The decision, which will have little impact on international fuel markets, comes after drone strikes on refineries pushed Russia’s crude-processing rate to the lowest in more than 16 years. In an effort to curb the flow of petrodollars into the Kremlin’s coffers, Ukraine has targeted a wide range of energy assets including sea ports and pipelines. 

“The goal of the decision is to ensure a stable situation in the domestic fuel market,” the government said on its website.

Russia isn’t a major player on the world’s jet fuel market. Last year, it exported an average of 30,000 barrels a day, or less than 2% of the global supplies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. Daily average exports slipped to 28,000 barrels in the first four months of 2026, with Turkey being the main buyer, the data show. 

Russia is entering its summer vacation season, when demand for fuels typically rises. The Energy Ministry had already reimposed a ban on most gasoline exports from April 1, keeping more fuel for the domestic market. 

Rising prices at the pump can be a concern for the authorities, with costly gasoline triggering protests in the past, most recently in 2018. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Trump, in a Truth Social post late on Sunday US time, said constant speculation over whether he’ll agree to a deal — which will likely see the two sides extend their ceasefire by around two months, with Iran reopening the strait and the US lifting a blockade of Iranian ports — weren’t helping.

“It is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively ‘chirping,’” Trump said, “that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end.”

Trump’s under pressure to end a war that’s sent energy prices surging and is unpopular with most Americans. Yet he needs to balance that with the likely criticism that will come his way if Washington unfreezes billions of dollars of Iranian funds, as Tehran is demanding.

Tensions remain high and the US struck Iranian radar and command-and-control sites over the weekend. The American military said it was a “measured” response to “aggressive Iranian actions” including the shootdown of a drone over international waters.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted an air base in retaliation, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, without identifying where the site was. On Monday morning, Kuwait said its air defenses were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks.”

The clashes are the latest in a series of skirmishes over the past week. None of them has derailed the talks taking place between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, which has close ties to the IRGC, said Sunday that both sides continued proposing amendments to the draft deal, though stressed there’s no guarantee they’ll reach an agreement.

Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent climbing 2.8% to $93.65 a barrel. The benchmark fell more than 11% last week, with traders increasingly optimistic that there will be a deal and that the sides won’t revert to a full-on war.

Trump’s post on the negotiations was his first since a White House Situation Room meeting on Friday in which he said he would make a “final determination.” Instead, he held off as the sides continue to negotiate details related to Iran’s stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium and how the reopening of the Hormuz waterway, which probably needs to be demined first, will be carried out.

Iran has demanded that any deal with the US apply to all fighting across the region, including in Lebanon where Tehran-backed Hezbollah and Israel are fighting a parallel war.

Israel has deepened its invasion of the Arab country, capturing the Crusader-era Beaufort Castle over the weekend,  while Hezbollah stepped up attacks on Israel’s north. The Israeli military said Hezbollah fired more than 300 “projectiles” at its soldiers in Lebanon and at northern Israel over the weekend.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for a new ceasefire initiative, an Axios reporter said in a post on X, citing an unidentified US official. The US proposed that as a first step, Hezbollah would stop all attacks on Israel and Israel would refrain from escalation in Beirut. 

Israel is not party to the talks between the US and the Islamic Republic and it’s not clear whether it will agree to stop its campaign in Lebanon if the war in Iran is resolved.

Talking Points

On Saturday, Iranian state TV reported the existence of a new draft agreement, which it said gives the Islamic Republic “exclusive authority to determine the nature of transiting vessels” in Hormuz, a negotiating point the US is unlikely to accept. 

The draft also said the US has committed to giving Iran access to $12 billion in frozen funds within 60 days, to be sent directly to Iranian banks without restrictions, according to Iranian TV. It said the document was “unofficial” and not “finalized.” 

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the report.

Here’s more on the Iran war:

• French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Israel’s latest advance in Lebanon and called for a ceasefire. “Nothing justifies the major escalation currently underway in southern Lebanon,” he said in a post on X.
• Israeli airstrikes in response to renewed attacks by Hezbollah in March have devastated swaths of southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut, and killed at least 3,370 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
• Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, said the military had planted its flag on the historic Beaufort Castle near Nabatieh and that the expansion amounted to “a permanent presence” in the region.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In an exclusive interaction on the sidelines of AVEVA World in Milan, Caspar Herzberg spoke to Energy Connects on what this “race to resilience” means for the future of industrial policy. Challenging the conventional wisdom that sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are at odds, Herzberg highlights how the push for diversified, redundant energy grids is driving sustainable outcomes. From the challenges of rapid localisation to the high-stakes deployment of digital twins and industrial AI, he outlines a realistic vision for the future of the world’s most complex energy infrastructure.

You have spoken extensively about the “race to resilience”. With nations treating energy security as synonymous with national security, what does this mean for global industrial policies? Do you believe this will drive localisation, globalisation, or a mix of both?

It will definitely spark more localised investments. We are going to see companies and governments investing in everything they can – from generation plants to processing plants, and generally moving toward multiples of industrial assets.

A clear hypothesis is emerging, and we’ve already observed it in the United States as a matter of policy. However, we’ve also seen the inherent challenges of rapid localization – specifically, that the necessary skills and human capital are often missing because capabilities have regressed over time. There simply aren’t always the people around locally to build these complex types of plants right away.

While there is a lot of talk about globalisation being rolled back, the world has been highly globalised before – such as before the First World War – and while it rolled back then, it was never totally dismantled. Because of modern data connectivity, global migration, and how interconnected we are, I don’t believe we will truly see a completely disconnected world.

Instead, resilience is going to be the defining imperative. But to execute resilience properly, it means implementing significantly more sustainability than we have had in the past.

That is an interesting connection. Usually, sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are viewed as being at odds. How do they align?

They align because everyone is going to invest into multiple, diversified sources of energy to prepare for the moment they are cut off from one. Look at what happened to Germany: they relied heavily on Russian gas, made a massive effort to pivot to Qatari gas, and now they must make another huge effort to truly diversify beyond gas toward every possible option. Even nuclear energy is now being considered as part of a broader European approach for Germany. Previously disregarded capabilities are making a major comeback.

We’ve seen this clearly in China. China is a much more sustainable place today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. That change didn’t happen because they focused purely on sustainability for its own sake; it happened because they wanted to be resilient. When you build highly diversified, redundant, and self-sufficient energy systems to achieve resilience, sustainability improves as a natural byproduct.

Furthermore, from a supply chain perspective, these hyper-thin, hyper-optimised global supply chains have always worried me. If you have all your eggs in one basket very far away, you are exposed. Doubling down on redundant local capabilities is simply good business and good grid resilience.

How do digital twins and artificial intelligence figure into this race for industrial resilience? Which sectors see the most critical need?

When we talk about a digital twin, we are talking about a digital representation of a physical asset. That can span from a 3D physical representation to a process-driven twin fueled by real-time operational data.

In a volatile world, you cannot afford to work in an environment where an unexpected shortage leaves you scrambling. This is where the digital twin and the ability to collaborate in the cloud become revolutionary. By utilising AI on top of a digital twin design, companies can significantly reduce engineering and design times, push that twin out, and collaborate seamlessly across the supply chain to build assets in fractions of historical timeframes.

We are seeing a doubling down on redundant capabilities across the board – whether in refineries, ports, shipping, pipelines, or nuclear power stations. Instead of seeing fewer complex plants in the future, we are actually seeing a lot more complex plants being commissioned to secure supply cushions.

Regarding AI, there is nothing inevitable about the way it will develop. We are all subjected to a relentless marketing machine from technology companies, but the reality is that the industrial sector is figuring out what works and what doesn't. In a process industry like refining, an AI model that works 99.5% of the time is not good enough; a refinery or a nuclear plant running on that margin would be forced to close.

Our mission at AVEVA is to safely mobilise industrial data. It’s about combining operational technology (OT) data with broader business data, planning systems, and supply chains into a unified view so that companies can deploy best-in-class AI analytics tools securely.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Investment 2026 report, the current supply shock — linked to disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz — has heightened concerns over energy security and the reliability of trade routes, prompting a rethink of investment priorities.

The scale of the disruption is significant. “We are in the midst of the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. The supply shock “is expected to leave a lasting imprint on future investment priorities.”

Capital reallocated

How investment is allocated shows a clear trend toward reinvestment. Rather than expanding supply, more funds are now directed to projects that strengthen energy systems, such as grid upgrades, alternative transport routes, and domestic energy sources.

The IEA notes growing efforts to diversify supply chains and fuel types, with investments in renewables, nuclear, and fossil fuels where needed to ensure reliability.

Despite the disruption, overall capital flows into the energy system remain resilient, reaching new highs: global energy investment is projected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, with around $2.2 trillion allocated to electricity systems, including grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear, and renewables. 

Meanwhile, around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas, and coal, underlining the continued role of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix.

Within fossil fuels, investment trends are also changing. 

Oil spending is set to decline for a third consecutive year falling below $500 billion despite higher prices, while natural gas investment is rising — $330 billion projected — driven by a new wave of LNG projects aimed at strengthening supply flexibility.

Across the whole system, electricity is becoming the main focus for new investment. More money is being invested in power infrastructure to support electrification, improve networks, and connect different energy sources, reflecting the growing importance of secure, reliable electricity systems in an increasingly complex energy landscape.

Diversification and resilience

The IEA said countries are responding to the current crisis by intensifying efforts to diversify trade routes and energy sources.

Its findings point to a shift toward projects designed to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks and strengthen energy security throughout the system.

At the same time, disruption is evolving from physical to cyber-physical. Energy infrastructure is now a contested domain where digital intrusion, misinformation, and automated attacks intersect with kinetic risks. Energy security is thus less about reserves, contracts, or infrastructure and more about detection speed, system intelligence, and real-time response capacity. 

AI is therefore arguably shifting from an optimisation tool to a foundational layer of energy security, emerging as a general-purpose technology comparable in systemic importance to electricity. In an environment of continuous disruption, energy security is increasingly determined by AI.

This implication is structural: energy systems are no longer exposed to sequential failures, but to coordinated, multi-layer attacks.

AI is therefore arguably shifting from an optimisation tool to a foundational layer of energy security, emerging as a general-purpose technology comparable in systemic importance to electricity. In an environment of continuous disruption, energy security is increasingly determined by AI. 

Chokepoints and global spillovers: the Strait of Hormuz

A small number of physical chokepoints continue to anchor global energy stability, and none is more consequential than the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 25% of seaborne global oil trade transits this narrow corridor, alongside significant volumes of LNG and other strategic commodities. This geographical concentration creates a structural vulnerability that becomes acute under geopolitical stress.

Recent tensions in the Middle East show how even limited disruptions to shipping trigger immediate global repercussions. European gas markets react almost instantly through Dutch TTF pricing, while Asian importers, particularly Japan, South Korea, and China, face rising LNG spot prices and shipping premiums. These effects are not gradual but rapid system-wide responses, reflecting tightly coupled energy markets.

The scale of risk is well established. The 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility removed around 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) or nearly 5% of global supply, driving a nearly 20% price spike in a single trading session, one of the largest intraday increases in modern energy markets. The lesson is not only about the costs of energy system exposure, but also about limited system adaptability. This gap between disruption and response is where AI is beginning to play a critical role.

The cyber-physical threat: hybrid warfare and infrastructure targeting

Energy infrastructure is increasingly targeted across multiple vectors simultaneously, including cyber intrusions into operational technology systems, AI-enabled phishing, and physical sabotage of pipelines, terminals, and grid assets.

This shift is measurable. Cyberattacks on energy utilities have tripled over the past four years, partly driven by AI that has increased the scale and precision of attacks. This trend has exposed the vulnerability of industrial control systems, with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks and sensor data susceptible to manipulation through false telemetry injection or compromised operator interfaces.

Recent incidents and threat assessments show growing exposure to concurrent disruptions across digital and physical layers. The expanding digitalisation of energy infrastructure has widened the attack surface, increasing risks to both IT and operational systems. Institutions such as the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Institute of Standards and Technology warn that adversaries can alter control processes and mislead monitoring systems through data manipulation, while the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity warns that phishing and social engineering are the primary entry point risks. This implication is structural: energy systems are no longer exposed to sequential failures, but to coordinated, multi-layer attacks.

AI as the shield for predictive resilience

Traditional models of energy security are inherently reactive, focused on restoring the system after disruption. AI shifts this paradigm toward predictive resilience, enabling early detection of anomalies in grid behaviour, market signals and cyber intrusions before they escalate into system-wide failures.

Machine learning models trained on historical operational data can identify deviations in load balancing and system performance within milliseconds, reducing response times that previously took hours. Evidence from grid operators shows that AI can reduce outage durations by 30-50% while also improving utilisation of existing grid infrastructure. This marks a structural shift from failure response to failure prevention, where AI is no longer an efficiency layer but a core mechanism of risk containment.

Agentic AI and real-time threat neutralisation

The emergence of agentic AI marks the next phase in energy system resilience. Unlike conventional systems that depend on human intervention, agentic AI operates autonomously within predefined constraints, enabling real-time detection, decision-making, and response. In operational terms, this allows systems to isolate compromised grid nodes, reroute electricity or gas flows, and pre-emptively shut down vulnerable components before cascading failures occur. Evidence from simulated grid environments suggests that AI-enabled control and rerouting significantly improve fault containment by accelerating detection and response time, reducing the propagation of local disturbances. This shifts energy infrastructure toward a dynamic, self-adaptive operating system in which stabilisation and recovery are automated. In the context of hybrid warfare, such autonomy is critical as resilience is no longer just a recovery function but an embedded system capability that continuously adapts as threats unfold.

Digital twins: simulating disruption before it happens

Digital twins are emerging as a central component of energy system resilience. By replicating physical infrastructure in real time, they allow operators to simulate and analyse disruption scenarios before they occur, using continuously updated operational data from assets such as refineries, pipelines, LNG terminals, and electricity grids.

Companies such as Shell and Equinor have already deployed digital twins at the asset level, achieving measurable gains in efficiency and reductions in unplanned downtime. At the system scale, they enable scenario modelling for infrastructure loss, cyberattacks, and geopolitically driven supply disruptions.

In the context of market instability, this allows European and Asian operators to simulate LNG rerouting, stress-test supply shocks, and adjust operational strategies in advance. The result is a shift from reactive crisis management to anticipatory system design, where disruption is modelled and mitigated before it materialises.

Decentralisation: reducing systemic vulnerability

Conventional energy systems are highly centralised, relying on large-scale generation and long transmission networks. While efficient, this structure concentrates risk in critical nodes, where disruptions can cascade across entire systems.

AI is enabling a shift toward decentralised energy systems built on distributed energy resources, smart microgrids, and local balancing systems. These reduce dependence on single points of failure and enhance overall system resilience. AI thus functions as the orchestration layer, continuously balancing supply and demand, optimising storage, and managing load flows in real time. The result is a structural transition from rigid, hierarchical systems to adaptive networks better able to absorb both physical and geopolitical shocks.

Technology as a stabiliser of energy markets

Beyond infrastructure, AI is becoming a stabilising force in energy markets. As global systems grow more complex and volatile, accurate forecasting and logistics optimisation are more critical than ever. AI-driven predictive analytics are now used to anticipate demand shifts, optimise LNG shipping routes, and improve price signalling across interconnected markets.

During periods of volatility, these tools reduce forecasting errors and improve decision-making for utilities and industrial consumers. This enhances planning certainty and lowers price volatility, hedging costs, and exposure across supply chains. In a world where geopolitical shocks transmit rapidly through markets, data-driven stabilisation becomes a core pillar of energy security.

Resource AI: maximising existing supply

AI is also reshaping supply dynamics by improving the utilisation of existing energy assets. Rather than focusing solely on capacity expansion, it enhances efficiency via predictive maintenance, drilling optimisation, and reservoir modelling, increasing output while reducing downtime. At scale, these incremental gains translate into significant supply-side improvements, particularly in constrained markets. Platforms such as ADNOC’s ENERGYai — an agentic AI solution to improve decision making and operational efficiency — exemplify this approach by integrating demand forecasting with upstream optimisation to maximise asset performance and resource utilisation.

Case study: building the energy– AI nexus

The integration of AI across energy systems is already visible at the national level. In the UAE, ADNOC’s Energyai project has deployed AI across predictive maintenance, demand modelling, and digital twin applications in its refining operations, leading to efficiency improvements, reduced downtime, and enhanced responsiveness to market volatility.

Similar trends are emerging across Europe, particularly in systems with higher shares of variable renewables. Grid operators in Germany and the Nordic region are increasingly using AI-driven forecasting and optimisation tools to manage intermittency and maintain system stability.

AI, energy demand, and a new geopolitical layer

AI is not only securing energy systems but also reshaping them. The rapid expansion of AI-driven data centres is creating a major new source of electricity demand, rising from around 415 TWh in 2024 to nearly 945 TWh by 2030 — just under 3% of global electricity use. Growth is driven by AI workloads, with specialised servers expanding at around 30% annually, though efficiency gains in hardware and cooling are helping to contain overall demand. According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand from data centres grew at 17% globally in 2025. In the United States, data centres accounted for around 50% of total electricity demand growth.

This introduces a new geopolitical dimension to energy security. Countries able to provide reliable, scalable, low-cost electricity will gain a strategic advantage in deploying AI. Energy security is increasingly tied to digital competitiveness, blurring the line between the energy and technology sectors, making them not just complementary but interdependent.

Risks and limitations of AI in energy systems

Another critical factor to consider for the long-term outlook on the AI-energy nexus is that integrating of AI introduces risks that extend beyond operational performance into system design and governance. As AI becomes embedded in real-time grid control and forecasting, it expands the cyber-physical vulnerabilities, exposing energy systems not only to conventional cyber intrusion but also to manipulation of data inputs, training processes, and model outputs, with cascading effects on dispatch accuracy and grid stability. These risks are amplified in renewable systems, where volatility requires rapid automated responses.

AI performance is also constrained by uneven data quality, limited interoperability, and fragmented legacy infrastructure, which can embed bias and reduce predictive accuracy. The use of opaque “black-box” models raises governance and accountability concerns in safety-critical grid operations where decisions must remain understandable and traceable.

In addition, AI infrastructure itself is resource-intensive and requires significant electricity and water for data centres, exacerbating competition for resources. With these numbers set to grow further in the coming years, one of the most critical challenges for the energy sector is balancing the power demand growth with AI’s pivotal role in securing the future of energy in an age of disruption.

Conclusion: AI as the new energy resource

The current instability in the Middle East reflects structural shift in the global energy landscape rather than an isolated disruption. Physical chokepoints remain exposed, infrastructure is increasingly targeted, and market responses are both immediate and amplified by interconnected systems – where speed, scale and the complexity of disruption are the defining factors. 

With the critical ability to enable predictive action, autonomous system management, and real-time asset optimisation, AI and digitalisation can therefore alter how energy systems manage risks and pave the way for a more robust energy future. AI is no longer a tool for efficiency, but a system-level capability in a world where energy security is no longer defined solely by access to resources but by the capacity to process information, anticipate shocks and respond dynamically. In this framework, AI becomes a core strategic asset, functionally analogous to an energy resource in its ability to sustain system stability under conditions of persistent disruption 

• This Market Outlook report was produced as a part of ADIPEC’s Energy & Geopolitics series. For more information and coverage, visit: https://www.adipec.com/press-media/insights/

The bloc adopted a dynamic mechanism last year to ensure that the price cap is automatically set every six months at 15% lower than the average market rate for Russian Urals crude. The current price threshold is $44.10 per barrel and is due for review later this summer.

Under the cap, European firms are banned from providing services such as insurance and transportation involving oil sold above the threshold.

Oil prices have soared as a result of the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The next price cap review in July would likely see the level rise to at least $65, higher than the previous $60 threshold set collectively by the Group of Seven, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. 

The freeze would keep the price cap at the current rate, thereby limiting the windfall Russia is pocketing from current high oil prices. Other options under consideration include suspending dynamic and automatic increases until the end of the year in light of the exceptional circumstances in the Middle East, or capping any rise to $60 back in line with the G7 level, the people said.

The move would be part of the EU’s latest sanctions package, the bloc’s 21st since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The EU aims to finalize and formally propose a package of new measures in early June. Member-state envoys were briefed on the plans last week. 

Other measures under discussion for the new sanctions package include targeting more banks, oil traders, refineries and crypto operators in third countries used by Moscow to circumvent the bloc’s restrictions. As well, about 20 additional tankers would be sanctioned in the covert fleet of vessels that Russia depends on to move its oil, and eventually that regime would be extended to ships carrying liquefied natural gas, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to create a shadow fleet for LNG.

The EU has so far sanctioned hundreds of vessels and intends to also target ships providing services to the tankers, the people said.

However, the new sanctions are unlikely to include a full ban on maritime services. Several member states continue to oppose that option due to the volatility in the Middle East, and unless the measure is backed by the wider G7.

The main goals of the new package, the people said, are to further tighten the screws on Russia’s energy revenues and its financial sector, as well as starving its military industry of essential supplies. Sanctions require the backing of all member states before they’re adopted, and plans could change before that. Maritime nations such as Greece have often bristled at price-cap changes, while other capitals are particularly sensitive toward what they say are their energy and trade interests.

Other proposals for the next package include trade restrictions on some critical minerals, metals and ores used in Russia’s aerospace sector and to develop the drones it uses to bomb Ukraine’s cities, as well as technologies such as jamming.

The bloc is also considering export controls on about two dozen firms, including companies in China, India, Turkey and Central Asia, that are allegedly still supplying Russia with restricted goods found in weapons or needed to make them.

The EU is also in the early stages of assessing ways to help the clearing house Euroclear Ltd. after a Moscow court judgment allowed for the Central Bank of Russia to potentially seize its assets. That came after the EU approved the use of emergency powers to indefinitely extend a freeze on as much as €210 billion ($245 billion) in Russian central bank assets immobilized. Most of those funds are held through Euroclear.

The EU intends to keep the assets immobilized until the war ends and Russia pays reparations to Ukraine. Several member states, including Belgium, have opposed all efforts to seize the assets outright.

Discussions on introducing a visa ban on former combatants are continuing as well, the people said.

Spokespeople for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm that coordinates the EU’s sanctions efforts, declined to comment. 

(Updates to reflect EU declined to comment in final paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

He took the task to heart. Employees say Manifold was immediately demanding, delving into the nitty gritty across the company and putting staff on the spot, at times unpleasantly so. He clashed with Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss, and then was involved in removing him. But the blunt Dubliner also won the backing of one of BP’s biggest investors and most influential critics: activist Elliott Investment Management.

Just months later, the former building-materials boss is out, fired after the company abruptly issued a statement referring to “governance standards, oversight and conduct” — but left investors and analysts guessing about what exactly he’d done. 

People close to BP have offered a range of different reasons for the exit and broader tensions, alleging that it received multiple complaints against him of bullying and aggressive behavior; that he used a personal device for sensitive company information; and that he sought to control the relationship with Elliott while alienating other investors. 

Manifold quickly hit back, issuing a 773-word statement attacking what he said were “lies” being spread about him, defending his efforts to cut costs, and making implied jabs about the spending habits of his fellow directors. A representative provided further detailed comments for this story, reiterating that he was never told about any complaints about his conduct before he was removed, saying he encouraged and facilitated meetings with Elliott for colleagues, and that the use of an external email address was a company-sanctioned workaround to technology malfunctions at BP. 

The sudden firing of a non-executive chairman, followed by Manifold’s very public and spirited rebuttal, has transfixed the London business community as a rare example of ugly boardroom acrimony spilling out into the open at one of Britain’s most-storied companies.

“It’s hard to think of a situation like this; precedents are quite scarce,” said Larry Cunningham, the head of the Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “I don’t think they owe us a detailed explanation, but it does leave us all to put the dots together.” 

As the details trickle out, the turmoil risks becoming a badly-timed distraction for BP’s leadership just as the company was finally finding its feet after a long period of underperformance. Faced with pressure from one of the world’s most aggressive and successful activist investors, it has been cutting costs, selling assets to reduce a huge debt pile and refocus the business back on oil and gas after a failed pivot to renewables. 

The psychodrama raises questions about the functioning of the board, which has presided over a revolving door of leaders, and received a black eye from shareholders just last month when investors rejected two resolutions at its AGM and penalized Manifold in a protest vote. The result came as a shock to the company, people familiar with the matter said. 

Manifold’s departure has also put the spotlight on two powerful women as BP seeks to reassure investors the turnaround will remain on track: lead independent director Amanda Blanc, a City of London stalwart who runs UK insurer Aviva Plc, is known for her uncompromising style, and was responsible for hiring him last year; and Meg O’Neill, the new CEO handpicked by Manifold himself, who has been in the role for barely two months.

This story is based on conversations with nearly two dozen people familiar with the matter, most of whom asked not to be identified discussing private information. 

“As we have made clear our former chair was removed as a result of unacceptable conduct,” BP said in response to questions. “We have a duty of care to protect all our employees and as such we will never comment on specific people or situations.”

A spokesperson for Manifold said: “Albert was never told — not once, not informally, not by HR, not by the senior independent director, not by any board member — that any complaint had been made about his conduct before he was removed. He had no opportunity to respond because nothing was ever put to him.”

Scandals and Missteps

Manifold’s dramatic departure caps a prolonged leadership upheaval for the company that once rivaled Exxon Mobil Corp. at the turn of the century for the title of the world’s largest publicly traded oil company. 

Today, BP is less than a fifth of the size of its American rival. The company has spent years struggling to emerge from a series of scandals, crises and missteps — most recently the failed strategy to refocus on green energy led by then-CEO Bernard Looney, who was forced to resign in 2023 after failing to fully disclose past relationships with colleagues. 

When Manifold was named as chairman last July, the company was floundering. Looney’s successor Auchincloss and then outgoing chairman Helge Lund had struggled to convince investors even after unveiling a new strategy to refocus on oil and gas. Elliott, Paul Singer’s activist hedge fund, had built a roughly 5% stake in the company and was pushing for faster changes to reverse years of underperformance.

In 11 years as CEO of Irish building materials firm CRH Plc, Manifold oversaw a more than fourfold increase in the company’s shares. People who knew him at the time described him as brash and hard-charging, with one person saying that at times he kept such long hours that some other executives were exhausted keeping up with him. 

A top-five investor in the company at the time described him as a straight talker, but said he was one of the best CEOs he’s worked with. Manifold’s drive was crucial to CRH’s rapid growth, said Claus Bering, a senior adviser for CRH in the Nordic region who worked closely with him. 

“A lot of people find him very demanding, very direct, very precise,” Bering said. “But he was never disrespectful. Some people could call him a bit brutal, a bit demanding, but I’m a Dane. I like it a lot.”

The recruitment process for the new chairman was overseen by Blanc, and run by executive search firm Egon Zehnder, which declined to comment. In the months running up to the appointment, better known UK business figures including former BHP Group Chairman Ken Mackenzie were touted as potential chairs for the 117-year-old BP, but the company eventually turned instead to the lower-profile former executive whose only non-executive director experience was on the boards of LyondellBasell Industries NV and Irish engineering firm Mercury.

Blanc herself has pulled off an impressive turnaround at Aviva since taking over as CEO in 2020. She exited non-core markets, made select acquisitions including a £3.6 billion deal for car insurer Direct Line, and managed to appease Cevian Capital AB, Europe’s largest activist firm. She is from a working-class background — both of her grandfathers were coal miners in Wales — and people who know her well describe her as an efficient and demanding executive.  

When Manifold started in October, he threw himself into a review of BP’s business. He was so engaged in the details that some employees joked about him being an executive chairman. The company’s culture and priorities immediately changed, some people said, particularly with an aggressive push away from renewables and green investments. His demanding and abrasive approach took its toll on staff, some employees said. 

“The board is responsible for setting the strategic vision of the company as set out by the management team,” Manifold’s spokesperson said. “In order to understand the business in depth, a chair must spend time sitting with the company looking at all parts of the business in detail.” They denied that Manifold personally criticized individual employees. 

Manifold hit it off with representatives from Elliott, who were supportive of the direction he was taking the company, people familiar with the matter said previously. The hedge fund has yet to lay out its position in the wake of Manifold’s exit. Elliott didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

But he had confrontations with then-CEO Auchincloss — a BP insider who succeeded Looney — before abruptly removing him and appointing O’Neill as the company’s first external boss and the first female CEO in Big Oil. The former head of Australia’s Woodside Energy Group Ltd., O’Neill is an Exxon alumnus who is known for her no-nonsense approach. 

Auchincloss didn’t respond to requests for comment about his relationship with the former chairman.

BP did not comment on whether the board held conversations to clarify their respective roles, given Manifold’s hands-on approach. But O’Neill told people close to her at the time that she and Manifold were aligned, including on the need for difficult decisions around personnel and the structure of the business, one of the people said. 

By the time she took up her post on April 1, BP was showing signs of stabilizing — the balance sheet was finally being addressed, share buybacks were suspended in February to free up cash and low-returning asset disposals were advancing to help pay down debt. Plus there was a new tailwind: profits were rising on the back of elevated oil prices due to the Iran war. Its shares have outperformed BP’s American rivals at times in 2026. 

O’Neill and Manifold regularly attended meetings with investors and advisors together, and one person who attended said there were no signs of animosity between them. By mid-April, two of BP’s biggest investors told Bloomberg they were supportive of the leadership team, with one noting that Manifold’s capital allocation expertise would complement O’Neill’s operational strength. Speaking this week, one top-40 investor who meets with BP regularly described the combination of Manifold, O’Neill and Elliott as a dream trio for other shareholders. 

And O’Neill quickly made her presence felt, announcing that the company would restructure along more traditional lines, in a move that continues the reversal of changes made under Looney. 

But there were also signs of trouble brewing. 

BP angered a number of investors by refusing to include a resolution from activist climate investor group Follow This in its AGM materials, claiming that it didn’t meet the legal requirements — a position the group disputed. A number of other investors criticized the company and proxy adviser Glass Lewis recommended shareholders vote against Manifold’s election at the meeting because of the concerns raised over transparency and corporate governance. 

The company received a significant protest vote at the meeting — two of its own proposals that would have allowed fully virtual annual meetings and revoked previously approved climate related disclosure obligations were rejected. Just under 82% of shareholders voted in favor of Manifold’s election — a clear rebuke as directors typically receive approvals close to 100%.

BP was surprised by the results of the vote, and Manifold appeared angry with the outcome, some people said. Tensions in the board appeared to increase after the AGM, they said. Manifold’s representative denied this. 

People close to BP described a recent clash between Manifold and company secretary Ben Mathews, who is currently on leave. They didn’t specify what the confrontation was about, but the company secretary’s role includes advising the board on process and corporate governance as part of its deliberation and decision making. 

A spokesperson for Manifold said: “Mr Manifold did not clash with Ben Mathews. They spoke almost every day, worked closely together and had a strong professional relationship. Mr Mathews publicly expressed his support of Mr Manifold in his role on a number of occasions, including to third parties in recent weeks.”

A person who worked in a previous role with Mathews described him as highly competent and a consummate professional, who made sure there were no surprises at board meetings, and was able to deal with big egos. 

In meetings with shareholders this week, Blanc and interim Chairman Ian Tyler said that the company received a serious complaint about Manifold’s behavior last week, which triggered the process that resulted in his removal, but gave little other detail, one investor said. They said they knew going in that Manifold was brash and hard-nosed but that the situation had gone too far. 

On Tuesday, the board decided unanimously to remove Manifold, the company said in its statement. Director Ian Tyler was named interim chair and the company will start a process to find a permanent replacement. 

Manifold has hired law firm Mishcon de Reya, a person close to him said. The spokesperson said on Saturday that he hasn’t made any decisions about legal action. 

The risk now is that the public spat becomes a distraction for BP’s leadership as it seeks to turn around the troubled company. 

Bloomberg spoke with five of BP’s top 40 investors this week, who almost uniformly said they were focused on the company’s strategy and execution. Most said they didn’t expect that would change as a result of Manifold’s exit, although at least one expressed concern about whether his loss would leave a hole. 

“We like Meg O’Neill,” said Brian Kersmanc, a portfolio manager at GQG Partners, which says it holds over 290 million shares in BP. “Her focus is on cost cutting and restructuring initiatives regardless of changes at the chairman level.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least two shipowners, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information, said they were in touch with American military forces, which advised them on how best to navigate the waterway. A spokesperson for the US Central Command said US military assets aren’t escorting ships, but the command continues to provide advice to commercial vessels in the region.

One person with knowledge of a transit said a group of vessels was approached by suspected Iranian fast boats during the journey. The boats were turned away by helicopters that suddenly appeared nearby, allowing the person’s vessel to continue away from Hormuz, they said.

Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth told Bloomberg TV on Friday that some vessels transiting Hormuz have recently come under attack. On the same day, the US affirmed that deals with Iran to safely sail through the Strait of Hormuz — even those which don’t involve paying a toll — are prohibited.

Some of the ships that have crossed belong to companies that hadn’t transited Hormuz since the war began, according to several people involved in shipping markets. Two people said some ships were entering the Persian Gulf as well as leaving. 

If sustained, the increase in transits could signal that more shipping companies are willing to make the journey, boosting the flow of everything from oil and gas to consumer goods. Until now, transits had largely been limited to vessels operating under bilateral government arrangements or owned by the small group of more-daring shipping executives willing to accept the risks of sailing through Hormuz. 

Regional countries, including the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, have also sent ships through, while Qatar is quietly exporting liquefied natural gas to key buyers. 

Some of the vessels that crossed in recent days did so with their satellite transponders switched off and have yet to turn them back on. It’s a sign that conventional vessel-tracking methods may understate how many vessels are making the voyage. 

Ship-tracking data show that at least a quarter of the non-Iranian ships stranded in Hormuz since the conflict began have made their way out.

The White House has repeatedly sent conflicting messages on the prospects for a deal with Iran, a pattern that continued on Friday. A fresh agreement between the two nations could potentially open the door for a broader reopening of shipping through Hormuz. 

Owners privately said they hope the agreement would allow for a resumption of Hormuz flows, but that uncertainty remained until its full details were known. Some said that until that agreement was reached, while it might be possible to get vessels out of Hormuz, many owners would remain reluctant to enter. 

TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said Friday his company would want indications of lasting peace before sending vessels back into the Persian Gulf. 

A sustained resumption to shipping also has the potential to boost oil tanker earnings that are already the highest in a generation in the short-term, if a peace emerges that leaves shipowners comfortable to transit. 

“We would expect, if you like, a frenzy phase to start with,” once Hormuz reopens, Gerasimos Kalogiratos, Chief Executive Officer of Capital Tankers Corp., said on an earnings call this week. He added that tanker costs would stay high in the longer-term as global oil inventories refill barrels lost to the war. 

(Adds new details on US stance in paragraphs 4 and 10)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Just a couple of years after a historic boost to the nation’s fossil fuel exports over Ukraine war-related sanctions against Russia, demand for Norway’s resources is set to persist with another war, in the Middle East, again heightening security of supply worries.

Successive governments on both sides of the political spectrum have pledged to reduce Norway’s dependence on oil and gas — highlighted by experts as a priority for more than a decade to diversify and crisis-proof the economy for a time when those reserves have run out. 

The Nordic nation, which first discovered oil in 1969, has been relatively successful at reducing carbon emissions at home, with pioneering electric-vehicle adoption or carbon capture initiatives. At the same time, it’s exposed to claims of war profiteering over its role as a major fossil fuel exporter.

While Norway has been more prudent than most other resource-rich nations by investing the fossil fuel revenue in its $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, it’s struggled to foster a broad basis of industries to underpin its economy.

Combined oil and gas shipment volume has declined from its 2004 peak, yet petroleum is still the dominant export sector in Norway: oil and gas made up 57% of Norway’s goods sold abroad in 2025, and monthly crude sales revenue reached a record after the outbreak of the Iran war. 

Norway’s economic diversity, meanwhile, keeps declining, underperforming that of its Nordic peers. Increasing trade protectionism and the krone’s recent strengthening to multi-year highs are likely to make export diversification even tougher. 

An index of economic complexity shows Norway’s gap with the rest of Nordics has widened already since the early 2000s. The measure, developed by the Growth Lab at Harvard University, explains why wealth developments differ across countries.

With oil and gas providing more than a fifth of Norway’s total gross domestic product, services account for most of the remainder, dominated by health, education and public administration. While the fishing and aquaculture industry is a strong contributor to exports, its share of GDP is at around 3%.

Initiatives on wind power, green hydrogen or battery production have faced various difficulties in past years. Earlier this month, Morrow Batteries ASA, which manufactured cells for energy-storage installations, filed for bankruptcy. It was the latest battery venture in Europe to fail following the much-publicized demise of Swedish group Northvolt AB last year.

While the previous government of Labor Premier Jonas Gahr Store set an aim in 2021 to increase non-oil exports by 50% by the end of the decade, the progress toward that goal has largely reflected the effect of inflation and of weak currency, while only a quarter of the target is achieved if adjusted for those effects.

Cuts in this year’s budget are undermining these efforts, the country’s National Export Council, an advisory body set up to support that goal, said in a report at the end of last year.

Earlier this month, the Energy Ministry announced that it will award 70 new blocks in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea to its annual licensing round covering the most mature exploration areas on the continental shelf. It also approved plans to reopen three gas fields, with production planned to start in 2028 and continue until 2048.

Anders Opedal, chief executive officer of energy giant Equinor ASA, said in February — before the onslaught of the Iran war — that the company has “a very high bar” for new investments in offshore wind. In April, Equinor halved its stake in local renewables developer Scatec ASA in a further realignment toward its core hydrocarbon business.

Asked whether he is worried about global trends delaying Norway’s transition away from producing oil and gas, Store on Friday referred to how his nation provides more than 30% of Europe’s gas, saying that “for Norway to say we can deliver on that for the coming years is a stabilizer.”

The green transition “will be accelerated after what's happening around the Gulf because countries will say ‘we must be less dependent on something that can be so unstable,’” he added. “We fully support that transition.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to give up as much as $4 billion worth of free allowances to oil refiners and other industrial polluters to help them comply with greenhouse gas limits imposed by the state’s 13-year-old carbon market, called Cap-and-Invest. 

Economists and environmentalists said the change may lead to higher emissions and lower prices on the carbon market, which is key to meeting a state mandate to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. That would slash billions of dollars in revenues that pay for other initiatives to reduce emissions as well as for safe drinking water, affordable housing and wildfire resilience programs. 

But in the wake of Iran war-fueled inflation, New York, Massachusetts and other states have also tempered their climate ambitions. 

“It's no secret that climate policy is at a crossroads, under attack by an openly hostile and well-funded opposition and upended by global economic upheaval,” CARB Chair Lauren Sanchez said Thursday. “Moving forward shows that we can be responsive to affordability concerns.”

More than 200 people queued up to speak at the two-day meeting, underscoring divisions over the future of California’s landmark climate policy, which has influenced other states and nations’ actions to reduce carbon emissions. 

Representatives of petroleum companies, utilities and other industries spoke in support of the carbon market revision, while environmentalists denounced it as a “major handout to Big Oil.”  The mayors of Los Angeles and San Francisco opposed the amendments as regional transportation and air quality officials expressed worries that the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in carbon market revenues for public transit and zero-emission programs would increase pollution in low-income communities. 

“Eliminating these programs could impair our ability to build affordable housing and improve transit in San Francisco, which will help reduce GHG emissions,” said Silvia Solis Shaw on behalf of San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie. 

California sets an annual limit on industrial greenhouse gas emissions that account for about 80% of the state’s carbon pollution. The cap declines each year and oil refiners, cement manufacturers and other companies must acquire allowances, each equivalent to one metric ton of carbon dioxide, to cover their emissions. Polluters can either buy allowances at quarterly auctions or use free ones that CARB gives corporations as an incentive to remain in California. 

In January, CARB proposed further tightening emission limits by removing 118 million allowances from the market to keep the state on track to meet its 2030 targets. That meant oil refiners, for instance, would have to either further reduce emissions or likely pay more for allowances. As California’s already-high gasoline costs soared above $6 a gallon during the war, oil industry executives told officials that would further increase prices at the pump and prompt an exodus of refiners from the state. 

Some state Democratic legislators echoed those concerns and pressed CARB to make changes. The agency subsequently issued a revised proposal that offset the removal of the 118 million allowances with the creation of 118 million new free allowances worth $4 billion. Those allowances would be issued to oil companies and other industrial companies to pay for decarbonization projects through 2035. The amended rule also included an additional $800 million in support to help “ensure no additional cost passthrough at the pump.”

An analysis by economist Meredith Fowlie of the University of California at Berkeley found that “a qualifying refinery could receive free allowances well in excess of its GHG emissions.” That in turn could lead to a rise in emissions and lower carbon prices, she wrote. 

A report from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office concluded the additional allowances would “reduce certainty” that California would hit its 2030 emissions target.

CARB pushed back against those projections at the meeting. The change, said carbon market staffer Michael Turgeon, “doesn’t weaken the integrity of the program. It simply makes it more affordable.”

The Legislative Analyst report said the revision would halve annual auction revenues from about $4 billion on average to $2 billion. CARB executive Rajinder Sahota said Thursday that any revenue drop would be much smaller as only a certain percentage of free allowances would likely be used in any given year.

Under legislation enacted last year, $1 billion of yearly carbon market revenues must be reserved for California’s decades-delayed high-speed rail project. 

An analysis by economists at the University of California at Santa Barbara concluded there could be significantly less money left over to finance many of the climate programs currently funded by the carbon market. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Treasury market rally trimmed yields across maturities by nine to 12 basis points since last Friday’s close. Through May 27, the Bloomberg Treasury Index gained 0.7% on the week, on course for its best weekly performance since Feb. 27, the day before the war started. Two- to 10-year yields declined to weekly lows Friday after US President Donald Trump said a meeting “to make a final determination” on Iran was under way. 

The gains partly eroded after the New York Times reported that Trump left the meeting without a decision having been made. 

“It’s pretty evident they’re going to get a deal done sometime in the next week or so,” Raghav Datla, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Global Markets, said. “That builds confidence that you might not see a second-order impact from these oil prices into core inflation.”

Earlier in the session, the 30-year yield touched 4.96%, the lowest level since May 11. 

The weekly moves represent a turnaround from earlier this month, when global bonds tumbled on concern about the war’s impact on the world’s economy. The moves were driven in large measure by elevated oil prices because of a war-related supply shock. Traders, who before March were pricing in two Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year, wagered on an increase by mid-2027. 

Less than two weeks ago, the US government’s longest bond yield had reached almost 5.20%, the highest level since 2007. Shorter-maturity Treasury yields reached their highest levels since early 2025 earlier this month.

Over the past week, however, tentative indications that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement that would restore Middle East supply sent benchmark oil prices to the lowest level in six weeks, and Treasury yields retreated.

Residual Risk

“There’s still some residual rate-hike pricing risk, but once a deal is finalized, most of that will be priced out,” Datla said, referring to the roughly 15 basis points of Fed tightening priced into swap contracts linked to the Fed’s policy rate at the end of the year. 

While the market will have difficulty resuming pricing in rate cuts for this year, it has scope to wager on them during the next two years, he said. That’s based not only on oil prices, but also on actual inflation data including the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures released earlier this week for April.

While the 3.8% year-on-year increase in PCE prices was the highest since 2023 and has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target since 2021, the monthly increases were smaller than economists estimated.

This week’s gains for Treasuries also had technical underpinnings. Friday was the last day of the month, in which $324 billion of notes and bonds were sold. Those joined the Bloomberg Treasury Index at 4 p.m. New York time, and index funds and other passive investors conventionally buy them on or around that time in order to match the performance of the index.

Month-end index additions are larger in February, May, August and November, when Treasury auctions are biggest. About $240 billion of notes and bonds were added to the index at the end of March and April.

Index Rebalancing

The index rebalancing spurred heavy trading in Treasury futures, where aggregate volumes for the main contracts in the 10-minute period around it were at least double 20-day average levels. Prices rose to levels short of their intraday highs. 

The weekly advance may fully offset the market’s losses through the end of last week, leaving it close to flat on the month. 

Higher Treasury yields and anticipation of Fed interest-rate increases also are unfolding amid a pattern of upside surprises by US economic activity gauges and record highs for US stocks — including on Friday, suggesting it may take more than lower oil prices to sustain the bond market rally. 

“The US economy remains broadly resilient and supply side price pressures are still working through the inflation data,” Monty Gandhi, an interest-rate strategist at SMBC Group, said in a report. “As a result, we think it will be difficult for a sustained rally in yields without either a concrete geopolitical resolution or signs of labor market deterioration.”

The US Labor Department is slated to release May data on June 5. Economists estimate it will show a slowdown in job creation, to 85,000 new nonfarm jobs from 115,000 in April.

(Adds month-end index activity and updates yield levels.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In the week ended May 26, money managers switched to a net-short position of 11,316, across seven US benchmark Henry Hub contracts, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In the prior week, investors had a net-long position of 15,270. 

Short-only positions rose 19,639 lots to 437,598, the highest in more than two years, according to the data. 

Prices for benchmark Henry Hub gas have dropped about 10% this year as mild weather dented demand for the heating and power-plant fuel. Robust US production has also pushed inventories above historical averages.

US natural gas has been an outlier in global energy markets this year. While the Iran war has driven up prices for other fuels and oil, America has been flooded with gas supplies. Amid higher crude prices, Texas drillers have increased their oil output, but that’s also meant more gas production as a byproduct. Supplies have been so plentiful in West Texas that local prices have been trading in negative territory. 

Still, in recent days, benchmark US gas prices jumped after a government report showed domestic stockpiles last week increased by a smaller amount than analysts expected. That forced some hedge funds to unwind short positions, pushing prices higher. July gas futures climbed about 10% for the week. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell nearly 2% to settle around $87 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent settled near $92.

President Donald Trump said he will make a “final determination” on a preliminary deal to prolong the truce with Iran. His statement came after uncertainty over the status of an agreement that would extend the current truce by 60 days, during which Iran and the US would discuss the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, a person with knowledge of the matter said. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no final understanding has been reached yet. Message exchanges between the Iran and the US are continuing, spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

Crude has weakened in May on speculation some form of accord would be reached, although the warring parties have hailed progress before, only for the stalemate to drag on. 

Several vessels transiting through the strait have been attacked in recent days, underscoring the “very real” risks that remain for shipowners in the Persian Gulf whether or not a peace accord is signed, Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth said. 

“There still has been kinetic activity this week, some of which has been reported in the media — some of which has not,” Wirth said on Bloomberg TV on Friday. “We see risks very real still in that environment.” 

But Wirth added that oil traders seem to be betting that the conflict is nearing a resolution, keeping price gains muted.

“The psychology of the market has been this is closer to the end rather than beginning,” he said.

While the effective closure of Hormuz — which is subject to blockades by Washington and Tehran — has curbed global energy supplies, a range of solutions, from bumper US exports, a slowdown in Chinese imports and emergency reserve releases have quelled the worst of the market impact. 

Roughly one-quarter of the non-Iranian large oil tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf at the outbreak of the Iran war have managed to slip out.

At this stage, it remains unclear how sticking points in the negotiations — including the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, Iran retaining control over Hormuz, and sanctions relief — stand to be addressed. The waterway’s reopening and Iran turning over highly enriched uranium were Trump’s “red lines” necessary for any pact, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Even if a truce extension is agreed, multiple hurdles stand to impede the resumption of oil flows. Among them, mines in the Hormuz waterway must be removed, shut-in fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired. In addition, vessels would take weeks to reach importing nations.

“Iran will have to abide by all agreements, and that in itself is a large ask for the market,” said Dennis Kissler, head of energy trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “While a pickup in the Strait of Hormuz traffic is promising, we will need to see that stabilize for a while to justify WTI prices in the mid- to low-$80/bbl area.”

Data this week highlighted growing tightness in the US as the crisis dragged on. Among the figures, distillate stockpiles sank to the lowest in more than two decades, and holdings of crude at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub fell for a fifth week to 23 million barrels, pushing them closer to the 20-million-barrel mark that’s generally seen as the minimum operating level.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The deal for Prevalon, a joint venture of Mitsubishi Power Americas and EES, will be paid with a mix of cash and stock, Fremont, California-based Nextpower said Thursday in a statement. 

“It’s not just bringing us into the battery-energy-storage business, this brings us into the data-center power-supply business,” Nextpower Chief Executive Officer Dan Shugar said of the transaction in an interview.

Nextpower stock climbed as much as 19% to touch $163.13, the highest since it began trading in February 2023.  

“The acquisition moves Nextpower beyond solar trackers toward an integrated generate, store, control and operate platform, with AI data-center storage as the strategic prize,” KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Sophie Karp wrote in a research note. 

The purchase adds to a flurry of deals as power companies reposition themselves to meet a surge in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence. Last week, NextEra Energy Inc. agreed to pay about $67 billion in stock for Dominion Energy Inc., the industry’s largest-ever acquisition. Overall, electricity demand from data centers will likely more than double over the next decade, according to BloombergNEF. 

Nextpower said the purchase of Prevalon will allow it to raise its 2027 revenue guidance to a range of $4 billion to $4.4 billion from $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. It also boosted its 2027 adjusted profit range to about $845 million to $930 million from $825 million to $900 million. 

Nextpower has made a string of acquisitions to expand beyond solar trackers into clean-power system-development services, including electrical wiring and power conversion. The move into energy storage comes as data-center developers deploy batteries to bring facilities online faster and handle rapidly fluctuating power needs. The global battery market is forecast to grow to 10 times its 2025 size by the end of 2036, according to BNEF. 

Prevalon has more than six gigawatt-hours of battery storage installed and 1.3 gigawatts of supply contracts for AI and data-center deployments, Shugar said. Nextpower plans to operate the business as a wholly owned subsidiary, he said.

“While Prevalon serves traditional utility-scale needs such as renewable-energy shifting, frequency regulation and grid stabilization, it is uniquely positioned to serve the AI and hyperscaler data-center market,” TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne said in a note. 

(Updates with share move in the first paragraph, analyst quote in the fifth and last paragraphs.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Energeticky a Prumyslovy Holding AS, or EPH, owns about 4.2% of TotalEnergies after receiving almost €7.5 billion ($8.8 billion) of share in exchange for a 50% stake in gas and biomass power stations and battery projects in Italy, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and France. Kretinsky owns 50% plus one share in EPH.

“You never know what opportunities one situation may open up,” Kretinsky said on the Everything Starts Today podcast released on Thursday. “The benefit of this position is that it is actually scalable.” 

The self-proclaimed francophile — whose net worth is $12.5 billion — built a conglomerate across industries ranging from electricity generation to natural gas transmission and storage. Kretinsky’s wealth stemmed from a bet more than a decade ago that it would take Europe longer to wean itself off fossil fuels than its green strategy envisaged.

EPH, which is barred from selling the TotalEnergies shares for 12 months under the terms of the agreement, could add to its stake, according to Kretinsky, who said he was comfortable with the French company’s risk profile.

“Given that we currently own a stake of less than 5%, if we felt the need to further diversify, we could continue increasing our stake in Total,” he said on the podcast. “Total is particularly attractive in this respect because its market cap is enormous, which means you can allocate additional value there.”

EPH’s stake could also climb if it doesn’t participate in buybacks undertaken by TotalEnergies, according to Kretinsky.

“My basic idea is that we should be strategically diversified,” he said. “Our current position already has very significant value. Of course, it is still only a certain percentage of the whole company, but it’s becoming interesting.”

See Also: Billionaire Kretinsky Sets Sights Beyond Europe With Total Deal

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The plan sets guidelines for the issuance of green, social and sustainability financing instruments, including loans and bonds, to fund new and existing projects with environmental and social benefits, the National Treasury said in a report published on its website. It also outlines criteria on which financing decisions will be made.

Among projects that would be considered are hydrogen manufacturing, hydropower, geothermal electricity and bioenergy, the framework states. Money may also be raised for electricity transmission, distribution networks for renewable and low-carbon gases, and the development of energy-efficient technologies for industries and households.

“This initiative aims to align the country’s funding strategy with its sustainability objectives, attracting sustainable finance to support South Africa’s decarbonization commitments in a just and inclusive manner,” the Treasury said in the document.

South Africa has been criticized for its slow pace in seeking funding from investors keen to back sustainable and climate-friendly development even as it plans significant expenditure on infrastructure and needs to adapt from its heavy reliance on coal to comply with global climate-change commitments. The framework comes more than five years after the government first said it would outline plans for green bonds.

Meeting South Africa’s environmental targets under international accords including the Paris Agreement on climate change will cost about 250 billion rand for implementation and 3.47 trillion rand for mitigation strategies between 2026 and 2035, the framework states. That’s an average of 372 billion rand a year.

The country aims to raise about 160 billion rand a year from international climate-finance institutions by 2030, with the remainder coming from private-sector lenders and spending.

While the framework aims to address South Africa’s key sustainability challenges, achieving the full environmental benefits of green projects under the program may be constrained by the country’s high reliance on coal for electricity generation, S&P Global ratings said in an assessment published together with the plan.

“The framework’s financing of projects linked to healthcare, education, employment, and food security will help tackle social challenges and strengthen South Africa’s development path,” S&P said. Still, the “broad scope, typical for a sovereign issuer, creates uncertainty regarding future environmental, social, and climate risks and benefits of specific projects,” it added.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Indian Gas Exchange, the country’s largest gas-trading platform, sold 4.5 trillion British Thermal Units to power firms from April 1 through May 26, according to data shared by the company. That’s an almost 350% jump from the same period a year earlier. 

Large swathes of India have suffered from blistering heat waves this summer, with sweltering temperatures around-the-clock pushing peak electricity demand to new highs during the days and nights.

The nation has used gas-fired power capacity to help meet the demand surge during the hot nights, although the war in Iran has pushed up prices and made the fuel harder to buy than in previous years. That has resulted in supply shortfalls of as much as 5 gigawatts during peak night-time hours, data from Grid Controller of India show.

Natural gas still accounts for just 2% of India’s electricity mix. The country has about 20 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity, which is mostly used as a reserve to meet demand surges in the evenings. This summer, less than half that capacity has been utilized due to shortages of gas.

The entire volume sold to the power sector this summer is regasified liquefied natural gas, said Rajesh Kumar Mediratta, the chief executive officer of the exchange. Companies paid an average 1,769 rupees ($18.55) per million Btu to buy the fuel from the bourse during the April-May period, about 64% more than a year earlier, IGX data show.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At a forum over the weekend in Jakarta, some of the country’s best-known economists openly questioned the credibility of the most recent data, which showed an unexpected 5.6% jump in gross domestic product, and warned it overstates the health of the economy. The event, hosted by Alliance of Indonesian Economists, was highly unusual in Indonesia, where economists rarely hold public press briefings to dispute data. 

The discussion highlighted widening unease among academics and technocrats, as well as within banking and finance, over the reliability of official statistics, as well as broader concerns about policymaking under Prabowo’s administration.

The Government Communications Agency on Friday defended the data and the statistics office, officially known as Badan Pusat Statistik, and disputed the economists’ interpretations of the figures.

“Scrutiny is welcome, but it should be based on careful reading of data,” GCA said in an emailed response to questions. The first quarter data “is supported by a broader set of real-sector signals.”

Questions about the data follow other moves by Prabowo that have eroded investor confidence and cast doubt on guardrails put in place since the Asian Financial Crisis. 

The former general, who came to power in October 2024, has sought to take control of the country’s natural resources, created a sovereign wealth fund that reports directly to him and ousted officials seen as more fiscally conservative and investor-friendly. 

Last week, Prabowo stunned traders and investors with an announcement that the wealth fund, Danantara, would take over exports of the country’s main commodities. 

“In an era full of uncertainty like today, investors need certainty — including certainty about the accuracy of government data,” Wijayanto Samirin, a former adviser to senior government officials and academic, said during the economists’ forum. “Without it, trust will disappear, and economic crises often emerge because trust disappears.”

Several economists, publicly and privately, have questioned the accuracy of the recent official data. Two from the University of Indonesia published a report that called the latest GDP figures “questionable as a measure of economic health.”

The authors, Mohammad Ikhsan and Teuku Riefky, point to several anomalies in the data, leading on a disconnect between electricity use and manufacturing. They also flagged a 25-fold jump in the value of inventories, which “almost certainly does not reflect rational economic behavior.”

“If the electricity supply contracted, such manufacturing growth is difficult to justify on physical grounds,” they wrote, referring to the 1% decline in power activity compared to a 5% jump in manufacturing. “Logically, both cannot be correct.” The economists estimate 4.6% to 4.9% is “more realistic” headline GDP figure. 

The GCA said this interpretation is “too mechanical,” citing both a base effect year-on-year and increasing industrial reliance on independent power supplies not captured by official statistics. 

The report also warned that temporary factors such as Eid-related spending and government cash disbursements, as well as a “questionable” inventory adjustment may have inflated the headline figure, masking what it described as a weakening structural growth trend since 2022-2023.

The GCA attributed the surge in inventories to front-loading behavior. “Firms often adjust production and inventory positions ahead of major policy or tariff changes,” it said, an apparent reference to US tariffs. 

This is the second time in less than a year that official Indonesia statistics have raised doubts. Last August, after quarterly data showed the country grew the fastest in two years, the statistics office invited a number of local economists to provide clarification on several components of the data, according to several attendees, who asked not to be identified as the meeting wasn’t public. 

Of particular focus in that meeting was a sharp rise in gross fixed capital formation — basically, public and private investment in physical assets like infrastructure and equipment. The economists said the meeting didn’t fully alleviate their concerns since only the government had access to the relevant data. 

“It is normal and healthy for statistical authorities to engage with economists, analysts, and market participants to explain methodology and clarify unusual movements in the data.,” the GCA said. The BPS didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

To be sure, economists and market watchers have voiced doubted over the reliability of Indonesia’s official data for years as headline growth has consistently come in around 5%, outside of the pandemic. 

“That stability has long struck us as implausible, given Indonesia’s exposure to swings in global demand, commodity prices and policy cycles,” Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note earlier this month. 

“Given the government’s shift towards more populist and interventionist policymaking, and its willingness to undermine the guardrails of macro orthodoxy under President Prabowo, we are cautious about taking the strong first quarter figures at face value,” Leather wrote in the note. 

The International Monetary Fund, when asked for comment, said “Indonesia’s GDP statistics and data provision are broadly adequate for surveillance. As in many countries, there remains room for improvement.”

Still, economists interviewed by Bloomberg said they are now turning to a much broader set of indicators — including vehicle sales, electricity consumption, tax receipts, credit growth and corporate revenues — to get a clearer reading on the economy.

The shift has been driven partly by Indonesia’s push to expand domestic nickel processing and build an electric-vehicle supply chain — a strategy that is far more capital- and energy-intensive than traditional household-driven growth.

Some analysts argue that means growth is becoming less broad-based and increasingly concentrated in commodity processing, downstream industries and government-backed projects. 

A recent report by Indonesia’s statistics agency showed the country’s middle class has steadily shrunk since the pandemic, falling in 2024 to almost 48 million people, or about 17% of the population, from 57 million, or about 21%, in 2019.

Analysts say the trend reinforces concerns that headline growth is masking weaker purchasing power and rising economic insecurity among households that traditionally powered Indonesia’s consumer economy.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Annual emissions in the year to December fell to 458.9 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with reductions spurred by lower rates of pollution from electricity generation, curbs on natural gas venting and a cleaner transportation sector, Australia’s government said Friday in a quarterly report.

Record wind and large-scale solar generation, along with a surge in battery uptake, has helped make Australia’s main electricity grid the cleanest on record. Electricity emissions were about 26% lower than 2005 levels and nearly 4% below the previous year, according to the report.

The decline in annual emissions is “further proof that what’s better for the planet is better for your pocket — more of the cheapest form of new energy, more storage to back it up, and lower emissions as a result,” Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said in the statement.

Despite a record renewables buildout, Australia has previously warned it is at risk of missing a pledge to reduce emissions to between 62% and 70% of 2005 levels by 2035 without deeper cuts to pollution. To stay on track for net zero by 2050, the country needs to cut emissions by 71% by 2035, according to BloombergNEF.

Lower annual emissions across transport, electricity and stationary energy were partially offset by increased pollution from industrial processes, mainly due to higher steel production, the report said. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“We’re always looking for expansion opportunities in LNG and gas chemicals,” Kenichi Hori told Bloomberg News, adding that Mitsui would consider taking equity stakes or securing offtake agreements.

Companies seeking clean energy to power artificial intelligence infrastructure are creating “big additional demand” for LNG, Hori added.

Mitsui is one of Japan’s “big five” trading houses, a Warren Buffett-backed group that also includes Mitsubishi Corp., Sumitomo Corp., Itochu Corp. and Marubeni Corp. With sprawling global energy and metals businesses, the companies have benefited from strong raw material prices and the weaker yen.

Mitsui is seeking new assets as part of a new mid-term strategy announced earlier this month, which will see some capital allocated to the energy sector.

“We are not placing constraints on ourselves,” Hori said. “Given our strong balance sheet, there is room to increase leverage.”

Mitsui already has an interest in the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Ruwais LNG export facility — which is currently under construction — and would consider further investment in the Middle East, Hori said. Asked about the effects of the Iran war, which has severely curtailed oil and gas flows for the last three months, he said the region “will remain the major supply source of energy. That won’t change.”

Diversification, however, is also key to the company’s strategy. Mitsui participates in Australia’s North West Shelf project alongside companies including Woodside Energy Group Ltd., and last year signed a long-term supply deal with Venture Global Inc., part of a push by Japanese companies to procure more LNG from the US.

The growth of AI and the data centers behind the technology creates a range of opportunities, not least the need for clean, affordable and sustainable energy, Hori said.

“Without securing energy, it is impossible to implement solutions,” he said, adding that one possible approach could involve a consolidated entity focused on the entire supply chain for data centers. He did not elaborate on such an entity.

(Updates to add video. An earlier version removed reference to establishment of a new entity in final paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Through its climate-technology subsidiary, A Healthier Earth, Pure DC says the credits will help expand a market viewed as critical to corporate efforts to limit carbon pollution. The initiative comes as many data centers continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet soaring power demand, driving up greenhouse gas emissions. 

For companies seeking a way to offset the ballooning carbon emissions from running AI workloads, carbon-removal credits represent an essential tool, Alastair Collier, the firm’s chief research and development officer, said in an interview. 

The challenge is that “credits aren’t available and the scale of the market doesn’t exist to satiate demand,” he said.

Pure DC is among companies betting on a quick uptake of AI applications in Europe, where investors and consumers are more concerned with climate goals than in the US. The Oaktree-backed firm last year sought to raise cash from other investors for an implied valuation of as much as £5 billion ($6.7 billion). The goal is to build large-scale AI campuses across Europe and the UK targeting a total capacity of 3 gigawatts that it says could be rented out to technology firms. 

Collier says that by the end of 2029, Pure DC’s annual offering of carbon-removal credits will be as high as 100,000, which is equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions of roughly 23,000 passenger cars. The company will also sell credits from its own carbon projects, as well as those created by its partners, he said.

The massive build-out of energy-hungry AI data centers makes them among the few sectors set to see a rise in emissions into 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s in part as they continue to rely on natural gas, it said. Addressing this uptick in emissions means carbon removal will be a necessary component of the data-center boom, Collier said.

Microsoft Corp. has long stood out as by far the largest investor in carbon-removal credits. However, the company has shown signs of adjusting its climate commitments in its efforts to keep up in the AI race, raising concerns about demand for such credits.

Pure DC said combining data-center development with verified carbon-removal services creates “a critical commercial differentiator” that will appeal to hyperscaler customers and global corporates seeking to address residual emissions.

A Healthier Earth, the Pure DC subsidiary, is developing a carbon project in the UK county of Wiltshire. Credits generated will each represent 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide that’s been taken out of the atmosphere via biochar, which is what’s left after heating biomass and other agricultural waste. Biochar, though still a niche corner of the cabon-offsets market, can store CO2 for hundreds of years.

The company aims to complete verification and first credit issuance from its biochar facility before the end of this year. It won’t use any of the credits generated from its biochar projects, or any co-developed projects, to offset its own emissions.

Pure DC has close ties with the UK government, and is currently constructing a data center in Ireland that’s designed to be self-sufficient. Collier worked for the National Grid before joining the firm. 

(Adds BNEF reference. A previous version corrected the final paragraph, to show that Collier worked for the National Grid.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A decision could be made soon, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The group had been building toward an 8 billion ringgit ($2 billion) offer for Kuala Lumpur-listed Yinson for about a year. 

Shares of Yinson tumbled as much as 8% on Thursday, the most in more than a year.

Yinson’s net income in the latest quarter plunged 65% from a year earlier to 228 million ringgit and revenue fell 19%. The company cited higher administrative expenses, impairment losses for renewables and green technologies and the absence of previous one-off gains from disposals. Founder Lim Han Weng said Yinson Production remains the group’s primary growth engine, with steady progress on projects under construction, including in Vietnam.

The Lim family may still pursue a transaction with firms other than Stonepeak, some of the people said, adding that no final decision has been made. 

Representatives for Stonepeak, the Lim family and Yinson declined to comment.

Bloomberg News reported last year that New York-based Stonepeak was teaming up with the Lim family, which established Yinson in the 1980s, for a buyout. Some local pension funds with shareholdings in Yinson were also part of the group, which was seeking to do the buyout via a scheme of arrangement. 

The Lim family owned 27.7% of Yinson at the end of April, the company’s website shows. After starting out as a transport and logistics firm, Yinson diversified into energy infrastructure, renewables and technology. 

(Updates with Yinson’s share move in third paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The warning underscores the challenges facing the UK government’s goal of largely decarbonizing the power system by 2030 to cut emissions and lower bills, even as major utilities continue to invest billions of pounds in both renewables and networks.

The firm with the most green power capacity in the UK had planned to generate 50 terawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually by the end of the decade, a target it has called “ambitious.” However, in its Thursday earnings statement SSE said that target is now unlikely to be achieved, while also pointing to delays affecting some UK onshore wind projects.

Grid capacity is emerging as one of the biggest obstacles to the energy transition. Significant investment is needed both to connect new wind farms and to expand the electricity network across the country. At the same time, local opposition to new infrastructure projects is creating further delays.

For example, SSE said approval for its Cambushinnie substation in Scotland was withdrawn following a legal challenge and will now be reconsidered later this summer.

The company also took a £155.8 million ($209 million) charge on two Scottish wind farms after delays connecting them to the electricity network pushed back construction timelines.

In another setback for clean energy ambitions, SSE said it had paused its standalone hydrogen production projects because of delays to government support for the technology. The company said it will instead focus on hydrogen infrastructure in the Humber region and future hydrogen-to-power projects.

The retreat from some renewable targets comes even as SSE continues to advance its offshore wind developments. Turbine installation at the 1.2-gigawatt Dogger Bank A offshore wind farm was completed earlier this year, with full commissioning expected later in 2026. The project’s second phase, Dogger Bank B, has already installed 20 turbines.

SSE also reported its lowest earnings since 2022. Adjusted operating profit fell 8% to £2.24 billion in the year through March, missing analyst estimates.

Profit at the company’s distribution business dropped 54% from a year earlier because the previous result benefited from a temporary inflation-linked increase in allowed revenues. 

SSE’s shares, which have gained 11% this year, traded little changed in London. 

(Updates with details, comments on 2030 goal)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least two cargoes scheduled to load next month from export terminals on the US Gulf Coast were canceled, and some buyers are in talks to terminate more shipments, according to people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to the media.

Asian LPG buyers were forced to scramble for more US supplies after the Iran war led to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off flows from the Persian Gulf. A key marker for gauging profits from exporting US gas to East Asia, known as the Far East Index-Mont Belvieu differential, has narrowed while shipping rates have jumped, wiping out healthy returns for traders.

India, a major importer that shipped 90% of its LPG from the Middle East prior to the war, turned to the US to partially replace lost supply, but inflated shipping rates have driven up costs and squeezed the nation’s state refiners. For Asian buyers, there’s little relief from the freight surge.

A cargo shipped to Asia through the Panama Canal can either queue for much longer than it did before the war, or pay eye-watering sums to jump the line. The alternative is the route via the Cape of Good Hope, which ties up vessels for longer periods, adding to a tanker squeeze and pushing up rates.

LPG is widely used as a cooking gas in domestic and commercial kitchens across India, or to make plastics in large factories in China.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The gas would come from the Ksi Lisims LNG project, a proposed C$10 billion ($7.2 billion) export plant in northwestern British Columbia, near the Alaska panhandle. 

Under the terms, Germany will agree to buy as much as 1 million metric tons a year of LNG from Canada for 20 years from the early 2030s, according to a statement from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. While those volumes represent only about 1% of Germany’s natural gas imports last year, it’s a significant step in how Europe’s largest economy manages its energy needs.

Bloomberg had reported the news of the deal ahead of the official statement. 

Recent high-level visits between Canada and Germany have accelerated as both countries look for broader realignments in the Trump era. The two sides have deepened cooperation on critical minerals, energy and defense.

The LNG deal is a step forward for the leaders of both countries, who have talked about energy deals but have been hamstrung by Canada’s failure to build the necessary infrastructure. Canada has enormous natural gas reserves, especially in the western provinces, but sends most of its production to the US through pipelines. The country didn’t have an LNG export facility on the west coast until about a year ago, with the startup of the first phase of LNG Canada, which is backed by Shell Plc and other energy companies.  

Germany, as Europe’s largest economy and its industrial powerhouse, has been buffeted by a series of energy crises — first with Russia’s assault on Ukraine and more recently by the war in the Middle East. The buyer of the gas would be SEFE, a former Gazprom PJSC unit nationalized by the German government after the invasion of Ukraine.

The super-chilled fuel currently accounts for about 13% of total gas imports into Germany, with roughly 94% sourced from the US, causing officials to push the state-owned companies to diversify their portfolios. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had set his sights on the Middle East earlier this year, before the Iran war laid bare the fragility of those flows.

Earlier this year, SEFE signed an 8-year LNG sales and purchase agreement with Argentina’s Southern Energy and also announced a tender for 10-year shipments, while Uniper signed agreements in India. 

The agreement “is a powerful and very positive symbol of German diversification away from Russia, and potentially from the US,” Susanne Nies, senior energy researcher at think tank Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, said in an email.

The group behind Ksi Lisims hasn’t yet reached a final investment decision to start construction. But the project has already received regulatory approval, and its investors want to build a facility capable of producing 12 million metric tons a year of LNG.

Ksi Lisims LNG is backed by Blackstone Inc.-funded Western LNG, as well as Rockies LNG Partners and the Nisga’a Nation, an Indigenous group that owns the development land. 

Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson, speaking in a recent interview with Bloomberg News, said European nations are actively looking for a reliable supply of gas to replace flows from Russia and the Middle East, which have been disrupted by war. 

Asked whether west coast LNG could be shipped from Canada to Europe through the Panama Canal, Hodgson said there are multiple options. 

“Some ships will go through Panama, some will go around, some they’ll just trade” to other buyers, in return for LNG cargoes that are closer to Europe, he said. 

European countries don’t want to become overly reliant on American gas, the minister said — partly because of trade tensions with the Trump administration but also because they want the security that comes with having a range of suppliers.

“We can be that alternative,” Hodgson said. “We can be that reliable supplier who will not use energy for coercion.” That could eventually take the form of LNG being shipped via Canada’s east coast or through Hudson Bay in the north, but in the near term, “we have huge increases in supply coming off the west coast, which are music to their ears.”

Ultimately, it makes sense for Canada and Europe to become closer energy partners at a time when global superpowers are looking to use trade as a tool of geopolitical coercion, Hodgson said.

“They’re looking around and saying, how do we create energy security?” he said. “Where can we find a supplier who shares our values? And they look around and they don’t see a lot of choices.”

(Updates with details of the LNG deal in then 3rd paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Investors in its second funding round included US Innovative Technology, General Innovation Capital Partners and Prelude Ventures, which led the company’s first major funding round in 2024, according to a statement Wednesday. New Jersey-based Thea was spun out of Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory in 2022.

Thea plans to begin construction next year on its Eos demonstration system, a nuclear fusion device known as a stellarator that uses powerful magnets to contain a superheated cloud of plasma within a donut-shaped device. The firm expects it to be complete in 2030. That would help validate the fusion concept, when small atoms within the plasma fuse into larger ones, releasing more energy than is needed to sustain the reaction. 

Fusion offers the potential for abundant clean energy when demand for power is climbing, driven by electrified homes, factories, and data centers. But the physics and engineering challenges are significant, and fusion remains unproven at commercial scale. 

Stellarators are considered especially difficult because they require a precise shape to contain the plasma. Chief Executive Officer Brian Berzin said the biggest challenge is completing the design, which should help ease the building process. That will be key to developing commercial versions, which he expects to see in service by about 2034.

“Power plants in this world are not built by Princeton PhDs. They’re built by trades,” he said in an interview. “That’s how utility-scale power gets built.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The growing focus on AI shows how quickly investors have shifted their attention from environmentally friendly technology to the expected massive power demands data centers will need.

Transition was founded around the peak of the clean tech investment wave, which in 2022 saw $128 billion pour into startups intent on mitigating climate-harming emissions or improving the health of the planet, according to BloombergNEF. Then artificial intelligence took off, and with it a surge in electric demand from data center projects.

“Data centers were already a big thing and now, with AI, it’s exploding,” said Transition partner David Helgason, a co-founder of game software developer Unity Technologies Inc. “How to fit more compute inside the materials we have, the energy we have, has become a critical thing.”

Climate tech investment is on track to reach $89 billion in 2026, according to BNEF, but with more of that money pouring into firms that support the AI infrastructure boom. Those include startups that provide clean, reliable power for data centers, like geothermal company Fervo Energy Co., which raised $1.89 billion in one of the year’s largest energy IPOs. 

For its part, Transition has backed firms that address bottlenecks in the data center buildout, Helgason said. Those include Olix Computing Ltd., a startup developing faster AI chips, and Invisix, a firm working on semiconductor metrology. 

Other climate-focused startups that don’t have an AI thesis haven’t fared so well. Those include the Transition-backed Running Tide, an ocean-based carbon removal startup that went bust in 2024, citing insufficient demand in the voluntary carbon market. 

“Running Tide still gives me PTSD to think about,” Helgason said. “It was very hard to sell into that market that kind of solution.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Umm Al Ashtan, which is managed by Adnoc Logistics & Services, reappeared northwest of Muscat, Oman, loaded with a cargo and listing its destination as India, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel stopped sending a signal around May 2, but at the time was empty and idling near the eastern entrance to Hormuz.

Satellite images show the ship appears to have loaded a cargo at Adnoc’s Das Island export plant, which is in the Persian Gulf behind Hormuz, during the period it wasn’t sending a signal. The pictures show that LNG tankers have been docking at Das Island, even though no vessels broadcast their positions near the plant.

The passage is part of a small flurry of energy flows transiting through Hormuz, with at least two non-Iranian oil supertankers exiting the Persian Gulf. The strait has remained virtually shut to LNG traffic since the war in Iran began in late February — choking about a fifth of global supply of the fuel.

Adnoc has exported three other shipments from the Persian Gulf on tankers that went dark when traversing the waterway. The last of those is currently docking in western India. Adnoc L&S said in an emailed statement that it does not comment on the position, movements, or routing of its vessels as a matter of policy.

Still, the transits represent only a fraction of pre-war volumes, when roughly three tankers carrying the super-chilled fuel exited Hormuz on a daily basis, mostly carrying fuel from bigger exporter Qatar.

(Updates with company’s comment in the fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Their Novandino Litio partnership set its latest projection after wrapping up design work on a project to introduce more direct ways to recover lithium from brine under the Atacama salt flat in northern Chile, environment manager Julio Garcia said. The venture plans to submit an environmental impact study to regulators in June.

After years of testing, Novandino is advancing toward commercial operations of technologies known in the industry as direct lithium extraction, or DLE. They are touted as cleaner and faster than the traditional evaporation method, in which vast quantities of salty water get vaporized in one of the driest places on Earth, raising concerns about microbial ecosystems.

But large-scale commercial success for direct extraction remains largely unproven. The Atacama is a high-stakes proving ground: if DLE works there, it helps de-risk the technology globally. One key facet of the new process is reinjection, in which lithium-depleted brine is returned to the salt flat to preserve hydrological and geochemical balance.

“It will be rigorously monitored to determine that it not only delivers the recovery rates it promises, but also does not generate any type of impact,” Garcia said in an interview from Novandino’s Santiago offices. 

The company has completed years of testing and engineering work on the technologies as it seeks to scale up output to meet demand for electric vehicles and large battery storage, while lowering environmental impacts. The approach combines nano-filtration and mechanical evaporation, along with other technologies already in use at its refinery.

Subject to environmental and other permitting, construction at the project dubbed Salar Futuro will start toward the end of the decade, with full implementation extending into the mid-2030s, Garcia said. Novandino has yet to make a final investment decision. Its previous guidance for the project cost was $2 billion-plus. 

The project would gradually replace part of the traditional evaporation system, while maintaining some ponds for potassium production and pre-concentration. Freshwater extraction would eventually end.

Novandino was formed late last year after lithium supplier SQM agreed to hand over a majority stake in its Chilean brine assets to state-owned Codelco in exchange for extending operations.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Driven by a persistent high-pressure heat dome, the scorching conditions raised average temperatures by 9C to 15C above the norm across the region. London hit a May record of 35C (95F) on Tuesday, according to the Met Office. 

The system pushed away cloud cover across a wide swath of the UK, leading to unusually sunny skies that intensified the heat while also boosting solar power generation. At its peak around midday on Sunday, solar met almost half of the UK’s electricity demand — the highest ever, according to NESO data. The surge in renewable output weighed on Europe’s power market, pushing hourly prices in France below zero around 1 p.m. Tuesday on Epex Spot. 

The searing early season heat is raising concerns about the impact of extreme weather as summer temperatures climb. Longer-term forecasts for the world’s fastest-warming continent show more heat waves in the months ahead, especially as high temperatures drain moisture from soils, meteorologists say. 

Month-ahead power prices jumped as much as 12% on Tuesday to the highest since March in EEX data on concerns about hydro availability and nuclear curtailments this summer as temperatures climb in key rivers used for cooling French reactors. 

In Italy, where air conditioning is more common, power demand is also rising, with consumption on Tuesday expected to reach 46 gigawatts, the highest since April 7, according to Terna.

While the clear skies under the heat dome have been a boon for solar, they’re having the opposite effect on wind speeds. Below-normal wind generation is forecast this week in Germany, Spain, Italy and France, where generation slumped to about 0.5 gigawatts around 1pm, according to RTE data. It has averaged 7.4 gigawatts so far this year. 

The heat is expected to peak Tuesday, before slowly easing toward the end of the week.

“A very hot start to the week,” said Greg Dewhurst, a meteorologist with the UK Met Office. “Record-breaking by day and by night, but a cooler end, especially by Sunday.”

Over the weekend, increased water demand triggered system failures that left about 800 households in Kent and Sussex without water or experiencing low pressure. A burst pipe in the Cotswold village of Bourton-on-the-Water also left nearly 200 households with low pressure. Thames Water is still investigating the cause, but heat waves can damage pipes as demand surges and high temperatures shrink and move soil near buried pipes.

France recorded its hottest May day on Monday, with temperatures in Paris forecast to reach 33C on Tuesday, according to Météo-France.

In France, the heat wave has been directly linked to at least two deaths, government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said Tuesday on TF1 television. At least five people died from drowning, while others died from heat-related causes during sporting events, she said. 

Daytime highs are forecast to reach as high as 39C in Languedoc in the south on Thursday, according to Météo-France. There are amber alerts in 13 departments in the west of the country.

“Before 1989, heat waves occurred on average once every five years in mainland France. Since 2000, at least one heat wave has been recorded every summer,” Météo-France said in a statement.

Amber warnings for high temperatures are in effect for western Spain, where temperatures could reach 38C on Tuesday. Similar alerts are also active for parts of the UK through Thursday, including London, east and southeast England, and the Midlands.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.