The Toronto-based company said it signed a non-binding term sheet for a private placement involving a warrant, which would allow Gillon Capital LLC to acquire enough common shares to own 55% of the company on a fully exercised basis, according to a statement Wednesday.

Sherritt expects that the exercise price will be at a discount to the company’s closing price May 15. The company, which operates nickel and cobalt mining and refining businesses tied closely to Cuban state partners, on Tuesday reversed course on plans to unwind its operations in the Caribbean country. 

Shares of Sherritt, which trades as a penny stock, rose 9% in early trading in New York.

Gillon Capital is the family office of Ray Washburne, a real estate executive whom Trump appointed in 2017 to head the Overseas Private Investment Corporation before later naming him to the Presidential Intelligence Advisory Board.

Sherritt said it has “engaged constructively” with the US Department of State, which confirmed no objections to Gillon Capital’s engagement with the company, according to Wednesday’s statement. The Department of State and Department of Treasury don’t view the negotiations as contrary to US law, the statement said. 

Last week, Sherritt said it was considering steps to relinquish its 50% stake in a Cuban nickel-and-cobalt mine, as well as surrender its interest in an energy joint venture with the state. On Tuesday, it backtracked on that decision and flagged it was evaluating a “potential value preserving opportunity.”

Sherritt operates nickel and cobalt mining and refining businesses tied closely to Cuban state partners and has long depended on the country for a significant portion of its production.

The company has been in turmoil since Trump signed an executive order earlier this month targeting non-US individuals and entities doing business in Cuba, which has faced sweeping US sanctions since the 1960s. The upheaval triggered a wave of departures, including three board members and the chief financial officer, and triggered a plunge in its share price.

(Adds details from sixth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent traded below $111 a barrel, after losing 0.7% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate was below $104. Trump said that the Iran war is going to end “very quickly” and that Iran “wants to make a deal badly” at the White House Congressional Picnic. 

Trump’s remarks followed earlier comments that the US “may have to give them another big hit” if Tehran rejects American peace terms, less than a day after he said he had called off an attack. The comments renewed concerns over a return to hostilities, though traders remain cautious after repeated threats of military action since the April 8 ceasefire failed to materialize.

When asked how long he would wait, Trump said: “I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week — a limited period of time.”

“Markets need the threat to be a lot more imminent,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research, Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities. 

Oil also fell alongside broader markets, as mounting inflation concerns fueled a rise in global bond yields. With US 10-year bond yields rising well above 4.5%, markets may have a greater incentive to bet on Trump backpedaling, Varathan said.

Now in its 12th week, the war has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving global energy prices and inflation higher. The US also seized an Iran-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean overnight — at least the third such seizure targeting Tehran’s shadow fleet, the Wall Street Journal reported.

With no resolution in sight, news that NATO is discussing escorting ships through the strait should the route remain closed past early July also weighed on futures. Investors have increasingly priced in a prolonged closure, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. poll earlier this month — meaning a NATO-led effort could return supply to market faster than expected.

At a meeting in Beijing on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, state news agency Xinhua reported, as the two leaders sought to reinforce ties amid the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, White House officials are holding firm against restricting oil exports even as domestic inventories dwindle. An industry report indicated US crude stockpiles dropped by 9.1 million barrels last week, which would be the biggest decline since September if confirmed by official data due later Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a massive Brent crude put options bet equivalent to 134 million barrels traded in a single block. That rattled a market already on high alert for unusual flows.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

According to a landmark report by AVEVA and IMD, while 74% of leaders in such companies consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially with ecosystem partners. According to the report, the gap between ambition and execution leaves trillions in potential industrial intelligence untapped just as companies need it most.

Building and scaling business ecosystems

The inaugural report, jointly produced by AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software,  and IMD, the global business school, is titled Industrial Intelligence Report on Digital Ecosystems and the Future of Connected Industries, and was launched at AVEVA World 2026 in Milan on Tuesday.

In a fireside chat during the opening ceremony, Caspar Herzberg, AVEVA CEO, spoke with IMD Professor Mike Wade about the findings from over 275 interviews with leaders across 12 different sectors worldwide. Encompassing both quantitative analysis and detailed interviews with experts from the Port of Rotterdam, Kwinana in Australia and many others, the report distils how organisations can harness their industrial intelligence to build, orchestrate and scale business ecosystems.

The report reveals that while 74% of leaders consider digital ecosystems a top strategic priority, only 27% report sharing data substantially or extensively with ecosystem partners. Several illustrative case studies also emphasize the gap between ambition and execution: integration complexity, legacy systems and weak governance.

Industrial intelligence in action

The report found that organisations are increasingly seeking to construct digital ecosystems to confront higher-order business challenges - whether that is innovating faster, navigating supply volatility, or decarbonising complex global operations.

Yet, the gap between digital ecosystem ambition and execution remains wide. “With this collaboration with IMD, our ambition is not merely to understand the motivations behind the move to digital ecosystems, but to define the frameworks, competencies and leadership practices that will concretely enable companies to transcend silos and build more adaptive, ecosystem driven operating models,” Herzberg said.

AVEVA and AWS announce collaboration

During AVEVA World, the company also announced a multi-year strategic collaboration agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to accelerate the delivery of industrial intelligence in the cloud. The agreement deepens the companies’ existing relationship and establishes a framework for joint technology development, go-to-market execution, and customer migration support across the global industrial sector.

Under the terms of the agreement, AVEVA will expand its CONNECT industrial intelligence platform on AWS, as part of its broader move to a multi-cloud architecture. By bringing CONNECT and the broader AVEVA portfolio to AWS, the two companies aim to give industrial customers a faster, more scalable path to cloud-native operations, reducing the complexity and cost of managing on-premises infrastructure while enabling new AI-driven capabilities that were previously impractical at scale.

AVEVA and IFS to advance AI-powered asset intelligence

AVEVA also announced a technology partnership with IFS to enable complex industrial organisations to connect operational intelligence, enterprise execution and strategic capital planning. CEOs Caspar Herzberg and Mark Moffat shared the first wave of the collaboration at AVEVA World in Milan: Continuous Asset Decision Intelligence. This new solution is designed to turn real-time operational and asset data into smarter maintenance, investment and execution decisions across the integrated asset lifecycle. The benefit for customers is simple: less guesswork and timelier, evidence-based decisions.

AVEVA and Snowflake to unify IT/OT data ecosystems

As a part of the event, AVEVA also announced a collaboration with Snowflake, the AI data cloud company, to transform how industrial organisations unify, govern, and activate data across IT and OT environments. The collaboration establishes a direct, zero-copy integration between CONNECT, AVEVA’s industrial intelligence platform, and Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud, enabling customers to securely access, analyse, and activate industrial and enterprise data without the need for complex data pipelines or costly integration projects.

“Industrial customers need fast, secure access to trusted data across operational, engineering, and enterprise domains to support decision-making at scale,” said Rob McGreevy, Chief Product Officer at AVEVA. “Through this collaboration, we are extending our cloud-scale intelligence capabilities and enabling data to be accessed and used without duplication, helping bring operational intelligence into enterprise-wide decision within an open, partner-led ecosystem.”

According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, power demand set a second consecutive annual record at 4,195 billion kWh in 2025, with projected rises to 4,248 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,379 billion kWh in 2027.

As well as data centre demand, the EIA says the increase is also driven by homes and businesses using more electricity and less fossil fuels for heat and transportation. However, it says power demand growth is led by the commercial sector, which is expected to outpace residential demand in 2027 for the first time.

Data centre energy appetite

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says data centres globally currently consume 485-500 TWh of power annually, accounting for about 2% of global electricity demand.

This rise in global demand reflects a rapidly increasing trajectory, primarily driven by the AI boom. As a result, projections indicate AI-specific hardware consumption will triple by 2030, nearly doubling overall data centre power use in that period.

The IEA says the AI-energy nexus is continuing to evolve rapidly, with capital expenditure by the largest technology companies exceeding $400 billion in 2025 and anticipated to rise a further 75% this year, fuelling data centre growth.

“Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production,” said the agency. 

IEA satellite tracking found cutting-edge AI data centres more than tripled capacity in the past 18 months.

AI efficiencies in context

The IEA said worldwide data centre electricity demand rose by 17% in 2025, in line with its projections. 

AI energy efficiency per task is improving at a rate "unprecedented in energy history," due to software and hardware advances.

However, this is offset by the increasing use of new energy-intensive AI applications, such as video generation, reasoning, and agentic tasks, which the IEA says can consume thousands of times more energy than simple text generation.

Managing bottlenecks

The agency said bottlenecks across energy supply chains have tightened since its last report amid a wave of data centre applications and a broader trend of rapid load growth and electrification, as the AI ecosystem scrambles for electricity and grid connections.

“An individual server rack within an advanced data centre is only the size of a large refrigerator, but by 2027 it could have peak power demand equivalent to that of 65 households,” the report noted.

The IEA suggested a possible upside in its mid- to longer-term outlook for data centre power demand, driven by investments to relieve bottlenecks across energy equipment and chip manufacturing.

On-site gas power is emerging in the US as developers bypass slow grid connections, with 15–27 GW expected by 2030, though the IEA cites uncertainties, such as a global gas turbine supply crunch.

Driving power innovation

Scaled battery storage could be critical to ensuring reliable supply to AI training and model-use data centres that induce large, rapid power swings.

The IEA predicts that 20-25 GW of global battery storage could be installed by 2030. With the right incentives, this could become a grid asset in the broader AI-driven acceleration of electricity sector deployment and innovation.

The agency cautioned that data centres could be a prominent flashpoint for concerns around energy prices.

But the IEA report also highlighted that AI has potential as an important tool in enhancing energy security and sustainability, such as optimising existing grid capacity.

However, it warned that the energy sector is yet to fully seize these opportunities.

An IEA survey of companies found that a lack of digital skills was the single largest barrier to greater AI adoption in the energy sector, while globally, less than half of energy demand was covered by policy frameworks promoting AI uptake in the sector.

According to the agreements, QatarEnergy has acquired an 18% interest in block OFF-4, while Shell holds 32%, and APA Corporation retains the remaining 50%.

QatarEnergy has also acquired a 30% interest in block OFF-2, which is operated by Shell with a 70% interest. 

For the third exploration block, OFF-7, QatarEnergy has acquired a 30% interest, with Shell retaining 40%, and Chevron holding the remaining 30%. 

Expansion into Uruguay’s upstream sector

His Excellency Mr Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said: “We are pleased to strengthen our relations with our strategic partner Shell through these agreements, which mark our first entry into Uruguay’s upstream sector while further expanding our footprint in South America.”

H. E. Minister Al-Kaabi added, “We would like to thank the Uruguayan authorities for their support, and we look forward to working with our partners on this opportunity and to achieve positive results for the benefit of all parties.”

Blocks OFF-2, OFF-4, and OFF-7 are offshore along Uruguay’s Atlantic coast. They cover areas between 11,155 and 18,227 square kilometres, with water depths from 40 to 4,000 metres.

These are the reasons why the UAE is doubling down across the value chain and building partnerships to drive an energy secure, prosperous future, H.E. Dr Al Jaber told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday during a virtual interview on the state of global energy markets amid geopolitical disruption, and how to achieve energy security, stability, and resilience in an era of volatility and uncertainty.

In a wide-ranging conversation with Helima Croft, Managing Director and the Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, H.E. Dr Al Jaber also laid out the staggering macroeconomic toll of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – from soaring inflation to severe energy under-investment, and described the ensuing energy crisis as an “everything story” that threatens the entire modern supply chain.

Despite these unprecedented challenges, H.E. Dr Al Jaber highlighted ADNOC’s operational resilience and explained the strategic rationale behind the UAE’s historic decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. He also invited the energy industry to convene in Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC to better understand the lessons from the energy crisis and develop new avenues of long-term collaboration. 

Here are edited excerpts from the conversation:

You have been extremely vocal about the cost to the global economy of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Can you give us your latest thoughts on the cumulative impact of this crisis?

The closure of [the Strait of] Hormuz is the most severe supply disruption on record. So far, the world has lost over a billion barrels of oil. And that number goes up by almost 100 million barrels every single week. Brent is trading at 40% above pre-closure levels. And Hormuz, as we all know it, is not just an oil story. It is, in fact, an everything story. Think about it. We're talking LNG, jet fuel, fertilisers, ammonia, urea, aluminium, helium, critical minerals, plastics, consumer goods, and other general cargo products. In other words, the entire supply chain of the modern global economy from the food on your table to the planes in the sky to the chips in your phone. Fuel prices are up 30%, fertilisers are up 50%, airfares are up 25% – every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load.

And this is now flowing into the macro numbers.

Global growth outlook has been cut to 3.1% for 2026. Inflation is already pushing past 4%. One stat really stands out. Just over 80 days into this conflict and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies. Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows. And full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

"When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand. We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia."

This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished. If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences.

The costs you've laid out are absolutely stunning and I would argue still underappreciated by many watchers of this war. I want to ask you specifically about the impact on the UAE.

I'm sure everyone here knows how well we managed the situation. But yes, and of course, we were affected. And I am sure you will agree that this was an illegal, erratic, unhinged and unprovoked attack. We never called for this. In fact, we did everything to prevent it from happening.

The UAE was targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones, more than any other country in this conflict. Every single target was civilian, airports, terminals, refineries, gas-processing plants, residential areas, shopping malls, and most recently, the Barakah nuclear power plant. Now, whether carried out directly or through proxies, this was a terrorist act and a dangerous escalation. It showed a criminal disregard for civilian lives in the UAE and across the region.

And what we will remember from these months is not the missiles or the drones. It is in fact the millions of small acts of courage by people, nationals and residents, who kept our country running. And I am sure that you would agree this is a testament to the UAE's leadership that put people above everything else.

Could you talk more specifically about ADNOC operations? Can you talk about how your company has been resilient through this crisis?

When it comes to ADNOC, as you know, some of our facilities were directly targeted and our infrastructure was directly hit. But this is exactly the kind of scenario our systems have been tested to withstand.

We kept supplies flowing and worked closely with our partners and with our customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever we could. We redirected volumes through the East Coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia.

We are also working with our partners, in particular our partners in Asia to expand and restock strategic storage to strengthen resilience against future shocks. And we continue to adapt our commercial strategy to ensure our products remain very competitive, reliable, and attractive to customers around the world.

The best proof of how we have adapted to the situation is in our financial results. Even in this environment, every one of our listed companies has achieved strong returns, many of them outperforming market expectations and analysts. That tells you something important about the robustness of our business, the strength of our strategy, and the strength of our nation.

In March, you talked about the lessons that we need to learn from this experience. Can you talk about how we come back from this better?

A few things have really stayed with me from the last few months. First, resilience matters a great deal. In fact, it is a critical success factor. It may seem expensive until the day you need it. And when you need it, it becomes priceless.

Second, AI must be built in, not bolted on. In a crisis, the speed of insight and the speed of decision-making is the difference between continuity and disruption.

Third, energy security is no longer just about the ability to continue to produce. It is about routes, access, storage and redundancy. Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few choke points. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. And it is why we moved ahead with our second pipeline in 2025. Today it's already almost 50% complete and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027.

And that leads me to one of the biggest lessons, investment. As a sector and as an industry, we are dangerously under-invested. Upstream investment is sitting at around $400 billion a year, which barely offsets natural decline rates. Global spare capacity is around three million barrels a day. It should be closer to five. And in just two months, the world drew down around 250 million barrels from storage. We have 30 to 35 days of effective cover. We need to at least double that.

And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions.

There has been a lot of conversation about the UAE's decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+. Can you walk us through the sort of rationale behind that decision and what you hope will be the benefits of taking that choice?

The UAE is entering a new chapter of growth. This was a sovereign strategic decision made with clarity, passion, conviction and full confidence. We want greater flexibility to invest. We want greater flexibility to grow, to expand, to partner, and to create long-term value. Because ultimately, real strength is not measured by the abundance of resources, but by how they are harnessed to serve the nation. It is about how you use them to build industries, create opportunities, and safeguard the economy for future generations.

The bottom line is we didn't move away from something. We moved toward something. We are moving toward a world that needs more energy. With demand for oil staying well above 100 million barrels into 2040s, the world needs more of what the UAE produces. And that is the lowest cost, lowest carbon barrels out there. And now we will have the flexibility to place more crude with customers everywhere.

"And one final lesson this period revealed is who our real and true partners are. When the pressure rises, you quickly see who stands firm, who stands with you, who actually steps up and shows up. In a crisis, partnerships are your real strategic reserves. A lot of lessons were learned, and I am very much counting on all of you coming to Abu Dhabi in November to participate in ENACT and ADIPEC in order for us to be able to drill down and get an engagement that will allow us to better understand these lessons learned and develop new avenues of developing long term solutions."

At the same time, we in the UAE need more energy to move at the speed of our ambition. In particular, natural gas is increasingly strategic, not only for our business, but for power generation, AI infrastructure, manufacturing, advanced industries and economic growth.

Ultimately, this was not a reaction or a rupture and not directed against anyone or any institution. For us, responsibility does not end with membership. Outside OPEC, the UAE will remain what it has always been, a disciplined, responsible, credible reliable and a stabilising force in the global energy markets. We will keep engaging, we will keep talking, and we will keep showing up for our friends and partners when and wherever they need us.

Can you talk about the relationship with the United States? How has it evolved and where do you see it going? And how does it encompass all the things you've talked about in terms of AI, investment, security?

The relationship between the United Arab Emirates and the United States is becoming more integrated, more ambitious, and more consequential every year. We have a strategic partnership across technology, investment, industry, infrastructure, energy, defence, and much more.

Last year, bilateral trade reached a record of $39 billion. And the UAE remained America's largest export market in the Middle East for the 17th consecutive year. The investment story is even more impressive. We have invested more than $1 trillion in the United States, with more to come over the next decade. Our energy investments, for example, through ADNOC, XRG and Masdar now total more than $85 billion across 19 states.

The US remains a top investment priority for us simply because of its unique infrastructure, its unique combination of rich energy resources, deep capital markets, and pro-investment regulation. Through XRG, we already have significant assets from the Rio Grande LNG terminal to 18 chemical sites across the US through Nova Chemicals, Covestro, and Borouge. And we are currently proactively and actively exploring opportunities with many of our partners. Some of them do exist as partners and some new partners.

Our approach is simply across the whole energy value chain, with special emphasis on the gas value chain from upstream shale to regasification terminals and the distribution network. And of course, our relationship extends beyond energy. This includes AI and AI infrastructure, data centres, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, financial services, and much more.

We invest in America because we believe in America. We believe its energy resources, its capital markets, its innovation ecosystem, and its people, and the quality of the ecosystem that has been created that helps attract investments. The UAE and the United States are not just trading partners. We are co-investors in the economy of the next century. And that is a partnership built on trust, not on transactions. 

The idea has support from several members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but doesn’t yet have the necessary unanimous support, said a diplomat from a NATO country. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Leaders from NATO countries will meet in Ankara July 7-8.

“The political direction comes first, and then the formal planning happens after that,” said Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe, when asked about the possibility at a Tuesday press conference. “Am I thinking about it? Absolutely.”

Such a move would represent a shift in the military alliance’s strategy toward the US-Israeli war in Iran. Thus far, allies have insisted they would only be involved in the strait once fighting has stopped and they can form a broad coalition that includes many non-NATO countries. 

But economic woes are deepening, with the strait’s closure sending energy prices soaring and growth forecasts tumbling. 

It’s unclear exactly how NATO countries could guarantee safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait. A recent US attempt to do that was halted within days of being launched, despite Washington’s considerable military capabilities.

A spokesperson for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Iran initially blocked the Strait of Hormuz — which transits roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies — after the US and Israel began bombing the country in late February. 

The passageway has since become a source of tension between the US and its European allies in NATO, who refused to heed President Donald Trump’s demands that they help reopen the strait. 

Trump has repeatedly fumed about the reaction and Washington recently announced it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany. 

The senior NATO official said that while some allies still oppose authorizing an alliance mission for the strait, they would rally around the idea if the blockage persists. 

The NATO diplomat said that several allies do support intervening to help reopen the strait, but cautioned that others are still reluctant to be dragged into the conflict.

Some NATO members like Spain have been unequivocal in their opposition to the war. Madrid even barred the US from using its airspace and bases to attack Iran. 

Most allies, however, have quietly granted access to their bases to provide logistical support. 

A coalition led by France and the UK is also developing a plan to help secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once the fighting abates. Some countries have even positioned assets in the area in preparation.

That hasn’t been enough to placate Trump, whose anger has been specifically targeted at Germany. So far, however, the US has made no formal request for NATO involvement in the strait, Bloomberg previously reported.

(Updates with Alexus Grynkewich comment and additional context starting in the third paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The SunZia wind farm in New Mexico, providing 3.5 gigawatts of power capacity — enough to power one million homes annually — will be operational as soon as June 15, according to people familiar with the matter. The project includes a 550-mile transmission line carrying electricity to Arizona, and has been in the works for two decades.

The Pattern Energy Group LLC development is likely to be one of the last in a shrinking pool of blockbuster deals to reach fruition, with President Donald Trump’s government ending lucrative federal tax incentives and delaying permitting for renewables. The Pentagon is also sitting on a growing backlog of dozens of proposed US wind farms and withholding authorizations key for developing the power projects.

A spokesperson for Pattern Energy declined to comment.

Roughly 5,000 wind turbines are awaiting final approval from the US administration, according to a research last month from consultant Wood Mackenzie. Failure to clear projects currently held by the Department of Defense may reduce installations by 17% through the end of the decade, or by about 7 gigawatts, the report said.

SunZia will provide a key source of power ahead of what is forecast to be another hot summer across California and Western US states that will strain the grid. Drought and a moderate snow pack over the winter is set to reduce the amount of hydropower in the region, so wind could help provide a key source of relief.

US clean-energy installations are forecast to hit another record this year, despite facing policy opposition from the federal government. SunZia lined up $11 billion of funding in the last days of 2023.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Surging demand from data centers, population growth, rising incomes and more battery-powered vehicles are all boosting demand for electricity, researchers wrote in BNEF’s annual New Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The report concludes that rapid electrification is set to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

“So far this decade, the world has suffered three substantial shocks to the energy system: the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and, most recently, the conflict in the Persian Gulf,” the analysts wrote. “Successive energy market shocks could be a boon for the energy transition as some countries look to decouple from imported fossil fuels and bolster their energy security.”

BNEF’s analysis is based on two potential future outcomes. The Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) is based on what is most likely to happen based on prevailing economic forces. The Net-Zero Scenarios (NZS) assumes climate policies are the main driver — in other words, it is underpinned by what governments have said they committed to at the Paris Agreement to lower emissions. 

In the ETS, where green policies exist but governments aren’t prioritizing them, solar and wind power both continue to increase their share of the global power mix. Solar becomes the largest contributor in 2032, while wind becomes the second largest in 2034, both displacing coal which is currently at the top spot.

This increase in renewable energy is supported by the deployment of batteries, which will be needed to store clean electricity for times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. BNEF increased its projection for global energy storage from 220 gigawatts in 2025 to 2,000 gigawatts by 2035. While China is expected to see the biggest share of battery deployment for the next few decades, the ETS scenario also forecasts huge demand in India and Europe starting in the 2030s. 

BNEF’s analysis, based on recent carbon emission trends, shows that the world is on track to miss the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C from pre-industrial levels. Under the ETS, the planet will heat up 2.4C by 2050, with emissions from two of the three biggest polluters — India, Southeast Asia and Latin America — continuing to rise. China, the world’s biggest emitter, will see its emissions fall, after having peaked in 2025. 

Even if the world reaches net-zero emissions by 2050, the projected warming by the end of the century is likely to be above 1.8C, higher than the 1.75C BNEF projected in 2024. 

Other major takeaways from the report:

• Both scenarios will see increasing spend on the energy transition. In the ETS, investments are set to rise 34% from $2.3 trillion in 2025 to $3.1 trillion average annually for the rest of this decade. The NZS requires a doubling to $4.8 trillion in the same period.

• In the ETS, oil demand peaks around 2029, driven by electrification of road transport. Gas demand continues to rise through 2050 and becomes the biggest source of primary energy by the 2040s, displacing oil.

• Despite almost $500 billion of equity investments in next-generation climate technologies, such as carbon removal, advanced batteries and geothermal, none have yet to mature to the commercial stage.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The government is considering several options for the state-rescued company, including an initial public offering or a sale, according to a notice published in the Financial Times. No final decision has been made on the scope, timing or structure of a potential transaction.

Uniper was nationalized during Europe’s energy crisis after Russia cut gas supplies to the continent, leaving Germany’s largest importer of the fuel facing massive losses and forcing Berlin into a multibillion-euro bailout. 

Privatizing the company could allow the government to recover part of those costs, though it’s uncertain whether taxpayers would recover the full amount.

A sale may face objections from labor representatives. Employees favor a re-listing and “we continue to categorically reject an off-market sale,” Martin Geilhorn, head of Uniper’s workers council, said by email.

Germany began preparing Uniper’s return to private ownership last year, saying it preferred an IPO while also evaluating alternative options. Potential bidders that have shown early interest include Equinor ASA, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EPH and Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.

Before its 2022 nationalization, Uniper was owned by Fortum Oyj. The Finnish utility told Bloomberg that it would be “interested in assessing the opportunity” to buy its Swedish hydro and nuclear assets. Fortum has a so-called right of first offer for these plants until the end of this year that was secured during the sale, it said. 

The German government and its advisers have also spent months examining a potential merger with Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, another energy company nationalized during the crisis, producing multiple reports as the review process dragged on.

Time is increasingly becoming a factor. Under European Union rules, Germany must cut its stake in Uniper to no more than 25% plus one share by the end of 2028. A similar divestment process is expected for SEFE.

Interested parties have until June 12 to declare their interest to advisers JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Group AG.

(Updated with Fortum comment in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Bay Area university town of 120,000 is the first in the US to require sellers and buyers of single-family homes to replace fossil-fuel appliances or make other green upgrades as a condition of sale. It’s one of several cities leveraging real estate transactions to achieve carbon-emissions reduction targets as the Trump administration eliminates climate action. Austin, Minneapolis and Portland, Oregon, are among municipalities that require home sellers to obtain and disclose the results of energy audits to encourage voluntary efficiency improvements. 

Berkeley, though, is mandating that such upgrades happen. “What Berkeley is doing holds a lot of promise in terms of being a very effective way to increase the rate of retrofits as homes are sold and turn over to new owners,” said David Ribeiro, director of local policy for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a nonprofit research organization. 

The city has long pioneered environmental policies that have later been adopted across the country, from curbside recycling in the 1970s to a ban on polystyrene-foam takeout food containers in the 1980s. Berkeley voters in 2006 set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 and buildings are the city’s second-largest source of carbon pollution after transportation, according to Ammon Reagan, the sustainability program coordinator for the city’s energy office. 

“Natural gas is the biggest source of building emissions and the biggest emission savings are from heat pumps,” he said. 

A 2024 report from RMI found that single-family homes account for 58% of US building emissions. “The evidence that we have is that just energy disclosure requirements prompt some behavioral change,” said Erin Sherman, a buildings policy expert at nonprofit RMI, which promotes decarbonization. 

Berkeley’s Building Emissions Saving Ordinance (BESO) took effect in January and gives credits for a home’s low-carbon systems with a minimum score of six credits needed. Home sellers must disclose their score and make any needed changes before a sale or the buyer must do so within two years. 

A heat pump is worth six credits, as is upgrading a home’s electrical system to make it heat-pump ready. Solar panels and batteries achieve three credits a piece if they’ve been installed within five years. An EV charger, induction stove and heat pump clothes dryer score two credits each. Homeowners also must also obtain and disclose an energy audit and a high score from the assessment gets two credits.

Electric-powered heat pumps don’t burn fuel to warm a home. Instead, they extract heat from the outside air and then circulate it through the home. They cool homes by reversing the process, removing hot air from inside the house and venting it outside. 

While they’re highly efficient, they aren’t cheap. Replacing a gas furnace with a heat pump in the Bay Area can run about $25,000. A heat pump water heater costs around $7,500. And rewiring an older house and upgrading the electrical panel so heat pumps can be installed can set homeowners back more than $40,000. 

Sellers can opt to defer such work to the buyer and each party puts $2,500 in a city escrow account to be used by the purchaser to come into compliance. If upgrades aren’t made in two years, the deposit is forfeited.

Reagan said that since January the city has received 80 escrow deposits, while 57 homeowners certified their prior compliance with BESO. Only nine applications for certification were for heat pumps installed this year in preparation of a sale.

Brokers said the emissions mandate is starting to change the dynamics of the market as BESO scores appear on listings. 

“Homes that are already electrified will be perceived as more move-in ready,” Berkeley broker Megan Micco said in an email. “Homes that defer everything effectively carry a hidden cost that informed buyers will factor into their offers.”

Micco listed the $1.25 million Mediterranean Revival whose upgrades let her highlight the house as “fully BESO compliant.” A mile away, agents recently held an open house at another 1930s Mediterranean bungalow, a smaller dwelling with a low BESO score priced at $898,000.

“Sellers typically aren’t going to do anything on that BESO list unless it’s related to being able to get insurance as they’re thinking about aesthetic improvements,” said broker Jen Wolan as she stood in the foyer of the home.  “

She noted that potential purchasers of her nearly million-dollar listing would be “one of the more budget buyers in Berkeley” and unlikely to have extra funds to electrify the house. So the sellers are considering spending as much as $9,000 to replace some older wiring to increase the home’s BESO score. 

“We're really excited any time we get listings that already have these upgrades because then we do advertise that,” she said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Middle East conflict, which has disrupted gas supplies and lifted prices, is pushing buyers to “refocus” on alternative providers like Australia, said Sheffield, managing partner at Formentera Partners LP, which is helping develop wells in the country’s Northern Territory.

“They’re not going to want to rely on the products coming out of the Gulf,” he told Bloomberg at the Australian Energy Producers Conference in Adelaide on Tuesday. “Australia is sitting on a massive resource and I think a lot of buyers are going to rethink and think about diversification.”

While most of Australia’s production comes from conventional gas assets, the country also holds vast shale resources — trapped in more complex geology — that could be unlocked with the right technology.

Formentera received an investment commitment of up to $619 million in March from Japan’s Inpex Corp. to expand shale-gas exploration across Australia. Inpex will acquire 68,000 acres within Formentera’s 1.9 millon net-acre position in the Beetaloo Basin in the country’s north.

Local gas prices are currently “in the sweet spot” to make the venture viable and the firm will need to drill a few more wells for mid-stream companies to have the confidence to build a pipeline linking the Beetaloo project to processing plants, Sheffield said. He added Australia is an attractive investment destination for international investors, including Americans.

Australia remains one of the biggest exporters of gas globally. It “has a strategic geographical advantage” to supply Asia, where strong liquefied natural gas demand growth is expected through 2050-2060, according to Cecile Wake, the head of the Australian arm of Shell PLC, who spoke at the same conference.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

More than 70 days into the 2026 Middle East conflict, global energy markets have moved from acute disruption into a stabilised crisis regime, one in which disruption is managed but not resolved.

At the centre of the disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) — close to 20% of global oil consumption, and around 20% of global LNG trade — typically transits. This disruption — described by experts as the largest oil supply disruption in history by affected volumes — has acted as a real-time systemic stress test, triggering immediate shocks across oil and gas markets, freight and insurance costs, and industrial supply chains.

Despite the scale of the shock, the system has largely stabilised through a combination of rerouting (approximately 6 mbpd of bypass capacity), strategic stock releases, and demand adjustment, offsetting much of the estimated 6.7 mbpd of disrupted flows. However, 65–70% of Hormuz-dependent volumes remain non-divertible in the short term, which underscores persistent structural vulnerability.

Market dynamics have been driven by expectations rather than actual shortages. Brent crude experienced sharp price swings, including increases of over 40% during the initial phase, while European gas benchmarks, particularly Dutch TTF, rose by approximately 15-25% in the initial shock phase, driven by LNG rerouting toward Asia, before stabilising. At the same time, freight rates and insurance premiums surged, reinforcing logistics as a key constraint.

The shock has propagated beyond energy into the wider economy, with uneven impacts across petrochemicals, fertilisers, aviation, and manufacturing. Overall, the crisis is accelerating a structural shift from efficiency-led optimisation toward resilience-led system design. Energy security is increasingly defined not by access alone, but by the ability to manage disruption across molecules, electrons, and data in real time.

The Hormuz factor: the systemic fault line

The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy system. Approximately 20 mbpd of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products transit the Strait daily, representing close to one-fifth of global oil consumption, alongside roughly 20% of global LNG trade.

This creates extreme concentration risk: a single maritime corridor, less than 40km wide at its narrowest navigable point, effectively functions as a global macroeconomic lever. Its partial disruption immediately propagated across Asian and European markets, with Asian LNG importers in Japan, South Korea, China, and India experiencing spot market tightening, while European gas markets reacted through upward pressure on Dutch TTF pricing.

The impact extended beyond hydrocarbons. Delays and rerouting affected petrochemical feedstocks, fertilisers, food supply chains, and critical mineral logistics. Rising ammonia and fertiliser costs increased agricultural inflation risks, while petrochemical volatility disrupted plastics, industrial materials, and manufacturing inputs globally.

The Strait’s closure demonstrated that maritime chokepoints are no longer transport corridors only, but strategic nodes through which energy, food, industrial production, and inflation shocks are transmitted simultaneously.

Market volatility and pricing the war premium

As the crisis deepened, Brent crude markets rapidly embedded a geopolitical war premium, with sharp price swings, including increases of over 40% during the initial phase. Price formation reflected uncertainty over the magnitude and duration of the disruption and its impact on transport reliability, rather than over immediate production shortages. Historical precedent reinforces this dynamic.

During the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facilities, a disruption of approximately 5.7 mbpd triggered a 15-20% surge in Brent crude prices, one of the largest single-day increases in decades, showing the non-linear sensitivity of oil markets to perceived supply risk. In 2026, Brent pricing similarly reacted to three overlapping uncertainties: the magnitude of supply disruptions, route uncertainty, and conflict duration.

European gas markets, particularly Dutch TTF, recorded forward pricing increases of approximately 15-25% in the initial shock phase, driven by anticipated LNG diversion away from Europe toward Asian demand centres. Even in the absence of immediate shortages, TTF pricing reflected tightening marginal LNG availability and increased competition for Atlantic basic cargoes.

Freight markets reinforced this effect, with LNG shipping rates rising significantly and crude tanker spot rates increasing materially, reflecting reduced effective fleet capacity due to longer voyage cycles and rerouting constraints.

This illustrates a defining characteristic of modern energy markets: expectations move faster than molecules. In tightly interconnected systems, anticipated scarcity is priced before physical shortages materialise.

Pipeline bypass and logistical agility of the Gulf

Despite severe disruption, global supply systems remained operational due to the Gulf’s redundancy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (approximately 5 mbpd capacity, with technical capacity up to 7 mbpd) enabled partial Gulf-to-Red Sea rerouting, while the UAE Abu Dhabi- Fujairah pipeline added approximately 1.5 mbpd of export capacity outside Hormuz.

Together, this provides approximately 6 mbpd of bypass capacity under stress conditions, which arguably marked the first major live test of Gulf bypass infrastructure at scale under real crisis conditions.

However, even at full utilisation, 65-70% of Hormuz-dependent flows remain structurally constrained, reinforcing the persistent vulnerability to single-node disruption in global energy logistics.

Supply chain fragmentation: the force majeure era

Disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure rapidly cascaded far beyond energy markets into global industrial supply chains, triggering widespread force majeure declarations across energy, petrochemicals, LNG shipping, and downstream manufacturing. Kpler vessel tracking and industry reports indicate that the disruption led to widespread congestion across LNG and tanker flows, with significant cargo delays and vessel backlogs forming within the Gulf and at key downstream hubs such as Fujairah, Singapore, and Rotterdam. These delays reflected not only rerouting but also systemic congestion across tanker fleets, port operations, and extended voyage cycles.

Petrochemical markets experienced immediate feedstock volatility, with prices increasing by up to 40% due to inventory tightening and delivery uncertainty. Global fertiliser markets rose in parallel by 15-30% in the initial disruption phase, driven by ammonia and gas feedstock constraints, with sharper spikes in urea during peak stress periods, reinforcing downstream agricultural inflation pressures.

A particularly sensitive transmission channel emerged in aviation. Jet fuel prices more than doubled, reflecting refinery rebalancing between diesel and jet production and tighter Gulf-linked supply logistics. Airlines faced dual pressure from higher fuel costs and operational inefficiencies caused by rerouted flight paths and constrained refuelling hubs. Given aviation’s limited storage capacity and just-in-time fuel procurement model, cost increases were rapidly transmitted into operating costs, increasing the cost per available seat kilometre (CASK), particularly for long-haul carriers dependent on Gulf and Asian hubs.

Manufacturing sectors exposed to energy-intensive inputs saw mid-single- to low-double-digit increases in input costs, depending on energy intensity and supply chain exposure. Disruptions to delivery schedules and feedstock availability further amplified inefficiencies in industrial production cycles across chemicals, metals, and industrial materials.

Overall, the force majeure environment evolved into a multi-sector transmission shock, in which energy disruption propagated simultaneously across petrochemicals, agriculture, aviation, and manufacturing, with stranded cargoes serving as a physical indicator of global supply chain desynchronisation.

The strategic pivot: building resilience

The first 60 days of the Middle East conflict reinforced a structural lesson: systems optimised for efficiency under stable conditions are not inherently resilient under stress. As a result, a strategic pivot toward resilience is underway as a core organising principle of global energy systems.

This is increasingly expressed through geopatriation, as governments and companies seek greater strategic control over energy, technology and industrial assets. This is driving localisation of supply chains and expansion of domestic industrial capacity in critical sectors. Energy infrastructure itself is evolving away from rigid centralised models toward more adaptive architectures, including districted energy systems, battery storage, flexible load management, and AI-managed microgrids that reduce reliance on single points of failure and improve overall system responsiveness under disruption.

These adjustments reflect a system shifting from supply adequacy to transport and insurance scarcity.

Beyond distributed systems, AI has also emerged as an operational resilience tool in constrained infrastructure during routine operations. In hydrocarbon systems, ADNOC’s AI-enabled platforms (ENERGYai and Neuron 5) integrate predictive maintenance, upstream optimisation, production forecasting, and digital twins to reduce unplanned shutdowns, improve asset utilisation, and strengthen operational reliability under routine stress. ADNOC reports that these tools have halved unplanned shutdowns and cut planned maintenance by approximately 20%, illustrating how digital intelligence can improve efficiency and system reliability under normal operating conditions. While there is no evidence that these systems directly mitigated the Strait of Hormuz crisis, their predictive and optimisation capabilities could help preserve operational continuity during disruptions.

Global grid investment is projected to exceed US$600 billion annually by 2030 as countries modernise energy systems to accommodate electrification, digitalisation, and growing resilience requirements.

More fundamentally, the system is moving from reactive crisis management toward proactive system design. Energy security is increasingly defined by the ability to respond dynamically to physical and digital disruptions across interconnected infrastructure, market and information systems.

The 2026 conflict, therefore, has not simply exposed vulnerabilities within the global energy system but accelerated its redesign. Energy security is no longer defined solely by access to resources, but by the capacity to manage disruption across molecules, electrons, and data.

• This Market Outlook report was produced as a part of ADIPEC’s Energy & Geopolitics series. For more information and coverage, visit: https://www.adipec.com/press-media/insights/

The Danish company will provide Hive Hydrogen, a joint venture between the UK’s Hive Energy Ltd. and South Africa’s BuiltAfrica Group, with electrolyzer and ammonia synthesizing equipment, Hive said in a statement. The project, scheduled to start up in 2030 and to produce a million tons of green ammonia a year, is expected to cost more than $5 billion.

South Africa, with ample solar and wind power potential, is vying with competitors including neighboring Namibia to become a leading producer of green hydrogen, which is being touted as a way to decarbonize heavy industry and shipping. It’s generated by using renewable energy to split water molecules, yielding hydrogen, which is then synthesized into a clean-energy source. Hive’s project at the port of Coega is the most advanced of major investment plans using the technology in the country. 

The efficiency of the equipment “means we can reduce capital expenditure on renewables by over €0.5 billion ($583 million),” Giles Redpath, Hive Energy’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. 

Still, critics are skeptical about whether production costs can fall sufficiently for green hydrogen to viably compete with conventional, carbon-intensive fuels like diesel.

The plan is to install an 850-megawatt electrolyzer using Topsoe’s Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cell technology. Hive expects to produce green ammonia at a sales price at its export port of $650 a ton. It has previously said the plant is intended to serve export markets such as Japan and South Korea. 

Hive said it’s seeking additional investors and lenders for the project.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a so-called general license waiver, which now extends to June 17. The release confirmed an earlier Bloomberg report. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X that the new general license “will help stabilize the physical crude market.”

The decision underscores the pressure President Donald Trump’s administration faces to rein in higher fuel costs and address a global supply crunch caused by the war.

Bessent also said the move will “provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea.” He added that “we will work with these nations to provide specific licenses as needed.”

The Treasury previously issued two general license waivers covering the same activity. The initial waiver, issued in March, expired after 30 days. Bessent had said it would not be renewed, only to reverse the decision a few days later. The second waiver expired on May 16.

The decision may frustrate European allies, which see sanctions against Moscow as essential to starving it of the revenue it needs to continue the war in Ukraine. 

But Asian nations that import large amounts of crude have lobbied for extended relief from sanctions. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“India should prioritize control over technology and resources, even if domestic options are 5-10% costlier at initial stage, to avoid the supply chain vulnerabilities currently seen globally,” the state-run company’s Chairman Gurdeep Singh said at a workshop organized by the Power Ministry, according to an official note.

Calls for self-reliance and supply diversification are once again gathering pace in India, as the major importer of oil, gas and fertilizers reels from the energy and commodity disruptions caused by the Iran war. The South Asian nation is among the worst-hit from the squeeze, its pain compounded by a sliding currency, and has taken a series of measures to cushion its economy.

The comments also come after India overhauled its nuclear law to attract investment into a sector that it counts as crucial to meeting its net zero goal by 2070. The country has about 9 gigawatts of nuclear power projects and aims to expand it to 100 gigawatts by 2047, as the new law paves the way for fresh financing from both state-run and private firms. 

Most of India’s existing fleet uses locally designed reactors, while the 2-gigawatt Kudankulam plant in the country’s south that’s powered by Russian reactors is the only one using foreign technology. 

Talks with other foreign suppliers, including Electricite de France and Westinghouse Electric have continued for years without reaching any final agreement to start project construction.

NTPC’s Singh also pointed to hesitation at provincial levels over nuclear safety as another potential hurdle for expansion. 

Companies need states’ consent to acquire land as well as get various local government clearances to start projects. Acceptance of nuclear energy remains inconsistent among the 14 states that NTPC is actively engaging with, necessitating greater public outreach to bring the states on board, the note said, citing Singh.  

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Kosmos docked over the weekend alongside the blacklisted Saam floating storage unit near Murmansk in western Russia before later departing with a deeper draft, a sign that it had taken on a cargo, according to ship-tracking data. Three other former Omani vessels — Merkuriy, Orion and Luch — have also picked up from Saam or are positioning to dock there, ship data shows.

Saam stores fuel produced by the US-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant, which is only accessible to vessels with ice-breaking capability for most of the year. Shipping is the key bottleneck for Russia’s fuel trapped in its northern region, and the extra tankers could allow the nation to expand its exports. 

Kosmos earlier this year switched to the Russian flag, changed its name and shifted ownership to a little-known company. Merkuriy picked up fuel from Saam earlier this month, and is currently in the Atlantic likely heading to Asia, Orion is heading to the project, while Luch is also nearby, ship data shows.

The developments mean that there are now at least 20 tankers being used to ferry LNG from sanctioned Russian projects, according to Bloomberg analysis of tracking data. One of those was attacked in March, and is out of service.

That comes as Moscow tries to capitalize on high LNG demand across Asia as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes off a fifth of global supply and sends fuel prices higher.

The four vessels display hallmarks of dark fleet vessels: they’re older than typical LNG carriers still in service and had recently been transferred to companies not well known in the industry.

The Kosmos changed ownership to Hong Kong-based Mighty Ocean Shipping Ltd. in February, the Luch to Russia-based Abakan LLC in April, and the Orion and Merkuriy to Celtic Maritime & Trading SA in February, according to Equasis. The four ships were previously owned or managed by Oman Ship Management Co.

Mighty Ocean didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, while contact information for Celtic Maritime & Trading and Abakan weren’t promptly available.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Thermal power rose 3.1% in April from the year before to help meet growing demand while output from wind turbines and nuclear reactors fell. Coal production declined 1% during a month typically associated with seasonal maintenance.

China entered the year with coal stockpiles ample enough to be considered a glut, but the war in Iran is shifting those calculations. The de facto shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas supply, and China has sharply reduced imports of the fuel given the resulting rise in prices. That’s put more pressure on coal to make up the bulk of thermal power generation.

Domestic benchmark thermal coal prices have risen 23% since the start of the year. Power plants have been instructed to stock up on the fuel ahead of summer demand season, according to the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association. Still, the rally has lost steam recently as utilities push back against rising costs, and traders said they’re concerned about the possibility of government price caps if levels get too high. 

At the same time, clean power is failing to show the same steady growth that helped China lower fossil fuel power output last year for the first time in a decade. The country simply hasn’t been windy enough this year, and wind power output was 5% lower in April than it was the year before despite record additions of new turbines in the ensuing period. Nuclear generation was also lower as plants were shut for maintenance, while utility-scale solar and hydropower output grew. 

The poor performance of renewables is especially alarming because additions of new turbines and panels are down sharply from last year’s record growth. Curtailment is also on the rise, and grid operators are racing to build power lines and battery storage plants to spread out the clean electricity over more hours of the day. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Trump signaled his patience was wearing thin, posting on social media Sunday that “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said the US had set five main conditions for a peace deal, including transferring uranium tied to Iran’s nuclear program to the US, providing no reparations to Tehran and unfreezing less than a quarter of Iran’s frozen assets. Fars cited no source, and the US hasn’t publicly commented on the reported terms.

Meanwhile, the semi-official Mehr news agency said Washington offered “no tangible concessions” while seeking demands it failed to secure during the war, a stance the agency said was leading to an impasse in negotiations. 

A drone attack sparked a fire at a United Arab Emirates nuclear plant, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire. It was one of three launched from west of the emirate, the UAE defense ministry said in a social media post, adding that the other two were intercepted. 

A global bond rout intensified as the US and Iran remained at loggerheads over a deal to end the conflict. Treasuries declined across the curve, with the 30-year yield rising to the highest in almost three years on investor fears of accelerating inflation. Japan’s 10-year yield jumped 10 basis points on Monday to levels last seen in 1996, while bonds also dropped in Australia and New Zealand.

The latest market turmoil followed sharp declines in stocks and bonds Friday as fears grew that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would keep oil prices elevated. Markets now see a US Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by March as almost certain, underscoring how the Iran war has upended expectations since late February, when investors were pricing in two quarter-point cuts in 2026.

Brent rose 2% to over $111 a barrel, after adding almost 8% last week. Brent has jumped about 50% since the start of the war. 

Make a Deal

Trump met Saturday with Vice President JD Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe to discuss the war, Axios reported. He is expected to meet again with his national security team Tuesday.

“We want to make a deal,” Trump told Axios, adding he’s waiting for an updated Iranian proposal. “They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there or they will be hit badly, and they don’t want that.”

Since the ceasefire began on April 8, Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume the bombing campaign that began on Feb. 28.

Iranian threats to shipping in the Gulf have brought the region’s energy exports to a near standstill, sending prices soaring and giving Tehran leverage in talks with the US.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has claimed thousands of lives, mainly in the Islamic Republic. Retaliatory attacks by Tehran targeted US allies across the Gulf, including the UAE, which has carried out intermittent strikes on Iran in response, Bloomberg has reported.

In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet he would speak with Trump later Sunday following the US president’s visit to China. Security Cabinet member Zev Elkin said Israel was prepared to resume strikes on Iran if Trump chose to do so.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said his country is committed to a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Several energy shipments have managed to clear the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, and an Iranian official said authorities were drafting rules to allow passage for some vessels.

The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, sought to emphasize points of agreement on the Middle East conflict when Trump met last week with China’s Xi Jinping, an ally of Iran.

Returning from Asia, Trump told reporters he discussed potentially lifting sanctions on Chinese oil companies that buy Iranian crude with Xi. The Treasury Department has escalated the penalties in recent weeks as the US tries to pressure Tehran on talks, while Beijing has ordered its companies to ignore the sanctions.

Trump said in an interview with Fox News that three Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil through Hormuz during the week of his visit to Beijing did so because the US allowed it. Iranian state TV had previously said more than 30 ships were allowed passage through the strait since Wednesday night, citing an official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy. 

Here’s more related to the war:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit China on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he is expected to discuss the Iran war with Xi.
• Sunday’s drone attack in the UAE sparked a fire in an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah power plant but had no impact on radiological safety, Abu Dhabi’s media office said. No injuries were reported.
• Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on Saturday and met his Iranian counterpart. The two discussed bilateral relations and the prospects for resuming US-Iran peace negotiations, for which Pakistan has been the main mediator, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
• Israel’s economy slumped in the first quarter of the year when the fallout of the war with Iran imposed security-related shutdowns on businesses for more than a month.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was named Iran’s special envoy for China affairs, according to Fars.

(Updates and recasts with global bond market turmoil.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Refiners are feeling the pinch after the near-halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz choked a vital channel for crude. The country processed 54.65 million tons of oil in April, 11% less than March and 5.8% lower than the previous year, the statistics bureau said on Monday. 

State firms cut run rates to below 67% of capacity, a record low in Mysteel Oilchem data going back to 2021, to maintain profitability. The contribution from smaller, privately owned plants stemmed the overall decline after the government told them to keep production at 2025 levels at all costs to stabilize the supply of fuels like gasoline and diesel. 

Higher crude costs and tepid fuel consumption are likely to keep margins and runs under pressure in May, as well. Although China remains the world’s biggest importer, the rapid electrification of its transport sector is weakening oil’s grip on the economy.

On the power side of China’s energy mix, utility-scale electricity generation rose 2.6% year-on-year, due to hotter weather and export-led strength in the factory sector, although the gain lagged the broader 4.1% increase in industrial production. 

The price of coal, China’s mainstay power fuel, has also climbed in recent weeks as domestic conditions tighten and the market responds to disruptions to international gas supplies. Chinese production, however, fell 1% in April after seasonal maintenance affected mines. Other fossil fuel output rose as the country continues to build resilience in oil and gas.

Among metals, aluminum output increased 3.1% to 3.87 million tons, a record on a daily basis, as smelters took advantage of elevated margins and the opportunity to plug a global shortfall of the metal caused by the Iran war. Steel output, more heavily affected by the ongoing property crisis, fell 2.8%.

On the Wire

China’s economy slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines while retail sales and industrial output fell short of forecasts, underscoring the economy’s vulnerability in the face of a global energy crisis. New home price declines abated for a third month, reinforcing hopes that the multiyear property downturn may finally be nearing a bottom. 

Australia’s government has ordered the biggest shareholders in rare earths firm Northern Minerals Ltd. to sell their stakes, the second such intervention in two years as Canberra seeks to protect the company from China-linked investors on national security grounds.

China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion of agricultural products from the US annually through 2028, the White House said in a fact sheet detailing President Donald Trump’s two-day summit in China. Grain futures in Chicago jumped.

China signaled that Australian beef imports are nearing a key safeguard threshold, with shipments reaching 80% of an annual quota that caps imports at current tariff rates.

China’s large-scale data centers have joined electricity spot trading as virtual power plants for the first time, marking a shift in how computing demand interacts with the grid.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, May 18

• China home prices, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for April, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
• China’s 2nd batch of April trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports
  • Clean-tech exports including EVs, batteries and solar
• Tongwei earnings webcast at 15:00

Tuesday, May 19

• Russian President Vladimir Putin visits China
• China Energy Week in Beijing, day 1

Wednesday, May 20 

• Russian President Vladimir Putin visits China
• China sets monthly Loan Prime Rates, 09:00
• China’s April output data for base metals and oil products
• China’s 3rd batch of April trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• China Green Aluminum Summit in Shanghai, day 1
• China Energy Week in Beijing, day 2

Thursday, May 21

• China Green Aluminum Summit in Shanghai, day 2
• China Energy Week in Beijing, day 3

Friday, May 22

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• China Energy Week in Beijing, day 4

(Updates with other data from fifth paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“The MENAT region offers significant opportunities across key industries. I am looking forward to working closely with our teams and customers to further strengthen WIKA’s market position and deliver long-term value,” said Harry Ahmet.

Harry Ahmet brings international leadership experience in sales, key account management, and regional business development.

He began his career at JD Industrial Supplies in Australia and later held senior roles at SICK in Australia, Germany, and the Middle East, including Vice President and Managing Director. Most recently, he was the Managing Director, MENA, at Rittal.

With academic qualifications in Mechanical Engineering and Business Administration, Harry combines strong technical expertise with a strategic, customer-focused leadership style. In his new role, he will focus on driving sustainable growth while further strengthening WIKA’s presence and customer relationships across the MENAT region.

Sascha Niederhagen, EVP EMEAI, welcomed Harry Ahmet to WIKA, noting that his deep regional knowledge, international experience, and proven leadership capabilities make him ideally suited to further develop the business and support customers in a dynamic and growing market environment.

The existing west-east connection has proven crucial to the energy major's oil exports as the Israel/US conflict with Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed to seaborne cargoes.

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) began operating in 2012, and confirmation of its expansion, aimed at reinforcing the UAE’s role as a reliable global energy supplier, has been confirmed as the country pledges a broader strategy to bolster infrastructure capacity.

Future capacity

The initial 360km Habshan–Fujairah pipeline reportedly cost $4.2 billion.

It has the capacity to transport 1.5-1.8 million barrels of crude oil daily — a substantial share of the UAE’s total oil exports. It has gained greater importance in recent weeks by enabling the continuation of crude exports without the UAE relying entirely on Hormuz, the route for a fifth of annual global oil supplies, through which ~80 tankers pass daily.

Expanding the pipeline will further establish Fujairah as a leading bunkering and oil storage hub on the Gulf of Oman.

Large-scale investments in storage terminals, refining facilities, and maritime services, including ADNOC's investments in crude storage and export infrastructure, have increased Fujairah’s significance in global energy supply chains.

The effectiveness of ADCOP has underscored the need to expand capacity to support future production growth following the UAE’s exit from OPEC on 1 May. The country plans to increase oil production capacity to 5 mbpd by 2027 through continued investment in upstream and export infrastructure. 

Energy security

ADNOC is part of a consortium of global investors committing $30 billion to infrastructure projects across the Gulf and Central Asia, as announced last week.

The group, which includes Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund L’imad, BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), and Singapore’s Temasek, stated it will consider opportunities in sectors such as energy, transport, water, and waste management.

The statement added that the aim would be to accelerate the development and expansion of critical infrastructure assets.

Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Managing Director and Group Chief Executive, said the initiative targets “disciplined investments” across a diversified pipeline of “high-quality opportunities”.

He continued: “ADNOC is focused on strengthening long-term energy security, supporting economic resilience, and enabling sustainable value creation.”

Dr Al Jaber added on social media platform X that the strategic partnership “will advance the infrastructure that supports sustainable economic development in high-growth markets across Asia”.

The UAE and Jordan recently signed an agreement to build and operate a $2.3 billion railway linking Jordan’s mining areas to Aqaba port. The 360km project is the first step in building a Jordanian national rail network connecting Aqaba with neighbouring Arab countries, including ports in Syria and the Mediterranean.

Disciplined investments

The consortium’s announcement comes as many governments around the world are stepping up domestic actions amid an historic energy crisis, as oil and LNG from Gulf suppliers remain largely trapped.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 76 nations have now implemented emergency measures, up from 55 at the end of March, as oil stockpiles decline due to the conflict.

Analysts and commodity traders have warned that oil prices could jump again sharply unless more fuel blockaded in the Gulf can be exported. This, along with supply shortages, could prompt greater fuel rationing and cripple global growth.

Paul Diggle, Chief Economist at fund manager Aberdeen, told the Financial Times that his company is examining a scenario in which Brent crude rockets to $180 a barrel, causing surging inflation and recessions in European and Asian countries.

Hormuz must reopen

Dr Al Jaber said Iran’s blockade of the Strait amounts to an “arithmetic of extortion” and demanded unconditional restoration of free navigation as the cumulative toll on global oil supply crosses one billion barrels.

Posting on X, he said: “Every day the Strait is held hostage, the costs go up — for families, farms, factories and economies around the world.

“The world is already 1 billion barrels short because of the closure of Hormuz. That is the arithmetic of extortion.”

Dr Al Jaber’s post added: “Return freedom of navigation. No conditions. No delay.”

The IEA estimated global oil consumption in Q2 to be about 6 mbpd above production levels. That is 2-3 mbpd less than the shortfall suggested by some analysts, and a massive swing from the surplus originally forecast before the Middle East conflict.

ADNOC Gas said in early May that it aims to restore 80% of processing capacity at its Habshan complex by the end of this year.

As one of the world's largest gas processing sites, the complex sustained significant damage during Iran's attacks on the UAE in April.

“There is no taboo” against possible exceptional taxes to redistribute excess profits the company is making on the back of rising crude oil prices, Amiel said in an interview on France’s Radio J on Sunday. 

“Still, for now the most effective measure is capping fuel prices at the pump. That way the money goes directly into the pockets of French people,” he added. 

TotalEnergies last month boosted share buybacks and dividends after first-quarter profits rebounded on the back of soaring oil and gas prices and a strong trading performance. 

While companies such as TotalEnergies have been forced to halt oil and gas production around the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of war in Iran at the end of February, they’re benefiting from steep gains in prices for crude and other fuels. UK peer BP Plc also reported sharply higher earnings amid the market turmoil.

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has said he favored a debate on how to benefit from TotalEnergies’ exceptional results. Other politicians also have upped their scrutiny of the oil sector, with Socialist leader Olivier Faure proposing a tax on windfall corporate profits linked to the Middle East conflict which he said could help France raise €2 billion ($2.32 billion). 

TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne indicated earlier this month that any French tax surcharge would mean the end of the group’s policy of capping fuel prices at pumps in France. A company media representative declined to comment further on Amiel’s remarks when contacted by email by Bloomberg on Sunday. 

While no decision has been made on a possible tax surcharge, “when there are exceptional profits, there should be exceptional redistribution,” Amiel said. “France is lucky to have Total, but Total is lucky to have France,” he added.

France’s economy is weathering the Middle East crisis better than other European countries, Amiel said. The government will continue supporting areas of the economy that are “on the front line” in terms of war impact, such as farmers and transport operators, with measures that are “targeted, temporary and financed,” he added.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A transaction could be announced as soon as Monday, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information was private. An agreement hasn’t been reached and talks could still end without one, the person added.

Representatives for NextEra and Dominion didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. The talks were reported earlier by the Financial Times.

Florida-based NextEra’s shares are up 16% this year, giving it a market value of $195 billion. Richmond, Virginia-based Dominion has gained 5.4% since Jan. 1 for a market value of about $54 billion.

NextEra is already the largest US utility by market capitalization, as well as the country’s biggest developer of renewable energy. Including debt, the combined company would have an enterprise value of about $419 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Buying Dominion would expand NextEra’s reach into the largest electric grid, PJM Interconnection. PJM extends from Washington to Chicago, and encompasses Northern Virginia, which has the country’s biggest concentration of data centers.

Rising demand for electricity from data centers, as well as new factories and overall electrification, has put utility companies like NextEra and Dominion in the spotlight. Tech firms are racing to connect their data centers to the power grid, investors are eager to fund new power infrastructure and the Trump administration is pushing grid improvements and accelerated data center development.

This supercharged environment has led to a surge in power deals. Recent deals include Stonepeak Partners LP and Bernhard Capital Partners buying Louisiana utility Cleco Power, BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners buying Minnesota utility Allete Inc. and independent power producer Constellation Energy Corp. buying Calpine Corp.

In 2020, NextEra made an unsuccessful bid to take over utility giant Duke Energy Corp. in what could have been the largest-ever US utility deal, Bloomberg News reported at the time.

“It’s a consolidating industry,” said Paul Patterson, an analyst for Glenrock Associates. “If Dominion is willing to sell, it does not surprise me that NextEra might want to buy it given its history of prior acquisition attempts.”

(Updates with analyst’s comment in last paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the agreement on Friday. The deal builds on the memorandum of understanding they signed in November that outlined conditions for federal support of a crude pipeline to the west coast to serve Asian markets.

Carney has staked his economic agenda on speeding up major infrastructure projects and lessening Canada’s reliance on exports to the US. Exploiting western Canada’s oil reserves, which are among the world’s largest, is part of that strategy. 

The agreement with Alberta is also a move to defuse political and business tensions that boiled up under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, which introduced new regulations that slowed energy development.

“We’re building trust of investors that Alberta and Canada are reliable and attractive destinations where opportunities are plentiful, the rules are clear and one project means one review — the trust of Asian countries who want our energy because they know that we are a safe, stable, reliable partner in a world that is anything but,” Carney said. 

The deal sets out scheduled annual increases for the headline carbon price, starting at C$95 ($69) per metric ton of CO2 equivalent this year and reaching C$140 in 2040. 

But it requires Alberta to target an “effective price” of C$130 by 2040, with a minimum floor price also increasing annually.

The effective price is meant to reflect the market value of carbon credits and offsets, while setting a floor is intended to ensure the market price does not drop below that level over time. The point is to provide an economic incentive for industrial companies, including oil and gas producers, to invest in technologies that curb emissions. 

Trudeau had envisioned a much bigger carbon tax, sooner, with a headline price of C$170 per metric ton by 2030. Friday’s deal is aimed at fixing a malfunctioning carbon market where credits and offsets were trading at just C$40 per metric ton. Two trades at C$42.50 a metric ton happened on Friday, Albert Ho, head of carbon intelligence for Carbon Assessors, said by email. 

Pipeline Proposal

Alberta is doing the early-stage planning work on a pipeline that would cut through British Columbia, Canada’s west coast province, where the crude could be loaded onto oil tankers for shipment to energy-thirsty Asian countries. The agreement unveiled Friday says Alberta will submit its pipeline application to the federal Major Projects Office no later than July 1, while the federal government aims to designate it as a project of “national interest” by October — making it eligible for a faster review and approval process.

The pipeline proposal does not yet have private sector investors. Smith said on Bloomberg Television that she believes Asian firms are interested, and Enbridge Inc. Chief Executive Officer Greg Ebel said the company “definitely would consider” getting involved. 

If the pipeline is designated as a project of national interest, the federal government said it will make “best efforts” to provide a conditions document by Sept. 1, 2027 to allow for construction to begin. 

Still, the deal did not receive universal approval from the energy industry. 

“For Canada to have a regulatory and carbon framework competitive with the US, there is still much work to be done,” said Adam Waterous, executive chairman of oil producer Strathcona Resources Ltd. “If there is certainty on higher costs imposed by governments, then there needs to be certainty of higher revenues to industry.”

Canada will ensure the federal carbon pricing benchmark is consistent with the Alberta agreement, meaning other provinces would get similar pricing timelines, Carney said. There are regional differences in provincial carbon markets, so consultations will be needed, he added.

Crucially, the deal he signed with Smith downsizes the Pathways carbon capture project that is a condition of federal support for the new pipeline.

The coalition of oil companies behind the carbon capture scheme originally promised to reduce emissions by about 22 million metric tons per year by 2030. The new agreement only requires the capture of 6 million metric tons annually by 2035, and 16 million metric tons a year by 2045.

The lower carbon price still maintains “uncompetitive costs” on the industry, the group behind Pathways said in a statement. But Kendall Dilling, president of the Oil Sands Alliance, said it’s committed to advancing the project as long as “the necessary regulatory and fiscal terms are in place.”

Tim Hodgson, Canada’s energy minister, said in an interview that formal negotiations have not begun on the Pathways project, but he believed they would reach a consensus after seeing the governments move ahead with a pipeline and carbon price. 

“Now that we’ve created certainty around what that price will be, capital allocators can allocate capital and with that unlock new production and new opportunities to sell that at a world price to world markets.”

The deal also sets out stringency rates for high emitters, requiring large oil sands firms to reduce “carbon intensity” by 2% annually — either by trimming emissions, using carbon credits or paying the carbon price directly.

Firms building and operating the Pathways project would only be required to reduce emissions intensity by 1% starting in 2030.

Environmental groups decried the announcement. The Coastal First Nations, an alliance of several northern BC Indigenous groups, said: “Nothing has changed and a North Coast pipeline will never be built.” BC Premier David Eby reiterated that he opposes any repeal of a ban on oil tankers along the northern coast.

(Adds carbon price change and other new information.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Humidity will drop Saturday and Sunday as winds gust up to 50 miles per hour (80 kph) in California’s Central Valley, where red flag fire warnings have been issued, said Marc Chenard, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center. In areas between the cities of Fresno and Bakersfield, the winds may reach 70 mph. 

“It looks like the worst of it should be through the weekend,” said Chenard. 

Utilities across the West often cut power when dry winds threaten to topple electricity lines and other gear that could spark wildfires. Such measures are intended to limit fire risks and any potential financial liabilities. Proactive power shutoffs could range from 18 hours to several days, according to PG&E.

The warning involves seven California counties, including Napa, PG&E said on its website on Friday.

PG&E and subsidiary Pacific Gas & Electric were driven into bankruptcy in 2019 because of wildfire liabilities. They emerged from Chapter 11 protection about 17 months later.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Friday that the strait should be opened to shipping as soon as possible, according to state-run Xinhua News Agency. Both Iran and the US are blocking traffic through the crucial waterway for global energy flows.

The statement came as world’s two largest economies sought to emphasize points of agreement on the Middle East conflict during Trump’s meetings with President Xi Jinping this week — even as they’re essentially on opposite sides, with China repeatedly criticizing the US-Israeli attack on its Iranian ally. Oil extended gains Friday as the war headed toward its 12th week with no clear path to a solution.   

On his way back from China, Trump also told reporters he spoke with Xi about potentially lifting sanctions on Chinese oil companies that buy Iranian crude. The Treasury has ramped up those penalties in recent weeks as the US tries to pressure Tehran on talks. Beijing ordered its companies to ignore the sanctions.

“I’m going to make a decision over the next few days,” Trump said aboard Air Force One when asked if he’d consider lifting the sanctions. “We did talk about that.”

The conciliatory comments follow a summit that was overshadowed by the Iran war, given China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. But they do little to ease the conundrum now facing the White House: How to reopen the strait, lower global energy prices and wind down an increasingly unpopular conflict that has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history ahead of midterm elections in November.

Brent crude jumped more than 3% to trade near $109 per barrel at 2 p.m. in New York, extending its gains since the start of the war to about 50%. Traders are worried about a fresh escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran after Trump’s visit to China didn’t appear to yield concrete progress on a plan to restart Hormuz traffic.

A modest recovery in vessel movements seen earlier this week has faded as owners remained cautious about transits amid reports of a ship seizure near the waterway.

Trump said earlier in Beijing that he and Xi share common goals for resolving the conflict — namely that Hormuz should reopen and Iran shouldn’t possess a nuclear weapon. China, like the US, was a signatory to the 2015 accord on curtailing Iran’s atomic program, which Trump abandoned during his first term.

Trump stopped short of asking Xi to lean on Iran to ease traffic through the strait, but predicted the Chinese leader would do so. On Thursday, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said Tehran would allow Chinese vessels to transit following discussions with Beijing. 

Iran has little interest in loosening its hold on the waterway. Tehran has insisted it wants to maintain control after the war, and attacked two commercial ships leaving Hormuz under US protection in a quickly-shelved effort to prise open the strait known as Project Freedom. 

Iran’s ability to shut down Hormuz has sent global energy prices soaring and given Tehran enormous leverage in talks with US negotiators, who want Iran to cave on several issues — from its missile and nuclear programs to its support for militant groups in the Middle East.

The only real prospect of a short-term deal now appears to be putting off talks about Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with both sides suggesting that issue be dealt with later — despite Trump citing Iran’s nuclear program as the main justification for the war.  

Iran said it had “come to the conclusion with the Americans” to postpone the topic until the later stages of negotiations, calling it “very complicated,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a press conference in India on Friday. 

Trump also said aboard Air Force One that he’s willing to send US forces to remove Iran’s uranium “at the right time,” though he earlier suggested in a Fox News interview such a mission was “more for public relations than it is for anything else.”

Iran’s highly enriched uranium, which has been in an unknown location since a US and Israeli bombing campaign in June last year, remains one of many obstacles to a peace agreement.  

Another is the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, designed to pressure Tehran economically, which US Central Command said on Friday had redirected 75 commercial ships from sailing through Hormuz.

Here’s more related to the war:

• The current “cessation of hostilities” between Israel and Lebanon “will be extended by 45 days to enable further progress” in talks, US State Department Spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a post on X.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Most of the projects that won contracts in this year’s subsidy auction, known as AR7, have yet to be given a firm connection date, according to people familiar with the matter. RWE AG won five of the six contracts for fixed bottom offshore wind farms this year and SSE Plc was awarded one.

The hiatus in the UK comes despite Energy Secretary Ed Miliband taking steps to unclog bottlenecks in the grid. The absence of connection agreements can increase costs and potentially even derail a projects, creating uncertainty around £15 billion ($20 billion) of planned offshore wind investments, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data.

It also threatens Miliband’s goal for 95% clean power generation by the end of the decade. In the UK, 25 gigawatts of offshore wind is still waiting for a grid connection, according to Energy Networks Association. 

RWE could be forced to delay investment close on its two Vanguard wind farms if the issue isn’t resolved, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing commercially sensitive information. The company has previously said it’s expecting to reach an investment decision in summer.

RWE said it expects connection dates for all its projects to be confirmed in line with the new timetable published by the National Energy System Operator. 

SSE said its Berwick Bank B project, which secured a CfD in AR7, has got a firm grid connection offer.

Britain has been celebrated by other countries in Europe for its apparent success in unblocking the grid. In December, NESO slashed the queue, kicking out so-called “zombie projects” and allowing the most advanced generation projects to move to the front of the line.

However, the National Energy System Operator has struggled to deliver on the promised reforms, and the process had been further frustrated by technical issues around the online portal for developers to track progress. NESO is about six months behind its original schedule, which means projects are still waiting for a connection date that they should have been given in February or March.

A spokesman for NESO said that despite earlier delays, it is now on track to deliver on a new timetable that was agreed with the industry in February. It has finished issuing offers for projects due to start this year and next and is now turning to those switching on from 2028 to the end of 2030. That includes AR7 winners.

Under the newly agreed timetable, AR7 winners due to come online by the end of the decade, have been told they can expect to have their grid connection confirmed in September.

“We have embarked on ambitious, once in a generation reforms to put a stop to zombie projects holding up grid connections – and we are actively working with NESO, Ofgem and network companies to prevent any further delays in new connections offers going out and ensure NESO’s revised timeline is met,” a spokeswoman for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said.

Painful Delays

Miliband’s department is trying to speed things up by reaching an agreement with NESO and National Grid Electricity Transmission to prioritize projects that already have so-called contracts for difference, which are favored by the government, according to the people familiar.

Some developers want an agreement to prioritize such projects before the next auction round, AR8, starts in July to reassure bidders they won’t get caught up in the same gridlock. It’s a critical round, with almost 16 gigawatts of offshore wind farm capacity eligible, according to BloombergNEF. 

“This is the last round that BNEF expects could contribute towards the UK’s 2030 clean power targets,” said Kajsa Jernetz, an analyst at BNEF. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The secretariat of the Energy Transitions Commission, whose members include executives from ArcelorMittal SA, HSBC Holdings Plc and Shell Plc, said in a new report that the current Middle East crisis highlights “a structural vulnerability in the global energy system: heavy reliance on geographically concentrated fossil fuel supply and critical transit routes.” By contrast, “clean energy systems are structurally immune to this type of shock,” the group said.

The ETC, which is co-chaired by former City of London finance regulator Adair Turner, joins a growing chorus arguing the war in Iran may ultimately strengthen the case for renewables. The conflict, which has disrupted oil supplies and pushed up fossil-fuel prices, has set the stage for a wave of investment as governments seek to boost energy independence. 

“Almost every country in the world could be energy sufficient in renewable electricity in a way that it just couldn’t possibly be in fossil fuels,” Turner said in an interview. “The supply of fossil fuels is extremely unequally divided across the world, and so there are some countries that get enormous fossil fuel rents, while others are big importers.”

Clean energy systems “change the physical and economic structure of energy supply,” making them more resilient than fossil-fuel alternatives, the ETC said. While oil and gas systems “depend on continuous flows of extracted, traded and transported commodities,” those built on green power rely mainly on “one-off installed capital assets” such as solar panels, wind turbines and batteries that, once installed, deliver energy for years or decades.

In clean energy, as much as 90% of capital investment is made upfront, limiting the impact of price shocks to assets that need replacement or expansion, the ETC said. 

“Renewables create a set of capital assets, which once you’ve got them, are just not susceptible to somebody cutting off a pipeline or somebody sending the LNG elsewhere because they got a better offer,” Turner said.

The “key difference” between the current shock and past energy crises is the “availability of readily deployable alternatives” that are now cost-competitive and large enough to challenge fossil-fuel dominance, according to the ETC. Falling costs of wind, solar and batteries in recent years “make it possible for the response to the current crisis to be even stronger” in pivoting away from oil and gas, the group added.

And the rationale for making that shift is particularly compelling in Asian economies that are heavily dependent on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the ETC said. The impacts of the current energy shock are “most severe” in Asia, where fuel shortages and price increases are limiting transport, industrial production, immediate food availability and fertilizer application, according to the report.

“Solar is so cheap, batteries are so cheap and EVs are getting so cheap that this is the first energy crisis where people say, ‘but there’s an alternative,’” Turner said.

(Adds more about impact of Middle East conflict on Asia in ninth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Authorities approved amendments to the island’s Energy Administration Act aimed at enhancing the self-sufficiency of major electricity consumers as well as reducing their reliance on the grid, according to a report by Taipei-based Central News Asia on Thursday. The goal of these measures is to strengthen demand-side management and improve efficiency, the report said, citing Premier Cho Jung-tai.

The amendment also mandates the disclosure of information on power sales, such as consumption by industries and regions, to facilitate the planning of fuel-saving measures in the future, according to the report.

The move highlights the government’s efforts to adapt to increasing electricity demand, especially as the island houses some of the world’s biggest chipmakers. Government-owned Taiwan Power Co. expects demand to climb by more than 5 gigawatts through 2030, mostly driven by semiconductor manufacturing and the rise in artificial intelligence and data centers.

It also comes as the import-reliant island scrambles to shore up energy security against a backdrop of the Middle East war, which has upended global fuel flows. Taiwan imports around 96% of its energy, with liquefied natural gas accounting for roughly half of its power generation. 

The island has been able to avoid a crippling fuel shortfall only by getting expensive supply from the spot market, where prices are more than double that of long-term contracts, and estimates it has enough natural gas through September.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.