Only one ship, bulk carrier LB Energy, was seen moving through the waterway early Thursday, with none seen entering. Products tanker Ocean Jewel is currently idling at the entrance to the corridor, having aborted a transit not long after Iranian forces began firing at three ships.

Two of those attacked vessels, the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, were subsequently boarded by Iranian forces, marking a new stage in Tehran’s efforts to exert control over traffic through Hormuz.

At least one vessel made it through in the hours after the shootings. Ascanio, a Greek-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier that had delivered food to Iran crossed the strait late Wednesday, and is now heading south in the Gulf of Oman.

Shipowners with vessels in the Gulf have been on edge in recent days, with Wednesday’s altercation marking the second round of attacks in less than a week. Over the weekend, Iranian forces abruptly ended a brief opening of the strait by shooting at passing vessels — a move Tehran later said was a response to the US decision to maintain its own naval blockade.

US forces say they have turned around 31 ships since its warships began barricading Iran’s coastline on April 13, most of them oil tankers.

While ship-tracking platforms indicate dozens of ships have crossed the blockade boundary, some of those have since been intercepted by US forces, the US said in a separate post. Of those, two Iranian supertankers are now anchored in Chabahar, an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman, while another is currently being escorted by a US warship.

LB Energy’s owner is Woody Chartering Ltd., according to maritime database Equasis, which has the same Greece-based address as its manager, Grehel Shipmanagement Co. Ocean Jewel’s owner and manager is Shanghai-based Ocean Jewel Shipping Co. Ltd. Ascanio Maritime Ltd., the owner of Ascanio, has the same address in Athens as its manager Minoa Marine Ltd. 

The companies didn’t immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

But a potential future shortfall is emerging as the industry confronts pressure to discover more oil and gas resources to service future needs and ensure energy security.

Exposing the gap

A financial disconnect is increasingly evident after a decade where investment in exploration has lagged behind production.

McKinsey & Company says capital spending on exploration has never been so low relative to production, suggesting a “discovery gap” as industry outlooks predict demand through to 2040. Part of the reason lies in uncertainty over the pace of the transition, combined with the need to generate investor returns.

This equation has led some energy companies to seek income from short-cycle projects, meaning more funds for finding projects such as onshore shale instead of areas requiring longer-term strategies, such as exploration and well discovery.

As the narrative has shifted, so too have conversations, as executives contemplate finding new oil and gas in the face of rising energy demand that cannot be met by renewables alone.

The supply-and-demand gap is widening, but reserves cannot be rebuilt without renewed exploration.

McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective (GEP) projects a 25 million barrel per day oil shortfall by 2040, while production from existing wells declines each year.

Total discovered resources in the last decade have dropped by more than 50%, from 331 to 156 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Only Guyana has yielded a sizeable new basin in the last decade. McKinsey notes: “Many companies now face hollowed-out exploration teams, long cycle times, increased unit exploration costs, and low success rates.”

Shrinking capital

The US/Israel conflict with Iran has resulted in damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The extent varies, as do the anticipated duration and cost of repairs; further disruption is being factored in by an industry currently confronting frozen production as shipping remains stalled through the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, consumers and refiners are tapping into oil inventories to mitigate the immediate impact of supply upheaval. In March, global oil stocks fell by 85 mb, even as on-land and offshore inventories grew in the Middle East and China, according to the IEA’s Oil Market Report (OMR).

“Global crude throughputs continue to struggle with disruptions to feedstock supplies and infrastructure damage that are tightening global product markets,” said the OMR.

McKinsey notes that reserve-replacement ratios have hit historic lows. Many firms now produce more oil and gas than they discover.

It identifies reduced capital expenditure as the primary of six reasons exploration has shrunk, falling about 6% each year since the 2014-15 crash; the same percentage increase for exploration wells drilled until then from 1995. That has since dropped about 12% annually.

Finding costs per barrel have climbed amid diminishing discovered resources and unattractive, lengthy cycle times averaging 20 years from exploration to oil recovery.

McKinsey says investors have tended to be risk-averse about long-term oil and gas returns in an uncertain energy transition climate, pushing firms towards near-term cash flow opportunities. This has “diluted portfolio optionality”.

In turn, talent pools and experience in companies have eroded, while few discovery prospects have clear seismic or geophysical signatures, increasing uncertainty in technical assessments and making portfolio outcomes less reliable.

Addressing the supply gap

Experts suggest a reset is required, beyond the geopolitical shocks currently impacting energy supplies.

It is clear long-term energy demand is going one way, so upstream investment must scale in exploration, infrastructure, and human capital — to ensure secure, reliable, affordable supplies.
McKinsey says companies will be required to make “integrated shifts in strategy, operations, and capabilities”.

This includes prioritising commercial barrels, moving faster with agile governance, and modernising risk frameworks to back more and larger bets.

It echoes suggestions to deploy digital capabilities and AI to compress cycle times and improve hit rates, “all while delivering strong risk-adjusted returns and lower environmental intensity to meet investors’ expectations”.

If limited exploration traits persist, operators could rely on costlier, more carbon-intensive barrels, something that clashes with decarbonisation aspirations in a delicate global economic environment.

McKinsey concludes: “With renewed talent, strategic partnerships, and a focus on advantaged resources at scale, exploration can play a decisive role in securing future oil and gas supply.

The Sabine Pass facility is a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil. The historic load marks an important step towards the commencement of full commercial and export operations.

New vessel receives debut shipment

The LNG cargo was safely loaded onto QatarEnergy’s Al-Qaiyyah, a recently built LNG carrier with 174,000-cubic-meter capacity from the Republic of Korea.

“This is a significant industry milestone that marks a new chapter in QatarEnergy’s global efforts to meet rising LNG demand and ensure reliable supplies to international markets,” said His Excellency Mr Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy.

“The Golden Pass LNG project is one of the single largest investment decisions in the history of the US LNG sector, affirming QatarEnergy’s position and reputation as a reliable provider and a trusted partner of choice that drives growth and development around the world.”

Landmark project in LNG supply chain

Golden Pass LNG is a 70/30 partnership between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil. The companies announced their final investment decision of more than $10 billion for developing the project in February 2019.

The Texas facility has 18 million tons per annum of LNG production capacity, 70% of which will be offtaken by QatarEnergy Trading, QatarEnergy’s wholly owned LNG trading entity.

Golden Pass LNG achieved sustained liquefaction operations and first LNG production from the first of its three LNG trains on 30 March.

The commencement of LNG offtake from Golden Pass LNG will complement QatarEnergy Trading’s global LNG portfolio and support the growth of its business.

“I would like to thank the relevant US authorities and regulators for their cooperation on this key project,” H.E. Minister Al-Kaabi added.

“We are also grateful for the strong commitment of the QatarEnergy and Golden Pass LNG teams in delivering this important energy project, as well as the invaluable role played by our strategic partner, ExxonMobil,” he said.

“Everyone is placing more emphasis on the new energy transition since the conflict in the Middle East” began, founder and chairman Li Zhen said in an interview with Bloomberg Television this week. Ongoing advancements in solar and wind, and cost improvements in batteries mean governments can “achieve self-sufficiency and not rely on fossil fuel supplies from a few countries,” he added.

Li’s comments come as the US-Israel war against Iran continues to snarl energy supplies and deepen worries about global inflation and energy security. Countries reliant on energy imports are accelerating the shift toward clean technologies, from solar and batteries to electric vehicles, mainly driven by businesses and consumers.

China’s exports of electric and hybrid vehicles more than doubled in March on a yearly basis, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association released this month. It’s an indication that individuals and industries are hunting for alternatives to traditional energy supplies. Ningbo Deye Technology Co., another energy storage maker, this month attributed a jump in its quarterly profit to stronger overseas demand driven by geopolitical risks.

Gotion, which counts Volkswagen AG as its largest shareholder, sees demand for energy storage systems — needed to ensure constant supply from renewable sources like solar and wind — growing to five times more than for EVs in the long run, Li said.

China’s energy storage industry has seen strong demand from power grids and data centers for artifical intelligence over the past year. Meanwhile, growth expectations for EVs have been dampened by intense competition and a slowing economy. 

“The momentum in AI means it will require a lot of electricity, therefore more energy storage is needed. And that’s a huge opportunity for us,” Li said.

The Shenzhen-listed company’s shares have doubled over the past year.

Gotion seeks to build capacity of 100 gigawatt-hours each in the APAC and EMEA regions as well as the Americas in the next five years and double overseas shipments this year. Li said the Asia-Pacific region may see “faster demand growth.”

The Hefei-based firm also aims to boost domestic growth by 50% this year, he said. 

Gotion, which supplies batteries to carmakers including Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., has been stepping up overseas expansion in recent years, with factories planned in the US and Morocco, as well as one in Slovakia that is slated to start production by end of the year, according to Li.

However, the company has said it could not move ahead on plans for a $2.4 billion Michigan battery plant announced in 2022 because of a withdrawal of support from the US state and local partners. Top Chinese battery makers, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. and BYD Co. Ltd. have also faced backlash in the US due to security concerns and calls for supply-chain independence in Western countries. 

“We must strive to improve our battery, and cooperate better with the American markets,” Li said, adding he believes Gotion can “help solve local employment problems, contribute to tax revenue and play a role in local economic development.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company’s Australian and Papua New Guinean assets will report to four regional business units, instead of having individual management teams, according to executives familiar with the situation and an email sent by Brett Darley, Santos’ chief operating officer for Australia and PNG upstream oil and gas. The executives asked not to be named as the announcement is not public.

“By focusing on efficiency and productivity, discipline and innovation, we will ensure our business continues to deliver safe, reliable, and competitive energy for decades,” he wrote. The changes come as the company approaches the end of a multiyear phase of production growth, which will need it to shift focus toward improving profitability across its existing operations, according to the email. 

Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher has faced criticism after an attempted sale to a consortium led by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. faltered last year, and investors have demanded higher growth and returns. After reporting a slump in profit in February, Santos launched a review of its Australian operations and slashed its workforce.

Shareholders including Australian pension fund HESTA have pointed to a limited pipeline of new energy projects and declining green capital expenditures, while also criticizing Gallagher’s remuneration.

It was not immediately clear whether the overhaul would result in reduced headcount. Many Santos managers will need to relocate from their jobs in Western Australia to Brisbane, according to the executives.

The Alaska business unit will not be impacted by the changes, it said.

“At times, roles across the organization have relocated to align with activity levels and locations,” Santos said in an emailed statement. “With our organizational changes announced earlier this year, some activities and a small number of roles may be relocated to the appropriate operating centers.”

The corporate center will remain in Adelaide, the company said by email.

(Updates with company comment in the last two paragraphs.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent futures briefly climbed above $100 a barrel in London, after falling earlier when Iran said it received “some sign” that the US was willing to end its blockade, opening the path for talks. 

Crude has been whipsawed by mixed signals from both sides, while shipping through Hormuz, a vital artery that normally carries about one‑fifth of global crude flows, remains at a near-halt. Volatility has soared to its highest since 2020, when the Covid pandemic sapped demand.

US President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran just before its expiration, while maintaining a naval blockade of the strait after planned talks between the two sides fell apart. He said the US would hold off on fresh attacks but keep blocking ships linked to the Islamic Republic until “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”

Trump later said in a post on Truth Social that if the US lifted its blockade to open the Strait of Hormuz, “there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included!”

The UK Navy said two ships were fired at near the Strait of Hormuz, the latest incidents following shootings over the weekend that ratcheted tensions higher in the vital waterway and kept maritime traffic at a near standstill.

Iran won’t reopen the strait as long as the US Navy continues to intercept ships and will, if necessary, break the blockade by force, Tasnim reported earlier, citing sources. The US on Tuesday said it stopped and boarded a sanctioned oil tanker, after seizing a cargo ship over the weekend, and has turned around a total of 28 vessels.

“As long as flows through the Strait remain restricted, the market keeps tightening up, keeping prices supported,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS AG in Zurich.

At least two fully laden Iranian tankers have sailed out of the Persian Gulf and past a US blockade this week, part of a flotilla that has made its way around the warships and ferried roughly 9 million barrels of oil to the market.

“Headlines are coming at 100 miles an hour, but the barrels are still stuck in neutral,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “The back-and-forth around a ceasefire extension, potential blockade, and Iran’s role is keeping markets on edge, but the reality is flows remain constrained.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Hero II and Hedy, two Iran-flagged, very-large crude carriers, were captured in satellite imagery moving past the blockade line announced by the US and into the Arabian Sea on April 20, according to data intelligence firm Vortexa. The two can carry as much as 4 million barrels of oil.

Frustrated with Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s ability to continue shipping its crude, President Donald Trump announced a blockade last week — interdicting Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf. A cargo vessel was seized at the weekend, and the US government said on Tuesday that it had boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in waters east of Sri Lanka.

Figures from Vortexa, however, suggest that Iran is still able to export its oil, with at least 34 Iran-linked tankers and gas carriers making their way through the strait and past the warships. Of those, 19 have been heading out of the Gulf, and most were carrying cargo.

Vortexa detected the shipments using satellite imagery, as vessels seeking to circumvent US forces are typically turning off their transponders. Hero II was last seen more than a month ago when it was sailing northward in the Strait of Malacca, while Hedy last broadcast its location off Khor Fakkan in late February.

The ultimate destination of the two shipments was not clear. The vast majority of Iran’s crude exports end up in China, though India received two shipments of Iranian crude in recent weeks before a US sanctions waiver expired.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“It won’t be smooth sailing,” Katrina White, a clean energy analyst, said during a presentation Tuesday at the BNEF Summit New York.

BNEF is forecasting more than 100 gigawatts of new demand in the next decade for data centers, with many of those turning to natural gas — a fuel that can provide round-the-clock power. That option is running into rising costs for turbines and supply chain bottlenecks. Meanwhile, White said wind, solar and batteries are faster to build, but the cutting of key financial incentives, tariffs, permitting red tape and long waits to connect to the grid are holding projects back.

Earlier in the day, Toby Rice, the chief executive officer of natural gas producer EQT Corp., also said as much as 100 gigawatts of additional power may be required for artificial intelligence computing facilities and other large power users.

“That’s the energy equivalent of adding over 20 New York Cities,” Rice said during a panel discussion Tuesday. “And we need to add it quickly.”

Power has become one of the critical hurdles for US technology companies racing to build out the infrastructure needed to support artificial intelligence systems. One gigawatt is equivalent to a traditional nuclear reactor.

Data center developers are pouring billions of dollars into projects across the US, but the electricity industry is struggling to scale to meet their massive demand needs. Limited transmission capacity, long waits for grid connections, labor shortages and slow permitting process are all threatening to delay new power projects.

“That’s really the bottleneck,” Karen Fang, global head of infrastructure and sustainable finance at Bank of America Securities Inc., said during the morning panel. “It’s really the physical aspect of the system-level execution.”

For power-hungry assets, renewables can be the fastest to deliver electricity. But the Trump administration’s rollback of policy support for green energy and introduction of regulatory red tape has thrown up additional roadblocks, White of BNEF said. 

“In many cases, this red tape can actually be deemed illegal, but it still provides so much disruption to the industry that it delays project timelines,” White said.

While there remains plenty of capital available for power infrastructure projects, deploying it remains another challenge for the industry, including finding enough bankers to do deals. 

“The banks that are financing our projects are also financing the data centers and the LNG terminals, so I think human capital constraints is definitely a concern,” said Matthew Ransweiler, senior vice president of finance at Invenergy, a power producer and developer. 

In addition, some banks are hesitant to make tax equity investments into clean energy projects until new federal rules on foreign entity ownership are clarified, Ransweiler added. However, the sheer demand for electricity will likely mean there should be plenty of funding for power projects, even those that will lose tax breaks, said Eugene Kasozi, managing director for project finance at BBVA CIB. 

“Demand is driven by the need for power, which then drives the need for infrastructure, which then drives the need for capital,” Kasozi said. “That’s a very healthy pull versus push situation.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Installations of long-duration systems — an umbrella term for so-called super-batteries that can store and deliver electricity for many hours or even days — are surging as the world looks to better harness renewable energy. Deployments are forecast to almost quadruple this year after a record 2025, according to BloombergNEF.

China has built a commanding lead in lithium-ion batteries, which generally hold up to four hours of discharge and can delay the use of daytime solar power until the evening demand peak. Storage over far longer time periods — to handle sustained spells of low renewables output, or to ensure grid stability — has greater potential for competition as it encompasses a wider range of technologies.

Those options include batteries using a more eclectic mix of metals, or systems that can store energy in hot bricks, tap the potential of gravity, or compress air into caverns. 

“The race is still pretty much open,” and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution, said Frederic Godemel, executive vice president for energy management at Schneider Electric SE, a supplier of power equipment including server racks and cooling technology.

While China currently accounts for about 72% of cumulative long-duration storage capacity — including almost all installations last year — the US is the second-largest market and expected to ramp up deployments later this decade, as are nations including Germany, India and Japan, BNEF said last month. US installations could be accelerated further as the boom in data center construction adds fresh demand for reliable power.

“China leads in scale,” said Yiyi Zhou, a BNEF analyst specializing in energy storage. “The US has the most diversified type of technology in development.”

Unlike in other areas of clean technology, Chinese companies also have less potential to become major exporters and capture market share overseas. China is focused on a narrower set of technologies than other countries, and long-duration storage — often referred to as LDES — can typically need specific designs for particular locations.

“Long-duration storage is not a commodity like solar panels,” said Zhou. “I don't expect LDES to be easily exported at a large scale.”

That’s likely to support domestic supply chains, and the UK and Italy are among nations already setting policies to encourage deployments. Developing viable and cost-effective methods for 10 to 100 hours or more of storage “should be a priority for governments anticipating future high shares of variable renewable electricity supplies” or weather-related disruptions to hydropower, the International Energy Agency said in a February report.

Long-duration storage technology is “one of the critical missing pieces for deeply decarbonized power systems,” said Kostantsa Rangelova, a global electricity analyst at climate think tank Ember.

Soaring US demand for electricity and a shortage of natural gas turbines — which complicates the prospects of quickly adopting the fuel — also “opens up a door” for long-duration storage that can complement renewables, said Gabriel Kra, co-founder of Prelude Ventures, a venture capital firm that has invested in Form Energy Inc., a Somerville, Massachusetts-based startup.

“There is nothing that I see in the evidence or the data that would suggest that Chinese companies, or any particular Chinese company, has any advantage right now,” Kra said. 

Form Energy, which deploys iron-air battery technology that can feed electricity to power grids for 100 hours, completed an agreement last month with a data center developer. In February, the company struck a similar deal to supply utility Xcel Energy Inc. for a Google site in Minnesota.

California is set to host one of the world’s largest compressed air energy projects — which works by squeezing air into tanks or natural caverns and releasing it through a turbine to generate electricity. Because long-duration storage assets need both technical expertise and local knowledge, it’s unlikely startups outside China will lose ground to “a Chinese developer coming and competing in our backyard,” said Curtis VanWalleghem, chief executive officer of Toronto-based Hydrostor Inc., the Kern County project’s developer.

“We know this market extremely well, where to put things, and we have the special technology,” he said. “Our solution has a unique value proposition, that when we optimize around it, we can win.”

While the sector is forecast to grow outside China and deliver new opportunities to startups, the world’s No. 2 economy will remain the crucial market for long-duration technologies. Yet China’s frontrunner companies aren’t domestic battery titans like Contemporary Amperex Technologies Co. Ltd., which are largely engaged in pushing the potential of existing product types.

Zhongchu Guoneng Technology Co., a VC-backed spinout from the Chinese Academy of Sciences that uses compressed air technology, and Dalian Rongke Energy Storage Group Co., a vanadium-flow battery company, are currently among the nation’s leading firms, according to BNEF. China’s government is also supporting dozens of pilot projects testing alternatives to lithium-based technologies.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The funding round was led by VXI Capital and included investments from Engine Ventures and Tamarack Global, according to a statement Tuesday. Among other things, the Chevy Chase, Maryland-based company will use the proceeds to pay for equipment that needs to be ordered long in advance. 

Blue Energy plans to build a power plant for a data center being developed in Port of Victoria, Texas. The company will initially use natural gas generators at the site, then later install small reactors using a standardized construction model that can be repeated. 

The strategy will make the project faster to develop and easier to finance by avoiding the kind of massive cost overruns that have long bedeviled large traditional reactors that are highly customized, Chief Executive Officer Jake Jurewicz said. 

“This is the Ikea kit for how to build a nuclear power plant,” Jurewicz said in an interview. 

Blue Energy, which is doing early development work at other locations, plans to use light-water reactors for its projects and is evaluating several vendors. The company says it already has a supplier lined up for the gas turbines.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent dropped as much as 1.1% to $94.44 a barrel after gaining 5.6% on Monday. Iran is sending a team to the Pakistani capital, according to people familiar with the plans who declined to be identified, although it is not clear who would lead the delegation. Earlier, Tehran had said it was hesitant to participate in further peace talks with the US.

Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,” Donald Trump said in a phone interview on Monday. The US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the truce, which expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time.”

Oil prices have been buffeted in recent days amid rapidly shifting perceptions of the negotiations’ status and whether ships can navigate the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s crude normally transits. The standoff over Hormuz threatens to deepen the global energy crisis and is just one of the unresolved issues between Iran and the US, which also include the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities and Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. 

“Either we move toward some form of de-escalation or this drags into a more prolonged disruption, especially around energy supply,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group. “The market will be super sensitive to any headline updates in the next 24 hours.”

Monday’s session saw conflicting statements from Trump about the timing and viability of peace talks. Oil extended gains after he said that the US would continue to block the strait for Iran-linked ships until an agreement is finalized.

Meanwhile, Hormuz flows remain at a virtual standstill, with three vessels attempting to transit early Tuesday. The crisis flared again over the weekend after the US Navy seized an Iranian vessel while the Islamic Republic’s forces fired at ships and reimposed controls across the strait.

On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for an immediate ceasefire and the restoration of normal transit through the waterway, according to a Foreign Ministry read-out of a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Oil prices could rise to $110 a barrel if traffic in the waterway remains disrupted for another month, according to Citigroup Inc. Global energy markets may be volatile for two years because of the war, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The first turbine installed at the $5.4 billion East Anglia THREE project features 115-metre blades — the biggest manufactured and used in the UK, with each one longer than a Premier League football pitch.

Impressive statistics

All 285 blades for the project’s 14MW turbines — 95 in total — are being manufactured at Siemens Gamesa’s factory in the north England city of Hull.

When complete, the 1.4GW East Anglia THREE project will produce enough clean power for more than 1.3 million homes.

At 262 metres, the turbines stand higher than the observation deck at The Shard, Britain’s tallest building.

Each turbine has a rotor diameter of 236 metres, and one single revolution will produce enough electricity to power a home for more than four days, charge about 1,700 mobile phones, or brew almost 1,000 cups of tea.

Defining moment

ScottishPower — part of Iberdrola Group — has invested $41 billion in the UK over 15 years. Its ScottishPower Renewables business has 40-plus operational offshore and onshore wind farms and solar sites, generating enough green electricity to power about two million homes.

Charlie Jordan, ScottishPower Renewables’ CEO, described the installation as a UK industry first and a defining moment for ScottishPower, Iberdrola and Masdar as we “celebrate and accelerate the deployment of homegrown renewable energy at scale”.

He continued: “East Anglia THREE will be the biggest and most powerful offshore wind farm in our portfolio.

“That means billions invested in the UK and global supply chains. East Anglia THREE will play a crucial role in the UK’s clean energy future.”

Wind power at scale

Located off the Suffolk coast, it will become one of the world’s largest offshore wind farms when it comes into operation. More than 2,300 jobs have been supported during construction.

“We see tremendous potential for offshore wind, not just in the UK but across the wider European market, where offshore wind can provide critical energy security, power economic progress, and help nations achieve their clean energy objectives,” said Husain Al Meer, Director of Global Offshore Wind at Masdar.

The East Anglia THREE turbine blades are seven metres longer than the previous record.

“These are the biggest blades ever built for a project in UK waters — a real landmark for offshore wind,” added Darren Davidson, UK Head of Siemens Energy and Siemens Gamesa.

Proven alternatives

The global dependence on this narrow waterway has been laid bare during the Israel/US war with Iran, sending economic pain across continents. With about 20% of global oil supply — some 86 tankers daily — usually passing through Hormuz, existing bypass options have confirmed effectiveness and rewarded investment.

The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) by ADNOC proved critical when the Strait closed, allowing movement of up to 1.8 mbpd from onshore Habshan fields to Fujairah port on the Indian Ocean. International Energy Agency (IEA) data shows a parallel natural gas liquids pipeline with a capacity of 300,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia’s 7 mbpd capacity East-West Petroline — built during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war to ease Strait reliance — takes supplies from Abqaiq to the Red Sea coast Yanbu terminal.

The efficacy of each has underlined the need for more shipping methods, not least if Tehran again chokes Strait traffic or introduces tolls.

Energy shocks highlight Hormuz exposure

Iranian missile attacks also made the 1,200km Petroline and Fujairah facilities targets, while Red Sea shipments remain exposed to Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have no alternatives to Hormuz, and the LNG sector, where Qatar and the UAE together represent almost 20% of global exports, is transit-vulnerable.

“There are no alternative export routes other than tankers through the Strait,” said Ross Wyeno, Associate Director, Lead LNG Short-Term Analysis at S&P Global Energy.

All this drives the need for suppliers to shape the future via substitute routes for hydrocarbons from the Gulf.

An average of 20 mbpd of crude and oil products were shipped through the Strait in 2025, along with about 25% of global seaborne oil trade, of which 80% was destined for Asia. Regardless of negotiated outcomes to the conflict, Iran could still wield influence over shipping lanes in the Hormuz.

Options in focus

KSA could potentially rehabilitate its 1.65 mbpd Iraqi Pipeline through Saudi Arabia (IPSA) and Trans-Arabian Pipeline (Tapline).

The former linked Al-Zubair, southern Iraq, to Red Sea port Mu’ajiz, but hasn’t carried Iraqi crude since August 1990.

Tapline could hypothetically channel 500,000 mbpd Saudi crude to the Mediterranean. Built in 1950 from KSA’s Eastern Province to the Zahrani terminal near Sidon, Lebanon, it remains robust despite ceasing operations in 1983. Oil transportation costs via Tapline to Europe could prove up to 40% less than shipping through the Suez Canal.

The IEA has proposed building a new pipeline linking Iraq’s Basra oil fields and Türkiye’s Mediterranean terminal in Ceyhan.

Türkiye has also proposed extending the strategic Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which began moving crude from northern Iraq in 1976.

Syria is being considered as a potential transit route to the Mediterranean, though this could increase transit times and costs for Asian customers. Kuwait has no meaningful bypass capacity but could revive discussions about linking into Saudi infrastructure.

Türkiye, Syria and Jordan also recently agreed to modernise their railway systems — eventually creating a contiguous corridor between southern Europe and the Gulf — although this would require specific fuel-carrying railcars.

The UAE and Jordan signed an agreement last week to build and operate a $2.3 billion railway linking Jordan’s mining areas to Aqaba port. The 360km project is the first step in building a Jordanian national rail network connecting Aqaba with neighbouring Arab countries, including ports in Syria and the Mediterranean.

Mapping the hurdles

New or rehabilitated cross-border arteries could be costly, politically and geographically complicated, and take years to complete.

However, energy suppliers and consumers now fully recognise the Strait’s fragility — and the price of disrupting vital supplies.

Christopher Bush, CEO of Lebanon-based Cat Group, cited a $5 billion cost to replicate Saudi Arabia’s pipeline today. He said more complex routes from Iraq through Jordan, Syria, or Türkiye could top $15-$20 billion, besides potential security risks, operation and ownership disputes, or terrain challenges.

But, Bush added, “You have a lot of smart minds looking at all of this now.”

Beyond Capex, market realities could limit the viability of many options, not least as Middle Eastern crude flows mostly to Asia rather than Europe.

That could flip policymakers toward growing existing infrastructure: gradual expansion, such as increasing pipeline capacity or storage, could prove more achievable in enhancing resilience.

The Financial Times said KSA is considering expanding capacity or developing additional export routes and Red Sea terminals, including NEOM-linked projects.

Possible long-term options could embrace broader trade corridors stretching from India through the Gulf to Europe.

And the UAE already reportedly has new pipeline capacity under development. According to Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy and Energy Connects columnist, ADNOC planned to build another 1.5 mbpd pipeline to connect offshore fields to Fujairah.

As economists assess the fiscal impact of the Strait’s weaponisation, the energy industry is appreciating the risk-reward calculus of investing in alternative channels.

ADCOP was reported to have cost $4.2 billion after completion in 2012. “Under current wartime oil pricing, the invaluable exports it carries would pay within a month,” added Mills.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will announce a series of steps to delink power and gas prices Tuesday, according to government officials. One measure will involve offering a new voluntary fixed-price subsidy for older wind and solar farms.

With the UK’s cap on energy prices expected to surge 20% this summer as a result of the Iran war, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure to reduce bills for consumers. At the same time, Miliband has said the government’s response to the war should be to double down on green power and his goal of virtually eliminating fossil fuels from the electricity mix by 2030.

Even as the share of renewables rises in the UK power mix, gas retains a stubborn grip on prices. Green subsidies in the UK are paid for via consumer power bills and about one-third of electricity generation receives the prevailing wholesale price via a now-retired scheme called the Renewables Obligation. The wholesale power price is mostly set by gas because it is often the country’s “marginal” fuel, the last — and most expensive — fuel brought on to meet demand.

Newer projects get cheaper fixed contracts and the government has so far failed to convince older projects on the RO to move to those Contracts for Difference. 

With gas costs rising sharply last month, the issue is front-of-mind for policymakers, not only in Britain but throughout Europe.

As part of the latest effort, the government will increase the windfall tax on projects still on the RO in a bid to encourage them to shift to CfDs, the Guardian reported. A spokesperson for the Treasury said they don’t comment on tax speculation.

Miliband will use his speech on Tuesday to resist calls from critics for him to reverse or slow the government’s clean-power drive. 

“As we face the second fossil fuel shock in less than five years, the lesson for our country is clear: The era of fossil fuel security is over, and the era of clean energy security must come of age,” he will say, according to a government statement.

The new so-called Wholesale Contract for Difference will be offered on a voluntary basis to projects on the RO, one of the people said. Those who sign up will continue to receive the RO, but it will be measured against a fixed price CfD, meaning the price will be more stable. These will be offered within the coming year. 

UK power stocks dropped after the plans were first touted by Reeves last week, with the news raising fears that lower electricity prices would hurt earnings for generators such as SSE Plc and Centrica Plc.

“For years, the idea of de-linking gas and electricity prices to make the most of homegrown British renewables has been on the table, and the government is taking another step towards that which is useful for stabilizing our bills,” said Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, a non-profit research and analysis organization.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Trump on Monday signed five presidential determinations under the law, targeting domestic coal power, liquefied natural gas, domestic petroleum and power-grid infrastructure — areas where he said insufficiencies threaten national defense.

The move allows the Energy Department to deploy funding that was secured last year in Trump’s flagship tax-and-spending package. Under the directives, the agency is authorized to use energy purchases, financial support and other tools to overcome delays, financing shortfalls, regulatory hold-ups and market barriers. 

With Trump’s signature, the determinations set the stage for the federal government to release funds targeting purchases under those categories later. Projects eligible for support could include coal-fired power plants, refineries and facilities that manufacture gas turbines and transformers — electrical equipment that’s been subject to shortages.

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers cast the move as helping Trump fulfill his promise “to fully unleash American energy dominance to protect our economic and national security.”

The determinations allow the use of federal funding to “strengthen our grid infrastructure and unleash reliable, affordable, secure energy,” she added.

Consumer worries about high energy costs have weighed heavily on the White House as the Iran war drags on. Voter concerns about high costs of living — including for electricity and gasoline — could imperil Republicans’ control of Congress in November’s midterm election. Surging power demand — in part to help supply the artificial intelligence industry — also threatens to keep driving up electricity bills Trump promised to slash in office.

Trump has pushed to expand domestic oil and coal-fired electricity production, saying that will help ease energy bills and match the growing demand for power by rapidly developing industries such as artificial intelligence.

On Monday, the president said coal-powered generation is necessary to provide stable electricity “to support defense installations, industrial expansion, and the high-energy demands of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence.” He described the nation’s “aging and constrained electric grid infrastructure” as posing “an increasing threat to national defense,” especially given limited US capacity to produce and install transformers, high-voltage transmission components and other equipment. 

Trump also labeled LNG capacity as critical to ensuring energy security for allies and emphasized that inadequate pipelines, processing, storage and export capacity “would leave the United States and its partners dangerously exposed in times of crisis.” And he declared US refining capacity central to fuel the nation’s armed forces, asserting that “without immediate federal action, United States defense capabilities will remain vulnerable to disruption.”

The Defense Production Act allows presidents to take unilateral actions to bolster US national defense capabilities, including by directing private-sector companies to expand production of critical industrial materials. Trump has already invoked the Cold War-era statute to advance some of his energy priorities, including a bid to clear the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast.

Former President Joe Biden also invoked the DPA to bolster energy technology, with the aim of boosting domestic production of solar panels, transformers, heat pumps and fuel cells.

Trump set the stage for aggressively using the law on his first day back in office, when he formally declared a national emergency tied to US energy supply and infrastructure. The directive said the country faced an “extraordinary threat” from insufficient energy production, transportation and refining capacity.

(Updates with details from signed memoranda starting in second paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Trump said in a Monday phone interview that the truce, which he announced April 7, expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time” — possibly buying more time for negotiations. But the president also said it’s “highly unlikely that I’d extend it” if no deal is reached before then.

“I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal. We’ve got all the time in the world,” the president said. 

In the interview, Trump reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would stay blockaded for now, saying “the Iranians desperately want it opened. I’m not opening it until a deal is signed.” Iran previously said it would open the critical waterway for energy supplies to international shipping, but reversed that decision in light of Trump’s refusal to follow suit.

Details about the next negotiating session, expected to take place in Pakistan, started to came into focus on Monday. Iran is also sending a team, according to people familiar with the plans who declined to be identified, although it is not clear who would lead the delegation. Earlier, Tehran said it was hesitant to participate in further peace talks with the US. 

Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning,” Trump said. He is expected to be joined by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

The president sounded an optimistic note about the discussions, saying he would love to participate in person, but did not think it would be necessary. 

“There’s going to be a meeting. They want a meeting, and they should want a meeting. And it can work out well,” Trump said. 

At the same time, both sides sought to jockey for leverage ahead of negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X that “deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. gov conduct remains” and declared that “Iranians do not submit to force.” That message came after Trump said Iran would “be hit very hard” if no deal is reached. 

Trump’s comments and Tehran’s decision to dispatch negotiators represented fresh signals the two sides are continuing to work on a deal to end the war that began in late February, when the US and Israel struck Iran. Those attacks prompted Iranian forces to hit US bases in the region and destroy oil and gas infrastructure belonging to American allies in the Persian Gulf, triggering a worldwide energy crisis.

Events of the last few days have shifted rapidly, underscoring the risks if the talks are derailed. 

Equities dropped from all-time highs on Trump’s comments about a ceasefire extension, pausing a five-day winning streak. Oil prices rose on Monday, with benchmarks up by more than 5% and Brent trading near $95 a barrel as of 2:10 p.m. in New York. Investors are closely watching how or when energy flows through the strait will meaningfully resume.

Last Friday, Trump posted on social media that a deal was all but agreed to and Iran announced it was reopening the strait. But shortly afterward, Tehran shuttered the waterway again when Trump declined to call off the US blockade. Over the weekend, the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. 

“I have it closed. I took their ship. I got five other ships I’ll take today if I have to,” Trump said in the phone interview.

Beyond the strait, arguably the most fraught issue is Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has demanded Iran forswear any ambitions for a nuclear weapon and hand over stockpiles of enriched uranium. Tehran has balked at giving up its uranium and has said its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. 

Trump and advisers see his varying comments about what might happen if the ceasefire deadline lapses as creating strategic ambiguity that the US could exploit in talks, said a White House official, who requested anonymity to describe internal thinking.

Yet that uncertainty has the potential to create misunderstandings with Iranian negotiators, who are simultaneously grappling with internal divisions among the country’s leaders. 

Conservative elements within the Iranian government and military leadership, including those at the top of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have taken the continuation of the US blockade as a further signal that Trump can’t be trusted, according to US and Iranian officials. 

The IRGC’s leader, Ahmad Vahidi, is among those in that camp and is pushing for a tough negotiating stance, people familiar with the dynamics said.

There is a divide between the likes of Vahidi and less ideological figures, such as Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who are more inclined to reach an accord with Washington, said the US and Iranian officials.

Despite the standoff, there’s still a good chance of a deal between the US and Iran in the next few days that effectively ends the war, even if more negotiations are needed over nuclear and military issues, the officials said.

Trump is facing pressure at home to end the war, with polls showing most Americans disapproving of the conflict. The president campaigned on keeping the US out of foreign entanglements and lowering consumer prices, two pledges strained by his decision to launch the war.

Trump has sought to assuage those worries, insisting that fuel prices will fall quickly once the war ends and that the US is not embroiled in a quagmire.

The conflict has already stretched beyond the four-to-six week timeline Trump initially set, and he has repeatedly suggested the conflict was nearing a conclusion. At the same time, he’s urged Americans to have patience, noting that other US wars dragged on for years.

“Vietnam lasted how many decades, right? Vietnam lasted years. Afghanistan lasted years. They all lasted years,” Trump said. “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal by treasonous senators and treasonous congresspeople.” 

(Updates with new market data, additional details and background throughout)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In July, the European Commission is due to propose changes that adjust the EU Emissions Trading System to a new goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels. Berlin wants targeted amendments to the cap-and-trade carbon program to strengthen the bloc’s competitiveness and safeguard its industrial base, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News. 

That includes a revision of benchmarks, which determine how many free allowances each industry receives and a slower pace of emissions cuts in the carbon program to prevent price spikes in the 2030s. At the same time, Germany is backing industry through a prolonged phaseout of free allowances, which allow certain sectors to emit CO2 without paying for the right to do so.

On the other hand, the EU must avoid policies that “misinterpret” the so-called ETS1 market as a short-term way to lower power prices, endangering its core task of stimulating investment in clean energy, according to Germany. Benchmark carbon contracts dropped to the lowest in almost a year last month on concerns that politicians will seek to weaken the market after the Iran war pushed up energy prices. 

“To ensure reliability and the achievement of our climate targets, ETS must continue to ensure that decarbonization frontrunners are not disadvantaged, provide planning certainty for market participants, and thereby incentivize innovation and long-term investment,” Germany said in the document. 

Started in 2005, the ETS1 program imposes shrinking pollution caps on power utilities, manufacturers in sectors from steel to chemicals as well as airlines and shipping. Carbon costs account for about 11% of electricity bills across the bloc on average, with countries reliant on fossil fuels facing a bigger burden. 

The EU carbon market has been criticized in recent months by energy-intensive sectors and some governments for adding to the burden of high energy prices on consumers and industry. In February, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU should be open to revising, or even postponing, the ETS — causing carbon prices to tumble. He later walked back those comments.

The commission already proposed addressing the carbon component of power prices through a fast-track fix to a special reserve in the ETS that removes excess emission permits from circulation and can release them at times of price shocks to stabilize the market. 

The plan is to make the so-called Market Stability Reserve more powerful by scrapping a provision that invalidates any allowances held in the reserve above a threshold of 400 million on Jan. 1 each year. That would give the EU more permits to intervene in the future. 

The proposal can be a “sensible step” but must also fit an overall concept of reforming the ETS, according to Germany, which also warned against weakening the reserve. As part of the overhaul in July, the reserve should be adjusted to strengthen the system flexibility and reduce price risks, Berlin said. 

In addition, the EU should improve protection of its producers under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which was introduced to prevent relocation of companies to regions with laxer climate rules. 

Germany also wants the integration of permanent negative emissions from technologies such as direct air capture to offset hard-to-abate pollution and consideration of imported carbon credits to ensure a safety net, according to the document. The latter could be used for the Market Stability Reserve, Germany suggested, echoing calls by some companies for the EU to allow international credits in the ETS to boost the firepower of the reserve in case of intervention.

“ETS1 will continue to function as an anchor in light of current economic and international challenges if we focus on its core function: achieving climate targets, and providing stability, reliability, and long-term planning certainty,” Germany said in the document. “Strengthening its reliability must be central.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent crude traded near $95 a barrel, recouping roughly half of its slump on Friday, when a reopening of the key waterway was announced, while European gas was up about 3%. Tehran closed the chokepoint again on Saturday, after it said a US blockade of Iran-linked ships violated a ceasefire agreement that ends Tuesday.

The tensions led Iran to hesitate on whether to send diplomats to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks, but Tehran was reportedly reviewing a US proposal. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said he saw a chance for a deal, with Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner scheduled to fly to Islamabad for talks on Tuesday.

“Markets are stll betting on a timely resolution, but each day raises shortage risk,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB in Oslo. “Physical oil flows remain constrained by disrupted flows, longer voyage times and elevated freight and insurance costs.” 

The standoff over Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February — threatens to deepen the global energy crisis and is just one of the unresolved issues, which also include Iran’s nuclear capabilities and Israel’s ongoing invasion of Lebanon.

Commercial traffic through the strait is at a virtual standstill on Monday, with just one oil products tanker seeking to exit the vital waterway and one oil tanker and a liquefied petroleum gas vessel traveling the other way. 

The conflict has triggered an unprecedented supply shock, intensifying inflationary pressures and weighing on worldwide economic growth. The cumulative global impact of the war will begin to emerge this week, with business surveys from multiple countries potentially flagging risks of stagflation.

“The market’s still carrying a risk premium into the deadline, but just not fully committing to it,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago. “If things just continue as they are, you probably see a gradual push higher to around $105–$115, but with a lot of back and forth on headlines.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, will announce Wednesday that it will propose these measures as early as next month, according to a draft document seen by Bloomberg. Around 40% of the bloc’s jet fuel is imported and half of that comes through Hormuz. 

While Europe is expected to have enough jet fuel to avoid shortages in April, pressure on supplies is set to intensify the longer the key waterway stays closed, Bloomberg reported last month. Dutch flag carrier KLM NV said last week it would scrap 80 return flights to and from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport in the coming month due to rising costs.

The commission will also issue guidance next month outlining flexibilities in existing legislation, concerning areas such as airport slots and the consequences of flight cancellations in the event of fuel shortages. It will also address so-called fuel tankering — where aircraft load extra fuel at the point of departure to avoid buying pricier fuel at their destination.

If that doesn’t suffice, the commission will propose temporary changes to the rules, according to the draft, which is still subject to change. It will also undertake a review of oil stocks across the region, create an observatory to map the supply of relevant fuels and take measures to maximize refinery capacity and boost domestic production of advanced biofuels.

The commission does not comment on draft documents.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials have offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, casting uncertainty over future peace talks, with a ceasefire set to expire in the coming days. Over the weekend, the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, the first seizure in the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The commission’s plan is also aimed at making the EU more resistant to future price spikes and includes a big push to electrify the economy to weaken the bloc’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Falling costs and soaring energy demand from data centers had already set the stage for rapid growth. The war in the Middle East has helped accelerate the trend by lifting demand for alternatives to expensive fossil fuels, setting 2026 up to be the year batteries become influential in the global energy system. BloombergNEF analysts had already expected installations to jump by about a third this year, led by expansion in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. That momentum could build further if fuel disruptions persist.

Signs of the ramp up are already emerging. A Chinese battery manufacturer has forecast a sharp rise in first quarter profit as global demand picks up. In Vietnam, a developer is seeking approval to replace a planned LNG-to-power project with renewables paired with storage, citing the surge in fuel costs linked to the war.

“We’ve now crossed into a point where anytime anyone is looking at investing in the power system, batteries are one of the most attractive options,” said Brent Wanner, head of the power sector unit at the International Energy Agency. “Battery storage systems will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.”

In markets flooded with solar and wind — technologies that have been built out significantly since the last energy crisis in 2022 — battery operators can buy electricity when it’s cheap and sell it when demand peaks. Where grids once relied on coal and gas when renewable output dipped, storage technology is now becoming cheap and fast enough to make a difference in how the grid functions. Average costs have dropped by around 75% from 2018 to 2025, according to BNEF, and are expected to tumble another 25% through 2035.

Battery projects are also increasingly being built in fleets big enough to make a real difference in how the grid operates. In Inner Mongolia, three massive sites were recently switched on with a combined capacity of 7.4 gigawatt-hours, enough to rival several large power plants for short periods. In Scotland, two huge neighboring battery farms at the site of a former coal mine will start up this year.

Australia — the world’s largest battery market on a per capita basis — offers a glimpse of how the boom is reshaping energy systems. Shortly after a massive project known as the Waratah Super Battery was partially switched on in New South Wales last year, batteries discharged more power onto the main grid during the evening peak than gas-fired plants. The site is expected to become fully operational in 2026. Storage is also helping delay an expected gas crunch as domestic fields deplete, underscoring its role in the nation’s energy security.

For investors, one big reason that projects have become more appealing is the rapid decline in costs. Waratah, for instance, would cost about 20% less to build now than when it began construction four years ago, according to Nick Carter, chief executive officer of Waratah’s owner Akaysha Energy Pty Ltd. “If you had the same project today, the economics would be materially better,” he said, even as Waratah’s strong returns have left him with “no regrets.”

Battery glut

At the center of the world’s energy storage boom is China’s role in producing the hardware. Years of investment in its electric vehicle supply chain have created a glut of batteries, driving prices down and flooding global markets with cheaper equipment. Exports of lithium-ion batteries climbed in March amid rising global demand for alternative energy sources as oil and gas supplies are roiled by the Iran war.

The country now accounts for the vast majority of global manufacturing capacity, as well as around half of existing grid-scale battery installations. That’s in part because of a 2021 mandate requiring renewable projects to include energy storage, which has since been retired. 

The pattern mirrors the solar industry’s post-2021 cycle, when surging demand triggered a wave of investment that led to oversupply, collapsing prices and, ultimately, mass adoption, according to consultancy Trivium China. What’s striking is that the decline in battery prices is happening even as costs for most other clean energy technologies have risen.

That means the calculus for projects is changing quickly. In mid-2024, Australia’s AGL Energy Ltd. began construction of a large battery in New South Wales. Six months later, it approved another project in the same state at roughly half the cost per megawatt-hour, according to CEO Damien Nicks.

Soaring demand

With power systems under strain across much of the world, the wave of cheaper batteries is coming at a pivotal moment.

In the US, the speed of construction is an important factor. Data centers from Texas to Tennessee are turning to solar paired with batteries because traditional power plants can’t be built quickly enough, as turbine shortages and grid bottlenecks slow timelines. Near Memphis, Tennessee, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence business xAI has installed rows of Tesla Inc. Megapack batteries at its Colossus supercomputing facility to manage outages and surging electricity needs.

Batteries are expected to account for more than a quarter of the record generating capacity the US is set to add in 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration.

“A lot of people still view the battery story as a clean energy technology,” said Jeff Monday, chief growth officer at storage provider Fluence Energy Inc. “We’ve seen an evolution — battery tech is now seen as building grid resilience.”

The dynamic is also spawning a new class of technologies outside of lithium-ion, which are designed to stretch storage from hours to days. Companies like Form Energy Inc. are pitching batteries that can keep data centers running through prolonged shortages, effectively substituting for supply from the grid. Unlike lithium-ion cells, Form’s technology relies on the rusting of iron to store and release energy for up to 100 hours, 25 times longer than most grid-connected batteries. 

In Europe, the challenge is different. A rapid expansion of wind and solar is straining grids that were not designed for huge variations in supply, increasing price swings and forcing operators to turn off when generation outpaces demand. Germany alone is expected to lose €3.7 billion ($4.4 billion) to curtailed renewable output this year. Storage is now set to surge across the continent, with capacity forecast to grow around fivefold by the end of the decade, according to a report earlier this year by think tank Aurora Energy Research.

Energy price swings unleashed by the Iran war increase arbitrage revenues and strengthen the case for cutting reliance on imported fossil fuels, according to BNEF. In Europe, it sees batteries that are already online or nearing completion as likely to benefit most, with capacity seen rising from about 50 gigawatts in 2025 to 75 gigawatts by year-end.

“In the face of rising gas prices with the war in Iran and general market fluctuations, storage can serve as a hedge for the power price volatility that is becoming more frequent,” said Allison Feeney, an energy storage analyst at research firm Wood Mackenzie. “It's going to revolutionize the way our grid operates, once we reach high penetration levels.”

The technology is also gaining momentum elsewhere. India has supercharged its auctions for energy storage projects as it races to balance a grid receiving more variable renewable power. Brazil is preparing its first tender for grid-scale batteries. In Egypt, Africa’s largest hybrid solar and battery installation was partially switched on earlier this year and is expected to become fully operational this summer. The takeoff, however, is not without constraints.

Much of the industry still depends on China’s supply chain, creating vulnerabilities as geopolitical tensions rise and US trade tariffs enter into force. While the US now has the production capacity to supply 100% of its energy-storage systems domestically, according to a March report by the US Energy Storage Coalition, Chinese equipment is still cheaper than American-made components.

Deploying batteries at scale also requires navigating the same bottlenecks facing the broader power sector. Grid connection delays, permitting hurdles and evolving market rules can slow projects, even as demand surges.

“For installers in Europe, the hardware is only maybe 50% of the cost, but then there are also the grid connection and installation costs,” said Eva Zimmermann, a senior research associate at Aurora. Higher interest rates as a result of war-related price disruptions could also complicate the economics of capital-intensive projects.

Yet even with those constraints, few expect the battery boom will slow. In the US, demand for storage outweighs policy headwinds, driven by rising electricity needs, the growth of data centers and the need to stabilize renewable power.

Developers are continuing to push into new markets, from Europe to Texas, betting that the same forces reshaping Australia will play out elsewhere. Akaysha’s Carter, who cut his teeth in the energy and automotive industries before making the jump to renewables, sees the current momentum extending well beyond this decade.

“Power demand is going up, data centers are coming online, more renewables are getting built, coal is exiting,” he said. “So when you combine all those things, the need for storage is going up.”

(Updates with China export data in the ninth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Electricity demand grew around 2.3 times faster than total energy demand in 2025, according to the IEA’s Global Energy Review released Monday. Demand from EVs and data centers grew at 38% and 17% respectively, but industry, household appliances and commercial buildings remained the main growth drivers.

“In advanced economies, electricity demand expanded by a robust 1.6% year-over-year, with particularly strong growth in the United States,” it said. “Data centers accounted for around 50% of total electricity demand growth in the US, with additional growth coming from the residential, industry and transport sectors.”

In China too, electricity demand growth was strong, but greater efficiencies and slightly lower cooling demand kept it below 2024 levels, the report said. Overall, global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3%, slightly behind the previous decade’s average.

Solar was the largest contributor to growth in global energy supply for the first time in 2025, according to the IEA.

“Solar PV accounted for over a quarter of all of the world’s energy demand growth – more than any other source,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in the report. Natural gas took the second-largest share at 17%.

Global oil demand rose by 0.7%, aligned with IEA projections, reflecting the continued growth of electric vehicles, which trimmed demand for road fuels. 

Coal use in China fell with the addition of greener energy, while demand for the dirty fuel increased in the US as high natural gas prices drove gas-to-coal switching in electricity generation. Still, the rate of coal demand growth slowed in 2025.

Battery storage was the fastest-growing power sector technology in 2025, with roughly 110 gigawatts of new capacity added. More than 12 gigawatts of nuclear power reactors began construction last year.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Singapore GasCo Pte, a state-owned entity that was established last year, is making the purchases as “some LNG shipments from the Middle East have been affected by the ongoing conflict,” the Energy Market Authority said in an emailed response to Bloomberg.  

No shipments of the super-chilled fuel have been exported from the Persian Gulf since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February. Before the conflict, about a fifth of global LNG went through the Strait of Hormuz, while damage to parts of the world’s largest export plant in Qatar last month threatens to curb some production for years.

When the war in the Middle East began, Singapore’s gas imports from Qatar made up less than 10% of its electricity needs, EMA said. Singapore uses the fossil fuel as its main source for power generation, and gets about 60% of its imports in the form of seaborne LNG shipments.

“As part of measures to strengthen our energy resilience, we require every power generation company to maintain diesel reserves as backup fuel,” EMA said. “Our power plants are designed to operate on both natural gas and diesel.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The most notable growth came in shipments of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, with an annual increase of 34% and 53%, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Saturday. Solar cells also saw 80% growth last month. All three exports rose from February levels as well. 

The data give the first comprehensive picture of China’s clean tech exports since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran seven weeks ago, effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz and sparking a global energy crisis. The disruptions caused by the conflict have heightened the issue of energy security for countries reliant on fuel imports and sent consumers and industries hunting for alternatives.

“This is just the beginning, the knock-on effects of high energy prices will be unfolding for months to come,” said Euan Graham, senior analyst at UK-based think tank Ember. “Clean technologies are an escape from soaring fuel costs for consumers and a long term route for countries to reduce fossil fuel reliance. China is well positioned to meet this growing demand.” 

Even after Iran said late Friday Asia time it had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, it could still take months for shipping to resume normal levels, assuming a peace deal is reached. 

China, which already dominates global supply chains for solar and wind power, batteries, and EVs, now faces another opportunity to further its reach. Years of capacity-building, often at the expense of profitability, have enabled Chinese manufacturers to scale up distribution in overseas markets quickly and competitively, making green products a new growth driver for the country’s exports. 

In particular, shipments of EVs and hybrids jumped to a record 349,000 units in March, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Dealerships across Asian capitals have reported an influx of customers pivoting to EVs as they try to avoid fuel prices that have soared since the start of the  war.

“Chinese automakers can quickly increase their global reach during the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said during a briefing last week.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., the world’s largest maker of EV batteries, said in an earnings call on Wednesday that in the short term the increased uncertainty over crude oil supplies and prices will drive customers to increase their use of electrified products. 

Domestic policy changes also influenced clean tech exports in the first quarter. Solar and batteries, for instance, saw export tax rebates either removed or lowered starting in April, which analysts said could lead companies to rush product out the door before the subsidies disappeared.

(Corrects chart legend.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

When she took office at the beginning of April, O’Neill became the FTSE 100’s company fourth CEO in six years after Bob Dudley’s retirement in 2020. Dudley’s successor Bernard Looney left under a cloud. His expensive renewable energy forays often saw bp outbid competitors on ventures with uncertain margins and little prospect of near-term returns.

Looney’s exit three years later saw the company’s finance boss Murray Auchincloss elevated to the CEO’s office. Auchincloss assured the market that bp “can and will do better" and do “fewer things with higher returns” as the company started to pull away from renewables and refocus on traditional energy.

Bernard Looney’s exit in 2023 saw bp's finance boss Murray Auchincloss elevated to the CEO’s office. Auchincloss assured the market that bp “can and will do better" and do “fewer things with higher returns” as the company started to pull away from renewables and refocus on traditional energy. However, with pace of progress deemed slow by many, came Auchincloss’ departure in December 2025.

However, with pace of progress deemed slow by many, came Auchincloss’ departure in December 2025 and O’Neill’s arrival, as bp’s first female CEO, with a huge array of tasks to deal with. 

The new CEO’s growing in-tray

The incoming CEO has taken over a company whose investors have seen its share price chronically underperform. Especially so, when compared to its peer group stocks, and to the point of having to fight off takeover rumours and an activist investor last year.

But she’s accepted a challenge from Chairman Albert Manifold to make bp “a simpler, leaner and more profitable company” and focus on its core oil and gas business.

Operating fortune is on O’Neill’s side in achieving that mission, for now. The Middle East conflict, disruptions in the key maritime artery of the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing market volatility have resulted in an oil price spike in a year many were forecasting a glut and low prices.  

Additionally, relative to its ‘Big Oil’ peers, bp happens to be one of the supermajors that is least exposed to the Middle East crisis. It has reported very limited cargo volume hold ups through the Strait of Hormuz.

The company’s longstanding global trading arm, which regularly returns a profit, is also well placed to benefit from elevated oil prices with Brent having risen to as high as $120 per barrel at one point. The physical market disconnect has also recently seen spot markets – currently starved of Middle Eastern oil – demand as much as a $20 premium on the futures prices in high demand Asian energy hubs.

Sitting on major reserves 

The windfall will certainly help but the task ahead remains a huge one, especially on the investment and restructuring front. For starters, bp’s published proven reserves to cover around seven years of output. That’s the shortest of any global supermajor – a status that was questioned last year amid rumours of a takeover by Shell, subsequently denied by both companies.

But bp’s reasonably diversified upstream pipeline has great potential. In particular, the company’s Bumerangue discovery in Brazil’s offshore Santos basin, announced last year. The discovery potentially includes about 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, that O’Neill, bp and its investors would be counting on. 

As oil and gas investments ramp up under the new CEO, divestment and strategic review of what the company now deems as non-core assets – largely renewables ventures – and its Castrol business will likely continue. But another challenge for O’Neill would be restructuring bp into Manifold’s “simpler and learner” version.

Restructuring into upstream and downstream

Its organisational structure has too many layers, plenty of overheads and units often offering questionable returns. bp currently has three main business units: gas and low carbon; oil production and operations; and customers and products. Looney was expected to change things but instead made it puffier upon assuming the CEO’s chair during the Covid pandemic years.

In an ideal scenario, O’Neill’s shift would likely entail a core upstream and downstream model, one that would be with complemented by bp’s profitable trading arm and perhaps a tighter, nimble and unexpansive low-to-zero carbon ventures outfit.

In an ideal scenario, O’Neill’s shift would likely entail a core upstream and downstream model, one that would be with complemented by bp’s profitable trading arm and perhaps a tighter, nimble and unexpansive low-to-zero carbon ventures outfit. Both Financial Times and Reuters confirmed that bp is planning to pursue this model of reorganising its business into ‌two main units – upstream and downstream – although there’s no set ​timeline yet for the new structure.

Such a reorganisation is easier said than done, but if anyone can it’s O’Neill.

Clues from Woodside Energy days

There should be no prizes for guessing why bp headhunted O’Neill. Some clues on how she may go about meeting such a challenge and realise ideas of her own may be found in her management of Woodside Energy.

Having spent over two decades at ExxonMobil, O’Neill was appointed CEO of Woodside Energy in 2021. By the time her departure for bp was announced December 2025, she’d grown Woodside into the largest energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. Much of it was predicated on O’Neill’s ability to balance aggressive growth with fiscal discipline.

Whilst keeping a firm hand on finances, she oversaw Woodside’s growth from an Australia-focused hydrocarbon producer to a geographically diverse business with a commanding presence in the liquefied natural gas market, and a 2022 merger with BHP Petroleum.

Everyone from the equity to energy markets took notice, and her bp appointment has now followed. All eyes now would be on bp’s first quarterly results announcement under on O’Neill’s stewardship 28 April. The supermajor craves an industry captain who’ll bring stability, reset strategy and invest and divest wisely. O’Neill more than fits the description but would perhaps be the first to admit she has her work cut out.

Gas prices “have likely peaked” and are certain to decline once there’s a “resolution” to the US-Israeli war with Iran, Wright said on CNN’s .

Asked when prices might drop to less than $3, Wright said, “I don’t know — that could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year.” Republicans are already expected to have a tough election season, and elevated gas prices won’t help the GOP maintain control of the House and Senate.

Bessent said last week he sees the price of gasoline abating over the US summer driving season, telling reporters at the White House he’s “optimistic that sometime between June 20 and Sept. 20, that we can have $3 gas again.” 

The national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was averaging $4.10 last week, according to the American Automobile Association. That’s up from an average of less than $3 a gallon before the war with Iran began on Feb. 28.

An April 9-13 Quinnipiac University poll suggested that 65% of voters blame Trump for rising gas prices and 57% disapprove of his handling of the economy.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

No crossings were seen on Sunday, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg as of early afternoon in London. At least 13 oil tankers turned back toward the Gulf on Saturday, abandoning attempts to leave that began after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a day earlier that the strait was open.

But Tehran again shut the waterway following a refusal by the US to lift its own naval blockade of Iran’s vessels. It followed a period of chaos when some ships tried to race out after Araghchi’s comments, only for many to U-turn. It’s keeping millions of barrels of oil and large quantities of liquefied natural gas locked within the Gulf, threatening to prolong an energy crunch that’s roiled the global economy.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations said Saturday a tanker was approached by IRGC gunboats off the coast of Oman before being fired at. A container ship was then hit by an unknown projectile in a separate incident while another commercial vessel reported a splash close to it, the UKMTO said later.

The incidents came soon after Iran said it would allow ships to pass through Hormuz for the duration of a ceasefire between Israel and Tehran’s Lebanon-based ally, Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump repeated that the strait was open, but said that a US Navy blockade of Tehran’s vessels would remain. Iran said that was unacceptable and Hormuz was once again closed.

In the short period before Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, four tankers, including one hauling 2 million barrels of Saudi and Qatari crude, made it through early Saturday. A total of 18 commercial ships managed to complete outbound transits in the period. Ten ships made the inbound crossing, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

Nearly half of the ships that did get out had links to Iran and eight of them are sanctioned by the US. None of those sanctioned vessels seem to have successfully broken the US blockade further out in the open sea in the Gulf of Oman. Three anchored off Khor Fakkan in the UAE and two made it as far as the Omani coast, although one then appeared to head back toward Hormuz 12 hours later.

Two more are heading east along the Iranian coast, but have yet to reach Chabahar, close to the border with Pakistan, where ships previously taking the same route have come to a halt. It did briefly look as though one ship, the LPG tanker Raine, would run the blockade, but it turned back toward Hormuz shortly after crossing a line from the Iran/Pakistan border to the easternmost point of Oman, suggesting.

Separately, four cruise ships made a dash to get out of the Gulf on Saturday, steaming at speed while hugging the Omani coastline and separated by just 45 minutes as they rounded the tip of the Musandam Peninsula. A fifth had made the outbound trip on Friday. All were reported to be empty and all are linked to European cruise operators. These ships are not included in the charts.

The blockades may encourage ships to switch off their tracking signals to avoid detection, making it harder to get an accurate picture of what’s going through. This means transit figures will sometimes be revised higher, when vessels pop up far way from the riskiest waters.

Inbound transits on Saturday included three LPG tankers ships, four bulk carriers and two container ships, both sanctioned by the US for their links to Iran.

One cargo ship heading into the Gulf on Sunday morning has been halted off the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas at the apex of the strait, tracking data show.

NOTES: 

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“I believe a Basra–Ceyhan pipeline could be extremely attractive and a very important project for both Iraq and Turkey, as well as for regional supply security—especially from Europe’s perspective,” Birol said in an interview with Hürriyet, published on Sunday. “I also believe the financing issue can be overcome. Now is exactly the right time.”

Iran on Saturday reimposed restrictions on vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, less than 24 hours after Tehran declared the waterway open to commercial ships. Several liquefied natural gas tankers reversed course while en route there after Iran warned ship captains that the vital channel was once again closed to maritime traffic.

Iraq relies on Hormuz to export oil from the Gulf port of Basra, which holds one of the world’s largest reserves at around 90 billion barrels and accounts for about 90% of the country’s oil exports, Birol told the newspaper.

“The vase has been broken once, and it’s very difficult to fix,” Birol said, referring to the Strait of Hormuz. A new oil pipeline “is a necessity for Iraq and an opportunity for Turkey. It is also a major opportunity for Europe in terms of supply security. I think this should be considered a strategic project.”

For such a project, Turkey and Iraq need to reach a political agreement, “which I believe is achievable,” he said, adding that securing financing for the project could also receive support from Europe. 

Turkey has already proposed extending a Turkish-Iraqi pipeline between Ceyhan and the Kirkuk oil fields in the north to the south as part of efforts to build a multi-billion dollar trade route that would stretch from the Faw Port in Iraq’s southern province of Basra to Turkey in the north. Separately, Turkey, Syria and Jordan recently agreed to modernize their railway and highway systems with the aim of eventually creating a contiguous corridor between southern Europe and the Persian Gulf.

Turkey has emerged as a more viable option after the Israel–Hamas war stalled progress on the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, a US-backed project to build rail links across the Arabian Peninsula. With Houthi attacks disrupting Red Sea shipping and regional instability rising, the IMEC is effectively on hold.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A total of 12 commercial ships completed successful outbound transits on Saturday morning London time, before it became clear that Iran was halting transits again. At least half of those that did get out had links to Iran. During the same period, inbound movement was restricted to just three carriers, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

The oil-ship transits that did take place were led by that of the supertanker FPMC C Lord, hauling 2 million barrels of crude from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A handful of smaller fuel tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers also managed to rush through around the same time.  

However, multiple ships, including at least nine tankers, reversed course and abandoned outbound transits. They were joined by at least four container-ships operated by France’s CMA CGM SA which also turned back. The company declined to comment. 

The chaos happened just hours after both Washington and Tehran suggested the waterway was fully reopened. However, the Trump administration clarified that its own blockade of Iranian shipping remained in place, with Tehran then warning that the strait would be closed again.

At least four small passenger ships were also spotted departing the Gulf on Saturday, hugging tight to Oman’s shoreline.

The commercial vessels entering Hormuz with active AIS signals during the past day were confined to a narrow northern lane near the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm. 

The FPMC C Lord was accompanied by a crude-laden Aframax and four additional fuel tankers, including one with Iranian links. Four liquefied petroleum gas carriers were also observed: one Vietnamese vessel and three Iranian ones. An Iranian bulker and a containership rounded out the outbound commercial traffic seen on Saturday morning.

The blockades may encourage ships to switch off their tracking signals to avoid detection, making it harder to get an accurate picture of what’s going through. This means transit figures will sometimes be revised higher, when vessels pop up far way from the riskiest waters.

Inbound transits included a bulk carrier and two LPG ships.

NOTES: 

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company said it has created a interim office of the CEO, which will include Chief Operating Officer Jacobo Orti and Anna Bofa, an observer to Fermi’s board, while it conducts a search for Neugebauer’s replacement, according to a filing posted after the close of regular trading. 

Fermi, whose founders also include former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, has sought to capitalize on the booming demand for power to supply data centers running artificial intelligence. However, its share price has fallen nearly 70% since it went public in September. The company is aiming to build a giant private power complex with nuclear reactors in the Texas Panhandle that would supply AI computing facilities. 

Fermi said it will release additional details on the executive changes on Monday. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.