Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. — which together control about 90% of India’s fuel retail market — increased gasoline prices in New Delhi by 2.6% to 102.12 rupees ($1.07) a liter and for diesel by 2.9% to 95.20 rupees, according to company statements and website data. Prices have been raised across India, but vary from state to state due to local taxes.

The latest hike brings cumulative increases over the last 10 days to 7.8% for gasoline and 8.6% for diesel. The prices for the fuels are at the highest level since May 2022.

India deregulated retail fuel pricing years ago, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had effectively frozen pump prices for nearly four years. That policy became increasingly difficult to sustain as the Iran war sent crude prices sharply higher and the rupee weakened against the dollar, deepening losses for state-run refiners. 

A surge in fuel consumption during the agricultural harvest season and increasing disparities with non-state retailers have also strained inventories, adding to pressure to raise prices.

Even after the latest adjustment, government-owned retailers are still selling fueling below market-linked levels. Private operators such as Shell Plc are charging more than 116 rupees a liter for gasoline and more than 127 rupees for diesel at outlets across India.

“We expect more action to come by through another retail fuel price hike and a hike in liquefied petroleum gas prices,” said Radhika Piplani, economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. “The higher prices of fuel would have a bearing on inflation, which we expect to climb to 5.7% on year for the current financial year as against the Reserve Bank of India expectation of 4.6%,”she said.  

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet June 3-5 for an interest-rate decision. Sonal Varma, Nomura Holding Inc.’s chief economist for Asia ex-Japan, expects the central bank to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. The fuel price hikes will have a cumulative impact of 38 basis points on the consumer price index, she said. 

State-run companies are selling diesel to bulk users at premiums of at least 40 rupees a liter above retail pump prices, encouraging commercial buyers and motorists to shift purchases to subsidized retail stations. The surge in demand has led to dry-outs at several fuel stations and raised concerns over supply shortages.

Indian Oil said on Saturday that diesel sales at its retail outlets climbed 18% in the first 22 days of May from a year earlier, while gasoline sales rose 14%.

India has been among the economies hardest hit by the Middle East conflict because of its dependence on crude and fuel shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that has been mostly blocked since the war began in February.

The government this month introduced a series of measures aimed at containing the economic fallout as higher oil prices pressure the rupee and accelerate foreign investor withdrawals from local equities.

The shares of the state-run fuel retailers rose on Monday. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum all climbed as much as 4% or more.

(Updates throughout and adds analyst comments.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The fatal blast on Friday night occurred at the privately owned Liushenyu mine in the coal-belt region of Shanxi. The explosion, which left at least 82 dead, has triggered a vast rescue operation and is likely to prompt heightened scrutiny of mine safety that could threaten nationwide coal output in the near term.

Dalian futures soared as much as 8%, triggering spillover buying across the ferrous metals complex, including iron ore and steel contracts. Shares of coal miners in the northern province also rose, with Shanxi Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co. gaining as much as 9.2% and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co. as much as 7.4%, as traders bet that producers would benefit from higher prices.

The accident is the deadliest since 2009, and the country’s top leadership, led by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, has struck an uncompromising tone. According to state media, the central government has vowed to conduct “a rigorous and thorough investigation” into the causes of the accident and “impose severe penalties in accordance with laws and regulations.”

China has drastically reduced coal mining fatalities in recent years, making the latest explosion an even more serious incident. Though the mine based in Qinyuan county produced primarily coking coal for steelmaking, the blast will almost certainly trigger widespread safety inspections that could affect China’s much larger supplies of thermal coal, used in power generation. 

That would come at a challenging time for the thermal coal market. The Iran war has disrupted oil and gas shipments for the best part of three months. The country is heading into summer, a time when hotter weather drives up electricity consumption. And top exporter Indonesia has imposed constraints on supply.

Two thermal coal mines in Qinyuan, with a combined annual capacity of 1.8 million tons, have halted operations, according to Chinese consultancy Mysteel. Other major hubs, including Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Henan, have also launched inspections to prevent similar risks, such as gas leaks, following the accident. 

Still, operations outside Shanxi have so far largely remained at normal levels, Mysteel said. The province vies with Inner Mongolia as China’s largest producing region, accounting for about a quarter of national output.

“The supply tightness stemming from accident-related safety checks will not alter the broader goal of maintaining price stability,” the consultancy said in a note on Sunday.

Much depends on the duration of the government’s crackdown. The restrictions in Qinyuan have already directly impacted about 4% of China’s coking coal output, said Bu Tong, senior analyst at Horizon Insights based in Shanghai.

The broader risk is that mines may struggle to raise output in the near term to meet the expected increases in power demand, according to Chinese trading platform ocoal.com, which expects inspections to curb production for about one month without triggering widespread shutdowns.

The market is also watching for any impact on other sectors, including aluminum, where production costs can be highly sensitive to coal prices. Shanghai futures for alumina, an intermediate product, rose 0.9% before paring gains.

There’s also an expectation that safety inspections will extend beyond coal mines to other materials, including bauxite, said Peng Dinggui, an analyst with Zhongtai Futures Co.

(Updates with additional material from 10th paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Al Rayyan vessel was spotted north of Muscat, Oman, on Monday after passing Hormuz, and is heading to China, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The tanker stopped broadcasting a signal around May 22, when it had been idling near Qatar’s Ras Laffan export plant in the Persian Gulf. China was the biggest buyer of Qatari LNG last year.

Another vessel that loaded a Qatari shipment in late March, also transited the strait between Sunday and Monday, ship data showed. The Fuwairit stopped sending a signal on Sunday as it was partially through Hormuz and reappeared north of Muscat. It’s now heading to Pakistan, according to the data.

The Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually shut as peace negotiations between the US and Iran drag on, with both sides enforcing a de facto blockade on a waterway that normally handles about a fifth of global LNG supply. Vessels continue to face security threats and most of the transits through the chokepoint take place with transponders turned off to avoid detection.

LNG exporters in the Persian Gulf are stepping up efforts to ship out fuel that’s been trapped in the region since the war started in late February. A tanker loaded with a cargo at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Das Island export plant left Hormuz and was spotted heading to India over the weekend, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

Still, the successful transits represent only a fraction of pre-war trade flows. So far, only seven LNG shipments have been identified making it through since the US and Israel started strikes against Iran, compared to roughly three tankers exiting the waterway on a daily basis before the conflict began.

Al Rayyan is owned by Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Fuwairit is owned by a joint-venture including Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. Kawasai Kisen, Mitsui OSK and QatarEnergy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Companies requested approval for 51 gigawatts of new plants in the first quarter of the year, according to Global Energy Monitor, ahead of the record pace set in 2025 that saw 162 gigawatts of new proposals over the full year. Construction has boomed since a spate of power shortages in 2021 and 2022 as the government touts coal’s role as a reliable back-up to intermittent renewables.

Still, it’s unclear how long the government will let the spree continue. Beijing has said coal use will peak before 2030, and in April the environment ministry said it plans to “rationally control” coal-powered capacity. Of the new proposals in the first quarter, only 3 gigawatts have been approved, according to GEM.

Coal’s domestic abundance also relies on a hazardous mining industry that’s once again in the spotlight after the deadliest accident in years on Friday left at least 82 dead.

The onslaught of new coal plants in China comes even as a surge in clean energy reduces the need for fossil fuels. Thermal generation fell last year for the first time in a decade, although it’s since rebounded. Coal plant utilization fell from 56% to 52% in 2025, and the current batch of proposals risks intensifying that trend, tying up capital that might be better deployed elsewhere in the power system, said Christine Shearer, a researcher at GEM.

“The debate in China today is often less about whether renewables can grow quickly enough, and more about whether policymakers are willing to let coal’s role diminish as clean energy scales up,” Shearer said.

The new requests were spread evenly across the quarter, according to GEM. That indicates there wasn’t a sharp reaction to the global energy shock stemming from US and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February. 

“The latest crisis may strengthen the justification for continuing coal development, but the underlying expansion likely would have been happening anyway,” Shearer said. 

On the Wire

China’s sharper declines in housing transactions and investment in April — after a first-quarter rebound led by top-tier cities — show the road to stabilization will be bumpy, Bloomberg Economics said.

Companies across at least nine European countries bought carbon credits from Chinese projects that may never have existed, or for which there are serious concerns over verification, a Bloomberg investigation found.

China’s world-beating coal production has helped shield its economy from the worst of the Iran war shock. Now the deadliest mining disaster in years is raising uncomfortable questions about the cost of that drive.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, May 25

• Mysteel nickel, cobalt and recycling conference in Ningbo, day 1
• Public holiday in Hong Kong

Tuesday, May 26

• Mysteel nickel, cobalt and recycling conference in Ningbo, day 2

Wednesday, May 27

• China’s industrial profits for April, 09:30
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00

Thursday, May 28

• Nothing major scheduled

Friday, May 29

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30

Saturday, May 30

• Nothing major scheduled

Sunday, May 31

• China’s official PMIs for May, 09:30

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The privately owned Liushenyu mine, in the coal-belt region of Shanxi, produces mostly coking coal, meaning it supplies steelmakers, not power plants. A mid-sized outfit, it produced a fraction of the region’s annual total.

But Friday night’s blast, which left at least 82 dead, is already prompting a response which belies the scale of that operation.

The accident has triggered a vast rescue operation with hundreds of emergency workers, promises of an “uncompromising” investigation and an intervention from President Xi Jinping and senior officials. An immediate increase in scrutiny is almost certain — potentially threatening overall coal output in the near term, power generation and Beijing’s efforts to prioritize energy security.

Such high-profile mine incidents tend to trigger “nationwide safety inspections and heightened enforcement,” said David Fishman, a Shanghai-based principal at The Lantau Group. “This has been the pattern in the past and it’s reasonable to expect it again this time, because of the size of the accident and the immediate strong statements from the central government, including Xi himself.”

Regional authorities have already launched inspection and remediation efforts targeting risks at coal mines, including gas, water hazards and roof conditions, the Shanxi Daily reported on Sunday, citing the region’s Communist Party secretary. 

But a crackdown comes at a delicate time for China. Conflict in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas shipments for the best part of three months. The country, meanwhile, is heading into summer, a time when hotter weather drives up power consumption.

Any hit to coal mining output risks tightening supplies and pushing up energy prices or, in the worst-case scenario, forcing power curbs on the industry similar to those that rattled China’s economy in the past.

China started the year with coal stockpiles ample enough to be considered a glut. Nationwide coal output has fallen in eight of the past nine months, including in April, largely because of excess supply.

But that balance is at risk of shifting, as the Iran war lifts liquefied natural gas prices and reduces imports, piling fresh pressure on coal to continue carrying the bulk of the country’s thermal power generation.

For years, Xi’s government has doubled down on China’s abundant coal reserves to reduce reliance on imported energy. Coal output hit a record high last year — up 30% from a decade earlier — and remains the backbone of the country’s power system, underpinning a broader push to electrify everything from cars to industry. Domestic coal is even being tapped as a feedstock for production of chemicals, oil and gas.

But the drive for energy security and domestic production has forced mines to juggle competing priorities: maintaining breakneck supply growth while overstretching facilities and equipment. And that has extended beyond just thermal coal: The Beijing News reported the Liushenyu mine may have had too many workers underground, some without GPS devices specifically to aid rescuers.

“It’s possible that local officials may take the rap and if so, they may be publicly shamed and prosecuted,” said Rana Mitter, historian and ST Lee chair in US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. “But that will almost certainly be portrayed as the central government cracking down on lax behavior in the provinces — not any fundamental failing in the party’s governance.”

China has made strides when it comes to safety, and research shows a drop in the frequency and scale of coal mine accidents over the past decade or so.

Beijing has not, though, tackled structural problems, said Mary Gallagher, professor of global affairs at the University of Notre Dame — which include perverse incentives and a system that punishes local officials for problems, and not the central government.

When production is a priority, local governments can get caught between Beijing’s economic guidance and its safety standards.

“It’s a lose-lose situation,” Gallagher said. “It’s likely that in this case the local government was looking in the other direction as this mine clearly had safety issues before the accident.”

Granted, some aspects of the official response have improved. Back in 2021, a crackdown ahead of the Communist Party’s 100th anniversary curbed production to the point that it contributed to a coal shortage and nationwide power curtailments. 

Beijing has found less disruptive methods. Even after the last large disaster — a 2023 landslide at a mine in Inner Mongolia that led to 53 deaths — officials responded with a focus on accident prevention, not a hit to overall production. At the time, China’s output was rapidly increasing and the mine was restarted to help lift volumes.

It’s not yet clear that the Liushenyu mine will trigger a similarly contained response, even though it produces coking coal, and accounts for just 0.1% of Shanxi’s total annual coal production. It was penalized twice last year by local authorities for safety violations.

Several coal mines in Shanxi’s Qinyuan county, where the blast happened, have already been verbally instructed to suspend production, according to a report from consultancy MySteel. Twelve mines in the area — all but two of them coking coal assets — have halted output, risking tighter supply as local inventories are already in the low-to-mid range, the report said.

“We will strengthen oversight of mining operations, crack down on the fabrication or deletion of surveillance footage, and intensify inspection of concealed work areas,” Zhang Wenbo, director of the Emergency Management Bureau of Changzhi City said at a press conference on Saturday night.

The city’s mayor has apologized to the victims’ families and pledged to hold those responsible accountable for the accident.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Adnoc Logistics & Services’s Al Hamra tanker was spotted in the last day, loaded with a cargo and heading to western India, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel stopped sending a signal around April 19 — but at that time it was empty and idling near the eastern entrance of Hormuz.

The tanker loaded a cargo at Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Das Island export plant, which is in the Gulf behind Hormuz, during the period it wasn’t sending a signal, according to Kpler. Satellite images show that LNG tankers have been docking at Das Island, even though no tankers are broadcasting their positions near the plant.

Adnoc has exported two other shipments from the Gulf on tankers that went dark when traversing the waterway — one to Japan and the other to China.

Hormuz has remained virtually shut as the US and Iran struggle to reach a peace agreement, with both sides enforcing a de facto blockade on a waterway that normally handles about a fifth of global LNG supply. Vessels continue to face security threats, and most of the transits through Hormuz take place with transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Last year, India received more than half of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE, but those flows have essentially halted over the last few months, ship data shows. The decline in deliveries has forced India to procure more shipments from the expensive spot market, as well as curb supplies to some industries.

LNG tankers linked to Adnoc have stopped transmitting signals around Hormuz and within the Gulf, ship data shows, as a safety measure to protect the vessels and their crew. Adnoc didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment outside of regular business hours.

While the move suggests Gulf LNG exporters are finding ways to deliver fuel to customers, it still represents only a fraction of pre-war volumes, when roughly three tankers carrying the super-chilled fuel exited Hormuz on a daily basis.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Utility conglomerate Equatorial had planned to bid jointly with water treatment company Sabesp to become a strategic investor in Copasa, the people said. But Sabesp pulled out earlier this week, and after days of consideration, Equatorial is seriously considering giving up on participating, the people said. Equatorial will have a meeting on Monday to make a final decision. 

Companies have until May 25 to bid, according to the official privatization schedule.

Equatorial, which owns a stake in Sabesp, said it is “always attentive to opportunities in its areas of operation, but does not comment on potential business deals or acquisitions.”

Itausa SA, the Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC and Equipav Saneamento SA are planning to jointly bid in the privatization process for Copasa, people familiar with the matter said earlier today. The three firms are shareholders in Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes SA, which is going to participate in the bidding with a minor stake to avoid increasing its debt load, the people said.

Copasa’s formal name is Cia. de Saneamento de Minas Gerais. Under the privatization plan, Copasa’s control will be sold in a public offering in which Minas Gerais state could retain no more than 5% of the company, the company said in a filing. It now holds 50.03%, according to the firm’s website. Only the state will sell shares in the offering, and it may retain a so-called golden share, which grants its owner some veto rights. 

A “reference/strategic investor” will be able to buy 30% of the company before the public offering, with the possibility for the same investor to buy more shares in the market during the public offering with a maximum of 45% of voting rights, according to the filing. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Pentagon has bottled up roughly 130 proposed wind projects in an approval process that has stalled investments that would generate enough power to light 20 million US homes, according to a document prepared by the American Clean Power Association and seen by Bloomberg News.

Texas, which has worked to bolster renewable-energy development, is home to one-fourth of those projects worth some $11 billion, according to the document.

The Defense Department has stopped sending review determinations of wind projects to the Federal Aviation Administration, which must issue its own determinations before projects can go forward, according to the document. The bottleneck has meant that new onshore wind projects that haven’t already received the FAA’s Determination of No Hazard are unable to move forward.

The mounting delays suggest a new front has opened in the administration’s battle against wind projects, as President Donald Trump vows that new US turbines won’t be installed on his watch. 

The president has long criticized wind farms as bird-killing eyesores and famously battled turbines planned near one of his Scottish golf resorts. But the administration has moved more aggressively during Trump’s second term to thwart the ventures.

The Defense Department’s review process for wind farms is meant to ensure the projects don’t interfere with military operations. 

However, the power association in its document alleges the department’s actions amount to an across-the-board halt on projects, including those that present no identified military readiness or national security concerns.

Representatives of the Pentagon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Friday.

Trump administration officials have broadly criticized both wind and solar power, casting the emission-free renewables as reliant on government subsidies as well as additional infrastructure to compensate for the intermittent nature of their output. Even so, the US is facing a surge in electricity demand fed by the artificial intelligence boom. 

Facing that demand crunch, there are signs the administration is taking a more flexible approach to permitting some solar ventures, but that shift has not extended to wind. While high-profile solar projects are still being announced, wind farms especially those offshore, are facing legal challenges that have hobbled their development.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

It’s not unusual for an oil-price shock to become an existential crisis for some carriers. The Iran war is no different, with the forecast hit to profits so far in the billions of dollars. But there’s a stark difference between those that hedged well, those that hedged poorly and those that didn’t hedge at all.

While airlines including Ryanair Holdings Plc and Air France-KLM have reported that hedging offset some of the price increases, other carriers from US giant United Airlines Holdings Inc. to smaller AirAsia X Bhd are more exposed.

The sticking point for some airlines is that, just like buying home or auto insurance, hedging costs money. Airlines buy derivative contracts that will in theory rise in value, offsetting the increased price of jet fuel. Most of the time, that money goes down the drain when the market is calm, just like a homeowner’s fire insurance. For an industry that often runs on relatively thin margins, that extra cost counts.

It’s only when supply is squeezed and prices shoot upward that the hedges pay off. Like now, as the war in Iran has jet fuel now trading around $160 a barrel, more than 60% higher than before the war. 

While many European and Asian airlines use derivatives to lock in their jet fuel costs, peers in the US have been historically reticent to do so. The level of coverage typically varies among carriers, ranging at the end of last year from 30% to 80% and potentially even higher. Also, the instruments they use for the hedge make a huge difference in how well-protected they are.

“We continue to be well-hedged for the rest of the year,” Luis Gallego, chief executive of International Consolidated Airlines Group, which includes British Airways and Iberia, said on a recent earnings call. “This allows us to protect customers to some extent from the volatility and allows us to take, considered decisions on pricing and capacity.” 

So far, the fuel crunch hasn’t been as bad as feared. That’s in part because refineries, particularly in the US, have ramped up output and shipped record volumes overseas, helping fill the supply gap from the Middle East. But while there may be enough barrels to go around, they don’t come cheap. 

Ryanair said last week that it currently holds jet fuel and carbon derivatives contracts worth €2.1 billion ($2.4 billion) that are partly a result of a hedging program that locked in 80% of its fuel needs at $67 a barrel. Air France-KLM said late last month that while its fuel bill is likely to rise by $2.4 billion this year at current prices, that’s expected to be about $1.5 billion lower than it would otherwise have been. 

The amount of money on the table is enormous. Facing mountainous fuel bills, carriers are passing on higher costs to consumers. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said in late March that hedges on 30% of its fuel haven’t been enough to cover rising costs. The carrier imposed fuel surcharges, some of which have been partly rolled back.

On the other end of the spectrum is AirAsia, which doesn’t hedge. It’s shares have fallen 42% since the war began, the worst-performing member of the Bloomberg World Airlines Large, Mid & Small Cap Index.

Brent Hedging

Some in Europe and Asia hedge using Brent crude oil as a proxy for jet fuel. Typically, oil and its byproducts move largely in tandem as long as the market is relatively balanced between supply and demand. 

Brent crude is a market full of buyers and sellers on an exchange — it’s liquid, in market parlance — reducing the costs related to hedging. Hedging using gasoil or even jet fuel itself, sometimes in over-the-counter markets that are far less liquid, tends to cost more.

The problem is when there’s a shock. In March and April, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off supply of jet fuel to the market from Middle East refineries, as well as the types crude oil popular with Asian refiners. That forced some to reduce operating rates, further curbing fuel supply. 

“The real killer was crack spreads,” said Zameer Yusof, head of clean petroleum products analytics at Kpler. “Brent crude hedging wouldn’t have protected you from Singapore jet fuel margins blowing out past $100 a barrel — and that’s where Asian carriers’ exposure was concentrated.”

Since jet fuel is a relatively small market, the supply crunch drove prices up as much as 150% in Singapore, for example, compared with the 63% rally in Brent crude futures. As that gap, known as the crack spread, blew out, the gains on the crude contracts bought as a hedge failed to keep pace with the higher physical jet fuel prices that the airlines were having to pay every day.

“If they hedge Brent, they’re not hedging jet fuel,” Michael Leskinen, Executive VP and CFO at United Airlines, said in an earnings call last month, referring to non-US carriers. “The biggest portion of the move in jet fuel has been crack spreads. So I think this experience has proven once again that hedging is a poor policy.”

The crisis has already claimed Spirit Airlines, which wound down operations due to the soaring prices after a government bailout fell through. It might not be the last one, with Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warning there may be more corporate “casualties” to come among European airlines if the war continues. 

For Southwest Airlines Co., the last major US airline to buy protection, it’s the first fuel crunch they’ve entered into without a hedge for decades. The carrier ended its hedging program last year after deciding that it was too costly to run over the long term.

Southwest said the policy, which began in the 1990s, saved it over $3.5 billion from 1998 to 2008 but that higher levels of market volatility in general meant that the cost of doing so no longer outweighed the benefit. 

“Hedging had become very expensive,” Chief Executive Officer Bob Jordan said on an earnings call late last month. “You can’t predict an extraordinary circumstance like a war. If we all could, you’d hedge and then you wouldn’t, and it’s unreasonable to think you could do something like that.”

Delta’s Refinery

To be sure, one airline without a hedging program is arguably doing better than anyone else. Delta Air Lines is the best-performing carrier in the airline index, with shares up 13% since the war began. The edge: A refinery outside Philadelphia that it purchased 14 years ago. It supplies about 15% of Delta’s jet fuel needs while selling or swapping gasoline and diesel in the market.

“The refinery directly supplies a portion of our jet fuel needs, and its economics partially offset higher cracks, reducing the all-in price we pay for jet fuel,” Dan Janki, Delta’s chief operating officer, said in April on an earnings call, adding that that the refinery would save the company about $300 million on fuel in the second quarter.

If prices remain high and volatile, it’s likely to remain unattractive for many carriers to add to their hedges. 

“We’ll monitor the market closely, and when we see an opportunity, we include some new contracts,” Murat Seker, chairman of Turkish Airlines, said on the company’s most recent earnings call. “But overall, we are not continuing our regular hedge policy as the jet price and then the Brent price are very high.”

(Corrects speaker’s title in final paragraph of story published May 21)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate traded around $96 a barrel. Pakistan’s army chief, the favored interlocutor between Washington and Tehran, arrived in the Iranian capital amid signals of progress in talks to end the war and ultimately reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz to energy flows.

Iran said the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has made a more concerted push to end the war in recent days.

“Near term, oil futures seem to be pricing in some sort of an agreement as WTI prices pull back below $100/bbl,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “Still, traders are becoming more desensitized to the ongoing negotiation headlines.”

Conflicting statements on key issues left it unclear whether the two sides were any closer to a deal after renewed threats of escalation in recent days, buffeting oil prices as traders try to gauge when oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the strait will fully resume. 

The war and the curtailment in supplies have seen global stockpiles of crude oil and products being drawn down at a record pace, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Should no agreement emerge between the parties to the conflict, and should passage through the Strait of Hormuz therefore remain severely restricted for the time being, stock levels will come under increased scrutiny,” Commerzbank AG analysts including Barbara Lambrecht and Carsten Fritsch wrote in a note. 

The International Energy Agency remains ready to free further stockpiles if needed, after a first release in March, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Thursday.

Meanwhile, US consumers are continuing to feel the impact of energy inflation. Gasoline prices stood at $4.55 a gallon as of Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association — the highest ahead of Memorial Day in four years. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low as long-term inflation expectations worsened.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Pham Nhat Vuong contributed $900 million to VinFast Auto Ltd. and paid another $1.59 billion to acquire some of its research and development assets. The $2.5 billion bet more than doubles his disclosed lifetime contributions to the EV-maker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from corporate disclosures. 

Vuong established VinFast, which has yet to break even, in 2017 in a quest to build a global carmaker. The company lost nearly $4 billion last year as it opened plants in Indonesia and India as part of a pivot to Asia, following largely unsuccessful efforts to crack the US and European markets. On Thursday, the US state of North Carolina said it sued VinFast, alleging the company breached agreements tied to a planned electric vehicle factory.

The majority of Vuong’s wealth is derived from Vingroup JSC, his sprawling conglomerate that’s also VinFast’s parent. After rising eightfold last year, Vingroup’s shares have kept climbing through 2026, making him Southeast Asia’s richest person. He is worth about $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The long rally reflects Vingroup’s role as the No. 1 stock for foreign investors looking for exposure to Vietnam, but it also raises questions about the company’s valuation, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jason Low. It currently trades about 150 times price-to-earnings.

“The appreciation in Vingroup’s share price over the recent period primarily reflects the positive macroeconomic outlook of Vietnam,” a spokesperson for Vingroup said in response to emailed questions. “We aim to leverage favorable market conditions and capitalize on our market experience and execution capabilities to further strengthen and expand our businesses.”

Shares of Vingroup fell as much as 4.3% before trimming losses to close 1% lower on Friday. The stock has risen 968% since the start of 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To many in Vietnam, including senior government officials, Vuong and Vingroup are a testament to the country’s progression from a socialist economy to a market-oriented one. Vuong started in property development in the early 2000s after making a small fortune in Ukraine with an instant-noodle business. Today, Vingroup develops and operates residential and commercial real estate, resorts, hospitals and schools all over Vietnam, and has recently started ventures focused on robotics, films, steel and more.

VinFast is Vuong’s biggest bet to date. When its first car rolled off the assembly line, then-Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc declared it “a great day for Vietnam.”

The government’s increasing emphasis on the role of the private sector is also helping Vingroup’s share appreciation, a spokesperson for the company said.

Vuong has personally contributed at least one-quarter of the $17 billion of financing that’s been deployed since VinFast was founded. It sold nearly 197,000 cars last year and more than 400,000 electric scooters and bikes, posting $3.59 billion of revenue. Vingroup and other companies controlled by Vuong were responsible for 27% of that, down from 31% the prior year.

This month, VinFast said it will offload its Vietnam factories to a separate company, sell it and then enter into a manufacturing contract with it. The planned transaction will raise 13.3 trillion dong ($505 million) for VinFast.

Besides VinFast, the billionaire has recently expanded his corporate group into technology and energy — ventures that are potentially promising but very costly. They include green energy startup VinEnergo Energy JSC and high-speed rail company VinSpeed High-Speed Railway Investment and Development JSC.

Last year he gave some of his personal shareholdings in Vingroup to help establish and fund those two companies, regulatory filings show. It’s not clear what has happened to the shares, which currently would be worth nearly $6 billion. Vingroup said the companies can sell the shares as needed, or use them for capital-raising purposes. So far, they haven’t sold the stakes.

The market sees Vingroup “as a key beneficiary of the new pro-growth government,” said Anton Berg, an analyst at Sweden-based asset manager Coeli. The company can thank its size and ability to make huge investments, coupled with its low free float and retail investors chasing momentum trades, for its long stock rally, he said. 

But “the share price performance isn’t backed fundamentally,” he said. It’s “been a head-scratcher for the last two years.”

(Updates with Vingroup share price in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company is working with advisers to sell the interest in 1.2 gigawatts of solar and wind farms in France, Germany, Poland and Spain, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Any deal could fetch several hundred million euros, the people said.

A spokesperson for TotalEnergies declined to comment.

The potential sale is part of the oil major’s strategy of offloading 50% portions in renewable projects once they’re built to boost returns on such investments. While peers Shell Plc and BP Plc have pared back clean energy ambitions amid disappointing returns, TotalEnergies is pressing ahead with its diversification strategy in which power will represent about 20% of its energy output by 2030.

TotalEnergies last year agreed to sell a 50% stake in 1.4 gigawatts of North American solar assets in a deal valuing the portfolio at $1.25 billion including debt. It also sold 50% stakes in smaller portfolios of renewable assets in places including France, Greece and Portugal, and in some European electric car-charging networks.

This year, it agreed to sell a stake in a portfolio of German battery projects, and agreed with Abu Dhabi’s Masdar to pool onshore renewable energy assets in nine Asian countries that aren’t priority markets for the French firm.  

TotalEnergies plans to focus the growth of its power business in key markets such as Europe, the US and Brazil, as well as in countries where it produces oil and gas. It also wants to expand in select renewable markets, such as India and South Africa.

The French company bought German renewable project developer VSB Group last year, and completed the acquisition of a stake in European gas-fired power and biomass plants last month. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The vote will be held Oct. 19 and is a response to a bid by separatist activists to break away from Canada.

A group called Stay Free Alberta tried to force a referendum on secession, using a provincial law that allows citizens to petition the government for one. But last week, an Alberta court blocked that effort, finding the government failed to meet its duty to consult with Indigenous peoples on a major constitutional change. 

Instead, Smith’s government will call a new vote with the question: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

Smith said in a televised address to the province that her position and that of her United Conservative Party is to remain in Canada, but she was “deeply troubled by an erroneous court decision that interferes with the democratic rights of hundreds of thousands of Albertans.” She said this new question avoids the legal problems the petition process faced because it doesn’t bind the government to move to separate from Canada.

Longstanding disputes between Alberta and the federal government have led to a sovereignty movement that’s seeking to reap the rewards of the region’s vast natural resources. Stay Free Alberta said its petition, which asked for an independence vote, garnered more than 301,000 signatures.

Jeffrey Rath, one of the leaders of the separatist movement, said there would be a lot of people upset at Smith’s new question and he would be campaigning to have her ousted as leader of the UCP at the next opportunity.

“There’s going to be 301,000 people in Alberta who stood in the cold, who stood in blizzards that did exactly what she asked them to do in order to get their question on a referendum ballot,” he said in an interview. “And she literally stabbed 301,000 people in the back.”

Surveys also suggest separatism lacks broad appeal and is particularly opposed by women and residents of Alberta’s largest cities. A poll last month of 1,200 residents by Janet Brown Opinion Research found support for the separatist cause at 27%, with 67% saying they would vote against it.

A rival petition from a group called Forever Canada, led by former Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, garnered more than 400,000 signatures supporting the province staying within Canada.

The premier has been threading a political needle on the issue of separation, knowing that a significant portion of her United Conservative Party membership favors leaving the country, while also saying she believes in staying within Canada. Smith’s said she understands separatists’ concerns, and she lowered the threshold for a citizen petition to trigger a referendum.

“If you wanted to put something on the ballot that would keep the separatist question in play in Alberta, I think this is as far as you can go inside the legal parameters that have been set out by these court decisions,” Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said in an interview.

Smith has previously announced that voters would get to weigh in on nine other questions on Oct. 19, largely to do with immigration measures and provincial powers within Canada.

Alberta, a province of about 5 million people, holds most of the country’s known oil reserves and exports millions of barrels daily to the US. Smith recently signed an agreement with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to advance a new pipeline to Canada’s west coast that would aim to start construction in September 2027.

Sheldon Sunshine, chief of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, one of the groups who successfully challenged the separation petition, said in an interview the potential breakup of the province was a uniting cause among Indigenous groups and they would continue to campaign to stay in government.

“We’re going to challenge them legally. We’re going to use every means that we have available to us,” he said. “We’re organized, we got teams put together, we’re preparing for anything.”

Ahead of Smith’s announcement, a group of 22 First Nations issued a statement saying despite submitting documents to cabinet and a special legislative committee that they had not yet heard back from the government on their concerns about a possible new question on separation.

Federal Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on X that the government remains “focused on building a stronger Canada for all, in full partnership with Alberta and to the benefit of all Albertans and all Canadians.”

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the federal Conservative Party, earlier on Thursday said his party would be supporting the remain movement.

“I will be campaigning across the province of Alberta, encouraging Albertans to stay as part of the Canadian family, and encouraging nationwide unity for all Canadians,” he said.

The independence movement was embroiled in controversy earlier this month when police began investigating the unauthorized use of about 3 million citizens’ personal data in Alberta.

An activist group called the Centurion Project was accused of unauthorized possession of Alberta’s list of electors, which contains names, addresses and other personal information of voters. The dataset comprises about three-fifths of the province’s population, according to Elections Alberta.

(Updates with reaction starting from seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The signing of two co-operation agreements between ADNOC and Indian companies will see the Abu Dhabi-based major seek future opportunities in crude oil, gas storage, and strategic reserves, in collaboration with the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

One agreement could raise ADNOC’s crude oil storage in India by up to 30 million barrels, using facilities in Mangalore and exploring options at Vishakhapatnam and Chandikol.

Storing millions of barrels of crude oil in India’s domestic petroleum reserves could give the country a critical buffer against future global supply chain disruptions.

The agreements, signed during a recent official UAE visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also examined the option of crude storage in the UAE port city of Fujairah as part of India’s strategic petroleum reserve, alongside storage opportunities for LNG and LPG in India.

ADNOC also has an agreement with Indian Oil Corporation for LPG supply and trading, including through ADNOC Global Trading, which builds on their existing 2023 LPG contract.

Growing existing ties

The strategic alliances advance bilateral collaboration in the energy sector and fortify the UAE-India bond, further strengthening their already robust energy relationship.

ADNOC’s partnerships with Indian companies meet growing energy demand, support economic growth, and diversify the energy mix. 

These agreements boost energy security as global shipping faces challenges stemming from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They strengthen the resilience of UAE-India energy supply chains and enable ADNOC to play a greater role in India’s growth story and energy needs.

Mutual opportunities

The UAE is the country’s third-largest trading partner after the US and China, while India is its largest export destination and trading partner.

H.E. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, commented that India’s scale and growth trajectory make it “one of the defining energy markets of our time”.

He said: “As demand accelerates alongside a rapidly expanding population, the strength of the UAE-India energy partnership becomes ever more critical.

“These agreements reinforce supply security, deepen our strategic ties, and underscore ADNOC’s role as a dependable and reliable partner in powering India’s long-term economic growth.”

Building on historic trade

The UAE region and India have a trading legacy dating back centuries. Their energy relationship formally began in the mid-1970s — shortly after the formation of the Emirates — with crude oil exports from Abu Dhabi.

The relationship expanded to a multidimensional partnership when the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) went into force on 1 May, 2022.

With both countries targeting $200 billion in trade by 2032, they have further strengthened bilateral economic ties, including in energy and defence. Government data shows trade activity increased 14.7% in 2025.

The UAE is expected to boost oil output following the 1 May announcement to leave OPEC, enabling greater freedom to increase production and supply to importers such as India, potentially at lower prices. The country already imports more than 85% of its crude requirements — about 11% of that, or up to 450,000 bpd — from the UAE.

Fuelling India’s growth

In January, the two countries also signed a $3 billion deal for India to buy LNG from the UAE.

New Delhi aims to raise natural gas's share of its energy mix to 15% by 2030, while ADNOC Gas has pledged to broaden its customer base and expand its presence in India and other key Asian growth markets.

The ADNOC subsidiary made a 10-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), a unit of state-owned Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).

This was announced during the January visit by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to India’s Prime Minister. At the time, Dr Al Jaber and Vikas Kaushal, Chairman and Managing Director of HPCL, reiterated the importance of the growing relationship between ADNOC and its Indian partners and customers.

ADNOC Gas has signed LNG contracts and agreements totalling more than $20 billion with Indian energy firms, making India the UAE’s largest LNG customer.

By 2029, it will operate at least 15.6 mtpa of LNG, with 3.2 mtpa contracted to Indian firms.

ADNOC previously said: “As one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies and a key driver of global energy demand, India continues to be a strategic priority for ADNOC and sits at the centre of key global energy growth trends.”

In a letter to a global shipping watchdog, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said commercial and merchant vessels shouldn’t engage with the PGSA or cross the waterway using a route designated by Iran. The letter was issued earlier this week and distributed by the International Maritime Organization.

Earlier in May, Iran laid out an updated process for transiting the strait in which vessel owners needed to email the PGSA. The waterway has been largely blocked since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, though a handful of ships have crossed by following a route approved by Tehran. 

“Iran’s purported route should be seen for what it is, an attempt to control traffic through the Strait by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters, which can be exploited for monetary gain through the imposition of toll fees,” the letter said. “Any understanding or recognition of Iran’s proposed route and PGSA as an alternative would set a dangerous precedent.”

The view of those countries matters because in normal times they are exporters of significant volumes of energy, meaning shipowners willing to engage with Iran would risk irking other major regional producers. The IMO, which is the UN agency for shipping, has previously said charging for tolls for crossing Hormuz would be unacceptable, a view echoed by two of the world’s biggest commodity traders last month. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Inpex reached an agreement in principle with BP Plc, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk, PT PLN Energi Primer Indonesia and Shell Eastern Trading (Pte) Ltd. for LNG offtake from the Abadi LNG Project in eastern Indonesia, the company said in a statement on Wednesday. Inpex will work with the potential customers toward finalizing sale and purchase agreements. 

In a separate statement on Thursday, Perusahaan Gas Negara said it signed a preliminary agreement to buy LNG from the project for 15 years starting in 2033. 

The announcement signifies a step forward for the project, which is expected to have an annual production volume of 9.5 million tons, or about 10% of Japan’s imports. The Japanese firm aims to take a final investment decision in 2027. Inpex’s local subsidiary will be the operator, while Pertamina Hulu Energi PT and Petronas Masela Sdn. Bhd. hold stakes. 

Inpex also reached an agreement in principle with fertilizer maker PT Pupuk Indonesia (Persero) for pipeline gas supply from Abadi LNG Project, the firm said in its statement. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent neared $106 a barrel after sliding 5.6% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was around $99. Trump’s comments to reporters stoked hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran that would see a near-term restart of energy flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Conflicting headlines about the status of negotiations have buffeted oil this week, and prices are still more than 40% higher than when the war started at the end of February. Still, traders have consistently priced in the possibility of an abrupt deescalation, including a deal under which Iran reopens the key shipping lane and unlocks millions of barrels stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Though a peace deal with Iran stands to sink prices, “the physical markets are still in disarray,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. “It takes up to 55 days to get oil from the Persian Gulf to its destination, which means inventories will still be drawing during that period.”

Even if the Iran conflict ended immediately, Middle East oil flows would not fully recover until well into 2027, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber said Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz closure was the most severe supply disruption on record, he said.

Already, global stockpiles of crude oil and products are being drawn down at a record pace this month as the war drags on, curtailing supplies, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

US crude inventories slid by about 7.9 million barrels last week, broadly in-line with earlier estimates from a widely followed industry group. Exports were shy of recent record-high levels, as overseas buyers stock up on American oil to offset disruptions to Middle East supply.

Some nascent signs of higher flows through the strait are also siphoning risk premium out of crude prices. Three oil supertankers appeared to attempt to cross the waterway, the latest in a small uptick in traffic after a relative lull in recent days. Iran claimed 26 ships passed in the last 24 hours, though it has previously suggested far larger transit numbers than ship-tracking indicates.

Trump said on Wednesday “we’ll see what happens” with Iran, adding that a deal will be made or “we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen.” He has repeatedly threatened to restart strikes on Iran if it doesn’t agree to his peace terms.

Iran is reviewing the US’s new draft in response to Tehran’s 14-point proposal and is yet to give a response, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, citing a source close to the country’s negotiating team. Earlier in the day, Iran warned it would retaliate beyond the Middle East if the US or Israel attacks it again.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

SB Energy, based in Redwood City, California, is looking to capture investor demand for firms building out power infrastructure for artificial intelligence data centers. The company has raised more than $1.8 billion to fulfill its data center ambitions from SoftBank, OpenAI and Ares Management over the past year.

In February, SB Energy unveiled plans for a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant with an estimated cost of $33 billion. That plant would power SB Energy’s massive AI data center project being developed on a former uranium enrichment site in Piketon, Ohio. (One gigawatt is equivalent to a traditional nuclear reactor.)

Founded as a solar and battery storage developer, SB Energy has expanded its portfolio to include natural gas and building digital infrastructure for data centers.

That pivot has helped the firm tap into the data center boom. In January, OpenAI and SoftBank each committed $500 million to SB Energy and tapped the company to build and operate OpenAI’s 1.2 gigawatt data center in Milam County, Texas.

(Updates with context on the planned capacity of the Ohio project mentioned in the third paragraph. A prior version corrected the entity developing that project.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent traded below $111 a barrel, after losing 0.7% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate was below $104. Trump said that the Iran war is going to end “very quickly” and that Iran “wants to make a deal badly” at the White House Congressional Picnic. 

Trump’s remarks followed earlier comments that the US “may have to give them another big hit” if Tehran rejects American peace terms, less than a day after he said he had called off an attack. The comments renewed concerns over a return to hostilities, though traders remain cautious after repeated threats of military action since the April 8 ceasefire failed to materialize.

When asked how long he would wait, Trump said: “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.”

“Markets need the threat to be a lot more imminent,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research, Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities. 

Oil also fell alongside broader markets, as mounting inflation concerns fueled a rise in global bond yields. With US 10-year bond yields rising well above 4.5%, markets may have a greater incentive to bet on Trump backpedaling, Varathan said.

Now in its 12th week, the war has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving global energy prices and inflation higher. The US also seized an Iran-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean overnight — at least the third such seizure targeting Tehran’s shadow fleet, the Wall Street Journal reported.

With no resolution in sight, news that NATO is discussing escorting ships through the strait should the route remain closed past early July also weighed on futures. Investors have increasingly priced in a prolonged closure, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. poll earlier this month — meaning a NATO-led effort could return supply to market faster than expected.

At a meeting in Beijing on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, state news agency Xinhua reported, as the two leaders sought to reinforce ties amid the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, White House officials are holding firm against restricting oil exports even as domestic inventories dwindle. An industry report indicated US crude stockpiles dropped by 9.1 million barrels last week, which would be the biggest decline since September if confirmed by official data due later Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a massive Brent crude put options bet equivalent to 134 million barrels traded in a single block. That rattled a market already on high alert for unusual flows.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

According to a landmark report by AVEVA and IMD, while 74% of leaders in such companies consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially with ecosystem partners. According to the report, the gap between ambition and execution leaves trillions in potential industrial intelligence untapped just as companies need it most.

Building and scaling business ecosystems

The inaugural report, jointly produced by AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software,  and IMD, the global business school, is titled Industrial Intelligence Report on Digital Ecosystems and the Future of Connected Industries, and was launched at AVEVA World 2026 in Milan on Tuesday.

In a fireside chat during the opening ceremony, Caspar Herzberg, AVEVA CEO, spoke with IMD Professor Mike Wade about the findings from over 275 interviews with leaders across 12 different sectors worldwide. Encompassing both quantitative analysis and detailed interviews with experts from the Port of Rotterdam, Kwinana in Australia and many others, the report distils how organisations can harness their industrial intelligence to build, orchestrate and scale business ecosystems.

The report reveals that while 74% of leaders consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially or extensively with ecosystem partners. Several illustrative case studies also emphasize the gap between ambition and execution: integration complexity, legacy systems and weak governance.

Industrial intelligence in action

The report found that organisations are increasingly seeking to construct digital ecosystems to confront higher-order business challenges - whether that is innovating faster, navigating supply volatility, or decarbonising complex global operations.

Yet, the gap between digital ecosystem ambition and execution remains wide. “With this collaboration with IMD, our ambition is not merely to understand the motivations behind the move to digital ecosystems, but to define the frameworks, competencies and leadership practices that will concretely enable companies to transcend silos and build more adaptive, ecosystem driven operating models,” Herzberg said.

AVEVA and AWS announce collaboration

During AVEVA World, the company also announced a multi-year strategic collaboration agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to accelerate the delivery of industrial intelligence in the cloud. The agreement deepens the companies’ existing relationship and establishes a framework for joint technology development, go-to-market execution, and customer migration support across the global industrial sector.

Under the terms of the agreement, AVEVA will expand its CONNECT industrial intelligence platform on AWS, as part of its broader move to a multi-cloud architecture. By bringing CONNECT and the broader AVEVA portfolio to AWS, the two companies aim to give industrial customers a faster, more scalable path to cloud-native operations, reducing the complexity and cost of managing on-premises infrastructure while enabling new AI-driven capabilities that were previously impractical at scale.

AVEVA and IFS to advance AI-powered asset intelligence

AVEVA also announced a technology partnership with IFS to enable complex industrial organisations to connect operational intelligence, enterprise execution and strategic capital planning. CEOs Caspar Herzberg and Mark Moffat shared the first wave of the collaboration at AVEVA World in Milan: Continuous Asset Decision Intelligence. This new solution is designed to turn real-time operational and asset data into smarter maintenance, investment and execution decisions across the integrated asset lifecycle. The benefit for customers is simple: less guesswork and timelier, evidence-based decisions.

AVEVA and Snowflake to unify IT/OT data ecosystems

As a part of the event, AVEVA also announced a collaboration with Snowflake, the AI data cloud company, to transform how industrial organisations unify, govern, and activate data across IT and OT environments. The collaboration establishes a direct, zero-copy integration between CONNECT, AVEVA’s industrial intelligence platform, and Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud, enabling customers to securely access, analyse, and activate industrial and enterprise data without the need for complex data pipelines or costly integration projects.

“Industrial customers need fast, secure access to trusted data across operational, engineering, and enterprise domains to support decision-making at scale,” said Rob McGreevy, Chief Product Officer at AVEVA. “Through this collaboration, we are extending our cloud-scale intelligence capabilities and enabling data to be accessed and used without duplication, helping bring operational intelligence into enterprise-wide decision within an open, partner-led ecosystem.”

These are the reasons why the UAE is doubling down across the value chain and building partnerships to drive an energy secure, prosperous future, H.E. Dr Al Jaber told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday during a virtual interview on the state of global energy markets amid geopolitical disruption, and how to achieve energy security, stability, and resilience in an era of volatility and uncertainty.

In a wide-ranging conversation with Helima Croft, Managing Director and the Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, H.E. Dr Al Jaber also laid out the staggering macroeconomic toll of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – from soaring inflation to severe energy under-investment, and described the ensuing energy crisis as an “everything story” that threatens the entire modern supply chain.

Despite these unprecedented challenges, H.E. Dr Al Jaber highlighted ADNOC’s operational resilience and explained the strategic rationale behind the UAE’s historic decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. He also invited the energy industry to convene in Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC to better understand the lessons from the energy crisis and develop new avenues of long-term collaboration. 

Here are edited excerpts from the conversation:

You have been extremely vocal about the cost to the global economy of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Can you give us your latest thoughts on the cumulative impact of this crisis?

The closure of [the Strait of] Hormuz is the most severe supply disruption on record. So far, the world has lost over a billion barrels of oil. And that number goes up by almost 100 million barrels every single week. Brent is trading at 40% above pre-closure levels. And Hormuz, as we all know it, is not just an oil story. It is, in fact, an everything story. Think about it. We're talking LNG, jet fuel, fertilisers, ammonia, urea, aluminium, helium, critical minerals, plastics, consumer goods, and other general cargo products. In other words, the entire supply chain of the modern global economy from the food on your table to the planes in the sky to the chips in your phone. Fuel prices are up 30%, fertilisers are up 50%, airfares are up 25% – every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load.

And this is now flowing into the macro numbers.

Global growth outlook has been cut to 3.1% for 2026. Inflation is already pushing past 4%. One stat really stands out. Just over 80 days into this conflict and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies. Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows. And full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

"When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand. We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia."

This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished. If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences.

The costs you've laid out are absolutely stunning and I would argue still underappreciated by many watchers of this war. I want to ask you specifically about the impact on the UAE.

I'm sure everyone here knows how well we managed the situation. But yes, and of course, we were affected. And I am sure you will agree that this was an illegal, erratic, unhinged and unprovoked attack. We never called for this. In fact, we did everything to prevent it from happening.

The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones, more than any other country in this conflict. Every single target was civilian, airports, terminals, refineries, gas-processing plants, residential areas, shopping malls, and most recently, the Barakah nuclear power plant. Now, whether carried out directly or through proxies, this was a terrorist act and a dangerous escalation. It showed a criminal disregard for civilian lives in the UAE and across the region.

And what we will remember from these months is not the missiles or the drones. It is in fact the millions of small acts of courage by people, nationals and residents, who kept our country running. And I am sure that you would agree this is a testament to the UAE's leadership that put people above everything else.

Could you talk more specifically about ADNOC operations? Can you talk about how your company has been resilient through this crisis?

When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand.

We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia.

We are also working with our partners, in particular our partners in Asia to expand and restock strategic storage to strengthen resilience against future shocks. And we continue to adapt our commercial strategy to ensure our products remain very competitive, reliable, and attractive to customers around the world.

The best proof of how we have adapted to the situation is in our financial results. Even in this environment, every one of our listed companies has achieved strong returns, many of them outperforming market expectations and analysts. That tells you something important about the robustness of our business, the strength of our strategy, and the strength of our nation.

In March, you talked about the lessons that we need to learn from this experience. Can you talk about how we come back from this better?

A few things have really stayed with me from the last few months. First, resilience matters a great deal. In fact, it is a critical success factor. It may seem expensive until the day you need it. And when you need it, it becomes priceless.

Second, AI must be built in, not bolted on. In a crisis, the speed of insight and the speed of decision-making is the difference between continuity and disruption.

Third, energy security is no longer just about the ability to continue to produce. It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy. Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few choke points. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. And it is why we moved ahead with our second pipeline in 2025. Today it's already almost 50% complete and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027.

And that leads me to one of the biggest lessons, investment. As a sector and as an industry, we are dangerously under-invested. Upstream investment is sitting at around $400 billion a year, which barely offsets natural decline rates. Global spare capacity is around three million barrels a day. It should be closer to five. And in just two months, the world drew down around 250 million barrels from storage. We have 30 to 35 days of effective cover. We need to at least double that.

And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions.

There has been a lot of conversation about the UAE's decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. Can you walk us through the sort of rationale behind that decision and what you hope will be the benefits of taking that choice?

The UAE is entering a new chapter of growth. This was a sovereign strategic decision made with clarity, passion, conviction and full confidence. We want greater flexibility to invest. We want greater flexibility to grow, to expand, to partner, and to create long-term value. Because ultimately, real strength is not measured by the abundance of resources, but by how they are harnessed to serve the nation. It is about how you use them to build industries, create opportunities, and safeguard the economy for future generations.

The bottom line is we didn't move away from something. We moved toward something. We are moving toward a world that needs more energy. With demand for oil staying well above 100 million barrels into 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces. And that is the lowest cost, lowest carbon barrels out there. And now we will have the flexibility to place more crude with customers everywhere.

"And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions."

At the same time, we in the UAE need more energy to move at the speed of our ambition. In particular, natural gas is increasingly strategic, not only for our business, but for power generation, AI infrastructure, manufacturing, advanced industries and economic growth.

Ultimately, this was not a reaction or a rupture and not directed against anyone or any institution. For us, responsibility does not end with membership. Outside OPEC, the UAE will remain what it has always been, a disciplined, responsible, credible reliable and a stabilising force in the global energy markets. We will keep engaging, we will keep talking, and we will keep showing up for our friends and partners when and wherever they need us.

Can you talk about the relationship with the United States? How has it evolved and where do you see it going? And how does it encompass all the things you've talked about in terms of AI, investment, security?

The relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the United States is becoming more integrated, more ambitious, and more consequential every year. We have a strategic partnership across technology, investment, industry, infrastructure, energy, defence, and much more.

Last year, bilateral trade reached a record of $39 billion. And the UAE remained America's largest export market in the Middle East for the 17th consecutive year. The investment story is even more impressive. We have invested more than $1 trillion in the United States, with more to come over the next decade. Our energy investments, for example, through ADNOC, XRG and Masdar now total more than $85 billion across 19 states.

The US remains a top investment priority for us simply because of its unique infrastructure, its unique combination of rich energy resources, deep capital markets, and pro-investment regulation. Through XRG, we already have significant assets from the Rio Grande LNG terminal to 18 chemical sites across the US through Nova Chemicals, Covestro, and Borouge. And we are currently proactively and actively exploring opportunities with many of our partners. Some of them do exist as partners and some new partners.

Our approach is simply across the whole energy value chain, with special emphasis on the gas value chain from upstream shale to regasification terminals and the distribution network. And of course, our relationship extends beyond energy. This includes AI and AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, financial services, and much more.

We invest in America because we believe in America. We believe its energy resources, its capital markets, its innovation ecosystem, and its people, and the quality of the ecosystem that has been created that helps attract investments. The UAE and the United States are not just trading partners. We are co-investors in the economy of the next century. And that is a partnership built on trust, not on transactions. 

According to the agreements, QatarEnergy has acquired an 18% interest in block OFF-4, while Shell holds 32%, and APA Corporation retains the remaining 50%.

QatarEnergy has also acquired a 30% interest in block OFF-2, which is operated by Shell with a 70% interest. 

For the third exploration block, OFF-7, QatarEnergy has acquired a 30% interest, with Shell retaining 40%, and Chevron holding the remaining 30%. 

Expansion into Uruguay’s upstream sector

His Excellency Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said: “We are pleased to strengthen our relations with our strategic partner Shell through these agreements, which mark our first entry into Uruguay’s upstream sector while further expanding our footprint in South America.”

H. E. Minister Al-Kaabi added, “We would like to thank the Uruguayan authorities for their support, and we look forward to working with our partners on this opportunity and to achieve positive results for the benefit of all parties.”

Blocks OFF-2, OFF-4, and OFF-7 are offshore along Uruguay’s Atlantic coast. They cover areas between 11,155 and 18,227 square kilometres, with water depths from 40 to 4,000 metres.

In its May Oil Market Report, the IEA stated that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers due to the Iran war have already exceeded 1 billion barrels. OPEC+ output fell by 1.74 mbpd in April compared to March, averaging 33.19 mbpd due to the Hormuz closure. The April figure includes the UAE, which left the cartel on 1 May.

OPEC cut its second-quarter oil demand forecast by a further 500,000 bpd and lowered its 2026 global oil demand outlook amid the impact of the Iran war with Israel and the US, although it said world oil demand would increase by “a healthy” 1.17 mbpd in 2026, year-on-year. Although this is lower than the previously expected 1.38 mbpd, OPEC forecasts a rebound, raising its 2027 demand growth estimate by 200,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd.

Volatile prices

The IEA reported that benchmark oil prices had experienced “wild swings” in response to uncertainty over whether the US and Iran would soon reach a deal to end hostilities. North Sea Dated plunged from a high of $144/bbl to below $100/bbl before rebounding.

“With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mbpd of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock,” it said.

“The current supply-demand gap is significantly smaller, however, as the market was already in surplus heading into the crisis while producers and consumers alike are responding to market signals.”

Second quarter dip

OPEC expects global oil demand to average 104.57 mbpd in the second quarter, down from last month’s forecast of 105.07 mbpd. According to the Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC+ had planned to resume output increases from April, but the Strait blockade prevented this.

Meanwhile, OPEC said US crude imports dipped to a five-month low in April, averaging 5.8 mbpd in April, amid declines from the Middle East and Latin America, while US crude exports likely surged to a record high, estimated at 5.3 mbpd based on weekly data, driven by higher flows to Japan and South Korea.

Supply shifts

The IEA noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE redirected some exports to terminals loading away from the Strait.

“At the same time, stocks from commercial and government strategic storage sites in consuming countries are flowing into markets to offset part of the losses,” it said.

The IEA also reported that producers outside the Middle East raised output and exports to record levels in response to the crisis, and that 2026 supply growth expectations from the Americas had been revised up by over 600 kbpd since the start of the year, to 1.5 mbpd on average. Atlantic Basin crude oil exports have increased by 3.5 mbpd since February, with notable gains from the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela. Russia’s crude oil exports have also risen, as repeated attacks on its refineries cut domestic use.

Demand swings

OPEC stated that crude oil futures prices averaged higher month-on-month in April but remained volatile, “reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments, near-term supply conditions and trade flows”.

Its Monthly Oil Market Report said: “Geopolitical developments remained the dominant driver of market sentiment.” OPEC said global economic growth “continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East”. It added: “Global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.”

Additionally, the IEA’s monthly report noted that refiners had reduced runs and sharply scaled back crude imports, with Chinese seaborne crude imports falling by a huge 3.6 mbpd from February to April. Major import reductions were also seen in Japan, Korea, and India.

However, the IEA suggested that demand could return to growth by year-end if a peace deal is reached, allowing flows through the Strait to gradually resume from the third quarter of 2026. But it said supply would likely recover more slowly.

“As a result, the oil market remains in deficit until the final quarter of the year,” it said. “With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period.”

According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, power demand set a second consecutive annual record at 4,195 billion kWh in 2025, with projected rises to 4,248 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,379 billion kWh in 2027.

As well as data centre demand, the EIA says the increase is also driven by homes and businesses using more electricity and less fossil fuels for heat and transportation. However, it says power demand growth is led by the commercial sector, which is expected to outpace residential demand in 2027 for the first time.

Data centre energy appetite

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says data centres globally currently consume 485-500 TWh of power annually, accounting for about 2% of global electricity demand.

This rise in global demand reflects a rapidly increasing trajectory, primarily driven by the AI boom. As a result, projections indicate AI-specific hardware consumption will triple by 2030, nearly doubling overall data centre power use in that period.

The IEA says the AI-energy nexus is continuing to evolve rapidly, with capital expenditure by the largest technology companies exceeding $400 billion in 2025 and anticipated to rise a further 75% this year, fuelling data centre growth.

“Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production,” said the agency. 

IEA satellite tracking found cutting-edge AI data centres more than tripled capacity in the past 18 months.

AI efficiencies in context

The IEA said worldwide data centre electricity demand rose by 17% in 2025, in line with its projections. 

AI energy efficiency per task is improving at a rate "unprecedented in energy history," due to software and hardware advances.

However, this is offset by the increasing use of new energy-intensive AI applications, such as video generation, reasoning, and agentic tasks, which the IEA says can consume thousands of times more energy than simple text generation.

Managing bottlenecks

The agency said bottlenecks across energy supply chains have tightened since its last report amid a wave of data centre applications and a broader trend of rapid load growth and electrification, as the AI ecosystem scrambles for electricity and grid connections.

“An individual server rack within an advanced data centre is only the size of a large refrigerator, but by 2027 it could have peak power demand equivalent to that of 65 households,” the report noted.

The IEA suggested a possible upside in its mid- to longer-term outlook for data centre power demand, driven by investments to relieve bottlenecks across energy equipment and chip manufacturing.

On-site gas power is emerging in the US as developers bypass slow grid connections, with 15–27 GW expected by 2030, though the IEA cites uncertainties, such as a global gas turbine supply crunch.

Driving power innovation

Scaled battery storage could be critical to ensuring reliable supply to AI training and model-use data centres that induce large, rapid power swings.

The IEA predicts that 20-25 GW of global battery storage could be installed by 2030. With the right incentives, this could become a grid asset in the broader AI-driven acceleration of electricity sector deployment and innovation.

The agency cautioned that data centres could be a prominent flashpoint for concerns around energy prices.

But the IEA report also highlighted that AI has potential as an important tool in enhancing energy security and sustainability, such as optimising existing grid capacity.

However, it warned that the energy sector is yet to fully seize these opportunities.

An IEA survey of companies found that a lack of digital skills was the single largest barrier to greater AI adoption in the energy sector, while globally, less than half of energy demand was covered by policy frameworks promoting AI uptake in the sector.

The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.

“The political direction comes first, and then the formal planning happens after that,” said Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, when asked about the possibility at a Tuesday press conference. “Am I thinking about it? Absolutely.”

Such a move would represent a shift in the military alliance’s strategy toward the US-Israeli war in Iran. Thus far, allies have insisted they would only be involved in the strait once fighting has stopped and they can form a broad coalition that includes many non-NATO countries. 

But economic woes are deepening, with the strait’s closure sending energy prices soaring and growth forecasts tumbling. 

It’s unclear exactly how NATO countries could guarantee safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait. A recent US attempt to do that was halted within days of being launched, despite Washington’s considerable military capabilities.

A spokesperson for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Iran initially blocked the Strait of Hormuz — which transits roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies — after the US and Israel began bombing the country in late February. 

The passageway has since become a source of tension between the US and its European allies in NATO, who refused to heed President Donald Trump’s demands that they help reopen the strait. 

Trump has repeatedly fumed about the reaction and Washington recently announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany. 

The senior NATO official said that while some allies still oppose authorizing an alliance mission for the strait, they would rally around the idea if the blockage persists. 

The NATO diplomat said that several allies do support intervening to help reopen the strait, but cautioned that others are still reluctant to be dragged into the conflict.

Some NATO members like Spain have been unequivocal in their opposition to the war. Madrid even barred the US from using its airspace and bases to attack Iran. 

Most allies, however, have quietly granted access to their bases to provide logistical support. 

A coalition led by France and the UK is also developing a plan to help secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once the fighting abates. Some countries have even positioned assets in the area in preparation.

That hasn’t been enough to placate Trump, whose anger has been specifically targeted at Germany. So far, however, the US has made no formal request for NATO involvement in the strait, Bloomberg previously reported.

(Updates with Alexus Grynkewich comment and additional context starting in the third paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The SunZia wind farm in New Mexico, providing 3.5 gigawatts of power capacity — enough to power one million homes annually — will be operational as soon as June 15, according to people familiar with the matter. The project includes a 550-mile transmission line carrying electricity to Arizona, and has been in the works for two decades.

The Pattern Energy Group LLC development is likely to be one of the last in a shrinking pool of blockbuster deals to reach fruition, with President Donald Trump’s government ending lucrative federal tax incentives and delaying permitting for renewables. The Pentagon is also sitting on a growing backlog of dozens of proposed US wind farms and withholding authorizations key for developing the power projects.

A spokesperson for Pattern Energy declined to comment.

Roughly 5,000 wind turbines are awaiting final approval from the US administration, according to a research last month from consultant Wood Mackenzie. Failure to clear projects currently held by the Department of Defense may reduce installations by 17% through the end of the decade, or by about 7 gigawatts, the report said.

SunZia will provide a key source of power ahead of what is forecast to be another hot summer across California and Western US states that will strain the grid. Drought and a moderate snow pack over the winter is set to reduce the amount of hydropower in the region, so wind could help provide a key source of relief.

US clean-energy installations are forecast to hit another record this year, despite facing policy opposition from the federal government. SunZia lined up $11 billion of funding in the last days of 2023.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Surging demand from data centers, population growth, rising incomes and more battery-powered vehicles are all boosting demand for electricity, researchers wrote in BNEF’s annual New Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The report concludes that rapid electrification is set to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

“So far this decade, the world has suffered three substantial shocks to the energy system: the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and, most recently, the conflict in the Persian Gulf,” the analysts wrote. “Successive energy market shocks could be a boon for the energy transition as some countries look to decouple from imported fossil fuels and bolster their energy security.”

BNEF’s analysis is based on two potential future outcomes. The Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) is based on what is most likely to happen based on prevailing economic forces. The Net-Zero Scenarios (NZS) assumes climate policies are the main driver — in other words, it is underpinned by what governments have said they committed to at the Paris Agreement to lower emissions. 

In the ETS, where green policies exist but governments aren’t prioritizing them, solar and wind power both continue to increase their share of the global power mix. Solar becomes the largest contributor in 2032, while wind becomes the second largest in 2034, both displacing coal which is currently at the top spot.

This increase in renewable energy is supported by the deployment of batteries, which will be needed to store clean electricity for times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. BNEF increased its projection for global energy storage from 220 gigawatts in 2025 to 2,000 gigawatts by 2035. While China is expected to see the biggest share of battery deployment for the next few decades, the ETS scenario also forecasts huge demand in India and Europe starting in the 2030s. 

BNEF’s analysis, based on recent carbon emission trends, shows that the world is on track to miss the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C from pre-industrial levels. Under the ETS, the planet will heat up 2.4C by 2050, with emissions from two of the three biggest polluters — India, Southeast Asia and Latin America — continuing to rise. China, the world’s biggest emitter, will see its emissions fall, after having peaked in 2025. 

Even if the world reaches net-zero emissions by 2050, the projected warming by the end of the century is likely to be above 1.8C, higher than the 1.75C BNEF projected in 2024. 

Other major takeaways from the report:

• Both scenarios will see increasing spend on the energy transition. In the ETS, investments are set to rise 34% from $2.3 trillion in 2025 to $3.1 trillion average annually for the rest of this decade. The NZS requires a doubling to $4.8 trillion in the same period.

• In the ETS, oil demand peaks around 2029, driven by electrification of road transport. Gas demand continues to rise through 2050 and becomes the biggest source of primary energy by the 2040s, displacing oil.

• Despite almost $500 billion of equity investments in next-generation climate technologies, such as carbon removal, advanced batteries and geothermal, none have yet to mature to the commercial stage.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The government is considering several options for the state-rescued company, including an initial public offering or a sale, according to a notice published in the Financial Times. No final decision has been made on the scope, timing or structure of a potential transaction.

Uniper was nationalized during Europe’s energy crisis after Russia cut gas supplies to the continent, leaving Germany’s largest importer of the fuel facing massive losses and forcing Berlin into a multibillion-euro bailout. 

Privatizing the company could allow the government to recover part of those costs, though it’s uncertain whether taxpayers would recover the full amount.

A sale may face objections from labor representatives. Employees favor a re-listing and “we continue to categorically reject an off-market sale,” Martin Geilhorn, head of Uniper’s workers council, said by email.

Germany began preparing Uniper’s return to private ownership last year, saying it preferred an IPO while also evaluating alternative options. Potential bidders that have shown early interest include Equinor ASA, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EPH and Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.

Before its 2022 nationalization, Uniper was owned by Fortum Oyj. The Finnish utility told Bloomberg that it would be “interested in assessing the opportunity” to buy its Swedish hydro and nuclear assets. Fortum has a so-called right of first offer for these plants until the end of this year that was secured during the sale, it said. 

The German government and its advisers have also spent months examining a potential merger with Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, another energy company nationalized during the crisis, producing multiple reports as the review process dragged on.

Time is increasingly becoming a factor. Under European Union rules, Germany must cut its stake in Uniper to no more than 25% plus one share by the end of 2028. A similar divestment process is expected for SEFE.

Interested parties have until June 12 to declare their interest to advisers JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Group AG.

(Updated with Fortum comment in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Bay Area university town of 120,000 is the first in the US to require sellers and buyers of single-family homes to replace fossil-fuel appliances or make other green upgrades as a condition of sale. It’s one of several cities leveraging real estate transactions to achieve carbon-emissions reduction targets as the Trump administration eliminates climate action. Austin, Minneapolis and Portland, Oregon, are among municipalities that require home sellers to obtain and disclose the results of energy audits to encourage voluntary efficiency improvements. 

Berkeley, though, is mandating that such upgrades happen. “What Berkeley is doing holds a lot of promise in terms of being a very effective way to increase the rate of retrofits as homes are sold and turn over to new owners,” said David Ribeiro, director of local policy for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a nonprofit research organization. 

The city has long pioneered environmental policies that have later been adopted across the country, from curbside recycling in the 1970s to a ban on polystyrene-foam takeout food containers in the 1980s. Berkeley voters in 2006 set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 and buildings are the city’s second-largest source of carbon pollution after transportation, according to Ammon Reagan, the sustainability program coordinator for the city’s energy office. 

“Natural gas is the biggest source of building emissions and the biggest emission savings are from heat pumps,” he said. 

A 2024 report from RMI found that single-family homes account for 58% of US building emissions. “The evidence that we have is that just energy disclosure requirements prompt some behavioral change,” said Erin Sherman, a buildings policy expert at nonprofit RMI, which promotes decarbonization. 

Berkeley’s Building Emissions Saving Ordinance (BESO) took effect in January and gives credits for a home’s low-carbon systems with a minimum score of six credits needed. Home sellers must disclose their score and make any needed changes before a sale or the buyer must do so within two years. 

A heat pump is worth six credits, as is upgrading a home’s electrical system to make it heat-pump ready. Solar panels and batteries achieve three credits a piece if they’ve been installed within five years. An EV charger, induction stove and heat pump clothes dryer score two credits each. Homeowners also must also obtain and disclose an energy audit and a high score from the assessment gets two credits.

Electric-powered heat pumps don’t burn fuel to warm a home. Instead, they extract heat from the outside air and then circulate it through the home. They cool homes by reversing the process, removing hot air from inside the house and venting it outside. 

While they’re highly efficient, they aren’t cheap. Replacing a gas furnace with a heat pump in the Bay Area can run about $25,000. A heat pump water heater costs around $7,500. And rewiring an older house and upgrading the electrical panel so heat pumps can be installed can set homeowners back more than $40,000. 

Sellers can opt to defer such work to the buyer and each party puts $2,500 in a city escrow account to be used by the purchaser to come into compliance. If upgrades aren’t made in two years, the deposit is forfeited.

Reagan said that since January the city has received 80 escrow deposits, while 57 homeowners certified their prior compliance with BESO. Only nine applications for certification were for heat pumps installed this year in preparation of a sale.

Brokers said the emissions mandate is starting to change the dynamics of the market as BESO scores appear on listings. 

“Homes that are already electrified will be perceived as more move-in ready,” Berkeley broker Megan Micco said in an email. “Homes that defer everything effectively carry a hidden cost that informed buyers will factor into their offers.”

Micco listed the $1.25 million Mediterranean Revival whose upgrades let her highlight the house as “fully BESO compliant.” A mile away, agents recently held an open house at another 1930s Mediterranean bungalow, a smaller dwelling with a low BESO score priced at $898,000.

“Sellers typically aren’t going to do anything on that BESO list unless it’s related to being able to get insurance as they’re thinking about aesthetic improvements,” said broker Jen Wolan as she stood in the foyer of the home.  “

She noted that potential purchasers of her nearly million-dollar listing would be “one of the more budget buyers in Berkeley” and unlikely to have extra funds to electrify the house. So the sellers are considering spending as much as $9,000 to replace some older wiring to increase the home’s BESO score. 

“We're really excited any time we get listings that already have these upgrades because then we do advertise that,” she said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.