The Hormuz action casts a new cloud over the talks, which are aimed at permanently ending a conflict that’s thrown the Middle East into disarray. The immediate impact on vessel traffic was unclear, but even before the recent ceasefire, millions of barrels of oil had been quietly escaping the waterway each day.

Iran’s joint military command said the closure is Iran’s first step in response to Israel’s continued attacks in southern Lebanon, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Saturday.

Negotiations on a peace deal were meant to start on Friday, but were delayed after fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon intensified. But the negotiating session appears to be back on track, with Pakistan announcing that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Asim Munir are headed to Burgenstock, Switzerland, for talks beginning Sunday.

Vice President JD Vance, who had originally planned to be in Switzerland on Friday, said US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were already there laying the groundwork for technical talks, and that he hoped to travel there in “the next couple of days.”

“I am very confident we can maintain the ceasefire,” he said in an interview with Fox News. “We’re going to give this negotiation a chance.”

The Iranian delegation heading to Switzerland includes Parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, according to the state-run IRIB News.

Oil Watch

Hopes were running high that normal traffic would resume through the strait, a conduit for about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas before the war, after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, to end dual blockades. But the announcement about a new closure suggests the optimism may have been premature.  

Ships have been crossing Hormuz using two routes in recent weeks: one by the coast of Iran and another to the south of the waterway by the Omani coast. Iran said in guidance to shipping this week that no ship would cross the waterway without its permission. The middle section between those two routes is believed to have been mined during the war.

On Saturday, US Central Command said commercial ship traffic increased in the strait, with 55 merchant ships transiting cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil.

“Iran announced the closure of the Strait, but it is not clear yet if that is more than rhetoric,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Meanwhile, they are sending negotiators to Switzerland. That suggests they do not want to lose the benefits they are promised in this MOU.”

Trump also insisted Saturday that Iran could not charge any tolls in Hormuz, even after the 60-day ceasefire period ends. He suggested in a social media post that only the US would be able to charge “for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East.” 

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, an Iranian lawmaker and member of parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, said the Hormuz closure by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was a reaction to the one-sided implementation of the initial ceasefire deal.

“It’s only natural that we utilize our leverage,” he said on state TV. “This move marks our first serious operational step, which we hope proves effective. The other side must not act in a manner that compels the IRGC to deploy alternative levers of pressure.”

Still, even before the US-Iran ceasefire, oil tankers were using the Omani route by transiting at night with their satellite signals turned off. In recent days, vessels appeared to transit Hormuz using both routes, including earlier on Saturday.

Iran’s declaration on Saturday will likely make more risk-averse shipowners with vessels that have been trapped inside Hormuz for months more wary of exiting. Earlier in the day western naval forces had said vessels using the corridor could cross at any time and with their satellite signals either on or off.

“I expect this to happen again and again over the next couple of days and weeks,” said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group. “Iran is using its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to try and force a ceasefire in Lebanon.”

Kelly added that there have been other instances of Iran saying Hormuz is shut since the US-Iran ceasefire was agreed “but they didn’t really enforce it.” Some shipowners had reported hearing radio broadcasts from Iran that Hormuz was closed earlier in the week.

Oil rose slightly on Friday, with Brent up about 0.9% to $80 per barrel, paring losses for the week to about 7.7%. The price remains roughly 30% higher for the year because it will take months for flows to return to normal, and could jump again when markets reopen next week unless the deadlock over Lebanon is resolved. 

While Israel and Hezbollah separately said they had agreed to a truce on Friday, violence has persisted. 

The Lebanese army said in a post on X on Saturday that Israel had attacked the south of the country and the Bekaa valley, causing fatalities, injuries and extensive destruction of property. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said five people were killed around the southern town of Nabatieh.

Hezbollah said on Telegram that its forces confronted Israeli troops who tried to advance in Nabatieh overnight and entered an ambush. It said it had abided by the ceasefire since Friday evening, but won’t tolerate “any attempts by the enemy to seize land and expand its occupation.”

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces said it had struck Hezbollah targets, including weapon storage facilities, rocket launch positions and command centers, after the group fired more than 50 projectiles at its forces in southern Lebanon overnight. While the IDF is committed to the truce, it will “continue to operate to remove any threat” posed to Israel and its soldiers, it said in a statement. 

A delay in reaching a deal with Iran would be a blow to Trump, who has faced criticism that he was conceding too much in terms of financial benefits and relief from sanctions. He had said the agreement would prevent a global economic crisis, given the critical Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen. 

Iran has been “completely defeated militarily,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday. “Iran got away with ‘murder’ for 47 years, until I came along. Then it all changed.”

On Friday, he said the two sides still have time to reach an agreement.

“Otherwise, we will do things that won’t make them happy, but I don’t think it’s going to get to that,” he said in remarks at Joint Base Andrews, where he was unveiling the new Qatar-gifted jet that will serve as Air Force One.

The war in the Middle East erupted when the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The Islamic Republic struck back, firing missiles and drones at Israel and nations across the Gulf, and thousands of people were killed. 

Strains between the US and Israel over Lebanon are growing. Trump has sworn at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in calls, accusing him of almost scuppering the memorandum with Iran by escalating strikes. Israel insists it will keep troops across its borders until it’s sure Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the US, is no longer a threat.

A poll aired on Israel’s top-rated Channel 12 TV showed 67% of Israelis see the US-Iran deal as bad for their country, 9% see it as good and the remainder are undecided.

The US and Israel say they attacked Iran to stop it from building an atomic weapon. Tehran has long denied wanting to do that, but has enriched uranium to far beyond the levels needed for nuclear power plants. 

(Updates with Pakistan announcement in fourth paragraph. An earlier version corrected the description of oil price moves.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Fiscal issues have been especially sensitive for Burnham. Last year, he appeared to slight the bond markets, saying the UK had to move beyond being “in hock” to them. Concerned this meant bigger budget deficits and more debt, they’ve returned the favor by driving up benchmark bond yields as he’s edged closer to a challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Burnham has said his comments were misunderstood. A person familiar with his thinking said the incoming MP for Makerfield is aware of the fragility of the bond markets. He has recently moved to reassure investors, committing to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ self-imposed constraints on spending and borrowing. 

Those require the government to cover day-to-day spending with tax receipts and for debt to be falling as a share of the economy. The Member of Parliament-elect also pledged not to make any exception for defense spending, just weeks after floating the idea in a Bloomberg interview.

But, while Burnham has committed to Reeves’ current framework, several of the economists, MPs and policy wonks he’s assembled around him have argued that the rules are too short-termist and prone to choking off investment that might improve growth.

Burnham is taking advice from former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane, ex-Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jim O’Neill, former Institute for Public Policy Research Executive Director Carys Roberts, and Richard Hughes, who chaired the Office for Budget Responsibility until December, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

These people are “all extremely credible,” said Rupert Harrison, a senior adviser at PIMCO who served as an aide to the Conservative Party’s George Osborne when he was chancellor. Still, Haldane and O’Neill “have been calling for looser fiscal rules for some time,” he posted on X. “Don’t think this fiscal rules debate is settled.”

O’Neill has previously called the UK’s fiscal constraints “petty and arbitrary,” and told Sky News on Saturday the government should be “bolder” about borrowing to invest. 

Haldane has said the case for changing them is “overwhelming,” arguing that they should allow for more government investment in order to drive growth. Hughes, meanwhile, told lawmakers in January that Reeves’ fiscal rules do little to bring borrowing under control and mean “that righting the fiscal ship after a shock happens much more slowly.”

Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who has led Burnham’s campaign, has also been a vocal critic of Britain’s fiscal framework. Writing this week, she said it pushes governments to “make short term decisions to hit some arbitrary target in the future,” creating a “misleading sense of precision.”

Haigh argued that the Treasury’s debt target should be stretched from current three- and five-year rolling windows to a longer horizon of about 10 years. That would potentially create more room for investment without formally abandoning the rubric.

“A longer horizon would therefore improve, rather than undermine, the credibility of the framework by aligning it more closely with the real dynamics of growth and public finances,” she wrote.

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has made a similar critique of the rules’ incentives. In February, it said the fiscal debate had become “fixated” on “arbitrary” targets that politicians of all parties could fiddle. “This does not make for good policymaking, it does not ensure sustainable public finances, and it stretches credulity and credibility with financial markets,” the think tank said.

Still, its report also issued a warning that a Burnham administration would have to take seriously: a change should be considered “only from a position of strength and credibility.”

While Reeves largely has the confidence of gilt investors who see Burnham as an unknown quantity, she herself changed the rules at her first budget in October 2024, redefining the debt measure to increase room for investment. The change allowed as much as £70 billion ($93 billion) of additional borrowing over five years.

And that was only the latest rewrite. The UK’s fiscal rules, first introduced by Tony Blair’s Labour government in 1997, are being altered with increasing regularity. The Institute for Government says Britain is now on its 10th version.

The market reaction to any change in fiscal rules could depend as much on timing and presentation as substance – plus the person Burnham appoints as chancellor. His allies say he has no plans to reappoint Reeves. Some in Labour expect him to choose someone from the party’s soft left, such as his ally the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, though others see Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as another possibility.

The markets will focus on “any prospect of tweaks to the fiscal rules as well as who a new chancellor may be,” said Peter Goves, Head of Developed Market Debt Sovereign Research of MFS Investment Management.

The issue could reach a head over the potential nationalization of Thames Water. The government this week rejected a rescue deal put forward by the company’s creditors, and Yuan Yang, an MP in Burnham’s circle, has been a prominent critic of the privatized utility. Burnham has also made taking greater control over essential public services a key part of his agenda.

That could test the fiscal rules, raising questions over whether Thames Water’s large debt pile would be absorbed onto the public balance sheet.

“We are in the middle of an energy shock and after 2022, any whiff of fiscal laxity gets punished by the gilt market before a chancellor can act on it,” said Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho Bank, referring to the so-called mini-budget in September of that year, during Liz Truss’s disastrous seven-week premiership. “So in the first few weeks and months, we don’t expect too many hints of a change.”

“But as we get closer to the budget,” Rochester said, “we’d expect them to test the water.”

(Updates with bond-market context in 2nd paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Basra Oil Co. requested lifting output to the maximum available capacity at the Rumaila, West Qurna-1, West Qurna-2, Zubair and Artawi fields, according to a document dated June 19 seen by Bloomberg. The return to higher production will be gradual, and will depend on operational conditions and buyers arranging tankers for loading, Oil Ministry spokesman Salim Al-Rikabi told Bloomberg. 

The boss of Iraq’s state oil-marketing company SOMO, Ali Nizar, said separately in an interview with Iraq 24 television that two ships are currently loading at the country’s southern terminal but that more would need to enter Hormuz for output to keep rising.

OPEC’s second-largest producer saw its oil exports plummet after the US-Iran war caused marine traffic through the trait to come to an almost complete halt. Iraq is dependent on the waterway for the bulk its crude exports and has only limited capacity to ship oil through pipelines over land that some of its neighbors used at the height of the crisis. 

Still, production in the country’s petroleum heartland in the south, where the five fields are located, has already climbed to 1.5 million barrels a day in recent days, a senior executive said this week.

Companies that have been requested to start lifting output from the fields have already begun work to increase production, Al-Rikabi said. The focus currently is on fields that pump associated gas with that would support local demand for power generation and cooking fuel.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Iran postponed negotiations that were meant to begin in Switzerland on Friday because of the ongoing fighting, according to two people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. 

Although Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire after heavy clashes on Friday, according to a US official, who also asked to remain anonymous because the agreement isn’t public, reports of violence persisted. 

The Lebanese army said in a post on X on Saturday that Israel had attacked the south of the country and the Bekaa valley, causing fatalities, injuries and extensive destruction of property. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said five people were killed around the southern town of Nabatieh.

The Israel Defense Forces said it had struck Hezbollah targets after the group launched more than 50 projectiles at its forces in southern Lebanon overnight, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with the military’s policy. 

Iran insisted that an interim peace deal finalized with the US this week include an end to Israeli military action in Lebanon, and didn’t send a delegation to Switzerland due to the fresh hostilities. While US Vice President JD Vance also didn’t travel, Axios reported US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff was going.

“The Lebanon front is unlikely to collapse the US-Iran agreement at this stage,” said Bilal Bassiouni, head of risk forecasting at advisory firm Pangea-Risk. “Iran is delaying the Switzerland talks to force the US to restrain Israel, since accepting continued strikes in Lebanon would weaken Iran’s leverage.”

There’s as yet no indication of a new start date for the talks, although Switzerland’s foreign ministry said preparatory work at the host resort of Bürgenstock is continuing and a White House spokesperson said an American delegation is prepared to depart at the first available opportunity.

The postponement is a blow to US President Donald Trump, who signed a memorandum of understanding with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian despite criticism he was conceding too much in terms of financial benefits and relief from sanctions. He said the agreement would prevent a global economic crisis, given the critical Strait of Hormuz would reopen to oil and gas shipments. 

Iran has been “completely defeated militarily,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday. “Iran got away with ‘murder’ for 47 years, until I came along. Then it all changed.”

On Friday, he said the two sides still have time to make a deal.

“Otherwise, we will do things that won’t make them happy, but I don’t think it’s going to get to that,” he said in remarks at Joint Base Andrews, where he was unveiling the new Qatar-gifted jet that will serve as Air Force One.

The US is working with Qatar on a plan to give Iran access to the spending power of some of its estimated $100 billion in cash that’s been locked up by sanctions, beginning with $6 billion held in Qatar, an early financial incentive to end the war, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Under that deal, which isn’t yet completed, Qatar would allow food and other humanitarian goods ordered by Iran’s central bank to be bought with money drawn from frozen Iranian assets, the newspaper said.

It’s not yet clear how the latest developments in Lebanon will affect the Hormuz strait. Traffic through the key waterway appeared to thin early Friday, a day after it surged following an agreement between the two countries to lift a dual blockade.

On Friday, Iran said ships will need its permission to cross the strait, setting the stage for a likely contentious debate over future tolling arrangements. The US, Europe and Gulf Arab states have balked at the idea of Tehran imposing fees.

Oil rose slightly on Friday, with Brent up about 0.9% to $80 per barrel. Prices dropped about 7.7% this week, with traders anticipating the reopening of Hormuz strait will ease the biggest energy-supply crunch in history, but remain roughly 30% higher for the year because it will take months for flows to return to normal. 

The war in the Middle East erupted when the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The Islamic Republic struck back, firing missiles and drones at Israel and nations across the Gulf, and thousands of people were killed. 

While the US and Iran agreed a temporary truce in early April, conflict in Lebanon has continued. The Israeli military said four of its soldiers, including a battalion commander, were killed on Friday. Israel’s attacks killed 18 people the same day, Lebanon’s National News Agency said, while the Israeli military said it targeted 80 Hezbollah sites. 

The Lebanese health ministry put the Friday death toll at 47, and President Joseph Aoun said the latest Israeli escalation is undermining the ceasefire efforts.

Strains between the US and Israel over Lebanon are growing. Trump has sworn at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in calls, accusing him of almost scuppering the memorandum with Iran by escalating strikes. Israel insists it will keep troops across its borders until it’s sure Hezbollah, designated a terrorist organization by the US, is no longer a threat.

“Lebanon is not an enemy of Israel,” Ella Waweya, a spokesperson for Israel’s military, said in a post on X. “The problem is Hezbollah, which drags Lebanon into destruction time and time again, depriving the Lebanese people of stability, security, and prosperity.”

A poll aired on Israel’s top-rated Channel 12 TV showed 67% of Israelis see the US-Iran deal as bad for their country, 9% see it as good and the remainder are undecided.

The US-Iran memorandum led to Washington lifting a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran saying it will reopen the Hormuz strait. They have agreed to extend their ceasefire during the new round of talks, which are meant to finish within 60 days but can be extended.

The US and Israel say they attacked Iran to stop it from building an atomic weapon. Tehran has long denied wanting to do that, but has enriched uranium to far beyond the levels needed for nuclear power plants. 

The sides will try to agree on restricting Iran’s processing of the fuel, possibly for a decade or more, and destroying or diluting its existing stocks of highly enriched uranium. Many atomic experts say 60 days is insufficient to work out a permanent deal with Iran, given the complex and technical nature of the topic. 

(Updates with analyst comment in seventh paragraph, report on plan to give Iran access to funds in 13th.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent futures traded above $80 a barrel in London as Iran delayed the start of negotiations over a permanent peace deal with the US amid an uptick in fighting in southern Lebanon. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz thinned on Friday, a day after a surge in renewed oil flowed as the two countries vowed to lift a dual blockade.

An oil supertanker named the Desh Vibhor is once again in the process of heading toward the strait from within the Persian Gulf after briefly turning around, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.

Oil has dropped 7.7% this week after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the strait. The waterway where about a fifth of the world’s oil passes was shut for almost four months due to war that began Feb. 28. Optimism over the accord was tempered Thursday when US Vice President JD Vance paused a trip to Switzerland for further talks aimed at a wider settlement with the Islamic Republic.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces said they had continued strikes on Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. A cessation of hostilities there was among Iran’s conditions for the interim deal. Israel and Hezbollah have now agreed to a ceasefire as of 4 p.m. local time, according to a US official, who asked to remain anonymous because the agreement isn’t public.

“There is going to be some stops and starts in this whole negotiation process,” Susan Bell, senior vice president of downstream research at Rystad Energy in Calgary, said by phone. “There is going to be posturing on both sides over the next 60 days.”

Tehran said that to cross Hormuz will require mandatory insurance policies, which are currently free but could be charged for down the line, as laid out in a document asserting its control over the waterway. Western naval groups have in recent days told ships they recommend taking a path via Oman’s coast, but said that other routes were available.

“While the deal is not necessarily dead on arrival, there appear to be real risks to its staying power,” Helima Croft, head of commodity markets strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note. “Maritime logistical constraints, congressional opposition, and ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon” pose key threats to the normalization of oil flows, she added.

In a sign of producers adjusting to the shifting situation, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. told customers to resume loadings of its crude oil from ports within the Persian Gulf, according to a notice sent by the company that was seen by Bloomberg. Adnoc declined to comment.

Kuwait has started boosting oil output and plans to exceed 2 million barrels a day within a week, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Chief Executive Officer Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said in an interview.

Supertankers laden with almost 80 million barrels of oil are sitting in the Persian Gulf and ready to cross the Strait of Hormuz at a moment’s notice if traders and shipowners give the go-ahead. Yet resuming tanker traffic could unleash a wave of supply that refiners in Asia may not immediately need, having already secured barrels to cover their short-term needs.

The process of fully reopening Hormuz may still prove to be a tricky and drawn-out operation. To run smoothly, the process needs to be choreographed, with ships in the right place, wells restarted, infrastructure repaired and steps agreed to de-mine the waterway. Some shipowners remain cautious about conditions in the strait and the Persian Gulf.

“Everyone would like to get the ships out, but the mood is that you don’t necessarily need to be the first,” said Jan Rindbo, chief executive officer of shipping company D/S Norden A/S. “With traffic resuming that will build confidence. But it’s still fragile, it will not take a lot for that confidence to disappear again.”

Trading was light on Friday due to the US Juneteenth holiday. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The reality of four years of war pushed deeper into everyday life on Thursday when a swarm of nearly 200 drones hit Moscow’s oil refinery. Residents were stunned by images of thick black smoke rising over the city’s south, the shutdown of major roads and airports, and reports of black rain falling in some districts.

As the immediate shock faded, many Muscovites turned their attention to a more practical concern: Will the region have enough fuel and how much will it cost?

Some drivers in several Moscow districts and near the capital were already reporting gasoline prices rising to more than 90 rubles ($1.23) per liter on Thursday, compared with about 70 rubles before the attack. Some Muscovites said they encountered shortages and long lines at the pump. Residents in Moscow’s outer suburbs also reported that some filling stations had stopped selling gasoline in jerry cans.

Some level of gasoline shortage in the Moscow region is unavoidable, according to Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin and a former Russian oil executive. There may be a short-lived decline in gasoline sales to 80% to 90% of normal levels, with the duration depending on the speed of repairs, he said.

“The authorities will do everything they can to bring fuel in from other regions,” Vakulenko said. “However rail capacity is not unlimited, and nearby refineries have also been damaged.”

Kyiv has significantly stepped up attacks on oil infrastructure in recent months, with the Moscow refinery alone hit twice this week. Russia’s crude-processing rates have fallen to their lowest level in two decades so far in June, according to estimates by EA Analytics, part of industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. 

Before Thursday’s attacks, the cost of fuel was already rising in Russia. Average retail gasoline prices increased 1% week-on-week to 69.11 rubles a liter in the June 9-15 period, according to data published by the Federal Statistics Service late Wednesday. That was the biggest jump since early January, weekly data show. 

Authorities across Russia have sought to reassure motorists that the situation is under control.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting on the domestic fuel market on Friday and stressed that reliable and timely supplies, as well as continuous monitoring and control of prices, remain the main focus, according to a government statement. After gasoline prices rose at some Moscow-area filling stations, the country’s antitrust service requested pricing and sales figures from two fuel retailers.

According to data compiled by a service that tracks retail gasoline sales, prices at major refueling chains including Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, Lukoil and Tatneft remained near the regional averages seen before the Thursday attacks.

Traffic restrictions imposed in southeastern Moscow after the drone strikes have gradually been lifted, according to the city’s administration.

Russia’s biggest airline, Aeroflot, canceled about 170 flights on Thursday, while more than 500 flights in total were canceled or delayed at Moscow airports. Airports experienced further disruption on Friday, as Moscow’s mayor said that the capital’s air defenses repelled more than 70 drones.

Moscow authorities said air quality in the capital remained within normal limits even after the refinery fire, which burned for much of the day. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the blaze had been mostly contained by about 3 p.m. local time on Thursday, while firefighters continued working to extinguish remaining hot-spots. He has not provided any updates since then on whether the fire has been fully extinguished.

Following Thursday’s strike on the Moscow refinery, a complex crude-processing unit and four tank reservoirs were damaged, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a Telegram statement on Friday.

Authorities and federal media largely played down the incident, with reports about the Moscow refinery fire receiving only brief coverage on major television channels.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov brushed aside questions about the drone attack on Moscow, urging reporters to focus instead on what he described as the “impressive” results of Russian strikes on Ukraine. Peskov also said President Vladimir Putin receives daily reports on developments across the country, indicating he had been informed about the attack.

The disruption to fuel supplies and transportation show how, more than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war’s impact is increasingly visible in everyday life, with no let-up in sight. 

“This is the new reality, and it’s an unpleasant one,” said Elena, a 47-year-old owner of a small restaurant in Moscow. “But I have a business here, nowhere else to go, and I can’t stop the war.”

(Updates with number of drones repelled below second chart)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The heat wave is being fueled by a dome of high pressure over continental Europe, which raises temperatures as sinking air compresses toward the ground. The pattern is being reinforced by the developing strong El Niño and a cold pool of water in the North Atlantic, which is helping create a dip in the jet stream over the ocean and driving the high pressure over Europe, said William Henneberg, a meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group.

“This is very unusual,” he said, adding that the pattern is likely linger and lead to above-normal temperatures through early July.

The heat dome spans most of the region but its epicenter is over France, where the mercury soared above 40C (104F) on Thursday. Even higher temperatures are forecast in the coming days, with 42C possible in western France, and Paris poised to hit a June record on Monday, according to Vaisala.

The searing heat, which is likely to continue through much of next week, is disrupting daily life in France, with schools canceling end-of-year festivities and dismissing schools early, and a thunderstorm delaying 60 flights late Thursday at the capital’s Charles de Gaulle airport, Agence France-Presse reported. The condition of the French wheat crop is deteriorating, while power output from the country’s nuclear reactors is set to be curbed next week.

The heat is straining Europe’s energy grid, as households and businesses are expected to run air conditioners hard enough to push cooling demand to all-time highs, according to analysis from Vaisala and Commodity Weather Group. 

At the same time, Electricite de France has warned that reactors drawing cooling water from the Rhône and Garonne may have to curb generation as river temperatures rise. That recurring summer constraint — designed to keep plants from discharging water that is too hot — may come as early as Tuesday, EDF said.

Government forecaster Météo-France raised the number of departments on amber alert for extreme heat to 58 for Friday and said red warnings are possible if conditions worsen as expected on Sunday.

French transport company SNCF has canceled more than 70 train services due to concern about air-conditioning failures, and end-of-year oral examinations for the national baccalaureate have been postponed for 4,500 students at 84 schools in western France, ICI reported. 

The weather pattern is set to drive up temperatures in Spain, Germany and in the UK, which is likely to see heat wave conditions start on Sunday in southern England, according to the UK Met Office.

The heat and absence of rain are drying vegetation and raising the risk of drought in the UK and for wildfire conditions in France and Spain, forecasters said. Those conditions are likely to worsen, with weather models and analysis from Vaisala showing unusually warm temperatures lingering until July.

Many departments across the country have imposed water restrictions of varying degrees, including bans on watering, according to government water-use platform VigiEau. Three months after drought conditions ended in the UK, the threat of prolonged dryness is rising fast in southern England, which received about 50% of its typical spring rainfall, the UK government’s National Drought Group said Friday.

Authorities have warned about the mounting health effects of heat during the day and at night. Many parts of Europe are set to see evening temperatures stay above 20C — so-called “tropical nights” — that can increase fatigue and heat illness, especially among children, older adults and people with medical conditions.

Red heat alerts have been issued in Germany and Switzerland, with amber alerts in effect across southern England, parts of Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Italy and Spain. Yellow alerts cover much of mainland Europe.

(Updates with new forecast details and weather impact)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The unprecedented nature of the closure left many people working blind and without a timetable. 

In the United Arab Emirates, one official says the country spent the early days of the conflict working out how to stagger oil-well shutdowns to ensure production would be best-placed to rebound. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have managed to keep enough pressure in their fields to potentially return to prewar production rates within two weeks, officials say. Saudi supertankers have passed up millions of dollars in earnings since April waiting on standby to pick up the kingdom’s crude at a moment’s notice should the Strait reopen.

Within hours of the interim peace deal being signed by the US and Iran on Wednesday, three Saudi supertankers emerged outside the strait, among the first in a swelling flow of traffic, though the volume of visible traffic slowed on Friday.

Other players are more circumspect and want further reassurances on a demining program and the order that ships will be allowed out of the gulf. But the deal signed by US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian should be the signal for oil wells and refineries dotted across the region to crank into gear — a restart so big that it should be visible from space, where thousands of megawatts of heat signatures will be picked up as fields burn off gas.

“We should be able to restore normal operations across this entire market within the next six months, provided that we truly return to a period when the strait is open,” Patrick Pouyanne, chairman and chief executive officer of TotalEnergies SE, told the French parliament on Wednesday. “Everyone will be watching to see what’s actually happening on the ground.”

Critical for the Gulf states, the restart of production and barrels flowing out of Hormuz also offers the prospect of lower energy prices and an easing of the inflation fears of central bankers across the world. For Trump it has the added attraction of lowering fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections and giving the US an opportunity to restore inventories that have hit bare-minimum levels.

To run smoothly, the reopening needs to be properly choreographed with ships in the right place, wells restarted, infrastructure repaired and agreement on a demining operation. It could easily be derailed if not enough owners are willing to enter Hormuz soon enough to carry the barrels, or if Iran begins imposing tolls as the interim deal implies it could or if Trump’s peace plan falters and hostilities resume.

At times during the last four months, Gulf oil exports were down almost 15 million barrels a day — a 60% drop from where they were in February. And benchmark crude prices topped $126 a barrel, a price that didn’t go higher in recent months only because of record releases from emergency oil reserves and plunging demand which helped ease global supply shortages. Iranian attacks have caused about $42 billion of damage to major facilities from refineries to pipelines, consultant Rystad Energy estimates. Imposition of a US blockade designed to curb Iranian oil revenues further halted traffic. Some refining units could take months to fully return, say senior oil executives.

And all the time more than 100 oil-laden tankers with hundreds of crew members onboard have been stuck inside the Persian Gulf, analysts at shipbroker E.A. Gibson estimate.

Saudi and Emirati officials are also bullish about how quickly they can restore crude flows. Restarting the refineries that process oil into consumable fuels will likely be a longer-term process, requiring bespoke equipment and complex engineering. Collectively, the six largest refining plants in the region had about 1.4 million barrels a day of processing capacity offline, according to IIR Energy, which analyzes such data, a volume that is more than a fifth of the amount of refined fuel exported through Hormuz before the war.

Not all producers have had the same success in keeping their fields running optimally while the conflict raged. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were able to divert some oil supplies through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea and Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman to bypass Hormuz. 

Even within the same country the picture is confused. One official warns that restoring Iraq’s fields to previous levels will be a slow process because the prolonged shutdown has left wells clogged with substances like paraffin. At the same time, Iraq’s output is already showing signs of an increase, with a top official at the southern Basra Oil Co. saying this week that production had risen by about 500,000 barrels a day from earlier in the war.

A spokesperson for Iraq’s oil ministry said that the pace of output restarts will vary from field to field. They added that the ministry is prioritizing fields that produce associated gas, or where such gas can be utilized.

“Restoring supply on this scale is wholly unprecedented,” said Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at consultant Wood Mackenzie, which estimates that 70% of prewar production can be returned within three months and 90% within six months. “There will be pleasant surprises for producers but also setbacks.” 

In fact, the reopening of Hormuz has already been quietly underway for weeks. Each day, a handful of oil tankers, starting with a trickle but more recently carrying as many as five million barrels a day — somewhere between a quarter and a third of the normal prewar traffic — were hugging the coast of Oman and escaping the 21-mile wide waterway. 

That flow should now turn into a gush if the Middle East’s oil industry restarts in earnest. The heavy lift will see Saudi oilfield engineers, Indian tanker captains and others working around the clock to try and return the oil market to something more closely resembling normality. 

“You don’t need to be back at 100% of prewar flows right away,” says Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodity trader Trafigura Group, “but you need to be back to at least 50% fairly quickly.” 

Where Are All The Ships?

Almost as soon as Trump announced on Sunday that a deal would be struck this week, Gulf producers were inundated with calls from clients seeking clarity and further details about how real any resumption in shipments might be. 

On Thursday many were still seeking that same reassurance. The world's main oil tanker trade group Intertanko, called for urgent clarity on what steps would be needed to get ships through Hormuz safely, with owners needing to be reassured that there are no mines present before risking a crossing. 

It’s still not clear what a demining operation in Hormuz would look like or who would do it, but security officials say it would be an operation that’s likely to take weeks rather than days.

“Everyone would like to get the ships out, but the mood is that you don’t necessarily need to be the first one,’’ says Jan Rindbo, chief executive officer of D/S Norden A/S. “Obviously with traffic resuming that will build confidence. But it’s still fragile, it will not take a lot for that confidence to disappear again.”

For those willing to take the risk, there could be a handsome financial reward. Shipowners think there’ll be hundreds of thousands of dollars a day to earn by getting their ships in the right place at the right time. On Wednesday at least six supertankers, capable of hauling 12 million barrels of crude, conducted screeching turns in the middle of the Indian Ocean and began sailing toward the Persian Gulf on the prospect of reopening. Some Greek owners and an enigmatic South Korean shipowner, Ga-Hyun Chung, who recently became the world’s largest operator of supertankers, have also been sending vessels close to the Gulf of Oman.

Their wager is that there’ll be a surge of cargoes and not enough ships in place to carry them. Clarksons Securities estimated this week that the equivalent of about 140 supertankers would be needed to restore flows from the Persian Gulf. There are about 120 empty supertankers, east of the Malacca Strait that could in theory get to Hormuz within a week, though some will also need to sail to other destinations around the world.

One Chinese oil company was looking for a ship to carry an Iraqi cargo of crude this week and several shipbrokers said tanker owners were quoting a rate above $600,000 a day — at least 10 times the price of last year. Oil companies are balking at those numbers.

For those who have been stuck onboard tankers in the strait it’s a different calculation. Abhjit Chopra, the captain of a tanker with 22 crew, has spent 110 days stranded and now just wants to go home to his family in India. He heard about the deal via mobile phone messages that woke him on Thursday morning, but says there was no celebration onboard or from the ships around them.

He paints a picture of mundane days over the last few months broken up by occasional missiles flying overhead and says he and the crew are now just waiting for instructions.

“There has definitely been a sense of strain and uncertainty over this 100-plus days where we do not have clarity of what is about to happen,” says Chopra. “The vessels are being careful. We are all waiting for instructions from our shore offices to carry out the next steps.”

The Asia Market

Reopening will present a further opportunity for commodity traders who thrive in times of major market shifts. Several of the industry’s biggest energy traders have so far this year seen their highest profits since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

As the restart plays out, barrels are set to flood toward Asian refiners — the biggest buyers of Middle Eastern crude. After months of shortages that have forced processing cuts and four-day weeks to ration energy supplies in some nations, buyers from Japan to Vietnam say they are already inundated with cargo offers. One of the first tankers to leave Hormuz on Thursday was loaded with liquefied natural gas destined for Pakistan, which has faced severe fuel shortages since the war began.

A series of workarounds — some unexpected such as a plunge in Chinese imports, others more deliberate initiatives including the release of emergency reserves, and a diversion of flows through pipes in the Middle East helped stave off higher prices. Until now, those levers have kept the market in balance, and the added supplies could push it back into a surplus. But countries and companies will also be looking to rebuild more than a billion barrels of inventories that have been lost since the conflict began.

“With China’s ability to swing demand so much and so quickly, the system is pretty secure against supply shocks,” said Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context. “This is obviously the ultimate supply-shock test, and the market so far seems to have passed.”

Several commodity traders said that once the oil market has worked its way through this most recent shock, they expect it to return to what had been expected prewar for 2026: a period where supply far outstrips demand. That means oil prices, which stood at around $79 on Thursday, are poised to tumble even further. 

China recently began tapping its commercial oil reserves, and there’s little sign of its imports picking up. Lower prices and more barrels flowing through Hormuz, traders say, could soon change that.

Focus will then quickly turn to lessons learned from the conflict. The UAE has already announced plans to build more pipelines to bypass Hormuz so that if conflict breaks out again it will be better insulated and able to export at least some of its oil. Traders and refiners in Asia say processors — which typically purchase oil via long-term contracts for Middle Eastern crudes — will be reassessing their huge reliance on the region. 

There are also expectations that the barrels that emerge will quickly flow into storage tanks depleted over the course of the war. The US strategic reserve is now at its lowest level since the 1980s, while Japan has released about 15% of the stock it holds since March. Some expect that refilling process to put a floor under oil prices into the end of the year at least, and keep demand for the tankers hauling barrels across the world supported.

“Everyone is going to look around and say we need to rebuild inventories,” says Trafigura’s Rahim, “crude producers and refiners will run as hard as they can.”

(Updates with latest traffic in fourth paragraph and Iraq oil ministry comments in fourteenth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The United Arab Emirates state-owned producer said oil from its ports at Das and Zirku islands, which are located inside the Gulf, has been available for loading since April 27. Failure to pick up the crude would constitute a breach of buyers’ lifting obligations, it added.

In light of the recent US-Iran deal and “the envisaged uninterrupted flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect that all cargoes will be lifted in accordance with the published loading programs,” it said in its notice to the company’s long-term buyers.

If buyers can’t secure their own tankers, Adnoc would be able to assist with its own or affiliated vessels. The company also cited its general terms and conditions for the sale of crude oil, which states that a buyer shall pay compensation to the seller in the event of a failure to take delivery.

Adnoc declined to comment.

The company had been among the most successful of Gulf producers to get supply out through the Strait of Hormuz, offering crude to buyers in a series of tenders. It has sold at least 30 million barrels so far, with more likely to transact this week. Other sellers like Kuwait have also been getting oil out of the gulf.

The United Arab Emirates recently left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, allowing the country to ramp up production as it’s no longer bound by cartel-wide limits. The nation is one of the few regional producers with large amounts of spare production capacity and has long chafed at OPEC’s curbs.

The UAE is working on plans to lessen its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. It will double its capacity to export crude bypassing the Hormuz by next year by accelerating the construction of a pipeline that runs to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company’s reactor — the Ward 250 — reached “criticality” on June 18, Valar said in a statement Thursday. That means it achieved a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction, allowing it to produce a steady release of energy. 

Valar is the second company to reach the milestone this month, following Antares Nuclear Inc. Both are participating in the Energy Department’s reactor pilot program, which was announced last year and set a goal of seeing three reactors achieve criticality by July 4.

“Nine months ago, this was an empty site. Today, there’s a critical reactor on it, built and operated by the Valar team,” Isaiah Taylor, chief executive officer of Valar, said in the statement. ”We met the milestone the executive order set.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a series of orders Thursday tailored to the country’s power grids in a bid to remove bottlenecks that had risked slowing the AI boom. The aim is to handle requests for power within 90 days, a dramatic acceleration of a process that currently can take years. 

The fast-tracking will come with tradeoffs for AI hyperscalers. Under the plans, they could be required to bring their own power or curtail demand during times of high stress on the system. They will also be on the hook for costs associated with needed grid upgrades so they can receive vast quantities of electricity, according to Laura Swett, chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

“This is the biggest priority our country is facing at the moment,” Swett said. “We are taking historic action to push our country’s electric markets and economy into the future.”

The six regional grid operators and their transmission owners must, within 60 days, either justify tariffs that do not clearly address large-load customers or submit proposed revisions, according to a FERC fact sheet.

The order comes amid pressure from the Trump Administration to ensure AI becomes the backbone of the American economy, and highlights the surging demand in power markets after two decades of stagnation. At the same time, the data center buildout and the inflationary impact it has had on consumer power bills have become hot-button election issues ahead of the mid-terms in November.

FERC’s moves follows a call last year from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright for expedited reviews for data-center grid connections and a broader framework for accelerating access to power supplies.

“We’re out of the wild west era of data center development,” said Robert Montejo, a partner at law firm Duane Morris LLP. “This order may be remembered less for its technical reforms and more for recognizing that large-load interconnection is now a core political, planning, and economic issue.”

The data center buildout presents both opportunity and risk: Technology companies could help finance grid upgrades, but their power needs are arriving faster than the system can adapt. Data centers can add the electricity demand of a small city within a few years, forcing grid operators to meet large new loads without increasing the risk of shortages or blackouts.

While various US grids have attempted to address concerns over ensuring data centers are connected with electricity generation and keeping costs in check, the rollout of such policies have been inconsistent. PJM Interconnection LLC, the largest US grid covering 13 states and 67 million customers, has come under particularly heavy criticism for being slow and seeing power bills surge.

That mismatch is something FERC is now trying to rectify, though it stopped short of a blanket rule for the whole country. Swett said it was now up to states to ensure costs are allocated evenly. Utilities will also be required to report costs tied to data centers to the federal agency to help ensure transparency, Swett said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington after the public meeting. 

New York Independent System Operator spokesman Kevin Lanahan said in an email that FERC’s new approach provides flexibility to grid operators to address their region-specific conditions.

(Updates with FERC chair comment from Bloomberg News interview in the penultimate paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe,” OPEC said. “In many cases, these shifts reflect the reversal, delay or cancellation of previously ambitious targets and commitments aimed at reducing oil demand.” 

Oil demand is projected to rise to 113.3 million barrels a day in 2030 and 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050, up from 105.1 million barrels in 2025, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its annual World Oil Outlook. 

The group’s bullish view on oil demand stands in contrast to other forecaster such as the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based organization just predicted that impact from the war waged by the US and Israel on Iran will be much deeper than previously anticipated, with world oil consumption expected to slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year. 

After the end of that conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this week, OPEC members such as Kuwait are putting plans into action to quickly return their production to prewar levels. 

The largest increments of oil demand growth in the coming decades will come from Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, according to the report. India is the top contributor, adding 8.1 million barrels a day over the outlook period. From a sectoral perspective, the biggest growth is expected in road transportation, petrochemicals and aviation.

OPEC does see a peak for its competitors. Production of US tight crude, commonly known as shale oil, reached its high point in 2025 at just over 9 million barrels a day, OPEC said. The group said its rivals will meet about half of the projected increase in demand in the coming years. 

“The scale of humanity’s energy needs requires sustained investment today across all energies and technologies,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. “For oil alone, investments of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 — or over $700 billion per annum – are needed to meet demand in the long term.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The heat wave is forecast to push temperatures 5C to 12C above normal in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and southern England, which could raise cooling demand to the highest level in records going back 45 years, according to analysis from Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross.

The unusual heat is driven by a dome of high pressure that raises temperatures as it compresses air toward the ground and clears away clouds. Daytime highs could reach above 40C (104F) by Sunday in Paris and other regions, according to forecaster Météo-France. 

The most intense heat is forecast for France, where authorities have issued amber weather alerts across 26 departments. That includes Paris and much of the central and eastern parts of the country, where grain fields are almost ready for harvest.

Météo-France warned that the heat wave coincides with the annual Fete de la Musique on June 21, when concerts and street parties are held across the country. Schools across Paris and other regions have announced that classes will be suspended in the afternoon on Thursday and Friday because of the heat wave, according to Agence France-Presse.

The unusually long-lasting heat wave threatens to curb nuclear output from plants cooled by the Rhône and Garonne rivers, including Saint-Alban, where Electricité de France SA is preparing to limit generation from Saturday. EDF warned that its Blayais and Golfech facilities may also be impacted from June 23 and June 25, respectively.

French nuclear output is closely watched by power markets since the country’s reactor fleet is the backbone of Europe’s electricity system. Restrictions can tighten supplies and lift prices across the region.

French power demand rose on Thursday to about 52.4 gigawatts, the highest level since April 14, according to data from RTE.

To reduce the risk of air-conditioning failures during the heat wave, French transport company SNCF has canceled more than 70 train services on Thursday and Friday, including 14 Paris–Limoges–Toulouse trains, according to France Info.

The heat wave is likely to further dry soils, which have already been depleted by low rainfall in June and a similar heat wave in late May, said Météo-France. Some areas are approaching record-low moisture levels for the season over the coming days. 

The combination of dry vegetation and hot weather with low humidity has raised wildfire risks in France and Spain. 

Heat wave conditions are also forecast for Germany and are likely to spread into southern England over the weekend, according to the UK Met Office. Temperatures could reach 33C in some areas, with 31C possible in London on Monday and Tuesday. Amber heat health alerts are in place for London and southern England. 

Amber heat warnings have also been issued for Switzerland, with a red alert for the northern region around the city of Basel. There are amber warnings in Italy and Spain, along with yellow alerts for Austria, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands.

(Updates nuclear generation restrictions in sixth paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Verse Enterprises Inc., a San Francisco-based startup, says its software can help data centers skip the line by managing off-grid batteries and solar. 

The company already makes software that analyzes energy pricing and demand so facilities can monitor their energy consumption. Now it’s partnering with battery developer Calibrant Energy to incorporate storage and solar generation into the equation, a setup it says can avoid overloading the grid during peak demand. 

It’s betting this will convince utilities to take on data centers’ extra load without making costly and time-consuming infrastructure upgrades.

“We're now at the point that clean energy is actually the economic and feasible solution because the speed of deployment is fast,” Verse’s co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Seyed Madaeni said. 

The company raised $54 million this spring in a Series B round that included chipmaking giant Nvidia Corp. as a backer. It’s part of an effort by AI companies to fund energy-efficiency startups that can help them cut their rapidly growing power use. Nvidia has also invested millions in Emerald AI, which makes a similar software. 

But installing these systems isn’t a guarantee that utility companies will hook up data centers right away, according to Allison Weis, global head of storage at Wood Mackenzie. Flexibility in power demand can reduce barriers to getting connected, but utilities haven’t defined any standards for data centers to meet to get online, or said that batteries or on-site power generation will help fulfill them.   

“There’s no uniform framework,” she said. 

Federal regulators are set to unveil guidance on how the US will expedite data center connections. At issue is whether hyperscalers will be responsible for providing their own power generation, commit to flexible energy consumption or foot the bill for grid upgrades.

Falling costs and rising electricity needs have led to a boom in battery deployment. The energy storage market is forecast to grow 21% this year as demand for batteries grows despite tariffs and restrictions on tax credits for batteries that rely heavily on Chinese components.

Verse said it’s using the raise to scale deployment of their technology to more than 100 sites by early next year.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

These types of projects rose about a third to 32.3 gigawatts in the week ending May 29, according to data compiled by Australia’s clean energy regulator. That takes the total large-scale renewables pipeline up to almost 70 gigawatts, or more than triple the capacity of the coal plants that have historically generated most of the nation’s power.

The increase comes after Australia’s government in May approved about 10 gigawatts of wind and solar projects, as well as battery facilities, as part of public tenders. 

Australia has become a bellwether for the energy transition, as it seeks to replace its rapidly aging fleet of coal power stations and meet a goal of renewables achieving 82% of total generation by 2030. That compares with 46.5% in the main grid in the first quarter, a record for the period despite unprecedented demand, according to the market operator. 

Still, there is no guarantee that these proposed solar and wind facilities will ultimately come to fruition, while the gap between probable developments and accredited or committed projects continues to widen. Among the biggest hurdles facing new projects are transmission infrastructure delays and lengthy planning and permitting processes.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent sank toward $78 a barrel after a modest gain on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $75. President Donald Trump said he had signed the deal, which envisions a rapid reopening of the critical waterway.

US oil sanctions must now be lifted immediately, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. “Iran must be able to sell its oil, shipping and insurance must not face any issues, and the revenues from oil sales must also be received,” he said on state television. 

Crude has shed almost all of the gains seen during the conflict, which erupted in February when the US and Israel attacked Iran to curb its nuclear program. Tehran responded by blocking the waterway, which used to carry about a fifth of global oil supply in peacetime. The US also subsequently blockaded the conduit in a bid to ramp up the pressure against Tehran.

“The easy part was reaching an agreement — the harder part is determining how much of the disruption from the past few months becomes permanent,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer of Karobaar Capital LP.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Gulf exports are now expected to “normalize” by the end of next month, compared with the end of August previously. Still, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels, the bank’s analysts said in a note, highlighting producers tapping alternative routes.

“Markets tend to assume a reopening means a reset,” said Khurshid. “While really some of the changes made during the disruption may stick around longer than people expect.”

Ahead of the deal’s signing — which ushers in a 60-day period of additional talks on unresolved issues —  the oil and shipping industry remained largely in wait-and-see mode, although a handful of vessels began rerouting toward the Middle East, while Iranian tankers laden with oil moved out.

Shipbrokers and owners reported some tentative inquiries about hiring vessels to collect oil from ports across the region, although it’s not clear whether any new deals have been struck. Iraq, the region’s second-largest producer before the war, said it was taking steps to increase exports.

While oil prices have eased, pressure on inventories remains acute. Stockpiles at Cushing, the largest US commercial storage hub, have sunk to about 20 million barrels. That’s a level traders consider an operational minimum.

At the same time, petroleum products have followed crude’s path lower. Average nationwide gasoline prices in the US have dropped back to $4.025 a gallon, compared with a high of $4.564 last month, according to daily figures from the American Automobile Association.

On Wednesday, President Trump signaled that the risk of a major economic crisis had played a key role in his decision to call off the war. Military escalation “could have caused an international depression,” he said.

The US leader “really does want, going into the midterms, lower gasoline prices,” said Carolyn Kissane, associate dean at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University, referring to the elections in November. “He’s willing to accept a deal kind of at all costs.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

On the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, President Donald Trump signed the deal, one of the provisions of which is a rapid reopening of the critical waterway through which around 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits. Nearly 600 ships and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in Gulf waters as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Middle East conflict started, according to the International Chamber of Shipping.

Under article 5 of the US-Iran agreement, upon the signing the MoU, “the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only,” from the Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.

“The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz,” according to the statement, in discussion with other Gulf states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Alternative routes still in play

Once formal approval is given to reopen, stranded ships could theoretically begin to move through the strait almost immediately. However, analysts said the focus will now be on implementation of the agreement as well as the mechanism governing the passage of ships through the Strait.

The oil and shipping industry remained largely in wait-and-see mode, although a handful of vessels began rerouting toward the Middle East, while Iranian tankers laden with oil moved out.

According to the BBC, three Saudi Arabia-flagged supertankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Data from MarineTraffic suggests they made the crossing with their position transmitters off before switching them back on after crossing into the Gulf of Oman.

A gradual shift to pre-war exports

Goldman Sachs said Gulf exports are now expected to “normalise” by the end of next month, compared with the end of August previously. Still, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels, the bank’s analysts said in a note, highlighting producers tapping alternative routes.

According to Bloomberg, shipbrokers and owners have reported tentative inquiries about hiring vessels to collect oil from ports across the region. Iraq, the region’s second-largest producer before the war, said it was taking steps to increase exports.

While oil prices have eased, pressure on inventories remains acute. Stockpiles at Cushing, the largest US commercial storage hub, have sunk to about 20 million barrels, the lowest level in years. On Thursday, oil fell as the interim US-Iran peace deal went into effect. Brent sank toward $78 a barrel after a modest gain on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $75. 

The project, commissioned by Buoyant Production Technologies (BPT), a subsidiary of Crondall Energy, centres on a Normally Unattended Installation (NUI) buoy in the North Sea that can generate its own power, manage subsea control systems and operate without permanent personnel or a connection to a host platform. 

The demonstrator, which entered service in late 2025, has completed more than 1,000 hours of autonomous operations and achieved technology qualification within 10 months of contract award. 

Targeting complex operations

Offshore operators are now targeting smaller, more remote, and deeper water reservoirs, meaning that traditional tie-back developments often rely on long umbilicals or manned platforms to provide power and communications from a host platform. These solutions can be costly and carbon intensive, while putting workers at risk. 

The NUI buoy can address these challenges by replacing the long-distance architecture with a compact floating facility. This facility can generate power locally from a combination of sources like solar, wind, battery storage, and diesel backup generation.

Bilfinger was tasked with designing architecture capable of supporting fully autonomous operations in harsh offshore environments. To achieve this, the company deployed Schneider Electric’s EcoStruxture Automation Expert platform, which is an industrial automation system. 

Enhancing interoperability

Traditional automation systems are often linked to proprietary software, meaning it can be difficult to separate hardware and software. However, EcoStruxture can de-link applications from hardware, allowing operators to integrate technologies from multiple vendors. 

“Traditional automation architectures make customisation very difficult, especially for first-of-its-kind projects,” said Steven Parkinson, Automation, Production and Service Director at Bilfinger UK, adding that “This approach simplified integration between renewable power generation, remote operation and autonomous control, while overcoming the long lead times, high capital costs and limited flexibility associated with traditional infrastructure.”

The buoy’s control and power system incorporates Schneider Electric’s Modicon M580 controller, a separate renewable energy microgrid controller, and AVEVA software for visualisation, data management, and analytics. Communications are maintained through 5G and Starlink connectivity, while safety systems include fire, gas, and smoke detection alongside a layered cybersecurity framework.

Accelerating digital transformation solutions

According to Bilfinger, the platform can integrate subsea equipment while maintaining reliable control and power supply for critical assets such as valves, compressors, and pumps.

The project also reflects a broader industry trend towards digitalisation and low carbon solutions. By generating power locally, the technology could aid in lowering emissions in offshore operations. 

“This project proves a new operating model for offshore assets and supports our mission to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries,” said Devan Pillay, President of Heavy Industries at Schneider Electric.

“Our close collaboration with Bilfinger and the adoption of open, software-defined automation were critical to a successful and timely delivery,” Pillay said, adding, “The real opportunity now lies in replicating and scaling this approach across future assets to enable a lower-carbon offshore industry.”

The two companies believe the technology could be adapted for various environments and be deployed globally. 

The Chicago-based developer acquired a roughly 5,000 acre geothermal parcel in New Mexico this week via a Bureau of Land Management lease sale. That brings its total federal geothermal footprint to 45 parcels covering approximately 144,000 acres across five states. 

While the Trump administration has doubled down on its attack on renewables, blocking existing offshore-wind projects and slashing incentives for solar and wind, geothermal has emerged unscathed with tax credits intact. There’s been a rise in interest about the energy source amid the AI data center boom as it offers around-the-clock, clean power by tapping the Earth’s heat to generate power. 

Invenergy will redirect the capital from the canceled offshore wind leases into natural gas and geothermal projects, according to the Interior Department.

BLM’s New Mexico sale alone drew bids on 47 parcels totaling roughly 152,000 acres for $16.6 million in receipts, one of several state-level auctions this year as the agency leans into geothermal under the administration’s energy agenda. Other winning bidders include a subsidiary of Ormat Technologies Inc., as well as Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals Inc.

Invenergy has been a regular bidder across these sales and is also an advisory participant in the Mountain West Geothermal consortium. The company’s existing geothermal lease portfolio extends across western US states like Nevada, Idaho, California and Utah,  where geothermal resources are most accessible.

(Updates with other winning bidders of New Mexico lease sale)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Inpex has been notified that all strike action will cease by 6 p.m. Wednesday, the Offshore Alliance, which represents the Australian Workers’ Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, said in a statement.

More than 400 union members endorsed the settlement at 6 a.m. this morning, the Offshore Alliance said in a social media post. One LNG train was shut at the Ichthys plant on Tuesday, according to the post.

Cargo loading has resumed at the Ichthys facility, Inpex Senior Vice President Corporate Bill Townsend said in an email confirming that agreement has been reached. 

The strikes threatened to exacerbate global LNG market tightness after the war in the Middle East choked supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Workers have engaged in industrial action since early June, downing tools for several hours a day, among other measures.

“Members have won an agreement that delivers significant gains in job security, pay, career progression, workplace rights and working arrangements,” the Offshore Alliance said in its statement.

A formal vote by union members is expected to take place soon, although the terms of the deal haven’t been confirmed by Inpex, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 made a sharp turn on Monday, ship-tracking data show, changing its next port of call to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates port from Gabon. Very large crude carrier Coslucky Lake, originally bound for South Africa, changed direction the same day, and is also signaling Fujairah. 

The diversions came hours after US and Iran reached an interim agreement on a peace deal, pledging in a draft memorandum to end their blockades and reopen the strait. The deal is set to be signed on Friday. The crucial waterway, responsible for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has been effectively closed since late February when the US and Israel first struck Iran.

While many shipowners are still in a wait-and-see mode, some with higher risk appetites are gearing up to lock in voyages to enter or exit the strait. First movers stand to benefit from higher rates due to a risk premium still attached to the trade. 

The number of empty supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, rose to about 60 this week, shipbrokers say, up from about three dozen earlier this month. The availability of empty tankers able to quickly enter the Gulf to pick up new cargoes will be crucial to the resumption of oil flows to global customers. 

There’s already been a flurry of activity by Iran-linked vessels this week, with a number of ships shifting position as the country prepares to sign the deal that could allow Tehran to start selling its oil. Four vessels switched on their transponders and appeared to be sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, according to ship-tracking data. 

Separately, other ships stuck in the Gulf are moving closer to Hormuz. Over the past day, at least two bulk carriers, a liquefied-natural-gas tanker and a container ship were observed sailing eastward within the gulf. They appear to be headed toward a cluster of vessels idling off Dubai, an anchorage area where shipowners can stock up on supplies and secure insurance cover before making the transit.

Qatar, meanwhile, is bringing some of its liquefied natural gas tankers back to the Middle East, as the major supplier prepares to ramp-up exports once Hormuz reopens. At least four empty LNG vessels owned by Qatar recently began heading back toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction, according to ship-tracking data.

Malta-flagged Kapodistrias 21 is owned by HN5051 Ltd., according to maritime database Equasis, which shares the same contact details as its Athens-based manager, Ensel SA. Hong Kong-flagged Coslucky Lake is managed by units of Chinese state-backed owner Cosco, its website shows. The companies didn’t immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.

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At least four empty LNG vessels owned by Qatar recently began heading back toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction, according to ship-tracking data. Another ship chartered by Qatar is also on its way to the region, the data shows. The tankers are all signaling Ras Laffan — the world’s largest LNG export plant in Qatar — as their next destination.

Four other Qatar-linked tankers are idling in the Gulf of Oman, the data shows, and could try to pass through Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. So far, Qatar has not brought an empty vessel into the gulf since the war began in February.

While the Qatari ships’ return to the region represents only a small share of the country’s roughly 70-tanker fleet, the move is another sign the producer is preparing to ramp up output should Hormuz reopen. Qatar is aiming to restore most of its export capacity within two months, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, and getting vessels to pick up the fuel will be a key part of the restart push.

The move comes as the US and Iran are expected to cement the deal to reopen the waterway as part of efforts to end their war. The interim pact, which is due to be signed on Friday, requires Tehran to ensure the movement of merchant ships through Hormuz, and for the US to lift its own blockade.

The return of LNG from Qatar stands to help ease a global supply crunch. Despite the tentative US-Iran peace agreement, prices for the fuel in Europe and Asia remain higher than pre-war levels. Qatar has been able to export a handful of shipments to buyers in Asia by masking the location of tankers, but those deliveries are still far lower than normal.

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The deal is part of Syria's broader initiatives to attract foreign capital and expertise to support and repair its energy infrastructure.

According to Yousef Qiblawy, President and CEO of the Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), the deal is a significant step forward for Syria's gas industry and shows that foreign partners are becoming more optimistic about investment prospects in the nation.

“We look forward to increasing production, improving operational efficiency and strengthening the energy system in a way that supports the national economy and helps meet the needs of citizens,” Qiblawy told SANA, Syria’s state news agency.

Syria's long-declining industry gets a boost

Qiblawy said last year ​that Syria aims to increase gas output by 4-5 million cubic metres per day ​within a year, according to Reuters. 

ConocoPhillips' Chairman and CEO, Ryan Lance, announced that the business has reached a deal to assist Syria's onshore gas resource development, laying the groundwork for the country's natural gas production to be restored and increased, whilst Alex MacDonald, CEO of Novaterra Energy, said the company looks forward to working with its partners and the Syrian government to advance the project.

President Ahmed Al Sharaa hosted talks between the three companies at the Presidential Palace in Damascus on Tuesday, along with Asaad Al Shaibani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates and Mohammad al-Bashir, the Minister of Energy, as Syria sees natural gas as central to developing its power plants and supporting industrial activity. 

The deal with ConocoPhillips comes after Al Bashir visited Washington earlier this month, looking to secure deals with the US private sector, reflecting warming relations between the countries. 

Growing E&P deals

The Syrian government has signed a slew of oil and gas deals this year, hoping to revive an economy that was marred by years of war and infighting, which were followed by sanctions on the Assad-led government. Last month, Syria signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, and QatarEnergy for offshore oil and gas exploration.

Additionally, it struck a preliminary agreement with Qatari company Power International, and US energy giant Chevron for offshore energy exploration in February. 

More importantly, Damascus has regained control over the Kurdish region, allowing it to sign a deal with US-based HKN Energy to operate the oil and gas fields in Hasakah. UAE’s Dana Gas is also investing, signing an initial agreement last year with SPC to develop gas fields in central Syria. 

Since the Syrian civil war, the country has lost close to 380,000 barrels of oil per day and 900 million cubic feet of gas daily. The new government aims to return to pre-war production levels, targeting one million barrels of oil per day by 2030. SPC has already begun work and has rehabilitated five out of seven oil wells in the Al Bishri field in the country’s central region. 

But first, a word on those profits. Bearish calls and predictions of an oil glut were kicked into the long grass after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. Subsequent developments saw the oil price rise by over 46% in the year to 12 June, using Brent as a benchmark. 

With Brent largely trading on news signals, rising as high as $110 per barrel and falling to $85, only to rise and fall again, the supply-side crisis that gripped the global market saw the supermajors gain from the volatility.

Bumper numbers

In a sense, European oil and gas majors, with their huge trading operations, may be considered the primary beneficiaries led by the three largest among them — Shell, bp, and TotalEnergies.

These companies do not typically publish the performance of their trading arms separately from headline profits. But that overall performance has been pretty telling this year. TotalEnergies saw its first-quarter earnings rise by 30%, bp saw its earnings more than double, and Shell saw a 24% uptick.

Meanwhile, US majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil saw their profits fall in the corresponding quarter of 2025 due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, they comfortably beat analyst expectations for the quarter, with hopes of much better performance as the year progresses.

That’s because even if peace prevails imminently, it will take the better part of six months for the oil market to normalise, given the scale of the outages, infrastructural damage, and disruption to energy cargo transits.

Defensive deployment of petrodollars

It is unsurprising that many majors have embarked on investing those extra petrodollars. The investment mix, though, is intriguing and comes across as an exercise in defensive capital deployment at a time of extreme cyclical volatility in the market.

Their pivot back to traditional energy appears to be a recurring theme. That quest entails seeking the next big play. For many, if not most supermajors, such a play happens to US shale in general and the country’s Permian basin in particular.

The US is now firmly part of the plan to invest more, not less, in global exploration, as Chevron CEO Mike Wirth put it. Speaking at the recently concluded Bloomberg Energy Security Executive Briefing in Houston, Wirth said: “I do think you’ll see this country [US] and this hemisphere become a more important part of the global energy system. The US and the Americas are very well set up with strong energy resources and a lot of access to blue-water ports.”

Accompanying this investment in global exploration is capital spending on US liquefied natural gas infrastructure and terminals stateside. The US Energy Information Administration projects the country’s LNG exports to rise to 17.2 Bcfd in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcfd.

Supermajors wanting a way into these plays have amplified their presence either via buy or build strategies, though TotalEnergies leads the pack in terms of equity investments.

Overall, despite higher oil prices, the International Energy Agency’s outlook suggests capital outlays on hydrocarbons are expected to rise by a mere 3% in 2026, driven mainly by investment in natural gas projects.

The IEA also expects net refinery capacity to grow, reflecting a slowdown in closures this year. But new refinery investment is expected to fall to “decade-level lows.”

Tech investments for a new geopolitical reality

As the majors continue to grapple with targeted investment in hydrocarbon exploration and infrastructure, they are also unmistakably utilising their recent windfall to invest in technology along two pathways.

The first entails investing in technologies such as industrial artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced analytics to optimise operations, such as refineries, and improve margins, especially on jet fuel.

The second involves attuning their venture capital strategies to adapt to new geopolitical realities in the wake of the Iran war via efficiency technologies. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg NEF, the majors slashed low-carbon spending by 65% in 2025.

That trend will likely accelerate, with the venture arms of the majors, from Chevron Technology Ventures to Shell Ventures, visibly shifting their focus to startups specialising in robotics, automation and advanced subsurface imaging. Come the end of the year, it appears that investment by supermajors in process efficiencies and natural gas might well lead the way.

The facility, agreed between Essar Energy Transition Fuels (EETF) and IRH Global Trading, is designed to diversify crude sourcing options, expand market access for refined products, and optimise working capital arrangements.

The deal comes at a time when refiners are facing heightened volatility in global energy markets due to loss of Russian supplies, alongside persistent geopolitical instability in key producing regions, and increasing pressure to secure reliable feedstock supplies.

Thus, access to diversified supply channels and integrated trading capabilities has become critical to maintaining margins and operational stability.

Strengthening market access

According to Essar, the deal would enhance the refinery's capacity to adapt to shifting market conditions and extract profit from both its trading and refining businesses.

EETF owns and operates the Stanlow refinery, which is one of the UK's largest refining complexes. It plays a key role in domestic fuel supply, accounting for a significant share of road transport fuel demand. Its strategic importance has grown amid broader concerns over Europe’s refining capacity constraints and energy security.

Against this backdrop, EETF has begun pursuing a broader strategy focused on industrial decarbonisation and low-carbon energy investments in the UK. It also plans to reduce Stanlow’s emissions by 90%.  

The company said the transaction with IRH forms part of its efforts to build stronger relationships with major players across the global energy value chain.

Bolstering the energy infrastructure

IRH Global Trading, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-headquartered IRH, acts as a global energy trading and liquidity provider. The parent company has investments across various verticals, such as critical minerals and other resources linked to the energy transition. 

For IRH, this deal means an expanding role in global energy trading, as Gulf countries look to diversify their economies. 

Prashant Ruia, Chairman of Essar Energy Transition, described the agreement as a strategically important transaction for the Stanlow refinery.

“We are delighted to partner with IRH Global Trading on this strategically important transaction for our Stanlow refinery in the UK,” Ruia said.

Ali Rashed Al Rashdi, Chief Executive Officer of IRH, said the partnership would support supply security and operational resilience at one of the UK’s key refining assets.

“We are pleased to partner with Essar Energy Transition Fuels to enhance supply security and operational resilience at a critical UK refining hub,” Al Rashdi said.

The agreement will enable state utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. to import gas at the proposed Zululand LNG terminal in Richards Bay, an industrial city on the country’s east coast, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the accord hasn’t been officially announced.

The fuel will be used at a 3,000-megawatt power plant nearby that has yet to be constructed, the people said. Exxon and Eskom declined to comment.

Plagued by years of blackouts, South Africa is attempting to improve the reliability of its electricity supply. It’s also trying to reduce emissions by transitioning away from burning coal, which is used in about 80% of the country’s power generation. Importing LNG is an opportunity to solve both those problems, but typically comes at a higher price.

The deal helps Exxon toward its strategic goal of doubling LNG supplies to more than 40 million tons a year in the decade through 2030. The company recently started up its Golden Pass export terminal on the US Gulf Coast and plans to make final decisions later this year on whether to proceed with the construction of similar facilities in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea. 

Eskom has called gas a “bridge fuel” that will help incorporate renewables into the grid by providing baseload power when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.

But South Africa produces little natural gas domestically and faces a long wait for gas turbines from suppliers such as Siemens AG and General Electric Co., meaning it’s poised to delay existing plans to shut about 20% of its coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2030. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Utility-scale solar generation in California exceeded power from gas during 82% of the days this year through May, according to a Tuesday report from the US Energy Information Association. While solar has supplied more power to the state’s grid for short periods in the past, this marks the first year when average generation in the first five months has outpaced the fossil fuel that’s the biggest source of US electricity. 

The solar industry is growing despite efforts from the Trump administration to thwart the use of renewable energy. US policies favor traditional electric sources like coal and nuclear, which can produce power around the clock, unlike solar and wind. In May, solar overtook coal in US power generation for the first time.

California is aggressively adding renewable energy to meet a 2045 goal of reaching carbon neutrality, and has installed more panels and energy storage than any US state. Utility-scale solar capacity climbed 19% in the two years through April, while gas capacity was flat, according to the report.

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Grid operator 50Hertz Transmission is set to announce on Wednesday that a consortium including Germany’s Siemens Energy AG won a tender for a 2-gigawatt converter platform, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t yet public. The government is considering whether to support the deal with up to €300 million ($348 million) in loan guarantees, the people said.

The state-backed initiative would mark a turnaround for Europe’s biggest economy a decade after it surrendered the production of such converters – vast platforms that feed flows from turbines into the grid — as it scaled back its offshore wind ambitions. As with a range of other components in wind and solar energy, converter production is now dominated by Chinese producers. That has prompted the European Union to try to support more local manufacturing. 

The consortium also comprises Belgian construction firm Smulders — a subsidiary of French civil engineering construction company Eiffage — and Neptun Werft, a shipbuilder based in the Baltic port of Rostock.

The consortium’s bid requires less steel and has an optimized design that proved superior, beating competition from companies such as Spain’s Dragados Offshore, one of the people said. In 2024, the economy ministry said that an offshore converter platform costs around €2.5 billion.

Spokespeople for 50Hertz, the economy ministry and Siemens Energy declined to comment. Eiffage and Neptun Werft didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

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Mission 300, created in 2024, has connected more than 50 million people to electricity across 40 nations and is now delivering electricity access at nearly double the pace recorded at its start, the World Bank and African Development Bank said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

“Mission 300 is helping countries move faster, connect more people, and build a platform that will last well beyond this effort — one others can use, build on, and scale for years to come,” Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank, said in the statement. “At the end of the day, electricity is not just about power. It is about what it enables: jobs, business, healthcare, education, and opportunity.” 

The plan, if successful, would bring power to more than half of the about 565 million Africans who don’t have access to electricity. The continent is home to more than four-fifths of the world’s population without power, with electrification rates in countries such as South Sudan, Burundi and Chad among the lowest globally. That limits productivity and hampers economic growth in some of the poorest nations on earth. 

The program evaluates energy projects and helps mobilize financing for those that qualify, with the goal of raising at least $90 billion from public, private and multilateral sources.

At least 7.5 million people in Tanzania, 4.6 million people in Ethiopia and a similar amount in Nigeria have benefited from the plan, the multilateral lenders said. 

A joint initiative of the World Bank and the AfDB, it is also backed by major climate and development organizations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, and Sustainable Energy for All, alongside governments, development finance institutions and private-sector partners.

This project “must become the launchpad for faster electrification to enhance food security on account of affordable irrigation; increase capacity to store medicines for better health outcomes, and spur more inclusive economic and social empowerment,” AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah said.

To date, the AfDB and World Bank have committed nearly $15 billion to the project and attracted about $4.5 billion in co-financing, while additional development partners have pledged more than $7 billion, the lenders said. 

The program has also seen 30 nations set up National Energy Compacts, country-led plans to strengthen energy systems and expand access to affordable electricity, they said. Additional compacts are expected to be unveiled by Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Djibouti, Gabon, Rwanda and Uganda this week, according to the lenders.

Mission 300 “proves that African-led big bets, empowered by bold investment and partnership, can deliver results quickly and at scale,” Rajiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, said. 

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Global benchmark Brent fell below $83 a barrel, dropping for a fourth day, while West Texas Intermediate was near $81. The interim agreement is due to be signed by both sides in Switzerland on Friday, although Washington and Tehran have yet to release the text of their memorandum.

Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut price outlooks for the coming quarters, with the latter now assuming Persian Gulf exports will reach pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously forecast.

President Donald Trump insisted that the strait would be clear on Friday. “We have a lot of lanes right now already,” he told reporters at the Group of Seven summit in France. “It’s going to be open and it’s toll-free.”

Oil’s drop to the lowest since early March has erased the bulk of the gains seen during the conflict, easing inflationary pressures just as policymakers at the Federal Reserve assess interest rates this week. Still, many questions remain over how the interim pact will be implemented, including concerns over shipping safety, operating rules and whether the chokepoint — which carried about a fifth of oil supply before the war — will stay toll-free.

The lack of detail has kept the market cautious. Persian Gulf energy officials said they had been inundated with inquiries from buyers about whether crude could once again move through the strait, while shipping executives and traders said they need more clarity before committing vessels to the route.

Still, Morgan Stanley predicted that following the deal, Dated Brent would average $90 a barrel between July and September, down from an earlier call for $100. The fourth-quarter outlook was reduced by $15 to $80.

“Much is still to be negotiated and key risks remain, but for now, this is a key step toward a de-escalation of the conflict and higher oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz,” analysts including Martijn Rats wrote in a note. “We see 50% of production back by Sept., and 80% by Dec., slightly faster than before.”

At Goldman Sachs, analysts including Daan Struyven said they expected Brent to average $80 in the fourth quarter, $10 less than their earlier call.

RBC Capital Markets LLC struck a more cautious tone. “We think it will take months to reach anything close to February 27 levels,” analysts including Helima Croft said in a note, referring to the date before the start of the war. “Peak Hormuz flows may actually be in the rearview mirror,” they said.

In a reflection of the shifting dynamics, Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — has narrowed. While still in a bullish, backwardated pattern, with the nearer price above the next one, the gap was 83 cents a barrel on Tuesday. A month ago, it was above $4.

Further insight into market conditions is due on Wednesday, when the International Energy Agency is due to release its monthly analysis on the outlook. The Paris-based body advises major economies on policy, and helped to coordinate releases from members’ strategic stockpiles during the war.

The effective closure of Hormuz — which has been subject to a double blockade by Iran and the US — has cut oil flows from the region, triggering the drawdown of commercial and strategic inventories. The US’ emergency supply of crude hit the lowest since 1983, according to data Monday.

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