The Frankfurt Regional Court is inclined to side with Deutsche Bank in an action the lender brought against industrial gases group Linde Plc, Presiding Judge Corinna Distler said at a hearing in the case on Tuesday. 

The tribunal’s view is preliminary and may still change after more deliberations, she added. A ruling was scheduled for Oct. 20. Any judgment in the case can be appealed.

Deutsche Bank is seeking about €260 million from Linde over an aborted project for which the bank guaranteed. The Frankfurt-based lender argues Linde must reimburse it after Russian courts seized some of the bank’s local assets following the collapse of a €10 billion gas project. The litigation is part of a broader legal battle between Linde and its financing banks.

Deutsche Bank said it welcomes the court’s preliminary remarks, declining to comment further. It has disclosed that roughly €244 million of its Russian assets were confiscated. 

Linde said in a statement that the case touches on fundamental questions of European sanctions law. 

“This proceeding is the first step in deciding how EU sanctions are applied and risks are allocated,” it said. “We remain convinced that the legal arguments are on our side and will rigorously defend our position.”

The dispute dates back to Linde Engineering’s role in a project to build gas processing and liquefied natural gas facilities for RusChemAlliance, a Gazprom-backed venture, near St. Petersburg. A number of banks, including Deutsche Bank, issued advance-payment and performance guarantees supporting the 2021 contracts.

After the European Union imposed sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Linde halted works on the project. The banks declined to pay under the guarantees, saying they’re barred by EU sanctions. Russian courts subsequently seized about €1 billion of assets belonging to the lenders in Russia.

“The way we see it, it’s not necessarily the case that Deutsche Bank had to bear the risk,” Distler said. “Both sides knew that things can get very arbitrary when you start a dispute with Russian companies.”

Deutsche Bank has disclosed that roughly €244 million of its Russian assets were confiscated. An attorney for the lender said in court that Linde didn’t purchase insurance for country risk from Deutsche Bank but a standard guarantee. 

A lawyer for Linde told the judges that European sanctions affected both sides in the case equally and not just one. 

Other banks that had worked with Linde have also taken legal action. UniCredit has filed a separate claim over losses of about €450 million at a Munich court, while Commerzbank AG is pursuing €98 million. BayernLB has recorded a provision of €285 million. The suits in Frankfurt and Munich were all filed last year. 

The Frankfurt case is: LG Frankfurt/Main, 2-12 O 29/25.

(Updates with statements from Linde, Deutsche Bank from fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Arboleda, an electrical engineer with a master’s degree in energy distribution and transmission, has three decades experience in the planning and management of energy markets, according to a statement late Monday from President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella’s team. Until now she had been heading power system operator XM SA. 

Colombia relies on hydropower for roughly two-thirds of generation capacity which puts it at risk from El Niño, which often brings hotter and drier conditions to the Andean country. That makes the country more dependent on gas-fired plants, which are struggling financially since they are owed hundreds of millions of dollars by an electricity distribution company which was taken over by the current government of Gustavo Petro. 

Arboleda will also be tasked with leading a revival of oil and gas exploration. The incoming administration has promised to roll back Petro’s policies which sought to wean the nation off fossil fuels. That led to stalled crude production, and worsened a domestic gas shortfall that is forcing Colombia to import costly liquefied natural gas to supply homes and industry. 

The new government, which takes over Aug. 7, will begin reversing Petro’s energy policies immediately after taking office, including by allowing new drilling contracts as well as fracking pilot programs, according to Vice President-elect José Manuel Restrepo. De la Espriella’s administration will also prioritize naming a new board to state oil company Ecopetrol SA so that it can elect a new chief executive officer, according to Restrepo. 

Colombia’s gas reserves fell to the equivalent of 5.9 years of production at the end of 2025, near their lowest level in almost two decades. Proven crude reserves are at the equivalent of 7.4 years.  

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Shipments of lithium batteries and wind turbines increased by 38% and 36%, respectively, over January-June, according to Wang Jun, deputy director of China’s General Administration of Customs.

“As the global shift toward green and low-carbon development continues to gain momentum, rising investment and consumer demand in renewable energy sectors are increasingly aligned with China’s green product offerings,” Wang said at a media briefing on Tuesday.

The growth builds on an already strong first quarter, when lithium battery exports surged by 50% from the same period a year earlier. The sustained demand reflects a global search for alternative energy sources that has been hastened by the energy-supply crunch arising from the Middle East war.

“In the first half of this year, the situation in the Middle East was tense and global supply of chemical products was tight. China, with its complete industrial system and full-chain supporting capabilities, quickly seized the sudden external demands,” Wang said, adding that the country’s exports of basic organic chemicals and primary-shaped plastics also increased by 25% and 35% respectively.

The private sector, already a dominant force in China’s foreign trade, continued to play a pivotal role. Shipments of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar products by private companies recorded a 46% increase in the first half, according to China Customs’ spokesperson Lyu Daliang.

“This shows that private companies have emerged as a key supply pillar for the global green transformation,” Lyu said at the same briefing.

Overall, China’s growth in exports and imports topped all forecasts in June, as surging chip prices and global demand for hardware needed to power artificial intelligence data centers lift trade across Asia. The government agency will release more detailed trade data, including sector-specific breakdowns, on July 18.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The global crude benchmark climbed as much as 2.8% after surging almost 10% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $80. Trump demanded a 20% reimbursement on cargoes — or roughly $30 million on full supertankers carrying oil — as US forces concluded another round of strikes against Iran that may last several more days.

Oil has rebounded to its highest in almost a month, paring a second-quarter drop of about 30%, as the escalating conflict rekindles concerns over supplies from the Gulf. Iran had managed to export at least 57 million barrels of crude during a brief gap between two American naval blockades, highlighting what’s at stake for the global oil market now that restrictions are being reimposed. 

Iran has been quietly moving oil tankers through the strait over the past few days as hostilities escalated. Six US-sanctioned supertankers transited the waterway into the Gulf of Oman over the past week with their transponders turned off, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“They were just shipping oil out at unbelievable rates,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Management. “We think we’ll hang around this $80 level, unless there’s some movement one way or another on the strait. But I don’t think we’ll go to, like, $90 or $100. And if the strait reopens, we’ll go to $60 in one hell of a hurry.”

European natural gas surged as much as 3.3% to the highest in more than three months. Before the conflict, about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. 

The Joint Maritime Information Center said US Central Command will begin enforcement of a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. New York time on Tuesday. Trump said the US will be reimbursed by the countries it’s helping to protect in the strait, citing Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.

Iran’s army targeted US assets in Kuwait with drones and struck “a hostile vessel” with cruise missiles, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing an army statement. Meanwhile, the UAE said two of its tankers were attacked in Omani waters while transiting the southern route of the strait. 

Over the past month, Gulf producers had begun marketing additional crude after the interim agreement eased export concerns. The UAE in particular proved highly successful at moving barrels by utilizing shuttle tankers sailing dark, or with their transponders off.

The UAE told OPEC that it increased crude production to 3.8 million barrels a day in June, up 1.71 million barrels from May, according to a monthly report seen by Bloomberg on Monday, after finding workarounds to the Iran conflict and ramping up output following its departure from the producer group. 

The conflict also showed signs of widening beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s air defenses engaged with ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis on the country’s southern region, Alekhbariya reported, citing a Defense Ministry spokesman. Earlier, the Houthis said a Saudi airstrike hit Sanaa International Airport and vowed retaliation, opening another potential front in the area. 

Elsewhere, Trump will support a Russian sanctions bill championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, according to a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity. That would revive efforts to penalize buyers of Russian oil and natural gas and increase pressure on the Kremlin to end its war with Ukraine. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Crude purchases plunged 41% year-on-year to 29.27 million tons, the least since October 2016, according to customs data on Tuesday. Imports were 12% lower than May, which were already the weakest in eight years.

The recent breakdown of the US-Iran truce clouds the prospects for any revival of cargoes through the contested Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East typically accounts for about half of China’s crude purchases. Still, the oil market is on watch for signs that imports have bottomed out and that Beijing will move to replenish stockpiles. 

Natural gas imports fared better, rising 3.7% in June to a five-month high of 10.93 million tons, with volumes boosted by increased seaborne imports due to a decline in domestic output and depleted storage buffers. Although the Iran war has choked shipments from a region that typically supplies about a third of China’s liquefied natural gas, the drop has mostly been offset by other sources.

China’s other main energy import, coal, saw shipments surge last month after a crackdown on mine safety curbed domestic supplies of the fuel.

Purchases in June soared 30% to 42.78 million tons, another five-month high. The blast at a mine in Shanxi province in May was the worst coal accident since 2009, prompting a nationwide review of safety practices. 

A confluence of factors, from Indonesian supply constraints to the impact of frequent rains on hydropower output, may keep a lid on imports in subsequent months. Still, China set a record for peak electricity consumption last week, and any extended heat waves could eat through stockpiles and necessitate a buying binge.

China’s other commodities trade data for June:

• Hormuz is also a channel for global fertilizer shipments. To conserve domestic supplies, China has responded by tightening controls over its exports, which plunged 48% year-on-year to 2.23 million tons, their lowest since April 2024.
• Aluminum exports, meanwhile, continued to strengthen, soaring 45% to a record 711,000 tons to help fill the global shortage caused by the war.
• Copper imports rose 3.1% to 478,000 tons, although the figure was lower than May as the US continues to attract cargoes ahead of possible tariffs from the Trump administration.
• Iron ore imports rose 6.4% to 112.69 million tons, the year’s high, on stronger shipments ahead of the end of the financial year in Australia, where most of China’s suppliers are based.
• Steel exports, which have helped offset poor domestic demand, remained strong, rising 6.6% to 10.32 million tons.
• Soybean imports increased 11% to 13.55 million tons, a 13-month high, on arrivals from both Brazil and the US following the trade truce with Washington. All eyes are on the second half of the year as Beijing ramps up purchases of American beans to meet its obligations.

On the Wire

China’s exports and imports expanded faster than forecast in June, as surging chip prices and global demand for hardware needed to power AI data centers lift trade across Asia.

Australia’s government has moved to block three China-linked shareholders of rare earths miner Northern Minerals Ltd. from voting or exercising other rights after they defied earlier orders to sell their stock.

China’s economic growth is expected to have weakened as of the mid-year mark, once again stoking questions about whether policymakers will accelerate government spending to ensure they meet their annual target.

Huawei Technologies Co.’s $11 billion clean energy empire is opening new markets.

China’s electric-vehicle industry is often seen as a success story of the central government creating global champions through subsidies, but breakthroughs came after years of decentralized experimentation and competition.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Tuesday, July 14

• China’s June trade balance and 1st batch of trade data, ~11:00
  • Crude oil, natural gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports
  • Iron ore, copper & steel imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports
  • Soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
• China to release June aggregate finance & money supply data by July 15
• OilChem LDPE conference in Suzhou, day 2

Wednesday, July 15

• China home prices for June, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for June, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
    • 2Q GDP
    • 2Q pork output and inventory
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• OilChem LDPE conference in Suzhou, day 3

Thursday, July 16

• Mysteel Asia Steel Forum in Beijing

Friday, July 17

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• China’s June output data for base metals and oil products

Saturday, July 18

• China’s 2nd batch of June trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports
  • Clean-tech exports including EVs, batteries and solar

(Updates with new material from seventh paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

McDermott has a long-standing legacy in the gas sector. How are you leveraging your execution capabilities to shape and scale the global LNG landscape?

With more than 60 years of LNG experience, McDermott continues to play a defining role in delivering complex infrastructure at scale. Our fully integrated delivery model – combining in-house engineering, procurement, fabrication, marine assets and a global supply chain – gives us greater control over cost, schedule and quality, enabling safe, predictable execution across geographies.

This integrated approach allows us to support the rapid expansion of LNG capacity in response to growing global demand, while maintaining execution certainty in increasingly complex environments. By aligning engineering and construction strategies from early project phases, we reduce interface risks and improve project resilience, ensuring we deliver reliable, lower-cost energy solutions at scale.

Drawing on your recent work at Golden Pass LNG, Mozambique LNG and Woodfibre LNG, how do you determine when to deploy modular versus self-perform or subcontract type stick-built execution strategies in challenging environments?

Our approach is grounded in flexibility. Every project is assessed based on location, labour availability, site constraints and schedule drivers to determine the optimal execution strategy. McDermott is uniquely positioned to deploy both modular and stick-built approaches, enabling us to tailor solutions that optimise constructability, cost and timelines. At Woodfibre LNG, for example, modularisation plays a central role, with major modules fabricated in controlled yard environments and transported to site, significantly reducing on-site labour requirements and complexity. 

Our approach is grounded in flexibility. Every project is assessed based on location, labour availability, site constraints and schedule drivers to determine the optimal execution strategy. McDermott is uniquely positioned to deploy both modular and stick-built approaches, enabling us to tailor solutions that optimise constructability, cost and timelines. 

- Rob Shaul, Senior Vice President of Low Carbon Solutions at McDermott

This approach enhances safety and quality, while minimising weather-related disruptions and enabling more efficient use of space. By shifting critical construction activities into controlled fabrication environments, we improve schedule certainty, increase efficiency and reduce on-site labour requirements by up to 70%. In contrast, projects such as Golden Pass LNG highlight McDermott’s ability to deliver complex, field-intensive construction scopes in environments that require extensive on-site execution using direct-hire labour. In other locations, such as Mozambique, our deep supply chain relationships enable us to deliver projects through our direct management of construction subcontractors.

Additionally, our early-stage involvement in projects such as Monkey Island LNG and the Rovuma LNG Phase I demonstrates how the right execution approach is evaluated and defined to align with project-specific drivers. Ultimately, this ability to flex between execution models and to define the right approach from early engineering through to construction is critical to delivering LNG projects successfully across a wide range of environments.

How does McDermott’s “concept-to-commissioning” approach support clients across the full project lifecycle, and how does this deep involvement position you for subsequent phases?

McDermott’s concept-to-commissioning model enables seamless integration across all phases of project delivery, from early-stage engineering through to construction and start-up. By engaging early, we help optimise design, execution strategy and overall project economics, creating a strong foundation for successful delivery. 

This approach strengthens collaboration with clients and partners, improves visibility on cost and schedule, and supports more informed decision-making throughout the lifecycle. It also enables us to de-risk projects by proactively addressing constraints, reducing rework and enhancing overall efficiency.

Importantly, this end-to-end approach fosters long-term relationships and positions McDermott for subsequent project phases. Our role in large-scale developments such as Mozambique LNG demonstrates our ability to sustain execution through complex project cycles, reinforcing our position as a trusted partner across the LNG value chain.

With projects like Woodfibre LNG aiming for net-zero operations, how is McDermott embedding low-carbon solutions and digital transformation into early-stage designs for future LNG facilities?

Sustainability and innovation are embedded from the earliest stages of design. McDermott integrates low-carbon solutions and renewable energy sources to reduce emissions and improve facility performance.

At Woodfibre LNG, the use of hydroelectric power significantly lowers emissions, supporting the development of one of the world’s lowest-emission LNG facilities and enabling approximately 30–90% lower emissions compared to conventional developments.

This demonstrates how execution strategy can directly advance industry decarbonisation. More broadly, modular execution contributes to sustainability by reducing construction-related emissions and minimising site disturbance through efficient, yard-based fabrication.

Digital tools and advanced design optimisation further enhance efficiency, enabling higher output from smaller footprints and improved overall project performance. By combining these innovations with our integrated delivery model, McDermott is helping clients deliver next-generation LNG facilities that are scalable, cost-effective and aligned with global decarbonisation goals.

The facility will be built on a 43,669-square-metre site within SFZ and is expected to support the country’s industrial diversification ambitions by increasing local fertiliser production and boosting export capacity.

The project forms part of SFZ’s strategy to attract high-value manufacturing investments that strengthen industrial value chains and enhance the competitiveness of Oman’s industrial sector. 

Supporting Oman's Vision 2040

The development will leverage the free zone’s location on major international shipping routes, its integration with the Port of Salalah, and its logistics infrastructure to serve regional and global markets.

Once operational, the plant will manufacture ammonium sulfate fertiliser, a widely used agricultural input that improves soil fertility and crop yields. The facility is expected to help meet rising demand across regional and international markets while expanding the global reach of Omani industrial products.

The investment also complements the objectives of Oman Vision 2040 by expanding downstream manufacturing, increasing non-oil exports through the Port of Salalah, and reinforcing the Sultanate’s position as a regional hub for export-oriented industries serving Asia, Africa, and the GCC.

In addition to its industrial contribution, the project is expected to create skilled employment opportunities and generate business for Omani SMEs across sectors including logistics, engineering, construction, maintenance, and industrial services. 

The facility will also introduce advanced fertiliser production technologies designed to improve efficiency and promote more sustainable manufacturing practices.

Dr Ali Tabook, Chief Executive Officer of Salalah Free Zone, said the project would strengthen the free zone’s growing chemicals manufacturing cluster.

“This project represents a strategic addition to Salalah Free Zone’s growing chemical manufacturing portfolio and reflects our commitment to attracting investments that build integrated industrial value chains rather than standalone production facilities,” he said.

Developing local talent

He added that SFZ aims to develop an industrial ecosystem where investors benefit from integrated logistics infrastructure, industrial services, and access to international markets, helping improve the competitiveness of their operations.

Dr Tabook also highlighted the long-term growth prospects for the fertiliser industry, noting that rising global demand for agricultural products continues to support investment in chemical manufacturing.

“We see this investment as an important opportunity to strengthen Salalah Free Zone’s contribution to this vital sector by leveraging Salalah’s competitive advantages as a global logistics hub connecting manufacturers with key international markets efficiently and reliably, while supporting Oman’s economic diversification agenda and the expansion of non-oil exports,” he said.

YPF Energia Electrica SA posted net income of $7.4 million on revenue of $640.8 million in 2025, versus net income of $263 million on revenue of $524.2 million a year earlier, according to a filing Monday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Buenos Aires-based firm said BNR Power Investments BV, an investment vehicle indirectly owned by General Electric Co. and China’s Silk Road Fund, is selling shares in the offering.

Argentine companies are vying to become the country’s first IPO in the US since 2019. Earlier this month, power producer Genneia SA also filed to go public in New York. 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are serving as global coordinators for the offering. BNP Paribas, Itaú BBA, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Banco Santander SA are joint bookrunners. The shares are expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker YLUZ.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Governor Mikie Sherrill signed legislation Monday to set up a competitive process to evaluate proposed projects, but also contains safeguards to protect ratepayers from potential cost overruns, according to a statement. 

The initiative demonstrates the rising interest in nuclear energy as demand for power climbs across the nation. However, it also reflects concerns about the industry’s history of cost overruns and delays. The last major US nuclear project involved two reactors in Georgia that was seven years behind schedule and cost more than $35 billion, more than double the original projection. 

“The decisions we make today will determine the future we leave our kids,” Sherrill said in the statement. 

While there’s strong interest in tapping fission to meet the increased need for electricity across the country, there’s little chance of any new reactors going into service anytime soon. It can take years to get all the needed permits and build a new nuclear plant, and only three have been completed in the US this century.

New Jersey gets more than 40% of its power from nuclear plants, but until April the state had rules in place that effectively prohibited construction of new reactors. Sherrill campaigned on addressing rising energy prices, and on her first day in office in January signed executive orders to set up a task force to evaluate developing nuclear projects. 

The legislation signed Monday includes provisions that shield ratepayers from cost overruns and delay any cost pass-alongs until a project is built and delivering electricity.   

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The company is in talks with potential technology customers to tap “mini data-center capabilities” of those systems, Powell said Monday on Bloomberg TV. 

Sunrun unveiled its distributed AI compute program last week as part of an effort by the company to tap into the demand from data centers for electricity and computing power. Shares of the nation’s biggest home solar company have slumped more than 30% this year due to investor concerns about a contraction in its main business after the federal tax credit for buying panels was eliminated.

Under the new Sunrun program, customers could make money for hosting a computer the size of a small filing cabinet. The computing capability would be aggregated and sold to technology companies racing to build out data center capacity for artificial intelligence. Sunrun said it expects to complete the pilot over the coming months and will assess the results before launching a broader rollout.

Sunrun is offering customers “another way to use that energy, if they choose, and to get compensated for it,” Powell said of the AI computing pilot program. “It could range from a couple hundred dollars to more than that in a month.”

The company has yet to release details on the economics or buyers of the distributed computing power. 

Separately, Sunrun announced an agreement with Tesla Inc. and Renew Home to aggregate more than 16 gigawatts of flexible home energy capacity for hyperscalers and utilities. The company has yet to announce a buyer of that capacity.

(Adds more company and industry context.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

That’s according to George Bilicic, global head of power, energy and infrastructure at Lazard Inc., which tracks the so-called levelized cost of energy. That’s the long-term electricity price a power-plant must get to break even. 

For combined cycle gas plants, that rose to $90 a megawatt-hour in 2026, according to a report Monday. That’s up from $78 a year earlier and the highest since 2009, the earliest year in the data, when the cost was $83.

It’s not just gas that’s getting more expensive. The cost for solar rose to $69 a megawatt-hour and onshore wind increased to $68, both up more than 10% from a year ago and the highest since at least 2014. 

The findings help illuminate why utility bills are climbing in parts of the US. High electric costs have emerged as a key issue for voters, and are a talking point in the runup to the midterm elections in November.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Global benchmark Brent rose above $79 a barrel, after rallying by more than 5% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. US Central Command said on Monday it struck dozens of targets on Sunday to degrade Iran’s ability to attack international shipping passing through the waterway. 

Iran had said on Sunday the strait would be closed “until further notice,” as the Islamic Republic’s forces launched retaliatory drone and missile assaults on American allies across the Middle East, including Jordan and Qatar. In addition, Kuwait said an offshore drilling platform had been hit and damaged.

Crude has rebounded this month as the uncertainty reinserted a war premium into prices, erasing some of the declines seen in May and June after an interim peace deal offered the prospect of more supply. The flare-up risks derailing efforts to rebuild inventories, the International Energy Agency said on Friday — a reminder of what’s at stake for the global economy if the conflict continues.

The latest flare-up remains escalatory but “well short of all-out hostilities,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “We are likely to see oil prices inch higher for as long as the strikes continue and passage through the strait remains more hesitant.”

Traffic through Hormuz — which normally carried about a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies — was almost nonexistent on Monday, extending a slowdown since tensions flared up last week. Even so, the Joint Maritime Information Center said the southern shipping lane coordinated by Oman remains available.

European natural gas also rose on concern the escalation could hamper shipments. Futures added as much as 2.7% after gaining almost 8% last week.  

The re-escalation has dimmed prospects for diplomacy. Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared the “era of one-sided deals is OVER,” while Tehran insisted Washington must honor commitments on Hormuz and the normalization of its oil exports before talks can resume. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, declared the ceasefire “OVER” but said the US remained willing to continue negotiations.

The attack on the Kuwaiti drilling facility at the weekend marked the first direct strike on energy infrastructure in weeks, and if the conflict expanded to target energy infrastructure more broadly, oil could head to $100, Kavonic said. 

In the past month, Persian Gulf producers including the United Arab Emirates marketed additional crude after the interim agreement eased concerns over exports. The Emiratis, in particular, were among the most successful in getting barrels out using shuttle tankers that sail dark, or with transponders off.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Washington’s July 7 revocation of the sanctions waiver covering Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, followed by its largest strikes on Iran since the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding was signed and the Iranian strikes on US military sites in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait over the weekend, has brought the conflict back to a familiar crossroads: renewed military escalation or another reluctant attempt at diplomacy.

Iran, which has been firing at vessels attempting to cross Hormuz through Oman’s territorial waters in a bid to assert its exclusive oversight of the waterway as it reopened to commercial traffic, had vowed a “crushing response” to the latest US strikes.

A framework for restoring stability

The latest turn of events should alarm markets but not surprise them.

The MoU was never a robust framework for restoring stability after more than three months of a conflict, during which a stubborn chasm between Washington and Tehran on key issues repeatedly frustrated diplomacy.

The final product was a poor attempt at rapprochement between two adversaries whose differences had not really been bridged. It was a vaguely worded 14-point document that was sufficient to pause the war, but not to dependably reopen the world’s most important oil chokepoint – a task that demands clarity, consistency and confidence.

The market’s belief that Hormuz was on a steady path back to normality proved both premature and misplaced. The latest events have merely confirmed what the agreement always implied: reopening the Strait would prove considerably harder than reopening diplomacy.

The seeds of the latest crisis were sown in Point 5 of the MoU, which governs the reopening of the Strait. It required Iran to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” and promised that Tehran would levy no charges for 60 days. But it failed to answer the most important question: who controls shipping through Hormuz during the interim period?

Centre of the new crisis

That omission has now become the centre of the crisis.

Two competing transit regimes have emerged. The US, Oman and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) support a southern corridor adjoining Omani waters for commercial shipping. Iran insists that vessels should instead use a northern route through its territorial waters after obtaining clearance from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Washington rejects that position outright, arguing that Hormuz must revert to its pre-war regime of free navigation.

The international shipping, insurance and trading communities need a single, publicly understood set of rules. They need to know which lanes are safe, who is responsible for security, what legal regime applies and whether a transit will be treated as lawful by both sides. Instead, they were given rival interpretations of the same agreement.

Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU

Iran’s continued strikes on vessels using or approaching the US-backed Omani corridor signal that Tehran is attempting to establish facts on the water before any permanent governance regime is negotiated. Washington’s response — revoking the oil sanctions waiver and striking Iranian coastal sites — demonstrates with equal clarity that it is unwilling to accept Tehran’s interpretation of the MoU.

Whether the conflict escalates or diplomacy resumes, the market must now factor in a more complicated picture: the Strait may not be closed in the old sense, but nor will it be reliably open in the commercial sense.

Once all the stranded tankers have escaped and the prompt barrels have been absorbed, the market will face a new fundamental reality. If empty tankers remain reluctant to return, insurance stays prohibitively expensive and rival transit regimes persist, the Gulf export system may not fully normalise for many months to come.

Layer of uncertainty

The Treasury’s 10-day wind-down period for Iranian oil transactions adds another layer of uncertainty. Iranian crude was already facing cautious buyers unsure whether sanctions relief would survive beyond its initial 60-day window. That uncertainty has now been resolved in the most bearish way for Tehran and the most bullish way for crude.

Physical balances remain comfortable for now. But a prolonged disruption to Gulf exports would rapidly swing the market from abundance towards scarcity. Severely depleted commercial and strategic stockpiles around the world mean the protective buffers of the past four months are gone.

The next move belongs to Tehran. Markets will now focus on whether Iran attempts once again to choke off Hormuz or whether both sides, however reluctantly, return to diplomacy.

A clear definition of peace

If negotiations resume, the next agreement cannot simply stop the shooting. It must define the peace. That means a clear, unified and publicly communicated understanding of how Hormuz is to operate during the interim period — who governs transits, which corridors vessels should use, what role Oman and the IMO can play, when the international Traffic Separation Scheme channels are expected to be de-mined and reopened, and whether Iran has any recognised authority to clear or charge commercial shipping.

That would be only the first step towards repairing the MoU’s fault lines. More fundamental disputes — from Lebanon's security arrangements to Iran's nuclear programme — remain unresolved and will require far greater honesty, precision and political courage than the first attempt at rapprochement. Without that, any peace is likely to prove as fragile as the agreement that sought to deliver it.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called on the European Union to reconsider its opposition to new oil and gas exploration in the Arctic, arguing that the region could play a critical role in strengthening Europe’s long-term energy security.

Speaking in Brussels, IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol urged the European Commission to take “a very close look” at its opposition to new Arctic oil and gas exploration, arguing that Norway remains one of Europe’s most reliable energy partners.

“I support the Commission to give a very close look at this issue, because it is extremely important for the European energy security,” Dr Birol added.  

“The world needs every drop of oil from Norway,” Dr Birol said, describing the country as a trusted supplier that “will not use energy as a weapon.” 

The EU currently supports a moratorium on new Arctic drilling on environmental grounds, but the policy is under increasing scrutiny as Europe seeks to strengthen its energy resilience. 

Norway, which is not an EU member but is the bloc’s largest supplier of natural gas, has repeatedly called on Brussels to abandon its support for the ban.

Norway’s mature gas fields are expected to decline during the 2030s unless new discoveries are made beyond existing producing areas, increasing the importance of future Arctic exploration.

Environmental groups have criticised any move to relax restrictions on Arctic drilling, arguing that new projects could take more than a decade to begin production and would do little to address Europe’s immediate energy security challenges. 

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that. But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

- Jens Stoltenberg, Norwegian Finance Minister

Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said the recent disruption to global energy markets highlighted the importance of maintaining Norwegian oil and gas production.

“Of course, there are environmental concerns that we have to take into account, and Norway is doing that,” he said. “But to say no, there should be no oil and gas exploration in the Arctic doesn’t make sense for Norway.”

A new electrification strategy

In Europe’s increasingly complex energy strategy, the bloc is seeking secure and dependable fossil fuel supplies as it works to eliminate Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027. But at the same time, it is accelerating electrification and expanding renewable energy to cut emissions.

Draft proposals seen by Reuters show the European Commission plans to unveil a new electrification strategy on 17 July, which aim to reduce Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels after multiple geopolitical conflicts sharply increased oil and gas prices. 

Since late February, the war has added an estimated $57.1 billion to the EU’s oil and gas import bill, according to EU data.

The draft electrification strategy proposes setting a 2040 target for the minimum share of the EU’s overall energy consumption that should come from electricity. 

While no specific percentage has yet been included, the objective is to speed up the transition from fossil fuels to electricity across transport, buildings, and industry.

The strategy would support wider adoption of electric vehicles, encourage households to replace gas boilers with heat pumps, and promote the electrification of industrial processes by replacing fossil fuel-powered equipment with electric alternatives.

Financial and regulatory measures 

To help offset the high initial costs of sustainable energy technology, the Commission is exploring a variety of financial and regulatory measures.

These include exploring mandatory heat pump installations in public buildings through revised public procurement rules, stronger procurement targets for electric vehicles, and a framework allowing member states to reduce value-added tax (VAT) on household batteries, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

Brussels also plans to launch an EU funding auction later this year to support industrial projects that generate heat using electricity and renewable energy, alongside proposals to phase out fossil fuel subsidies to improve the competitiveness of electricity relative to oil and gas.

The draft strategy describes energy independence as a strategic priority, stating that “an energy-independent Union powered by clean, abundant, homegrown, cybersecure, and affordable energy is a matter of sovereignty” and calling for a “radical shift towards efficient electrification of demand.”

But this crowd had gathered for something else entirely — a chance to glimpse cutting-edge panel and battery technology from one of the world’s top solar manufacturers, China’s Jinko Solar Co.

Economies across Asia have been hit by soaring utility bills in the months since the war in the Middle East upended oil and gas markets, prompting many to rethink power supply. In the Philippines, households and businesses have embraced green alternatives, and created a welcome boon for Beijing’s solar producers  in the process.

It has become China’s single-biggest overseas market for solar panels for the first time this year, outpacing even success stories like Pakistan. Only the Netherlands, a hub for northwest Europe, imports more.

“Electricity bills here are increasing,” said Cesar Arriaga, who lives in the city’s suburbs and came along to learn about how to buy and install panels. “I like the Chinese products not only because they’re cheap, but because they’re technologically competitive.”

China is the source of the world’s most inexpensive and most advanced solar technology, producing about 80% of global supply. But it has also been producing far too much of a good thing — meaning new markets are vital for the industry’s survival.

China’s solar exports to the Philippines more than doubled in the first five months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to Trade Data Monitor. In March alone, imports jumped 262% year-on-year. Filipino buyers have spent more than half a billion dollars on Chinese panels so far in 2026.

Granted, some of that is down to suppliers front-loading shipments ahead of changes to Chinese export tax rebates. But analysts and industry insiders say the trend will prove a lasting one, even amid on-off tensions between the two countries, including disputes in the South China Sea.

One indicator is that demand has now expanded far beyond Manila into regional centers like Davao, where enthusiasts crammed the mall, fueling a leap in revenue. In 2025, Jinko’s sales to the Philippines were equivalent to nearly 1.5GW, handing it a market share of more than a quarter. In the first six months of this year, it has already shipped close to 1GW. The popularity of higher-end N-type modules, particularly effective in hot climates, have raised the company’s average selling price overseas and its profit margins.

“Based on the current pace, we expect a more pronounced market boom and demand change in the Philippines in the second half of this year,” Jinko said in response to Bloomberg queries.

That enthusiasm may well be enough to counter efforts by Manila to tighten control of imported solar equipment. Policymakers have proposed that solar systems and components should be certified by the country’s national standards body to ensure product safety, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported. Still, unlike the US and parts of Europe, where governments have imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels and modules to shield domestic manufacturers, the Philippines has shown little sign of pursuing broader trade barriers.

In large part, that is because both sides stand to benefit from the current boom. Import-dependent Philippines gains access to low-cost renewable technology which is easy to deploy even in an island nation, while Chinese manufacturers can tap a fast-growing export market.

“The Philippines has so much to gain by embracing solar: less pressure on retail electricity price rises, less imported gas and oil, and overall cheaper electricity for customers,” said veteran electricity analyst Dave Jones at energy think tank Ember. “Electricity prices are so high. With customers fearful that prices will rise further, this provides a firm impetus to act now.”

Chinese manufacturers also want to move quickly to tap overseas markets, especially if that means profits for an industry that has been mired in losses for years. While the Philippines remains relatively small compared to China’s behemoth domestic market, rising demand here — alongside other major importers like Pakistan — is providing an important outlet for excess capacity.

Other factors help. The Philippines has long been a key adopter of renewable power, ahead of many others in the Southeast Asian region, with a strong pipeline of wind and solar projects in development as it tries to keep up with expanding consumption. The country has also been active in encouraging foreign players to enter its clean-energy sector by allowing full foreign ownership and easing access to local financing.

“The Philippines is a key renewable market in Southeast Asia, driven by a clear structural need,” said Geoffrey Jahnke, chief operating officer at Peak Energy, which develops clean energy projects in Asia. Demand for electricity continues to rise, and the country is still exposed to imported fuel price volatility and needs more “stable, domestically supplied energy,” he said.

Rising electricity costs have provided a fresh impetus to clean up the grid, given most of that surge is directly linked to dependence on imported fossil fuels. Power prices in the Philippines have jumped at least 14% this year from last year, said Robert Liew, an analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The nation now has the costliest residential electricity price in Southeast Asia, and the second-highest commercial price, according to a May report published by Ember. 

To try to cushion the shock from Persian Gulf disruption, the government began offering low interest loans of up to 500,000 pesos ($8,124) for residential clean energy. It has also fast-tracked more than 30 renewable projects.

That means cheap Chinese solar panels are now a viable way for households to save money. Payback for a residential rooftop project can be as short as a little more than three years, down from four years in May 2025, according to Ember.

As a result, the industry is booming, as seen in Davao’s crowded mall, with exports to the Philippines smashing records in March. Average weekly rooftop solar installations have risen 170% since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late-February, according to New Energy Nexus. 

The only catch is that with customer inquiries surging 582%, demand is running ahead of what the market can physically deliver, held back by supply chain shortages and limited numbers of installers.

“The supply chain was not built to absorb a demand shock of this size,” New Energy Nexus said in an April report.

For producers like Jinko and rival Trina Solar Co., it is still an opportunity that cannot be passed up.

“The market is moving from buying panels as standalone components toward planning solar as part of a wider energy system,” Trina Solar, another Chinese manufacturer, said in response to Bloomberg queries. “We are confident in meeting this demand.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The procurement process is underway, with a preferred bidder expected to be selected before the vote, Energy Minister Simeon Brown said in an interview last week. Prices for LNG are forecast to continue to come down as new supply outside of New Zealand becomes available, he said. 

The South Pacific nation relies heavily on hydropower, which leaves it vulnerable to dry years when there is little rain or snow to fill the lakes. There were shortages of electricity and prices spiked in 2024 during one such period, and the government plans to have the shipboard import terminal and regasification plant running by 2028 to mitigate that risk. 

“Every four years we have a dry year,” Brown said, adding that dwindling domestic supplies mean the country needs to look overseas. “If we can’t get the gas out of the ground domestically, we’re going to need it somewhere else. We see it as an insurance against the dry year risk, it’s about resilience, it’s about reliability, and also about affordability.

The electricity companies, known as “gentailers” in New Zealand because they both generate and retail electricity, have to work out how they will pay for the plan, Brown emphasized. “We’ve said it very clearly, it’s their obligation to fund this, because it’s their dry year risk that they must manage.”

“We’re in commercial negotiations for the gentailers to run a commercial funding model for them to pay for it,” he said.

While the long-term solution to the question of energy reliability may include renewable options, Brown emphasized that the LNG import plan was the only solution that could be done quickly, and be in place in just a few years for when there is a repeat of the 2024 dry year. 

“We’re not prepared as a government to leave New Zealand in a position where we effectively have a deindustrialization of our country, because we don’t have the molecules to be able to create electrons to keep the lights on,” he said, criticizing the Labour government’s 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and lack of planning for the transition to a lower-carbon economy. 

“Gas is critical to the transition. It is a critical transition fuel to enable that transition in a smooth manner,” he said. “We’ve ended up with a very unsmooth transition, which is a direct result of the previous government’s policies.”

The global LNG market had been expected to move into a glut this year, however the shutdown of Qatar’s export plant, the world’s biggest, due to the war in Iran has tightened the outlook. The conflict has also highlighted the dangers of relying on energy from the Middle East.

New Zealand has now built up a substantial coal stockpile at the coal-fired power plant in Huntly in case there is a dry year before the LNG plant is available, Brown said, adding that this provides “a significant amount of additional resilience that we didn’t have going into 2024.”

The opposition Labour Party is opposed to the plan, and the question is likely to be hotly debated ahead of the election later this year. The party’s energy spokeswoman Megan Woods has called it a “knee jerk reaction” to waning gas supplies, which is “excessive and rushed, and rules out viable alternatives.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, the Joint Maritime Information Center said in a note. Describing the threat-level in the strait as still “severe,” it told mariners to expect radio communications with naval forces and be aware of a danger from mines.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced earlier Sunday it wouldn’t allow any vessels to pass the strait until foreign interference ends, accusing the US of seeking to create disruptions. 

American forces struck Iran for a third time in a week overnight, after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit nine nautical miles off the Omani coast, causing a fire and forcing the crew to abandon the vessel.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas once moved — has been central to US-Iran peace negotiations. A fresh barrage of assaults early Sunday that saw the Islamic Republic target at least five American allies in the region, including Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, are putting a ceasefire that began last month under extreme stress.

There was almost no visible traffic in the strait on Sunday, with only two oil products tankers seen approaching the waterway. 

Crew from the struck container ship were rescued by local authorities, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported, while India said one of its nationals who was onboard is missing.

The IRGC halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite a warning, according to Iran’s IRIB news agency. The Fars agency also reported Iranian forces had “struck and halted a second non-compliant vessel,” though it didn’t provide further details.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Once fully completed in 2028, the two Russian-designed reactors at the Rooppur facility will be able to supply as much as 15% of the country’s electricity. The project is an audacious bet that nuclear power can meet the needs of an industrializing economy without breaking the bank, and other developing nations across the world will be watching closely.

Atomic power has undergone a renaissance over the last few years. While safety risks and heavy cost overruns saw the world sour on nuclear, especially after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011, those concerns are now being surpassed by the need to decarbonize and meet a surge in power demand from artificial intelligence and the electrification of transport fleets.

For developing nations like Bangladesh, atomic energy is less about data centers and more to do with weaning their economies off fossil fuels and reducing their vulnerability to external shocks like the Iran war. With oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf upended by the conflict, long lines at filling stations became routine, homes in the countryside had to cope with hours of daily blackouts, and factory output suffered. 

“The recent geopolitical conflicts — Iran and Russia-Ukraine — have shown that a scarcity of resources hurts poorer countries more than rich ones,” said R. Srikanth, who heads the energy, environment and climate change program at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru in India. “That strengthens the case for nuclear in emerging economies.”

The 2.4 gigawatt project has been more than a decade in the making, a period marked by a series of upheavals including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war. Those events are an endorsement of Bangladesh’s strategy of reducing its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, but they’ve also pushed Rooppur beyond its original timeline of commissioning the first unit by 2023.

The project has been inherited by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, who came to power in elections in February, and chimes with his government’s efforts to revive growth after years of dictatorship came to an end in 2024. 

The first reactor is now expected to become fully operational by the start of 2027, with the second one to follow a year later, according to Md. Zahedul Hassan, managing director at Nuclear Power Plant Co. Bangladesh Ltd., the facility’s operator.

Like other developing economies, though, Bangladesh has found that nuclear projects come with expanding costs. Under the main contract with Russian state-owned company Rosatom, the plant will cost around $12.65 billion, including the first few years’ fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. But in local-currency terms, that cost has now increased by almost a quarter since the project was approved a decade ago, thanks to a sharp weakening of the Bangladeshi taka against the dollar.

“The delay has had a massive financial implication for Bangladesh,” said Md. Shafiqul Islam, a professor of nuclear engineering at Dhaka University. “A timely completion would have not only avoided this massive cost escalation but would have also helped us trim our fossil fuel import bill.” 

Plant operator Hassan, while declining to give details on the estimated cost of generation, is adamant that it will be value for money for the country. 

“If you assess from the point of view of assurance of long-term supplies, safeguards against supply chain issues as well as the cost of generation, it’s very much competitive,” he said. 

Bangladesh is now exploring small modular reactors as a longer-term hedge against energy shocks and is in early talks with suppliers including Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Chinese manufacturers, according to Power and Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood.

“The government is looking at plants generating 300 to 400 megawatts, small enough to be built along riverbanks and deployed faster than conventional reactors,” he said. “We will not go for large-scale plants anymore because there are huge liabilities.”

Even the most committed nations will have to deal with the high upfront capital outlay, long construction times, and the risk of delays that increase costs, until new technologies, such as SMRs, mature. The benefits of nuclear power is that it’s low-carbon, reliable and continuous, making it an ideal baseload electricity source to pair with intermittent renewables, like solar and wind, for the energy transition.

“The Rooppur plant will ensure Bangladesh doesn’t need to build any new baseload capacity in the next five to seven years,” said Shafiqul Alam, the lead Bangladesh analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “That’s going to provide the opportunity to accelerate renewables installations and invest in grid modernization.”  

Growing confidence in the country’s abilities, evident from the visitors posing for selfies in front of the plant, has been instrumental in gathering public support for the Rooppur project, Dhaka University’s Islam said. 

Other developing nations may also be driven by similar sentiments, with the perception of modernity about nuclear energy adding to the hype around it, according to Toby Dalton, a senior fellow and co-director for the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

He cautioned that governments need to first put in place all the elements needed to run a nuclear plant sustainably, including a competent workforce, a credible and independent regulator, broad public approval, and mechanisms for handling spent fuel. 

“I worry that the hype that’s been built around nuclear may push countries to make some bad choices,” Dalton said. “I don’t think any developing economy wants to be a laboratory for a technology that hasn’t been proven and demonstrated elsewhere.” 

Another catch is the dearth of options when it comes to buying the technology, a deal that comes with long-term ties. The global nuclear market is controlled by a handful of suppliers, including the US, Russia, China, France and South Korea, that use a limited number of reactor technologies. 

China and Russia dominate the world’s 80 reactors under-construction, most of which are in Asia, data from the World Nuclear Association show. The two countries have aggressively pushed their existing technologies — as well as those years away from maturity — to drive interest and widen their geopolitical influence.

“For developing economies, nuclear power is also a tool for long-term national development, strengthening energy security, driving industrialization and building advanced engineering and scientific expertise domestically,” Russia’s Rosatom said in an emailed response to questions.

The challenge of high capital costs is addressed by the Russian model that provides credit to customers so the upfront costs can be paid back over 20 to 25 years, said Srikanth, at the Institute for Advanced Studies.

For Bangladesh, developments in its South Asian neighborhood have added to the appeal of nuclear. 

India has a plan to expand atomic power capacity eleven-fold to 100 gigawatts by 2047, with Rosatom building four 1-gigawatt reactors at Kudankulam, a small fishing town near the southernmost tip of the country. In Pakistan, China has supplied six reactors that constitute nearly 3.3 gigawatts of generation capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association.

“The Rooppur project has added a sense of pride among local residents,” said Islam, from Dhaka University. “They now think if India and Pakistan can do it, so can we.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In the early stages of the Iran war, concerns over local fuel availability prompted China to curb sales of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to overseas customers. Asia’s top crude consumer later eased those rules, including by granting more export permits earlier this month.

Now a flare-up in violence — along with a US move to revoke a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil — threatens an interim US-Iran peace deal and is heightening Beijing’s fears of renewed interruptions to crude and fuel supply, the people said, asking not to be identified as discussions aren’t public. 

At least two major refineries have been asked to maintain or increase run rates, the people said, despite China’s elevated gasoline and diesel inventories and a structural slowdown in consumption of both.

Even prior to the conflict, Beijing maintained strict control of oil-product shipments via a quota system. Export quotas for July won’t be revised, one of the people said.

One consequence of higher run rates, however, will be additional pressure on regional refining margins, with the spread between Asian gasoline prices and Dubai crude already falling to its lowest level since late March.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, responsible for economic planning, didn’t immediately reply to Bloomberg queries sent outside of regular working hours.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“In the short term, it’s possible” that the energy crisis worsens, Descalzi said in an interview published on Saturday, while warning that Europe will remain heavily dependent on US liquefied natural gas to rebuild storage before winter. 

Competition for oil and gas is set to intensify as inventories shrink, with Europe in need to buy about 35 billion cubic meters of LNG to reach its 80% storage target before winter, he said. Italy is ahead of European peers, with gas stockpiles already at about 70% of capacity, he added.

Europe should use the “unprecedented succession of crises” — from the Covid-19 pandemic to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict involving Iran — as a starting point to address energy security, Descalzi said.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has marked a turning point for global energy security, with the risk of disruptions at strategic shipping chokepoints likely to raise transport and financing costs as well as insurance premiums, he said, adding that there is now a “before and after Hormuz.”

Europe should diversify energy sources and supplier nations while continuing to invest in hydrocarbons alongside renewables, carbon capture, biofuels and nuclear power, Descalzi said. He identified North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia as key regions for future supply diversification.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell 0.9% to settle near $71 a barrel, but still notched a weekly gain of roughly 4%. Brent futures also fell to close near $76 a barrel. 

The two sides are continuing technical discussions, according to a US official, after US forces’ two-day campaign against targets in the Islamic Republic had cast doubt on the prospect. A Qatari delegation arrived in Iran, according to its semi-official Tasnim news agency.

The commodity briefly pared losses, before reversing, in a knee-jerk reaction after US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that “in no uncertain terms... the Cease Fire is OVER!” He also confirmed that talks between the warring sides are set to continue. 

The International Energy Agency warned in a report on Friday that renewed hostilities between the two adversaries risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later this year.

There were signs of resilience in the region’s energy flows. The United Arab Emirates boosted crude oil production to an all-time high last month, the most compelling evidence yet of how Abu Dhabi has responded more boldly than any of its Persian Gulf neighbors to the war.

“Overall, the price action is consistent with the narrative that the market doesn’t think the hostilities are going to last,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “On the flip side, oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are down significantly from last week while there are signs that China may be increasing runs.”

“But the picture after the war ends looks increasingly bleak when examining balances,” he added.

Observed transits through Hormuz have been reduced substantially by the hostilities. Traders will be monitoring output and sales from Persian Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, which is due to issue monthly allocations to customers shortly. 

Visible traffic in Hormuz remained thin after appearing to grind to a near halt on Thursday, according to ship-tracking data. At least two oil supertankers, both controlled by the same company, appeared to cross the waterway Friday on a US protected route.

Crude’s volatile week is reflected in shifts in WTI’s prompt spread, which tracks the difference between its two nearest contracts. The spread has flipped from contango, which signals oversupply, to backwardation, which denotes the opposite.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Mexican finance officials are exploring the possibility of creating an umbrella-financing package for renewable-energy projects that could be supported by more than $4 billion from development bank Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Publicos, the bank’s head said.

The government is planning to invite more private sector bids to partner with the Comision Federal de Electricidad for renewable energy and storage projects given the interest from global investors in the recent, first tender of such projects by the government, said Jorge Mendoza, the chief executive officer of the bank known as Banobras.

Mexico’s Finance Ministry and Banobras are weighing options such as creating a single vehicle to finance multiple projects, Mendoza said, adding that the government is currently in talks with institutional investors, Mexican pension funds and banks to put together financing.

Mendoza said he expected most of the financing would lined up over the next 12 months, with a chunk done by December this year.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has been ramping up infrastructure projects in the country. Still, plans have been sluggish at times and a robust pipeline of projects hasn’t fully materialized.

Mendoza said the government is now set to announce more power, oil, highway and ports projects over the next six months, benefiting from the country’s push to develop new models for public-private investment efforts.

“Everything that we worked for over the last year-and-a-half, it’s going to start rolling right now,” Mendoza said in an interview from the bank’s headquarters in Mexico City. “We need to make sure that whoever wins, or partners up with the government, has the financing capacity to do so.”

Investors have been putting more money into Mexico’s struggling electricity sector after the government clarified rules earlier this year. Sheinbaum has pivoted toward welcoming private investment in power after the previous administration shuttered an opening in the state-run energy sector.

Banobras will be able to fund as much as 80 billion pesos ($4.6 billion), funneling that money either directly into projects or through the umbrella facility that’s under consideration, Mendoza said. The financing would back the roughly three dozen projects that were awarded last month to 18 companies. Most of those were for solar-energy ventures.

Mendoza said that an umbrella vehicle would reduce costs and streamline due diligence, by piggybacking on the government’s own evaluation of projects. The umbrella vehicle could combine funds from the government, banks and institutional investors, he said. 

The group could consider cheaper financing for those sourcing materials, such as machinery or components, locally to help incentivize companies to use Mexican supply chains, he said. 

Mendoza also said that Banobras was working with Mexico’s national infrastructure fund, or Fonadin, on 18 highway projects that are estimated to cost around 212 billion pesos. He said he expected to award 13 of those projects before the end of the year, with the others following in the first six months of 2027. 

The country has seen more interest in public-private projects than purely private energy ventures, he said.

“Private players are seeing it as a way to mitigate risks — regulation risk, judicial risk — if you partner up with the government,” he said. 

Mendoza said major global funds were seeing past the noise of US trade talks and geopolitical risks that have weighed on investments. There had been a drought of projects under the past administration, and now the new efforts by the government to accommodate private capital is drawing major investors back.

“They want to take the opportunity of doing things now before the risks disappear,” Mendoza said. “I’m sure that Mexico is going to end up in a much better place than many other countries in terms of trade with the US, regional integration and competitiveness. And once there’s no risks, then there’s going to be many more players coming into Mexico and then you lose the timing and advantage of being early.” 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Nissos Kea popped up inside the Gulf several hours after its Automatic Identification System signal stopped when it approaching the waterway while the Nissos Heraclea made the opposite move, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The two very large crude carriers are run by Piraeus, Greece-based Kyklades Maritime Corp. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The level of observable oil tanker traffic through the strait has slowed in the past 24 hours, after the US and Iran traded missile and drone strikes while an interim peace deal teeters on the edge of collapse. A growing number of tankers had been shuttling through Hormuz ‘dark,’ prior to the renewed hostilities and it’s unclear what impact the latest flare up has had.

Both tankers appear to be engaged in ferrying crude from Qatar, with one loading at the Al Shaheen field and the other appearing to be heading in the direction of Halul Island, the tracking data show. Neither ship broadcast a destination while in the Gulf, although both kept their transponders on for much of their time in the region.

Partial position data from the inbound Greek ship as it crossed Hormuz suggest that it most likely used the southern route through the waterway, hugging the Omani coastline. The outbound carrier was also relatively close to the Oman side before it was going into Hormuz. 

Separately, the US dismissed Iranian claims that only Tehran-designated routes are permitted. 

In a post on social media late Thursday, Central Command said that US forces had helped to facilitate the transit of 380 million barrels since early May. A start date of May 1 would imply a flow rate of 5.4 million barrels a day. Adding Iranian flows would take the figure to well over 6 million barrels a day. 

Several ships using the Omani foute in recent days have come under attack from Iran, with Tehran seeking to limit traffic to a northerly route passing through its waters.

The only supertanker observed taking that path through the strait in the past 24 hours had previously loaded its cargo at Iran’s own Kharg Island terminal in the northern Gulf. It is the most recent of a wave of Iran-linked supertankers seen heading toward Asia from Iran’s ports over the past several days.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The country pumped 4.1 million barrels a day on average in June, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report. That surpasses the peak daily output 4 million a day in 2020 when it had boosted supply during a brief price war over OPEC+ policy, and follows its exit from the group earlier this year.

The UAE’s bold tactics since the war began are becoming increasingly apparent, from using its own large fleet to hiring extra ships controlled by Sinokor Group, a South Korean firm that now runs the world’s largest fleet of oil supertankers. Many of the vessels have operated “dark,” with their digital transponders turned off to get barrels out of the Persian Gulf unseen. 

The vigorous recovery, most of which came before a spate of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz this week, underlines the country’s unshackling from limits set by the Organization of the the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil traders have been keeping close watch on how high the UAE might take it supply after it left the producer group at the end of April.

The country had already restored its exports to pre-war levels last month, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, was also getting close as it resumed shipments from the key Ras Tanura terminal inside the Persian Gulf.

The rebounding flows, along with the precarious peace agreement between Washington and Tehran that had allowed a surge of tankers to pass through Hormuz, had helped flip world markets from tightness to signs of oversupply in key regions and erased the war-time rally in crude prices. 

The recovery picture was muddied on Wednesday, however, when President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire effectively void after the two sides traded hostilities in the region. US forces struck sites in Iran for two consecutive days, and Tehran fired upon Bahrain and Kuwait. Brent futures topped $80 a barrel earlier this week, but eased to near $76 a barrel on Friday.

The Gulf’s other major producers also increased output last month, though fell short of pre-war levels, according to the IEA. Saudi Arabia pumped 7.3 million barrels a day in June, 900,000 a day higher that the previous month. Kuwait’s increased to 1.4 million barrels a day on average and Iraq’s to 2 million a day.   

Even as crude flows have risen, refinery activity in the Gulf has been more sluggish to respond, with product exports still less than half the levels prior to the conflict, the IEA said.

(Updates with OPEC context in the fourth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

State-controlled NTPC Ltd. issued a tender to appoint consultants that will help identify potential assets in uranium-mining countries including Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and South Africa, according to documents posted on its tender website. Bids are due July 16.

The search for uranium marks the latest step in India’s ambition to grow atomic power capacity more than elevenfold by 2047, part of a broader push to decarbonize an economy that’s driven largely by coal and other fossil fuels. NTPC aims to build around 30% of the country’s 100-gigawatt target.

In December, the Indian parliament passed a law that will end a decades-old state monopoly in atomic power generation and open the industry up to private firms. The new legislation also envisages sweeping changes to the country’s liability provisions that had spooked investors.

“The scale of planned capacity addition necessitates securing a sustainable fuel supply of uranium,” NTPC said in the bid document. “Considering the limitations of domestic fuel and mining reserves, overseas exploration and the acquisition of uranium mines are required.”

At present, India relies on another state-controlled company – Uranium Corp. of India – for domestic supplies of the metal. The country’s only producer mines mainly in the states of Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh.

New Delhi has already been diversifying its overseas supplies, agreeing during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Melbourne this week to import uranium from Australia. India also buys the atomic mineral from Uzbekistan and Russia, while shipments from Canadian miner Cameco Corp. are due to begin next year.

Global uranium mining is relatively concentrated, with the top five producers accounting for almost 70% of the world’s output in 2024, according to the World Nuclear Association. Kazakhstan’s NAC Kazatomprom was the biggest producer in that year, followed by Cameco.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The board of the country’s largest oil-and-gas producer gave the green light to add 1.75 million tons of capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka, to national crude reserves, according to a filing. The cost and timeline weren’t given.

When complete, the project will increase holdings managed by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd., the state-owned entity that oversees the stockpiles. At present, Indian Strategic has underground caverns at three sites on the east and west coasts that total 5.33 million tons. In addition, two more sites are being built to add a further 6.5 million tons of space.

India is a major importer of crude oil and natural gas from the Gulf region, and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war triggered an energy crisis, as importers were forced to look for alternatives. ONGC is the first government-owned company to invest its own funds to build out strategic stockpiles, with state-owned refiners and oil producers previously building only commercial storage.

The new project is of “national importance,” ONGC said in the filing on Friday, adding that it would also develop associated facilities at the site in accordance with directives from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

The government wants reserves of crude, and liquefied natural and petroleum gas, to be large enough to meet as much as a month of domestic demand. To that end, the authorities have backed public-private partnerships to reduce the cost burden for the state, while also asking state-run producers and refiners to expand commercial reserves, and help build out strategic stockpiles.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., an ONGC subsidiary, operates a 300,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Karnataka state, and ONGC may use the new caverns in conjunction with MRPL for storage. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. — the United Arab Emirates’ largest oil company — is among companies that have leased space in the existing caverns in Mangalore.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Longi Green Energy Technology Co.’s facility in Shaanxi province is now operational, marking “a key milestone in the large-scale implementation of its next-generation cell technology,” the company said in a statement on Thursday.

The move follows a spike in silver prices to a record above $121 an ounce in January, nearly triple their level of a year earlier, on a confluence of bullish factors. As one of the world’s largest consumers of the metal, accounting for 17% of global demand last year, the solar industry has been racing to cut costs by turning to alternatives.

Copper, like silver, is prized for its conductivity. And while silver has now retreated below $60 an ounce, the red metal, which has even wider applications in the energy transition, has forged its own all-time highs, climbing above $14,000 a ton in May. 

As well as bullish forecasts for demand, the copper market is reacting to a shortage of ore worldwide, highlighting the potential pitfalls of switching materials when prices are so volatile.

Longi said it was able to get its new plant up and running within three months and that the Alloy Contact Matrix cells it produces are more efficient.

But the launch of the new facility still represents an expansion in a sector already struggling with persistent overcapacity and heavy losses. The industry’s efforts to curb excess supply have had only a limited effect, and authorities recently imposed tighter product standards in a bid to improve energy use and efficiency. 

On the Wire

China’s reflationary momentum showed signs of stalling in June, a reminder that the outlook for domestic prices is fragile as the economy emerges from deflation after an easing of tensions over Iran led to a pullback in commodity costs.

China’s central bank acknowledged the economy is becoming more unbalanced as the boom in artificial intelligence deepens a divide in growth between sectors, though it largely reiterated its existing policy stance.

China’s export-driven industrial momentum likely failed to offset weak domestic demand in the second quarter, said Bloomberg Economics, which sees GDP growth slipping below the low end of its 4.5%–5.0% target for 2026.

China purchased the largest amount of US soybeans since November, extending a wave of buying as agricultural trade between the world’s two largest economies gathers pace.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Thursday, July 9

• China’s inflation data for June, 09:30
• China to release June aggregate finance & money supply data by July 15
• Asia Climate Summit in HK, day 3
• Shanghai Platinum Week in Suzhou

Friday, July 10

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
• Shanghai Platinum Week in Suzhou

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Gulf crude production in June was still about 10.5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels, according to Goldman estimates. “While Middle Eastern producers have started reopening their shut-in wells over the last month, Hormuz disruptions could slow down the production recovery,” analysts including Yulia Zhetkova Grigsby said in a July 8 note.

The global energy market has been jolted this week by a resurgence in the conflict between Washington and Tehran, pushing Brent crude futures briefly back above $80 a barrel. Ship traffic through the strait has almost halted after US and Iran traded attacks for a second day, testing a fragile peace deal, which followed a spate of strikes on shipping in the waterway.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran was over, while the US also revoked a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales. Still, negotiations with Iran may continue, he added.

“The recent attacks on tankers highlight still elevated risks of crossing, and shippers may hesitate to cross under the currently unclear ceasefire status, weighing on near-term Hormuz flows,” the analysts said.

Goldman estimates that oil flows through the Gulf have already retreated closer to 70% of normal following the recent attacks on tankers, after having recovered earlier to more than 80% of pre-war flows within the first 10 days after the reopening of Hormuz.

At present, the risks for Gulf flows and prices are two-sided, it said. Shipments are expected to recover by the end of July if the 60-day negotiations continued, along with security reassurances for shippers and a fresh waiver for Tehran’s crude sales, but may drop further if the negotiations fail and attacks on tankers escalate.

Last month, Goldman Sachs was among banks reducing its forecasts for oil prices as flows through Hormuz picked up. Its analysts have also warned of the potential for a crude glut to reappear.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The agreement was announced during the visit of H.E. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, and Executive Chairman of XRG, to Japan, where he is leading a delegation for meetings with senior government officials and business leaders aimed at deepening bilateral energy cooperation.

The deal is the first long-term LNG supply agreement announced since ADNOC and XRG launched their integrated global LNG marketing and trading platform earlier this week. 

Growing bilateral ties

The agreement also reinforces the strategic relationship between ADNOC and INPEX, which has been an upstream partner in Abu Dhabi for decades through participating interests in several offshore and onshore concessions. The supply deal supports INPEX Vision 2035, under which the Japanese company aims to expand and diversify its LNG portfolio to provide customers with greater supply flexibility.

The LNG will be sourced primarily from the Ruwais LNG project, currently under development in Al Ruwais Industrial City in Abu Dhabi. Commercial operations are expected to begin in 2028.

The project is a key component of ADNOC’s global LNG growth strategy. To date, around 90% of the facility’s planned 9.6 mtpa production capacity has already been committed to international customers through long-term agreements across Asia and Europe, underlining strong market demand for the project’s future output.

Once operational, the Ruwais LNG plant will become the first LNG export facility in the Middle East and Africa to operate using clean power. 

ADNOC said the plant will be among the world’s lowest-carbon intensity LNG facilities, using AI and advanced digital technologies to improve operational efficiency, enhance safety, and reduce emissions.

The project consists of two liquefaction trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 mtpa, giving a combined production capacity of 9.6 mtpa.

“This SPA with INPEX marks the first long-term LNG agreement announced following the launch of ADNOC and XRG’s integrated global LNG marketing and trading platform, demonstrating how we are bringing more LNG molecules, greater market access and enhanced commercial flexibility to our customers,” said Nasser Al Muhairi, Acting CEO of ADNOC Downstream Industry, Marketing & Trading and Chairman of Ruwais LNG.

He said the agreement builds on ADNOC’s decades-long energy relationship with Japan while advancing the commercialisation of the Ruwais LNG project.

“As ADNOC and XRG target 47 mtpa of combined marketable LNG by 2035, Ruwais LNG will be a key source of reliable, flexible and lower-carbon supply for customers in Asia and around the world,” Al Muhairi added.

ADNOC Gas announced in November 2024 that it expects to acquire ADNOC’s 60% stake in the Ruwais LNG project at cost, estimated at approximately $5 billion, in 2028. 

Upon completion, the acquisition would more than double ADNOC Gas’ operated LNG production capacity to around 15 mtpa.