The two series for George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston include $150 million for a new catering center, along with $106 million to finance a portion of the design and construction of a ground services equipment facility. 

Though issued by the city, the debt package is secured by rent payments made by United. Both series are considered one level below investment grade, carrying a BB+ rating from S&P Global Ratings. 

In November, tough market conditions led the airline to hold off on the two issues, which were part of a larger transaction that included a $277 million refinancing that priced as scheduled. At the time, market participants said the deal would have required cheaper pricing to garner investor interest, with risk premiums spiking and tech shares under pressure. 

Today’s market environment comes with its own challenges though. The aviation industry is battling rising jet fuel costs due to conflict in the Middle East, leading many to hike prices and dial back profit forecasts. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby even proposed merging with American Airlines Group Inc., though that idea was met with a lukewarm response. 

In recent weeks, the collapse of Spirit Airlines has also rippled throughout the transportation industry, as competitors jockey for market share. 

“The muni market has definitely quieted down a little bit, but the flip side of that is that the airline space remains volatile,” said Van Eck’s Gregory Yencharis, a municipal credit analyst. 

Plus, United is still contending with a high supply environment in the muni market, which previously weighed on the proposed sale. Borrowers have sold roughly $195 billion of debt so far in 2026, up about 8% from the same time period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Delayed Deal 

The new 234,000-square-foot catering operations facility is expected to be United’s largest kitchen in its network. The facility will include advanced automation systems for tray setup, warehouse storage and cart setup, along with 50 total docks to help produce about 14,000 meals a day, according to the bond roadshow documents. United anticipates the building will cost about $159 million, with proceeds from the bond sale funding a portion of the cost and the rest financed by the airline. 

The debt will also finance the construction of a roughly 140,000 square-foot ground services equipment facility, which will “provide increased capacity to support United’s expected growth,” according to bond documents. The facility is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. 

George Bush Intercontinental Airport is United’s third largest domestic hub, with the airline and its partners accounting for about 73% of the airport’s total enplaned passengers last year. 

Representatives for United and the airport did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

The deal is expected to price on Tuesday and will be led by Bank of America as the lead underwriter, according to bond documents. A spokesperson for the bank declined to comment while the sale is active.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent crude futures advanced as much as 4.5% to $105.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $100. In a social media post, Trump said the response was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” as the two sides struggle to maintain a fragile ceasefire following a series of flareups in hostilities.

The near-closure of Hormuz since the start of the war at the end of February has choked off supplies of crude, natural gas and fuels to global customers, driving up energy prices and raising inflation fears. The International Energy Agency says the conflict is causing the biggest supply shock in history.

“Optimism over an imminent deal between the US and Iran has faded, pushing crude higher,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore. “Fears will likely grow over the potential for re-escalation once again, leaving further upside to prices.”

Tehran offered to transfer some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, but rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facilities, the Wall Street Journal reported. Iran disputed the report, according to the nation’s semi-official news agency Tasnim.

A drone strike on Sunday that briefly set a cargo vessel ablaze off Qatar in the Persian Gulf marked the latest shipping attack in the region since the ceasefire began in early April. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait said they had intercepted hostile drones.

The market will only normalize in 2027 should shipping through Hormuz remain curtailed for more than a few weeks from now, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said on Sunday. The company has redirected some oil flows through its Yanbu port on the west coast to offset lost supplies.

There has been a trickle of supply that has made it through the strait, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia successfully sneaking several tankers out, but total flows remain just a fraction of what they were before the war. Qatar also managed to get a liquefied natural gas shipment out, its first since the conflict began.

Wall Street is growing increasingly convinced that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz will remain impaired into the second half of the year. A majority of respondents to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. survey expected flows through the narrow waterway to be disrupted beyond the end of June.

In an interview on CBS’s on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the war with Iran is “not over.” He said there is more work needed to dismantle the country’s nuclear capability and to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Trump is scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping this week, and US officials said Sunday that he is expected to press the Chinese leader over the Asian nation’s approach to Iran. Revenue that China provides to Iran as well as potential weapons exports would be among topics discussed.

Over 4,000 lots of Brent’s July contract changed hands in the first five minutes, compared with an average of under 1,000 contracts in recent opening sessions. The global benchmark’s prompt spread widened, with the gap above $4 a barrel in backwardation, a bullish structure pointing to tight supply.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Crude cargoes dropped 20% year-on-year to 38.47 million tons, the lowest since July 2022, while gas fell 13% to 8.42 million tons, according to Chinese customs data on Saturday. Oil imports were also lower than the previous month, which included shipments that had already begun their journey from the Gulf before the US and Israeli air strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.  

The Middle East typically accounts for about half of China’s crude imports and nearly one-third of its liquefied natural gas. The initial batch of monthly customs figures don’t differentiate between seaborne LNG and gas delivered overland via pipelines, but ship-tracking data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that LNG purchases fell to an eight-year low in April.

Fears that oil could run short in the world’s biggest energy buyer have pushed the government to prioritize refined items such as diesel and gasoline for domestic use. As a result, oil product exports in April plunged 38% from last year to 3.12 million tons, the lowest in nearly a decade.

The disruption to gas supply has lifted demand for alternatives such as coal. However, Chinese purchases fell 13% to 33.08 million tons, the lowest since June last year, as the country leaned on its vast domestic output instead of seeking higher-priced imports.

The Persian Gulf is also a major supplier of aluminum. But China’s status as the world’s leading producer has allowed it to fill some of that gap, with exports rising 15% to 598,000 tons, the highest since November 2024. Steel exports, however, fell about 9% to 9.5 million tons, in part because of the recent emergence of the Middle East as an important buyer for Chinese mills. 

China’s copper metal imports, meanwhile, edged higher to 452,000 tons, benefiting from lower international prices in March as the war fanned concerns over global economic growth. But copper concentrate imports fell around one-fifth from last year’s record to 2.35 million tons. 

Among other metals, iron ore imports were slightly higher at nearly 104 million tons. 

Soybean imports rose nearly 40% to 8.48 million tons as US cargoes combined with seasonal flows from Brazil. Next week’s presidential summit in Beijing could deliver more pledges to buy American commodities, as well as an update on Chinese sales of rare earths to the US. In April, China’s total exports of the strategic minerals rose 11% to 5,309 tons.

On the Wire

A major Chinese metals refiner is seeing a large volume of demand for platinum to deliver against a new local futures contract, a sign of how the product is luring more of the metal into the country. 

China’s clean technology titans, hungry for export markets to boost flagging profits, aren’t letting a crisis go to waste.

The global steel industry’s green transition is threatened by continued spending on coal-based production and underinvestment in cleaner methods, according to a clean energy research group. 

President Donald Trump is expected to press President Xi Jinping over China’s approach to Iran and hammer out details on a new board of trade when they meet this week in Beijing, senior US officials said Sunday.

China’s export growth rebounded more than expected despite disruptions to shipping caused by the war in Iran, as trade volumes swell due to an investment boom in artificial intelligence.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, May 11

• China’s inflation data for April, 09:30
• China to release April aggregate finance & money supply data by May 15
• China Rare Earth earnings webcast, 15:00
• Mysteel’s China-Indonesia Coal Conference in Jakarta, day 1

Tuesday, May 12

• China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
• Mysteel’s China-Indonesia Coal Conference in Jakarta, day 2

Wednesday, May 13

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• Mysteel’s China-Indonesia Coal Conference in Jakarta, day 3

Thursday, May 14

• US President Donald Trump visits Beijing for summit with China’s Xi Jinping

Friday, May 15

• US President Donald Trump visits Beijing for summit with China’s Xi Jinping
• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30

(Updates with additional published and diary items. An earlier version corrected the spelling of Beijing in the ninth paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

According to its Gas Market Report for Q2 2026, the loss of nearly 20% of the world’s LNG supply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is “distorting short-term gas market fundamentals,” while damage from attacks on Middle East LNG liquefaction facilities is altering the medium-term outlook.

Tighter market conditions for longer

Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility has been offline since early March 2026, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 2 bcm of gas supply. The IEA said Iranian attacks have taken out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

Global LNG production fell by 8% (4 bcm) year-on-year in March. Loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by 9.5 bcm compared to last year, although the decline was partly offset by higher LNG output from new projects in North America and Africa.

The IEA also warned that the conflict could delay much of the new capacity that was expected to come online later this decade.

IEA analyst Gergely Molnár told the Budapest LNG Summit last week that the war was reshaping the medium-term gas outlook. It had been anticipated that a major influx of new LNG capacity from the US, Canada, and Qatar would loosen market tightness, but geopolitical tensions mean tighter market conditions could persist longer than previously expected, through to 2030.

The IEA quarterly report suggested global demand growth is expected to rise by approximately 2% in 2026. However, this is heavily affected by demand-side adjustments and high prices.

US boosts supply to Asia

US producers helped to offset reduced supplies ‌from the Middle East at a time when the IEA projected North American demand remaining largely flat.

Asia absorbed nearly a quarter of all US LNG exports in April — a sharp increase since the Iran conflict started on 28 February — according to preliminary ship-tracking data from financial firm LSEG. It showed shipments to Asia rose more than 175%, from about 970,000 metric tonnes in February to 1.99 MT in March and 2.71 MT in April.

The IEA said demand in the Asia-Pacific region was expected to increase by 4%, driven by emerging markets, but constrained by high prices.

The Gas Market Report said continued renewable energy expansion in Europe was expected to reduce gas demand by 2%, despite the volatility.

Pressure will remain

Molnár said EU gas storage levels are about 30% below the five-year average, and refilling them to the 90% full target ahead of the high-usage winter season would require an additional 10 bcm of gas.

The IEA said gas producers were making efforts to increase supply, but the demand side is set to play a key role in balancing the market, particularly in Asia, where fuel switching is picking up alongside energy-saving measures.

“The current energy crisis highlights the need to further strengthen the architecture of global gas supply security,” added the report.

The countries are expected to offer demining, escorting and air policing capabilities as part of a defensive naval mission led by the UK and France, designed to reassure commercial ships attempting to pass through the waterway.

“We are turning diplomatic agreement into practical military plans to restore confidence for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” said UK Defence Secretary John Healey, who will co-chair Monday’s gathering alongside his French counterpart Catherine Vautrin.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister responded that any such plans would be considered an escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran and would be met with a military response.

“Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of ‘protecting shipping’ is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on X. 

Iran’s response would be “decisive and immediate,” he said. 

Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows, after war erupted with US-Israel strikes on Feb. 28. The US has since imposed a naval blockade. The disruption has upended oil and gas markets, sending fuel prices soaring and putting pressure on consumers worldwide. 

The UK will deploy one of its warships — the HMS Dragon, capable of destroying guided missiles — as part of the mission, which will only begin once a sustained ceasefire or peace deal is agreed to.  

US President Donald Trump has previously criticized Britain and other NATO nations for their reluctance to commit naval forces to help open the Strait of Hormuz. He also called out the UK for offering to send aircraft carriers much later than he said the US needed them, mocking the ships as “toys.”

(Updates with Iranian response beginning in fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Al Kharaitiyat, which loaded at the Ras Laffan export plant earlier this month, exited the strait and was in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The vessel, which lists Pakistan as its next destination, appears to have navigated the Tehran-approved northern route that hugs the Iranian coast through the strait, the data showed.

The shipment is part of Pakistan’s negotiations with Iran for additional Qatari LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz to help meet urgent demand, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. A Pakistani tanker delivered a diesel shipment from Kuwait in recent days, after turning back multiple times previously.   

Pakistan, which is mediating between the US and Iran in the conflict, is struggling with a gas shortfall and battling widespread blackouts as shipments from its primary provider Qatar dried up with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has tightened its grip on the vital waterway since the war began at the end of February and vessels have continued to face security threats around the region.

The Pakistan government’s petroleum division spokesperson Zafar Abbas didn’t respond to a request for comment about the LNG shipments. Neither did Iran’s foreign ministry.

Three tankers laden with Qatari LNG that are currently in the Persian Gulf are signaling Pakistan as their destination. While these and the Al Kharaitiyat’s journey might offer tentative signs that more LNG flows could resume, it’s a far cry from prewar levels of roughly three shipments a day out of the Persian Gulf. At least two LNG tankers that loaded from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s export plant have traversed the strait since the conflict began, Bloomberg reported earlier this week.

Qatar had made several previous attempts to send shipments through Hormuz, but the tankers had eventually turned around. The country, which produced almost a fifth of global LNG supply last year, hasn’t been able to move LNG out of the Persian Gulf in the war that’s now in its third month.

Qatar’s Nakilat owns the Al Kharaitiyat, according to ship database Equasis. Nakilat and QatarEnergy did not respond to a request for comment.

(Updates with context from the fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Al Kharaitiyat, which loaded at the Ras Laffan export plant earlier this month, exited the strait and is in the Gulf of Oman, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The vessel lists Pakistan as its next destination, according to the data.

The ship appears to have navigated the Tehran-approved northern route that hugs the Iranian coast through the strait, the data showed.

The effective closure of the waterway has choked off global LNG supplies, sending prices higher and causing shortages across Asia. Vessels continue to face security threats as both Iran and the US have implemented de facto blockades.

While the Al Kharaitiyat’s journey offers tentative signs that more LNG flows could resume, it’s a far cry from prewar levels of roughly three shipments a day out of the Persian Gulf. At least two LNG tankers that loaded from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s export plant have traversed the strait since the conflict began, Bloomberg reported earlier this week.

The move comes after Qatar made several previous attempts to send shipments through Hormuz, but eventually the tankers turned around. The country, which produced almost a fifth of global LNG supply last year, hasn’t been able to move any LNG out of the Persian Gulf since the conflict began at the end of February.

Qatar’s Nakilat owns the Al Kharaitiyat, according to ship database Equasis. Nakilat and QatarEnergy did not respond to a request for comment.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The firm is exporting 1 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil this month, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. This would be GE Warren’s first purchase since the US eased strict sanctions that stunted the flow of Venezuelan oil for the past seven years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Vero Beach, Florida-based GE Warren declined to comment. Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the supplier of the oil, didn’t immediately return a message seeking comment.

GE Warren is among the few traders to have successfully secured oil purchases from PDVSA, as Venezuela’s state oil company is known, since Maduro’s capture by US forces in January. 

Until now, trading has been largely dominated by Trafigura and Vitol, the commodity giants initially tapped by the Trump administration to help sell Venezuela’s oil. The US eased oil trading restrictions in February, but competitors are still struggling to clinch deals. 

GE Warren’s return to Venezuela, where it used to be active in the fuels market, comes as oil exports from the South American nation ramp up. In April, they rose to a seven-year high of nearly 1.2 million barrels a day, according to shipping reports and vessel movements. 

GE Warren’s oil completed loading onto the tanker Poliegos on Friday. It’s destination is listed as Singapore, but it could ultimately head somewhere else as the data is preliminary. 

Trading crude oil is a small part of the company’s business, mostly focused on refined products that are sold domestically and also exported out of main US hubs, including New York harbor and the US Gulf Coast. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Venezuela announced emergency measures to stabilize its power grid after electricity consumption hit a nine-year high this week, reviving memories of blackouts and rationing that once crippled the economy.

The Electricity Ministry didn’t detail the measures, but urged the private sector to conserve power and reiterated a ban on energy-intensive crypto mining. It said rising temperatures and increased economic activity were fueling excessive consumption, which it said reached more than 15,500 megawatts on Thursday.

The renewed strain on the power system threatens to complicate the government’s push to revitalize the oil, mining and industrial sectors after years of underinvestment in its hydroelectric dams and transmission lines. 

Much of the country is already subject to rolling blackouts, especially outside the capital Caracas. In the western oil-producing state of Zulia for example, residents face outages lasting six hours a day or more.

“We are working hard to recover and stabilize the system. We all need to cooperate,” Electricity Minister Rolando Alcalá said on state TV on Thursday. “The national electrical system is the engine, the core factor, for all development activities in a country.”

Recurring ads on state TV use animated characters to ask Venezuelans to unplug home appliances when not in use. 

The measures recall the worst of Venezuela’s crisis in 2019, when a massive blackout darkened the country for nearly a week, paralyzing hospitals and airports. Outages remain common, with factories outside Caracas frequently disrupted by sudden voltage drops and extended cuts causing some to ask staff to work overnight.

The latest warnings cloud investment plans announced since Nicolás Maduro’s ouster in January, including efforts by acting President Delcy Rodríguez to open Venezuela’s oil industry to foreign operators and revive crude production.

Venezuela’s government blamed lingering US sanctions for worsening strains on the power grid, which it says has restricted access to financing and spare parts needed to maintain and upgrade the country’s aging electricity infrastructure.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The number of cargo trains going from Xi’an in central China to the Iranian capital Tehran has risen from around one per week before the conflict to one every three or four days since the start of blockade on April 13, according to people with knowledge of the shipments.

Freight costs have surged, with quotes for shipping a standard 40-foot container along the route as high as $7,000 this week, roughly 40% more than typical levels, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity as they aren’t authorized to speak with the media.

The route, which runs through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can only go a small way toward making up for the US blockade.

The naval operation began around three weeks ago. It’s preventing Tehran from exporting most its oil and importing vital grain supplies. There are already signs of strain on the Iranian economy, with the rial slumping.

The rail route also adds to Iran’s reliance on the world’s biggest manufacturing nation, with Beijing buying almost all Iran’s oil. 

For now the trade is mostly one-way, with containers headed for Iran with industrial and consumer goods, including automotive parts, generators and electronics, the people said. Iranian officials have said they are considering using rail routes to export products like petrochemicals and fuel at some stage.

“Previously these trains never ran at all in some weeks; now they’re fully booked for May,” said Altan Dursun, managing director of Turkey-based Silkroad-Avrasya Multimodal Logistics, a rail-freight booking agency that specializes in trade with China.

Plans are underway to add further capacity in June, Dursun added. Each train from Xi’an carries around 50 standard 40-foot containers, he said, while a long-haul container ship can hold thousands.

Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, the country’s state owned rail operator, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Since the war erupted in late February with US and Israeli attacks on Iran, China has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and denied it’s sent arms to its besieged partner.

Beijing has stepped up diplomacy in recent days, ahead of a crucial meeting next week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

China hosted Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and called for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as possible.” A day later, US Republican Senator Steve Daines thanked China for working to end the war.

Extensive financial and trade ties with other Persian Gulf states have left Beijing trying to balance commitments in a region where it’s amassed about $270 billion worth of investments and construction projects over the past two decades.

The China route is one node in a broader years-long effort by Tehran to expand logistics corridors with allies and insulate itself from western pressure.

In October, Iran started exporting diesel by train, for the first time, to Afghanistan using the 225 kilometer (140 mile) Khaf-Herat rail line that connects Iran’s northeastern Khorasan-e Razavi province to Herat, state media reported. 

In February last year, China inaugurated a direct freight train route to Hairatan in northern Afghanistan, Xinhua reported, and months later Uzbekistan and Afghanistan announced plans to extend the rail line to Herat, which is about 130 kilometers from the Iranian border.

State-run Press TV described the Xi’an link as a “vital just-in-case solution to keep bilateral trade from the tentacles of US hegemony,” in a report marking its operation last year.

Besides the China line, Iran has committed to spending billions of dollars on a north-south route connecting it to Russia.

Iran can transfer 40% of its usual maritime trade to land routes, the head of the national shipping association’s container committee, Kambiz Etemadi, said last week, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

Demand for trucks from Turkey has also increased since the start of the blockade, one Istanbul freight firm said, adding that most of the new cargoes were carrying food and sunflower oil.

Iran’s ambassador to neighboring Pakistan met with the country’s minister for railways on Thursday to discuss projects to increase freight volumes, the ministry said on X.

With Iran’s sea ports largely cut off, any alternative import routes are welcome as Tehran tries to keep the economy moving and minimize supply shortages that are pushing up inflation. A rapid depreciation in the currency sparked deadly protests against the Islamic Republic in January, and the rial has since weakened to fresh record lows against the dollar.

President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized traders for “profiteering and hoarding” on Wednesday, vowing “serious action against any violations that disrupt societal peace.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent rose as much as 2.9% toward $103 a barrel before paring gains, while West Texas Intermediate was near $96. US forces struck military targets in Iran after the country fired on three Navy destroyers sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command said. Still, the command added that it “does not seek escalation,” although it remained ready to protect American forces.

President Donald Trump said the three warships had successfully exited the waterway, and were undamaged following the attacks, according to a social-media post. On Iran, he added: “We’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!”

The oil market’s focus remains on the strait, which has been effectively closed since the war began at the end of February. That’s triggered an unprecedented supply shock, with flows of crude choked off and wells across the region shut in. The waterway faces a double blockade, with Tehran obstructing traffic, while US prevents ships calling at or leaving Iranian ports.

“Oil is trading between two risks: diplomacy on one side and another escalation on the other,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “Markets are still giving the peace proposal a chance, but not enough of a chance to take the war premium out.”

The latest clashes heighten tensions across the region, as the US tries to exit the war that’s imposed an increasing burden on consumers as retail gasoline and diesel prices spike. This week, the Trump administration has been waiting for Tehran to respond to its proposal to reopen the trade route, with Iran’s leaders yet to indicate whether they’ll accept the terms.

Trump told reporters late Thursday that the ceasefire with Iran was still in effect, despite the back-and-forth. He added there was no need for curbs on US crude or jet fuel exports, saying: “We have tremendous amounts of oil.”

In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates said on Friday air-defense systems were intercepting missiles and drones, according to a post on X. The UAE sits across the strait from Iran, and has been targeted often during the conflict, including a strike earlier this week in the port city of Fujairah.

The head of the International Energy Agency warned the world was losing 14 million barrels of oil a day because of the war, and ramping up production after the conflict would be gradual. Fatih Birol also reiterated during a visit to Canada on Thursday that the Paris-based IEA was prepared to take further action after members agreed in March to release 400 million barrels.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said the outcome of the US-Iran conflict can be defined in “almost black-and-white terms of who will control the Strait of Hormuz,” according to comments to a New York Times podcast.

For the week, Brent remains more than 6% lower even after Friday’s gain.

The crude market’s price “reaction being relatively contained tells us that the market still sees this as manageable for now,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital LP in Chicago. “Earlier in the conflict, every escalation triggered a pretty major repricing.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Iran’s assault on three US warships involved “multiple missiles, drones and small boats,” according to a US Central Command statement on Thursday, which added that “no US assets were struck.” 

American forces responded by eliminating “inbound threats” and targeting Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations and intelligence facilities that were deemed “responsible for attacking US forces,” it said.

The latest clash heightens tensions in the region as the US attempts to exit a war now in its third month. The Trump administration has been waiting for Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the strait and end the conflict, which has killed thousands of people and triggered a global energy crisis.

“Just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” President Donald Trump said in a social media post. 

Iran’s leaders haven’t indicated whether they will accept the terms of the offer, though they have shown little sign of yielding on their nuclear program or accepting a moratorium on enriching uranium — both top US demands.

Trump later told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect despite the back-and-forth, downplaying Iran’s actions while warning of consequences if an agreement wasn’t struck.

“They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump said in a brief appearance in Washington at the reflecting pool on the National Mall. “I’ll let you know when there’s no ceasefire,” he added. “You’re not going to have to know, you’ll just have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.”

Asian stocks pulled back from a record high as the escalating tensions revived concerns over energy supplies. Oil jumped, with Brent climbing as much as 2.5% toward $103 a barrel, snapping a three-day drop.

Even so, the president told reporters in Washington late Thursday that a deal was still possible.

In a bid to ease the crisis, the US president had announced “Project Freedom,” an initiative to help ships transit the strait, before abruptly suspending it. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the US military’s ability to use regional bases, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, a move that could allow the Trump administration to restart the effort to ease traffic through the strait.

A Central Command official referred questions about the reporting on the bases to the Saudi and Kuwaiti governments. Asked whether Project Freedom would be restarted, the official declined to speculate. The Kuwaiti and Saudi embassies did not respond to requests for comment.

Here’s more related to the war:

• United Arab Emirates air defenses responded to missile and drone attacks from Iran, the UAE Ministry of Defense said in a post on X.
• Washington relayed a one-page memo to the Islamic Republic that could reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade, according to the person familiar with the matter. That would set the stage for a month of talks aimed at securing a final agreement to bring the 10-week conflict to a close.
• Iran is expected to send a response via Pakistan, acting as a mediator, in the next two days, a person familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
• Iran’s state-affiliated news agency ISNA said reports on elements of the proposal amount to “media speculation and atmosphere-building,” adding that nuclear enrichment is not part of the current discussions.
• Gasoline prices breached $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022, according to the American Automobile Association. This adds pressure on Trump, six months from midterm elections in which energy costs will be a central focus.
• Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping May 14-15 in Beijing. The summit already has been rescheduled once because of the war. There is unease among Chinese officials about holding the high-stakes meeting before the war in Iran is resolved, people familiar with the matter said.
• Trump is due to deliver remarks Friday, the White House said, without providing details about the topic.
• Israel said it killed a Hezbollah commander in a southern suburb of Beirut, its first strike on the city since a ceasefire began in Lebanon last month.

(Updates with bullet points on UAE air defenses, Trump comments.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The state-run CPC Corp. has started planning winter gas procurement to avoid interruptions to domestic supply, according to a statement from the Ministry of Economic Affairs on Friday. There have been no shortages of electricity or oil since the war in Iran started at the end of February, it said. 

The island currently imports around 96% of its energy, with liquefied natural gas accounting for roughly half its overall power generation. Unlike coal or oil, the gas is difficult to store, and Taiwan maintains just an 11-day reserve, which will be raised to 14 days from 2027. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least two tankers that loaded at Adnoc’s Das Island facility recently went dark to carry shipments out of Hormuz, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of vessel-tracking data and people with knowledge of the matter. Satellite imagery shows ships continuing to dock at the terminal, even as no tankers broadcast positions near the plant.

Three other empty Adnoc LNG carriers also stopped transmitting signals after reaching the eastern entrance of the strait, ship data show. These vessels are also masking their movements to head into the Gulf via Hormuz to load cargoes, said one of the people, who asked not to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak with the media. 

Hormuz has remained virtually shut as the US and Iran struggle to reach a peace agreement, with both sides enforcing a de facto blockade on a waterway that normally handles about a fifth of global LNG supply. Vessels continue to face security threats, including Iranian drone attacks earlier this week on an Adnoc-linked oil tanker near Oman.

Adnoc didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Gas flows have been upended even more than crude oil by the closure. So far, at least two loaded LNG tankers linked to Adnoc have been identified exiting the Gulf since the end of February. While that offers tentative signs that more flows could resume, it remains a far cry from pre-war levels of roughly three shipments a day.

Adnoc’s move underscores how producers are resorting to riskier strategies to push fuel out of the region with the conflict now in its third month, with no clear timeline for a full resumption of shipping through Hormuz. The approach has allowed Adnoc to maintain limited LNG production at its export plant.

That contrasts with neighboring Qatar, which hasn’t shipped any LNG through the waterway since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February led to the strait’s closure. Qatar was forced to shut its massive Ras Laffan LNG export facility in March after attacks by Iran, and declared force majeure on scheduled shipments to its customers.

“Adnoc hasn’t declared force majeure, unlike QatarEnergy,” said Antonia Syn, a gas and LNG research analyst at Rystad Energy. Invoking the clause “formally reduces commercial pressure to attempt risky transits, and Adnoc appears determined to avoid fully conceding that gulf LNG is stranded,” she said.

The ships that Adnoc is currently using to export LNG through Hormuz are also older, and are of the same generation of sister tankers sent to the scrapyard last year, according to Syn. “Running the gauntlet on near-scrap steamships is probably a more palatable call than it sounds.” 

LNG shipowners and operators are among the shipping industry’s most risk-averse, and sailing through Hormuz without transmitting signals marks a sharp break from past practice. For example, nearly all LNG carriers have avoided the Red Sea since Houthi rebel attacks escalated in 2023.

The Mraweh tanker, which is owned by Adnoc, was seen loaded with a cargo near northern Indonesia on Wednesday, with Japan listed as its next destination, after not transmitting a location for over two weeks, shipping data shows. The vessel was previously spotted empty on April 19, idling near the eastern entrance of Hormuz.

The Mubaraz — which loaded a cargo from Das Island in early March — also stopped sending a signal in late-March before reappearing nearly a month later crossing the southern tip of India.

(Updates with analyst comments in the ninth and tenth paragraphs.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Mexico is planning to invest 140 billion pesos ($8.1 billion) in new gas pipelines over the next four years, the latest step in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s plan to boost the country’s power generation.

State utility Comision Federal de Electricidad, or CFE, and pipeline network operator Cenagas will contribute, Energy Minister Luz Elena Gonzalez said in a media briefing on Thursday. CFE will build nine new pipelines, while Cenagas will construct three, and will also invest in repair and maintenance of existing infrastructure, she said.

Most of the planned pipelines are designed to strengthen Mexico’s quickly growing domestic network, while one project, the Naco-Hermosillo-Guaymas pipeline will boost its capacity for importing gas from the US network.

CFE is also planning to tender for two new gas-fueled power plants in the coming months. Seven plants are already being built, while four others have been tendered and are awaiting construction, Gonzalez said.

The planned pipeline build-out is part of a larger effort to meet Mexico’s growing demand for electricity, which is expected to surge by as much as 65 gigawatts by 2030. Sheinbaum has promised to invest a total of $23.4 billion over the course of her term to bolster the grid, which regularly suffers from seasonal blackouts.

Mexico is aiming to add 6 gigawatts of power generation capacity this year, and recently published new rules governing how private partners can sell electricity to the national grid.

Sheinbaum also wants state driller Petroleos Mexicanos to produce more gas domestically to ease the country’s longstanding dependence on US supplies, including plans to boost fracking. More than 60% of Mexico’s energy generation is powered by natural gas, and around 70% of that gas is imported from the US.

Mexico is also considering exporting gas to Guatemala, Sheinbaum said at the same briefing.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The coalition on compliance carbon pricing — chaired by the EU, China and Brazil, which championed the idea at the COP30 climate summit in November — was launched in the Italian city of Florence on Thursday. Environmentalists and economists have long advocated carbon pricing as a tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and tackling global warming.

The initiative comes as the US rolls back climate policies and prioritizes fossil fuel expansion. President Donald Trump has pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement, while seeking to stymie the nascent offshore wind industry. Last October, his administration blocked the adoption of a landmark charge on shipping industry emissions, calling them a “global carbon tax” on Americans.

The coalition aims to more closely harmonize carbon pricing practices across the world.

We need “to make sure that these emissions trading systems talk to each other so that it becomes much easier for trading these carbon credits and that also companies are facilitated in working in different jurisdictions,” said Kurt Vandenberghe, director general for climate at the European Commission.

The new coalition is also set to include the UK, Canada, France, Turkey, New Zealand and Germany, while sub-national jurisdictions, such as California and Quebec, can join as observers. 

“We still believe that in the US, lots of local governments, states, companies and organizations are committed to efforts to adjust climate change and we would like to work together with them,” said Li Gao, China’s deputy minister of ecology and environment. “This coalition is very important.”

China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, pledged last year to cut emissions by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035 and plans a sixfold expansion of cumulative solar and wind capacity. Its carbon market is slated to transition from an intensity-based system to an absolute cap and expand coverage to sectors including petrochemicals and aviation.

The EU is home to the world’s most stringent emissions market covering more than 10,000 facilities in sectors from steel to cement and paper. It’s also implemented a carbon border levy on imports of certain products. Brazil is expected to fully launch a national carbon market early next decade.

The coalition will help build trust in carbon markets and promote innovation and investment, according to Cristina Froes de Borja Reis, Brazil’s extraordinary secretary for the carbon market. 

It will work to make measuring and reporting emissions more transparent, but also aims to help countries access a United Nations-supervised carbon credits market, created under Article 6 of the landmark Paris Agreement.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

PJM Interconnection LLC, the largest US grid operator, is making Maryland customers cover the costs for transmission projects driven primarily by energy needs of data centers outside the state, Maryland’s Office of People’s Counsel alleged in a complaint to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Homeowners are effectively subsidizing data-center growth due to the way PJM allocates costs to build those projects, said the agency that represents the interests of Maryland’s utility customers.

“Without FERC action, Maryland customers face paying billions for transmission infrastructure that PJM is advancing to benefit data centers,” People’s Counsel David Lapp said. “Maryland customers have neither caused the need for these billions in new transmission projects nor will they meaningfully benefit from them.”

A spokesperson for PJM didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

PJM, which serves 67 million people across 13 states, is facing a barrage of criticism from customers over skyrocketing bills amid a boom in AI data centers, while utilities have complained about the slow pace of matching supply with growing electricity demand. Rates have risen more than 50% in Maryland in the past five years, according to a US Chamber of Commerce report released on Tuesday.

The People’s Counsel argued that Maryland’s residential users will be on the hook to help fund PJM’s infrastructure build-out even though data center demand is beyond the state borders, with those customers bearing responsibility for $2 billion in capital expenditures.

The state agency asked the energy regulator to require PJM to take immediate action to assign data center-driven transmission costs to areas where the data center customers are located. Alternatively, the agency argues that — depending on its rule-making process for large power users — FERC should directly charge the transmission costs to the large data center customers.

The complaint comes within the same week that American Electric Power Co., one of the largest US utilities, said it was considering removing itself from PJM’s grid because it’s too slow in connecting new data centers to the operator’s network. That followed last year’s threat by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who said that his state would leave PJM if it didn’t make changes to rein in soaring power prices. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

A joint venture of his company Synthos and state-controlled Orlen SA sees the first small modular reactor coming online in late 2030, he said at Bloomberg’s Future of Finance conference in the Polish capital Warsaw. 

That’s much earlier than the government’s plan for the country’s first large nuclear plant, which is scheduled to start operations in 2036.

Although his project is private, Solowow anticipates government support for the investment, saying that there’s no room in the budget to support construction of another plant. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s cabinet has already committed 60 billion zloty ($16.7 billion) to the large nuclear power facility.

The authorities “really want to have small modular reactors because we can’t afford to build the second nuclear plant,” said Solowow on Thursday.

Solowow, 63, has long called for his country to cut energy prices in order to attract investments. He’s blamed elevated taxes, including carbon allowance permits, and aging power plants for recently propelling electricity costs for the country’s businesses to some of the highest in the world. 

The businessman has a portfolio of investments from chemicals and energy to ceramic tiles in several European countries, including the Netherlands and France. Now, he wants to bring cheaper and clean energy to Poland by building small-scale nuclear reactors to replace aging coal-fired plants.

Solowow partnered with GE Vernova Inc. in its BWRX-300 reactor project and plans to build at least 26 such units in Poland through his joint venture with Orlen.

He also estimated that Poland could save €310 billion ($365 billion) to €370 billion over 60 years by betting on SMRs while cutting some plans for green energy.

“By making a small adjustment in the energy mix we could save huge money,” he said on Thursday.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

So far, it’s looking even worse than feared. 

Freedom Forever LLC, one of the nation’s largest solar installers, filed for bankruptcy last month, citing the phase out of federal tax credits and Trump’s executive orders aimed at curtailing the growth of renewables. Big national players in home energy including Tesla Inc., Enphase Energy Inc., SolarEdge Technologies Inc. and Sunrun Inc. have reported soft sales in the first quarter, adding to analyst concerns the rooftop market would contract as much as 30% this year.

“It’s a zero-growth sector,” said Joe Osha, a clean energy analyst for Guggenheim Securities who recently dropped his coverage of Sunrun, the nation’s biggest home solar company. 

The industry is shrinking even as utility bills surge across the country. Residential solar companies have long marketed higher power bills as a reason to install their panels for cheaper power and increased energy independence.

The headwinds facing the industry have been building over the last several years. Higher interest rates made it more expensive to borrow to pay for solar systems, which can cost $20,000 or more for homeowners. Tariffs on solar imports from Southeast Asia have raised the costs of equipment and squeezed margins. And California, the biggest home solar market, dialed back state incentives for new solar-only systems starting in 2023.

Against this backdrop, Sunrun’s main national rivals – SunPower Corp. and Sunnova Energy International Inc. – filed for bankruptcy in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

The Trump administration’s law may be the industry’s biggest hurdle yet. Along with ending a homeowner solar tax credit at the end of last year, it also imposed a rapid phaseout of a federal subsidy that can be claimed by companies that lease residential solar systems. New anti-China restrictions on those credits have also made some longtime bank participants hesitant, draining a key source of capital for the sector.

“The market is naturally going through a big disruption,” Enphase Chief Executive Officer Badri Kothandaraman said in an interview. “Residential solar is in the process of being rebuilt, which is happening right now.”

Prospects for the industry aren’t expected to improve soon. Ohm Analytics, which tracks the residential solar market, forecasts second quarter solar interconnections to be down by more than a quarter compared to the same period a year ago, according to Chief Executive Officer Chris Collins.

“Some of the data we are seeing now indicate second quarter numbers coming in slightly softer than expectation,” Collins said. His firm expects the market to decline 22% for the full year.

The glum news has residential solar stocks largely reversing their gains since January. Enphase shares have slid nearly 30% since hitting a year-to-date high in early February. Sunrun has dropped close to 40% since reporting fourth-quarter earnings in late February. SolarEdge Technologies has bucked the trend, climbing about 40% so far this year in part on hopes for increased sales in Europe, where power prices have jumped from the war in Iran. 

There is some hope for a way through the slump in demand. Executives with residential solar companies view battery storage technology, which has seen a sharp drop in costs, as providing a potential avenue for growth as well as offer some bill relief for consumers. Batteries can also qualify for tax credits through 2033.

Power rates in California now reward homeowners for storing solar in batteries during the day when energy is cheap so it can be used in the evening when grid power becomes expensive. Approximately 90% of solar panels sold in the state now come with a battery, according to Ohm Analytics. 

“Long term, if electricity prices continue to rise, solar and batteries will make more and more financial sense,” SolarEdge Chief Executive Officer Shuki Nir said.

States and utilities are also looking for ways to encourage and reward homeonwers for installing batteries with solar panels. Texas, California and New York are among the states that have established or are developing policies that reward consumers for participating in programs that can tap into a network of batteries, solar panels and smart home devices to form a distributed power plant.

Sunrun, which says it has created the nation’s biggest home battery network, sees the industry turmoil as an opportunity for the company to gain market share this year.

“We believe that the market dislocations occurring around us present opportunities for us to extend our lead and accelerate profitable, high-quality growth,” Sunrun Chief Executive Officer Mary Powell said Wednesday during the company’s first-quarter earnings call. 

In the meantime, the industry will likely have to navigate more turbulence, SolarEdge’s Nir said. “Short term, there is going to be some hiccups, but in the long term we see the demand is there and is going to be served.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Earnings before interest and taxes fell 15% to €3.52 billion ($4.14 billion) from a year earlier, the French utility said Thursday.

Engie is seeking to offset its exposure to French gas assets and capitalize on an expected surge in electricity demand by investing in wind, solar and battery storage worldwide. The company just completed its acquisition of a UK power-distribution network — almost two months ahead of schedule — underscoring its efforts to retreat more broadly from fossil fuels.

The utility has also been cutting costs to help counter a loss of earnings from Belgium, where three of its five reactors in the country were closed last year. Engie is now in talks to sell its entire Belgian nuclear business to the state to eliminate risks related to energy policy changes and focus on assets with more predictable income and expenses.

“The idea of both parties is that it should have a neutral finance impact,” Chief Financial Officer Pierre-Francois Riolacci said on a conference call Thursday. Given that the two reactors still in operation are due to be frequently halted for lifetime extension works in coming years, a sale to the Belgian government “wouldn’t change anything in our numbers going forward,” he said.

The shares of the company traded 1.5% lower at 12:27 p.m. in Paris, paring this year’s gain to 21%. 

Excluding its nuclear activities, quarterly Ebit declined 8.4%, the firm said in a statement. Engie stuck to its full-year profit forecast, citing the expansion of its renewables division and lower costs across the group. 

It also announced an agreement to sell stakes in gas-fired power plants in Qatar, following similar deals in the region last year.

The company may sell as much as €1.5 billion of assets this year to reduce its debt following the acquisition of UK Power Networks for about €19 billion including debt, Riolacci said. Divestment should pick up next year, with Engie selling stakes in businesses that it has little control over, and minority interests in some of the group’s “highly” capital intensive assets. Businesses up for sale should be little impacted by the Persian Gulf war, he said.

Despite the continuing war in the Middle East, the company said its gas customers haven’t seen any disruption to supply because it gets the fuel from a wide range of sources.

Engie is also sticking with plans to develop renewable-energy projects in the region, where tenders and construction are continuing, Riolacci said. 

In the US, where the Trump administration has moved to halt or slow renewable energy developments, the CFO said it’s “difficult” to get permits for onshore wind, while solar and battery-storage projects are growing amid “very strong” demand.

(Updates with CFO comments on Belgian nuclear talks, asset sales.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Just before midnight, two men in white coveralls and black gloves scale an electric fence at a solar farm in Chile’s Atacama Desert, then slip soundlessly into rows of sleek panels. Others use a poultry shear and electric angle grinder to breach the main gate. Three pickups without license plates pull in so the gang can load up their loot and race away.

The thieves typically have less than an hour before police arrive to disable cameras, slice cables and extract dozens of panels before vanishing into the dunes. In this case, there was only one security guard, who was instructed to hide in case of an intrusion. They tied him up anyway.

Chile is witnessing a surge in theft on solar farms. Many in the industry privately confirm they’ve been hit, yet few are willing to say so publicly as the stolen equipment slips into black markets.

In this narrow strip of the Andes, exceptionally sunny conditions, market-based electricity pricing and a favorable investment climate have fueled a swift photovoltaic build-out, from just 3% of total installed capacity in 2015 to a third of the system today, according to government data. Following a pattern in other places like California and the UK, this solar boom has brought crime along with it. But here the trend is turbocharged by more remote expanses and entrenched organized crime, posing risks for Chile’s critical infrastructure, with potential consequences for grid reliability and foreign investment.

“The theft of cables, panels or electronic equipment can temporarily shut down entire solar parks and cause significant economic losses,” said Erwin Plett, chief executive officer of renewable energy advisory Low Carbon Chile SpA, adding that it also drives up security and insurance costs. “Chile remains one of the most attractive renewable markets in the region, but maintaining that leadership requires ensuring the security of energy infrastructure.”

Five years ago, panel theft was rare, according to a service delivery manager who oversees more than 60 parks in Chile and wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. Since March last year, the manager’s portfolio recorded more than 30 thefts. In one case, a single site was hit five times in less than a month.

Fernando Navarro, project manager at Tritec-Intervento, the Chilean unit of a European solar energy company, says theft has become increasingly organized over his six years in the industry. At first incidents were minor — one or two panels disappearing over an eight-month construction period. Losses have since evolved into coordinated raids, with trucks hauling away four or five boxes at a time, with each box holding at least 30 panels.

The fragile panels weigh about 30 kilograms (66 pounds) and usually cost $60 to $70 apiece, and perpetrators know what to shut off and which components to target while avoiding safety risks to remove them, Navarro said. Often they dismantle the complex equipment to extract copper and make off with batteries, fencing and control systems too.

“The profile of these criminal groups committing these robberies is that they understand the utility of the equipment,” said Ana Lía Rojas, executive director of Chile’s Association of Renewable Energy and Storage, or Acera. “And there is a market willing to buy it in order to use it in ways different from what it was originally developed, purchased and installed for. That’s a major concern for us.”

Cables are the most frequently stolen components, accounting for 85.7% of cases, followed by PV panels at 54.8%, according to data from Chile’s Solar Energy Association, or Acesol.

Chile is hardly alone. “The rapid growth of solar energy, combined with the high value density of modules and the difficulty of tracking equipment without standardized identification, creates ideal conditions for theft in any country,” said Felipe Javier Ríos Ledesma, researcher at the Solar Energy Institute at the Polytechnic University of Madrid. “However, Chile has local conditions that make it particularly vulnerable.”

Opaque Channels

Benjamin Sovacool, a professor of earth and environment at Boston University and the University of Sussex, has studied solar panel theft around the world. He estimates that around 20% of stolen panels are damaged during removal or transit, reflecting the fragility of glass-based systems and components such as inverters and batteries. Of the remainder, about 30% is resold in domestic markets and roughly half ends up in international markets, he said, based on a pattern he studied in Indonesia.

In Chile’s case, far-flung sites and vast footprints make solar farms difficult to secure, while dormancy in the desert’s dark night gives thieves a clear window to operate. Sprawling sites may have only one or two unarmed guards.

More importantly, the country’s porous borders can invite contraband. Remotely located solar farms “are often very close to borders and to unauthorized or uncontrolled crossings,” Rojas said. “So it’s easy to move the equipment to neighboring countries like Peru, Bolivia and Argentina.”

Copper in particular can be aggregated and ferried through the value chain for export, making its final destination difficult to trace at a time of buoyant prices for the red metal. In April, Chilean authorities dismantled an organized criminal network that had moved more than $900 million worth of stolen copper between 2020 and 2025, trucking it to the northern port of Iquique before shipping it to China. 

Navarro says projects are particularly vulnerable in early phases when uninstalled materials are stored in boxes or on pallets, security systems are not yet fully operational, and there is constant movement of workers and subcontractors.

As the crime flourishes, investors are increasingly incorporating theft and vandalism into their risk assessments, raising insurance, security and overall project costs, said Plett. 

“So far, they have not slowed investment, but they do constitute a warning sign that the country must address urgently,” he said. 

Sense of Impunity

Before dawn on Feb. 24, thieves broke into the Eléctrica Altos de Til Til solar farm north of Santiago, stealing copper wiring in what general manager Andrés Guerrero describes as the third incident since late September. The farm, which was designed mainly to supply the nearby San Pedro mineral processing plant, had operated for years without incident until this recent string of attacks.

“They knew exactly what they were doing,” Guerrero said. Before cutting the copper cables that power the system, the intruders disabled security cameras and penetrated the control room. Then they rolled up the cables and carried them down an adjacent hillside, navigating terrain inaccessible to vehicles. Some of the bundles were stashed among the trees, concealed for later retrieval. 

The perpetrators typically strip plastic sheaths, extract the copper and sell it for scrap. Rising metal prices have helped to fuel the incidents, Guerrero said, adding that costly theft-related damage can take weeks to repair. 

The criminals might steal a cable worth only around 1,000 Chilean pesos (close to $1), but replacing it can cost 30 to 40 times more, said Michael Minnes, general manager of CarbonFree Chile SpA, which specializes in solar development and financing. 

Chile’s investigative police, or PDI, says it is actively investigating crime at solar farms. “The theft of solar panels and batteries is indeed occurring in northern Chile, and it feeds into a market that is also international or transnational in nature,” said Marcos Ramírez, who heads the PDI’s national theft division.

In one 2023 case, the PDI in the northern city of Arica contacted Acesol after intercepting a pickup carrying panels near the border with Peru. The serial numbers matched those of a set stolen from one of the group’s members.

Yet more often than not, the perpetrators get away, creating a climate of impunity, victims say. “There’s no incentive to report because no results are expected,” said Guerrero.

Another renewable energy executive, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said security cameras only seem to be there so victims can watch thefts unfolding in real time.

Acera expects Chile’s new Security Ministry to address the problem as part of the government’s broader anti-crime campaign. “From Acera, we are fully available to provide information and to develop further proposals,” Rojas said.

An Energy Ministry spokesperson said an initial working group on cable theft was broadened to cover energy infrastructure and was ultimately transferred to the Security Ministry, which didn’t reply to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, insurance premiums are going up. All-risk construction policies often carry high deductibles, meaning thefts are typically absorbed by contractors. As the crime has ballooned over the past three years, insurers have tightened conditions and raised costs, reducing the effectiveness of coverage, according to Navarro. 

Some companies have begun replacing copper cables with less-valuable aluminum at vulnerable sites, removing a key incentive for theft. Other operators have introduced nighttime vehicle patrols, but the costs can erode already thin margins in a fiercely competitive market.

“This is an issue we need to address rather than just worry about,” said Rojas. “We’re still far from this becoming such a big concern that it slows development or reduces interest in renewables. But the point is to act today so the problem doesn’t turn into a systemic issue.”

The solar community needs to work together to achieve results, says Ríos at the Polytechnic in Madrid. “What we’re seeing in Chile is not an isolated case, but rather the local expression of a global problem that will continue to grow alongside photovoltaics unless coordinated measures for traceability and security are implemented from the installation phase.”  

The solar industry is indeed starting to pay closer attention, with discussions around insurance and enhanced security measures like tracking devices, says Gilbert Michaud, an assistant professor in the School of Environmental Sustainability at Loyola University Chicago.

“With global supply chain pressures and rising equipment costs, theft will likely be a bigger issue looking into the future,” Michaud says. “Ultimately, addressing this will help ensure a more resilient energy system.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Modern commentators think of OPEC entirely as a market management mechanism, often referring to it as a cartel. But for the first 22 years of its existence after 1960, it did not apply production quotas. It was at first a body for collective action against the major western companies and their governments, who dominated the global oil industry. It fought for fair prices and a redistribution of profits towards the countries from whose land the oil was extracted.

From the 1971 Tehran and Tripoli agreements to raise prices, then the 1973 embargo by a group of Arab producers, OPEC realised its market power. But that crashed demand and encouraged competing production from the North Sea, Alaska and Mexico.

Hence why in 1982, it had to introduce quotas to share a fast-diminishing market between its members. Apart from brief periods of breakdown, it has kept that role ever since, so assiduously that it now seems OPEC’s only function.

Modern commentators think of OPEC entirely as a market management mechanism, often referring to it as a cartel. But for the first 22 years of its existence after 1960, it did not apply production quotas. It was at first a body for collective action against the major western companies and their governments, who dominated the global oil industry. It fought for fair prices and a redistribution of profits towards the countries from whose land the oil was extracted.

The formation of OPEC+ in 2016 drastically expanded the production capacity under the alliance’s influence. The Vienna group had concluded that it could not handle both US shale and Russia simultaneously. After several attempts to cooperate with Moscow, the price war from 2014, and new thinking from Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Energy Minister Alexander Novak gave an opening.

But of the other states that came into OPEC+, Sudan, Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Brunei and Oman were declining or static producers. Kazakhstan wanted to grow its output substantially and has essentially ignored quotas. Only Oman and Kazakhstan were big enough for their production cuts to make much difference. Russia was the real prize. But its adherence to cuts was shaky too, except during the demand abyss caused by the Covid pandemic in 2020.

As it turned out, Russian production was not likely to grow dramatically after 2016. Its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, followed by sanctions, tax rises, limitations of technology and finance, and persistent Ukrainian drone attacks, mean it has often been unable to produce up to its allowance. But its size, military power, nuclear weapons and UN Security Council seat still guaranteed it would be one of the twin poles of OPEC+, with Saudi Arabia.

Higher prices and production cuts

Meanwhile, the quest for higher prices led to lengthy periods of deep production cuts. These restrained demand growth while allowing competing supply, particularly from the US and elsewhere in the Americas. In 2021, the UAE complained publicly, while officials hinted privately at an exit. The country’s production allowance was gradually raised, smoothing over the differences for a while.

Only last year did OPEC change tack on overall policy, allowing a series of production increases that did steadily bring prices down. But by then, the UAE’s production capacity was already far ahead of its limited allowance: at least 4.85 million barrels per day of capacity, versus a quota in January of 3.4 million bpd. That was proportionately by far the largest spare capacity of any member.

OPEC argued as recently as last March that “the oil sector requires cumulative investments of $18.2 trillion by 2050. This is to meet rising demand, and to counter decline rates, with the latter on average meaning we need to add around 5 mb/d every year… OPEC has repeatedly called for more investments in the oil industry.”

With the departure of the UAE, OPEC’s capacity is only 27% of global demand. That is too low for it to operate an effective market balancing mechanism. The wider OPEC+ group holds 41%.

Only last year did OPEC change tack on overall policy, allowing a series of production increases that did steadily bring prices down. But by then, the UAE’s production capacity was already far ahead of its limited allowance: at least 4.85 million barrels per day of capacity, versus a quota in January of 3.4 million bpd. That was proportionately by far the largest spare capacity of any member.

The OPEC after the UAE’s exit is a mix of one state with real spare capacity – Saudi Arabia – four with major growth ambitions (Iraq, Venezuela, Libya and perhaps a post-war Iran), and the rest with neither spare capacity nor growth, who benefit only from price rises. The burden of maintaining spare capacity to cope with unexpected price spikes will now rest almost entirely on Saudi Arabia.

The UAE has emphasised that it will continue to act as a responsible market actor following its exit. It will therefore not necessarily try to flood the market once the Gulf re-opens to free passage. It could, of course, continue to cooperate with OPEC on an informal basis.

But the UAE’s more diversified economy is better able to cope with lower oil prices, if they materialise, than Riyadh, Baghdad, Tripoli, Tehran or Caracas. The OPEC of 1973 or even 1982, a group of states whose economies depended almost entirely on their oil industries, has gone. Once immediate post-war recovery is over, the petroleum exporters’ club needs to set its sights more realistically.

• Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

Shell’s first-quarter adjusted earnings were also above the $5.58b profit it posted a ​year earlier. The London-listed company also cut the pace ​of its quarterly share buyback programme to $3 billion from $3.5 billion for the next three months, and a 5% increase in the dividend, in line with its existing CFFO distribution policy.

“Shell delivered strong results enabled by our relentless focus on operational performance in a quarter marked by unprecedented disruption in global energy markets,” Shell CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement.

Shell’s oil and gas output ​fell 4% compared with the previous ​quarter due to the Middle East conflict, ‌including ⁠damage to its Qatari Pearl gas plant, where repairs might take about a year, according to Reuters.

The company posted a strong operational performance across the portfolio to supports higher contributions from trading and optimisation. Shell pegged the cash capex outlook for the rest of the year at $24 - $26 billion, including around $4 billion for the acquisition of ARC. Its 2027-28 outlook was unchanged at $20 - $22 billion.

Last week, Shell announced an agreement to buy Canadian energy company ARC Resources in a deal valued at $16.4 billion. “Last week we announced the acquisition of ARC Resources, accelerating our strategy by adding complementary, high-quality, low-cost liquids and gas assets that we believe will deliver value for decades to come,” Sawan said. “The safety of our people remains our priority as we work closely with governments and customers to address their energy needs,” he added.

The company said its debt to ​equity ratio ⁠rose to 23.2% from 20.7% at the end of 2025. Shell had ​flagged higher debt due to managing ​price ⁠and supply disruptions and volatility due to the war, having previously said ⁠it ​was very comfortable ​with the ratio at 20%, Reuters reported.

As currently structured, PJM Interconnection LLC, which serves 67 million people across 13 states, can’t ensure ample electricity supplies while simultaneously shielding residential consumers from soaring bills, Mills wrote in a letter to stakeholders. 

“The current situation is not tenable,” Mills wrote in the letter published Wednesday. The “stress now visible in prices, reserve margins and investment pipelines reflects something more fundamental than a design that needs recalibration.”

The crises stressing PJM include looming power shortages expected to hit the grid as soon as next year and the threatened defection of one of the largest US utilities — American Electric Power Co.

Skyrocketing household electricity bills and the influx of power-hungry data centers have become electoral issues in some locales. Power costs have jumped across the PJM region, with rates climbing 51% in Maryland in the past five years and 41% in Illinois during that period, according to a US Chamber of Commerce report released on Tuesday. 

“The region has years, not decades, to make these choices deliberately,” Mills wrote.

A policy paper put forward alongside Mills’ letter outlined three potential paths to mitigate a “credibility gap” between the need for high prices to entice power-plant construction and protecting consumers from higher bills.

“Generators, utilities, investors and consumers must all believe, at a basic level, that the rules are fair, stable and the product of a process they recognize as credible,” Mills wrote.

PJM is taking too long to find solutions and that the “devil is in the details” with each of the proposals put forward, according to Ryan Levine, an analyst at Citigroup Inc.

“We worry that the continued back and forth is leading PJM to miss the opportunity,” Levine wrote in a note. Data center projects “will just move to other regions around the world if it really takes years to figure things out.”

(Updates with comment from Citigroup analyst from penultimate paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The government of Alberta wants to build a new oil-export pipeline capable of carrying 1 million barrels a day of crude to global markets. That will require “greenfield” oil sands developments as opposed to the simple expansions of existing sites that the industry has been doing for more than a decade, Jon McKenzie said in a call with analysts Wednesday. 

The higher costs of new oil sands projects mean that in order for the economics to work, they require less stringent environmental rules, he said — including a rethink of the industrial carbon tax. 

“We have to be pretty thoughtful about a set of policy environments that really do allow us to grow and fill a pipeline,” he said. “We have to have a competitive market that allows for greenfield development.”

The comments come as the governments of Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith negotiate the details of a higher carbon tax for industrial emissions and a carbon storage project to reduce the environmental impact of the oil sands. The two politicians agreed last year to a memorandum of understanding that supports a pipeline along with other policies such as a carbon tax of C$130 ($95) per metric ton of emissions. 

Bloomberg News reported on Monday that the two governments are negotiating on several matters, including how quickly the tax would ramp up to C$130. The longer it takes, the lower the financial burden on oil producers.

But McKenzie wants the tax gone. “The industrial carbon tax is unique to Canada,” he said, giving oil companies a stronger incentive “to invest outside of Canada.”

“It does the country no service to negligibly reduce the impact of climate change over the next century if we materially erode our social benefit network over the next 15 years.”

Asked about McKenzie’s comments at a news conference on Wednesday, Carney responded that Canadian oil is low risk and low carbon, with low marginal cost.

“From direct conversations with a series of governments across Asia, that’s what they’re looking for in the medium term,” Carney said. 

He added that Canada and Alberta are “making good progress” in their negotiations, “and that’s going to make the oil sands more competitive.”

(Adds PM Carney comments in the last three paragraphs.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

State-owned Pakistan LNG Ltd. is seeking shipments for May 12 to 14 and May 24 to 26 delivery in a tender that closes on Thursday, according to a notice on its website. Pakistan was forced to purchase a spot cargo for the first time in more than two years last month as the war in Iran chokes supply from the Persian Gulf, which normally produces about a fifth of the world’s LNG.

Pakistan procured nearly all of its LNG from Qatar last year, and those supplies have been cut since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late-February. Meanwhile, higher-than-normal temperatures are sweeping across the nation, boosting electricity needs from air conditioning and exacerbating rolling blackouts because of reduced output from gas-fired power plants.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent dropped toward $108 a barrel after sliding 4% on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $100. US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz will be paused, but a naval blockade will remain in place, Trump said in a Truth Social post. 

The global benchmark has climbed by about 50% since the conflict started at the end of February, cutting off hundreds of millions of barrels of Gulf oil from global markets. Flows through the chokepoint are now constrained by a double blockade, with Tehran obstructing shipping while the US is stopping vessels from accessing Iranian ports. 

Earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” 66 days after the US and Israel began bombing Iran. “We achieved the objectives of that operation,” he said.

On Tuesday, Washington played down the prospect of a return to active war, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirming the truce that began just under a month ago is still in place. Meanwhile, General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said attacks by Tehran on vessels in the Gulf and the United Arab Emirates didn’t constitute a breach of a ceasefire. 

The shutdown around Hormuz has left more than 1,550 commercial vessels, carrying some 22,000 sailors, trapped in the Persian Gulf, Caine said.

“Even if we see some deescalation headlines, the supply recovery is inherently delayed,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist covering cross-asset markets at Pepperstone Group. “This is not a switch you can just flip: You still see limited oil shipment through the strait and it still needs time for stranded tankers to be rerouted, for the insurance market to reprice risk and for production to ramp back up,” she said.

In the US, industry data showed crude inventories fell 8.1 million barrels last week, which would be the biggest draw since mid-February if confirmed by official data due later Wednesday. 

“We’re holding the pattern from rally to profit-taking each day,” said Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus. “Markets may take it in stride but irrational exuberance usually gets the best of the market. Draws bring all the bulls to the yard.” 

Oil has seen wild price swings since the war started, prompting traders to move to the sidelines to avoid extreme volatility. Aggregate open interest in Brent has dropped to its lowest level since August.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main oil grade for Asia next month from a record-high in May. It remained elevated as the hostilities in the Middle East continue to severely disrupt supplies.      

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Since the chokepoint shut on Feb. 28 due to the US-Israel war with Iran, vessels have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope as an alternative to a corridor that normally carries about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. 

While the detour has driven traffic around southern Africa up as much as 90%, it hasn’t boosted visits at regional maritime hubs, according to Rhenus Logistics.

“The increase is driven primarily by Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean container services, alongside crude oil, LNG and dry bulk trades,” said Ebenezer Simba, the company’s ocean product manager for Africa and the Middle East. But it “has not translated proportionally into African port calls,” he said. 

Operational constraints such as weather disruptions and congestion have limited competitiveness at major South African hubs including Durban and Cape Town. 

The primary driver is that there “is limited commercial incentive for carriers to adjust port rotations” there, Simba said. 

East African hubs dependent on Suez routing — such as Djibouti and Port Sudan — are also net losers due to limited capacity relative to other Gulf-surrounded ports such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, Sohar in Oman and harbors in South Asia, he added.

There are some regional winners.

Gains are concentrated in a handful of locations positioned to service vessels rather than handle cargo, Simba said. Harbors such as Port Louis in Mauritius as well as Lüderitz and Walvis Bay in Namibia — along with offshore refueling, or bunkering, zones in West Africa — are benefiting from a jump in demand as ships take on fuel for longer voyages.

Time and Costs

Bunker calls at Port Louis surged 42% to 294 vessels in March from the previous month, while fuel volumes climbed nearly three-fifths to over 109,000 tons, the Mauritius Ports Authority said.

The reshaping of global trade lanes is adding time and cost to voyages. Rerouted trips between Asia, Europe and the Gulf can take as much as two weeks longer than standard transit times, said Vinny Licata, head of logistics and import compliance at Fictiv. Some carriers are also terminating trips outside the Persian Gulf to avoid the risks tied to the war.

For Africa, responsible for about 2% of global maritime exports and 5% of imports, the surge in shipping hasn’t translated into higher trade volumes.

“Africa has become a critical transit and servicing geography rather than a destination-port winner,” Simba said. Value capture is concentrated in “fuel supply and maritime services rather than container throughput,” he said.

The pattern echoes disruptions in late 2023 and early 2024, when attacks on Red Sea shipping forced vessels onto longer routes around southern Africa but failed to deliver sustained gains for most of the continent’s ports.

Security risks are rising again just as some container lines had begun testing a return to the Red Sea-Suez route in late 2025 and early 2026. As soon as the “Gulf conflict erupted, they suspended those trials and plans in case the Houthis renewed their attacks,” said Darron Wadey, a senior shipping analyst at Dynamar BV.

Maritime piracy off Somalia’s coast is resurging, with at least three hijackings reported in the past week, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. The uptick reflects broader instability linked first to Red Sea attacks and now to tensions around Hormuz.

For shipping lines, the Suez route is no longer viable, making the Cape route their default.

“Many are treating it as the new reality,” Licata said, a shift that is already encouraging investment in permanent bunkering infrastructure across parts of Africa.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.