement from 8.91 gigawatts added in March, but is a steep drop from the year-earlier level of 45.22 gigawatts when policy changes drove a surge in installations. 

The slowdown, which began early this year, reflects weakening domestic demand following years of rapid renewable energy expansion. The sluggish momentum is also evident in manufacturing. Solar cell output fell 26% in April, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last week. 

However, exports remained resilient last month, despite the removal of tax rebates for overseas shipments that were expected to damp global demand for the country’s clean tech products. Shipments of solar cells grew 60% by volume from a year earlier, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs. 

“With conflict in the Middle East stifling energy passage via the Strait of Hormuz, overseas solar shipments should remain robust through 2H as various nations step up their push toward alternative energy,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chia Chen said in a note.

China also added 5.49 gigawatts of wind power in April, while newly installed thermal power additions were 3.97 gigawatts, according to the NEA.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Leaning on practices including dark transits — when vessels cross the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders switched off — Adnoc has been among the most successful producers when it comes to taking supplies out of the Middle East, according to tracking data, traders and people with knowledge of the matter.

Other Middle East producers, along with Western commodity traders, have also sought ways of moving cargoes through Hormuz over almost three months of war, but most lease their tankers, and have found themselves constrained by the risk appetite of the owners.

Adnoc, by contrast, has been using vessels controlled by Navig8, a company that’s majority owned by its shipping and logistics arm, and Wanhua Chemical Group, a joint-venture partner, according to the people, who asked not to be named as the information is not public. These include crude and clean petroleum product tankers as well as gas carriers, the people said.

Adnoc is not alone in attempting to find ways to get its cargoes to market — Qatar has also been unobtrusively exporting through Hormuz in recent days. 

Liquefied natural gas tanker Al Rayyan was spotted north of Muscat, Oman, on Monday after passing Hormuz, and is heading to top customer China, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The tanker stopped broadcasting a signal around May 22, when it had been idling near Qatar’s Ras Laffan export plant in the Persian Gulf. 

The bold gambits highlight the urgency felt by producers, who are rushing to get supply to market in part given limited storage capacity. Adding to the United Arab Emirates’ eagerness, it officially left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1.

“With the UAE leaving OPEC and finding ways to send ships through Hormuz in the dark, Adnoc has been willing to take more risks in order to get their oil out,” said Matt Wright, senior freight analyst at intelligence firm Kpler.

A spokesperson for Adnoc Logistics & Services said the company could not comment on the position, movements, or routing of its vessels as a matter of policy. Adnoc referred queries to Adnoc L&S.

QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Adnoc’s method allows it to send some recently exited ships back into the Persian Gulf for more cargoes, the people said — so-called shuttle runs that can keep oil and fuels flowing. Once through Hormuz, the vessels typically transfer their cargoes to clients’ tankers in safer waters off Fujairah or Sohar, a known hotspot, or sail to India’s west coast. 

The short runs mean the producer can make the most of proximity to Hormuz, with crudes such as Upper Zakum typically loading at Zirku Island, while naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas are picked up from Adnoc’s mega-refinery at Ruwais. A return journey takes roughly a week.

Adnoc has also exported at least three LNG cargoes through Hormuz using dark transits. The latest was spotted over the weekend, loaded with a cargo and heading to western India, according to ship-tracking data. 

Satellite images show that LNG tankers have been docking at Das Island, Adnoc’s export plant within the Persian Gulf, for at least a month, even though no tankers are broadcasting their positions near the plant.

For Adnoc’s gas exits, empty tankers head toward the eastern entrance of the strait near the Fujairah anchorage, where they stop transmitting signals, before transiting the waterway to load cargoes from Das Island. The vessels resume broadcasting their location only after clearing Hormuz and entering the Gulf of Oman once again.

Still, the successful transits represent only a fraction of pre-war trade flows, particularly for LNG — so far only seven shipments have been identified making it through since the US and Israel started strikes against Iran, compared to roughly three exits a day before the conflict began.

Specific figures on overall crude, gas and fuel cargoes are hard to tally with certainty, given transponders are off — an increasingly common tactic in the area, as a safety precaution. The shadow practice also means it is unclear if the vessels are sailing through the waterway close to Oman or along the Iran-approved northern route, which may involve toll payments.

But the pick up in exits underlines the extent to which more regional producers are able to find informal and temporary workarounds, balancing Iran and the US to avoid either blockade.

Senior US officials have said that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal that could reopen Hormuz, even as President Donald Trump said he would not “rush” into an agreement. Over the weekend, he said that a peace deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated”. Key sticking points remain, however, including Iran’s nuclear program.

(Adds Qatar detail in paragraphs five, six and from paragraph 10.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Benchmark futures fell as much as 6.7% after President Donald Trump said in a social media post that “the negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner,” although he added that the US would not to rush into a deal.

Most gas from the Middle East normally goes to Asia, but persisting disruptions to flows through Hormuz could intensify competition for a limited global pool of liquefied natural gas. That would complicate Europe’s efforts to refill its lower-than-usual fuel inventories before next winter.

The region’s vast storage facilities are now about 38% full, significantly below the five-year average for this time of the year of just above 50%. While it’s normal for storage to decline in winter and be refilled in summer, this year’s campaign has been slow to take off. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also struck a cautiously upbeat tone, saying the US was going to give diplomacy every chance. “We thought we might have some news last night,” he told reporters in New Delhi. “Maybe today.”

Still, it remains unclear how key differences, including the fate of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, will be addressed. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the draft agreement could still collapse because the US was obstructing some key clauses, including a demand that its assets be unfrozen.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 4.9% to €46.32 a megawatt-hour as of 8:56 a.m. in Amsterdam. Trading volumes are very thin as many market participants are away because of holidays in the UK and parts of the continent. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. — which together control about 90% of India’s fuel retail market — increased gasoline prices in New Delhi by 2.6% to 102.12 rupees ($1.07) a liter and for diesel by 2.9% to 95.20 rupees, according to company statements and website data. Prices have been raised across India, but vary from state to state due to local taxes.

The latest hike brings cumulative increases over the last 10 days to 7.8% for gasoline and 8.6% for diesel. The prices for the fuels are at the highest level since May 2022.

India deregulated retail fuel pricing years ago, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had effectively frozen pump prices for nearly four years. That policy became increasingly difficult to sustain as the Iran war sent crude prices sharply higher and the rupee weakened against the dollar, deepening losses for state-run refiners. 

A surge in fuel consumption during the agricultural harvest season and increasing disparities with non-state retailers have also strained inventories, adding to pressure to raise prices.

Even after the latest adjustment, government-owned retailers are still selling fueling below market-linked levels. Private operators such as Shell Plc are charging more than 116 rupees a liter for gasoline and more than 127 rupees for diesel at outlets across India.

“We expect more action to come by through another retail fuel price hike and a hike in liquefied petroleum gas prices,” said Radhika Piplani, economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. “The higher prices of fuel would have a bearing on inflation, which we expect to climb to 5.7% on year for the current financial year as against the Reserve Bank of India expectation of 4.6%,”she said.  

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet June 3-5 for an interest-rate decision. Sonal Varma, Nomura Holding Inc.’s chief economist for Asia ex-Japan, expects the central bank to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. The fuel price hikes will have a cumulative impact of 38 basis points on the consumer price index, she said. 

State-run companies are selling diesel to bulk users at premiums of at least 40 rupees a liter above retail pump prices, encouraging commercial buyers and motorists to shift purchases to subsidized retail stations. The surge in demand has led to dry-outs at several fuel stations and raised concerns over supply shortages.

Indian Oil said on Saturday that diesel sales at its retail outlets climbed 18% in the first 22 days of May from a year earlier, while gasoline sales rose 14%.

India has been among the economies hardest hit by the Middle East conflict because of its dependence on crude and fuel shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that has been mostly blocked since the war began in February.

The government this month introduced a series of measures aimed at containing the economic fallout as higher oil prices pressure the rupee and accelerate foreign investor withdrawals from local equities.

The shares of the state-run fuel retailers rose on Monday. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum all climbed as much as 4% or more.

(Updates throughout and adds analyst comments.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The fatal blast on Friday night occurred at the privately owned Liushenyu mine in the coal-belt region of Shanxi. The explosion, which left at least 82 dead, has triggered a vast rescue operation and is likely to prompt heightened scrutiny of mine safety that could threaten nationwide coal output in the near term.

Dalian futures soared as much as 8%, triggering spillover buying across the ferrous metals complex, including iron ore and steel contracts. Shares of coal miners in the northern province also rose, with Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co. gaining as much as 9.2% and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co. as much as 7.4%, as traders bet that producers would benefit from higher prices.

The accident is the deadliest since 2009, and the country’s top leadership, led by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, has struck an uncompromising tone. According to state media, the central government has vowed to conduct “a rigorous and thorough investigation” into the causes of the accident and “impose severe penalties in accordance with laws and regulations.”

China has drastically reduced coal mining fatalities in recent years, making the latest explosion an even more serious incident. Though the mine based in Qinyuan county produced primarily coking coal for steelmaking, the blast will almost certainly trigger widespread safety inspections that could affect China’s much larger supplies of thermal coal, used in power generation. 

That would come at a challenging time for the thermal coal market. The Iran war has disrupted oil and gas shipments for the best part of three months. The country is heading into summer, a time when hotter weather drives up electricity consumption. And top exporter Indonesia has imposed constraints on supply.

Two thermal coal mines in Qinyuan, with a combined annual capacity of 1.8 million tons, have halted operations, according to Chinese consultancy Mysteel. Other major hubs, including Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Henan, have also launched inspections to prevent similar risks, such as gas leaks, following the accident. 

Still, operations outside Shanxi have so far largely remained at normal levels, Mysteel said. The province vies with Inner Mongolia as China’s largest producing region, accounting for about a quarter of national output.

“The supply tightness stemming from accident-related safety checks will not alter the broader goal of maintaining price stability,” the consultancy said in a note on Sunday.

Much depends on the duration of the government’s crackdown. The restrictions in Qinyuan have already directly impacted about 4% of China’s coking coal output, said Bu Tong, senior analyst at Horizon Insights based in Shanghai.

The broader risk is that mines may struggle to raise output in the near term to meet the expected increases in power demand, according to Chinese trading platform ocoal.com, which expects inspections to curb production for about one month without triggering widespread shutdowns.

The market is also watching for any impact on other sectors, including aluminum, where production costs can be highly sensitive to coal prices. Shanghai futures for alumina, an intermediate product, rose 0.9% before paring gains.

There’s also an expectation that safety inspections will extend beyond coal mines to other materials, including bauxite, said Peng Dinggui, an analyst with Zhongtai Futures Co.

(Updates with additional material from 10th paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Al Rayyan vessel was spotted north of Muscat, Oman, on Monday after passing Hormuz, and is heading to China, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The tanker stopped broadcasting a signal around May 22, when it had been idling near Qatar’s Ras Laffan export plant in the Persian Gulf. China was the biggest buyer of Qatari LNG last year.

Another vessel that loaded a Qatari shipment in late March, also transited the strait between Sunday and Monday, ship data showed. The Fuwairit stopped sending a signal on Sunday as it was partially through Hormuz and reappeared north of Muscat. It’s now heading to Pakistan, according to the data.

The Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually shut as peace negotiations between the US and Iran drag on, with both sides enforcing a de facto blockade on a waterway that normally handles about a fifth of global LNG supply. Vessels continue to face security threats and most of the transits through the chokepoint take place with transponders turned off to avoid detection.

LNG exporters in the Persian Gulf are stepping up efforts to ship out fuel that’s been trapped in the region since the war started in late February. A tanker loaded with a cargo at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Das Island export plant left Hormuz and was spotted heading to India over the weekend, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

Still, the successful transits represent only a fraction of pre-war trade flows. So far, only seven LNG shipments have been identified making it through since the US and Israel started strikes against Iran, compared to roughly three tankers exiting the waterway on a daily basis before the conflict began.

Al Rayyan is owned by Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Fuwairit is owned by a joint-venture including Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. Kawasai Kisen, Mitsui OSK and QatarEnergy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The very large crude carrier Eagle Verona crossed into the Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Oman carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude to China, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Tanker departures from the Persian Gulf are being closely watched by the oil market as most ships remain stuck in the area since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz after it was attacked by the US and Israel at the end of February. The closure of the waterway has stopped most ships from leaving and prevented others from entering the oil and gas-rich region.

The US and Iran are inching toward a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are closing in on an agreement that would reopen the waterway, senior US officials said Sunday. President Donald Trump earlier said a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated,” but Iran’s Fars agency dismissed this as “far from reality” without citing anyone.

Crude oil fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as trading began Monday in Asia, while the dollar weakened on expectations that a deal may be near. Global crude benchmark Brent fell as much as 5.7% to $97.64 a barrel. 

The VLCC loaded its cargo at the Basra Oil Terminal on Feb. 28, the tracking data show and is now heading to the Chinese port of Ningbo, where it is scheduled to arrive on June 12.

The tanker’s departure follows that of a liquefied natural gas carrier, the Al Hamra, carrying the first shipment of the superchilled fuel from the Persian Gulf destined for India since the Iran war began.

Thirty-three vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial craft, sailed through the Strait of Hormuz over the previous 24 hours after obtaining authorization from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Sunday, citing an IRGC statement.

Meanwhile, the US Navy, which imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in mid-April that it had redirected 100 commercial vessels during its six-week-long blockade of Iran’s ports, US Central Command said in a post on X Saturday.

The Eagle Verona is owned by AET Inc PTE Ltd, a Malaysian company based in Singapore, according to the Equasis maritime database. The company did not respond to an email sent outside office hours on Sunday. AET is part of the MISC Group, itself a member of the PETRONAS Group of Companies, company websites show. MISC and AET share an address in Singapore, according to Equasis.

(Updates with market reaction in fifth paragraph. A previous version corrects the spelling of a name in the second paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Companies requested approval for 51 gigawatts of new plants in the first quarter of the year, according to Global Energy Monitor, ahead of the record pace set in 2025 that saw 162 gigawatts of new proposals over the full year. Construction has boomed since a spate of power shortages in 2021 and 2022 as the government touts coal’s role as a reliable back-up to intermittent renewables.

Still, it’s unclear how long the government will let the spree continue. Beijing has said coal use will peak before 2030, and in April the environment ministry said it plans to “rationally control” coal-powered capacity. Of the new proposals in the first quarter, only 3 gigawatts have been approved, according to GEM.

Coal’s domestic abundance also relies on a hazardous mining industry that’s once again in the spotlight after the deadliest accident in years on Friday left at least 82 dead.

The onslaught of new coal plants in China comes even as a surge in clean energy reduces the need for fossil fuels. Thermal generation fell last year for the first time in a decade, although it’s since rebounded. Coal plant utilization fell from 56% to 52% in 2025, and the current batch of proposals risks intensifying that trend, tying up capital that might be better deployed elsewhere in the power system, said Christine Shearer, a researcher at GEM.

“The debate in China today is often less about whether renewables can grow quickly enough, and more about whether policymakers are willing to let coal’s role diminish as clean energy scales up,” Shearer said.

The new requests were spread evenly across the quarter, according to GEM. That indicates there wasn’t a sharp reaction to the global energy shock stemming from US and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February. 

“The latest crisis may strengthen the justification for continuing coal development, but the underlying expansion likely would have been happening anyway,” Shearer said. 

On the Wire

China’s sharper declines in housing transactions and investment in April — after a first-quarter rebound led by top-tier cities — show the road to stabilization will be bumpy, Bloomberg Economics said.

Companies across at least nine European countries bought carbon credits from Chinese projects that may never have existed, or for which there are serious concerns over verification, a Bloomberg investigation found.

China’s world-beating coal production has helped shield its economy from the worst of the Iran war shock. Now the deadliest mining disaster in years is raising uncomfortable questions about the cost of that drive.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, May 25

• Mysteel nickel, cobalt and recycling conference in Ningbo, day 1
• Public holiday in Hong Kong

Tuesday, May 26

• Mysteel nickel, cobalt and recycling conference in Ningbo, day 2

Wednesday, May 27

• China’s industrial profits for April, 09:30
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00

Thursday, May 28

• Nothing major scheduled

Friday, May 29

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30

Saturday, May 30

• Nothing major scheduled

Sunday, May 31

• China’s official PMIs for May, 09:30

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

More than 80 days into the 2026 Middle East conflict, global energy markets have moved from acute disruption into a stabilised crisis regime, one in which disruption is managed but not resolved.

At the centre of the disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) — close to 20% of global oil consumption, and around 20% of global LNG trade — typically transits. This disruption, described by experts as the largest oil supply disruption in history by affected volumes, has acted as a real-time systemic stress test, triggering immediate shocks across oil and gas markets, freight and insurance costs, and industrial supply chains.

Despite the scale of the shock, the system has largely stabilised through a combination of rerouting (approximately 6 mbpd of bypass capacity), strategic stock releases, and demand adjustment, offsetting much of the estimated 6.7 mbpd of disrupted flows. However, 65–70% of Hormuz-dependent volumes remain non-divertible in the short term, which underscores persistent structural vulnerability.

Market dynamics have been driven by expectations rather than actual shortages. Brent crude experienced sharp price swings, including increases of over 40% during the initial phase, while European gas benchmarks, particularly Dutch TTF, rose by approximately 15-25% in the initial shock phase, driven by LNG rerouting toward Asia, before stabilising. At the same time, freight rates and insurance premiums surged, reinforcing logistics as a key constraint.

The shock has propagated beyond energy into the wider economy, with uneven impacts across petrochemicals, fertilisers, aviation, and manufacturing. Overall, the crisis is accelerating a structural shift from efficiency-led optimisation toward resilience-led system design. Energy security is increasingly defined not by access alone, but by the ability to manage disruption across molecules, electrons, and data in real time.

The Hormuz factor: the systemic fault line

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy system. Approximately 20 mbpd of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products transit the Strait daily, representing close to one-fifth of global oil consumption, alongside roughly 20% of global LNG trade.

This creates extreme concentration risk: a single maritime corridor, less than 40km wide at its narrowest navigable point, effectively functions as a global macroeconomic lever. Its partial disruption immediately propagated across Asian and European markets, with Asian LNG importers in Japan, South Korea, China, and India experiencing spot market tightening, while European gas markets reacted through upward pressure on Dutch TTF pricing.

The impact extended beyond hydrocarbons. Delays and rerouting affected petrochemical feedstocks, fertilisers, food supply chains, and critical mineral logistics. Rising ammonia and fertiliser costs increased agricultural inflation risks, while petrochemical volatility disrupted plastics, industrial materials, and manufacturing inputs globally.

The Strait’s closure demonstrated that maritime chokepoints are no longer transport corridors only, but strategic nodes through which energy, food, industrial production, and inflation shocks are transmitted simultaneously.

Market volatility and pricing the war premium

As the crisis deepened, Brent crude markets rapidly embedded a geopolitical war premium, with sharp price swings, including increases of over 40% during the initial phase. Price formation reflected uncertainty over the magnitude and duration of the disruption and its impact on transport reliability, rather than over immediate production shortages. Historical precedent reinforces this dynamic.

During the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facilities, a disruption of approximately 5.7 mbpd triggered a 15-20% surge in Brent crude prices, one of the largest single-day increases in decades, showing the non-linear sensitivity of oil markets to perceived supply risk. In 2026, Brent pricing similarly reacted to three overlapping uncertainties: the magnitude of supply disruptions, route uncertainty, and conflict duration.

European gas markets, particularly Dutch TTF, recorded forward pricing increases of approximately 15-25% in the initial shock phase, driven by anticipated LNG diversion away from Europe toward Asian demand centres. Even in the absence of immediate shortages, TTF pricing reflected tightening marginal LNG availability and increased competition for Atlantic basic cargoes.

Freight markets reinforced this effect, with LNG shipping rates rising significantly and crude tanker spot rates increasing materially, reflecting reduced effective fleet capacity due to longer voyage cycles and rerouting constraints.

This illustrates a defining characteristic of modern energy markets: expectations move faster than molecules. In tightly interconnected systems, anticipated scarcity is priced before physical shortages materialise.

Pipeline bypass and logistical agility of the Gulf

Despite severe disruption, global supply systems remained operational due to the Gulf’s redundancy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (approximately 5 mbpd capacity, with technical capacity up to 7 mbpd) enabled partial Gulf-to-Red Sea rerouting, while the UAE Abu Dhabi- Fujairah pipeline added approximately 1.5 mbpd of export capacity outside Hormuz.

Together, this provides approximately 6 mbpd of bypass capacity under stress conditions, which arguably marked the first major live test of Gulf bypass infrastructure at scale under real crisis conditions.

However, even at full utilisation, 65-70% of Hormuz-dependent flows remain structurally constrained, reinforcing the persistent vulnerability to single-node disruption in global energy logistics.

Supply chain fragmentation: the force majeure era

Disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure rapidly cascaded far beyond energy markets into global industrial supply chains, triggering widespread force majeure declarations across energy, petrochemicals, LNG shipping, and downstream manufacturing. Kpler vessel tracking and industry reports indicate that the disruption led to widespread congestion across LNG and tanker flows, with significant cargo delays and vessel backlogs forming within the Gulf and at key downstream hubs such as Fujairah, Singapore, and Rotterdam. These delays reflected not only rerouting but also systemic congestion across tanker fleets, port operations, and extended voyage cycles.

Petrochemical markets experienced immediate feedstock volatility, with prices increasing by up to 40% due to inventory tightening and delivery uncertainty. Global fertiliser markets rose in parallel by 15-30% in the initial disruption phase, driven by ammonia and gas feedstock constraints, with sharper spikes in urea during peak stress periods, reinforcing downstream agricultural inflation pressures.

A particularly sensitive transmission channel emerged in aviation. Jet fuel prices more than doubled, reflecting refinery rebalancing between diesel and jet production and tighter Gulf-linked supply logistics. Airlines faced dual pressure from higher fuel costs and operational inefficiencies caused by rerouted flight paths and constrained refuelling hubs. Given aviation’s limited storage capacity and just-in-time fuel procurement model, cost increases were rapidly transmitted into operating costs, increasing the cost per available seat kilometre (CASK), particularly for long-haul carriers dependent on Gulf and Asian hubs.

Manufacturing sectors exposed to energy-intensive inputs saw mid-single- to low-double-digit increases in input costs, depending on energy intensity and supply chain exposure. Disruptions to delivery schedules and feedstock availability further amplified inefficiencies in industrial production cycles across chemicals, metals, and industrial materials.

Overall, the force majeure environment evolved into a multi-sector transmission shock, in which energy disruption propagated simultaneously across petrochemicals, agriculture, aviation, and manufacturing, with stranded cargoes serving as a physical indicator of global supply chain desynchronisation.

The strategic pivot: building resilience

The Middle East conflict has reinforced a structural lesson: systems optimised for efficiency under stable conditions are not inherently resilient under stress. As a result, a strategic pivot toward resilience is underway as a core organising principle of global energy systems.

This is increasingly expressed through geopatriation, as governments and companies seek greater strategic control over energy, technology and industrial assets. This is driving localisation of supply chains and expansion of domestic industrial capacity in critical sectors. Energy infrastructure itself is evolving away from rigid centralised models toward more adaptive architectures, including districted energy systems, battery storage, flexible load management, and AI-managed microgrids that reduce reliance on single points of failure and improve overall system responsiveness under disruption.

These adjustments reflect a system shifting from supply adequacy to transport and insurance scarcity.

Beyond distributed systems, AI has also emerged as an operational resilience tool in constrained infrastructure during routine operations. In hydrocarbon systems, ADNOC’s AI-enabled platforms (ENERGYai and Neuron 5) integrate predictive maintenance, upstream optimisation, production forecasting, and digital twins to reduce unplanned shutdowns, improve asset utilisation, and strengthen operational reliability under routine stress. ADNOC reports that these tools have halved unplanned shutdowns and cut planned maintenance by approximately 20%, illustrating how digital intelligence can improve efficiency and system reliability under normal operating conditions. While there is no evidence that these systems directly mitigated the Strait of Hormuz crisis, their predictive and optimisation capabilities could help preserve operational continuity during disruptions.

Global grid investment is projected to exceed US$600 billion annually by 2030 as countries modernise energy systems to accommodate electrification, digitalisation, and growing resilience requirements.

More fundamentally, the system is moving from reactive crisis management toward proactive system design. Energy security is increasingly defined by the ability to respond dynamically to physical and digital disruptions across interconnected infrastructure, market and information systems.

The 2026 conflict, therefore, has not simply exposed vulnerabilities within the global energy system but accelerated its redesign. Energy security is no longer defined solely by access to resources, but by the capacity to manage disruption across molecules, electrons, and data.

• This Market Outlook report was produced as a part of ADIPEC’s Energy & Geopolitics series. For more information and coverage, visit: https://www.adipec.com/press-media/insights/

The privately owned Liushenyu mine, in the coal-belt region of Shanxi, produces mostly coking coal, meaning it supplies steelmakers, not power plants. A mid-sized outfit, it produced a fraction of the region’s annual total.

But Friday night’s blast, which left at least 82 dead, is already prompting a response which belies the scale of that operation.

The accident has triggered a vast rescue operation with hundreds of emergency workers, promises of an “uncompromising” investigation and an intervention from President Xi Jinping and senior officials. An immediate increase in scrutiny is almost certain — potentially threatening overall coal output in the near term, power generation and Beijing’s efforts to prioritize energy security.

Such high-profile mine incidents tend to trigger “nationwide safety inspections and heightened enforcement,” said David Fishman, a Shanghai-based principal at The Lantau Group. “This has been the pattern in the past and it’s reasonable to expect it again this time, because of the size of the accident and the immediate strong statements from the central government, including Xi himself.”

Regional authorities have already launched inspection and remediation efforts targeting risks at coal mines, including gas, water hazards and roof conditions, the Shanxi Daily reported on Sunday, citing the region’s Communist Party secretary. 

But a crackdown comes at a delicate time for China. Conflict in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas shipments for the best part of three months. The country, meanwhile, is heading into summer, a time when hotter weather drives up power consumption.

Any hit to coal mining output risks tightening supplies and pushing up energy prices or, in the worst-case scenario, forcing power curbs on the industry similar to those that rattled China’s economy in the past.

China started the year with coal stockpiles ample enough to be considered a glut. Nationwide coal output has fallen in eight of the past nine months, including in April, largely because of excess supply.

But that balance is at risk of shifting, as the Iran war lifts liquefied natural gas prices and reduces imports, piling fresh pressure on coal to continue carrying the bulk of the country’s thermal power generation.

For years, Xi’s government has doubled down on China’s abundant coal reserves to reduce reliance on imported energy. Coal output hit a record high last year — up 30% from a decade earlier — and remains the backbone of the country’s power system, underpinning a broader push to electrify everything from cars to industry. Domestic coal is even being tapped as a feedstock for production of chemicals, oil and gas.

But the drive for energy security and domestic production has forced mines to juggle competing priorities: maintaining breakneck supply growth while overstretching facilities and equipment. And that has extended beyond just thermal coal: The Beijing News reported the Liushenyu mine may have had too many workers underground, some without GPS devices specifically to aid rescuers.

“It’s possible that local officials may take the rap and if so, they may be publicly shamed and prosecuted,” said Rana Mitter, historian and ST Lee chair in US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. “But that will almost certainly be portrayed as the central government cracking down on lax behavior in the provinces — not any fundamental failing in the party’s governance.”

China has made strides when it comes to safety, and research shows a drop in the frequency and scale of coal mine accidents over the past decade or so.

Beijing has not, though, tackled structural problems, said Mary Gallagher, professor of global affairs at the University of Notre Dame — which include perverse incentives and a system that punishes local officials for problems, and not the central government.

When production is a priority, local governments can get caught between Beijing’s economic guidance and its safety standards.

“It’s a lose-lose situation,” Gallagher said. “It’s likely that in this case the local government was looking in the other direction as this mine clearly had safety issues before the accident.”

Granted, some aspects of the official response have improved. Back in 2021, a crackdown ahead of the Communist Party’s 100th anniversary curbed production to the point that it contributed to a coal shortage and nationwide power curtailments. 

Beijing has found less disruptive methods. Even after the last large disaster — a 2023 landslide at a mine in Inner Mongolia that led to 53 deaths — officials responded with a focus on accident prevention, not a hit to overall production. At the time, China’s output was rapidly increasing and the mine was restarted to help lift volumes.

It’s not yet clear that the Liushenyu mine will trigger a similarly contained response, even though it produces coking coal, and accounts for just 0.1% of Shanxi’s total annual coal production. It was penalized twice last year by local authorities for safety violations.

Several coal mines in Shanxi’s Qinyuan county, where the blast happened, have already been verbally instructed to suspend production, according to a report from consultancy MySteel. Twelve mines in the area — all but two of them coking coal assets — have halted output, risking tighter supply as local inventories are already in the low-to-mid range, the report said.

“We will strengthen oversight of mining operations, crack down on the fabrication or deletion of surveillance footage, and intensify inspection of concealed work areas,” Zhang Wenbo, director of the Emergency Management Bureau of Changzhi City said at a press conference on Saturday night.

The city’s mayor has apologized to the victims’ families and pledged to hold those responsible accountable for the accident.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Adnoc Logistics & Services’s Al Hamra tanker was spotted in the last day, loaded with a cargo and heading to western India, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel stopped sending a signal around April 19 — but at that time it was empty and idling near the eastern entrance of Hormuz.

The tanker loaded a cargo at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Das Island export plant, which is in the Gulf behind Hormuz, during the period it wasn’t sending a signal, according to Kpler. Satellite images show that LNG tankers have been docking at Das Island, even though no tankers are broadcasting their positions near the plant.

Adnoc has exported two other shipments from the Gulf on tankers that went dark when traversing the waterway — one to Japan and the other to China.

Hormuz has remained virtually shut as the US and Iran struggle to reach a peace agreement, with both sides enforcing a de facto blockade on a waterway that normally handles about a fifth of global LNG supply. Vessels continue to face security threats, and most of the transits through Hormuz take place with transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Last year, India received more than half of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE, but those flows have essentially halted over the last few months, ship data shows. The decline in deliveries has forced India to procure more shipments from the expensive spot market, as well as curb supplies to some industries.

LNG tankers linked to Adnoc have stopped transmitting signals around Hormuz and within the Gulf, ship data shows, as a safety measure to protect the vessels and their crew. Adnoc didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment outside of regular business hours.

While the move suggests Gulf LNG exporters are finding ways to deliver fuel to customers, it still represents only a fraction of pre-war volumes, when roughly three tankers carrying the super-chilled fuel exited Hormuz on a daily basis.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Pentagon has bottled up roughly 130 proposed wind projects in an approval process that has stalled investments that would generate enough power to light 20 million US homes, according to a document prepared by the American Clean Power Association and seen by Bloomberg News.

Texas, which has worked to bolster renewable-energy development, is home to one-fourth of those projects worth some $11 billion, according to the document.

The Defense Department has stopped sending review determinations of wind projects to the Federal Aviation Administration, which must issue its own determinations before projects can go forward, according to the document. The bottleneck has meant that new onshore wind projects that haven’t already received the FAA’s Determination of No Hazard are unable to move forward.

The mounting delays suggest a new front has opened in the administration’s battle against wind projects, as President Donald Trump vows that new US turbines won’t be installed on his watch. 

The president has long criticized wind farms as bird-killing eyesores and famously battled turbines planned near one of his Scottish golf resorts. But the administration has moved more aggressively during Trump’s second term to thwart the ventures.

The Defense Department’s review process for wind farms is meant to ensure the projects don’t interfere with military operations. 

However, the power association in its document alleges the department’s actions amount to an across-the-board halt on projects, including those that present no identified military readiness or national security concerns.

Representatives of the Pentagon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Friday.

Trump administration officials have broadly criticized both wind and solar power, casting the emission-free renewables as reliant on government subsidies as well as additional infrastructure to compensate for the intermittent nature of their output. Even so, the US is facing a surge in electricity demand fed by the artificial intelligence boom. 

Facing that demand crunch, there are signs the administration is taking a more flexible approach to permitting some solar ventures, but that shift has not extended to wind. While high-profile solar projects are still being announced, wind farms especially those offshore, are facing legal challenges that have hobbled their development.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

It’s not unusual for an oil-price shock to become an existential crisis for some carriers. The Iran war is no different, with the forecast hit to profits so far in the billions of dollars. But there’s a stark difference between those that hedged well, those that hedged poorly and those that didn’t hedge at all.

While airlines including Ryanair Holdings Plc and Air France-KLM have reported that hedging offset some of the price increases, other carriers from US giant United Airlines Holdings Inc. to smaller AirAsia X Bhd are more exposed.

The sticking point for some airlines is that, just like buying home or auto insurance, hedging costs money. Airlines buy derivative contracts that will in theory rise in value, offsetting the increased price of jet fuel. Most of the time, that money goes down the drain when the market is calm, just like a homeowner’s fire insurance. For an industry that often runs on relatively thin margins, that extra cost counts.

It’s only when supply is squeezed and prices shoot upward that the hedges pay off. Like now, as the war in Iran has jet fuel now trading around $160 a barrel, more than 60% higher than before the war. 

While many European and Asian airlines use derivatives to lock in their jet fuel costs, peers in the US have been historically reticent to do so. The level of coverage typically varies among carriers, ranging at the end of last year from 30% to 80% and potentially even higher. Also, the instruments they use for the hedge make a huge difference in how well-protected they are.

“We continue to be well-hedged for the rest of the year,” Luis Gallego, chief executive of International Consolidated Airlines Group, which includes British Airways and Iberia, said on a recent earnings call. “This allows us to protect customers to some extent from the volatility and allows us to take, considered decisions on pricing and capacity.” 

So far, the fuel crunch hasn’t been as bad as feared. That’s in part because refineries, particularly in the US, have ramped up output and shipped record volumes overseas, helping fill the supply gap from the Middle East. But while there may be enough barrels to go around, they don’t come cheap. 

Ryanair said last week that it currently holds jet fuel and carbon derivatives contracts worth €2.1 billion ($2.4 billion) that are partly a result of a hedging program that locked in 80% of its fuel needs at $67 a barrel. Air France-KLM said late last month that while its fuel bill is likely to rise by $2.4 billion this year at current prices, that’s expected to be about $1.5 billion lower than it would otherwise have been. 

The amount of money on the table is enormous. Facing mountainous fuel bills, carriers are passing on higher costs to consumers. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said in late March that hedges on 30% of its fuel haven’t been enough to cover rising costs. The carrier imposed fuel surcharges, some of which have been partly rolled back.

On the other end of the spectrum is AirAsia, which doesn’t hedge. It’s shares have fallen 42% since the war began, the worst-performing member of the Bloomberg World Airlines Large, Mid & Small Cap Index.

Brent Hedging

Some in Europe and Asia hedge using Brent crude oil as a proxy for jet fuel. Typically, oil and its byproducts move largely in tandem as long as the market is relatively balanced between supply and demand. 

Brent crude is a market full of buyers and sellers on an exchange — it’s liquid, in market parlance — reducing the costs related to hedging. Hedging using gasoil or even jet fuel itself, sometimes in over-the-counter markets that are far less liquid, tends to cost more.

The problem is when there’s a shock. In March and April, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off supply of jet fuel to the market from Middle East refineries, as well as the types crude oil popular with Asian refiners. That forced some to reduce operating rates, further curbing fuel supply. 

“The real killer was crack spreads,” said Zameer Yusof, head of clean petroleum products analytics at Kpler. “Brent crude hedging wouldn’t have protected you from Singapore jet fuel margins blowing out past $100 a barrel — and that’s where Asian carriers’ exposure was concentrated.”

Since jet fuel is a relatively small market, the supply crunch drove prices up as much as 150% in Singapore, for example, compared with the 63% rally in Brent crude futures. As that gap, known as the crack spread, blew out, the gains on the crude contracts bought as a hedge failed to keep pace with the higher physical jet fuel prices that the airlines were having to pay every day.

“If they hedge Brent, they’re not hedging jet fuel,” Michael Leskinen, Executive VP and CFO at United Airlines, said in an earnings call last month, referring to non-US carriers. “The biggest portion of the move in jet fuel has been crack spreads. So I think this experience has proven once again that hedging is a poor policy.”

The crisis has already claimed Spirit Airlines, which wound down operations due to the soaring prices after a government bailout fell through. It might not be the last one, with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warning there may be more corporate “casualties” to come among European airlines if the war continues. 

For Southwest Airlines Co., the last major US airline to buy protection, it’s the first fuel crunch they’ve entered into without a hedge for decades. The carrier ended its hedging program last year after deciding that it was too costly to run over the long term.

Southwest said the policy, which began in the 1990s, saved it over $3.5 billion from 1998 to 2008 but that higher levels of market volatility in general meant that the cost of doing so no longer outweighed the benefit. 

“Hedging had become very expensive,” Chief Executive Officer Bob Jordan said on an earnings call late last month. “You can’t predict an extraordinary circumstance like a war. If we all could, you’d hedge and then you wouldn’t, and it’s unreasonable to think you could do something like that.”

Delta’s Refinery

To be sure, one airline without a hedging program is arguably doing better than anyone else. Delta Air Lines is the best-performing carrier in the airline index, with shares up 13% since the war began. The edge: A refinery outside Philadelphia that it purchased 14 years ago. It supplies about 15% of Delta’s jet fuel needs while selling or swapping gasoline and diesel in the market.

“The refinery directly supplies a portion of our jet fuel needs, and its economics partially offset higher cracks, reducing the all-in price we pay for jet fuel,” Dan Janki, Delta’s chief operating officer, said in April on an earnings call, adding that that the refinery would save the company about $300 million on fuel in the second quarter.

If prices remain high and volatile, it’s likely to remain unattractive for many carriers to add to their hedges. 

“We’ll monitor the market closely, and when we see an opportunity, we include some new contracts,” Murat Seker, chairman of Turkish Airlines, said on the company’s most recent earnings call. “But overall, we are not continuing our regular hedge policy as the jet price and then the Brent price are very high.”

(Corrects speaker’s title in final paragraph of story published May 21)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate traded around $96 a barrel. Pakistan’s army chief, the favored interlocutor between Washington and Tehran, arrived in the Iranian capital amid signals of progress in talks to end the war and ultimately reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz to energy flows.

Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has made a more concerted push to end the war in recent days.

“Near term, oil futures seem to be pricing in some sort of an agreement as WTI prices pull back below $100/bbl,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “Still, traders are becoming more desensitized to the ongoing negotiation headlines.”

Conflicting statements on key issues left it unclear whether the two sides were any closer to a deal after renewed threats of escalation in recent days, buffeting oil prices as traders try to gauge when oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the strait will fully resume. 

The war and the curtailment in supplies have seen global stockpiles of crude oil and products being drawn down at a record pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Should no agreement emerge between the parties to the conflict, and should passage through the Strait of Hormuz therefore remain severely restricted for the time being, stock levels will come under increased scrutiny,” Commerzbank AG analysts including Barbara Lambrecht and Carsten Fritsch wrote in a note. 

The International Energy Agency remains ready to free further stockpiles if needed, after a first release in March, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Thursday.

Meanwhile, US consumers are continuing to feel the impact of energy inflation. Gasoline prices stood at $4.55 a gallon as of Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association — the highest ahead of Memorial Day in four years. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low as long-term inflation expectations worsened.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

ICE’s futures prices for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate, known as WTI, will underpin the new perpetual contracts offered on OKX’s platform, the companies said in a statement Friday. The new contracts will be available on OKX, in which ICE holds a stake, across territories where the crypto company is already licensed to offer perpetual futures.

“Oil markets are critical to the world economy,” Haider Rafique, global managing partner at OKX, said in the statement. Bringing ICE’s benchmarks “into regulated perpetual futures is exactly the kind of bridge between traditional and digital markets that market participants have been asking for.”

Perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” are a type of derivative contract that give traders the ability to bet on prices of assets such as oil or Bitcoin. But unlike traditional futures, perps never expire, so traders don’t have to take possession of physical barrels of oil or roll over those contracts.

While perps began on crypto-native exchanges as a way to speculate on digital token prices, the growth into other assets has taken off in recent months, especially as news breaks over the weekend, allowing investors to take action outside of regular market hours. 

Most perpetual products are offered on offshore exchanges and aren’t regulated in the way traditional commodity exchanges such as ICE and CME Group Inc. are in the US. Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has said recently that he hopes to bring them under the agency’s oversight soon.

Hyperliquid, a fast-growing crypto exchange, started offering contracts tied to real-world assets including crude.

CME and ICE have been pushing regulators including the CFTC to rein in Hyperliquid, Bloomberg reported last week. 

In a sign of the convergence of crypto and traditional financial firms, ICE and OKX struck a deal in March, where both firms said they would work together to build technology, including blockchain networks, that would give ICE’s customers access to crypto-based futures and OKX customers the ability to trade tokenized securities on NYSE’s platform.

OKX, which has an on-chain wallet and marketplace, is headquartered in San Jose, California, for the Americas and in Dubai for the Middle East. 

The new perpetual contracts based on ICE’s data “allow OKX’s customer base of 120 million retail traders to access energy benchmark products,” said Trabue Bland, senior vice president of futures exchanges at ICE.

(Updates with details on OKX in penultimate paragraph. A previous version corrected the timing of story in eighth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Pham Nhat Vuong contributed $900 million to VinFast Auto Ltd. and paid another $1.59 billion to acquire some of its research and development assets. The $2.5 billion bet more than doubles his disclosed lifetime contributions to the EV-maker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from corporate disclosures.

Vuong established VinFast, which has yet to break even, in 2017 in a quest to build a global carmaker. The company lost nearly $4 billion last year as it opened plants in Indonesia and India as part of a pivot to Asia, following largely unsuccessful efforts to crack the US and European markets. On Thursday, the US state of North Carolina said it sued VinFast, alleging the company breached agreements tied to a planned electric vehicle factory.

The majority of Vuong’s wealth is derived from Vingroup JSC, his sprawling conglomerate that’s also VinFast’s parent. After rising eightfold last year, Vingroup’s shares have kept climbing through 2026, making him Southeast Asia’s richest person. He is worth about $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The long rally reflects Vingroup’s role as the No. 1 stock for foreign investors looking for exposure to Vietnam, but it also raises questions about the company’s valuation, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jason Low. It currently trades about 150 times price-to-earnings.

“The appreciation in Vingroup’s share price over the recent period primarily reflects the positive macroeconomic outlook of Vietnam,” a spokesperson for Vingroup said in response to emailed questions. “We aim to leverage favorable market conditions and capitalize on our market experience and execution capabilities to further strengthen and expand our businesses.”

Shares of Vingroup fell as much as 4.3% before trimming losses to close 1% lower on Friday. The stock has risen 968% since the start of 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To many in Vietnam, including senior government officials, Vuong and Vingroup are a testament to the country’s progression from a socialist economy to a market-oriented one. Vuong started in property development in the early 2000s after making a small fortune in Ukraine with an instant-noodle business. Today, Vingroup develops and operates residential and commercial real estate, resorts, hospitals and schools all over Vietnam, and has recently started ventures focused on robotics, films, steel and more.

VinFast is Vuong’s biggest bet to date. When its first car rolled off the assembly line, then-Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc declared it “a great day for Vietnam.”

The government’s increasing emphasis on the role of the private sector is also helping Vingroup’s share appreciation, a spokesperson for the company said.

Vuong has personally contributed at least one-quarter of the $17 billion of financing that’s been deployed since VinFast was founded. It sold nearly 197,000 cars last year and more than 400,000 electric scooters and bikes, posting $3.59 billion of revenue. Vingroup and other companies controlled by Vuong were responsible for 27% of that, down from 31% the prior year.

This month, VinFast said it will offload its Vietnam factories to a separate company, sell it and then enter into a manufacturing contract with it. The planned transaction will raise 13.3 trillion dong ($505 million) for VinFast.

Besides VinFast, the billionaire has recently expanded his corporate group into technology and energy — ventures that are potentially promising but very costly. They include green energy startup VinEnergo Energy JSC and high-speed rail company VinSpeed High-Speed Railway Investment and Development JSC.

Last year he gave some of his personal shareholdings in Vingroup to help establish and fund those two companies, regulatory filings show. It’s not clear what has happened to the shares, which currently would be worth nearly $6 billion. Vingroup said the companies can sell the shares as needed, or use them for capital-raising purposes. So far, they haven’t sold the stakes.

The market sees Vingroup “as a key beneficiary of the new pro-growth government,” said Anton Berg, an analyst at Sweden-based asset manager Coeli. The company can thank its size and ability to make huge investments, coupled with its low free float and retail investors chasing momentum trades, for its long stock rally, he said. 

But “the share price performance isn’t backed fundamentally,” he said. It’s “been a head-scratcher for the last two years.”

(Updates with Vingroup share price in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company is working with advisers to sell the interest in 1.2 gigawatts of solar and wind farms in France, Germany, Poland and Spain, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Any deal could fetch several hundred million euros, the people said.

A spokesperson for TotalEnergies declined to comment.

The potential sale is part of the oil major’s strategy of offloading 50% portions in renewable projects once they’re built to boost returns on such investments. While peers Shell Plc and BP Plc have pared back clean energy ambitions amid disappointing returns, TotalEnergies is pressing ahead with its diversification strategy in which power will represent about 20% of its energy output by 2030.

TotalEnergies last year agreed to sell a 50% stake in 1.4 gigawatts of North American solar assets in a deal valuing the portfolio at $1.25 billion including debt. It also sold 50% stakes in smaller portfolios of renewable assets in places including France, Greece and Portugal, and in some European electric car-charging networks.

This year, it agreed to sell a stake in a portfolio of German battery projects, and agreed with Abu Dhabi’s Masdar to pool onshore renewable energy assets in nine Asian countries that aren’t priority markets for the French firm.  

TotalEnergies plans to focus the growth of its power business in key markets such as Europe, the US and Brazil, as well as in countries where it produces oil and gas. It also wants to expand in select renewable markets, such as India and South Africa.

The French company bought German renewable project developer VSB Group last year, and completed the acquisition of a stake in European gas-fired power and biomass plants last month. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The vote will be held Oct. 19 and is a response to a bid by separatist activists to break away from Canada.

A group called Stay Free Alberta tried to force a referendum on secession, using a provincial law that allows citizens to petition the government for one. But last week, an Alberta court blocked that effort, finding the government failed to meet its duty to consult with Indigenous peoples on a major constitutional change. 

Instead, Smith’s government will call a new vote with the question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

Smith said in a televised address to the province that her position and that of her United Conservative Party is to remain in Canada, but she was “deeply troubled by an erroneous court decision that interferes with the democratic rights of hundreds of thousands of Albertans.” She said this new question avoids the legal problems the petition process faced because it doesn’t bind the government to move to separate from Canada.

Longstanding disputes between Alberta and the federal government have led to a sovereignty movement that’s seeking to reap the rewards of the region’s vast natural resources. Stay Free Alberta said its petition, which asked for an independence vote, garnered more than 301,000 signatures.

Jeffrey Rath, one of the leaders of the separatist movement, said there would be a lot of people upset at Smith’s new question and he would be campaigning to have her ousted as leader of the UCP at the next opportunity.

“There’s going to be 301,000 people in Alberta who stood in the cold, who stood in blizzards that did exactly what she asked them to do in order to get their question on a referendum ballot,” he said in an interview. “And she literally stabbed 301,000 people in the back.”

Surveys also suggest separatism lacks broad appeal and is particularly opposed by women and residents of Alberta’s largest cities. A poll last month of 1,200 residents by Janet Brown Opinion Research found support for the separatist cause at 27%, with 67% saying they would vote against it.

A rival petition from a group called Forever Canada, led by former Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, garnered more than 400,000 signatures supporting the province staying within Canada.

The premier has been threading a political needle on the issue of separation, knowing that a significant portion of her United Conservative Party membership favors leaving the country, while also saying she believes in staying within Canada. Smith’s said she understands separatists’ concerns, and she lowered the threshold for a citizen petition to trigger a referendum.

“If you wanted to put something on the ballot that would keep the separatist question in play in Alberta, I think this is as far as you can go inside the legal parameters that have been set out by these court decisions,” Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said in an interview.

Smith has previously announced that voters would get to weigh in on nine other questions on Oct. 19, largely to do with immigration measures and provincial powers within Canada.

Alberta, a province of about 5 million people, holds most of the country’s known oil reserves and exports millions of barrels daily to the US. Smith recently signed an agreement with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to advance a new pipeline to Canada’s west coast that would aim to start construction in September 2027.

Sheldon Sunshine, chief of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, one of the groups who successfully challenged the separation petition, said in an interview the potential breakup of the province was a uniting cause among Indigenous groups and they would continue to campaign to stay in government.

“We’re going to challenge them legally. We’re going to use every means that we have available to us,” he said. “We’re organized, we got teams put together, we’re preparing for anything.”

Ahead of Smith’s announcement, a group of 22 First Nations issued a statement saying despite submitting documents to cabinet and a special legislative committee that they had not yet heard back from the government on their concerns about a possible new question on separation.

Federal Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on X that the government remains “focused on building a stronger Canada for all, in full partnership with Alberta and to the benefit of all Albertans and all Canadians.”

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the federal Conservative Party, earlier on Thursday said his party would be supporting the remain movement.

“I will be campaigning across the province of Alberta, encouraging Albertans to stay as part of the Canadian family, and encouraging nationwide unity for all Canadians,” he said.

The independence movement was embroiled in controversy earlier this month when police began investigating the unauthorized use of about 3 million citizens’ personal data in Alberta.

An activist group called the Centurion Project was accused of unauthorized possession of Alberta’s list of electors, which contains names, addresses and other personal information of voters. The dataset comprises about three-fifths of the province’s population, according to Elections Alberta.

(Updates with reaction starting from seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The signing of two co-operation agreements between ADNOC and Indian companies will see the Abu Dhabi-based major seek future opportunities in crude oil, gas storage, and strategic reserves, in collaboration with the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

One agreement could raise ADNOC’s crude oil storage in India by up to 30 million barrels, using facilities in Mangalore and exploring options at Vishakhapatnam and Chandikol.

Storing millions of barrels of crude oil in India’s domestic petroleum reserves could give the country a critical buffer against future global supply chain disruptions.

The agreements, signed during a recent official UAE visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also examined the option of crude storage in the UAE port city of Fujairah as part of India’s strategic petroleum reserve, alongside storage opportunities for LNG and LPG in India.

ADNOC also has an agreement with Indian Oil Corporation for LPG supply and trading, including through ADNOC Global Trading, which builds on their existing 2023 LPG contract.

Growing existing ties

The strategic alliances advance bilateral collaboration in the energy sector and fortify the UAE-India bond, further strengthening their already robust energy relationship.

ADNOC’s partnerships with Indian companies meet growing energy demand, support economic growth, and diversify the energy mix. 

These agreements boost energy security as global shipping faces challenges stemming from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They strengthen the resilience of UAE-India energy supply chains and enable ADNOC to play a greater role in India’s growth story and energy needs.

Mutual opportunities

The UAE is the country’s third-largest trading partner after the US and China, while India is its largest export destination and trading partner.

H.E. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, commented that India’s scale and growth trajectory make it “one of the defining energy markets of our time”.

He said: “As demand accelerates alongside a rapidly expanding population, the strength of the UAE-India energy partnership becomes ever more critical.

“These agreements reinforce supply security, deepen our strategic ties, and underscore ADNOC’s role as a dependable and reliable partner in powering India’s long-term economic growth.”

Building on historic trade

The UAE region and India have a trading legacy dating back centuries. Their energy relationship formally began in the mid-1970s — shortly after the formation of the Emirates — with crude oil exports from Abu Dhabi.

The relationship expanded to a multidimensional partnership when the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) went into force on 1 May, 2022.

With both countries targeting $200 billion in trade by 2032, they have further strengthened bilateral economic ties, including in energy and defence. Government data shows trade activity increased 14.7% in 2025.

The UAE is expected to boost oil output following the 1 May announcement to leave OPEC, enabling greater freedom to increase production and supply to importers such as India, potentially at lower prices. The country already imports more than 85% of its crude requirements — about 11% of that, or up to 450,000 bpd — from the UAE.

Fuelling India’s growth

In January, the two countries also signed a $3 billion deal for India to buy LNG from the UAE.

New Delhi aims to raise natural gas's share of its energy mix to 15% by 2030, while ADNOC Gas has pledged to broaden its customer base and expand its presence in India and other key Asian growth markets.

The ADNOC subsidiary made a 10-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), a unit of state-owned Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).

This was announced during the January visit by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to India’s Prime Minister. At the time, Dr Al Jaber and Vikas Kaushal, Chairman and Managing Director of HPCL, reiterated the importance of the growing relationship between ADNOC and its Indian partners and customers.

ADNOC Gas has signed LNG contracts and agreements totalling more than $20 billion with Indian energy firms, making India the UAE’s largest LNG customer.

By 2029, it will operate at least 15.6 mtpa of LNG, with 3.2 mtpa contracted to Indian firms.

ADNOC previously said: “As one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies and a key driver of global energy demand, India continues to be a strategic priority for ADNOC and sits at the centre of key global energy growth trends.”

Inpex reached an agreement in principle with BP Plc, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk, PT PLN Energi Primer Indonesia and Shell Eastern Trading (Pte) Ltd. for LNG offtake from the Abadi LNG Project in eastern Indonesia, the company said in a statement on Wednesday. Inpex will work with the potential customers toward finalizing sale and purchase agreements. 

In a separate statement on Thursday, Perusahaan Gas Negara said it signed a preliminary agreement to buy LNG from the project for 15 years starting in 2033. 

The announcement signifies a step forward for the project, which is expected to have an annual production volume of 9.5 million tons, or about 10% of Japan’s imports. The Japanese firm aims to take a final investment decision in 2027. Inpex’s local subsidiary will be the operator, while Pertamina Hulu Energi PT and Petronas Masela Sdn. Bhd. hold stakes. 

Inpex also reached an agreement in principle with fertilizer maker PT Pupuk Indonesia (Persero) for pipeline gas supply from Abadi LNG Project, the firm said in its statement. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent neared $106 a barrel after sliding 5.6% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was around $99. Trump’s comments to reporters stoked hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran that would see a near-term restart of energy flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Conflicting headlines about the status of negotiations have buffeted oil this week, and prices are still more than 40% higher than when the war started at the end of February. Still, traders have consistently priced in the possibility of an abrupt deescalation, including a deal under which Iran reopens the key shipping lane and unlocks millions of barrels stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Though a peace deal with Iran stands to sink prices, “the physical markets are still in disarray,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. “It takes up to 55 days to get oil from the Persian Gulf to its destination, which means inventories will still be drawing during that period.”

Even if the Iran conflict ended immediately, Middle East oil flows would not fully recover until well into 2027, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber said Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz closure was the most severe supply disruption on record, he said.

Already, global stockpiles of crude oil and products are being drawn down at a record pace this month as the war drags on, curtailing supplies, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

US crude inventories slid by about 7.9 million barrels last week, broadly in-line with earlier estimates from a widely followed industry group. Exports were shy of recent record-high levels, as overseas buyers stock up on American oil to offset disruptions to Middle East supply.

Some nascent signs of higher flows through the strait are also siphoning risk premium out of crude prices. Three oil supertankers appeared to attempt to cross the waterway, the latest in a small uptick in traffic after a relative lull in recent days. Iran claimed 26 ships passed in the last 24 hours, though it has previously suggested far larger transit numbers than ship-tracking indicates.

Trump said on Wednesday “we’ll see what happens” with Iran, adding that a deal will be made or “we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen.” He has repeatedly threatened to restart strikes on Iran if it doesn’t agree to his peace terms.

Iran is reviewing the US’s new draft in response to Tehran’s 14-point proposal and is yet to give a response, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, citing a source close to the country’s negotiating team. Earlier in the day, Iran warned it would retaliate beyond the Middle East if the US or Israel attacks it again.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

SB Energy, based in Redwood City, California, is looking to capture investor demand for firms building out power infrastructure for artificial intelligence data centers. The company has raised more than $1.8 billion to fulfill its data center ambitions from SoftBank, OpenAI and Ares Management over the past year.

In February, SB Energy unveiled plans for a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant with an estimated cost of $33 billion. That plant would power SB Energy’s massive AI data center project being developed on a former uranium enrichment site in Piketon, Ohio. (One gigawatt is equivalent to a traditional nuclear reactor.)

Founded as a solar and battery storage developer, SB Energy has expanded its portfolio to include natural gas and building digital infrastructure for data centers.

That pivot has helped the firm tap into the data center boom. In January, OpenAI and SoftBank each committed $500 million to SB Energy and tapped the company to build and operate OpenAI’s 1.2 gigawatt data center in Milam County, Texas.

(Updates with context on the planned capacity of the Ohio project mentioned in the third paragraph. A prior version corrected the entity developing that project.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Rystad Energy says it is more than double last year's levels and would account for about 2.3% of total national electricity usage by the end of the decade.

New analysis from the independent energy research and business intelligence company confirms 28GW worth of new projects are due online by 2030. This brings the total to 32GW at the close of 2025, while installed capacity is projected to reach 40GW by later this year.

Statista recently reported that the US leads globally with 4,184 data centres, followed by the UK with 515, and China fourth with 369. As of November 2025, an estimated 12,000 data centres operated worldwide.

Resource organisation Global Electricity says these facilities currently consume 1-2% of global electricity — about 300-400 TWh annually — a number projected to double by 2030.

The World Economic Forum estimates the global data centre industry will be worth more than $584 billion by 2032 — more than twice the April 2025 estimate.

AI growth driving data centre energy consumption

The figures reflect the speed of buildout across the sector. Data centres are expected to be China’s fastest-growing source of power demand, with Rystad forecasting that consumption would rise at an annual rate of 19% between 2025 and 2030, driven by rapid growth in AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

These facilities are significantly more energy-intensive than data centres built for general-purpose computing; data suggests they will account for 39% of installed capacity this year, rising to an expected 48% by 2030.

Goldman Sachs Research analysts anticipated power demand from China’s data centres would increase 25% in 2025. They forecast that China's cloud service providers would raise capex by about 65% and top internet firms would invest more than $70 billion this year to support AI.

“One top cloud computing company and a major AI player plans to increase its data centre capacity 10 times by 2032,” said Timothy Zhao, Executive Director, Goldman Sachs Research.

Shift in China's power demand mix

The changing pattern of energy consumption is illustrated by figures from Rystad Energy: industrial demand is projected to slow from a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2021 and 2025 to 3% between 2026 and 2030.

Data centres, by comparison, accounted for 1.2% of total power demand last year. They posted a 38% CAGR over the past five years and are forecast to maintain a 19% CAGR through 2030.

Rystad expects China’s overall power demand to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% through 2030 amid efficiency improvements and shifts in the demand mix, down from 6.5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Consumption exceeded 10,000 TWh last year.

“China’s data centre sector is no longer a peripheral part of the country’s power system; it is becoming a structural driver of demand in its own right,” commented Rystad’s Simeng Deng, Senior Analyst, Renewables & Power Research.

“What sets this buildout apart is the speed of the AI-driven shift, which is compressing timelines for both infrastructure deployment and energy procurement.”

Renewables and efficiency targets

China operates a reliable power system with sufficient baseload from coal and resilient grid networks to supply surging data centre demand. However, the scale of sector expansion also offers an opportunity to boost the nation’s renewable energy use.

Data centre development is a strategic priority in China’s 2026-2030 15th Five-Year Plan. It places a dual focus on efficiency and renewable integration and, under the country’s 2025 action plan for green data centres, new projects within China’s eight national computing hubs are required to source at least 80% of energy from renewable sources.

Operators are responding with diversified procurement strategies.

Power sourcing strategies and integration

The most widely used method is green electricity certificate procurement, which offers flexibility without requiring physical access to renewable infrastructure.

Green power trading, direct connection to off-site wind or solar farms, and onsite generation are also strategies, with many operators layering multiple approaches to meet renewable targets and reliability requirements.

Wind, solar, and battery energy storage integration is emerging as key for the sector’s next phase, alongside grid connection, while power usage effectiveness (PUE) is a key metric of data centre efficiency.

Targets introduced in 2024 called for at least 60% utilisation of data centre capacity nationwide and an average PUE below 1.5 by 2025 end. A PUE of 1.25 or lower must be reached by new large and mega data centres, with a stricter 1.2 threshold for national computing hub projects.

“Operators are not waiting for policy incentives or mandates to integrate renewables,” added Deng.

“They are increasingly combining different power sources such as wind, solar and battery storage because reliable electricity and lower-carbon supply have become business priorities.”

Brent traded below $111 a barrel, after losing 0.7% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate was below $104. Trump said that the Iran war is going to end “very quickly” and that Iran “wants to make a deal badly” at the White House Congressional Picnic. 

Trump’s remarks followed earlier comments that the US “may have to give them another big hit” if Tehran rejects American peace terms, less than a day after he said he had called off an attack. The comments renewed concerns over a return to hostilities, though traders remain cautious after repeated threats of military action since the April 8 ceasefire failed to materialize.

When asked how long he would wait, Trump said: “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.”

“Markets need the threat to be a lot more imminent,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research, Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities. 

Oil also fell alongside broader markets, as mounting inflation concerns fueled a rise in global bond yields. With US 10-year bond yields rising well above 4.5%, markets may have a greater incentive to bet on Trump backpedaling, Varathan said.

Now in its 12th week, the war has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving global energy prices and inflation higher. The US also seized an Iran-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean overnight — at least the third such seizure targeting Tehran’s shadow fleet, the Wall Street Journal reported.

With no resolution in sight, news that NATO is discussing escorting ships through the strait should the route remain closed past early July also weighed on futures. Investors have increasingly priced in a prolonged closure, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. poll earlier this month — meaning a NATO-led effort could return supply to market faster than expected.

At a meeting in Beijing on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, state news agency Xinhua reported, as the two leaders sought to reinforce ties amid the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, White House officials are holding firm against restricting oil exports even as domestic inventories dwindle. An industry report indicated US crude stockpiles dropped by 9.1 million barrels last week, which would be the biggest decline since September if confirmed by official data due later Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a massive Brent crude put options bet equivalent to 134 million barrels traded in a single block. That rattled a market already on high alert for unusual flows.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

According to a landmark report by AVEVA and IMD, while 74% of leaders in such companies consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially with ecosystem partners. According to the report, the gap between ambition and execution leaves trillions in potential industrial intelligence untapped just as companies need it most.

Building and scaling business ecosystems

The inaugural report, jointly produced by AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software,  and IMD, the global business school, is titled Industrial Intelligence Report on Digital Ecosystems and the Future of Connected Industries, and was launched at AVEVA World 2026 in Milan on Tuesday.

In a fireside chat during the opening ceremony, Caspar Herzberg, AVEVA CEO, spoke with IMD Professor Mike Wade about the findings from over 275 interviews with leaders across 12 different sectors worldwide. Encompassing both quantitative analysis and detailed interviews with experts from the Port of Rotterdam, Kwinana in Australia and many others, the report distils how organisations can harness their industrial intelligence to build, orchestrate and scale business ecosystems.

The report reveals that while 74% of leaders consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially or extensively with ecosystem partners. Several illustrative case studies also emphasize the gap between ambition and execution: integration complexity, legacy systems and weak governance.

Industrial intelligence in action

The report found that organisations are increasingly seeking to construct digital ecosystems to confront higher-order business challenges - whether that is innovating faster, navigating supply volatility, or decarbonising complex global operations.

Yet, the gap between digital ecosystem ambition and execution remains wide. “With this collaboration with IMD, our ambition is not merely to understand the motivations behind the move to digital ecosystems, but to define the frameworks, competencies and leadership practices that will concretely enable companies to transcend silos and build more adaptive, ecosystem driven operating models,” Herzberg said.

AVEVA and AWS announce collaboration

During AVEVA World, the company also announced a multi-year strategic collaboration agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to accelerate the delivery of industrial intelligence in the cloud. The agreement deepens the companies’ existing relationship and establishes a framework for joint technology development, go-to-market execution, and customer migration support across the global industrial sector.

Under the terms of the agreement, AVEVA will expand its CONNECT industrial intelligence platform on AWS, as part of its broader move to a multi-cloud architecture. By bringing CONNECT and the broader AVEVA portfolio to AWS, the two companies aim to give industrial customers a faster, more scalable path to cloud-native operations, reducing the complexity and cost of managing on-premises infrastructure while enabling new AI-driven capabilities that were previously impractical at scale.

AVEVA and IFS to advance AI-powered asset intelligence

AVEVA also announced a technology partnership with IFS to enable complex industrial organisations to connect operational intelligence, enterprise execution and strategic capital planning. CEOs Caspar Herzberg and Mark Moffat shared the first wave of the collaboration at AVEVA World in Milan: Continuous Asset Decision Intelligence. This new solution is designed to turn real-time operational and asset data into smarter maintenance, investment and execution decisions across the integrated asset lifecycle. The benefit for customers is simple: less guesswork and timelier, evidence-based decisions.

AVEVA and Snowflake to unify IT/OT data ecosystems

As a part of the event, AVEVA also announced a collaboration with Snowflake, the AI data cloud company, to transform how industrial organisations unify, govern, and activate data across IT and OT environments. The collaboration establishes a direct, zero-copy integration between CONNECT, AVEVA’s industrial intelligence platform, and Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud, enabling customers to securely access, analyse, and activate industrial and enterprise data without the need for complex data pipelines or costly integration projects.

“Industrial customers need fast, secure access to trusted data across operational, engineering, and enterprise domains to support decision-making at scale,” said Rob McGreevy, Chief Product Officer at AVEVA. “Through this collaboration, we are extending our cloud-scale intelligence capabilities and enabling data to be accessed and used without duplication, helping bring operational intelligence into enterprise-wide decision within an open, partner-led ecosystem.”

These are the reasons why the UAE is doubling down across the value chain and building partnerships to drive an energy secure, prosperous future, H.E. Dr Al Jaber told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday during a virtual interview on the state of global energy markets amid geopolitical disruption, and how to achieve energy security, stability, and resilience in an era of volatility and uncertainty.

In a wide-ranging conversation with Helima Croft, Managing Director and the Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, H.E. Dr Al Jaber also laid out the staggering macroeconomic toll of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – from soaring inflation to severe energy under-investment, and described the ensuing energy crisis as an “everything story” that threatens the entire modern supply chain.

Despite these unprecedented challenges, H.E. Dr Al Jaber highlighted ADNOC’s operational resilience and explained the strategic rationale behind the UAE’s historic decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. He also invited the energy industry to convene in Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC to better understand the lessons from the energy crisis and develop new avenues of long-term collaboration. 

Here are edited excerpts from the conversation:

You have been extremely vocal about the cost to the global economy of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Can you give us your latest thoughts on the cumulative impact of this crisis?

The closure of [the Strait of] Hormuz is the most severe supply disruption on record. So far, the world has lost over a billion barrels of oil. And that number goes up by almost 100 million barrels every single week. Brent is trading at 40% above pre-closure levels. And Hormuz, as we all know it, is not just an oil story. It is, in fact, an everything story. Think about it. We're talking LNG, jet fuel, fertilisers, ammonia, urea, aluminium, helium, critical minerals, plastics, consumer goods, and other general cargo products. In other words, the entire supply chain of the modern global economy from the food on your table to the planes in the sky to the chips in your phone. Fuel prices are up 30%, fertilisers are up 50%, airfares are up 25% – every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load.

And this is now flowing into the macro numbers.

Global growth outlook has been cut to 3.1% for 2026. Inflation is already pushing past 4%. One stat really stands out. Just over 80 days into this conflict and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies. Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows. And full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

"When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand. We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia."

This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished. If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences.

The costs you've laid out are absolutely stunning and I would argue still underappreciated by many watchers of this war. I want to ask you specifically about the impact on the UAE.

I'm sure everyone here knows how well we managed the situation. But yes, and of course, we were affected. And I am sure you will agree that this was an illegal, erratic, unhinged and unprovoked attack. We never called for this. In fact, we did everything to prevent it from happening.

The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones, more than any other country in this conflict. Every single target was civilian, airports, terminals, refineries, gas-processing plants, residential areas, shopping malls, and most recently, the Barakah nuclear power plant. Now, whether carried out directly or through proxies, this was a terrorist act and a dangerous escalation. It showed a criminal disregard for civilian lives in the UAE and across the region.

And what we will remember from these months is not the missiles or the drones. It is in fact the millions of small acts of courage by people, nationals and residents, who kept our country running. And I am sure that you would agree this is a testament to the UAE's leadership that put people above everything else.

Could you talk more specifically about ADNOC operations? Can you talk about how your company has been resilient through this crisis?

When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand.

We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia.

We are also working with our partners, in particular our partners in Asia to expand and restock strategic storage to strengthen resilience against future shocks. And we continue to adapt our commercial strategy to ensure our products remain very competitive, reliable, and attractive to customers around the world.

The best proof of how we have adapted to the situation is in our financial results. Even in this environment, every one of our listed companies has achieved strong returns, many of them outperforming market expectations and analysts. That tells you something important about the robustness of our business, the strength of our strategy, and the strength of our nation.

In March, you talked about the lessons that we need to learn from this experience. Can you talk about how we come back from this better?

A few things have really stayed with me from the last few months. First, resilience matters a great deal. In fact, it is a critical success factor. It may seem expensive until the day you need it. And when you need it, it becomes priceless.

Second, AI must be built in, not bolted on. In a crisis, the speed of insight and the speed of decision-making is the difference between continuity and disruption.

Third, energy security is no longer just about the ability to continue to produce. It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy. Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few choke points. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. And it is why we moved ahead with our second pipeline in 2025. Today it's already almost 50% complete and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027.

And that leads me to one of the biggest lessons, investment. As a sector and as an industry, we are dangerously under-invested. Upstream investment is sitting at around $400 billion a year, which barely offsets natural decline rates. Global spare capacity is around three million barrels a day. It should be closer to five. And in just two months, the world drew down around 250 million barrels from storage. We have 30 to 35 days of effective cover. We need to at least double that.

And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions.

There has been a lot of conversation about the UAE's decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. Can you walk us through the sort of rationale behind that decision and what you hope will be the benefits of taking that choice?

The UAE is entering a new chapter of growth. This was a sovereign strategic decision made with clarity, passion, conviction and full confidence. We want greater flexibility to invest. We want greater flexibility to grow, to expand, to partner, and to create long-term value. Because ultimately, real strength is not measured by the abundance of resources, but by how they are harnessed to serve the nation. It is about how you use them to build industries, create opportunities, and safeguard the economy for future generations.

The bottom line is we didn't move away from something. We moved toward something. We are moving toward a world that needs more energy. With demand for oil staying well above 100 million barrels into 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces. And that is the lowest cost, lowest carbon barrels out there. And now we will have the flexibility to place more crude with customers everywhere.

"And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions."

At the same time, we in the UAE need more energy to move at the speed of our ambition. In particular, natural gas is increasingly strategic, not only for our business, but for power generation, AI infrastructure, manufacturing, advanced industries and economic growth.

Ultimately, this was not a reaction or a rupture and not directed against anyone or any institution. For us, responsibility does not end with membership. Outside OPEC, the UAE will remain what it has always been, a disciplined, responsible, credible reliable and a stabilising force in the global energy markets. We will keep engaging, we will keep talking, and we will keep showing up for our friends and partners when and wherever they need us.

Can you talk about the relationship with the United States? How has it evolved and where do you see it going? And how does it encompass all the things you've talked about in terms of AI, investment, security?

The relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the United States is becoming more integrated, more ambitious, and more consequential every year. We have a strategic partnership across technology, investment, industry, infrastructure, energy, defence, and much more.

Last year, bilateral trade reached a record of $39 billion. And the UAE remained America's largest export market in the Middle East for the 17th consecutive year. The investment story is even more impressive. We have invested more than $1 trillion in the United States, with more to come over the next decade. Our energy investments, for example, through ADNOC, XRG and Masdar now total more than $85 billion across 19 states.

The US remains a top investment priority for us simply because of its unique infrastructure, its unique combination of rich energy resources, deep capital markets, and pro-investment regulation. Through XRG, we already have significant assets from the Rio Grande LNG terminal to 18 chemical sites across the US through Nova Chemicals, Covestro, and Borouge. And we are currently proactively and actively exploring opportunities with many of our partners. Some of them do exist as partners and some new partners.

Our approach is simply across the whole energy value chain, with special emphasis on the gas value chain from upstream shale to regasification terminals and the distribution network. And of course, our relationship extends beyond energy. This includes AI and AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, financial services, and much more.

We invest in America because we believe in America. We believe its energy resources, its capital markets, its innovation ecosystem, and its people, and the quality of the ecosystem that has been created that helps attract investments. The UAE and the United States are not just trading partners. We are co-investors in the economy of the next century. And that is a partnership built on trust, not on transactions. 

According to the agreements, QatarEnergy has acquired an 18% interest in block OFF-4, while Shell holds 32%, and APA Corporation retains the remaining 50%.

QatarEnergy has also acquired a 30% interest in block OFF-2, which is operated by Shell with a 70% interest. 

For the third exploration block, OFF-7, QatarEnergy has acquired a 30% interest, with Shell retaining 40%, and Chevron holding the remaining 30%. 

Expansion into Uruguay’s upstream sector

His Excellency Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said: “We are pleased to strengthen our relations with our strategic partner Shell through these agreements, which mark our first entry into Uruguay’s upstream sector while further expanding our footprint in South America.”

H. E. Minister Al-Kaabi added, “We would like to thank the Uruguayan authorities for their support, and we look forward to working with our partners on this opportunity and to achieve positive results for the benefit of all parties.”

Blocks OFF-2, OFF-4, and OFF-7 are offshore along Uruguay’s Atlantic coast. They cover areas between 11,155 and 18,227 square kilometres, with water depths from 40 to 4,000 metres.

In its May Oil Market Report, the IEA stated that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers due to the Iran war have already exceeded 1 billion barrels. OPEC+ output fell by 1.74 mbpd in April compared to March, averaging 33.19 mbpd due to the Hormuz closure. The April figure includes the UAE, which left the cartel on 1 May.

OPEC cut its second-quarter oil demand forecast by a further 500,000 bpd and lowered its 2026 global oil demand outlook amid the impact of the Iran war with Israel and the US, although it said world oil demand would increase by “a healthy” 1.17 mbpd in 2026, year-on-year. Although this is lower than the previously expected 1.38 mbpd, OPEC forecasts a rebound, raising its 2027 demand growth estimate by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd.

Volatile prices

The IEA reported that benchmark oil prices had experienced “wild swings” in response to uncertainty over whether the US and Iran would soon reach a deal to end hostilities. North Sea Dated plunged from a high of $144/bbl to below $100/bbl before rebounding.

“With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mbpd of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock,” it said.

“The current supply-demand gap is significantly smaller, however, as the market was already in surplus heading into the crisis while producers and consumers alike are responding to market signals.”

Second quarter dip

OPEC expects global oil demand to average 104.57 mbpd in the second quarter, down from last month’s forecast of 105.07 mbpd. According to the Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC+ had planned to resume output increases from April, but the Strait blockade prevented this.

Meanwhile, OPEC said US crude imports dipped to a five-month low in April, averaging 5.8 mbpd in April, amid declines from the Middle East and Latin America, while US crude exports likely surged to a record high, estimated at 5.3 mbpd based on weekly data, driven by higher flows to Japan and South Korea.

Supply shifts

The IEA noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE redirected some exports to terminals loading away from the Strait.

“At the same time, stocks from commercial and government strategic storage sites in consuming countries are flowing into markets to offset part of the losses,” it said.

The IEA also reported that producers outside the Middle East raised output and exports to record levels in response to the crisis, and that 2026 supply growth expectations from the Americas had been revised up by over 600 kbpd since the start of the year, to 1.5 mbpd on average. Atlantic Basin crude oil exports have increased by 3.5 mbpd since February, with notable gains from the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela. Russia’s crude oil exports have also risen, as repeated attacks on its refineries cut domestic use.

Demand swings

OPEC stated that crude oil futures prices averaged higher month-on-month in April but remained volatile, “reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments, near-term supply conditions and trade flows”.

Its Monthly Oil Market Report said: “Geopolitical developments remained the dominant driver of market sentiment.” OPEC said global economic growth “continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East”. It added: “Global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.”

Additionally, the IEA’s monthly report noted that refiners had reduced runs and sharply scaled back crude imports, with Chinese seaborne crude imports falling by a huge 3.6 mbpd from February to April. Major import reductions were also seen in Japan, Korea, and India.

However, the IEA suggested that demand could return to growth by year-end if a peace deal is reached, allowing flows through the Strait to gradually resume from the third quarter of 2026. But it said supply would likely recover more slowly.

“As a result, the oil market remains in deficit until the final quarter of the year,” it said. “With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period.”

According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, power demand set a second consecutive annual record at 4,195 billion kWh in 2025, with projected rises to 4,248 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,379 billion kWh in 2027.

As well as data centre demand, the EIA says the increase is also driven by homes and businesses using more electricity and less fossil fuels for heat and transportation. However, it says power demand growth is led by the commercial sector, which is expected to outpace residential demand in 2027 for the first time.

Data centre energy appetite

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says data centres globally currently consume 485-500 TWh of power annually, accounting for about 2% of global electricity demand.

This rise in global demand reflects a rapidly increasing trajectory, primarily driven by the AI boom. As a result, projections indicate AI-specific hardware consumption will triple by 2030, nearly doubling overall data centre power use in that period.

The IEA says the AI-energy nexus is continuing to evolve rapidly, with capital expenditure by the largest technology companies exceeding $400 billion in 2025 and anticipated to rise a further 75% this year, fuelling data centre growth.

“Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production,” said the agency. 

IEA satellite tracking found cutting-edge AI data centres more than tripled capacity in the past 18 months.

AI efficiencies in context

The IEA said worldwide data centre electricity demand rose by 17% in 2025, in line with its projections. 

AI energy efficiency per task is improving at a rate "unprecedented in energy history," due to software and hardware advances.

However, this is offset by the increasing use of new energy-intensive AI applications, such as video generation, reasoning, and agentic tasks, which the IEA says can consume thousands of times more energy than simple text generation.

Managing bottlenecks

The agency said bottlenecks across energy supply chains have tightened since its last report amid a wave of data centre applications and a broader trend of rapid load growth and electrification, as the AI ecosystem scrambles for electricity and grid connections.

“An individual server rack within an advanced data centre is only the size of a large refrigerator, but by 2027 it could have peak power demand equivalent to that of 65 households,” the report noted.

The IEA suggested a possible upside in its mid- to longer-term outlook for data centre power demand, driven by investments to relieve bottlenecks across energy equipment and chip manufacturing.

On-site gas power is emerging in the US as developers bypass slow grid connections, with 15–27 GW expected by 2030, though the IEA cites uncertainties, such as a global gas turbine supply crunch.

Driving power innovation

Scaled battery storage could be critical to ensuring reliable supply to AI training and model-use data centres that induce large, rapid power swings.

The IEA predicts that 20-25 GW of global battery storage could be installed by 2030. With the right incentives, this could become a grid asset in the broader AI-driven acceleration of electricity sector deployment and innovation.

The agency cautioned that data centres could be a prominent flashpoint for concerns around energy prices.

But the IEA report also highlighted that AI has potential as an important tool in enhancing energy security and sustainability, such as optimising existing grid capacity.

However, it warned that the energy sector is yet to fully seize these opportunities.

An IEA survey of companies found that a lack of digital skills was the single largest barrier to greater AI adoption in the energy sector, while globally, less than half of energy demand was covered by policy frameworks promoting AI uptake in the sector.