The Islamic Republic said nothing had been finalized regarding the deal with the US and that an agreement would not be reached by Trump’s suggested deadline, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported on Sunday, citing an unidentified official close to the negotiating team. As of Friday, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hadn’t agreed to the text, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg.

Adding to tensions, Israel’s military hit the Lebanese capital on Sunday, saying it was targeting Hezbollah after the Iranian-backed group fired more projectiles into northern Israel. Three people were killed and 15 injured in the southern suburbs of Beirut, state-run National News Agency reported.

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said there was “no point” in continuing talks if the US lacks the “will and ability” to fulfill its commitments and stop Israel from bombing Lebanon. The Islamic Republic warned that Israeli attacks on Beirut wouldn’t go “unanswered,” according to state media.

Israel’s foreign ministry responded to Ghalibaf, saying Hezbollah had attacked “completely unprovoked” and firing at its territory wouldn’t be tolerated.

Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel less than a week ago in retaliation for the Jewish state striking Beirut. Iran insists any interim deal with the US includes a ceasefire in Lebanon, a demand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he won’t accept until Hezbollah is disarmed and no longer firing on Israel.

An agreement is meant to see Tehran reopen the strait to commercial vessels and Washington lift a blockade of Iranian ports. The two would extend their ceasefire by around two months and go into further negotiations about curbing Iran’s nuclear program.

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” Trump said on Truth Social on Saturday, “and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.”

Iranian officials have emphasized there’s been progress and say they are closer to a pact than at any point since the ceasefire started on April 8. Yet they’ve been more cautious than Trump, stating that not all the clauses of what’s likely to be a 14-point document are finalized.

Sticking Points

A Qatari delegation of mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday to continue exchanging messages between Iran and the US regarding the MOU, according to the Iranian ISNA news agency.

While Tehran is likely to reiterate it won’t build nuclear weapons, key sticking points include its demand the US unfreezes tens of billions of dollars of Iranian funds held in countries such as Qatar, and Washington’s push for the Islamic Republic to agree to destroying or diluting its stockpiles of high-enriched uranium.

Reuters, citing an unidentified Iranian official, reported that a draft of the MOU includes the US allowing the release of $25 billion of frozen assets.

Trump, under pressure from Iran hawks in the US, has said that Iran won’t get any money immediately upon an MOU being signed. That’s been echoed by other US officials, who say the Islamic Republic will only benefit financially if it shows it’s sticking to the terms of the deal, including allowing traffic to move freely through the Hormuz strait.

Trump has added that when other components of the deal are settled, the US will “go in and get the Nuclear Dust,” his term for highly enriched uranium, and would destroy it either in Iran or the US.

The two sides have been negotiating via mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar since the truce kicked in. Tensions have remained high and the ceasefire looked close to collapsing this week, with Iran and Israel exchanging fire. The US then blamed Iran for downing an Apache helicopter, which led to clashes between them on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Trump said he would hit more military targets on Thursday, before changing plans with his announcement that an agreement with Iran was imminent.

His switch in stance came after Iran privately threatened to end negotiations and escalate its response to any further US strikes, one diplomat familiar with the matter said.

Trump has vacillated dozens of times in recent weeks between saying a deal is near and threatening to return to all-out war against Iran.

He started the conflict in late February when he opted to bomb Iran alongside Israel, saying it was necessary to stop the Islamic Republic building a nuclear weapon. He and Netanyahu also signaled they wanted regime change, ending the Islamic Republic that came to life with Iran’s revolution in 1979.

Although Iran has been battered and several top officials have been killed — including Supreme Leader Khamenei’s predecessor and father, Ali — its forces have caused chaos across the region. They’ve fired thousands of missiles and drones at Israel and US allies such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz by hitting some ships, sending energy prices soaring. While oil has dropped since late April, with traders anticipating a deal rather than a return to full-blown warfare, it’s still up more than 40% this year at around $85 a barrel.

And time may be running out to keep prices below $100. The US and other nations have drawn down emergency petroleum stockpiles at a record rate to help cap prices. Oil executives have warned those buffers are reaching critical lows.

The jump in fuel costs has pushed up inflation globally, including in the US, hurting Trump and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections in November.

At the same time, Trump is keen to present any deal as a win and is under pressure from Iran hawks such as Senator Lindsey Graham not to unfreeze any of Tehran’s funds. Many of them have called on him to resume strikes and “finish the job.”

(Updates with more details on airstrike on Lebanese capital, Fars detail.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A unit of billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd. is seeking government permission to reopen the Grassy Mountain mine in Alberta to extract coal used in steel production. 

The project has been previously rejected because of concerns it would damage water quality and harm wildlife. Hancock’s not alone. Separately, Valory Resources Inc. wants to dig for metallurgic coal nearby. 

Enter Corb Lund, a winner of the Canadian equivalent of a Grammy and multiple Canadian Country Music Association awards. The 57-year-old Albertan wants provincial leaders to impose a moratorium on new coal projects in the eastern Rockies. 

For almost half a century, new coal mines in Alberta were tightly restricted to a select group of areas. But in 2020, the province temporarily scrapped the policy and began selling mining leases in previous no-go zones, only to suspend those sales the following year. In 2025, the restrictions were lifted again, triggering legal action by environmentalists.

“I’ve never spoken out in 30 years in the public eye about any issue politically ever, except for this one, because it was so egregious,” Lund said during an interview. “The risks are so high on this and the rewards are so low that the only people benefiting from it are the foreign coal companies and a handful of people that get the jobs.”

A spokesperson for Hancock Prospecting’s Northback subsidiary said a 2025 Alberta-wide poll had showed 74% of Albertans support Grassy Mountain, and the proposed mine would be developed with close consultation of locals.

The firm has reduced the size of its initial proposal by 40% and cut the planned mining rate almost in half to 2.5 million tons a year, Chief Executive Officer Mike Young said in an interview in Calgary. The developer also plans to build a water-treatment facility and bury selenium exposed during mining to negate the need for tailings dams, he said.

“Just because your company is owned by a foreign company doesn’t give you any legal ability to shirk your responsibilities,” Young said. “We are a Canadian company that’s owned by an Australian company. We have all the obligations of a Canadian company owned by a Canadian.”

Canada is the world’s eighth-largest producer of metallurgic coal and Alberta ranks No. 2 domestically behind British Columbia. 

Although coal-fired power generation is being phased out in Canada, the price of metallurgic coal — the kind used to make steel — are near historic highs following a rally that kicked off in 2021.

A joint federal and provincial review board rejected the Grassy Mountain project five years ago on environmental concerns, finding that “the adverse environmental effects on surface water quality and westslope cutthroat trout and its habitat outweigh the positive economic impacts.” 

As a result, the board deemed the development “not in the public interest.” Hancock is suing the Canadian government for C$2 billion ($1.4 billion) in damages under an international trade dispute mechanism.

Around 3,000 volunteers have been out in force through the harsh winter and early spring months gathering signatures on sidewalks across the province and placing signs in windows and on front lawns.

Norma Dougall, a canvasser for the Water Not Coal petition who owns property near the proposed mine, said she was part of the first public hearings on the project.

“We naively thought that logic and common sense and science prevailed and that it was going away and now it’s back on again,” she said during an interview at a Calgary street festival. 

“So we’re trying to get a permanent ban so this issue doesn’t keep popping up and down because water is really the most valuable resource versus coal, especially coal from an Australian coal miner selling it to Asia,” she said.

Lund was in Edmonton this week to submit the petition to Elections Alberta. If they gather roughly 178,000 verified signatures, the question will be put to Premier Danielle Smith’s cabinet to decide whether to act on it or put the question to voters alongside 10 others in an Oct. 19 referendum. 

Smith has said publicly that if the petition is successful she will add it to the autumn ballot. The Water Not Coal group has so far gathered more than 200,000 signatures, according to Lund. 

The project is still a ways away from regulatory approval. Northback’s revised application will go to public feedback and regulatory review for two years and then face another public hearing. 

“Alberta’s biggest thing is the environment,” said Donna Clement, a volunteer gathering petition signatures outside a Calgary sporting goods store. “That’s what we’re known for around the world. Not necessarily the oil and gas, but the mountains and everything that goes with it. So that’s important to me.”

(Adds comment from Hancock subsidiary Northback in paragraph seven)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The president will hold bilateral meetings with the leaders of France, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Egypt as well as India, according to senior administration officials who briefed reporters on the upcoming trip on the condition of anonymity. India and the Middle Eastern countries are not part of the G7.

The US and Iran are closing in on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could be signed as early as Sunday on the sidelines of the summit.

The Trump administration believes it has a strong deal, one of the US officials said, adding that there are many actions that other G7 member nations can take once the agreement with Iran moves forward. 

The president is expected to focus on economic development and security, supply chain resilience, artificial intelligence, regulatory streamlining and energy abundance, the officials said.

The meeting at Évian-les-Bains from June 15 to June 17 comes at a time of growing tensions between the US and many of its largest economic and security partners. 

The war delivered a global energy shock with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas shipments, roiling financial markets, causing gasoline prices to spike and raising fears about the impact on global growth. Trump has lashed out at European allies for not doing more to help open the strait, even again floating the prospect of the US exiting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Asked about concerns that the US may pull back on some of its defense commitments in Europe, including reducing the number of aircraft and warships as part of the NATO alliance, officials said they were happy with some of the burden-shifting to European countries and would like to see more.

Trump also is pushing ahead with efforts to rebuild his tariff wall after a court setback this year, further straining economic ties and fueling uncertainty for major trading partners that already have deals with the US.

The G7 gathering, bringing together the leaders of the US, France, Germany, the UK, Canada, Italy and Japan as well as the European Union, is expected to address trade broadly — including with China — as well as critical minerals sourcing, artificial intelligence and Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

US officials told reporters on Saturday that they didn’t expect any trade-related breakthroughs with Canada or India during the summit.

European leaders are eager to use the three-day summit to quell tensions and press Trump to get on board with plans for new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The UK, France and Germany want Russia to accept an immediate ceasefire with the current front lines as the “starting point for negotiations” and robust security guarantees for Ukraine.

At the end of the summit on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will host Trump for a separate dinner at Versailles Palace outside Paris, keyed to the 250th anniversary of American independence, Macron’s office said in a statement Saturday. 

Versailles is a symbol of French-American friendship, according to the statement.

Trump hasn’t scheduled an official meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but one of the officials noted the Ukrainian president would participate in a working session with the G7 leaders. 

Trump has long had a fraught relationship with the G7 grouping of major economies. Last year’s summit of the group in Canada was also a tense affair and the president left the meeting early to manage an earlier conflict between Israel and Iran, eventually joining attacks targeting Tehran’s nuclear program.

(Updates with US comments on European defense in eighth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

That license was granted on June 11.

He told a bipartisan economic affairs committee late Friday that the gas would be extracted from Venezuela’s Loran field and processed in via the Shell-owned Manatee Platform, which will be located in Trinidadian waters.

Moonilal said final approval of the Loran project by the Trinidad and Tobago government is pending.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

CME Group Inc. announced on Thursday that it would debut 24-hour, seven-days-a-week trading in some crude and gold futures contracts. The news caught the US derivatives regulator by surprise, a senior agency official said, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential deliberations. 

Round-the-clock trading may not be suitable for crude oil because it could worsen already extreme volatility during periods of geopolitical stress, the official said, adding those concerns may justify withholding approval for the contract.

A CME spokesperson declined to comment.

The new oil-linked contract, which would be one-tenth the size of the existing Micro WTI futures contract, is slated for release on Aug. 30. The exchange wants to start round-the-clock trading in 1-ounce gold futures on July 26. Both products require regulatory review. 

The exchange’s move comes a week after CME Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy voiced “grave concerns” about the CFTC clearing a path for trading in the first perpetual futures, or “perps,” tied to cryptocurrencies. These contracts allow traders to take leveraged positions on an asset’s future price without the expiration dates that govern traditional futures contracts.

At the time, the CFTC said it would evaluate perpetual futures applications on a case-by-case basis and that some assets were unsuitable for the product. The agency has previously tolerated 24/7 trading in commodity-linked products on platforms like Kalshi.

Perpetual futures are the primary trading instrument on Hyperliquid, a crypto platform that has seen volumes in oil-linked products surge as the Iran war roils energy markets. 

Bloomberg previously reported that Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and CME were pressing US regulators to rein in the unregulated trading venue. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

There are about 127 oil tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, according to Signal Maritime data — although it warns the figure is hard to be confident of. Dozens of others have positioned themselves near the strait, to be ready to take advantage of a surge in demand if traffic resumes. 

The global energy market was pitched into turmoil when the start of the war led to the effective closure of the waterway, which usually handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. 

While that move threatened a major energy price shock, trade flows have since reorientated, governments have taken emergency measures, and a growing stream of oil is now sneaking out of the waterway under cover of darkness. Those shifts mean that while the reopening of Hormuz will still be significant, prices have already heavily retreated from their highs.

And even if a deal is signed, it’s still unclear what “reopening” of the strait may actually look like. While Trump said ships will have free passage, Iranian media has suggested Tehran will still have a degree of control. Bloomberg reported on Friday that the text of the memorandum of understanding would be open to interpretation in certain areas, according to a person familiar with the matter, including what the reopening of the strait would mean in practice. 

Several shipowners said they’d likely take a wait-and-see approach, noting that a resolution has seemed close in the past and then failed to materialize — including two months ago when both sides declared the strait was open, only for Iran to fire on vessels less than 24 hours later. Some cited recent crew deaths as a result of US strikes as a reminder of the risks of crossing.  

But some also said that once it did become clear that Hormuz was fully open, there would likely be a rush for the exit and queues near its entrance. 

In the event of a resumption of regular flows, it would spell a sudden flood of oil back onto the market as barrels that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war escape, and as Middle Eastern producers look to empty storage tanks that have filled up since the conflict began. 

Industry bodies have warned that extreme levels of traffic in Hormuz would raise the risk of crashes and ships running aground.

“There will be a little bit of a stampede,” if Hormuz reopens, said Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects.

Dark Flows Rising

Even without a peace deal, there have been growing signs that significant volumes of oil are flowing through the strait in tankers with their signals switched off — including with assistance from the US military. 

On Friday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that about 7 million barrels a day of oil is making its way through the Gulf. JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated that just over 5 million barrels a day are crossing, while one major commodity trader told a meeting of senior market analysts in Paris this week that their company sees about 4 million barrels a day crossing. 

Before the war, the strait typically handed about 20 million barrels of crude oil and fuel products, although the shortfall has also been reduced as Gulf countries reroute supplies via by pipelines that bypass the waterway.

Bloomberg reported previously that Middle East producers have been using vessels they control to ferry barrels outside of Hormuz, and transfer the oil to tankers waiting outside, before returning to the Gulf for further “shuttle runs.” 

The number of visible ship-to-ship transfers has continued to grow in recent days — Bloomberg could identify transfers in various locations off Oman and the United Arab Emirates on Thursday that would amount to roughly 16 million barrels of oil based on the size of the tankers involved, according to satellite imagery from the European Union’s Copernicus browser. 

The flows offer another sign of why oil prices haven’t spiked in the way many analysts projected when the war began. Brent futures were trading close to $87 a barrel on Friday, down more than 30% from their high in the middle of the war. 

If Hormuz did reopen, some shipowners have been busy positioning their vessels for a potential reopening, gambling on a rate surge as the number of cargoes increases and ships remain out of position. 

There are also some Middle Eastern producers that have kept vessels empty outside of the gulf, ready to get their country’s barrels moving again if and when Hormuz opens. Saudi Arabia’s national tanker giant has a handful of such ships in the middle of the Indian Ocean. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

US President Donald Trump canceled what he characterized as imminent airstrikes on Iran on Thursday, saying negotiators had made progress. A senior administration official briefing reporters Friday said there was an 80% or 85% chance that an agreement gets signed, adding that some Iranian hardliners still want to kill any breakthrough. Those internal disagreements are getting worked out, the official said. 

“The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted Friday on X. He vowed that “all details will be shared with the public in due course.” Trump reposted Araghchi’s statement. 

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that a “final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached” and that his country is working with both sides “to finalize the next steps,” in a post on X.

Yet for all the progress, there was little clarity as to what the text of the so-called memorandum of understanding will contain, with the warring sides giving conflicting descriptions. And while the US suggested the deal was essentially done, Iran has said it still needs to make a final decision. The disconnect is raising doubts about how quickly Hormuz can return to anything approaching its pre-war operations. 

One person familiar with the deliberations, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters, said the MOU will be open to interpretation in certain areas, including what the reopening of the strait would mean in practice. While Trump said ships will have free passage, Iranian media suggested Tehran will still have a degree of control.

Trump has to strike a delicate political balance: He wants to present the deal as a win to Iran hawks in his own party as well as to an American public that has increasingly turned against the war he started in late February with a joint US-Israeli bombardment of the Islamic Republic.

Vice President JD Vance appeared to be pushing back against some of those GOP hawks with a post on Friday in which he assailed “people who (rightly) said Donald Trump was a historic president a month ago now criticizing a deal based on unconfirmed media reports.”

“The president is going to get us a good outcome, one way or the other,” Vance said, vowing that Iran won’t get access to blocked funds just for signing an agreement. 

The talk of an agreement is putting more focus on the G7 summit in Evian, in the French Alps, from June 15-17. A deal could be signed on the sidelines of that gathering, according to senior officials familiar with the matter. Geneva is nearby and is being floated as a potential location for the signing as soon as Sunday, according to people familiar with the plans.

Trump indicated Thursday that Vance would represent him at any signing. A senior US official said Friday that no decisions about timing or location have been settled.  

Underscoring the still-high tension between Washington and Tehran, Trump also denied and vented his frustration about Iranian media reports, some of which said the US will unfreeze more than $20 billion of Iranian funds held in other countries.

The Iranians are “very dishonorable people to deal with,” Trump said in a social media post. “They better get their act together, and FAST!”

Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran was still reviewing the draft.

“The relevant authorities must reach a consensus on every detail of the text and any potential agreement,” a ministry spokesman said, according to Iran’s IRIB News agency. “Details regarding the manner of signing the MOU will be discussed in later stages.”

One diplomat briefed on the negotiations over the MOU said it will allow Iran and perhaps other states near the strait — a vital chokepoint for flows of oil, liquefied natural gas and other commodities — to oversee the waterway’s security to some extent. The senior US official said the US believes Iran’s control over Hormuz has weakened. 

Another diplomat familiar with the talks said the US and its allies would aim to ensure normal levels of shipments through Hormuz within about a month of a deal being signed. That may be complicated by the high likelihood of Iran having placed mines in the strait, which the UK and France are preparing to help clear.

Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted. Iran then all but closed it by firing on ships with drones and missiles. The number of vessels has crept up in recent weeks, but is still far below pre-conflict levels.

Another senior US official said it was a performance-based agreement. The main points beyond the strait being reopened, according to the official, are that Iran will relinquish or destroy its stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, dismantle its nuclear program and receive no money until it fulfills parts of the arrangement.

The interim peace deal will see the US and Iran extend their ceasefire by around two months and go into further negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. The US would lift its blockade of Iranian ports.

The war has killed thousands of people across the region, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. It has also pushed up inflation globally, hurting Trump and his party ahead of US midterm elections in November.

The terms of the deal still need to be approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, according to a European official familiar with the matter. He’s been in hiding since the conflict erupted and the main mediators — Qatar and Pakistan — have found that communicating with him can take days.

Oil prices fell and equities jumped late on Thursday when Trump said he had canceled the new strikes on Iran.

Energy dropped further on Friday. Brent futures fell as much as 5.1% to trade at the lowest level since the early days of the war, while European gas slumped as much as 8.4%, before paring gains. While the global benchmark is still up almost 50% this year, it’s fallen from a high of $125 in late April.

Mehr, an Iranian news agency, reported the deal would include the release of $24 billion of Iranian funds held in foreign banks. Trump and Iran hawks such as US Senator Lindsey Graham have previously balked at the idea of unfreezing any funds for Tehran.

Mehr also said the agreement states the US will withdraw forces from areas near Iran, lift oil sanctions and “present reconstruction plans” for the Islamic Republic worth around $300 billion.

Another potential sticking point is Israel, which is not part of the negotiations for the interim deal. The Jewish state has resisted any MOU that includes a ceasefire in Lebanon, where it’s fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, and is wary of any deal with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled he’d prefer more strikes to further degrade Iran’s military.

The US and Israel initially wanted any deal with Iran also to curb its ballistic missile program and support for Middle Eastern militant groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. It’s not clear whether that will be part of the MOU. 

Israel’s minimum expectation is now that an end-of-war deal ensures highly enriched uranium is removed from Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter. Israel will deem any agreement a failure if Iran gets sanctions relief and without giving up its processed uranium, the person said.

(Updates with US briefing from second paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The shareholder, ENN Natural Gas Co., may decide not to extend a deadline to meet pre-conditions for a take-private transaction, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. 

An announcement might come as soon as the current deadline of Friday, though no final decision has been made, they said. 

ENN Natural Gas, which owns about 34% of ENN Energy through Xinneng (Hong Kong) Energy Investment, already agreed to extend a March 13 deadline to June 12.

ENN Natural Gas made a cash and stock offer in March 2025 that valued ENN Energy at about HK$90.5 billion ($11.5 billion). The Shanghai-listed company, one of China’s main importers of liquefied natural gas, said at the time it wouldn’t increase the offer, and that it planned to delist ENN Energy afterward. ENN Natural Gas has, meanwhile, applied to list shares in Hong Kong. 

Representatives for ENN Natural Gas and ENN Energy declined to comment. 

ENN Energy has tumbled 30% in Hong Kong this year, valuing the company at about $7 billion. ENN Natural Gas has dropped 12% over the same period in Shanghai, for a market value of $8.4 billion. Its first-quarter net income fell 33% from a year earlier to 655 million yuan ($97 million). 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

China’s independent oil refiners, known as teapots, have dialed back purchases and cut operating rates as they grapple with mounting economic losses, while recent US sanctions have made some buyers wary about the Iran trade. That’s prompted sellers to slash prices to try and entice buying interest.

Iranian crude flows to China tumbled to about 160,000 barrels a day in May, down from 1.8 million barrels a day in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. US and Israeli strikes on Iran started at the end of that month.

Even if there was big appetite for Iranian barrels, the US naval blockade has choked off flows. While other producers in the Persian Gulf are getting some of their crude out through the Strait of Hormuz, consultant Vortexa Ltd. estimates no oil from Iran has transited the waterway this month.

“The Iran-to-China oil trade is facing its biggest test yet,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte. in Singapore, who has spent four decades covering the oil industry, including as a trader and consultant. 

The US blockade marks the first time a physical barrier has been put in place to hobble the Iranian oil trade, following decades of economic sanctions meted out by Washington that have often been skirted by workarounds. The volume of crude from the Islamic Republic outside of the Persian Gulf that buyers could easily access has plummeted since the blockade started in mid-April.

Overall, there are about 132 million barrels stored on tankers inside and outside of the Persian Gulf, data from Kpler shows. Of that total, at least 57 million barrels are on ships idling and in transit off China and the Singapore and Malacca Strait, a near 55% decline since the blockade.

Beijing had instructed the teapots to make fuels at all costs to help cushion the impact from the Iran war, though that mandate was recently relaxed after their losses increased. The independent processors are by far the biggest buyers of Iranian crude, typically accounting for about 90% of sales.

China’s restrictions on fuel exports early on in the conflict have led to swelling inventories, meaning refiners don’t need to keep running at high rates. Energy Aspects forecasts teapots will reduce their overall runs by another 200,000 barrels a day in June from May. Russian oil is also getting cheaper.

“China has access to a lot of other oil,” said Fereidun Fesharaki, FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus, a veteran of the oil and gas industry with decades of experience. “There is no pressure at the moment.”

Recent US sanctions on giant independent refiner Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery co. have also deepened caution around Iranian oil, with traders saying there is little incentive to take risks when margins are already thin.

The fallout is increasingly visible in Iran. Oil production slumped 19% last month and export revenues are coming under pressure, though earlier windfalls from higher prices and accelerated exports have so far cushioned the blow.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Iran War has boosted the coal-to-chemicals industry’s economics by raising the price of oil. Local officials are touting it as a key source of energy independence for China.

“Increasing production of coal-based chemical products will improve self-sufficiency in oil and gas domestically, helping to mitigate and offset energy security challenges at the industrial level,” said Huang Zhiqiang, executive vice chairman of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s government, at a press conference in the capital Hohhot on Thursday. “This reduces our reliance on imported oil and gas, lowering the proportion of foreign imports.”

The region is home to one of China’s top coal-to-chemical hubs — the city of Ordos, where the black fuel is transformed into olefins to produce plastics as well as oil and gas. The Baofeng olefins plant, which came online last year with annual production of 3 million tons, is the country’s largest, and several other major olefin facilities are under development in the area.

The Iran war has delivered a tailwind for the industry, and Bloomberg Intelligence projects coal consumption in the sector could grow as much as 20% this year.

Although the coal-based alchemy is bolstering China’s self-sufficiency, it is also undercutting the country’s climate progress. The industry’s expansion in recent years has led to rapid carbon emissions growth, climbing 12% in 2025 alone, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Inner Mongolia has also emerged as one of China’s strongest clean energy champions, boasting the country’s highest wind generation last year and a slew of green tech factories, including from leading companies Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Ltd. and Envision Energy Co. 

The region leads the country in renewable energy capacity and output, with total installed renewable power exceeding 175 gigawatts, accounting for 9% of the national total, according to Huang.

Renewable power is so excessive in Inner Mongolia that output is often curtailed due to grid bottlenecks and insufficient local demand. The local government wants to use these resources to become a major hub to power data centers and the artificial intelligence boom.

“The region will shift from resource output to computing power empowerment,” Huang said. “We will transform Inner Mongolia’s natural resources into electricity and computing power.”

Local officials said on Thursday that the region would peak its emissions on schedule, before 2030, while defending coal’s role in China’s energy system. 

“We firmly believe there’s no backward industry, only outdated technology, and so we’re fully advancing the greening of mining operations,” said Huang. “Intelligent transformation closely aligns with national planning and layout — steadily promoting a series of green, low-carbon, modern coal-chemical projects.”

(Updates with additional comments from official from the 10th paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The event delivered significant economic benefits for Calgary and area, generating an estimated $70.6 million in economic impact, supporting more than 23,000 jobs and driving over 56,000 hotel stays.

Beyond its economic impact, Global Energy Show Canada reinforced Calgary's role as a meeting place for governments, industry leaders, and investors working to strengthen energy security and expand ties with partners around the world.

“Canada is back as a serious energy country. Canada is back as a place to invest capital. And Canada is back as a country that intends to build big things again.”
- Hon. Tim Hodgson, Federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Canada

In his opening address, Hon. Tim Hodgson, Federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources reinforced that, “Canada is back as a serious energy country. Canada is back as a place to invest capital. And Canada is back as a country that intends to build big things again.”

Hon. Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta added, “We [Alberta] have the expertise, the regulatory systems and a strong commitment to responsible growth, and we're continuing to strengthen the conditions that allow investment and innovation to move forward. We welcome continued partnership and collaboration with industry, governments and investors from around the world.”

Leaders from key markets in Asia and Europe joined major producing nations and investors to strengthen relationships and explore opportunities across international energy markets. Strong participation included delegations and representatives from Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and Nigeria, highlighting growing international interest in Canada's role as a reliable energy partner. International receptions involving premiers, ministers and energy leaders further highlighted Alberta and Canada's role in meeting rising energy demand and expanding relationships with partners around the world.

Across the conference programme, leaders from government, industry and investment communities examined the commercial, geopolitical and technological forces reshaping the global energy landscape.

Responding to emerging industry priorities, the 2026 edition expanded its focus on AI and data centres, critical minerals and Canada's growing LNG opportunity. The Executive Conference adopted a new format featuring the Opening Plenary, Strategic Stage and Energy Talks, creating a forum for government leaders, CEOs, and investors to discuss the commercial and geopolitical forces shaping the future of energy.

Alongside the Executive Conference, the Energy Influencers Conference brought together industry professionals and technical specialists for discussions spanning oil and gas, new energy, AI, and data centres, highlighting the technologies, expertise, and innovation helping to drive projects forward.

As part of the conference programme, invitation-only Executive Leadership Roundtables convened ministers, CEOs, investors and policymakers to examine topics ranging from AI-powered energy demand and critical minerals to Indigenous partnerships, energy infrastructure, investment competitiveness and Canada's role in supplying global markets.

Highlighting the growing relationship between energy and artificial intelligence, Saravan Penubarthi, Chief Technology Officer, AIQ, noted that, “energy and AI are going to be by far, at least at this point, the two biggest engines of progress for humanity.”

Discussions throughout the week underscored the importance of market access, infrastructure development and international cooperation in supporting major energy projects.

Attracting foreign investments

During a media scrum, Hon. Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals, Government of Alberta, noted that, “If we [Alberta, federal government, indigenous communities and the Province of British Columbia] work together, we can actually compete with other jurisdictions that build pipelines in the span of months, not years or decades, as it happens in Canada. We need to send the notice to the world that we can build things in Canada and build them economically, efficiently, and be productive.”

The event also provided a forum for international leaders to share perspectives on Canada's role in meeting rising global energy demand. In his keynote address, Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria, said, “Nigeria and Canada have opportunities to deepen cooperation across several areas of mutual interest, including LNG development and operations, methane emissions reduction and carbon management, carbon capture utilisation and storage, clean energy technologies, energy financing, and project development. Nigeria invites Canada to partner with her [Nigeria] at this very point in time to address global energy security. We need you now more than ever.”

In a panel focused on Canada in the new hierarchy of energy powers, Hon. Dinesh K. Patnaik, High Commissioner of India to Canada, discussed Canada’s role as a trusted global energy partner, noting “how can we [India] take advantage of the fact that you're [Canada] the fourth largest resource holder in the world, you have a democratic system which is free, fair, which we can rely upon. We have the same values. We would like to do more with Canada.”

Brian Boulanger, CEO and Director of ARC Financial Corp. mentioned in a private equity and institutional investors panel, “This is the third time that I’ve seen a big green light for Canada.” He added, “everyone wants more Canadian energy.”

Throughout the week, companies, governments, and industry organisations announced new partnerships, memoranda of understanding, and strategic initiatives, further demonstrating Global Energy Show Canada's role in bringing together stakeholders from across the energy value chain.

Across the exhibition floor, more than 500 companies spanning oil and gas, LNG, power generation, critical minerals, carbon management, artificial intelligence and digital technologies displayed products, solutions and innovations while creating opportunities for business development and international engagement. Together, they reflected the scale, diversity and innovation shaping the future of the global energy sector.

What to expect in the the next edition

Nick Samain, Senior Vice President, North America, dmg events, said, “Global Energy Show Canada 2026 brought together governments, industry leaders, investors and innovators at a defining moment for the global energy sector. Across three days, we saw conversations evolve into new partnerships, stronger international relationships, and opportunities across the energy value chain.

“The strong international participation this year reflects the growing importance of collaboration in meeting the world's rising energy needs. Global Energy Show Canada will continue to provide a platform where industry, governments, and investors come together to help shape the future of energy.”

Global Energy Show Canada will return to Calgary from 8-10 June 2027, continuing its role as Canada's largest energy marketplace and a global platform connecting industry, governments and investors to advance energy security, investment and international collaboration.

In an editorial published on Thursday, the Workers’ Daily — the official mouthpiece of China’s umbrella trade union organization — urged government agencies to mount an active response as new threats emerge to the rights of employees. It called on regulators to improve labor standards and strengthen oversight of AI algorithms, including by giving a greater say to trade unions and workers’ representatives.

“The benefits of technological advancement should be shared by society as a whole, rather than becoming a tool for a small number of employers to undermine workers’ rights,” the editorial said. It was titled “With the AI ​​wave surging, how can we build a strong ‘dam’ for workers’ rights?”

The deployment of AI tools around the world presents an especial challenge for China, where employment is a politically sensitive issue and maintaining social stability is a priority for top leaders. Evidence is already mounting that the technology is causing heavy job losses in countries like the US.

As AI spreads across workplaces, China is also having to contend with chronic weakness in the jobs market — a major obstacle for Beijing’s efforts to revive confidence among households. Citigroup Inc. has estimated that China’s “widespread but still shallow” adoption of AI eventually threatens to displace 70 million workers in the country.

Pressure on the world’s biggest labor force will also build as the economy transitions toward a technology-driven growth model and away from real estate. A recent analysis by Bloomberg Economics found that while China’s pivot to high-tech and green sectors is set to create tens of millions of jobs over the rest of the decade, it also risks leaving many workers behind because of skill mismatches.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“China’s high-tech sectors are becoming an increasingly important driver of growth, but they are not generating enough jobs to offset losses in manufacturing, construction and finance. The result is elevated employment pressure, especially among young people, and a surge in ‘flexible employment’ that is masking deeper weakness in the labor market.” 

— David Qu and Chang Shu. For full analysis, click here

The looming disruption coming from AI has prompted the Workers’ Daily to publish a series of reports devoted to labor protections during what it called the “AI wave.” The newspaper was founded in 1949 — the same year the Communists established the People’s Republic of China — to act as a “voice for China’s working class,” and it remains among the leading state media outlets in the country. 

In addition to the job losses blamed on AI, the newspaper identified other problems facing employees, such as violations of personal rights through “distilling” white-collar skills.

For blue-collar labor such as couriers and drivers working for ride-hailing companies, it said the algorithms used by platforms also failed to provide adequate transparency on how they allocate orders and set unit prices, worsening inequality in the distribution of income.

The newspaper said AI adoption that aims solely at reducing the use of human labor should be approached with caution. Such decisions “should not be left entirely to market forces” and government authorities need to play a key role, it said. 

The Chinese government has reportedly started to warn employers, particularly tech companies, not to cut jobs as they adopt AI. Court rulings in Beijing and Hangzhou have favored workers in such disputes and stated that companies are legally required to retrain or reassign workers before their employment can be terminated.

The country’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said earlier this year that it would roll out measures to address AI’s impact on employment. 

(Updates with comments from Bloomberg Economics starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The funding will support construction of the first two phases of the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas, which plans to deliver 1.63 gigawatts of solar and 1.9 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, Cypress Creek said Thursday in a statement. The output will be purchased by an undisclosed technology company with substantial power needs, the company said. 

“This is going to be a bit more of the norm as we go forward with deals of this magnitude and size as we see demand in the US kind of skyrocketing,” said Kevin Smith, Cypress Creek’s chief executive officer, in an interview.

The deal underscores how solar power remains a key part of the nation’s energy mix despite President Donald Trump’s attacks against clean energy since returning to office last year.

In the first quarter, solar and battery storage made up 91% of new US power-generation capacity additions, according to a report published Wednesday by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie. The growth comes as the rapid buildout of energy-hungry data centers drives demand for new sources of electricity.

Cypress Creek purchased the Steel River Energy Center from Swift Current Energy in March. The project will draw on US manufacturing, including steel produced in Arkansas, solar panels supplied by First Solar Inc. and trackers made by Nextpower Inc., Smith said. 

Financing for Cypress Creek was led by Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, Banco Santander SA and Wells Fargo & Co.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Competition between European and Asian buyers for US LNG has intensified after the Middle East conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off one-fifth of global supplies and driving up spot prices. That’s making US firms averse to signing the 20-year contracts sought by Atlantic SEE, as it pushes to expand Greece’s role as an LNG hub for the wider region.

“US suppliers have become reluctant to commit to a price for a long period of time,” Chief Executive Officer Alexandros Exarchou said in an interview. “This is a different situation from six months ago when they were gasping for such long-term agreements.”

Uncertainty about the evolution of prices — following damage to the world’s largest LNG export terminal in Qatar — means that some US suppliers are even offering incentives to reduce the size of existing contracts, the CEO said. 

Due to the capital commitments required to build and finance US LNG projects, smaller buyers may struggle to sign long-term contracts with American sellers. Much of US output is already committed to long-term European and Asian contracts.

Atlantic SEE — a joint venture between Aktor Group and Greece’s state gas supplier Depa Commercial SA — reached a 20-year deal in November with Venture Global Inc. to import 4 billion cubic meters of LNG a year from 2030. Most of that will be shipped to regional neighbors, including 1 bcm for Albania and 0.5 bcm for Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The company is looking to conclude negotiations with Romania by the end of the summer, which will bring total supply agreements to 3.7 bcm a year, said Exarchou, who is also chairman and CEO of Aktor.

Greece’s search for US LNG deals comes as the European Union phases out flows of the fuel from Russia by the end of this year.

Should deals be reached with Bulgaria and Ukraine later this year, Atlantic SEE will seek further US LNG contracts — taking total supplies to as much as 8 bcm. The company is also willing to explore potential supply agreements with countries such as Serbia, Croatia and North Macedonia, the CEO said.

While the Venture Global deal cushions Atlantic SEE from market volatility, the price of 20-year contracts has increased dramatically, according to Exarchou.

“We’re discussing for additional quantities from various suppliers in the US,” said the CEO, who expects spot prices to climb significantly from September.

Exarchou also warned that the EU has yet to introduce targeted measures to mitigate potential winter supply risks, as the region seeks to replenish its depleted gas inventories over the summer.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Gas Umm Al Rowaisat, owned by state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp.’s shipping arm, transited the strait before transferring the LPG cargo to another vessel that is currently heading for India’s Paradip port, according to traders, Kpler Ltd., and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The tanker went dark after loading last month, reappearing near India on Sunday.

Major producers including the United Arab Emirates are increasingly switching off location transponders on tankers they control to export crude and liquefied natural gas through the strait. While shipments are well below pre-war levels, Rapidan Energy Group predicts around 2 million barrels of oil and related products are being ferried out of the Persian Gulf each day.

“With UAE-origin cargoes using this method successfully for the past few weeks, it doesn’t surprise me that others are following suit,” said Ciaran Tyler, a lead research analyst at Kpler. The UAE started using the tactic last month to ensure LPG shipments to key buyer India, Tyler said.

KPC didn’t respond to a request for comment. Kuwait also recently offered to sell its crude to refiners in Asia for the first time since the Iran war started, providing further evidence of flows getting out of the Gulf through Hormuz.

With its Automatic Identification System switched off, the Gas Umm Al Rowaisat loaded LPG on May 28 at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi refinery, according to Kpler, where KPC operates a gas processing plant. The vessel re-appeared on June 7 near Sikka along India’s northwest coast. 

Gas Umm Al Rowaisat then transferred its cargo to KPC-chartered supertanker Badrinath by ship-to-ship transfer, according to traders, ship-tracking data and Kpler. The vessel is currently signaling Paradip.

India is a key buyer of LPG and relied heavily on Persian Gulf producers for the product used primarily as a cooking gas in the Asian nation. The country has been forced to hike prices twice since the war cut off supplies. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

India, the world’s largest urea importer, drew prices that were less than half of an April tender, a sign that the global fertilizer supply strain from the war in Iran is starting to ease.

National Fertilizers Ltd., a state-run producer that also imports the nitrogen-based crop nutrient for the government, has been seeking to buy 1.7 million tons of the fertilizer variety in a tender that closed Monday. The company received offers between $444.90 and $617 a ton, according to people familiar with the matter.

Offers for the west coast totaled about 3.1 million tons above a target for 900,000 tons, and a similar quantity for the east coast versus a target of 800,000 tons, said the people, asking not to be identified due to the commercial sensitivity of the information.

A fertilizer ministry spokesperson didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment outside of business hours. 

The Strait of Hormuz is a major conduit for fertilizer trade and its near-closure since the outbreak of the war has sent global costs soaring. India paid $935 to $959 per ton to procure supply in April, close to double pre-war levels. 

However, costs in some markets have now begun to ease. That’s partly driven by weakening demand as farmers grapple with lackluster grain prices. 

India’s purchases are closely watched as a price benchmark for other importers. The decline in this week’s tender could help the country control its fertilizer subsidy bill. 

Still, the country is ramping up purchases of liquefied natural gas from the spot market in tandem, partly to meet demand for domestic urea production. That’s coming at a cost, with spot LNG prices at about $18 to $19 per million British thermal units, compared with roughly $13 per million Btu under long-term supply contracts — which fertilizer plants previously largely relied on. The gas is a key feedstock to make urea. 

India regularly turns to global tenders to bridge its urea deficit. The latest procurement is the second since the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and comes during the monsoon sowing season for crops including rice, corn and soybeans — a major planting period. 

The country’s domestic urea production was also disrupted earlier this year as the process relies heavily on natural gas, much of it sourced from the Middle East. 

India requires about 38.4 million tons of fertilizer for crops grown during the June-September rainy season, according to the fertilizer ministry. Current inventories stand at about 19.8 million tons, the ministry said.

(Updates with chart and details on LNG purchases in eighth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

This comes after the ministry had made the commitment in March this year, following H.E. Badawi’s remarks that the country was determined to deal with this issue at Egypt Energy Show 2025. Egypt had accumulated arrears of $6.1 billion by June 2024. 

However, the government began repaying these dues, which dropped to around $1.3 billion by December 2025. In May, Egypt made further payments of $714 million and then $440 million. The final settlement of $440 million was completed on 10 June. 

H.E. Badawi stated that “the accumulation of those arrears over previous years had had a direct impact on investment flows into the petroleum and gas sectors.”

Move seen as catalyst for investor confidence

He said that delays in E&P programmes, which consequently led to lower domestic production levels, widened the gap between production and consumption, and increased the country's import bill for meeting demands for petroleum products.

“It has removed one of the most significant barriers to investment inflows and accelerated development and production plans,” he said. 

Egypt has seen renewed interests in its oil and gas sector since 2024, particularly after a long period of falling production due to ageing infrastructure and underinvestments. 

Investor interest has surged in recent months, with Egypt securing over $19 billion in commitments from international oil companies for the next three years. These include $8 billion from Italy’s Eni, $5 billion from bp, $2 billion from the UAE’s Arcius Energy, and $4 billion from US-based Apache.

Sustained growth 

Since 2024, Egypt has focused on offshore exploration activities, and between mid-2024 and late-2025, Egypt recorded approximately 75 new oil and gas discoveries. During the same time period, it brought 383 wells online. 

Recognising that offshore fields are more challenging to drill and connect to the grid, H.E. Badawi said that these projects often require years of preparation and execution before reaching actual production.

But offshore development sets the stage for long-term energy growth, which could help Egypt catch up with its falling energy production. 

H.E. Badawi added that the industry is adopting new and innovative solutions to technical and operational challenges, and that “these efforts are helping to shorten the timeframes between discovery and production, maximising investment returns and enhancing domestic output and reduce the country's import bill.” 

Solar supplied 12.8% of US electricity last month while coal accounted for 12.2%, according to a report Wednesday from the clean energy think tank Ember, which analyzed monthly and hourly data from the US Energy Information Administration. 

The use of solar is surging just as the US scrambles to add new electricity sources to meet the insatiable power needs of AI data centers. The solar industry has managed to grow even as the Trump administration has taken steps to thwart its rise. It favors traditional electric sources, including coal and nuclear, which can produce power around the clock, unlike solar and wind.

“This is a structural change in the US power system,” Nicolas Fulghum, a senior data analyst at Ember, said in an interview. Companies are seeking more power, quickly, and are “looking towards solar to be a cheap, affordable and quick-to-deploy source.”

Solar generation in May surged 17% from a year earlier, while coal power shrank 11%. Still, the US remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Natural gas is the dominant electric source, with 37% of the electric mix in May, according to Ember. 

Coal, meanwhile, is seeing a surge of support from the government. President Donald Trump and his administration have vowed to keep all US coal plants running. The US Energy Department is blocking utilities from closing several aging power plants, and last week the White House pledged about $700 million in financial support for the industry.  

However, solar continues to gain share, in part due to wider deployment of batteries that can store energy from panels to be used when the sun isn’t shining, including during peak demand hours at night. Solar and storage together made up 91% of new US capacity installed in the first quarter, according to a separate report released Wednesday from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie.

That’s likely to continue, with utilities and data center developers increasingly viewing solar paired with batteries as a key energy source.   

“We are going to continue to see record battery deployment year after year,” Fulghum said.

(Updates with details on US coal policy in sixth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Inventory draws are expected to average about 1 million barrels a day in the coming months, according to estimates from Vortexa Ltd., Kpler and Energy Aspects. That’s about a third of the crude that China is no longer receiving since the conflict led to the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but still pales in comparison with the roughly 1.2 billion barrels the nation has in its commercial and strategic stockpiles. 

The price reaction to what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest oil market shock on record has been relatively muted, as China refrained from tapping international markets to make up for the lost barrels. Global benchmark Brent is up less than a third since the conflict started, with analysts estimating that the nation’s imports could remain subdued for months to come — helping ease pressure on prices.

China has filled up its inventories to unprecedented levels over the past year. It started tapping those reserves in May, and drew down almost 25 million barrels in the month to June 7, Energy Aspects said, citing data from its satellite-tracking Kayrros unit.  

While that is sizable — global consumption is just over 100 million barrels a day — weaker downstream demand has made an even bigger difference. State-owned refiners have cut processing rates to record lows, fuel exports have been constrained under wartime measures aimed at preserving domestic supply and the switch to electric vehicles has accelerated. 

“China’s transport system has become structurally more flexible than in previous oil shocks,” said Emma Li, lead China market analyst at Vortexa. The rapid adoption of EVs has contributed to a drop of about 1 million barrels a day in fuel demand this quarter, she said. 

Some observers have argued that the demand destruction may not be permanent. 

“They were building a strategic petroleum reserve, now they’ve stopped building, they’re releasing some from their reserves. They have turned down their refineries, so that’s producing less products,” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in Washington on Tuesday. “That’s in response to a crisis, that’s not a permanent change.”

China’s strategic reserves are a tightly held secret, with long-range targets and widespread use of underground storage obscuring the picture. Market participants have been reliant on satellite imagery and third-party estimates to try to fill the gap.

While Beijing has continued adding to its SPR during the war, refiners have increasingly relied on commercial inventories rather than fresh imports, according to analytics firm Kpler. Exactly how much crude has come from state stockpiles remains unclear, given the opacity.

“We cannot completely rule out some SPR utilization,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining supply and modeling at Kpler, adding that less-visible underground reserves may have been used to replenish more observable storage facilities that supplied barrels to the market.

Chinese state refiners are expected to resume purchasing on international markets once they “meaningfully tap reserves,” said Jianan Sun, a London-based analyst at Energy Aspects. “But government authorization, subject to Beijing’s outlook on Hormuz, will be needed before sizable buying returns.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.-owned company will focus investment on projects that combine solar and wind generation with batteries, rather than standalone assets that are becoming less profitable, Chief Executive Officer of Neoen’s local arm Jean-Christophe Cheylus said during an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of Australian Energy Week.

Australia’s energy transition has drawn billions of dollars from global investors as developers race to replace an aging coal fleet with renewable generation. That’s helped make the country’s battery fleet one of the world’s largest, but the boom has crowded out some of the revenue streams that once made them profitable.

“We are at an inflection point, and maybe we will see just more hybrid generation, or more batteries combined with generation, rather than batteries standalone,” Cheylus said.

“I think it’s going to be more challenging for standalone batteries to define their business case,” he said.

Neoen currently has more than 4 gigawatts of renewable energy projects in operation or under construction in Australia, representing over A$7 billion invested since 2012. That’s after the company sold its Victorian state portfolio to HMC Capital Ltd. in late 2024, clearing the way for a takeover by Brookfield.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In May, Canada’s government and Alberta agreed steps and a timeline for a potential new west coast oil pipeline. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said a huge carbon-capture project dubbed ‘Pathways’ is a central condition for that new oil infrastructure.

But the deal fails to address regulatory barriers to the industry’s capital spending, Cenovus Energy Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jon McKenzie said Tuesday.

“Neither the Pathways project nor the west coast pipeline really make any sense” without that fundamental capital investment, he said at the Global Energy Show in Calgary.

The Alberta-Canada deal didn’t address how the industry was going to ship an extra million barrels of oil a day while also spending capital on the Pathways project, which he said would cost as much as C$30 billion ($21.5 billion), he said. No agreement on the project has been reached.

In one of the oil industry’s strongest rebukes of the “grand bargain” Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have discussed — a pipeline tied to emissions-abatement policies — McKenzie told the audience that the current regulatory framework means the “pipeline is unfinanceable” by the private sector.

The Alberta-Canada deal is partly aimed at fixing the province’s malfunctioning carbon market, and the province agreed to annual increases in the headline price on carbon. Its credits and offsets were trading last week at around C$32 per metric ton of CO2, according to Albert Ho, head of carbon intelligence for Carbon Assessors. That’s well short of target prices, and even down from about C$40 per metric ton when the deal was announced.

McKenzie’s comments stood in stark contrast to an earlier speech from Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson, who touted the pact with Alberta as establishing “a carbon market that works” to give investors long-term certainty, and “a practical middle ground.”

“It’ll show that energy production and emission reduction can move forward together” if Canada can cut carbon intensity in one of the world’s major oil-producing regions, he said.

Smith’s Alberta government is currently the proponent of the new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast. Her deal with Carney says the pipeline could be designated a project of “national interest” and construction could start as soon as September 2027.

Smith echoed Hodgson in a speech of her own. “There is increasing scrutiny and concern” about how energy is produced, she said, adding that Alberta would focus on “maintaining a stable, reliable supply of energy while continuing to reduce emissions and support innovation.”

Cenovus’s McKenzie argued that the certainty the Alberta-Canada deal provides is that it shows Canada is “increasingly out of step and uncompetitive.”

But “none of our customers have ever suggested or even asked about the carbon intensity of our crude,” McKenzie continued. If that was the case, pricing signals would be clear in the market, and government intervention wouldn’t be needed, he said.

The escalating carbon tax scheduled over the next decade “will require the premature shut-in and reclamation of oil-producing projects that would otherwise be economic to produce,” McKenzie added. “Industry has been clear that the industrial carbon tax is insidious and it should be revoked.”

(Updates with quotes from McKenzie, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and Canada Energy Minister Tim Hodgson)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

What are the ways in which global utilities can address the challenges and opportunities surrounding energy transition, energy security, and digitalisation?

These three challenges, which are indeed also opportunities, are interconnected, and utilities must address them as a system rather than in silos. In order to deliver decarbonisation and reliability simultaneously, utilities need to diversify their low-carbon generation portfolios by pairing variable renewables with firm capacity from nuclear, including small modular reactors, geothermal (where accessible), and/or long-duration energy storage. Further, digitalisation needs to be viewed not only as an operational upgrade, but as a key enabler of the transition. Deploying AI-enabled grid management, distributed energy resource management systems, and virtual power plants can unlock significant flexibility from existing infrastructure without massive capital buildouts. Utilities should also not treat rising demand from data centres, EVs, and industrial electrification as a threat to the current grid, but rather as an opportunity to build the grid of the future, one that is cleaner, more distributed, and more resilient.

With energy security a dominant theme globally, how can utilities support an “orderly” energy transition that leaves no one behind?

An orderly transition requires managing the pace and sequencing of change so that reliability and affordability are maintained. The IEA is projecting an unprecedented 3,500 TWh increase in global electricity consumption through 2027, with demand rising at nearly 4% annually. Much of this growth comes from data centres and EV infrastructure that do not directly serve the broader communities bearing the cost of grid expansion. Utilities are now at the centre of what the IEA calls a new “Age of Electricity,” with electricity consumption set to increase rapidly as electrification reshapes buildings, transport, and industry. Therefore, balancing the benefits and potential burdens of such electricity demand growth must be carefully considered. Data centre operators, for instance, should bring new, dedicated clean generation capacity as a condition of development rather than competing with existing ratepayers for constrained supply. At the same time, solving renewable electricity intermittency remains a key energy security issue as the share of electricity from solar and wind within energy systems continues to grow rapidly. The Masdar round-the-clock project in Abu Dhabi combines 5.2 GW of solar PV with a 19-GWh battery system to deliver 1 GW of firm, uninterrupted power. This demonstrates that solar-plus-storage can function as a dispatchable baseload, pointing to the future of affordable, reliable, clean electricity that needs to be replicated and scaled globally.

What are the most viable pathways for utilities to integrate hydrogen into the existing energy infrastructure?

For utilities, perhaps the most relevant use of clean hydrogen is for long-duration energy storage. As grids deal with ever-larger shares of variable renewables, the need for multi-day and seasonal balancing begins to exceed what lithium-ion batteries can provide economically. Utilities can produce green hydrogen via electrolysis powered by very low-cost clean electricity from large-scale solar, wind, or nuclear and then store and reconvert it through hydrogen-capable turbines or fuel cells as needed. This makes the economics of green hydrogen production a direct utility concern, fundamentally tied to procuring the least expensive form of long-duration energy storage, which hydrogen may or may not provide depending on context.

Of course, the strongest case for hydrogen is as a feedstock in refining, ammonia, and methanol production. Utilities therefore play an important enabling role by structuring tariffs, interconnection, and power procurement arrangements that let electrolysers operate as flexible loads on low-cost clean power, helping underpin bankable clean hydrogen supply for these industrial offtakers.

What are your thoughts on the role of CCUS in helping decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors?

Carbon capture remains a key decarbonisation technology for industries like cement and chemicals, where process emissions cannot be eliminated through efficiency and electrification coupled with clean electricity. What has changed recently, however, is the growing need for carbon capture to mitigate emissions from the power sector.

The resurgence of gas-fired generation to meet AI-driven electricity demand means utilities are now building new natural gas capacity that needs to be capture-ready. We are already seeing models where gas turbines pair with carbon capture systems designed to remove 90% or more of CO₂ emissions. However, the challenge remains to build viable business models for carbon capture, particularly when CO₂ utilisation and/or geological storage are not readily available. Without credible carbon pricing, offtake agreements for captured CO₂ or regulatory mandates, capture technologies will not scale. The technology works, but the economics need deliberate policy support.

The supertanker Kiara M was tracked off Sohar in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after loading about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude last week. The vessel likely exited the strait over the past day with its positional transponder switched off, a tactic used to avoid being targeted. 

Further indications of improving flows emerged as Kuwait offered crude directly to Asian refiners for the first time since the war began. At least 4 million barrels are being marketed to buyers including refiners in China and South Korea, with the cargoes said to have already cleared the strait, though they have yet to register in tracking data.

Diplomatic momentum has also improved. US President Donald Trump said the US is nearing a deal with Iran that could bring the conflict to a close, though Israel has continued to express concerns over the long-term security implications of any agreement.

Visible flows remain muted for now. Apart from the Kiara M, five other commercial crossings were observed on Monday. Activity slowed on Tuesday morning, when only two crossings were visible in the waterway, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Alongside the supertanker, Monday’s outbound traffic included a bulk carrier and a containership. A China-linked fuel tanker followed on Tuesday, heading out of the strait.

The US blockade of Iranian vessels in the Gulf of Oman is continuing to reshape regional shipping movements. American military officials said Monday that 134 commercial ships had been redirected and complied, while US forces disabled an empty oil tanker on June 8 after it tried to sail to an Iranian port in violation of the blockade.

Inbound commercial traffic on Monday was limited to three Iran-linked ships. An India-linked bulker entered on Tuesday.

Ongoing disruptions to AIS transponder signals continue to obscure shipping activity, leading to frequent revisions in transit counts as vessels resurface beyond higher-risk areas and fresh information becomes available.

The US naval presence may also be distorting the observations. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time.

Even before the US barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca — around 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.

NOTES: 

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

Please note that the Hormuz Tracker now includes an NSUB sign-up option. The manual code is NI HORMUZTRAK.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

From July 1, Gordon Birrell will be executive vice president of upstream, while Richard Harding will take on the same role — in an interim basis — for downstream, the London-based major said in a statement. No job losses were announced.

The reorganization, which O’Neill signposted to staff soon after joining, follows a turbulent two weeks for the company that saw the surprise firing of non-executive chairman Albert Manifold. It unwinds structural changes made by then-CEO Bernard Looney in 2020 when he pivoted the firm toward low-carbon ventures and away from fossil fuels. It also moves BP closer to the models of other majors.

The new structure, with one operating segment focused on resource development and production, and the other on customers and markets, “will clarify accountabilities and enable faster, more effective decision-making,” O’Neill said in an announcement on Tuesday.

O’Neill is under pressure to deliver on a turnaround kicked off by previous CEO Murray Auchincloss last year. The company’s shares had underperformed those of rivals for years, drawing in activist shareholder Elliott Investment Management, which helped to kick start a reboot.

BP’s vast trading operation, led by deputy CEO Carol Howle, will work across the two segments, where “it connects the portfolio, optimizes flows and delivers material value uplift,” BP said.

Birrell’s operating segment will be in charge of oil and gas exploration, development and production, upstream joint ventures, as well as renewable natural gas, carbon capture and sequestration businesses. He’s been the London-based firm’s top exploration and production executive under multiple CEOs.

Harding’s division will include refining, terminals, pipelines, retail fuel stations, biofuels, aviation, hydrogen and lubricants. A recruitment process is underway for a permanent hire to the role. Harding came out of retirement in April.

Alongside the two main upstream and downstream segments will be several support functions. 

Renewables, including solar and offshore wind, will sit within a technology function led by Emeka Emembolu, executive vice president of technology. 

The reorganization is designed to clarify who owns what, speed up decision-making and make BP easier to understand both internally and externally, the CEO told employees in an internal message on Tuesday seen by Bloomberg. 

Four people who were in Birrell’s leadership team prior to Tuesday’s announcement will be leaving by the end of the year, according to people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile BP Trinidad president David Campbell and Gulf of America vice president Roger Bryce will make up Birrell’s new leadership team, the people said.

In response to the moves, BP referred back to its statement.

More changes are expected to roles and team sizes, which BP leaders will share with staff as they develop, O’Neill told employees in the message.

Howle was already elevated from running trading to O’Neill’s deputy, an expanded remit that added oversight of the company’s ongoing portfolio review and strategy development to her responsibilities. She also occupied the position of interim CEO following the unexpected ouster of Auchincloss before O’Neill arrived.

“The structure restores clearer upstream accountability and aligns with peers,” Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth said in a note on Tuesday. “We see this as positive, but execution and delivery remain key.”

BP’s revamped company structure comes after the shock sacking of Manifold in late May — about eight months after he joined and soon after the major hired O’Neill, Big Oil’s first female CEO. 

O’Neill and the rest of the board voted unanimously to remove him due to concerns about “governance standards, oversight and conduct.” Manifold contests BP’s version of events.

O’Neill told staff on an April call that she was focused on rebuilding trust with employees, which some said was received well after faith in senior leadership plunged in recent years, people familiar with the matter said at the time. 

She’s been given a tailwind at the start of her tenure, with energy market volatility caused by the Iran war contributing to a surge in profits from BP’s trading operation. 

Meanwhile, the company is continuing its strategic pivot back to oil and gas. Priorities include selling under-performing assets, paying down debt and reducing costs. BP suspended its share buyback program in February before O’Neill arrived.

“This organizational change builds on the concrete actions BP is taking to simplify its portfolio, reduce costs, maintain tight capex discipline and strengthen its balance sheet – all in service of growing value and returns for shareholders,” BP said Tuesday.

(Updates with details of restructure from 11th paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Exports jumped more than 19% from a year earlier, the most in three months and higher than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Imports soared over 27% in May, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday, leaving a trade surplus of $105.4 billion — the biggest since January. 

Chips and computers contributed to about half the growth in both exports and imports, Bloomberg calculations showed. Overseas sales of semiconductors soared 111% to $36 billion, the fastest expansion since 2013.

The strong export growth “suggests continued support from AI-related hardware demand and possibly some front-loading of overseas orders amid geopolitical uncertainty,” said Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International Holdings. “Strong export performance is providing a meaningful buffer to domestic softness.”

The global AI infrastructure buildout has emerged as a key force propelling Asian trade this year, cushioning the impact of a global energy crisis stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. It’s leading to a huge windfall for companies like the South Korean giant Samsung Electronics Co. as well as lesser-known Chinese hardware suppliers such as Zhongji Innolight Co., a maker of optical modules critical to data centers. 

Outbound shipments of computers and parts soared 66% in May from a year ago, the fastest pace since 2010 and up from a 47% gain in the previous month. High-tech exports climbed 51%, the most since 2021. 

Much of the surge came as a result of soaring chip prices at a time when a global race among tech giants to build data centers is leading to a shortage that could last for years. In volume terms, China’s chip exports rose only 2%.

In another sign of the impact from the AI rush on the world’s No. 2 economy, South Korea’s semiconductor exports to China jumped over 200% in May from a year earlier. China still relies on imported chips as restrictions imposed by the US block its access to many of the machines needed to make advanced semiconductors. 

Apart from AI hardware, car exports continued to post solid growth at nearly 40%. Automakers have no choice but to step up efforts to sell overseas, as domestic sales plunged 22% in May from a year ago in the sixth straight month of double-digit declines. 

What Bloomberg Economics Says ...

“The report allays concerns that the Iran war is taking a toll on China’s export engine, and highlights increasing linkages between the global tech cycle and trade flows.”

Eric Zhu, economist; read full report here

Exports to the US rose almost 36% — the most since 2021 — extending their recovery after a long streak of double-digit declines during the tariff war started by Donald Trump. The increase may have been exaggerated by the statistical effect of a low base from a year ago, when China and the US were locked in tit-for-tat tariff hikes that at one point brought levies to over 100%.

Export growth accelerated across most major regions in May, with the exception of the European Union and Latin America. Shipments to the Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group soared nearly 25% and climbed almost 19% to Africa. 

Though China’s sales in the EU expanded less than 8%, its imports from the bloc shrank for the first time in three months, meaning the trade surplus actually grew slightly and remained above $30 billion in May.

The imbalance will do little to soothe trade tensions with Europe. Officials there are preparing the ground for possible new tools to counter China’s export surge, which they partly blame on insufficient domestic demand, an undervalued currency and generous subsidies.

Back home, the AI boom is driving K-shaped expansion across China’s trade, factory production and industrial profits. In contrast to high-tech exports, overseas sales of traditional items like clothes and toys declined by 4% and 7% in May, respectively.

The divergence complicates China’s economic policymaking, as a large portion of the economy is still suffering from anemic consumer demand, even as some factories in AI-related fields prosper. 

The export strength is potentially making Chinese authorities more comfortable with a stronger yuan. In contrast to labor-intensive products, high-tech exports are less sensitive to domestic currency appreciation. 

With the cost of oil, chips and metals sharply on the rise, China’s export prices jumped at their fastest rate in three years in April, a reversal from years of an almost-unbroken contraction. But such increases have yet to spread to most Chinese goods, suggesting intense domestic competition still limits what factories can charge buyers.

And despite being the world’s biggest oil importer, China is buying far less crude from abroad, with inbound shipments falling 5% in the first five months of 2026 from a year ago in volume terms. 

“The external demand engine remains one of China’s key drivers,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV. “Domestic demand, though, continues to lag behind.”

(Updates with additional details throughout, adds comment in final paragraph. An earlier version of this story corrected month in second paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent crude slipped toward $93 a barrel after closing slightly higher on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was around $90. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country is holding fire against Iran for now, but will respond should Tehran attack again. Iranian media conveyed similar sentiment.

The flare-up in hostilities put wider negotiations to end the war in the Middle East at risk, prompting President Donald Trump to appeal for de-escalation. A fragile ceasefire remains in place, but the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington, choking off supplies of crude, fuels and natural gas to global customers.

Reflecting remaining risk in the region, an unladen oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman was disabled by US forces on Monday after it “violated” the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port, US Central Command said on X. Israel’s military also intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” from Yemen.

Late Monday, Trump said the US will declare “total victory” in its war with Iran over the next two weeks, according to comments in a virtual campaign rally for South Carolina Republicans. He said that negotiations are underway with Tehran, and reiterated that oil prices will fall once the conflict is over.

Disruptions from the war have led to a sharp decline in China’s crude imports. Inbound shipments last month plunged to the lowest level in more than eight years as the conflict crimped supply and Beijing held off scrambling for replacement barrels, leaning on its inventories and refinery run cuts.

Even if a US-Iran peace deal is agreed, multiple hurdles will impede normal resumption of oil flows. Among them, mines in Hormuz must be removed, shut-in fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired.

Oil remains “headline driven,” said Al Salazar, head of oil and gas research at industry consultant Enverus. “We believe prices still need to be firmly in triple digits to account fully for depleted stock levels.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Crude imports fell to around 33 million tons in May, according to customs data, equating to 7.8 million barrels a day, the lowest since October 2017. The country imported an average of around 11.6 million barrels a day over 2025.

The world’s biggest crude importer has leaned on export curbs, refinery run cuts and drawdowns from its massive inventories to cope with the impact of the loss of most Gulf barrels. This has helped ease pressure on global prices, with analysts estimating China’s imports could remain subdued for months to come. 

While China has continued adding to its strategic petroleum reserves during the war, processors have increasingly relied on refinery-held inventories rather than fresh imports, according to Kpler.

State-owned refiners have cut processing rates to record lows, while fuel exports remain constrained under wartime measures aimed at preserving domestic supply. Gasoline and diesel sales both posted double-digit declines in April as higher crude prices and slowing demand from China’s increasingly electrified vehicle fleet weighed on consumption.

Chinese imports of Iranian crude — a key feedstock for the country’s independent refiners — have also fallen as deteriorating margins, tighter US sanctions and Washington’s blockade of the Islamic Republic’s ports curb flows. 

Refining margins have narrowed since late April as processors exhausted cheaper feedstocks purchased before the war, according to industry consultant JLC. Product exports picked up slightly to 3.37 million tons last month, but remain at a multiyear low.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

QatarEnergy had prided itself on never missing a delivery to customers, even through the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. But the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US and Israeli attack on Iran, followed by the Iranian missile strikes on Ras Laffan on 18 March, gave it no choice. A few LNG cargoes have since escaped the Gulf, but anything close to normal operations is far off.

Upending the LNG momentum

The attacks have upended an LNG story which seemed quite clear for the next few years. A vast wave of LNG expansion was on the way, mostly from Qatar and the US. Prices would fall significantly, and sellers would have to offer better terms and fight for long-term customers. Europe would predominantly buy US LNG to cover for the phase-out of the remaining volumes of Russian gas, while Qatari LNG would mostly go to Asia.

Buyers would enjoy a competitively-priced fuel, less polluting than coal, and a valuable complement to renewables because of its flexibility. LNG demand growth was seen as strong, though it would still have to be reasonably priced to win markets in middle-income Asian countries. Methane leakage and the long-term role of gas in economies with net-zero carbon goals were important concerns.

Perhaps surprisingly, the impact of missiles on Ras Laffan has not totally changed this picture. Assuming there is no return to full-scale fighting, the loss of Qatari capacity is serious in the short term but can be made up within a year or two.

The short-term outlook

His Excellency Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy, has said that the damaged trains, with a capacity of 12.8 million tonnes per year (MTPA), about 17% of Qatar’s total, cost $26 billion to build. The repair time could be from three to five years, given the need for long-lead items. On 26 May, Japan’s Chiyoda announced that it would resume work on Qatar’s 32 MTPA North Field East LNG expansion, costed at $28.75 billion. North Field South and North Field West were supposed to start up in 2028 and 2031, respectively, a schedule now likely to have slipped.

Prices have risen sharply, of course, with the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) up from $10.4 per million British thermal units (MBtu) just before the war, to $18.7 over the weekend. But this is far from the dizzying levels reached during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022. So far, the market has coped fairly well, with countries boosting renewables, switching back to coal, and bringing in efficiency measures.

Concerns remain over the refilling of European storage. Stocks emerged from last winter at a low point, and have to hit 70-80% by October to assure security. On the whole, this looks achievable. The emerging strong El Niño should mean warmer global weather, diminishing the risk of a cold winter where householders would burn through a lot of gas.

A burst of higher prices and buyers’ desire to diversify will advance some liquefaction projects that had appeared doubtful. The US has nearly 100 MTPA of projects awaiting a final investment decision. The resurrection of Alaska LNG, a 20 MTPA project, is the most notable. Argentina, where Abu Dhabi’s XRG signed a framework agreement in February, Browse, Australia’s largest undeveloped resource, and Abadi in Indonesia, are candidates too.

Africa should benefit. Tanzania, with major fields but plagued by years of unfavourable government policies, could move ahead. TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil will be keener to advance their northern Mozambique ventures, which have been delayed by insecurity. The significant resources offshore Senegal and Mauritania, which today host only a single 2.5 MTPA facility, could be further exploited.

Conversely, buyers will be worried about depending on LNG. Pre-war, Qatar, the US and Australia accounted between them for 60% of global LNG supply, a far greater market dominance than for OPEC+ in oil. That oligopoly should gain even more market share with the American and Qatari expansions.

Even if the Strait re-opens promptly and fully, there is always the risk it could be closed again, or liquefaction attacked. Unlike oil, LNG cannot bypass the Gulf.

Rise in overseas LNG portfolios

And the US could be an unreliable supplier in its own way, with random threats against previous friends, the wielding of tariffs and sanctions, and the possibility of export restrictions if domestic gas prices rise too much. China, in particular, cannot rely on US LNG. Even national oil companies, such as QatarEnergy and ADNOC, are expanding their overseas LNG portfolios to be able to serve customers, regardless of events in the Gulf.

Asian buyers will therefore opt for coal, either domestic or from a more diverse global supply base, despite its polluting nature. And they, along with Europe, will forge ahead more aggressively with renewables. Falling battery costs make wind and solar much more realistic options for day-round power. Gas’s role will shrink to longer-term backup for electricity generation, home heating in legacy buildings in cold climates, feedstock in heavy industries such as fertilisers and iron and steel, and shipping fuel.

So the LNG glut we expected in January is likely to be delayed, spread out, and longer and deeper. Sellers will need to work harder to attract customers, with flexibility, lower prices and greater assurance of supply security. Buyers need nerve to get through the current crisis, and then cashing in. It is a strategic challenge Al Attiyah would have relished.

• Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis 

But rising electricity demand and the hurdles facing offshore wind means the gap that the transmission line helps fill is only getting bigger. 

“The question is, is it big enough to make a huge dent?” said Rob Gramlich, founder and president at consulting firm Grid Strategies. “And I think as the needs keep growing, no single line like this can make a major dent anymore.” 

The 339-mile long transmission line, backed by Blackstone Inc., can transmit up to 1,250 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 1 million households. It’s expected to deliver about 10.4 terawatt-hours of clean energy annually to the New York metropolitan area and to decrease CO2 emissions by an average of 3.9 million metric tons per year, the equivalent of removing 44% of passenger vehicles from New York City. 

The state’s climate targets are ambitious, even after Governor Kathy Hochul struck a deal last month to water down its landmark climate law. It’s still aiming for 70% of the electricity on its grid to be renewable by 2030. Excluding the Power Express, that share is now 32%, according to the state’s climate dashboard. 

The Power Express was one of the first projects that Hochul pushed for, said Ken Lovett, the governor’s senior communications advisor on energy and environment, and she “remains strongly committed to a clean energy future.” 

The line was designed to get more clean energy directly to New York City. But the city’s power demand is expected to rise as climate change makes summers hotter and building owners replace fossil-fuel heating systems with electric heat pumps to comply with Local Law 97. The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, projects that electricity consumption in the city will increase by 23% by 2050.

“We’re going to have to push farther on every front,” New York City Comptroller Mark Levine said in an interview. “Mega projects like offshore wind, micro projects like rooftop solar in the city, innovative projects like geothermal wells.” The city’s pension funds have committed to invest $50 billion in climate solutions by 2035, Levine noted. 

New York’s challenge is part of a broader shift taking place across the US. After years of relatively flat electricity demand, grid operators and utilities are revising forecasts upward as electrification increases. Data centers and other large power users are putting new strain on grids, pushing states to build power plants and transmission infrastructure faster than anticipated. 

Since the Power Express began development, a complementary buildout of offshore wind has faced hurdles as President Donald Trump moved to block that sector. The Interior Department halted construction on Equinor ASA’s Empire Wind off Long Island before a judge allowed it to proceed. More recently, the Trump administration paid TotalEnergies SE $1 billion to cancel wind projects, including one off the coast of New York, a move that the state is challenging in court. 

Nevertheless, Empire Wind and another project serving New York customers, Sunrise Wind, are on track to be completed by 2028, said Harrison Sholler, a renewable energy analyst at BNEF. He doesn’t expect any additional offshore wind capacity to come online unless there is major policy change. But BNEF projects that about 20 gigawatts of solar capacity and 6 gigawatts of onshore wind capacity will  be added to New York’s grid over the next decade. 

Even with the Power Express online, the grid is still likely to experience strain during summers ahead. NYISO projects that New York City’s so-called transmission security margin will fall into a deficiency by 2029, meaning the grid would no longer meet reliability standards under certain conditions without additional resources. 

As new projects enter service, “reliability margins improve substantially,” NYISO said in a report, but then they start to erode as demand increases. 

“There’s no escaping the reality that significant load growth makes it harder to meet climate targets, and that’s just a reality that most states are facing,” said Gramlich. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.