The unprecedented nature of the closure left many people working blind and without a timetable. 

In the United Arab Emirates, one official says the country spent the early days of the conflict working out how to stagger oil-well shutdowns to ensure production would be best-placed to rebound. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have managed to keep enough pressure in their fields to potentially return to prewar production rates within two weeks, officials say. Saudi supertankers have passed up millions of dollars in earnings since April waiting on standby to pick up the kingdom’s crude at a moment’s notice should the Strait reopen.

Within hours of the interim peace deal being signed by the US and Iran on Wednesday, three Saudi supertankers emerged outside the strait, among the first in a swelling flow of traffic, though the volume of visible traffic slowed on Friday.

Other players are more circumspect and want further reassurances on a demining program and the order that ships will be allowed out of the gulf. But the deal signed by US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian should be the signal for oil wells and refineries dotted across the region to crank into gear — a restart so big that it should be visible from space, where thousands of megawatts of heat signatures will be picked up as fields burn off gas.

“We should be able to restore normal operations across this entire market within the next six months, provided that we truly return to a period when the strait is open,” Patrick Pouyanne, chairman and chief executive officer of TotalEnergies SE, told the French parliament on Wednesday. “Everyone will be watching to see what’s actually happening on the ground.”

Critical for the Gulf states, the restart of production and barrels flowing out of Hormuz also offers the prospect of lower energy prices and an easing of the inflation fears of central bankers across the world. For Trump it has the added attraction of lowering fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections and giving the US an opportunity to restore inventories that have hit bare-minimum levels.

To run smoothly, the reopening needs to be properly choreographed with ships in the right place, wells restarted, infrastructure repaired and agreement on a demining operation. It could easily be derailed if not enough owners are willing to enter Hormuz soon enough to carry the barrels, or if Iran begins imposing tolls as the interim deal implies it could or if Trump’s peace plan falters and hostilities resume.

At times during the last four months, Gulf oil exports were down almost 15 million barrels a day — a 60% drop from where they were in February. And benchmark crude prices topped $126 a barrel, a price that didn’t go higher in recent months only because of record releases from emergency oil reserves and plunging demand which helped ease global supply shortages. Iranian attacks have caused about $42 billion of damage to major facilities from refineries to pipelines, consultant Rystad Energy estimates. Imposition of a US blockade designed to curb Iranian oil revenues further halted traffic. Some refining units could take months to fully return, say senior oil executives.

And all the time more than 100 oil-laden tankers with hundreds of crew members onboard have been stuck inside the Persian Gulf, analysts at shipbroker E.A. Gibson estimate.

Saudi and Emirati officials are also bullish about how quickly they can restore crude flows. Restarting the refineries that process oil into consumable fuels will likely be a longer-term process, requiring bespoke equipment and complex engineering. Collectively, the six largest refining plants in the region had about 1.4 million barrels a day of processing capacity offline, according to IIR Energy, which analyzes such data, a volume that is more than a fifth of the amount of refined fuel exported through Hormuz before the war.

Not all producers have had the same success in keeping their fields running optimally while the conflict raged. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were able to divert some oil supplies through pipelines to Yanbu on the Red Sea and Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman to bypass Hormuz. 

Even within the same country the picture is confused. One official warns that restoring Iraq’s fields to previous levels will be a slow process because the prolonged shutdown has left wells clogged with substances like paraffin. At the same time, Iraq’s output is already showing signs of an increase, with a top official at the southern Basra Oil Co. saying this week that production had risen by about 500,000 barrels a day from earlier in the war.

A spokesperson for Iraq’s oil ministry said that the pace of output restarts will vary from field to field. They added that the ministry is prioritizing fields that produce associated gas, or where such gas can be utilized.

“Restoring supply on this scale is wholly unprecedented,” said Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at consultant Wood Mackenzie, which estimates that 70% of prewar production can be returned within three months and 90% within six months. “There will be pleasant surprises for producers but also setbacks.” 

In fact, the reopening of Hormuz has already been quietly underway for weeks. Each day, a handful of oil tankers, starting with a trickle but more recently carrying as many as five million barrels a day — somewhere between a quarter and a third of the normal prewar traffic — were hugging the coast of Oman and escaping the 21-mile wide waterway. 

That flow should now turn into a gush if the Middle East’s oil industry restarts in earnest. The heavy lift will see Saudi oilfield engineers, Indian tanker captains and others working around the clock to try and return the oil market to something more closely resembling normality. 

“You don’t need to be back at 100% of prewar flows right away,” says Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodity trader Trafigura Group, “but you need to be back to at least 50% fairly quickly.” 

Where Are All The Ships?

Almost as soon as Trump announced on Sunday that a deal would be struck this week, Gulf producers were inundated with calls from clients seeking clarity and further details about how real any resumption in shipments might be. 

On Thursday many were still seeking that same reassurance. The world's main oil tanker trade group Intertanko, called for urgent clarity on what steps would be needed to get ships through Hormuz safely, with owners needing to be reassured that there are no mines present before risking a crossing. 

It’s still not clear what a demining operation in Hormuz would look like or who would do it, but security officials say it would be an operation that’s likely to take weeks rather than days.

“Everyone would like to get the ships out, but the mood is that you don’t necessarily need to be the first one,’’ says Jan Rindbo, chief executive officer of D/S Norden A/S. “Obviously with traffic resuming that will build confidence. But it’s still fragile, it will not take a lot for that confidence to disappear again.”

For those willing to take the risk, there could be a handsome financial reward. Shipowners think there’ll be hundreds of thousands of dollars a day to earn by getting their ships in the right place at the right time. On Wednesday at least six supertankers, capable of hauling 12 million barrels of crude, conducted screeching turns in the middle of the Indian Ocean and began sailing toward the Persian Gulf on the prospect of reopening. Some Greek owners and an enigmatic South Korean shipowner, Ga-Hyun Chung, who recently became the world’s largest operator of supertankers, have also been sending vessels close to the Gulf of Oman.

Their wager is that there’ll be a surge of cargoes and not enough ships in place to carry them. Clarksons Securities estimated this week that the equivalent of about 140 supertankers would be needed to restore flows from the Persian Gulf. There are about 120 empty supertankers, east of the Malacca Strait that could in theory get to Hormuz within a week, though some will also need to sail to other destinations around the world.

One Chinese oil company was looking for a ship to carry an Iraqi cargo of crude this week and several shipbrokers said tanker owners were quoting a rate above $600,000 a day — at least 10 times the price of last year. Oil companies are balking at those numbers.

For those who have been stuck onboard tankers in the strait it’s a different calculation. Abhjit Chopra, the captain of a tanker with 22 crew, has spent 110 days stranded and now just wants to go home to his family in India. He heard about the deal via mobile phone messages that woke him on Thursday morning, but says there was no celebration onboard or from the ships around them.

He paints a picture of mundane days over the last few months broken up by occasional missiles flying overhead and says he and the crew are now just waiting for instructions.

“There has definitely been a sense of strain and uncertainty over this 100-plus days where we do not have clarity of what is about to happen,” says Chopra. “The vessels are being careful. We are all waiting for instructions from our shore offices to carry out the next steps.”

The Asia Market

Reopening will present a further opportunity for commodity traders who thrive in times of major market shifts. Several of the industry’s biggest energy traders have so far this year seen their highest profits since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

As the restart plays out, barrels are set to flood toward Asian refiners — the biggest buyers of Middle Eastern crude. After months of shortages that have forced processing cuts and four-day weeks to ration energy supplies in some nations, buyers from Japan to Vietnam say they are already inundated with cargo offers. One of the first tankers to leave Hormuz on Thursday was loaded with liquefied natural gas destined for Pakistan, which has faced severe fuel shortages since the war began.

A series of workarounds — some unexpected such as a plunge in Chinese imports, others more deliberate initiatives including the release of emergency reserves, and a diversion of flows through pipes in the Middle East helped stave off higher prices. Until now, those levers have kept the market in balance, and the added supplies could push it back into a surplus. But countries and companies will also be looking to rebuild more than a billion barrels of inventories that have been lost since the conflict began.

“With China’s ability to swing demand so much and so quickly, the system is pretty secure against supply shocks,” said Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context. “This is obviously the ultimate supply-shock test, and the market so far seems to have passed.”

Several commodity traders said that once the oil market has worked its way through this most recent shock, they expect it to return to what had been expected prewar for 2026: a period where supply far outstrips demand. That means oil prices, which stood at around $79 on Thursday, are poised to tumble even further. 

China recently began tapping its commercial oil reserves, and there’s little sign of its imports picking up. Lower prices and more barrels flowing through Hormuz, traders say, could soon change that.

Focus will then quickly turn to lessons learned from the conflict. The UAE has already announced plans to build more pipelines to bypass Hormuz so that if conflict breaks out again it will be better insulated and able to export at least some of its oil. Traders and refiners in Asia say processors — which typically purchase oil via long-term contracts for Middle Eastern crudes — will be reassessing their huge reliance on the region. 

There are also expectations that the barrels that emerge will quickly flow into storage tanks depleted over the course of the war. The US strategic reserve is now at its lowest level since the 1980s, while Japan has released about 15% of the stock it holds since March. Some expect that refilling process to put a floor under oil prices into the end of the year at least, and keep demand for the tankers hauling barrels across the world supported.

“Everyone is going to look around and say we need to rebuild inventories,” says Trafigura’s Rahim, “crude producers and refiners will run as hard as they can.”

(Updates with latest traffic in fourth paragraph and Iraq oil ministry comments in fourteenth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The United Arab Emirates state-owned producer said oil from its ports at Das and Zirku islands, which are located inside the Gulf, has been available for loading since April 27. Failure to pick up the crude would constitute a breach of buyers’ lifting obligations, it added.

In light of the recent US-Iran deal and “the envisaged uninterrupted flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect that all cargoes will be lifted in accordance with the published loading programs,” it said in its notice to the company’s long-term buyers.

If buyers can’t secure their own tankers, Adnoc would be able to assist with its own or affiliated vessels. The company also cited its general terms and conditions for the sale of crude oil, which states that a buyer shall pay compensation to the seller in the event of a failure to take delivery.

Adnoc declined to comment.

The company had been among the most successful of Gulf producers to get supply out through the Strait of Hormuz, offering crude to buyers in a series of tenders. It has sold at least 30 million barrels so far, with more likely to transact this week. Other sellers like Kuwait have also been getting oil out of the gulf.

The United Arab Emirates recently left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, allowing the country to ramp up production as it’s no longer bound by cartel-wide limits. The nation is one of the few regional producers with large amounts of spare production capacity and has long chafed at OPEC’s curbs.

The UAE is working on plans to lessen its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. It will double its capacity to export crude bypassing the Hormuz by next year by accelerating the construction of a pipeline that runs to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company’s reactor — the Ward 250 — reached “criticality” on June 18, Valar said in a statement Thursday. That means it achieved a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction, allowing it to produce a steady release of energy. 

Valar is the second company to reach the milestone this month, following Antares Nuclear Inc. Both are participating in the Energy Department’s reactor pilot program, which was announced last year and set a goal of seeing three reactors achieve criticality by July 4.

“Nine months ago, this was an empty site. Today, there’s a critical reactor on it, built and operated by the Valar team,” Isaiah Taylor, chief executive officer of Valar, said in the statement. ”We met the milestone the executive order set.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a series of orders Thursday tailored to the country’s power grids in a bid to remove bottlenecks that had risked slowing the AI boom. The aim is to handle requests for power within 90 days, a dramatic acceleration of a process that currently can take years. 

The fast-tracking will come with tradeoffs for AI hyperscalers. Under the plans, they could be required to bring their own power or curtail demand during times of high stress on the system. They will also be on the hook for costs associated with needed grid upgrades so they can receive vast quantities of electricity, according to Laura Swett, chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

“This is the biggest priority our country is facing at the moment,” Swett said. “We are taking historic action to push our country’s electric markets and economy into the future.”

The six regional grid operators and their transmission owners must, within 60 days, either justify tariffs that do not clearly address large-load customers or submit proposed revisions, according to a FERC fact sheet.

The order comes amid pressure from the Trump Administration to ensure AI becomes the backbone of the American economy, and highlights the surging demand in power markets after two decades of stagnation. At the same time, the data center buildout and the inflationary impact it has had on consumer power bills have become hot-button election issues ahead of the mid-terms in November.

FERC’s moves follows a call last year from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright for expedited reviews for data-center grid connections and a broader framework for accelerating access to power supplies.

“We’re out of the wild west era of data center development,” said Robert Montejo, a partner at law firm Duane Morris LLP. “This order may be remembered less for its technical reforms and more for recognizing that large-load interconnection is now a core political, planning, and economic issue.”

The data center buildout presents both opportunity and risk: Technology companies could help finance grid upgrades, but their power needs are arriving faster than the system can adapt. Data centers can add the electricity demand of a small city within a few years, forcing grid operators to meet large new loads without increasing the risk of shortages or blackouts.

While various US grids have attempted to address concerns over ensuring data centers are connected with electricity generation and keeping costs in check, the rollout of such policies have been inconsistent. PJM Interconnection LLC, the largest US grid covering 13 states and 67 million customers, has come under particularly heavy criticism for being slow and seeing power bills surge.

That mismatch is something FERC is now trying to rectify, though it stopped short of a blanket rule for the whole country. Swett said it was now up to states to ensure costs are allocated evenly. Utilities will also be required to report costs tied to data centers to the federal agency to help ensure transparency, Swett said in an interview with Bloomberg News in Washington after the public meeting. 

New York Independent System Operator spokesman Kevin Lanahan said in an email that FERC’s new approach provides flexibility to grid operators to address their region-specific conditions.

(Updates with FERC chair comment from Bloomberg News interview in the penultimate paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Verse Enterprises Inc., a San Francisco-based startup, says its software can help data centers skip the line by managing off-grid batteries and solar. 

The company already makes software that analyzes energy pricing and demand so facilities can monitor their energy consumption. Now it’s partnering with battery developer Calibrant Energy to incorporate storage and solar generation into the equation, a setup it says can avoid overloading the grid during peak demand. 

It’s betting this will convince utilities to take on data centers’ extra load without making costly and time-consuming infrastructure upgrades.

“We're now at the point that clean energy is actually the economic and feasible solution because the speed of deployment is fast,” Verse’s co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Seyed Madaeni said. 

The company raised $54 million this spring in a Series B round that included chipmaking giant Nvidia Corp. as a backer. It’s part of an effort by AI companies to fund energy-efficiency startups that can help them cut their rapidly growing power use. Nvidia has also invested millions in Emerald AI, which makes a similar software. 

But installing these systems isn’t a guarantee that utility companies will hook up data centers right away, according to Allison Weis, global head of storage at Wood Mackenzie. Flexibility in power demand can reduce barriers to getting connected, but utilities haven’t defined any standards for data centers to meet to get online, or said that batteries or on-site power generation will help fulfill them.   

“There’s no uniform framework,” she said. 

Federal regulators are set to unveil guidance on how the US will expedite data center connections. At issue is whether hyperscalers will be responsible for providing their own power generation, commit to flexible energy consumption or foot the bill for grid upgrades.

Falling costs and rising electricity needs have led to a boom in battery deployment. The energy storage market is forecast to grow 21% this year as demand for batteries grows despite tariffs and restrictions on tax credits for batteries that rely heavily on Chinese components.

Verse said it’s using the raise to scale deployment of their technology to more than 100 sites by early next year.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

These types of projects rose about a third to 32.3 gigawatts in the week ending May 29, according to data compiled by Australia’s clean energy regulator. That takes the total large-scale renewables pipeline up to almost 70 gigawatts, or more than triple the capacity of the coal plants that have historically generated most of the nation’s power.

The increase comes after Australia’s government in May approved about 10 gigawatts of wind and solar projects, as well as battery facilities, as part of public tenders. 

Australia has become a bellwether for the energy transition, as it seeks to replace its rapidly aging fleet of coal power stations and meet a goal of renewables achieving 82% of total generation by 2030. That compares with 46.5% in the main grid in the first quarter, a record for the period despite unprecedented demand, according to the market operator. 

Still, there is no guarantee that these proposed solar and wind facilities will ultimately come to fruition, while the gap between probable developments and accredited or committed projects continues to widen. Among the biggest hurdles facing new projects are transmission infrastructure delays and lengthy planning and permitting processes.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent sank toward $78 a barrel after a modest gain on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $75. President Donald Trump said he had signed the deal, which envisions a rapid reopening of the critical waterway.

US oil sanctions must now be lifted immediately, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. “Iran must be able to sell its oil, shipping and insurance must not face any issues, and the revenues from oil sales must also be received,” he said on state television. 

Crude has shed almost all of the gains seen during the conflict, which erupted in February when the US and Israel attacked Iran to curb its nuclear program. Tehran responded by blocking the waterway, which used to carry about a fifth of global oil supply in peacetime. The US also subsequently blockaded the conduit in a bid to ramp up the pressure against Tehran.

“The easy part was reaching an agreement — the harder part is determining how much of the disruption from the past few months becomes permanent,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer of Karobaar Capital LP.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Gulf exports are now expected to “normalize” by the end of next month, compared with the end of August previously. Still, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels, the bank’s analysts said in a note, highlighting producers tapping alternative routes.

“Markets tend to assume a reopening means a reset,” said Khurshid. “While really some of the changes made during the disruption may stick around longer than people expect.”

Ahead of the deal’s signing — which ushers in a 60-day period of additional talks on unresolved issues —  the oil and shipping industry remained largely in wait-and-see mode, although a handful of vessels began rerouting toward the Middle East, while Iranian tankers laden with oil moved out.

Shipbrokers and owners reported some tentative inquiries about hiring vessels to collect oil from ports across the region, although it’s not clear whether any new deals have been struck. Iraq, the region’s second-largest producer before the war, said it was taking steps to increase exports.

While oil prices have eased, pressure on inventories remains acute. Stockpiles at Cushing, the largest US commercial storage hub, have sunk to about 20 million barrels. That’s a level traders consider an operational minimum.

At the same time, petroleum products have followed crude’s path lower. Average nationwide gasoline prices in the US have dropped back to $4.025 a gallon, compared with a high of $4.564 last month, according to daily figures from the American Automobile Association.

On Wednesday, President Trump signaled that the risk of a major economic crisis had played a key role in his decision to call off the war. Military escalation “could have caused an international depression,” he said.

The US leader “really does want, going into the midterms, lower gasoline prices,” said Carolyn Kissane, associate dean at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University, referring to the elections in November. “He’s willing to accept a deal kind of at all costs.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

On the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, President Donald Trump signed the deal, one of the provisions of which is a rapid reopening of the critical waterway through which around 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits. Nearly 600 ships and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in Gulf waters as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Middle East conflict started, according to the International Chamber of Shipping.

Under article 5 of the US-Iran agreement, upon the signing the MoU, “the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only,” from the Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.

“The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz,” according to the statement, in discussion with other Gulf states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Alternative routes still in play

Once formal approval is given to reopen, stranded ships could theoretically begin to move through the strait almost immediately. However, analysts said the focus will now be on implementation of the agreement as well as the mechanism governing the passage of ships through the Strait.

The oil and shipping industry remained largely in wait-and-see mode, although a handful of vessels began rerouting toward the Middle East, while Iranian tankers laden with oil moved out.

According to the BBC, three Saudi Arabia-flagged supertankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Data from MarineTraffic suggests they made the crossing with their position transmitters off before switching them back on after crossing into the Gulf of Oman.

A gradual shift to pre-war exports

Goldman Sachs said Gulf exports are now expected to “normalise” by the end of next month, compared with the end of August previously. Still, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels, the bank’s analysts said in a note, highlighting producers tapping alternative routes.

According to Bloomberg, shipbrokers and owners have reported tentative inquiries about hiring vessels to collect oil from ports across the region. Iraq, the region’s second-largest producer before the war, said it was taking steps to increase exports.

While oil prices have eased, pressure on inventories remains acute. Stockpiles at Cushing, the largest US commercial storage hub, have sunk to about 20 million barrels, the lowest level in years. On Thursday, oil fell as the interim US-Iran peace deal went into effect. Brent sank toward $78 a barrel after a modest gain on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $75. 

The project, commissioned by Buoyant Production Technologies (BPT), a subsidiary of Crondall Energy, centres on a Normally Unattended Installation (NUI) buoy in the North Sea that can generate its own power, manage subsea control systems and operate without permanent personnel or a connection to a host platform. 

The demonstrator, which entered service in late 2025, has completed more than 1,000 hours of autonomous operations and achieved technology qualification within 10 months of contract award. 

Targeting complex operations

Offshore operators are now targeting smaller, more remote, and deeper water reservoirs, meaning that traditional tie-back developments often rely on long umbilicals or manned platforms to provide power and communications from a host platform. These solutions can be costly and carbon intensive, while putting workers at risk. 

The NUI buoy can address these challenges by replacing the long-distance architecture with a compact floating facility. This facility can generate power locally from a combination of sources like solar, wind, battery storage, and diesel backup generation.

Bilfinger was tasked with designing architecture capable of supporting fully autonomous operations in harsh offshore environments. To achieve this, the company deployed Schneider Electric’s EcoStruxture Automation Expert platform, which is an industrial automation system. 

Enhancing interoperability

Traditional automation systems are often linked to proprietary software, meaning it can be difficult to separate hardware and software. However, EcoStruxture can de-link applications from hardware, allowing operators to integrate technologies from multiple vendors. 

“Traditional automation architectures make customisation very difficult, especially for first-of-its-kind projects,” said Steven Parkinson, Automation, Production and Service Director at Bilfinger UK, adding that “This approach simplified integration between renewable power generation, remote operation and autonomous control, while overcoming the long lead times, high capital costs and limited flexibility associated with traditional infrastructure.”

The buoy’s control and power system incorporates Schneider Electric’s Modicon M580 controller, a separate renewable energy microgrid controller, and AVEVA software for visualisation, data management, and analytics. Communications are maintained through 5G and Starlink connectivity, while safety systems include fire, gas, and smoke detection alongside a layered cybersecurity framework.

Accelerating digital transformation solutions

According to Bilfinger, the platform can integrate subsea equipment while maintaining reliable control and power supply for critical assets such as valves, compressors, and pumps.

The project also reflects a broader industry trend towards digitalisation and low carbon solutions. By generating power locally, the technology could aid in lowering emissions in offshore operations. 

“This project proves a new operating model for offshore assets and supports our mission to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries,” said Devan Pillay, President of Heavy Industries at Schneider Electric.

“Our close collaboration with Bilfinger and the adoption of open, software-defined automation were critical to a successful and timely delivery,” Pillay said, adding, “The real opportunity now lies in replicating and scaling this approach across future assets to enable a lower-carbon offshore industry.”

The two companies believe the technology could be adapted for various environments and be deployed globally. 

The Chicago-based developer acquired a roughly 5,000 acre geothermal parcel in New Mexico this week via a Bureau of Land Management lease sale. That brings its total federal geothermal footprint to 45 parcels covering approximately 144,000 acres across five states. 

While the Trump administration has doubled down on its attack on renewables, blocking existing offshore-wind projects and slashing incentives for solar and wind, geothermal has emerged unscathed with tax credits intact. There’s been a rise in interest about the energy source amid the AI data center boom as it offers around-the-clock, clean power by tapping the Earth’s heat to generate power. 

Invenergy will redirect the capital from the canceled offshore wind leases into natural gas and geothermal projects, according to the Interior Department.

BLM’s New Mexico sale alone drew bids on 47 parcels totaling roughly 152,000 acres for $16.6 million in receipts, one of several state-level auctions this year as the agency leans into geothermal under the administration’s energy agenda. Other winning bidders include a subsidiary of Ormat Technologies Inc., as well as Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals Inc.

Invenergy has been a regular bidder across these sales and is also an advisory participant in the Mountain West Geothermal consortium. The company’s existing geothermal lease portfolio extends across western US states like Nevada, Idaho, California and Utah,  where geothermal resources are most accessible.

(Updates with other winning bidders of New Mexico lease sale)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Inpex has been notified that all strike action will cease by 6 p.m. Wednesday, the Offshore Alliance, which represents the Australian Workers’ Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, said in a statement.

More than 400 union members endorsed the settlement at 6 a.m. this morning, the Offshore Alliance said in a social media post. One LNG train was shut at the Ichthys plant on Tuesday, according to the post.

Cargo loading has resumed at the Ichthys facility, Inpex Senior Vice President Corporate Bill Townsend said in an email confirming that agreement has been reached. 

The strikes threatened to exacerbate global LNG market tightness after the war in the Middle East choked supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Workers have engaged in industrial action since early June, downing tools for several hours a day, among other measures.

“Members have won an agreement that delivers significant gains in job security, pay, career progression, workplace rights and working arrangements,” the Offshore Alliance said in its statement.

A formal vote by union members is expected to take place soon, although the terms of the deal haven’t been confirmed by Inpex, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 made a sharp turn on Monday, ship-tracking data show, changing its next port of call to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates port from Gabon. Very large crude carrier Coslucky Lake, originally bound for South Africa, changed direction the same day, and is also signaling Fujairah. 

The diversions came hours after US and Iran reached an interim agreement on a peace deal, pledging in a draft memorandum to end their blockades and reopen the strait. The deal is set to be signed on Friday. The crucial waterway, responsible for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has been effectively closed since late February when the US and Israel first struck Iran.

While many shipowners are still in a wait-and-see mode, some with higher risk appetites are gearing up to lock in voyages to enter or exit the strait. First movers stand to benefit from higher rates due to a risk premium still attached to the trade. 

The number of empty supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, rose to about 60 this week, shipbrokers say, up from about three dozen earlier this month. The availability of empty tankers able to quickly enter the Gulf to pick up new cargoes will be crucial to the resumption of oil flows to global customers. 

There’s already been a flurry of activity by Iran-linked vessels this week, with a number of ships shifting position as the country prepares to sign the deal that could allow Tehran to start selling its oil. Four vessels switched on their transponders and appeared to be sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, according to ship-tracking data. 

Separately, other ships stuck in the Gulf are moving closer to Hormuz. Over the past day, at least two bulk carriers, a liquefied-natural-gas tanker and a container ship were observed sailing eastward within the gulf. They appear to be headed toward a cluster of vessels idling off Dubai, an anchorage area where shipowners can stock up on supplies and secure insurance cover before making the transit.

Qatar, meanwhile, is bringing some of its liquefied natural gas tankers back to the Middle East, as the major supplier prepares to ramp-up exports once Hormuz reopens. At least four empty LNG vessels owned by Qatar recently began heading back toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction, according to ship-tracking data.

Malta-flagged Kapodistrias 21 is owned by HN5051 Ltd., according to maritime database Equasis, which shares the same contact details as its Athens-based manager, Ensel SA. Hong Kong-flagged Coslucky Lake is managed by units of Chinese state-backed owner Cosco, its website shows. The companies didn’t immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least four empty LNG vessels owned by Qatar recently began heading back toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction, according to ship-tracking data. Another ship chartered by Qatar is also on its way to the region, the data shows. The tankers are all signaling Ras Laffan — the world’s largest LNG export plant in Qatar — as their next destination.

Four other Qatar-linked tankers are idling in the Gulf of Oman, the data shows, and could try to pass through Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. So far, Qatar has not brought an empty vessel into the gulf since the war began in February.

While the Qatari ships’ return to the region represents only a small share of the country’s roughly 70-tanker fleet, the move is another sign the producer is preparing to ramp up output should Hormuz reopen. Qatar is aiming to restore most of its export capacity within two months, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, and getting vessels to pick up the fuel will be a key part of the restart push.

The move comes as the US and Iran are expected to cement the deal to reopen the waterway as part of efforts to end their war. The interim pact, which is due to be signed on Friday, requires Tehran to ensure the movement of merchant ships through Hormuz, and for the US to lift its own blockade.

The return of LNG from Qatar stands to help ease a global supply crunch. Despite the tentative US-Iran peace agreement, prices for the fuel in Europe and Asia remain higher than pre-war levels. Qatar has been able to export a handful of shipments to buyers in Asia by masking the location of tankers, but those deliveries are still far lower than normal.

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The deal is part of Syria's broader initiatives to attract foreign capital and expertise to support and repair its energy infrastructure.

According to Yousef Qiblawy, President and CEO of the Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), the deal is a significant step forward for Syria's gas industry and shows that foreign partners are becoming more optimistic about investment prospects in the nation.

“We look forward to increasing production, improving operational efficiency and strengthening the energy system in a way that supports the national economy and helps meet the needs of citizens,” Qiblawy told SANA, Syria’s state news agency.

Syria's long-declining industry gets a boost

Qiblawy said last year ​that Syria aims to increase gas output by 4-5 million cubic metres per day ​within a year, according to Reuters. 

ConocoPhillips' Chairman and CEO, Ryan Lance, announced that the business has reached a deal to assist Syria's onshore gas resource development, laying the groundwork for the country's natural gas production to be restored and increased, whilst Alex MacDonald, CEO of Novaterra Energy, said the company looks forward to working with its partners and the Syrian government to advance the project.

President Ahmed Al Sharaa hosted talks between the three companies at the Presidential Palace in Damascus on Tuesday, along with Asaad Al Shaibani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates and Mohammad al-Bashir, the Minister of Energy, as Syria sees natural gas as central to developing its power plants and supporting industrial activity. 

The deal with ConocoPhillips comes after Al Bashir visited Washington earlier this month, looking to secure deals with the US private sector, reflecting warming relations between the countries. 

Growing E&P deals

The Syrian government has signed a slew of oil and gas deals this year, hoping to revive an economy that was marred by years of war and infighting, which were followed by sanctions on the Assad-led government. Last month, Syria signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, and QatarEnergy for offshore oil and gas exploration.

Additionally, it struck a preliminary agreement with Qatari company Power International, and US energy giant Chevron for offshore energy exploration in February. 

More importantly, Damascus has regained control over the Kurdish region, allowing it to sign a deal with US-based HKN Energy to operate the oil and gas fields in Hasakah. UAE’s Dana Gas is also investing, signing an initial agreement last year with SPC to develop gas fields in central Syria. 

Since the Syrian civil war, the country has lost close to 380,000 barrels of oil per day and 900 million cubic feet of gas daily. The new government aims to return to pre-war production levels, targeting one million barrels of oil per day by 2030. SPC has already begun work and has rehabilitated five out of seven oil wells in the Al Bishri field in the country’s central region. 

But first, a word on those profits. Bearish calls and predictions of an oil glut were kicked into the long grass after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. Subsequent developments saw the oil price rise by over 46% in the year to 12 June, using Brent as a benchmark. 

With Brent largely trading on news signals, rising as high as $110 per barrel and falling to $85, only to rise and fall again, the supply-side crisis that gripped the global market saw the supermajors gain from the volatility.

Bumper numbers

In a sense, European oil and gas majors, with their huge trading operations, may be considered the primary beneficiaries led by the three largest among them — Shell, bp, and TotalEnergies.

These companies do not typically publish the performance of their trading arms separately from headline profits. But that overall performance has been pretty telling this year. TotalEnergies saw its first-quarter earnings rise by 30%, bp saw its earnings more than double, and Shell saw a 24% uptick.

Meanwhile, US majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil saw their profits fall in the corresponding quarter of 2025 due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, they comfortably beat analyst expectations for the quarter, with hopes of much better performance as the year progresses.

That’s because even if peace prevails imminently, it will take the better part of six months for the oil market to normalise, given the scale of the outages, infrastructural damage, and disruption to energy cargo transits.

Defensive deployment of petrodollars

It is unsurprising that many majors have embarked on investing those extra petrodollars. The investment mix, though, is intriguing and comes across as an exercise in defensive capital deployment at a time of extreme cyclical volatility in the market.

Their pivot back to traditional energy appears to be a recurring theme. That quest entails seeking the next big play. For many, if not most supermajors, such a play happens to US shale in general and the country’s Permian basin in particular.

The US is now firmly part of the plan to invest more, not less, in global exploration, as Chevron CEO Mike Wirth put it. Speaking at the recently concluded Bloomberg Energy Security Executive Briefing in Houston, Wirth said: “I do think you’ll see this country [US] and this hemisphere become a more important part of the global energy system. The US and the Americas are very well set up with strong energy resources and a lot of access to blue-water ports.”

Accompanying this investment in global exploration is capital spending on US liquefied natural gas infrastructure and terminals stateside. The US Energy Information Administration projects the country’s LNG exports to rise to 17.2 Bcfd in 2026, up from 15.1 Bcfd.

Supermajors wanting a way into these plays have amplified their presence either via buy or build strategies, though TotalEnergies leads the pack in terms of equity investments.

Overall, despite higher oil prices, the International Energy Agency’s outlook suggests capital outlays on hydrocarbons are expected to rise by a mere 3% in 2026, driven mainly by investment in natural gas projects.

The IEA also expects net refinery capacity to grow, reflecting a slowdown in closures this year. But new refinery investment is expected to fall to “decade-level lows.”

Tech investments for a new geopolitical reality

As the majors continue to grapple with targeted investment in hydrocarbon exploration and infrastructure, they are also unmistakably utilising their recent windfall to invest in technology along two pathways.

The first entails investing in technologies such as industrial artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced analytics to optimise operations, such as refineries, and improve margins, especially on jet fuel.

The second involves attuning their venture capital strategies to adapt to new geopolitical realities in the wake of the Iran war via efficiency technologies. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg NEF, the majors slashed low-carbon spending by 65% in 2025.

That trend will likely accelerate, with the venture arms of the majors, from Chevron Technology Ventures to Shell Ventures, visibly shifting their focus to startups specialising in robotics, automation and advanced subsurface imaging. Come the end of the year, it appears that investment by supermajors in process efficiencies and natural gas might well lead the way.

The facility, agreed between Essar Energy Transition Fuels (EETF) and IRH Global Trading, is designed to diversify crude sourcing options, expand market access for refined products, and optimise working capital arrangements.

The deal comes at a time when refiners are facing heightened volatility in global energy markets due to loss of Russian supplies, alongside persistent geopolitical instability in key producing regions, and increasing pressure to secure reliable feedstock supplies.

Thus, access to diversified supply channels and integrated trading capabilities has become critical to maintaining margins and operational stability.

Strengthening market access

According to Essar, the deal would enhance the refinery's capacity to adapt to shifting market conditions and extract profit from both its trading and refining businesses.

EETF owns and operates the Stanlow refinery, which is one of the UK's largest refining complexes. It plays a key role in domestic fuel supply, accounting for a significant share of road transport fuel demand. Its strategic importance has grown amid broader concerns over Europe’s refining capacity constraints and energy security.

Against this backdrop, EETF has begun pursuing a broader strategy focused on industrial decarbonisation and low-carbon energy investments in the UK. It also plans to reduce Stanlow’s emissions by 90%.  

The company said the transaction with IRH forms part of its efforts to build stronger relationships with major players across the global energy value chain.

Bolstering the energy infrastructure

IRH Global Trading, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-headquartered IRH, acts as a global energy trading and liquidity provider. The parent company has investments across various verticals, such as critical minerals and other resources linked to the energy transition. 

For IRH, this deal means an expanding role in global energy trading, as Gulf countries look to diversify their economies. 

Prashant Ruia, Chairman of Essar Energy Transition, described the agreement as a strategically important transaction for the Stanlow refinery.

“We are delighted to partner with IRH Global Trading on this strategically important transaction for our Stanlow refinery in the UK,” Ruia said.

Ali Rashed Al Rashdi, Chief Executive Officer of IRH, said the partnership would support supply security and operational resilience at one of the UK’s key refining assets.

“We are pleased to partner with Essar Energy Transition Fuels to enhance supply security and operational resilience at a critical UK refining hub,” Al Rashdi said.

The agreement will enable state utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. to import gas at the proposed Zululand LNG terminal in Richards Bay, an industrial city on the country’s east coast, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the accord hasn’t been officially announced.

The fuel will be used at a 3,000-megawatt power plant nearby that has yet to be constructed, the people said. Exxon and Eskom declined to comment.

Plagued by years of blackouts, South Africa is attempting to improve the reliability of its electricity supply. It’s also trying to reduce emissions by transitioning away from burning coal, which is used in about 80% of the country’s power generation. Importing LNG is an opportunity to solve both those problems, but typically comes at a higher price.

The deal helps Exxon toward its strategic goal of doubling LNG supplies to more than 40 million tons a year in the decade through 2030. The company recently started up its Golden Pass export terminal on the US Gulf Coast and plans to make final decisions later this year on whether to proceed with the construction of similar facilities in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea. 

Eskom has called gas a “bridge fuel” that will help incorporate renewables into the grid by providing baseload power when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.

But South Africa produces little natural gas domestically and faces a long wait for gas turbines from suppliers such as Siemens AG and General Electric Co., meaning it’s poised to delay existing plans to shut about 20% of its coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2030. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Utility-scale solar generation in California exceeded power from gas during 82% of the days this year through May, according to a Tuesday report from the US Energy Information Association. While solar has supplied more power to the state’s grid for short periods in the past, this marks the first year when average generation in the first five months has outpaced the fossil fuel that’s the biggest source of US electricity. 

The solar industry is growing despite efforts from the Trump administration to thwart the use of renewable energy. US policies favor traditional electric sources like coal and nuclear, which can produce power around the clock, unlike solar and wind. In May, solar overtook coal in US power generation for the first time.

California is aggressively adding renewable energy to meet a 2045 goal of reaching carbon neutrality, and has installed more panels and energy storage than any US state. Utility-scale solar capacity climbed 19% in the two years through April, while gas capacity was flat, according to the report.

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Grid operator 50Hertz Transmission is set to announce on Wednesday that a consortium including Germany’s Siemens Energy AG won a tender for a 2-gigawatt converter platform, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t yet public. The government is considering whether to support the deal with up to €300 million ($348 million) in loan guarantees, the people said.

The state-backed initiative would mark a turnaround for Europe’s biggest economy a decade after it surrendered the production of such converters – vast platforms that feed flows from turbines into the grid — as it scaled back its offshore wind ambitions. As with a range of other components in wind and solar energy, converter production is now dominated by Chinese producers. That has prompted the European Union to try to support more local manufacturing. 

The consortium also comprises Belgian construction firm Smulders — a subsidiary of French civil engineering construction company Eiffage — and Neptun Werft, a shipbuilder based in the Baltic port of Rostock.

The consortium’s bid requires less steel and has an optimized design that proved superior, beating competition from companies such as Spain’s Dragados Offshore, one of the people said. In 2024, the economy ministry said that an offshore converter platform costs around €2.5 billion.

Spokespeople for 50Hertz, the economy ministry and Siemens Energy declined to comment. Eiffage and Neptun Werft didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Mission 300, created in 2024, has connected more than 50 million people to electricity across 40 nations and is now delivering electricity access at nearly double the pace recorded at its start, the World Bank and African Development Bank said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

“Mission 300 is helping countries move faster, connect more people, and build a platform that will last well beyond this effort — one others can use, build on, and scale for years to come,” Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank, said in the statement. “At the end of the day, electricity is not just about power. It is about what it enables: jobs, business, healthcare, education, and opportunity.” 

The plan, if successful, would bring power to more than half of the about 565 million Africans who don’t have access to electricity. The continent is home to more than four-fifths of the world’s population without power, with electrification rates in countries such as South Sudan, Burundi and Chad among the lowest globally. That limits productivity and hampers economic growth in some of the poorest nations on earth. 

The program evaluates energy projects and helps mobilize financing for those that qualify, with the goal of raising at least $90 billion from public, private and multilateral sources.

At least 7.5 million people in Tanzania, 4.6 million people in Ethiopia and a similar amount in Nigeria have benefited from the plan, the multilateral lenders said. 

A joint initiative of the World Bank and the AfDB, it is also backed by major climate and development organizations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, and Sustainable Energy for All, alongside governments, development finance institutions and private-sector partners.

This project “must become the launchpad for faster electrification to enhance food security on account of affordable irrigation; increase capacity to store medicines for better health outcomes, and spur more inclusive economic and social empowerment,” AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah said.

To date, the AfDB and World Bank have committed nearly $15 billion to the project and attracted about $4.5 billion in co-financing, while additional development partners have pledged more than $7 billion, the lenders said. 

The program has also seen 30 nations set up National Energy Compacts, country-led plans to strengthen energy systems and expand access to affordable electricity, they said. Additional compacts are expected to be unveiled by Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Djibouti, Gabon, Rwanda and Uganda this week, according to the lenders.

Mission 300 “proves that African-led big bets, empowered by bold investment and partnership, can deliver results quickly and at scale,” Rajiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, said. 

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(Updates with Rockefeller Foundation comment in final paragraph)

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Global benchmark Brent fell below $83 a barrel, dropping for a fourth day, while West Texas Intermediate was near $81. The interim agreement is due to be signed by both sides in Switzerland on Friday, although Washington and Tehran have yet to release the text of their memorandum.

Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut price outlooks for the coming quarters, with the latter now assuming Persian Gulf exports will reach pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously forecast.

President Donald Trump insisted that the strait would be clear on Friday. “We have a lot of lanes right now already,” he told reporters at the Group of Seven summit in France. “It’s going to be open and it’s toll-free.”

Oil’s drop to the lowest since early March has erased the bulk of the gains seen during the conflict, easing inflationary pressures just as policymakers at the Federal Reserve assess interest rates this week. Still, many questions remain over how the interim pact will be implemented, including concerns over shipping safety, operating rules and whether the chokepoint — which carried about a fifth of oil supply before the war — will stay toll-free.

The lack of detail has kept the market cautious. Persian Gulf energy officials said they had been inundated with inquiries from buyers about whether crude could once again move through the strait, while shipping executives and traders said they need more clarity before committing vessels to the route.

Still, Morgan Stanley predicted that following the deal, Dated Brent would average $90 a barrel between July and September, down from an earlier call for $100. The fourth-quarter outlook was reduced by $15 to $80.

“Much is still to be negotiated and key risks remain, but for now, this is a key step toward a de-escalation of the conflict and higher oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz,” analysts including Martijn Rats wrote in a note. “We see 50% of production back by Sept., and 80% by Dec., slightly faster than before.”

At Goldman Sachs, analysts including Daan Struyven said they expected Brent to average $80 in the fourth quarter, $10 less than their earlier call.

RBC Capital Markets LLC struck a more cautious tone. “We think it will take months to reach anything close to February 27 levels,” analysts including Helima Croft said in a note, referring to the date before the start of the war. “Peak Hormuz flows may actually be in the rearview mirror,” they said.

In a reflection of the shifting dynamics, Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts — has narrowed. While still in a bullish, backwardated pattern, with the nearer price above the next one, the gap was 83 cents a barrel on Tuesday. A month ago, it was above $4.

Further insight into market conditions is due on Wednesday, when the International Energy Agency is due to release its monthly analysis on the outlook. The Paris-based body advises major economies on policy, and helped to coordinate releases from members’ strategic stockpiles during the war.

The effective closure of Hormuz — which has been subject to a double blockade by Iran and the US — has cut oil flows from the region, triggering the drawdown of commercial and strategic inventories. The US’ emergency supply of crude hit the lowest since 1983, according to data Monday.

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Aluminum, another commodity heavily impacted by the war in Iran, saw production hit a record in May, according to the statistics bureau on Tuesday. Meanwhile, China’s worst coal disaster in years forced miners to trim output as the authorities tightened up on safety.

Oil refining volumes extended declines, dropping 9.1% year-on-year to 53.72 million tons, the lowest since August 2022. State-owned refiners ended the month with an average run rate of 66.3%, a low for a dataset that began in late 2021.

The burning question for the market, now that a deal has been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, is whether Chinese demand for fuels like gasoline and diesel will normalize, or whether the rapid electrification of the country’s transport network has permanently dented consumption. GL Consulting is among those that expect refining activity to remain subdued, forecasting a 5% drop in 2026.  

The interim agreement between the US and Iran should help relieve severe tightness in the global market for aluminum. China, the world’s largest producer, has taken advantage of the shortfall from the Middle East to maximize output, which rose again in May by 1.7% to 3.89 million tons. 

But the end to hostilities could prove an inflection point if Chinese exports contract in coming months as Middle Eastern supply gradually resumes. Domestic demand remains tepid, while the test of the government’s capacity ceiling could leave smelters at risk of increased regulatory scrutiny. 

Nationwide coal output was affected by heightened safety inspections, falling 1.7% to 397.22 million tons. The disruptions are likely to persist for longer in Shanxi, the top producing province where the deadly accident occurred. Other hubs may be quicker to recover as the government seeks to ensure sufficient power over the peak summer period.

Electricity output rose 4.2% in May, with southern regions recording peak loads one month earlier than usual due to El Niño-driven heat.

Steel production fell 2.7% to 84.36 million tons as mills continue to adjust to weaker demand stemming from the ongoing property crisis and lackluster economic activity. Lower steel prices and higher coking coal costs because of the Shanxi accident have also compressed margins.

On the Wire

China’s consumer spending contracted for the first time since the pandemic and investment deteriorated, exposing risks still facing the economy even as it benefits from booming exports and a deescalation in tensions around Iran. Home prices fell at a quicker pace, halting green shoots seen at the start of the year that had raised hopes of a recovery. 

If the announced US-Iran deal holds and eventually restores energy flows, it could ease a key constraint on China’s economy, said Bloomberg Economics.

China’s aluminum surplus is set to shrink by 40% to about 634,000 tons this year as a slower 1.8% demand expansion still outpaces a 0.8% supply increase, said Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Called Minerva, Repsol’s Spanish renewables portfolio comprises 705 MW of operational renewable energy capacity, including 13 wind farms with a combined capacity of 402 MW and six solar photovoltaic plants totalling 303 MW. 

All assets entered commercial operation during 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. 

The portfolio separately includes a development pipeline of more than 565 MW of hybridisation opportunities spanning wind, solar and battery energy storage projects.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals.

The deal is part of Repsol’s larger renewables strategy, which also involves partnering to accelerate growth, rotating assets selectively, and optimising the financing structure of its low-carbon business. 

A broader strategy to optimise returns

According to the company, the deal forms part of Repsol’s broader renewables strategy, which includes optimising the financial structure of its low-carbon business, accelerating growth through partnerships and selectively rotating assets. The company said the transaction marks its eighth renewable asset rotation to date, covering a combined 3.85 GW of capacity across Spain and the US. Repsol currently operates 6 GW of renewable energy capacity globally.

For Masdar, the acquisition aligns with its goal of reaching 100 GW of renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030. The company’s operational portfolio in the Iberian Peninsula is now expected to reach 4.1 GW, once this transaction is completed, with approximately 1 GW of additional projects under development. 

Back in 2024, Masdar had bought Spanish green energy firm Saeta Yield from Canada's ‌Brookfield Renewable for $1.4 billion. Then, in October 2025, it bought a 50% stake in Endesa’s solar projects, and partnered with Moeve on a $1.2 billion hydrogen venture. 

Increased funding for renewables

Last year in December, Repsol had secured €550 million in syndicated financing for its renewables business, which was funded by Banco Sabadell, Abanca, CaixaBank, BNP Paribas, UniCredit Bank and Spain’s Official Credit Institute.

The Masdar-Repsol agreement was signed in Abu Dhabi by Masdar Chief Executive Officer Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi and João Costeira, Executive Managing Director of Low-Carbon Generation at Repsol.

“Spain is one of Europe’s fastest-growing major economies, and renewable energy is playing a critical role in powering that growth,” Al Ramahi said. “This transaction strengthens Masdar’s portfolio while deepening our support for Spain’s economic ambitions. We look forward to investing in the growth of these assets and building on our partnership with Repsol.”

“This agreement marks another step forward in our strategy to maximise profitability, enabling us to bring in a leading global partner in the renewable energy sector, while further strengthening the value of our high-quality asset portfolio,” said Costeira. 

The offer by the British company was the best overall, in terms of the supply chain, timings and returns, Anna Borg, chief executive officer of state-owned utility Vattenfall AB said at a briefing in Stockholm. 

Rolls Royce, which competed with US-based Vernova in the final decision process, is gaining momentum with its technology, having been picked previously by both the UK and Czech Republic to deliver new reactors. The modules will be constructed in these countries and being European was an advantage, but not the sole reason, Borg said. 

“It’s a supply chain that is already well developed, especially regarding critical components that will be important to us and the majority of the suppliers are also geographically close to where we are,” Borg said. “That means less risk for disturbances in transportation routes, but also less exposure to geopolitical impacts.”

Building out Sweden’s nuclear capacity was a central promise from the center-right coalition ahead of the last election in 2022. With the electrification of everything from heavy industry to transportation, Sweden’s power demand is expected to surge in the coming decades along with most other developed nations.

Financial details of the contract weren’t disclosed by Vattenfall or project company Videberg Kraft, but the UK government said in a statement that it was a “multibillion-pound deal,” helped by Business Secretary Peter Kyle’s visit to Sweden earlier this year. The Rolls-Royce SMR is in the final stages of the UK regulatory process, the company said in a separate statement. 

Rolls-Royce SMR previously signed a deal with Great British Energy – Nuclear for the nation’s first SMRs, as well as an agreement with the Czech Republic’s CEZ Group. 

Located on the nation’s west coast, the so-called small modular reactors would provide a combined output on par with Sweden’s largest reactor today. The target is that they will start to generate power by the middle of the next decade. 

Three Reactors

The project includes three reactors of 470 megawatts each. They will be built simultaneously in part, with construction on the second starting before the first is completed, Borg said.

The project company, Videberg Kraft, was set up last year by Vattenfall, which was the majority owner. The state has plans to own 60% of the shares, with Vattenfall holding 20%. Industrikraft, a consortium which includes some of the nation’s biggest power consumers, has the remaining stake.

Sweden has six reactors in operation now, providing about a third of the nation’s power. Hydro generation is the biggest power source, with almost half. However, a growing share of weather-dependent renewables has led to price volatility, imbalances and a lack of available grid capacity. The solution, according to the center-right cabinet, has to be nuclear. 

But it’s a gamble given how technologies such as solar and wind continue to get cheaper, and critics argue that energy storage and other rapidly developing technologies could balance weather-dependent power sources. 

Videberg Kraft is not the only firm looking at building new reactors in Sweden. Applications have also been filed by startup Blykalla AB and nuclear services company Studsvik AB. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Shipowners are working through the news and trying to understand the details of the agreement — which may not be available for days — meaning there is little observed traffic in and around the corridor in the early hours of Monday.

The Disha, though, is testing the waters. 

The LNG carrier, under a long-term charter with an Indian state-owned importer, is heading into the eastern arm of Hormuz, toward the Gulf of Oman, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The tanker picked up a shipment from Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility around March 1, according to the data.

Hormuz — a vital waterway for global oil and gas — has been effectively closed since the start of US and Israeli strikes at the end of February. According to President Donald Trump, the strait will now reopen when an agreement is signed on Friday.

A deal that unblocks the strategic corridor and to end two competing blockades is welcome news for importers and for the wider market — but it will face multiple hurdles in practice, given the leverage provided to Tehran by its grip on the strait.

Clusters of vessels on either side of the strait will come into focus as a result, as traders and shipowners monitor groups at anchor off Dubai and in the Gulf of Oman, all of which can quickly decide to make the crossing and begin to move.

One catch is that spoofing and other tactics, including a sharp increase in crossings with transponders switched off, can make it difficult to monitor the situation in real time. Even among the visible flotillas, some ships have not signaled their location for days or weeks.

European natural gas prices fell as much as 5.8% in early Asian trading on Monday. Resuming LNG traffic through Hormuz would help ease a supply crunch that had kept gas prices in Europe and Asia elevated since March. Oil prices also slumped at the open, with Brent down almost 5%.

(Updates location of tanker in the fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The waterway — a vital conduit for global oil and gas — has been at the heart of the conflict from the start, and the urgent need to resume traffic has been a vital theme in peace discussions. Iran’s grip on the strait, combined with a US blockade, has created an unprecedented disruption to the global energy trade, all but cutting off some of the world’s largest producers and forcing even major players to resort to “dark” transits.

Even so, a temporary solution announced by the US and Iran — and a declaration from US President Donald Trump that the strait will reopen on Friday, when the agreement is signed — has left the industry questioning what that will mean in practice.

With limited information so far, there was little activity in the strait in the early hours of Monday as the news rippled out, with the exception of one liquefied natural gas tanker, Disha, testing the waters as it heads toward Hormuz.

Nearly 600 vessels are still stuck in the Gulf and primed to exit, while hundreds are also waiting empty on the other side, according to Kpler. While in theory this should unleash millions of barrels of oil, there will still be practical impediments, including prosaic problems like the need to remove barnacles from ship hulls, and competition to actually transit a narrow corridor.

The exact count of observed vessels may change as more ships that have turned off their transponders are added to the tally.

Security also remains an open question, as purported deals over the past months have ended with Iranian forces firing at ships or seizing vessels. There is then the uncertainty over mines in the strait, making routes and insurance cover crucial.

Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said security was front of mind for all shipowners attempting to understand the situation on the ground.

“The maritime industry understands that. Captains understand it. Crews understand it,” he said. “They know that a single miscalculation, a single strike, or a single political decision can inject new friction into the situation and once again place their lives at risk.”

Some oil producers have gradually found workarounds to send tankers through, at times with support from the US, but crossings have remained at a fraction of pre-war levels, when an average of 135 tankers crossed daily.

Laden vessels will likely be the first to get ready to move out, while empty ships already in the Gulf may start to load cargoes over the coming days. There are currently more than 300 empty vessels waiting in the Gulf of Oman, many of which could transit Hormuz to enter the Gulf once access is restored.

Tankers make up the bulk of ships currently stuck inside the Gulf, the data from data intelligence firm Kpler show, a reflection of the highly valuable oil cargoes they carry that have become a focus during the war. Some 98 crude tankers are still stuck inside, while carriers lifting dirty-petroleum products number 88. 

More risk-tolerant shipowners will be the first to move, said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

“We may see vessels rushing out once Iran opens the gate,” Xu said. “Although it remains to be seen whether Tehran will impose any control measures.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The provisional agreement announced by the two sides on Sunday night — President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday — leaves a narrow window of 60 days to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program that bedeviled his predecessors for years. The memorandum of understanding, which has yet to be released, will be formally signed on June 19.

That gap raised the possibility that details on the text remained unresolved and the signing could be derailed. Already, differences were emerging between the two sides in what may have actually been achieved, while the simmering conflict between Israel and Lebanon could also still lead to a breakdown.

Trump says this initial deal amounts to the start of a process that will lead to peace in the region. Skeptics argue it may end up being nothing more than a temporary reprieve given it’s not clear either side is ready to compromise on the thorniest issues — how much economic relief to give Iran, what to do about its nuclear program and how to address its ballistic missile program. 

“It’s not implausible they could have a temporary deal to reopen the Strait,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution. “Beyond that, a comprehensive deal is not plausible now.”

Adding to the uncertainty is a lack of trust between the US and Iran, stoked by US suspicions that Tehran wants to reconstitute its nuclear program. 

Trump’s hawkish advisers argue that Iran will look for any chance it can to undermine the deal. Iranian officials say the US bombed the country twice before during negotiations, and point to attacks that killed much of its top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and family members of his successor.

“We are facing enemies who will not miss any opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said. “Even if the 60-day negotiations lead to a final agreement with Iran, the country will remain prepared for any conspiracy by its enemies.”

Also looming is the role of the US Congress, where lawmakers have said any extensive sanctions relief must get approval from the Senate. 

That’s the result of a 2015 law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, that was put into effect to hem in President Barack Obama as he negotiated a deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. Trump backed out of that agreement in 2018 — further sowing mistrust with Iran.

“I will be watching closely the ensuing negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other matters,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally and longtime Iran critic, wrote on X. “I am somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.”

Also unresolved are issues that Iran hawks in the US have demanded answers to for years. They include the fate of Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. There is no indication the subsequent negotiations will even address those issues.

“Not one penny should be released to this murderous regime so long as it continues to build missiles, support its terrorist proxies, and withhold funds from victims of Iranian terrorism,” Pastor John Hagee, who spoke at Trump’s second inauguration, wrote on social media.

An even bigger wild card may be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been deeply skeptical that the US can strike a deal with Iran that would satisfy Israel. Trump has grown visibly frustrated in recent days with Netanyahu, saying Sunday that he demanded Israel stop its attacks on Lebanon, which had roiled the negotiations.

“Iran has been very pragmatic on how they approach all of this. They realize Israel is going to try to derail this,” said Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors. “Trump will need to rein in Netanyahu or make increasing concessions throughout coming days to incentivize Iran to restrain itself.”

Nate Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who worked on Iran issues at the State Department and White House National Security Council until last year, expressed additional concerns. He said the mechanics around reopening the strait — a move that sits at the heart of the agreement that will be signed on June 19 — still haven’t been finalized.

“Yes, we will see an increase in traffic, but the status quo is still fragile,” Swanson said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A second infrastructure question is now forming. It concerns a different commodity, a different set of corridors, and a different category of actors. The underlying logic is the same: a scarce, strategically valuable input is being built at scale under conditions of geopolitical fragmentation, and decisions taken in the next 18 months will set pricing power and strategic leverage for 15 years. The commodity is compute. The actors are hyperscalers, sovereign wealth funds, and the utilities that will supply them. The question is where the physical infrastructure of AI is built, and on whose terms.

For energy executives, this is an energy story that was filed under technology. Three interlocking pressures (the cost and availability of firm power, control over model and chip capabilities, and the regulatory standing of jurisdictions hosting the infrastructure) are now shaping where hundreds of billions of dollars of AI capex will land. The map that emerges from this process will reshape power markets, offtake structures, and industrial policy across at least three continents. Senior executives who read that map correctly will find their companies closer to the centre of the story than the conventional narrative credits them with.

Decisions made about AI infrastructure today are setting the cost of capital, the shape of offtake contracts, and the direction of industrial policy for the energy sector well beyond the AI segment itself.

Why the Gulf moved first, and what its lead actually costs to close

The single most durable advantage in the AI infrastructure race is cheap firm power. The Gulf is currently executing on that advantage faster than any region. On 13 May 2025, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund launched HUMAIN, a full-stack AI subsidiary, alongside partnership announcements with NVIDIA (several hundred thousand GPUs over five years), AMD (a $10 billion, 500 MW compute deployment), and AWS (a $5 billion AI zone). In parallel, the UAE's Stargate UAE project, anchored by G42, OpenAI, Oracle, NVIDIA and SoftBank, targets a total campus capacity of 5 GW. Its first 200 MW operational block is scheduled for delivery in Q3 2026.

These announcements are the direct monetisation of the region's most durable comparative advantage at a moment when the global economy is pricing intelligence as the binding input.

The numbers behind this advantage are straightforward. Industrial power tariffs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE range from $0.03 to $0.05 per kWh. In Germany, Ireland, and parts of the UK, the equivalent industrial rate exceeds $0.15. Applied across a single 500 MW hyperscale AI campus running at 80% utilisation over a 15- year asset life, the cumulative electricity cost delta reaches approximately $5.78 billion.

No capital structure, tax regime, or engineering optimisation closes a spread of that magnitude.

Cheap power alone does not win the decision. Speed to interconnection, regulatory certainty, and the willingness of sovereign capital to underwrite the build matter as much. This is where the Gulf's integrated model (state-owned generation, state-owned land, state-directed permitting, and a sovereign wealth fund covering the investment) compresses the decision cycle in ways federal systems struggle to replicate. A project that takes five to seven years to reach commercial operation in PJM or ERCOT can achieve first power in 18 months in Dhahran or Ruwais.

The US designs the chips and writes the models. Its grid may not catch up in time

The United States holds the opposite position to the Gulf. It dominates the capability layer (frontier models, advanced chip design, the majority of the world's AI research talent), but its grid is the binding constraint on converting that capability into deployed infrastructure at home.

As of the end of 2024, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory reported approximately 2,300 GW of generation and storage capacity actively seeking interconnection to the US grid, almost double the country's total installed capacity of about 1,280 GW. The median wait, from interconnection request to commercial operation, has doubled over two decades to about five years for projects built in 2024.

Without Meta taking a more active voice in the need to expand the amount of power that’s on the system, it’s not happening as quickly as we would like.

The asymmetry that follows is the central feature of the current AI build-out. The US can design chips and write the models but cannot reliably secure the power plants needed to run them at scale within its home territory, inside a commercially relevant window. Hyperscalers are responding on two fronts simultaneously: scouring the continental US to acquire existing interconnection rights and placing significant new capacity abroad in jurisdictions with faster build speeds. Brookfield's $5 billion commitment to Bloom Energy to provide fuel-cell power for AI data centres is one answer to the domestic problem. Gulf deployments are the other.

The US response carries a second lever beyond domestic generation: the export control apparatus governing who can buy the highest-performance chips. The May 2025 HUMAIN announcements were possible because the Trump administration rescinded the Biden-era diffusion rule that would have capped advanced chip exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. That single regulatory decision, made and communicated in a single week, reordered the AI infrastructure map. It also made visible how contingent the emerging map is.

China 

The structural reason export controls exist is the parallel buildout taking place inside China. China's domestic AI infrastructure programme has moved at a pace comparable to the Gulf, supported by domestic chip design (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren), state-directed compute allocation, and a generation buildout dedicated to AI load. Independent estimates place new AI-dedicated generation capacity announced or under construction in China through 2028 at over 50 GW, with hyperscale campuses anchored in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Ningxia, where industrial tariffs are competitive with the Gulf. The result is two AI infrastructure stacks operating in parallel rather than one. Both are real, both are growing, and both are commercially significant. Energy companies, sovereign allocators, and EPCs across the rest of the world are increasingly working with one, the other, or both.

AI infrastructure carries 1970s-style political risk under 2020s-style contracts

Energy infrastructure has always been shaped by the stability of the contracts that underpin it. Long-tenor gas supply agreements, cross-border pipeline easements, and multilateral investment treaties exist precisely because large capital cannot be deployed against political risk that shifts annually. AI infrastructure is being built under weaker contractual protection than that, and the industry has not yet priced the gap.

Gulf AI deals are, in substance, hybrid trade-and-infrastructure agreements. They combine chip allocations governed by US export licences, host country sovereign capital commitments, compute contracts with Western cloud providers, and training-and-talent programmes tied to local workforce policy. Each of these components sits under a different regulatory regime, and any one of them can move unilaterally. The stability of the whole depends on the stability of the weakest strand.

The existence of two parallel AI stacks adds a second analytical layer for energy executives evaluating offtake. Counterparties that operate Western-stack infrastructure (chips, foundation models, and cloud platforms sourced through US export license regimes) carry one risk profile. Counterparties that operate Chinese-stack infrastructure (Huawei Ascend, domestic foundation models, and Chinese cloud providers) carry a different one. Both are commercially viable. Each has its own regulatory dependencies, supply chain exposures, and capital sources. A 15-year PPA written for an AI campus needs to specify which stack the counterparty operates, what happens if the counterparty switches, and how the offtaker is protected against supply-side disruption on either side. The standard PPA template does not yet contain that language.

Energy companies considering co-location with AI infrastructure (whether through behind-the-meter power contracts, long-term PPAs to data centre operators, or direct equity participation in campus developments) introduce a risk the industry has not previously had to underwrite. The offtake counterparty may be commercially sound, but its ability to operate the asset depends on a chip supply and model licensing regime that is not under the counterparty›s control. That is a different risk profile from an LNG offtaker going bankrupt, and it requires a different analytical apparatus to price.

The implication for capital allocators is that the right comparison for AI infrastructure is not cloud computing economics. It is the risk architecture of cross-border energy infrastructure in the 1970s and 1980s, when large projects required political risk insurance, multilateral guarantees, and carefully negotiated host government agreements to be bankable. Those instruments existed because the underlying exposure was similar to that of AI infrastructure today. Firms applying that institutional memory to the new asset class will underwrite better and charge less than those treating it as an extension of cloud computing economics.

The third pole, with the highest upside and the tightest decision window

The Gulf has resolved its power question. The US has resolved its capability question. Southeast Asia is advancing on both fronts, which is why the region carries the highest upside in the global AI build-out. Committed and announced AI infrastructure capital across ASEAN now exceeds $50 billion. The energy systems expected to serve that capital are not yet built.

Thailand: the BOI signal

Thailand's Board of Investment approved 36 data centre projects worth approximately 728 billion baht (about $23.2 billion) in 2025. BOI investment applications surged 67% to $60.2 billion across all sectors in the same year, with data centres as the leading category. The BOI approved seven new DC projects at its first 2026 meeting. Thailand's Cloud First Policy is in force, and EGAT has been authorised to sell power directly to data centres above 200 MW. The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), spanning Chonburi, Rayong, and Chachoengsao, is the primary development zone, with Google's announced data centre on WHA Group land standing as the largest single ASEAN DC commitment to date.

The constraint is firm generation. Thailand's grid remains roughly 60% natural gas dependent, and its firm generation pipeline through 2028 covers a fraction of the peak load that approved DC projects will create at full build-out. The gap between BOI-approved capacity and firm generation under construction is the single most important variable in Thailand's AI infrastructure story over the next 18 months.

Malaysia: the Johor-Singapore corridor

Malaysia's Johor-Singapore corridor has attracted commitments from Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, ByteDance, and regional operators, including YTL Power and Sea Limited, that collectively exceed $15 billion. Johor's proximity to Singapore (which has a moratorium on new data centre capacity) gives the corridor an arbitrage role: Singapore demand, Malaysian land and power. The structural risk is grid mix. Malaysia's generation remains over 80% thermal (gas and coal combined), and its renewable rollout trails both its targets and the pace of DC commissioning.

Hyperscalers with 24/7 carbon-free energy commitments cannot meet those commitments on the current Malaysian grid, and will not be able to without a step-change in firm clean power build-out. The corridor's longer-term retention risk runs through that gap.

Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines

Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines each carry pipelines in the low-to-mid single-digit billions, and each presents a distinct structural question. Indonesia's announced DC pipeline approaches $6.5 billion, anchored by Microsoft's $1.7 billion Jakarta cloud region announcement and a series of smaller hyperscale and colocation commitments. The challenge is grid: roughly 80% of generation is currently thermal, and the planned PLN renewables build-out is paced to a different curve than DC commissioning.

Vietnam's pipeline sits at approximately $3.2 billion, with Viettel, VNPT and FPT operating domestic infrastructure and international hyperscalers exploring entry. The grid is comparatively cleaner (around 50% thermal) thanks to significant hydro, but Vietnam's hydro capacity is concentrated in the north, while DC demand is forming in the south. The North-South transmission corridor is the binding constraint, not generation mix. Hyperscale siting decisions in Vietnam will track grid reinforcement schedules more closely than headline renewable capacity.

The Philippines carries a lighter pipeline at around $2.1 billion, dominated by ePLDT, Globe, and Converge IT, alongside hyperscale interest tied to the Luzon Economic Corridor announced in 2024. Generation mix is around 78% thermal, with the firm generation pipeline through 2028 not yet matched to announced data centre load.

The China dimension

ASEAN AI infrastructure cannot be read without the China dimension running through it. Chinese hyperscalers operate meaningful regional capacity: Huawei Cloud has data centre presence in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; Alibaba Cloud operates regions in Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia; Tencent Cloud has expanded into Indonesia and Thailand. A substantial share of the firm power that will serve all five ASEAN markets, including campuses operated by Western hyperscalers, is being engineered and built by Chinese EPCs and equipped with Chinese gas turbines, transformers, transmission equipment, battery storage and cooling systems. PowerChina, CEEC, Sungrow, CATL, and BYD are visible counterparties in the regional buildout.

This is a new reality. We have to keep the lights on, power the AI economy, and make sure no one gets left behind.

ASEAN governments are increasingly making explicit choices about which stack each project supports. Those choices are commercial and technical before they are political: which equipment is bankable, which financing is available, which timeline is achievable, which standards apply. The choices are also durable: a campus built around one stack rarely converts to the other inside its 15-year asset life. The map of ASEAN AI infrastructure is being drawn through these decisions as much as through the BOI approvals and PPA discussions covered earlier in this section.

The ASEAN window

In aggregate, the resulting situation across the five markets is the textbook definition of high variance. If the region's Independent Power Producers (IPPs), utilities, and regulators can coordinate firm power expansion at the pace AI capital requires, ASEAN becomes an additional pole on the global AI infrastructure map.

The decision point is not 10 years away. It is in the next 18 months. Resolution will not happen in one capital or through one bilateral agreement. It will happen through serial engagement between operators, hyperscalers, sovereign allocators, and regulators whose decisions sit upstream of every project.

Strategic implications

The conventional reading of the AI build-out framed it as a technology story with energy consequences. The sequence now runs the other way: firm, cheap, fast-to-connect power is the constraint that determines where AI infrastructure goes. Energy companies, utilities, and sovereign allocators hold more agency in this build-out than the prevailing narrative credits them with.

Three implications follow:

• First, capacity planning: AI load forecasting needs to enter capacity plans as a structural variable. A single 500 MW hyperscale campus is a larger load than most industrial cities, and the decision to host or refuse one reshapes a utility's capital plan for a decade.
• Second, offtake structures: the standard PPA was not designed for counterparties whose operational viability depends on chip export regimes and foundation-model licensing terms. Risk-sharing provisions, change-of-law clauses, and minimum offtake guarantees need to be redrafted to reflect the actual risk geometry.
• Third, industrial policy framing: governments are beginning to treat AI-ready generation capacity as strategic infrastructure, on par with pipelines, LNG terminals, and grid interconnections. Companies that align with that framing early will shape the regulatory environment rather than be shaped by it.

A fourth implication sits underneath these. The industry's established playbook for pricing political and regulatory risk, built over decades of cross-border oil, gas, and LNG projects, contains most of the tools needed to underwrite AI infrastructure correctly. Those tools have not yet fully migrated across. Political risk insurance, host government agreements with stabilisation clauses, multilateral guarantees, and carefully structured offtake priority rights were all developed in response to the kind of contingent, multi-jurisdictional exposure that AI infrastructure now carries.

The most resilient position in the emerging map belongs to actors who operate across all four dimensions simultaneously: exposure to cheap firm power, meaningful influence over the capability stack that runs on it, jurisdictional standing that survives political cycles, and a clear operating relationship with both AI infrastructure stacks. Few organisations currently do. The ones that move first to build that position will define what the energy-intelligence convergence looks like for the next industrial era. The next 12 to 18 months are when the map gets drawn. After that, the positions are taken.

• This Market Outlook report was produced for AixEnergy. For more information and to register as a delegate, visit AixEnergy2026.

“This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region,” US President Donald Trump said in a post on social media. “With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!” he said, adding: "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"

While oil prices slipped to their lowest since March on Monday following the announcement, officials and energy experts cautioned that a return to normalcy for energy markets and shipping in the world’s most critical chokepoint, as well as the resumption of pre-war energy production, could still be weeks and months away.

What does the initial US-Iran MoU say? 

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) announced by both US and Iran is scheduled to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. Based on the agreements reached, the war will end “permanently and immediately on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement, adding that the naval blockade against Iran will be “lifted immediately and entirely”.

Over the weekend, President Trump had promised an agreement would be reached by Sunday, his 80th birthday. But details of the MoU provisions remained sketchy and the two sides have not released a copy of the agreement, suggesting that key sticking points have been left for the next stage of talks.

According to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, “with the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.” 

“Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” he said in a post on X.

“After the initial relief, the fact that the contents of the MoU are not known is likely to inject unease and uncertainty into the market. Until the MoU is made public, expect a full-on narrative war between Washington and Tehran on its contents. That could mean a week of uncertainty and volatility for the oil market."
- Vandana Hari; founder of Vanda Insights and a columnist for Energy Connects

Iranian officials told Reuters that the MoU removes the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and extends the current ceasefire for 60 days. The signing of the MoU on Friday sets the stage for a 60-day technical discussions on the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme.

How did oil markets react to the deal?

Oil prices tumbled to their lowest since March on Monday after the deal was announced. Brent crude futures fell $4.08, or 4.7%, to $83.25 a barrel by 0415 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate was at $80.53, down $4.35, or 5.1%. Both contracts also fell by more than 3% on Friday.

But those prices are still well above the roughly $70 per barrel where oil was trading before the war started.

“After the initial relief, the fact that the contents of the MoU are not known is likely to inject unease and uncertainty into the market,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights and a columnist for Energy Connects. “Will the language be made public only upon signing on Friday? If yes, that’s going to be a nervous wait. Until the MoU is made public, expect a full-on narrative war between Washington and Tehran on its contents. That could mean a week of uncertainty and volatility for the oil market,” she said.

What happens in the Strait of Hormuz after the MoU?

According to President Trump, the strait would reopen on June 19, after the agreement is signed and mines are removed from the waterway. That would bring an end to Iran’s attacks on shipping and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, Reuters reported.

President Trump said there would be a “toll-free” opening of the strait once the agreement is signed in Switzerland, suggesting that Iran had moved away from its earlier position of charging commercial shipping for passage.

However, shipowners and traders reacted with caution to the announcement, with many saying they would wait for more details in order to assess whether safe transits are possible after months of false starts.

Before the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway handled around 20% of global oil supply in a market of more than 100 million barrels a day. In addition, nearly 600 vessels are still stuck in the Arabian Gulf awaiting access to exit the strait, according to Kpler.

With limited information so far, there was little activity in the strait in the early hours of Monday as the news rippled out, with the exception of one liquefied natural gas tanker, Disha, testing the waters  as it heads toward Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.

How long will it take for energy markets to return to normal?

Despite the MoU announcement, analysts cautioned against a fast return to normal  for energy markets and said that assumptions that markets will quickly revert to pre-war conditions need to scrutinised.

 “A stop-and-start ceasefire that repeatedly disrupts shipping routes, delays mine-clearing operations, or enables periodic attacks on critical infrastructure will slow the return of supply and keep risk premiums elevated. Gulf producers remain committed to their role as reliable suppliers, but stability cannot be manufactured overnight, and globally, inventories are at multiyear lows,” said Landon Derentz, Vice President for Energy and Infrastructure at the Atlantic Council.

“It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place… particularly to get people on the ground to restart some of these assets,” Daniel Evans, Global Head of Fuels and Refining Research at S&P Global Energy, told Euro News. “To bring a ship in, you need to be confident that you’ve got a big enough window of safety to bring it in, load it and move it out," he added.

In addition, producers in the Middle East who paused extracting oil from the ground during the war when they ran out of storage space, would also require a longer lead time to restart operations.

“Another challenge is that the war caused structural damage. Portions of the region’s downstream infrastructure and liquefied natural gas export capacity, including facilities at Ras Laffan, will require extensive repairs. Even under the most optimistic scenario, a return to business as usual will take time,” Derentz, who is also the Morningstar Chair for global energy security at the Council’s Global Energy Center, added.

How are Gulf producers placed in resuming regular energy supplies once Hormuz reopens?

According to Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are already using alternate pipelines or routes besides the Strait of Hormuz to deliver oil, may be among the quickest to resume production once the strait reopens. 

“If the strait genuinely reopens – and, critically, if maritime traffic can move without the threat of missiles, drones, or mines – it would be unwise to bet against the ingenuity and determination of the energy sector. Oil-storage facilities throughout the Gulf remain well-stocked, ready to offer immediate relief to markets, while thousands of engineers and technicians are already working to restore production and export infrastructure to pre-war levels,” said Derentz.

All of the texts — there were at least three — include similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around its nuclear program. 

But they diverge in key respects, making it hard to assess how much of a win the deal will be for either side. A major discrepancy hinged on how much financial relief Iran would get immediately or in the future — a concern for Iran hawks in the US who don’t want Trump to give away too much.

The White House declined to comment even with time running out for an agreement to be signed by Sunday — Trump’s 80th birthday — as the president had promised. On Sunday, Fox News cited Trump as saying a deal would be signed in two to three hours.

At one point earlier in the day, the likelihood of a signing appeared to grow more remote after Israel’s military hit the Lebanese capital, saying it was targeting Hezbollah after the Iranian-backed group fired more projectiles into northern Israel. Iran later vowed that a response was on the way. In a subsequent social media post, Trump said that Israel should stop attacking Lebanon. 

“We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down,” Trump wrote on social media. “This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — Let’s not blow it!”

The competing drafts only exacerbated days of confusion around the prospects for a deal to end the fighting that began with US and Israeli missile attacks against Iran on February 28. That campaign has killed thousands of people, roiled the Middle East and spiked the price of oil.

Trump has said many times over the weeks of the conflict that the two sides were close to a deal. That claim was given credence this time by similar statements from Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators that a deal was near. But Iran also didn’t like the symbolism of signing the deal on Trump’s birthday.

The multiple versions have several things in common. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen quickly and Iran would get sanctions relief to sell oil. A deal would start the clock ticking on weeks of negotiations around the future of Iran’s nuclear program.

But they diverge in important ways. A version of the text seen by Bloomberg News suggests the US and “regional partners” create a program for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran with minimum funding of $300 billion, if a final deal is reached. Iran’s nuclear program will be the subject of the later talks, according to the draft.

Reuters, citing an unidentified Iranian official, reported that a draft of the MOU includes the US allowing the release of $25 billion of frozen assets. The version seen by Bloomberg contained no such stipulation.

And on Friday, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency said any final negotiations wouldn’t begin until half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted.

Reconciling the competing claims was made more difficult by the fact that the Trump administration, while talking about timing of a deal, has so far declined to give many details about what it would look like. Crucially, it’s not clear whether Iran will demand tolls from ships crossing the strait, and the various versions didn’t mention the issue.

That reflects the challenge faced by the US president — he is eager to bring the war to an end yet has been unwilling so far to agree to Iranian demands — such as sanctions relief, releasing frozen Iranian funds, and a promise not to attack again — that Iran hawks at home have argued would mark a major victory for Tehran.

A senior US official, speaking to reporters on Friday, said the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and send the US and Iran into negotiations on bigger issues around the country’s nuclear program. It would involve a sequence of steps that would see Iran receive rewards as it meets certain US demands. 

Here’s an abbreviated version of the 14 points in the latest Persian-language draft:

1. Iran and the US, along with their allies in the conflict, by signing this memorandum of understanding, declare the immediate and permanent cessation of this war on all fronts, including in Lebanon. They commit from now on not to initiate any war against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the permanent cessation of the war and the remaining provisions of this clause.
2. Iran and the US will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. Iran and the US will hold negotiations and reach a final agreement within 60 days, a timeframe which may be extended with the agreement of both parties.
4. Immediately after signing this MoU, the US will begin lifting its maritime blockade, and will bring shipping to full capacity within a maximum of 30 days. The US also commits to withdrawing its forces from the Persian Gulf region within 30 days of a final agreement.
5. Iran will immediately make arrangements to restart the transit of commercial ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa, and to return to pre-war numbers within 30 days, taking into account the necessity of removing technical obstacles and mines.
6. The US and its regional partners commit to creating a program for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran with at least $300 billion in funding. The mechanism for this program will be part of the final agreement.
7. The US agrees all types of sanctions Iran faces, including United Nations Security Council resolutions and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all US unilateral primary and secondary sanctions, will be terminated within a mutually agreed timeline as part of the final agreement.
8. Iran reiterates it will never produce nuclear weapons. Iran and the US will discuss the future of the Islamic Republic’s enrichment and its enriched-material stockpiles, as well as all other nuclear-related matters, including Iran’s nuclear needs. A framework for this, based on the outcome of the discussions, will be added to the final agreement.
9. Iran and the US will maintain the status quo until the final agreement: Iran maintains its current nuclear-program status and the US does not impose new sanctions on Iran and does not strengthen its forces in the region.
10. The US commits to issuing Treasury Department waivers for the export of Iran’s crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services — including banking transactions, insurance and transportation — immediately after the signing of this MoU, and until the termination of sanctions.
11. The US commits to releasing and making fully usable the restricted or frozen funds and assets of Iran, in accordance with the progress of negotiations toward the final agreement. These funds will be usable for payment to any final beneficiary designated by Iran’s central bank. The US commits to issuing all necessary approval and licenses for this.
12. Iran and the US will create a mechanism to monitor the implementation of the final agreement.
13. After this MoU, and after ensuring the commencement and implementation of clauses 4, 5, 10, and 11, Iran and the US will begin final-agreement negotiations, exclusively regarding the remaining clauses.
14. The final agreement will be confirmed by a binding UN Security Council resolution.

(Updates with no mention of tolling in 13th paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.