Dangote appointed Stanbic IBTC Capital Ltd., Vetiva Advisory Services Ltd. and FirstCap Ltd. to advise on the IPO for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Fze, FirstCap Chief Executive Officer Ukandu Ukandu said by email.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” Frank Mwiti, CEO of the Nairobi exchange said after a meeting last week between the heads of African exchanges and billionaire Dangote in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital.

A spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed the meeting between exchange officials, but declined to disclose details.

The share sale across multiple African exchanges would be a first for the continent. It will help deepen equity markets in Nigeria — which is poised to return to the FTSE Russell frontier-markets benchmark — and other nations where it lists. Dangote plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years, rivaling fellow billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s facility in India.

Dangote’s refinery currently has the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of oil per day. The African Export-Import Bank last month said it’s underwritten $2.5 billion of a $4 billion syndicated facility intended for the refinery expansion. 

The facility’s expansion is part of at least $40 billion that Dangote plans to spend to fund a growth drive over the next five years that also includes quadrupling fertilizer output and more than doubling its oil refinery capacity.

Apart from Nigeria, the plant has been selling refined fuel to African nations, which are struggling to obtain gasoline and diesel supplies because of the US-Israel war on Iran. 

Dangote, the chairman of the refinery, earlier this month met with officials of the Nigerian Exchange Group as well as member organizations of the African Securities Exchanges Association to discuss enabling investor participation across African markets in the IPO, according to a spokesman for the Nigerian exchange. 

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©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“We call for the restoration of the safe, unimpeded, and continuous transit passage of vessels and aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations said in a statement on Monday. They also urged all parties to ensure the safety of seafarers and ships.

The US military said it would implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. on Monday Washington time, adding that it would allow other vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz if they’re not stopping in the Islamic Republic.

“We urge the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran to continue negotiations that will lead to the permanent end of the conflict and lasting peace and stability in the region,” Asean said.

The ministers also called for the “full and effective” implementation of the ceasefire to prevent further loss of lives in the conflict that began in late February.

The top diplomats from the bloc, many of whose members source oil from the Middle East, met virtually on Monday to discuss the war in the Middle East.

Officials agreed to boost cooperation to respond to challenges affecting Asean, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said in a briefing.

“This meeting also discussed prioritizing energy supply to fellow Asean member states in times of crisis,” Lazaro said.

(Updates with comments from Philippine foreign affairs chief.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

More than six weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, customers hoping to shield themselves from the extra costs are increasingly turning to greener solutions.

Ningbo Deye Technology Co., a major producer of energy storage systems and inverters, said last week it expects first-quarter profit to climb as much as 70% on a surge in overseas orders. Meanwhile, exports of Chinese-made electric vehicles and hybrids more than doubled in March to a record 349,000 units, as higher fuel prices renew the appetite for alternatives to gasoline-powered cars. 

Deye attributed the jump in profit directly to geopolitical turmoil, with households and companies in Europe and Southeast Asia increasingly looking to battery storage. Automakers such as BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are likewise benefiting, with industry observers noting parallels with the 1970s oil shock, when Japan gained global market share by offering fuel‑efficient cars during a period of sustained turmoil.

Chinese firms are uniquely well-positioned, given their dominance of clean energy supply chains from solar panels to batteries and EVs. Years spent building up capacity, often at the expense of profitability, have allowed them to quickly scale-up distribution at competitive prices. 

But the export boom also masks continued weakness at home. Domestic EV and hybrid sales fell again in March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. 

China’s pivot to consumption-led growth has yet to materialize, leaving it overly reliant on foreign buyers. In the event of a prolonged war, the hit to the global economy could shrink overseas demand — and sharply reverse the gains made in the first weeks of the conflict. 

On the Wire

US President Donald Trump’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz risks deepening an unfolding economic crisis for Asia’s energy-dependent economies, including America’s allies in the region and China. 

China has cushions to damp the oil shock from the Iran war, according to Bloomberg Economics. But an extended conflict would present bigger threats — demand destruction in overseas markets and supply-chain snags that could hurt exports.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is cutting its passenger capacity following a surge in jet fuel costs.

Shares in Chinese rare earth companies advanced after key producers announced a sharp increase in second-quarter product prices, signaling tighter supply conditions and stronger demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

China has indicated it will halt exports of sulfuric acid from May, hitting metals and fertilizer industries already strained by raw material bottlenecks resulting from the Iran war.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, April 13

• Nothing major scheduled

Tuesday, April 14

• China’s March trade balance and 1st batch of trade data, ~11:00
  • Crude oil, natural gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports
  • Iron ore, copper & steel imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports
  • Soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
• EARNINGS: Hengli Petrochemical

Wednesday, April 15

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• Canton fair in Guangzhou (phase 1 through April 19)
• EARNINGS: CATL

Thursday, April 16

• China’s home prices for March, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for March, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
    • 1Q GDP
    • 1Q pork output and inventory
• Antaike base metals conference in Hangzhou
• SHPGX natural gas conference in Beijing, day 1

Friday, April 17

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• SHPGX’s natural gas conference in Beijing, day 2

Saturday, April 18

• China’s 2nd batch of March trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

US forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, the US Central Command said. They won’t impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, Centcom said.

The failure of the peace talks raises concerns that LNG supply through the strait, which carried about a fifth of the world’s supply of the fuel before the war started at the end of February, will be hampered for longer. Oil and European natural gas surged in Asian trading on Monday.

Traders will be closely monitoring how aggressive China — the world’s top LNG buyer last year — refills its storage, and whether it needs to pull shipments away from Europe to do so. State-owned oil and gas company China National Petroleum Corp. has this month started injections into major underground storage sites across the west of the nation to ensure sufficient supply.

LNG prices have soared since the conflict broke out, though they have retreated from a high near $25 a million British thermal units in the week after the war started. Optimism the sides could reach a deal after agreeing to a ceasefire pushed prices lower last week, to just above $17.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Bullion fell as much as 2.2% to dip below $4,650 an ounce in early trading, before paring losses. The US military said it will begin the blockade at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday after weekend negotiations with Iran failed to secure a deal to turn a fragile ceasefire into a lasting peace after six weeks of war in the Middle East.

Oil and natural gas prices surged, with President Donald Trump also saying the US will interdict any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran for safe passage through Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint that links the Persian Gulf to global markets. Before the war, a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait.

“Events over the weekend clearly put the fragile ceasefire at risk and likely prolong the conflict,” said Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management in Asia at Union Bancaire Privée. Price movements in gold were “less exaggerated” than earlier in the war, he added, although “the real test” will come when London wakes up later on Monday.

Equity futures slid and a gauge of the dollar rose as much as 0.5%, a headwind for gold that’s priced in the US currency. The spike in energy prices also raised inflationary risks, making it more likely that central banks will delay cutting interest rates or even hike them. This is a negative for non-yielding bullion, which benefits when borrowing costs are lower.

In an early reading of the war’s impact on the US economy, March inflation climbed by the most in nearly four years, with a record increase in gasoline prices responsible for nearly three-quarters of the monthly advance, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.

Bullion has fallen nearly 11% since the conflict began at the end of February, with a liquidity squeeze in the early weeks pushing investors to offload the metal to cover losses elsewhere. More recently, gold has clawed back some losses as a growing focus on slowing economic growth countered the risk of higher inflation.

This shift should continue to provide some support for bullion despite the decline early on Monday, said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. “I suspect gold could threaten last week’s low of $4,650 but ultimately hold at these levels,” he said.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,723.55 an ounce at 10:01 a.m. in Singapore. Silver slid 2% to $74.36 an ounce. Platinum also declined, while palladium edged higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.3%.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The structure is part of the country’s Moho offshore exploration and production license. According to TotalEnergies, the well encountered a hydrocarbon column of approximately 160 meters in good-quality Albian reservoirs, and an extensive data acquisition and sampling campaign was carried out to support the subsurface interpretation and future development.

QatarEnergy holds a 15% shareholding position in TotalEnergies E&P Congo (TEPC) which is the operator in the Moho license. TEPC holds a 63.5% share of the license, alongside Trident Energy (21.5%), and Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (15%).

“We are pleased to further strengthen our expanding international portfolio with this promising new discovery in the Republic of Congo. We look forward to working with our strategic partner, TotalEnergies, and with the Congolese Government to develop these resources,” said Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and the President and CEO of QatarEnergy.

The Moho G discovery, together with the discovery previously made on the nearby Moho F structure, represent recoverable resources estimated at close to 100 million barrels, which are planned to be developed as a tie-back to the existing Moho facilities, TotalEnergies said in a separate statement.

“This new discovery on the Moho license benefits from its proximity to existing production infrastructure, allowing a short cycle, cost effective tie-back development,” said Nicola Mavilla, Senior Vice-President Exploration at TotalEnergies. “By leveraging our technical expertise and existing infrastructure, we are creating the conditions for future value‑accretive production for the company.”

A temporary ceasefire remains shaky. Implementation will take time, peace talks over the weekend broke down, and there could still be a lengthy period of insecurity. Even in the ideal case of a swift peace deal, it will take months to restore normal logistics, restart fields and repair damaged facilities.

For now, every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the world continues to lose about 11 million barrels per day of oil supply out of about 105 million bpd of demand. Physical Brent crude prices have topped $140 per barrel and jet fuel prices exceed $200.

Also cut off are 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, some 40% of nitrogen-based fertiliser exports, 45% of sulphur exports, nearly 39% of helium, about 34% of methanol exports, from 9-15% of polymers, and 22% of non-Chinese aluminium production. Production of these energy-intensive commodities elsewhere will also be slashed by the loss of oil and gas feedstock.

Planning for a long crisis

The best way to make this into a short-lived crisis is to plan for a long one.

One of the key lessons from the 1970s oil crises was that much of the harm was self-inflicted. Governments’ well-intentioned efforts to cushion the shock instead delayed adjustment and worsened the economic harm. The iconic pictures of drivers queueing for petrol are because of government price controls – indeed, some of these photos date from earlier in 1973, before the October embargo.

Governments also tried various well-intentioned but economically-damaging conservation policies. Edward Heath’s administration in Britain brought in the infamous three-day working week, as a coal miners’ strike coincided with the oil shock.

This time, numerous Asian countries have introduced direct measures to cut energy consumption. Bangladesh has set air-conditioning at higher temperatures and turned off unnecessary lighting. South Korea has asked people to take shorter showers. Ethiopia has told non-essential workers to go on leave. After the Covid-era experience, work-from-home policies are a reasonable approach to cut fuel use in commuting, and cooling offices.

Direct income support

However, capping fuel prices, cutting fuel taxes, or subsidising energy bills, are expensive policies. Major consumers – India, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam – have introduced such measures or are considering them.

Better would be direct income support for lower-income people. More generally, governments should accelerate the deployment of electric vehicles. The UK, for example, could cancel its recent increases on taxes on EVs. With soaring diesel and petrol prices, battery cars are now cost-savers as well as environmentally friendly, but some people may need help to buy one.

Governments can make public transport free for a period, and run more services of buses and trains. City authorities can designate additional bike paths and try to encourage the uptake of e-bikes and electric three-wheelers (tuk-tuks or rickshaws).

Restricting exports

Another popular policy is to restrict oil exports. China has temporarily banned the export of refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline (petrol), though easing this for a few favoured Asian countries. Thailand has also suspended exports. India has introduced export taxes for oil products. South Korea has limited exports to no more than 2025 levels and banned the export of naphtha outright. Even the US might limit its shipments of crude oil, refined products or both, if rising domestic fuel prices present a political liability to President Donald Trump.

The intention here is to avoid shortages on the domestic market, and keep prices at home lower than on the international market. But such “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies are very dangerous. Countries without adequate refining capacity, such as Australia, New Zealand and Sri Lanka, could find themselves competing for a very small pool of available exports.

Impact on the refining sector

The whole refining sector would become extremely inefficient if refineries cannot export products which are in relative surplus. They would have to cut back runs, worsening the crisis.

It is not in the interests of China, for example, to undermine the minerals industries in Australia, or Congo, or Indonesia, from which it gets much of its raw materials, by cutting off their diesel supplies. The food shock will be magnified if farm machinery and irrigation pumps cannot run.

Unlike 2022 and the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this crisis is primarily an oil rather than gas crisis. Electricity prices are, for most countries, a secondary concern this time, though still serious. For instance, Pakistan, which suffered badly from LNG cut-offs in 2022, has improved its position greatly by successfully installing some 27-33 gigawatts of solar power, mostly distributed panels.

Relying on other resources

Many Asian countries are turning back to coal for power generation, trying to restart nuclear reactors as in Japan and South Korea, and hastening renewable deployment. Indonesia, a laggard in renewable energy, now wants to build 100 gigawatts of solar power. Even Germany is rethinking its disastrous nuclear phase-out, although it will not be quick or easy to bring the six remaining reactors back to service.

But two of the big LNG users, China and India, hardly consume gas for power generation, so such policies will have limited impact. Saving gas and oil in industry through efficiency measures is key. So too are measures to encourage the wisest use of fertilisers, which are heavily and inefficiently subsidised in India.

One of the most controversial policies, at least in Europe, is encouraging more domestic oil and gas production. In most cases, additional hydrocarbon production in the short term will be small. It will reduce global energy prices only marginally.

On the other hand, it is better than importing, from the viewpoint of economy, environment and security. It will bring some tax revenues and employment to European countries that are badly short of both. It will be funded by private money, so it does not compete with government support for low-carbon energy. And if the production is small, the climate impact will likewise be small.

Speeding up the transition

But, contra the opponents of “net-zero” carbon policies, if Europe, Australia and others had not built so much renewable capacity since 2022, they would be coming into this crisis in a much worse position.

This energy crisis will dramatically accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power. It clears away many of the arguments about the supposed greater reliability and affordability of hydrocarbons. The job of governments is to manage the inevitable short-term dislocations – which will be agonising for many – while speeding the longer-term transition.

• Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

The Ministry said operational and technical efforts have restored pumping capacity through the East–West pipeline to approximately 7 million barrels per day, recovering around 700,000 barrels per day lost following the attacks. 

The Ministry also confirmed that output from the Manifa oil field, where production had been reduced by about 300,000 barrels per day, has also been fully restored.

However, work is still ongoing to restore the Khurais oilfield to full capacity, which had also seen output reduced by around 300,000 barrels per day. Full production is expected to be announced once restoration is complete.

Operational resilience and reliability

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the Ministry said, “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the Kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy.”

The East–West pipeline, which transports crude oil from the Kingdom’s eastern production areas to export terminals on the Red Sea, has played a critical role in maintaining export flows amid regional shipping disruptions.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of Energy confirmed that a series of attacks on energy facilities had temporarily reduced oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day. The Ministry did not assign responsibility for the attacks.

The latest announcement comes after the Ministry confirmed on 9 April that major refining facilities, including SATORP in Jubail, Ras Tanura refinery, SAMREF refinery in Yanbu, and Riyadh refinery had also been hit, as well as processing facilities in Ju’aymah, which impacted exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.

Delaney, an Irish citizen, is an accomplished energy expert and long-time member of bp’s top management with more than 30 years of professional experience.

In her current position as Executive Vice President at one of the three global businesses of bp, she is responsible for an organisation with more than 50,000 employees in around 50 countries, spanning fuels and biofuels, industrial and automotive lubricant production, as well as aviation fuels and e-mobility, OMV said.

If confirmed, Delaney would be OMV’s first female chief executive.

“OMV is a leading Austrian company with international influence and of vital importance to the domestic economy and industry,” ​Austrian Chancellor Christian ​Stocker and Finance ⁠Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said in a statement.

“Our aim is to further develop and strategically strengthen OMV as one of Europe’s leading ​energy companies. The appointment of Emma Delaney as the new ​CEO sends ⁠a strong signal in this direction.” Hattmannsdorfer added that the focus for OMV is on in-house raw material extraction and further diversification, as well as the development of its ⁠chemicals and ​plastics business.

The OMV Supervisory Board based in Vienna will decide on the appointment of the CEO at its next meeting. If confirmed, the term of the mandate is to be three years with an option to extend by additional two years by mutual agreement, OMV said. Current CEO Alfred Stern, who has held the post since September 2021, announced last May that he would not stand for re-election when his ​contract expires at the end of August 2026.

Following the announcement, bp said ​that Richard Harding ‌will replace Delaney as the ​head of its ​customers and products business ⁠on an ​interim basis from ​April 13.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a social media post, essentially blocking Iran’s means of exporting oil.

Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner left the region Sunday after 21 hours of negotiations with top Iranian officials, mediated by Pakistan in an effort to end the six-week-old war. The failed talks left the ceasefire clinched last week in limbo, and Trump’s post signals more peril for the deal.

Hormuz is the world’s most important energy chokepoint, accounting for about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. A full blockade of the strait would further roil global oil markets by choking off the remaining trickle of shipments that have continued to move through the waterway. 

A blockade would also sever a key financial lifeline for Iran, which has continued to export at levels similar to before the war, while benefiting from surging prices for its crude. Oil futures ended last week 30% above where they were before the war, while traders are paying record amounts north of $140 a barrel for some real-world cargoes as they scramble for supplies. 

Iran’s semi-official media cited “excessive” US demands for the failed talks. But the country’s foreign ministry said it was natural that differences wouldn’t be resolved in a single round of negotiations, leaving the door open for more discussions.

The Trump administration used a similar approach against Venezuela earlier this year — effectively enforcing a blockade against its sanctioned crude on the open seas before its January capture of Nicolas Maduro.

Roughly a dozen warships were summoned for that effort. While the operation concentrated on the Caribbean, seizures sometimes happened far from Venezuela, including in the Indian Ocean.

Trump didn’t say Sunday where the US would enforce its blockade against Iran. But his declaration comes after weeks of encouragement from some energy experts, who cast the approach as a way to deprive Iran of revenue tied to oil and strengthen US leverage against Tehran as it seeks a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

If Trump orders the Navy to blockade the strait itself, he puts US assets in danger of Iranian missiles. But the US could more easily enforce a blockade out of reach of most of Tehran’s weaponry, in the Arabian Sea and other waters.

A blockade of the Hormuz strait is a less risky alternative to a military operation to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil export hub, said Dennis Ross, a former US diplomat and Middle East envoy.

“Kharg Island for them is what they need to be able to hold. We can seize it, but then our forces would be quite vulnerable,” Ross said Sunday on Fox News. “This is a much smarter move than seizing Kharg Island.”

Seized oil cargoes could be sold by commodity trading firms on the world market, ensuring Tehran doesn’t benefit, said Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The US has issued a sanctions waiver authorizing the sale of some Iranian crude that expires on April 19.

Since the war began, Iran has been the one country that has been able to export oil at a rate akin to pre-war levels. In contrast, production from its neighbors collapsed as the Hormuz strait was effectively closed off and Tehran began striking critical energy infrastructure in the region, sparking a scramble for crude oil across the world.

Iran exported about 1.7 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensate in March, according to preliminary tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than neighboring Iraq, which before the war was shipping at a rate far in excess of Iran.

Trump also said Iran’s possible mining of the key waterway and its16 demands for tolls to ensure safe passage is “WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.” 

The president also widened his threat to international waters, saying the US Navy would interdict any vessel that had paid Iran’s toll and that “no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

(Updates with context, quotes beginning in fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

About 60% of Australia’s urea — a key nitrogen fertilizer used to boost crop yields — typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that remains constrained despite a US-Iran ceasefire that took effect April 8, Collins told Sky News Australia on Sunday.

The country has sufficient supplies in reserve and “on the water,” Collins said, adding the government is working with industry to secure longer-term availability. Australia is among the world’s largest exporters of wheat, beef, wool and dairy.

Domestic production is expected to begin in mid-2027 at the A$6.5 billion ($4.6 billion) Perdaman Urea Plant in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, she said.

Grocery prices may immediately rise 3% to 4% as higher fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the conflict feed through the economy, Collins said, citing Treasury estimates.

Economic Blow

Australia is operating at level 2 of its four-tier National Fuel Security Plan, indicating supplies are continuing but under pressure. The government is bracing for a “long tail” of economic effects and working to shore up fuel supply, Infrastructure Minister Catherine King told ABC News on Sunday.

The country has launched an A$20 million campaign — “Every Little Bit Helps” — to raise awareness of fuel price pressures, outline government actions and encourage households to reduce fuel use.

The government is considering further measures to support households and businesses, while advancing renewable energy and electrification, including domestic production of low-carbon liquid fuels and sustainable aviation fuel, King said.

Meanwhile, King said that “it might not be the right time now,” to introduce planned changes to a national road user charge, adding that more work is needed.

(Adds Infrastructure Minister’s comments from sixth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Scientists warn that the country is approaching a tipping point known as “peak water,” which means that as Alpine glaciers shrink, these frozen reservoirs will no longer be able to boost river flows and generate electricity to the same extent they once did.

“Almost all glaciers have been losing mass. That is consensus,” said Francesca Pellicciotti, a glaciologist at the Institute of Science and Technology Austria. “There will be less water for hydropower at some point.” 

The concept is sharpening concerns in Vienna that reliance on hydropower — long seen as a pillar of energy security — may become a vulnerability just as conflict-driven disruptions heighten the risks of depending on imported fuels. For a country whose second-most valuable listed company — state-controlled utility Verbund AG — generates about 90% of its electricity from hydropower, the implications are rippling from energy markets to credit ratings.

Climate change is already causing more volatile precipitation patterns, but the prospect of declining water availability underscores the need to diversify into wind, solar and energy storage to cushion both climate-driven shocks and external supply risks. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel attacked has highlighted how vulnerable export dependence energy systems can be.

With climate models suggesting that water supplies could peak over the next two decades, Austria faces a narrowing window to adapt. Although accelerated glacier melting has temporarily increased runoff, that trend will reverse as soon as 2040. Beyond that point, shrinking ice reserves will mean less meltwater feeding rivers and dam reservoirs.

A new generation of research is attempting to sharpen those projections. Pellicciotti is leading a $9.5 million project that combines artificial intelligence with physics-based models to simulate mountain water systems and identify tipping points in glacier-fed basins. The initiative — known as MountAInWater and partly funded by former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt — aims to pinpoint when and where peak water may occur.

Warnings are already showing up in financial metrics. S&P Global Ratings last month downgraded Verbund to A from A+, citing weaker hydro conditions and declining electricity-generation prospects. The agency expects earnings to weaken over 2026 and 2027.

The credit downgrade highlights how climate risk is translating into measurable financial pressure. Verbund’s generation coefficient — a key measure of river flow relative to long-term averages — fell to 0.79 in 2025, significantly below normal levels. Lower water availability constrains power generation, potentially squeezing margins even as the company accelerates investment.

Verbund is expected to spend more than €2 billion ($2.3 billion) over this year and next on transmission and renewable expansion. Because of the push, debt is expected to more than double by 2028. At the same time, cash flows are set to weaken due to lower hydropower output and government-imposed electricity price caps.

Austria’s hydropower network has long been seen as a strategic advantage, helping the country achieve one of Europe’s highest shares of renewable electricity and shielding it from fossil fuel volatility. But that strength is becoming more conditional as weather patterns shift.

Precipitation is increasingly falling as rain rather than snow, disrupting the steady spring melt that traditionally feeds rivers. As a result, utilities face more volatile inflows, with periods of drought punctuated by intense rainfall. This variability complicates reservoir management and reduces predictability in generation, according to Verbund.

The seasonal imbalance is particularly evident in winter, when hydropower output drops. That means in colder months, Austria has to turn to other sources.

“We can cover over 90% of our electricity from renewable energy,” Economy Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer said at a March 26 briefing. “But in winter, we still have to produce 20% of our demand through gas-fired power plants and import another 20%.”

That gap is driving a push to diversify the energy mix, with Austrian government pressing ahead with the Renewable Energy Expansion Acceleration Act. Known as the EABG, the proposed legislation aims at accelerating wind, solar and transmission projects.

Hattmannsdorfer said the law will introduce uniform nationwide procedures and prioritize renewable energy infrastructure — an attempt to cut through legal disputes. Some projects have taken more than a decade to secure approval under the current system.

“We are creating a fast track for projects of the energy transition — one law, one authority, one decision,” he said, describing a streamlined approach intended to replace overlapping federal, regional and local approvals.

To gain approval, the ruling centrist coalition will need a constitutional majority, meaning it will need to lock in support either from the Green party of the far-right Freedom Party. Both have already voiced concerns.

The climate-skeptic Freedom Party has long opposed wind power as unsightly and warned that federal authorities are seeking to curb the rights of provinces and municipalities, where it has more representation. The Greens, by contrast, want bolder targets for renewable power to be imposed on provinces.

“In times of global uncertainty, we shouldn't allow any kind of delays on domestic energy production,” Energy State Secretary Elisabeth Zehetner said last month.

The reforms reflect a broader shift in Austria’s energy strategy — from focusing primarily on decarbonization to incorporating climate adaptation. That means deemphasizing hydropower.

Verbund is already adjusting. The utility is diversifying into wind and solar, expanding facilities for storing power and investing in efficiency improvements at existing plants. It’s also broadening its geographic footprint in neighboring European markets to reduce exposure to local hydrological conditions.

Despite the pivot, hydropower remains central for Austria, but there’s an element of caution due to the uncertain timing of peak water. The risk is that a temporary boost in waters from melting glaciers will mask the longer-term decline and slow action. But once a critical threshold is reached, the loss of stored ice becomes irreversible.

For Austria, that moment would mark a turning point, eroding the competitive advantage of relatively low electricity prices. Expanding wind and solar could help smooth seasonal imbalances and create a more resilient energy mix.

While scaling those technologies quickly enough remains a challenge, Austria could chart a path for other hydropower-dependent economies. Its success will depend on whether the EABG legislation gets approved in a form that can help the country adapt before the peak passes.

“The key question is when peak water is coming,” Pellicciotti said. “After that, the water provided by glaciers will start declining.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The operator of the 13-state eastern US grid would match proposed data centers with new power plants, PJM said on its website Friday. This process would take place from September through March 2027.  Late next week, PJM will ask how many suitors on both sides are interested in participating in bilateral negotiations, along with terms such as contract duration.

Massive electricity consumption from data centers are transforming the global energy landscape. Power grids are at the epicenter of the shift, working to ensure tech companies have sufficient electricity while grappling with the pressures of limited supplies and extreme weather events.

PJM already is bracing for a multi-gigawatt supply shortage in the summer of 2027. The shortfall may reach 60 gigawatts over the next decade, which would equal the output of 60 big nuclear reactors. 

Should the initiative — which may include resuscitating retired plants and upgrading existing facilities — fail to attract enough new supply, grid managers plan to pursue a second-phase process. 

It’s unclear how much the new power supplies will cost but the pricetag for building natural gas-fired plants have more than doubled in the past five years. 

PJM, along with federal and state lawmakers, has been seeking options to build power plants without raising utility bills for consumers. Investors have been expecting the grid operator to procure 15-year contracts for 10-to-13 gigawatts, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith wrote Thursday.

PJM’s initial proposal discussed contract durations that could vary from two to 15 years. 

Details of the proposal will be reviewed next week before a final vote is held by PJM stakeholders in late May. The final plan will be submitted to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for approval in early June.

(Updates with additional details in the second, fifth and seventh paragraphs.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Creditors want more of a say in how the Brazilian biofuels giant is managed, given they are poised to become significant stockholders through a potential debt-for-equity swap, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. 

During the meetings, controlling shareholders Shell Plc and Cosan SA resisted a push from debtholders that they commit to injecting more money into Raízen, the people said. London-based company Shell agreed in March to inject 3.5 billion reais during the restructuring, while Cosan founder Rubens Ometto committed to put in 500 million reais. The new proposal request was reported earlier by newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.

Negotiations are expected to continue in the coming days as the parties race to finalize a plan that can secure support from a majority of bondholders and banks, the people said. While a counterproposal from creditors is expected to come in the next week, there is no formal deadline for the plan, and structures may still change, the people added. The parties are up against a legal deadline of June 6 to come up with an out-of-court settlement.

The push for governance changes also reflects deepening lender discomfort with Raízen’s performance. The joint venture, created in 2011, has been hammered by high interest rates, large investments that have yet to pay off and operational hurdles in its sugar and ethanol divisions, leading to a string of earnings misses.

Raízen, Cosan and Shell declined to comment.

The New York meetings follow Raízen’s move to seek an extrajudicial restructuring, a step aimed at protecting cash flow during negotiations. Both the company and its creditors agree that an out-of-court solution is preferable to a full bankruptcy filing, the people added.

Debt traders have soured on Brazilian corporate debt after being hit with a string of bad news. Raízen and supermarket chain Cia. Brasileira de Distribuição both began out-of-court restructurings in the past month, and Alliança Saúde e Participações SA is seeking temporary court protection from creditors. Other companies like Braskem SA, HIG’s Kora Saúde and Oncoclinicas do Brasil Servicos Medicos SA are also weighing restructuring measures, people familiar with the matter have said.

(Updates to include Shell comment in sixth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent traded near $96 a barrel, with futures down about 12% this week, on track for their biggest retreat since June. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead US discussions with Iranian officials in Islamabad on Saturday. Traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, remains at a near-standstill.

Saudi Arabia on Thursday said strikes on its energy infrastructure crimped flows through an East-West pipeline the kingdom has been using to export crude via the Red Sea. The attacks cut output capacity by more than 600,000 barrels a day and reduced the pipeline flows by 700,000 barrels a day. 

Oil markets have been extremely turbulent since the war began and prices remain more than 30% above pre-conflict levels. Attention is now turning to how sustainable the truce announced this week will be, and whether a lasting peace can emerge that will restart flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The weekend meeting is flip-a-coin time, although I think the chance of a deal or something that looks like a deal is the most likely outcome,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. “The futures market is sending a signal of resilience given we are six weeks into the closure and prices still trading below $100,” he added, referring to the waterway’s near-halt.

Countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, including Japan, have begun tapping inventories. The Asian nation will release about 20 days of oil from its stockpiles in May, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said. In China, state refiners were given the green light to tap into commercial reserves, while India’s largest private refiner has started to cap fuel purchases at pumps to manage stocks.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was “very optimistic” about a deal with Iran and Israel was “going to low-key” it with strikes on Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his position that the ongoing attacks weren’t part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Trump later threatened Tehran over charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz.  

“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait,” Trump wrote Thursday on social media. “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

The waterway’s near-closure since the end of February has disrupted a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, triggering a severe supply shock. 

Trump described Iran’s leaders as “much more reasonable” than their public comments would suggest in a phone interview with NBC News. However, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a statement on Telegram that Iran “will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” though it was unclear if he was referring to past Iranian demands to retain control of the waterway that the US has rejected.

“The market is refocusing on the reality of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which remain far from normalized and are unlikely to snap back quickly,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.

Elsewhere, Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees progress toward a potential peace deal. Brent’s gains briefly eased following the comments. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani will be replaced by Lorenzo Mariani, a company veteran who’s currently a senior executive at missile-maker MBDA Missile Systems Services SAS, Italy’s Finance Ministry said late Thursday. The government renewed the terms of Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi and Enel’s Flavio Cattaneo for another three years.   

Meloni is recalibrating leadership at state-controlled firms ahead of a re-election campaign set to take place by the end of next year. A polling setback last month weakened the premier and prompted changes in her cabinet, heightening attention on this round of executive appointments. 

Cingolani’s departure, after a turnaround at Leonardo that’s been welcomed by investors, underscores the pressure on Meloni to reassert power after the referendum on judicial reform she supported was soundly rejected at the polls. Opponents had urged voters to show their dissatisfaction with her leadership, and the outcome weakened the premier politically.

Leonardo shares, which have declined this week over reports of the pending CEO change, fell as much as 2.4% in Milan on Friday. 

Italy owns significant stakes in a number of public and non-public companies considered strategic to the country’s security interests. The government exerts control through board majorities and proposes the CEOs on a three-year cycle. Its nominations require shareholder approvals. 

On Thursday, the government also moved to switch the CEO of electricity grid operator Terna SpA, Giuseppina Di Foggia, to the role of board chair at oil and gas group Eni. 

Di Foggia’s replacement at Terna is expected to be the current CEO at air-traffic controller Enav SpA, Pasqualino Monti. The finance ministry on Thursday proposed Igor de Biasio, the current chairman of Terna, to be CEO of Enav.

Poste Italiane SpA CEO Matteo Del Fante was nominated for a fourth term on April 2.

Leonardo Turnaround

Cingolani, 64, was appointed in 2023 by Meloni, and his position was initially seen as safe as his term came up for renewal. The former government minister presided over a 28% increase in revenue from 2023 to 2025, and the stock has risen fivefold as he repositioned Leonardo as a consolidator in the fast-changing European defense sector.

People who have worked with him have described Cingolani as an independent thinker, an approach that sits at odds with Meloni’s tightly controlled management style.

He formed a tank alliance with Germany’s Rheinmetall AG and a drone partnership with Turkey’s Baykar Technologies, while moving ahead on a satellite venture with Airbus SE and Thales SA. Cingolani also acquired the defense business of Italy’s Iveco Group NV, while exiting some businesses and working to develop an air-defense system for Europe.

Activist investor Guy Wyser-Pratte blasted the reported plan to replace him, telling Bloomberg News this week, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

Mariani, the current head of MBDA’s Italian operations, spent more than three decades at Leonardo. He has held senior roles including chief commercial officer, CEO of Leonardo International and head of its defense electronics division. MBDA is a joint venture owned by Airbus, BAE Systems Plc and Leonardo.

“We see the appointment of Mr Mariani as new CEO of Leonardo like an internal solution which should suggest continuity in the group’s strategy,” Banca Akros analyst Andrea Belloli said in a note. 

Meloni, who heads the Brothers of Italy party, has been negotiating for weeks on corporate appointments with her two coalition partners, Matteo Salvini’s League and Antonio Tajani’s Forza Italia. She had initially sought continuity, but the election loss forced a reassessment. Concurrently, the Iran war has strained Italy’s economy, driving up energy costs for businesses and consumers.

Together, the setbacks have prompted the premier to implement changes in order to project a sense of control and power, including a replacement of Italy’s tourism minister. Bloomberg reported last month that changes were afoot at state-backed companies, including at Leonardo, while Eni’s Descalzi appeared safe.

The choices offer insight into Meloni’s priorities for strategic sectors, and will play a key role in shaping the 49-year-old premier’s economic agenda as she seeks a second term in elections expected by the end of next year.

Meloni left intact leadership at Italy’s two biggest energy firms, where she’s sought to ease the impact of fuel-price spikes and the economic slowdown triggered by the Iran war.

Descalzi’s confirmation extends his tenure at Eni to more than a decade. The group plays a central role in Italy’s foreign policy, particularly in securing energy supplies in North Africa and expanding in Asia and Latin America.

Enel’s Cattaneo is expected to continue his strategy of debt reduction and refocusing the utility on core markets.

At Terna, Di Foggia was investing aggressively to fortify the grid for greater demands tied to AI and the energy transition. Her replacement as CEO will be tasked with seeing those projects through.

(Updates with Friday’s trading from fifth paragraph, adds analyst comment.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Webster highlights the importance of resilience, diversified sourcing, strategic stockpiling and dialogue between governments, while warning of wider economic effects across chemicals, fertilisers and critical feedstocks. He also reflects on how shifting geopolitics may reshape global partnerships in an increasingly fragmented landscape.

“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait,” Trump wrote Thursday on social media. “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

In a later post, Trump said Iran was doing a “very poor” job of allowing oil to pass through the waterway. “That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote.

Trump had earlier described Iran’s leaders as “much more reasonable” than their public comments would suggest in a phone interview with NBC News. The US president also said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “going to low-key it” with Israeli airstrikes on Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, after the two leaders spoke by phone on Wednesday.

Netanyahu’s decision to open direct talks with Lebanon pushed oil prices down on Thursday afternoon, as the US agreed to host a meeting next week to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel and Lebanon, according to a State Department official. But the Israeli leader also reiterated his position that ongoing attacks in Lebanon were not part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal announced on Tuesday. 

The Strait of Hormuz — which Trump has repeatedly insisted Iran reopen — remains effectively shut, as shipowners await clarification on its status. Traffic is still a fraction of pre-war levels, despite state media reporting that Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization published two safe routes for shipping.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father was killed in the early days of the war launched by the US and Israel, also repeated demands for war reparations — a likely nonstarter for US negotiators. Khamenei also said in a statement on Telegram that Iran “will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” though it was unclear if he was referring to past Iranian demands to retain control of the waterway that the US has rejected.

The geopolitical developments on Thursday sowed new doubts about the prospects of securing a long-term deal to end a war that has engulfed the Middle East. 

The US and Iran appeared to pause most strikes after fighting continued in the region on Wednesday after the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday evening. But on Thursday evening, the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry said fresh drone attacks were carried out by Iran and its proxies, which targeted a number of vital facilities in the country.

Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the US delegation in discussions scheduled for Islamabad on Saturday, with Iranian officials due to arrive in the Pakistani capital on Thursday.

Yet Israel’s ongoing campaign against Tehran-aligned Hezbollah risks undermining the negotiations. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel’s strikes in Lebanon are a “clear violation” of the ceasefire and “will render negotiations meaningless.” 

Israel’s military on Thursday told residents in eight Beirut neighborhoods to leave ahead of strikes, after a major operation that killed more than 300 people the previous day. 

Trump vowed to keep troops in the Gulf ahead of the talks in Pakistan, “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He added that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open and safe to use. 

Iran effectively shut down Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows — after the US and Israel began airstrikes on Feb. 28. Control over the waterway, and safe passage for tankers, will be a major focus of talks as fears linger of a global energy supply crisis. 

Oil prices jumped towards the end of the session on news that Saudi Arabia’s production capacity was cut by more than half a million barrels a day due to a spate of attacks on energy facilities. Prices were choppy throughout the session and US crude for May rose nearly 4% to end the session close to $98 a barrel while Brent crude for June settled near $96 a barrel.  

With only sporadic attacks reported in Iran and across the Middle East, the international focus shifted to a bit toward Lebanon, where Israel revived its campaign against Hezbollah after the militant group started firing rockets across the Israel-Lebanon border at the start of the war.

The two sides previously engaged in a full-blown conflict for about two months in 2024 before a tentative ceasefire in November of that year. The Lebanese government has pledged to disarm Hezbollah, but hasn’t succeeded — with the powerful group refusing. 

Vance said Israel had agreed to “check themselves a little bit in Lebanon” to support negotiations. Hezbollah said it fired rockets toward Israel in response to Wednesday’s assault.

The European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said Israel’s right to defend itself doesn’t justify “inflicting such massive destruction in Lebanon,” warning the offensive is hurting peace talks.

The war in the Middle East has claimed more than 5,500 lives, according to governments and non-governmental agencies. More than 3,600 people have been killed in Iran, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates, while more than 1,700 people have died in Lebanon, the government says. 

Israel said it’s killed more than 1,400 Hezbollah militants, including 200 on Wednesday.

Israel has reported about three dozen deaths, and a similar number have been killed across the Gulf Arab nations, government reports show. There have also been several dozen casualties in Iraq. Thirteen American troops have been killed, according to US Central Command.

A big stumbling block to any peace talks remains the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Only three ships were observed leaving the region on Wednesday, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows. In normal times, about 135 vessels cross daily. 

Iran’s safe routes in Hormuz were established to avoid the potential presence of mines in the primary traffic lanes and all ships are asked to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps until further notice, state-run Nour News reported. 

More than 800 freighters are stuck inside the Gulf, mostly waiting to leave, and owners and insurer groups have warned that more details will be needed to determine if safe transit is possible. 

Trump has made conflicting claims about a possible peace deal, including suggesting a joint US-Iran toll system for ships in Hormuz. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said that proposal hadn’t been accepted.

Trump also said Iran had undergone a “regime change,” even though there have been no signs this week that new leadership had taken hold. He indicated the US would use its 15-point plan as the basis of negotiations with Tehran, while remaining open to sanctions relief.

Iran’s demands include its continued control of Hormuz, acceptance of its nuclear-enrichment activities, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, and a withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, according to a statement by its Supreme National Security Council carried by state media.

(Updates with Trump comment in third paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The undertaking makes ConocoPhillips just the second major US oil company to publicly disclosed an on-the-ground inspection in Venezuela, home to some of the world’s biggest crude reserves.

The purpose of the trip is to “better understand the potential for in-country oil and gas opportunities,” Dennis Nuss, a spokesman, said in a statement on Thursday. “We will evaluate Venezuela against other international opportunities as part of our disciplined investment framework.”

Despite President Donald Trump’s call earlier this year for US drillers to help revive the Venezuelan oil sector, ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance has been telling investors his main priority is recouping roughly $12 billion it’s owed after its holdings in the South American nation were nationalized in 2007.

Exxon Mobil Corp., which also quit the country after asset seizures by the late dictator Hugo Chavez, said two weeks ago that it sent a team to assess Venezuelan opportunities. 

Rebuilding Venezuelan oil output to 3 million barrels a day would require “probably hundreds of millions of dollars” over a long time horizon, Dan Ammann, upstream president at Exxon, said during the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston last month.

A lot has to happen to pave the way for more foreign investment, Lance has said on several occasions. 

“We’re trying to be constructive and help the administration think through what’s needed to incentivize the investments that will go into Venezuela,” Lance said during the CERAWeek event. “We have to see what’s the pathway to starting to recover some of what’s owed us.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“China is the winner in this war from an economic standpoint, from an energy mix standpoint,” he said in an interview.

The prediction feeds into a complex picture. Bruegel, a think tank, says China’s reliance on oil imports from Iran is set to pose a “severe test” for its energy strategy. At the same time, the country’s status as the world’s largest producer of clean tech puts it in a unique position to help governments now desperate to wean themselves off Middle East imports, according to the Deutsche Bank executive. 

Longer term, Tang says “everybody knows” that the world “cannot rely on oil.” 

He says it’s a realization that will force a reset in Asia, the biggest importer of Middle Eastern oil. Japan, Korea and India are now all more likely to look for ways to diversify their energy mix, and the equipment needed to achieve that diversification will inevitably come from China, Tang said.

As the conflict in the Middle East veers between existential threats and a fragile ceasefire, volatility in oil and gas prices has skyrocketed. The promise of a two-week break from fighting offered relief on Wednesday morning, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz listed as a condition of the deal. 

For now, however, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, pushing up the price of Brent crude. “The situation remains fluid,” analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note. And by Thursday, optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire had faded after Tehran warned that some terms of the deal had been breached.

Against that backdrop, governments will continue to work toward energy independence. China, which remains the world’s largest consumer of coal, is rapidly building out its clean-tech sector as part of its goal of achieving energy independence. 

Low-carbon sources now account for close to 40% of the country’s electricity generation, compared with about 25% a decade ago, according to a February report by Ember. And renewables make up almost 50% of installed power capacity, Barclays Plc estimates.

“A decade of renewable build-out and electrification have materially reduced China’s exposure to energy shocks,” a Barclays team led by Jian Chang, the bank’s chief China economist, said in an April 8 note to clients. The upshot is that oil and gas are “now playing only a minor role in power generation” for the country, she said.

China’s long-term “focus on electrification” is making it more resilient to energy price shocks, according to a Lombard Odier note sent to clients this month. And its build-up of strategic oil reserves has created an effective short-term buffer against rising oil prices, the Lombard Odier note said.

Tang says a new wave of demand for renewable energy would sift out clean-tech winners, after years of hyper-growth drove down prices to levels at which some companies could no longer compete.

“The issue in China is that the competition is fierce,” Tang said. “The winners will be those guys with healthy balance sheets, with healthy fundamentals, with pricing power.”

Equipment exporters with margins that can absorb higher costs — and a cash flow that allows them to do mergers and acquisitions — will fare best, Tang said. He also says Deutsche is advising its private banking customers to seek out companies that are less indebted than their peers. 

“For a lot of those infrastructure companies, unfortunately, the gearing ratio is high because they are small cap, and they need money from a bank,” Tang said. 

A typical client portfolio tends to have about 10-15% of their Chinese equity allocation in clean energy stocks, he said. “We try not to be massively overweight because there is still a lot of volatility.”

Chinese stocks were among the top performers on the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index in the first few weeks of the war, but the gains have since evaporated for most. 

Shares of Sungrow Power Supply Co., one of the world’s largest energy storage firms, climbed more than 20% after the Iran war began before shaving off nearly a third of their value due to disappointing earnings. 

Wind power generation equipment makers Goldwind Science & Technology Co. and Ming Yang Smart Energy Group have also seen their stocks mostly plunge in recent sessions. Meanwhile, shares of battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. and electric car maker BYD Co. are still higher by about 28% and 8% in Hong Kong, respectively.

To deal with over-supply in its clean-tech sector, China’s government has embarked on an anti-involution campaign. Its latest five-year plan downplayed the solar sector, and it’s also canceling or reducing export tax rebates on products including solar cells as countries have called out trade imbalances.

“China is quite determined to make sure that prices stay at a competitive level and at the same time, that companies can survive,” Tang said.

(Updates with latest on ceasefire process, in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, will issue documents to guarantee that fines for companies that are unable to comply with the rules on the powerful greenhouse gas do not “constitute a problem for security and supply and that penalties have to be proportionate,” according to Ditte Juul Jorgensen, director general for energy. 

The commission has resisted weakening the law, arguing that it’s needed to combat climate change. However, high energy prices are at the top of the bloc’s political agenda, with concerns over its declining competitiveness with China and the US. The Iran war has served as another reminder of the EU’s reliance on fossil fuel imports.

The bloc would also recommend a light-touch approach to monitoring, reporting and verifying sources of emissions, and there will be no need to “track to the well, to the cargo, to the molecule,” Jorgensen said at an event in Brussels.

The EU’s methane rules, designed to curb emissions of a greenhouse gas that’s 80 times more powerful than CO2 over its first two decades in the atmosphere, have been fiercely criticized by the US government over concerns that they could hamper exports of liquefied natural gas to the bloc. The US is now Europe’s biggest supplier of LNG.

Next year, fossil fuel imports will have to be aligned with the EU’s rules. By 2030, penalties will be issued for imports that are above a methane-intensity threshold. Under the rules, companies could be fined as much as 20% of annual turnover.

Jorgensen said the view to limit fines for non-compliant companies had the support of all 27 member states. Obligations will mean that only a certain share of a country’s energy production will need to be monitored, not every molecule, she added. 

Andreas Guth, secretary general of the industry lobby Eurogas, said that the proposed flexibilities should be accompanied by a “stop-the-clock” suspension of the rules to allow companies more time to adjust to the changes.

“It’s good that we have discussions on penalties,” Guth said, but the market needs to see it in place before it can respond “because your legal compliance department doesn’t have anything tangible to go on.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Cospearl Lake, linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping, and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, appeared to be traveling east early on Thursday morning at near top speeds, according to ship-tracking data, before coming to a virtual halt. Both are signaling Chinese ownership on their tracking systems, a move typically done for safety during Iran-approved transits.

The Chinese oil tankers are part of a growing armada amassing at the entrance to the strait, off the United Arab Emirates. Indian-flagged Desh Vibhor is fully laden with crude off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah, signaling government of India ship and crew in their destination. A Saudi Arabian-flagged VLCC, the Jaham, is also steaming east toward a nearby holding area off Dubai.

The Chinese vessels’ position is indicative of a desire to cross the strait, but not a guarantee, as others have approached only to turn back at the last moment.

Iran and the US agreed to a pause in fighting in exchange for the opening of the strait, but there is still little clarity on what was agreed. Continued attacks — including Israeli strikes in Lebanon — have raised questions about the effectiveness of the agreement. Since the truce — and supposed opening of the strait — was agreed a day ago, there has also been little change in traffic.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING”. Iran, by contrast, has said its armed forces will control traffic and has since sent broadcasts informing ships the strait remains closed. It has also designated safe routes for vessels entering and exiting the strait.

Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., one of the world’s largest shipping companies, is among the groups trying to understand the fine print and arguing it needs to see “sustainable stability” before sending its vessels through.

“How it is implemented in the water, that is something we really need to understand,” Jotaro Tamura, the firm’s new president, told Bloomberg Television.

The Chinese ships are already notable for their cargoes. One is carrying Iraqi crude, and the other Saudi. While Iran has referred to “brotherly” Iraq, most other transits have been granted to friendly nations.

Cospearl Lake’s passage, however, would also mark the first such attempt by a Cosco oil tanker in the six-week war. Cosco, like other large shipping firms, tends to be conservative, and its crude carriers have been trapped since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, prompting Iran to all but close Hormuz in retaliation.

The two very-large crude carriers idled in the middle of the Gulf as part of a group of tankers for most of March. On Thursday morning, they began sailing eastward at speed, before eventually slowing and stopping just at the entrance to the strait. 

Late last month, two Cosco container ships took a similar route before veering north along the Iranian coast, a path pursued by others that have made successful, Tehran-sanctioned exits. Beijing later acknowledged that it had worked with relevant parties to extract Chinese ships from the Gulf, but did not name the vessels.

Cospearl Lake is operated by Cosco Shipping Energy Transport, maritime database Equasis shows. Its registered owner is Cospearl Lake Maritime Ltd., which shares the same address as CSET. The ship entered the gulf in late January, spending some time ballasting off Dubai, before sailing to Iraq’s Basrah to pick up nearly 2 million barrels of crude in early March.

China Cosco Shipping Corp., CSET’s parent company, didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

He Rong Hai sailed into the gulf just before the war broke out in late February. It picked up its more than 2 million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah terminal in early March.

Its owner is listed as Hainan Herong Shipping Co., according to Equasis, which shares the same address as its manager Shanghai Yucheng Shipping Co. No contact details were listed for either.

(Adds Mitsui OSK in paragraph six and seven, details on tanker movements.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Warning that “conditional passage is not passage,” H.E. Dr Al Jaber emphasised that the current restrictions on the waterway imposed by Iran are not merely a regional dispute, but a direct assault on the principles of international trade and global economic stability.

Restricted, conditioned and controlled access

“This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” H.E. Dr Al Jaber wrote on LinkedIn on Thursday.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s key arterial route for transporting 20% of global crude from major suppliers. More than 16.5 million barrels of oil a day flowed through the Strait before the Middle East conflict, according to Reuters. Exports from Qatar, the world’s third-largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, must transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait also serves as a strategic chokepoint for crude exports and refined petroleum products such as diesel from the Gulf.

“The Strait was not built, engineered, financed or constructed by any state. It is a natural passage governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees transit as a matter of right; not a privilege to be granted, withheld or weaponized,” H.E Dr Al Jaber said, adding: “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name. The Strait must be open — fully, unconditionally, and without restriction.”

He observed that energy security and global economic stability depend on the Strait, and the weaponisation of this vital waterway cannot stand. “This would set a dangerous precedent for the world — undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy,” he said.

“An estimated 230 vessels sit loaded with oil and ready to sail. They, and every vessel that follows, must be free to navigate this corridor without condition. No country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms.

“Energy producers must be able to swiftly and safely restore production at scale. At ADNOC, we have loaded cargoes and we will expand production within the constraints of the damage we have suffered. We have a responsibility to our customers and our partners to move them, as long as the safety of our people is ensured,” H.E. Dr Al Jaber said.

Early on Wednesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that is expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is subject to Iran reopening the Strait, and will allow an agreement “to be finalised and consummated.”

As the final cargoes that transited the Strait before the conflict begin to reach their destinations, the global energy market is hitting a wall. H.E. Dr Al Jaber highlighted a looming 40-day gap in global energy flows that is now moving from paper-traded speculation to physical reality.

“Markets remain at a critical crossroads. The final cargoes that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations. This is where the paper traded markets are meeting physical reality, and the 40-day gap in global energy flows is truly exposed.

“The immediate priority is clear: close that gap. Restore the more than 20% of globally traded energy that flows through this corridor. Rebalance markets. Ease the pressure on prices and the cost of living. This is particularly urgent for Asia, where 80% of these cargoes are bound and half the world's population lives,” H.E. Dr Al Jaber said.

Delays deepen the disruption

Warning that every day the Strait remains restricted, the consequences compound, he said: “Supply is delayed, markets tighten, prices rise. The impact is felt beyond energy markets, in economies, industries and households worldwide. Every day matters. Every delay deepens the disruption.”

H.E. Dr Al Jaber was also clear about the UAE’s consistent position during the conflict and the ensuing ceasefire: “The UAE has reiterated its position that following the substantial and illegal attacks on UAE civil and energy infrastructure, Iran must be held accountable and fully liable for damages and reparations. Stability now depends on restoring real flows. Not partial access, not temporary measures, not controlled passage, but full and reliable supply. That is how we slow the economic shockwave already moving through the system.”

Three mid-sized tankers are scheduled to deliver US oil to Japan from late April through May, with two already transiting the Panama Canal and moving into the Pacific Ocean, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The third, Aframax Seaways Yosemite, is nearing the canal from the Caribbean.

US oil is typically delivered to Japan on very-large crude carriers, which have the capacity to carry 2 million barrels, but are too big to traverse the Panama Canal and need to sail around Africa’s southern tip to get to Asia. There are at least four VLCCs currently taking this route to Japan from America, according to the ship-tracking data.

The use of the smaller tankers signals the urgency of some Japanese refiners that are seeking to secure supplies. While the vessels can get to the Asian nation much quicker — about 30 days through the Panama Canal compared with around 50 days via Africa — they only carry a fraction of the crude of a VLCC.

An Aframax can haul as much as 800,000 barrels of crude, while a Suezmax can carry around 1 million barrels. The Otis, one of the tankers that have cleared the Panama Canal and is scheduled to deliver oil to Chiba on Japan’s west coast later this month, is a suezmax class vessel.

Japanese refiners have purchased bumper volumes of US crude since the Iran war started in late February, snapping up millions of barrels for delivery across June and July as concerns about Middle East supply rippled through the market. The nation has also relied on ship-to-ship transfers of oil far from the Middle East to secure supplies and keep its tankers out of the conflict zone.

The outlook for a potential end to hostilities in the Middle East could mean the use of smaller tankers to carry US crude to Japan is fleeting, although refiners and market participants remain cautious about a temporary ceasefire. Under the terms of the deal, the crucial waterway of the Strait of Hormuz is supposed to reopen, which may see more oil flows from the Gulf.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The vital waterway has been virtually closed since US and Israeli strikes at the end of February prompted Iran to tighten its control, triggering an unprecedented energy-supply crunch. Unable to guarantee the safety of thousands of seafarers and their cargoes, vessels have instead been loitering on either side, and traffic has slowed to a trickle.

Then, hours before a deadline set by President Donald Trump ran out during the US evening on Tuesday, the two sides agreed a ceasefire in exchange for a reopening. 

Key details remain uncertain: Iran says it has agreed to two weeks of safe passage in coordination with its armed forces and within “technical limitations”, while Trump announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING”. It is also unclear if the two have settled on transit payments, or when the truce takes effect.

Trump said in a separate social media post that the US would be “helping with the traffic build up” and “hangin’ around” to ensure smooth flows.

For shipowners, however, the initial news has been enough to prompt tentative optimism. The Japanese Shipowners’ Association, a major industry group, was among those which said it would check the details of the US-Iran agreement, and then relay information to members. 

Most, however, warned that more clarity would be required for ships to move, and even in the best case flows would take time to resume in earnest. In peacetime, some 135 ships transit daily, a figure that has shrunk dramatically.

“You don’t switch global shipping flows back on in 24 hours,” said Jennifer Parker, adjunct professor at the University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute. “Tanker owners, insurers and crews need to believe the risk has actually reduced — not just paused.”

Ships that transport energy make up a large part of the fleet that’s stuck inside the gulf, data from Kpler show. There are currently 426 tankers hauling crude oil and clean fuels, plus 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers and 19 liquefied natural gas vessels. The remainder are carrying dry commodities, like agricultural or metal products, or containers.

Ceasefire plans are a necessary step, but only an initial one, said Lewis Hart, head of marine in Asia at insurance broker Willis Towers Watson. “Even within a two‑week window, we expect activity to restart in a measured manner rather than all at once,” he said.

Traders and shipowners will now be closely monitoring which ships start making their way to transit the strait in either direction — especially those that would not normally have Iranian protection — and how they fare. As of Wednesday morning, more than 1,000 vessels are waiting on both sides in clusters around Dubai and Khor Fakkan.

“It’s good to see that the market is reacting the way it is, but this is day one of a tentative ceasefire,” Michael Pregent, a former US Intelligence advisor, told Bloomberg Television. “We are likely to see the regime control who moves through, who is charged what, and who is denied.”

The first two ships to attempt an exit since the announcement appear to be sailing as a pair toward Iran’s Larak and Qeshm islands on Wednesday morning, ship-tracking data show. One of them is the Tour 2, a US-sanctioned Suezmax that’s flagged to Iran. 

Sailing next to the tanker is a Greek-owned bulk carrier, NJ Earth, whose voyage history within the Persian Gulf suggests either spoofing to hide location or interference by electronic warfare. There were no contact details listed on database Equasis for its owner, NJ Earth Marine Ltd., and manager, NJ Trust Marine Ltd. 

Movement of LNG ships will also be particularly closely monitored, as no loaded carrier has made it through the strait since the war began and one recent attempted transit ended in a last-minute U-turn. About 20% of global LNG traffic went through Hormuz last year.

According to an International Maritime Organization tally at end March, some 20,000 civilian seafarers are stuck onboard these ships and the other utility and support vessels. Those crew members have been facing dwindling supplies, fatigue and psychological stress, the United Nations agency warned.

(Updates with latest Trump comments in fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent fell as much as 16% before trading around $94 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slumped the most in almost six years and was last near $96. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is subject to Iran reopening the strait, and will allow an agreement “to be finalized and consummated.”

Iran accepted Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal, with safe passage through the strait possible in coordination with the nation’s armed forces for two weeks, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. Israel also agreed to the pause in fighting, according to a White House official.

The current plan includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported, citing a regional official. The US will help with traffic buildup in the waterway, Trump said. US and Iranian delegates are invited to meet in Islamabad on Friday to further negotiate a “conclusive agreement,” Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X.

“It would take something truly tremendous for us to get back down below $80 a barrel,” Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at Prestige Economics LLC, told Bloomberg TV. “But almost anything going wrong in these ceasefire talks could very quickly put us back above $100.”

Refined product prices also fell, with benchmark European diesel futures dropping as much as 23% — their biggest decline in more than four years. Futures tied to Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude dropped 19%, the most since the contract’s launch in 2021.

The near-complete closure of the vital waterway — which normally sees the transit of about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas — has roiled energy markets, with WTI still up more than 40% since the conflict started at the end of February. The curtailment of shipments is expected to leave more than 9 million barrels a day of oil output from key Middle Eastern producers shut in during April, according to US government estimates.

“This was a market that had been starved of good news,” said Josh Gilbert, an analyst at eToro Ltd. “We’ve seen an instant selloff in crude, pulling back 16% to under $100 as markets price in the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. It goes to show how much geopolitical risk was baked into crude, and how quickly it can unwind when there’s a credible path to de-escalation.”

The de-escalation saw volumes surge. Around 240,000 Brent contracts changed hands in the first hour of trading of the global benchmark, while a typical session may see just a few thousand lots within that time period.

Physical traders remain cautious, waiting for clearer signs the ceasefire will hold before seeking cargoes from the Gulf. Meanwhile, shipowners said they needed to see vessels safely exit the region before sending in tankers. At present, there are more than 800 ships that have been trapped by the war.

“Oil can fall further as key details of a ceasefire deal are provided to the market,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “How much Iran pushes its hand will be closely watched and may limit further material falls in oil prices.”

Trump’s ceasefire announcement came about 90 minutes before his initial deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or face a massive bombardment. The lead-up was marked by military escalation and bellicose threats from the US president, including a post saying “a whole civilization will die tonight.”

Earlier in the day, American forces struck sites on the Islamic Republic’s Kharg Island similar to those that were hit in a round of attacks last month, but didn’t target energy infrastructure, according to US officials.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The amount of solar power generated without being delivered to customers rose to 9.2% in January and February, from 6.1% in the same period last year, according to the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center. For wind, curtailments rose to 8.5%, from 6.2%.

Those rates are pushing up against the ceiling raised by the government in 2024 — a clear signal that the grid is struggling to absorb all the extra power from the rapid growth in renewables. 

Two years ago, the authorities allowed curtailments to rise to 10% from 5% for energy-rich regions, enabling record-breaking installations through 2024 and 2025. But persistent grid congestion and an oversupply of renewable power during off-peak hours has made the curtailment rate an increasingly urgent issue, threatening the financial viability of projects. 

Large renewables hubs in sparsely populated inland regions like Tibet and Gansu, which rely on power lines stretching thousands of kilometers to China’s eastern megacities, face the worst curtailment rates.

There are seasonal factors behind the drop off in renewables utilization early in the year, according to Guosheng Securities Inc. It’s often windier in winter, while the daily window for solar generation is narrower. There’s also less industrial demand for electricity over the Lunar New Year holiday.

The situation is particularly concerning for solar power, which has already seen weaker installation growth this year. The slowdown could mark a turning point for the industry. The top solar lobby forecasts annual installations could fall to as low as 180 gigawatts, from the record 315 gigawatts delivered in 2025.

China has two levers to pull to keep the clean energy boom on track. It needs to keep spending more to expand and upgrade the grid, which the government has recognized as a priority in its latest five-year plan. More immediately, energy storage systems can plug the gap. Although the exponential growth in that market is expected to tail off given the amount of capacity already built, some companies are still projecting shipments to more than double this year. 

On the Wire

China’s yuan hit a three-year high as the pause in Middle East hostilities eased geopolitical tensions. 

Zimbabwe is considering ending a ban on lithium concentrate exports if miners agree to pay an extra tax on shipments and set up additional processing plants by the start of next year.

China will set up a sweeping new mechanism to ensure the security of its supply chains, targeting espionage and allowing Beijing to retaliate against foreign entities if they impose curbs on trade.

China’s central bank bought the most gold in more than a year in March, demonstrating that a key pillar of support for the precious metal remains intact as prices come under pressure amid the Iran war.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Wednesday, April 8

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• EARNINGS: Huayou Cobalt

Thursday, April 9

• China to release March aggregate finance & money supply data by April 15
• China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report

Friday, April 10

• China’s inflation data for March, 09:30
• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent’s sharp sell-off — shedding more than $15/barrel within hours of the announcement — reflects a market eager to price out risk before the underlying conditions have meaningfully changed.

At best, what US President Donald Trump has secured is time. Not resolution, not de-escalation in any durable sense — but a narrow window to test whether diplomacy can even get off the ground.

The structure of the ceasefire itself underscores that fragility. It is limited in scope, applies only to US-Iran hostilities, and leaves other active fronts — most notably Israel’s posture towards the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants — unresolved. That alone introduces a material risk that the truce could fracture before negotiations meaningfully begin.

More importantly for oil markets, the agreement does little to guarantee a rapid or full normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz — the single most critical artery for global oil and LNG trade.

A reopening in name, not in function

The ceasefire is explicitly tied to a conditional reopening of Hormuz. But transit during the two-week window is subject to coordination with Iranian military forces and constrained by what Tehran has described as “technical limitations.” This is not a return to freedom of navigation. It is a managed, controlled and potentially rationed system of passage.

In practical terms, that means bottlenecks.

Nearly six weeks of disruption have left a substantial backlog of vessels — hundreds of laden tankers, LNG carriers and other merchant ships waiting to exit the Gulf. Even under pre-war conditions, clearing such a queue would take close to two weeks. Under a controlled transit regime, with prioritisation likely given to specific countries or cargoes, the process could stretch further.

Fresh inflows are even more uncertain. Charterers and shipowners will need to weigh security risks, insurance availability and political alignment before committing vessels into Hormuz. Countries that have maintained bilateral channels with Tehran may move first, but this will not resemble a broad-based restoration of flows.

Therefore, an assumption that supply disruptions will quickly unwind would be premature.

Operational leverage

The mechanics of the ceasefire suggest that Iran and Oman retain effective control over the tempo and scale of maritime traffic.

By conditioning passage on coordination with its armed forces, Tehran has preserved — and arguably formalised — a supervisory role over one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints. Even if framed as a temporary wartime measure, this sets a precedent that will be difficult to reverse in negotiations.

There is also the prospect of transit fees or toll-like mechanisms emerging as part of the arrangement — a highly contentious issue that would reshape the economics of oil flows if extended beyond the immediate crisis.

For now, this translates into a simple reality: flows will remain constrained, opaque and politically mediated.

That is not a bearish setup.

Perhaps the most striking feature of the ceasefire is not operational, but diplomatic.

President Trump’s decision to accept Iran’s 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations effectively shifts the starting line away from Washington’s own demands and closer to Tehran’s position.

That is unusual in any negotiation — more so in the context of an active conflict where the US retains overwhelming military superiority but limited leverage over Hormuz.

Iran’s framework calls for sweeping concessions: sanctions relief, security guarantees, war reparations, and recognition of its strategic position in the region. It also seeks to institutionalise control over Hormuz and embed any agreement within a binding international framework. Crucially, it avoids explicit commitments on uranium enrichment — the central fault line in pre-war diplomacy — while preserving Tehran’s ability to revisit the issue later.

The gap with Washington’s position remains wide. Bridging it within two weeks would be ambitious under stable conditions; in a live conflict environment, it borders on improbable.

This raises a more uncomfortable question for markets: has Washington tacitly acknowledged Tehran’s leverage in this standoff? Whether tactical or strategic, the optics are clear. Iran has succeeded in setting the terms of engagement — at least for now.

Markets are pricing hope, not reality

The sell-off in crude reflects a collective bet that the ceasefire marks the beginning of de-escalation.

But the underlying dynamics point to a far more complex and fragile equilibrium.

Shipping flows will remain constrained. Negotiations will be contentious and slow-moving. The risk of breakdown — either in talks or in the ceasefire itself — remains elevated. And key actors outside the US-Iran framework retain the ability to disrupt the process.

In that context, the sharp correction in prices looks less like a calculated recalibration and more like an emotional response. A more measured view would see crude finding a volatile equilibrium as markets reassess physical flows rather than headlines. The balance of risks still leans towards disruption, not normalisation.

The ceasefire has paused the escalation clock. It has not reset it. And for oil markets, that distinction matters.