It might this summer.

As football fans pull on their jerseys for the World Cup, the UK’s grid operator is bracing for a sharp spike in electricity demand when England and Croatia face off in their opening match on June 17. One of the biggest surges is expected at half-time, as hundreds of thousands of viewers leave their couches and switch on kettles all at once.

This isn’t a theoretical concern. Power demand could jump by as much as 800 megawatts during the match, according to forecasts from the National Energy System Operator, higher than the 600 megawatt spike during England’s 1966 World Cup win. The phenomenon will be closely watched by grid experts, who have long relied on major power stations and storage facilities — including the Dinorwig hydroelectric plant in Wales — to quickly boost supply in times of stress.

The system they are managing today looks very different from the one that existed in 1966. Back then, coal accounted for nearly three-quarters of the country’s electricity generation. 

Today, Britain operates without coal-fired power, marking a dramatic shift in its energy mix. Wind and solar now provide more than half of the UK’s electricity, underscoring how far the transition to cleaner energy has progressed over the past six decades.

While this year’s expanded World Cup features 40 additional matches — potentially increasing total electricity demand over the course of the tournament by as much as 60% — the impact of each individual game on the grid is also smaller than it once was. Thanks to more energy-efficient televisions, electricity consumption associated with watching a match has fallen by around 20% compared with 1998, the last time Scotland qualified for the tournament.

“This year’s World Cup will almost certainly be powered by the cleanest electricity in history,” Craig Dyke, Director of System Operations at NESO, said in a statement.

Though tea may be a quintessentially British pastime, football-driven power surges are not. Across Europe, major matches have long triggered sharp jumps in electricity demands as fans make snacks and open refrigerators. In France, electricity consumption jumped by 500 megawatts at half-time during a World Cup quarter-final — equivalent to the power demand of a city the size of Bordeaux, according to grid operator RTE.

The UK’s record football-related power surge came during England’s 1990 World Cup semi-final against West Germany, when demand jumped 2.8 gigawatts. Although this remains a fraction of total consumption, the fact that it happens within seconds puts pressure on the grid.

The instance in 1990 was the equivalent to more than a million kettles being switched on simultaneously.

(Updates with background on power demand in penultimate paragraph. A previous version corrected the year in header of first chart.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, a state agency, and Anchorage-based Hex Energy were the sole entrants in the auction for nearly 690,000 acres of oil and gas drilling rights. It was the Interior Department’s first lease sale in the refuge since lifting drilling restrictions imposed by former President Joe Biden. 

It was a key test of the oil industry’s appetite to drill in the rugged frozen tundra, long prized for its oil and gas potential but burdened by political uncertainty, environmental opposition and logistical challenges.

The sale was the first of four lease sales required under President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which mandates at least four auctions in the area by 2035. It comes as Trump seeks to make tapping Alaska’s vast natural resources a key part of his energy agenda.

Combined, the Industrial Development and Export Authority and Hex Energy bought leases for five tracts through the sale.  

Trump signed legislation during his first term ending a four-decade ban on energy development in the refuge, which is estimated to contain as much as 11.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil. The protected area occupies a section of northeastern Alaska roughly the size of South Carolina.

Major oil companies largely steered clear of the first two lease sales that followed. An auction held weeks before Trump left office in January 2021 drew bids from two oil developers and Alaska’s state-owned economic development company. A second sale in January 2025 under the Biden administration resulted in zero bids, though oil industry representatives and Alaska officials argued restrictive lease terms artificially discouraged interest. 

Some analysts are skeptical about the prospects for drilling in the region. 

“Production will be challenging, and the prospect that permits will be canceled as soon as a new administration takes over is likely given that this is an easy way for a new administration to make a show of its environmental commitment,” said Ellen Wald, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and the president of Transversal Consulting.

Still, a March lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska drew a record $163 million in bids from established operators like ConocoPhillips, as well as companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., which last drilled an exploratory well in the state in the early 1990s. Shell Plc, which abandoned Arctic exploration after a costly unsuccessful search for crude waters north of Alaska, partnered with Repsol SA to secure over 40 leases. 

Environmental groups and some indigenous communities, including Gwich’in, which consider the coastal plain sacred, argue drilling threatens Arctic foxes, polar bears, caribou, musk oxen and migratory birds. 

“The diverse and sacred landscape of the Arctic Refuge is unlike any other and should never be sacrificed for oil and gas drilling,” said America Fitzpatrick, a program director with the League of Conservation Voters. “Any companies considering drilling in the Arctic Refuge would be doing so against the majority of people who support protecting this critical landscape.”

Meanwhile, local leaders, including those in Kaktovik, the only village within the refuge, support development, arguing it’s necessary for the region’s economic well-being. 

Alaska crude production has steadily declined from a peak of 2 million barrels a day in 1988 to roughly 417,000 barrels a day in March, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency projects output will rise to 450,000 barrels a day this year and 500,000 barrels a day in 2027 as new developments begin producing.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Following skirmishes overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon, Iran continued to insist on a ceasefire there before reaching a deal with the US. Meanwhile, a military adviser to Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei told CNN that “the ball is in Trump’s court” when it comes to a deal, insisting on the unfreezing of $24 billion in assets. 

US President Donald Trump has insisted for months that Iran is near its breaking point. On Friday he told reporters that “We’re having great success with Iran,” adding that “they’re in no position to have a nuclear weapon.” 

He even downplayed the higher cost of oil, an increase that has helped push up gasoline prices: “People thought it was going to be a lot worse. Today I looked at $96 a barrel, people thought that was going to be $300 a barrel.” 

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday, with US crude trading near $90 a barrel on signs that China has curbed consumption and as American crude exports helped to plug some of the lost supplies.

Without a breakthrough, the continuing standoff suggests that Tehran believes it can bear the current level of pressure longer while betting that the political pain in the US may get the American leader to concede on some of his objectives. 

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said there had been “no tangible progress” in talks even though the two sides continued to exchange messages via mediators. No commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz were observed on Friday morning, with three passages in each direction seen Thursday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  

As the conflict that began Feb. 28 nears the 100-day mark, Trump was traveling to Wisconsin for a domestic political event after a pair of rebukes by the Republican-led Congress over his foreign policy. The first was when the House voted to halt the war with Iran, a largely symbolic move that underscores the president’s loosening grip on Capitol Hill. Four GOP members joined Democrats in passing the measure. 

Congress then passed legislation to provide additional aid to Ukraine and impose more sanctions on Russia. The moves come after a surge in inflation since the war started has eaten away at Americans’ paychecks, straining consumers who were already frustrated by the high cost of living. Sixty-four percent of Americans say going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, according to a New York Times/Siena poll taken in May. 

Nevertheless, Trump on Thursday said negotiations are in the “final” stages, without elaborating. Earlier this week, Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait’s main airport. That was the worst of several flareups since a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran took hold on April 8.

Here’s more on the war:

• Iran allowed the United Nations atomic watchdog this week to visit its Bushehr nuclear power plants, while stonewalling inspectors’ demands to verify the condition and location of its enriched uranium stockpile.
• The UK and France have finalized plans to lead a multinational mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz within days of an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the waterway, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Operations at Oman’s main crude oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal have resumed after an explosion on Friday halted some loadings, according to traders familiar with the matter.

(Adds Trump’s comments on oil and Iran starting in third paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The small reactor being developed by Antares Nuclear Inc. participating in an Energy Department pilot program reached “criticality,” the agency said in a statement. The milestone occurs when a nuclear chain reaction becomes self-sustaining enough to produce a steady release of energy. 

The achievement shows that the Trump administration’s effort to remove regulatory barriers is helping demonstrate the viability of new nuclear technologies. 

The White House is pushing for wider deployment of both large, conventional reactors and smaller ones from companies like Antares. While the Antares system is still far from being used in a commercial capacity, achieving criticality is a notable step toward that goal. The company, which is initially targeting military applications, said it expects to see its systems deployed in the field by the end of 2028.

“This initial criticality is the first step on a roadmap toward producing electricity,” Jordan Bramble, Antares’ chief executive officer, said during a video briefing Friday. 

The Energy Department has set a goal of achieving the milestone in at least three test reactors by July 4 and selected projects from Antares, Oklo Inc., Aalo Atomics Inc., Atomic Alchemy Inc., Deep Fission Inc., Last Energy Inc., Natura Resources LLC, Radiant Energy Inc., Terrestrial Energy Inc., and Valar Atomics Inc. to participate in a program designed to expedite development and authorization of reactors. 

(Updates with comment from CEO in penultimate paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

LS Power is discussing paying more than €4 billion ($4.7 billion) for the unit, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information. A deal may be announced in the coming days or next week, the people said. Talks may drag on for longer and could still fall apart, they added.

A spokeswoman for EDF said the company can’t comment on an ongoing process, while a representative for LS Power declined to comment. 

The EDF unit for sale had 6.1 gigawatts of solar and wind in operations in the US, Canada and Mexico at the end of last year, and a further 19.2 gigawatts under development.

A deal would further reshape the portfolio of closely held LS Power, which recently sold some of its gas-fired power plants to NRG Energy Inc. for about $13 billion in cash and NRG stock, while it acquired some renewable assets from Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. The New York-based company also agreed this year to buy some electric-generation assets from Constellation Energy Corp. for about $5 billion, and purchased some onshore wind assets from BP Plc for an undisclosed amount.

Deal activity has picked up in the US power industry as demand surges for electricity. Manufacturers, homes and especially data centers are all clamoring for more power, which is driving up prices. The tech industry continues to chase ambitious plans to add computing capacity across the US with the biggest Silicon Valley companies forecasting more than $700 billion of capital spending this year alone. 

Meantime, the French state-owned utility is raising funds to help finance the construction of nuclear reactors in France and the UK to replace part of its aging atomic plants. That investment — costing tens of billions of euros over the next two decades — coincides with falling French power prices, putting the utility’s finances under pressure.

According to the group’s annual document, EDF expects its annual investments to climb to €28 billion per year in the 2026-28 period — up from €24 billion last year — as it prolongs the lifetime of its nuclear reactors, and boosts spending on the construction of new atomic plants and on the upgrade of France’s power grid. 

While EDF managed to reduce its net financial debt to €51.5 billion last year, the increase in capital expenditure comes as the utility foresees a slight drop in profits this year due to falling power prices.

To limit cash outflows, EDF outlined plans to save €1 billion on annual expenditure by 2030, and recently sold a gas-fired power plant in Brazil for about €230 million. The company is also seeking to divest its renewable energy assets in China, and part or all of a small unit that’s developing hydrogen projects.

To raise more funds, the French nuclear giant is also considering selling a minority stake in its Italian unit Edison SpA. However, the plan is being disrupted by the war in the Middle East and the damage to Qatari gas-export plants that supply large volumes of the fuel to Edison.

(Adds details on EDF asset sales in last two paragraphs)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent traded around $95 a barrel after falling 2.8% on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $93. President Donald Trump said that talks with Iran were going well, despite Tehran-backed Hezbollah rejecting a US-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon.

WTI has gained more than 6% this week after uncertainty over the progress of the negotiations eroded some of the earlier optimism for a deal that would lead to a resumption of oil flows through the strait — which carries about a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas in peacetime. Futures are still down about a fifth since early April — when the US and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire that ended more than five weeks of fighting.

“The move in WTI from pre-ceasefire highs of $110+ to current levels in the low-$90s was the proverbial low-hanging fruit — signaling the oil market’s relief that all-out war is over, and the region’s oil industry infrastructure has been mostly unscathed,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James. “Further price declines will hinge on meaningful recovery in Hormuz shipping volumes.”

There was no sign of progress in talks between Tehran and Washington, with Israel’s continued military strikes in Lebanon becoming a major sticking point. Asked by reporters Thursday in the Oval Office about Hezbollah’s rejection of the Lebanon ceasefire, Trump said “they didn’t reject me” and claimed “they called us” to discuss a cessation of hostilities.

In the Middle East, Oman’s main crude oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal has delayed loadings after an explosion disrupted port operations, according to traders familiar with the matter. The facility sits outside of the Strait of Hormuz and is one of the few remaining points Middle Eastern crude oil can still be loaded amid the war. 

“The mixed messaging on peace talks is not really bearish for oil yet. It probably just stops prices from running too far on the upside for now,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “Traders can take out a bit of the war premium when headlines sound constructive, but until there is real progress on the ground, it is hard to say the risk premium is gone.”

On Thursday, Trump said in a social media post that he’s “right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He didn’t elaborate on the talks, using the post to blast a vote by the Republican-led House of Representatives to halt the war. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The main message from executives at the world’s largest solar conference in Shanghai this week was an acknowledgment that the sector should shift to new areas of growth, like batteries or even projects in space. A relentless race to outdo rivals has created a glut of manufacturers that, while helping drive down solar-panel prices and fueling a global clean-energy boom, has left producers mired in losses for more than two years.

“The entire industry is locked in a zero-sum game, with only one outcome — fighting in the mud leaves no winner,” Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Technology Holdings Ltd., said at the SNEC PV+ conference. “The past strategy — centered on expanding production, cutting prices, and chasing scale — has reached its physical limits.”

Chinese solar companies have proposed a number of measures over the last few years in an attempt to reduce output and set a price floor. Their efforts, however, have been unable to curb excess capacity or deliver a meaningful recovery in prices.

Against that backdrop, executives are now focusing increasingly on energy storage as a potential escape route. The traditional concept of a standalone solar manufacturer will gradually fade as companies seek to capture growing demand for batteries, particularly from power-hungry data centers, said Zhu.

Longi Green Energy Technology Co., China’s largest solar-panel maker by market value, entered the storage business only late last year. The company is now aiming for a storage division that will grow to the same scale as its solar business within about five years.

Still, the rush into batteries has prompted concerns that the industry could repeat the mistakes that led to today’s solar glut. Several executives at the conference cautioned that investment is already pouring into energy storage at a pace that risks creating another oversupplied market. The government has also delivered such warnings.

“All those who are involved in solar are now focusing on energy storage,” Shi Zhengrong, founder of Suntech Power Holdings Co., said during a panel discussion. “I don’t know whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. But looking at the current trend, it makes me feel a bit scared.”

Some executives are looking even further ahead. GCL’s Zhu pointed to space-based solar power as a potentially vast source of future demand.

While the concept remains largely theoretical, solar panels deployed in orbit could support about 200 gigawatts of demand from space-based data centers over the next decade, Dennis Ip, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd., wrote in a note earlier this year.

In a more speculative scenario, lunar artificial intelligence facilities could eventually create more than 10,000 gigawatts of demand — roughly equivalent to current global electricity consumption.

Thirteen founding members, including GCL, Trina Solar Co. and several research institutes, used the opening day of the conference to launch the Space Energy Development Alliance. But industry groups caution that such projections remain far removed from commercial reality. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the main solar lobby, has said that most space-solar technologies are still confined to laboratories or early-stage testing.

Key Data Points:

• Polysilicon prices in China resumed a decline this week, with a shift in market sentiment driven by high inventory pressure and changing supply expectations, according to a weekly note from the China Silicon Industry Association
  • Prices fell as much as 1.7% in the week through Wednesday, with the most expensive N-type material retreating to 34,700 yuan ($5,122) per ton
  • Output in June is expected to rise to 91,000 tons, while demand from downstream wafer producers is estimated at 87,000 tons
• Wafer prices were steady in the week through Thursday, with the most expensive N-type G12 product priced at 1.17 yuan per slice
• Solar cell prices were at 0.31-0.33 yuan per watt and module prices at 0.71-0.75 yuan per watt, both unchanged from a week earlier

What Happened This Week:

• Jinko Solar Co. said it signed 10 agreements during the SNEC PV+ conference to provide modules to China, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Pakistan
  • Co. didn’t provide details of the total volume of those orders

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry proposed replacing as many as five atomic power plants by the 2040s and up to a further nine the following decade, in a revised draft of its action guideline on nuclear energy policy that was sent to an internal committee on Friday.

Japan has been slowly re-embracing atomic energy after shutting down all of its plants following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. It’s now restarted around half of its about 30 commercially available reactors, with the country’s renewed enthusiasm being driven by the artificial intelligence boom boosting electricity consumption, as well as reducing emissions.

The environment surrounding nuclear energy has changed significantly, driven by expectations of increased electricity demand due to a ramp up in the digital and green transformations, the ministry said in a document on the proposal. A growing emphasis on energy security amid rising geopolitical risks including those in the Middle East also puts additional importance on a stable energy supply, it said. 

Japan will need to replace two to five reactors in order to secure around 2.2 gigawatts to 5.5 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity by the 2040s, the ministry said. Some 11 to 14 reactors will be needed by the 2050s, to achieve 12.7 gigawatts to 16 gigawatts of capacity in total, it said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

State-owned Pakistan LNG Ltd. bought a cargo for June 6-7 delivery from BP Plc via a tender that closed on Thursday, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The South Asian country was forced to purchase it because a planned shipment from Qatar was canceled due to heightened tensions around the strait, the traders said.

The cargo was bought at $19.1337 per million British thermal units, which makes it the priciest LNG purchase for the South Asian country since 2022, according to traders.

Pakistan is among the hardest-hit by the conflict in the Middle East, as about a fifth of global LNG supply remains stuck behind the narrow waterway blockaded by Iran and the US. Pakistan depends on Qatar for nearly all its LNG and has seen rolling blackouts due to severe fuel shortages since the war began in late February. 

Peace talks between Iran and the US have stalled and this week saw the worst flare-up in violence across the region since a fragile ceasefire went into effect in early April, dampening optimism that the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened any time soon.

Islamabad negotiated with Iran for the passage of three Qatari LNG shipments through Hormuz over the last month, with the latest arriving in late May. While that’s helped ease the country’s gas shortfall, it is still receiving far fewer shipments than normal, forcing the country to dip into the expensive spot market.

Pakistan purchased its first spot shipment in about two years in April.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The policy expected to debut this month would increase the offtake price of compressed biogas, or CBG, and offer financial benefits to companies for spending on new projects, according to people familiar with the matter. The goal is to increase the number of operational CBG plants over the next several years to about 700 from roughly 200 currently, said the people, who did not want to be identified discussing confidential details.

Compressed biogas is methane produced from organic waste including paddy straw, cattle dung, food and household leftovers. Policymakers view it as a carbon-negative fuel because it captures emissions that would otherwise go into the atmosphere and creates a substitute for fossil fuels. State-owned oil marketing companies and gas utilities currently pay gas producers around 72 rupees ($0.76) to 74 rupees a kilogram for CBG, which is blended with other natural gas that is supplied to households and automobiles via pipelines.

India has been trying to ramp up biogas production for much of the past decade, but output has fallen far short of its earlier goals. The latest effort has taken on more urgency amid the Iran conflict, which has exposed the South Asian nation’s vulnerability to global price swings and supply disruptions. India currently imports about half its gas needs, and much of that comes via the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed for months. New Delhi is seeking to make alternatives to imported oil and natural gas more commercially viable, while trying to meet climate goals and tackle chronic agricultural pollution. 

Dubbed , which means “complete” or “perfect” in Hindi, the new program will be implemented by India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the people familiar said. The ministry didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

Back in 2018, Modi’s administration had set an ambitious target of 5,000 biogas plants nationwide by March 2024, with a goal of producing 54 million cubic meters of gas daily, or roughly half of the country’s demand at the time. 

In February this year, India’s oil minister said in a post on X that the country’s 134 CBG plants were producing about 930 tons of biogas per day, which would be less than 1% of its consumption needs. India’s government is aiming to increase the proportion of biogas blended with other natural gas to 5% of total consumption by the fiscal year ending March 2029.

Air pollution

The government incentives are expected to support projects using agricultural residue and food waste, including material sourced through agencies such as the Food Corporation of India, the people said.

Some of India’s top conglomerates have invested in biogas projects, including Reliance Industries Ltd., which pledged last year to bring online 55 compressed biogas plants with a cumulative capacity of 400,000 tons a year. It is targeting 500 plants by 2030. 

Japan’s Suzuki Motor Corp., parent of India’s largest car maker Maruti Suzuki, opened a pilot plant in 2024, followed by its first full-scale biogas plant in India in December and a second a month later. It plans to build a total of five biogas facilities fed by cow dung in the state of Gujarat.

The program also is intended to address one of India’s most persistent environmental challenges: the seasonal burning of crop residue across its northern states. Farmers often burn paddy straw after harvest to quickly clear fields for the next planting season. That has contributed to severe air pollution that regularly blankets New Delhi and surrounding regions.

India previously attempted to increase investment in the sector through policies such as a Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation initiative to encourage biogas plant development. Another program to convert farm waste into fertilizer and biogas is called the Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan. Those efforts helped establish an initial pipeline of projects but fell short of official ambitions amid financing challenges, feedstock constraints and concerns about commercial viability.

New Delhi’s latest policy effort is expected to improve project economics and attract private investment into the sector, one of the people familiar said. The increased price support is particularly significant because developers have long argued that existing returns were insufficient to justify large-scale investment in biogas infrastructure, he added.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that his government will spend nearly $700 million to finance coal plants in the country and increase exports. 

To support his decision, President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act, which allows the president to expand production in industries crucial to the country’s national security.

The announcement coincides with the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz since early March and rising energy prices in the US as a result of the war with Iran.

Growing coal exports

In his announcement, President Trump said the US will set aside $500 million to establish a new export centre in California and save 14 existing coal plants across Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

The first new coal plants in the US since 2013 will be constructed in Alaska and West Virginia using the remaining $200 million.

Earlier this year, the US also ordered coal plants to keep operating past their retirement age, a significant development for the North American industry.

Europe’s coal plants to remain open

Across the pond in Europe, Italy said it will postpone the permanent shutdown of its coal-fired power plants until 2038, 13 years later than the original deadline.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also said that the country may have to delay coal plant closures: “We may even have to keep existing coal-fired power stations connected to the grid for longer, should the energy crisis continue, and a shortage actually arise.”

While the Middle East conflict has accelerated the redeployment of coal, its resurgence can also be partly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the heightened Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

These events exposed Europe and the rest of the world to supply chain vulnerabilities and prompted countries to reassess their energy strategies. Data from the IEA shows that global coal consumption only grew after 2020, after declining in previous years.

India and China: the coal giants

Any analysis of the coal demand cannot be complete without discussing both India and China. According to the IEA's Global Energy Review 2024, China's coal demand increased by 1.2%, setting a new record.

The nation now uses around 40% more coal than the rest of the world, mostly for electricity generation. China's power plants use more than one-third of the world's coal.

Meanwhile, demand in India, the second-biggest coal user in the world, reached an all-time high of 5.5% in 2024. In 2024, the production of coal power increased by 5% in tandem with the rise in the demand for electricity.

In 2023, Southeast Asia emerged as the world's third-largest coal-consuming region. In 2024, coal consumption increased by over 8%, thanks to Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

The primary development driver in Indonesia was its use in the metallurgical industry. Coal power generation was the primary engine in Vietnam and the Philippines.

Coal in the world of AI

A key factor in the resurgence of coal has been the spiralling demand for electricity, with AI and data centres being major contributing factors. Research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory shows that by 2028, more than half of the electricity used by data centres will be for AI.

According to the IEA, data centre electricity use reached 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, or almost 1.5% of the world's total power consumption, marking a trend where usage has grown at 12% per year over the last five years. 

The nation’s largest power producer aims to add as much as 2,000 megawatts of data center capacity during the period to meet rising demand for AI and cloud-computing services, Chief Financial Officer Yupapin Wangviwat said during a video conference with investors on Thursday. The company and its partners currently operate facilities with a combined capacity of about 200 megawatts.

“We see AI and cloud computing as major growth opportunities for our company,” she said. “Our strong footprint and expertise in the power business give us a significant advantage as we expand into these areas.”

The company’s shares jumped as much as 5.8% to a record on Thursday, set to push their gain for the year above 61%.

The move reflects a growing race across Southeast Asia to build the computing power needed for AI. Technology companies are pouring billions of dollars into data centers as they seek more capacity for AI tools and online services, creating new opportunities for energy and infrastructure providers.

After consolidating his power and telecommunications businesses into Gulf Development last year, Sarath — whose net worth stands at $18.3 billion, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index — has been steering the company into new areas including digital infrastructure, virtual banking and AI-related services as it looks for new sources of growth.

Gulf Development has been strengthening its presence in the sector through partnerships with companies including Microsoft Corp. and Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., as demand for computing capacity accelerates across the region. It also entered into an agreement early this year with Alphabet Inc.’s Google to jointly explore business opportunities. 

The Bangkok-based company expects to fund the expansion through operating cash flow, bond sales and bank borrowings, according to Yupapin. It is in talks with lenders for loans of between $400 million and $600 million, and plans to issue about 20 billion baht of bonds in September. Gulf Development is also considering its first foreign-currency debt sale.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged in March the EU will come up with a new instrument based on 400 million existing allowances in the Emissions Trading System to finance decarbonization projects. The commission plans to spread out sales of permits from the so-called ETS Investment Booster to prevent sudden price moves, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

EU climate and energy policies are at the top of the bloc’s political agenda as fallout from the Iran war compounds fears that the region is losing its competitive edge against China and the US. The commission is seeking to balance its ambitious emissions-reduction goals with concerns among some governments and heavy industry that carbon costs are inflating already high energy prices. 

Benchmark carbon contracts traded at around 79 euros per ton on Thursday. Brussels estimates that the cost of carbon accounts for around 11% of electricity prices on average, with countries relying on clean energy facing a smaller burden. Countries like Poland, where the share of carbon costs in the power bill is as high as 24%, have led the push for a new EU instrument to alleviate the financial strain of the energy transition.

The details of the new ETS-based instrument will be outlined when the EU unveils a review of its flagship cap-and-trade emissions program on July 15. The allowances in the booster will come from a reserve for new entrants in the ETS and from an existing buffer of free permits that can be handed to companies as support of low-carbon investments, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a confidential matter.

The commission was not immediately available for comment.

The new tool is set to become part of the EU Industrial Decarbonization Bank, a broader instrument that is expected to secure 100 billion euro in funding for the energy transition, according to the people. 

Once unveiled by the commission, the ETS review will be discussed by the European Parliament and member states in the EU Council. Each of the institutions has the right to propose amendments in a legislative process that typically takes as long as two years. 

One option under consideration by the commission is to propose fast-tracking a part of the reform to bring forward permit sales under the booster, helping to accelerate the industrial shift to cleaner energy.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The firm will help customers set up and run complex renewable energy systems, assisting with project design, construction and maintenance through their entire life cycle, Suzlon’s Vice Chairman Girish Tanti said in an interview. 

The pivot comes at a crucial time for the industry, according to Tanti. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is adding financial pressure on India, a large importer of fuels whose circulation depends on the region. Strengthening energy security while decarbonizing the economy requires clean electricity to be available when needed, not just when the weather allows, and storage is considered key to the task.

“If renewables have to become the main source of our supplies, they have to be stable and dispatchable,” Tanti said. 

The Pune-headquartered firm aims to scale the portfolio of managed energy assets fourfold to 70 gigawatts in five years, it said in a statement on Wednesday. The company added it will move toward a full-stack solutions provider and establish a battery energy storage manufacturing facility by next year.

Suzlon has its own wind turbine manufacturing plants and it plans to source solar equipment in the country, Tanti said. Most wind sites can accommodate solar and battery systems and the company is negotiating with their operators to re-purpose them. 

Besides integrated renewable energy projects, wind power’s ability to meet India’s demand peaks when the sun is out also makes it an attractive bet. As a result, the country added a record 6.3 gigawatts of such installations in 2025 and additions could rise beyond 8 gigawatts in 2026, Tanti said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent traded around $97 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $96 after rising almost 10% over the first three sessions of the week. The agreement hinges on “a complete cessation” of fire from Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to a joint statement from Israel, Lebanon and the US.

Washington and Tehran have sketched out a framework to extend their truce by two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but negotiations are stalling and sporadic fighting has resumed. Iran warned it could target sites inside Israel if attacks on Beirut continue, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, which cited the country’s foreign minister. He also said little tangible progress has been made in the talks.

Oil prices have recovered from last week’s decline as renewed clashes damped hopes for a sustained ceasefire and a reopening of the key shipping route. At the same time, global supply buffers are shrinking. US figures on Wednesday showed crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery hub for WTI — fell for a sixth straight week, nearing minimum operating levels.

Even if an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps some near-term price gains, risks remain elevated while the strait stays effectively closed. Brent could climb as high as $130 a barrel in the fourth quarter as inventories tighten, said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp.

“The market is asleep at the wheel, even as we drive rapidly toward aggressive tightening in crude and product markets,” Rennie said.

President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” if Iran signs a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities, adding that some areas in the waterway would need to be cleared of mines. He downplayed the threat those pose to commercial shipping.

The strait remains the market’s central focus. Roughly a fifth of global crude supply typically passed through the chokepoint prior to the war, and its near-closure has pushed energy prices higher, raising concerns about a spike in inflation and slowdown in economic growth.

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed observable oil-product inventories below a five-year average, and crude prices could “skew higher” as US-Iran talks falter, Citigroup Inc. analysts including Eric Lee said in a note.

Separately, the Republican-led House voted to halt the US war with Iran, underscoring growing concern within Trump’s party months ahead of midterm elections. The measure is unlikely to immediately affect military operations, as the Senate would still have to pass the resolution, and provisions in the 1973 War Powers Act that the House invoked are legally controversial anyway.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The EU’s revised Energy Efficiency Directive and minimum energy efficiency standards for data centres are in line with the bloc’s 2030 target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990, it said in a statement. The European Commission said it would develop minimum ⁠performance standards for both new and existing data centres, with a “needs assessment” ​due by 2027, Reuters reported.

The EU is ​also working on ⁠a sustainability label for data centres, covering criteria including water use and clean energy supply, which large facilities would have to make public, it said. Officials told Reuters the Commission ​is ⁠still debating issues including how to assess data centres powered by nuclear energy.

The new EU rules imply strengthening incentives for data centres to improve energy efficiency and sustainability, and improving transparency and comparability by building on the reporting and rating framework under the Energy Efficiency Directive so that performance standards can be defined and enforced consistently across EU countries, the Commission said.

“If not ​tackled at EU level now, these challenges could grow considerably and become harder to ‌solve in ⁠the coming years, as the energy consumption of the sector is expected to increase further,” the Commission said.

The move comes amid projections that EU data centre capacity will more than double to reach 28 gigawatts by 2030 from 12 GW ​in 2025. That expansion will lift their share of EU electricity consumption ​beyond the current 2.5%, according to Reuters.

“Energy efficiency is a central pillar of the EU’s energy and climate framework, as well as being a key policy for delivering energy savings, improving affordability, and strengthening the competitiveness and resilience of the European economy on its path to climate neutrality,” the Commission said in a statement.

Data centres are expected to drive 20% of the growth in electricity demand in advanced economies by 2030, according to the International Energy ​Agency.

The Commission said it is also developing a post-2030 energy efficiency framework to help shape EU energy efficiency rules for the decade ahead, which is scheduled for publication later this year.

According to Reuters, the plans are part of a broader ⁠EU tech ​package aimed at boosting domestic cloud and ​AI capacity and reducing reliance on Big Tech. Other measures include using generative AI to speed up permitting for new energy projects ​and funding AI tools to help manage Europe's power grid.

Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said the licensing round will begin after the completion of this year’s commercial bid process. 

Eyesan added that Nigeria is already seeing a rise in oil investments as production increases. 

Licensing rounds are key to bringing new exploration and developments to the market, and Nigeria is keen to lure fresh investments and restore investor confidence following years of regulatory uncertainty. 

“So, we are in the process of finalising the 2026 launch, which will happen latest by the third quarter,” Eyesan said, adding that this is the “make or break point and we want to make sure we make it.”

An attempt at transparency 

Last year, Nigeria introduced consequential amendments to its Petroleum Industry Act, which aim to reduce bureaucratic delays and accelerate investments across the oil and gas chain. 

If the amended bill passes, the formal authority of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector would transfer to NUPRC and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), changing hands from NNPC Limited. 

This means that regulatory requirements are now “integrated operations” where oversight will be coordinated for shared upstream-midstream operations. 

Approvals for contracts, financing, and dispute resolutions could become more efficient, experts have said. For oil and gas companies operating in the region, this could mean faster approval cycles, more predictable schedules, and fewer contract bottlenecks. 

This also means better cooperation between regulators, which could translate into fewer and more efficient steps for oil and gas companies. 

Following the proposed 2025 amendments, Nigeria has also reduced costs associated with licensing rounds and opened them up to independent authorities to increase transparency. 

Investors prepared for changes

Canada’s Meren Energy, which has invested heavily in Nigerian oil, has welcomed the licensing round. The company’s Group CEO, Dr Oliver Quinn, said that Nigeria's new reforms have “inspired the company to increase its investments” in the West African state.

“We have operated in Agbami, Akpo, and Egina world-class fields. I think till date, in 20 years, about $11b in capital from our side has gone into these assets, and about $4b has gone to tax and royalties,” he added. 

Nigeria’s commercial bid will conclude ahead of the commencement of NOG Energy Week. 

Taking place from 5-9 July at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, the exhibition and conference will highlight the importance of Nigeria’s upstream performance as fundamental to national energy security, while looking at ways to drive investment to increase energy production. 

Strategic panel sessions will aim to answer key questions about this year's licensing round. They will examine the role of the 2026 bids in unlocking new capital, how they will accelerate exploration, how the new policies and regulations can strengthen investments, and how market conditions can enhance investor confidence. 

Not merely from traders or geopolitical commentators, but from multilateral agencies, trading houses, and global institutions whose job is to understand physical markets and economic risk.

Last week, the heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization issued an unusually stark joint warning following a high-level coordination meeting. Global oil inventories, they said, are being drawn down at a rapid pace in response to the supply shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping flows fail to normalise, continued depletion ahead of peak northern hemisphere summer demand would pose rising risks to fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience, they said.

The IEA this week sharpened that message further. Toril Bosoni, head of its oil markets division, warned that commercial inventories could fall towards critical or historic lows if current draws continue. Even under a best-case diplomatic scenario, she cautioned, reopening Hormuz and restoring normal flows could take six to eight months. Emergency stock releases are merely a temporary stopgap and cannot resolve supply losses of this scale, Bosoni said, implying that any lasting adjustment would ultimately have to come from the demand side.

The private sector is sounding similar alarms.

Tom Baker, Vitol’s managing director for Bahrain, warned that the market may be underpricing the risks from the Iran war and Hormuz disruption. Crude supply may eventually recover, he argued, but refined products could remain structurally tight for the rest of the year. His most telling observation may have been that the real stress point arrives when buyers need physical barrels and “the physical molecules just aren’t there to buy.”

Goldman Sachs has shifted the spotlight to refined products, warning of a potential diesel squeeze in the US by August as refiners tilt yields towards jet fuel during the summer travel season. Even if crude balances stabilise, product markets may not.

Global inventories are approaching “unheard of” lows, ExxonMobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman warned recently. Once inventories approach operational minimums, crude could spike towards $150-160/barrel, he said.

The common thread is difficult to ignore. This is no longer merely a story about lost supply. It is a story about shrinking buffers and a market running down its last line of defence.

Commercial as well as strategic reserves are being depleted at pace. Product balances are tightening. Yet futures markets continue to swing between alarm and complacency, still highly responsive to each round of “deal imminent” rhetoric emerging from Washington and Tehran.

Yet the louder the warnings grow, the more puzzling the muted policy response becomes.

Who exactly are these warnings directed towards?

Market participants, certainly. Refiners, importers, shipping companies, and industrial consumers need to hear them and adjust procurement strategies, supply chains, and contingency plans accordingly. For many, the menu of workable options is already narrowing, and the cost of waiting is rising.

Traders, too, should pay attention. Whether they will is another matter. The current crisis has curiously seen markets remain attached to narratives even though fundamentals are moving in another direction. At least one major trading house now openly argues that oil is underpriced relative to the physical risks confronting the market.

But perhaps the real audience is governments — especially those in net oil-importing countries.

And if so, why does the response still appear muted?

One possibility is denial — a head-in-the-sand syndrome born of disbelief that the global economy could genuinely be facing a supply shock of this magnitude and duration.

Another is miscalculation. Policymakers may believe strategic and commercial inventories can cushion the blow for longer than they actually can. That assumption deserves scrutiny. The current crisis has already crossed the threshold where running down inventories at an unprecedented pace looks less like a strategy and more like a desperate gamble.

A third possibility is that governments are allowing themselves to be guided by Washington’s persistent messaging that diplomacy is progressing and a deal is around the corner. Markets have repeatedly reacted to assertions that peace may break out any day and the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen.

But even if such a deal materialises, there appears to be a dangerous leap in logic — namely, assuming that reopening Hormuz automatically means a rapid return to normal oil flows.

It does not.

Shipping patterns, insurance, security clearances, damaged infrastructure, and physical confidence take time to rebuild. Even Bosoni’s six-to-eight-month timeline for flows to normalise after the Strait reopens could prove optimistic. While a preliminary US-Iran deal would likely reopen Hormuz and launch talks on the more sensitive nuclear issues, that process could prove fraught and leave the recovery in Gulf flows vulnerable to renewed hostilities and interruptions if diplomacy falters.

Then there is politics.

Governments know the uncomfortable reality staring them in the face: if supply remains impaired and inventories keep falling, the only meaningful balancing mechanism left may be higher end-user prices and lower consumption.

That is rarely an attractive political proposition.

Asking citizens and industries to conserve fuel, curb discretionary travel or absorb higher energy costs is politically painful. Leaders understandably prefer to wait for better options to emerge.

But waiting could backfire.

The world is in uncharted waters. A supply disruption of roughly 15 million barrels per day — and one lasting months rather than days — has no precedent in living memory.

Yet the absence of a playbook is a poor excuse for failing to plan.

If Hormuz remains shut for weeks longer, governments and markets alike may have to confront an increasingly unavoidable truth. Demand will have to contract to match lost supply.

The only remaining question is whether that adjustment happens through deliberate and realistic planning and transparent policy, or through panic, shortages, and price spikes forcing the outcome anyway.

Bilateral discussions with Modi “will involve the full spectrum of India-Venezuela relations and explore avenues for further cooperation in the areas of energy, trade, investment, pharmaceuticals and health care,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Tuesday.

Rodríguez’s June 3-7 visit coincides with India’s renewed effort to broaden its sources of crude after the Iran conflict blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which almost 40% of the country’s oil supplies flowed before the war. The nation imports about 90% of the crude it consumes.

India received a parcel of Venezuelan oil in April after a yearlong hiatus as Washington eased sanctions on the OPEC producer. 

The shipments climbed to about 283,000 barrels a day in April, the highest since March 2020, according to data compiled by Kpler. The data analytics firm estimates June arrivals could increase to about 380,000 barrels a day in a sign of Venezuela’s growing importance in India’s energy mix.

Reliance Industries Ltd. has been among the largest buyers of Venezuelan crude after it signed a term agreement in 2012 to source as much as 400,000 barrels a day from Petroleos de Venezuela SA. The billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled company is among the few Indian refiners capable of processing the South American country’s heavy, sulfur-rich crude. 

“Venezuela has the potential to become a longer-term supplier to India, particularly as refiners seek cost-competitive alternatives to Middle Eastern grades,” Sumit Ritolia, modeling and refining manager at Kpler said. “However, Venezuelan production remains relatively constrained and is unlikely to materially alter India’s overall import requirements.”

Exports of Venezuelan crude oil eased in May, marking the first slowdown in growth since the ouster of strongman Nicolas Maduro, as oil prices swung amid volatility triggered by the Iran war. A massive infusion of cash is needed to nurse oil production back to peak levels from 50 years ago, after decades of mismanagement and a dearth of new investments.

State-run ONGC Videsh Ltd. is seeking to expand its presence in Venezuela. The overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corp. holds stakes in the San Cristobal field and the Carabobo-1 block. ONCG Chairman Arun Kumar Singh said last month the company expects to receive a license under Venezuela’s new regime and is hopeful of increasing production from the assets.

For Caracas, deeper engagement with one of the world’s fastest-growing oil consumers offers an opportunity to rebuild its economy after years of isolation.

This will be Rodríguez’s sixth visit to India and her first since becoming acting president after the US captured and ousted Maduro in January. She will be accompanied by several cabinet ministers, including those in charge of foreign affairs, economy and finance, science and technology, communications, and transportation, Jaiswal said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

European, US and domestic developers including Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cox Energy, BlackRock Inc. and Grupo Mexico have signed deals totaling about $4 billion in recent weeks to expand the nation’s power output and fortify the grid. Billionaire Carlos Slim is exploring a foray into battery storage. And Mexican infrastructure investment manager MIP Real Assets is seeking to invest more than $12 billion for projects involving renewable energy and highways.

In the 20 months since Sheinbaum’s swearing in, the pace of promised electricity investment has already eclipsed the total under predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s six years in office, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. It’s the first sector to attract significant capital in Mexico’s broader struggle to revamp its infrastructure.

While the pledged investments fall well short of the $56 billion that Sheinbaum says Mexico needs for the grid, they mark a clear shift from the years under AMLO when the flow of capital into the sector all but evaporated. Nonetheless, it remains far from certain the nation can attract the money it needs with laws in place requiring the government to retain majority control of energy assets.

“It’s been a roller coast ride for the last seven years in the energy space, and now, the biggest change has been an openness and receptiveness toward the private sector,” said Carlos Barrera, chief executive officer at Atlas Renewable Energy in Miami. “We’ve gone from cautious, to cautiously optimistic, to cautiously bullish on Mexico.”

One of Mexico’s key impediments to attracting private power-sector investments is a law requiring state-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad, or CFE, to maintain at least 54% ownership of the nation’s electric plants. It’s shaping up to be a point of contention in negotiations to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. 

“The main concern that’s been expressed in preliminary trade talks is that Mexico is giving CFE favor in electricity dispatch,” said Jose Maria Lujambio, a partner at Cacheaux, Cavazos & Newton in Austin, Texas.

Sheinbaum is trying to entice investment in Mexico’s blackout-prone electricity sector with $23.4 billion in government spending on transmission and generation projects. For every dollar of state funds, the president’s plan foresees almost $1.40 in additional investment from the private sector.

The Western Hemisphere’s fourth-largest economy operates on an electrical grid that isn’t keeping up with booming demand. The manufacturing, automotive and tech industries are in expansion mode in Mexico, lured by cheaper labor costs and proximity to the US market. 

Electricity consumption is forecast to grow around 3% per year on average across the country, according to Mexico’s energy ministry. Even so, in some places, like the tech hub of Queretaro, that figure will be closer to 6%, according to Mauricio Reyes Caracheo, director of that state’s energy agency.

As it stands now, the Mexican grid is prone to seasonal blackouts, especially along the sweltering Gulf Coast and in the northern desert. The system has less than half the backup capacity as neighboring Texas.

Almost a century of strict state control of the energy sector discouraged international investment, leaving responsibility for power generation and transmission in the hands of sclerotic bureaucratic institutions.

Although that structure remains largely intact, the dam began to break in April when the government published new regulations outlining how private electricity generators can sell power. The rules are part and parcel of Sheinbaum’s broader energy reforms aimed at boosting private participation while preserving the prerogatives of state-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad.

CFE is planning more than 100 power generation projects and 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) of new power lines, according to the energy ministry. Those public projects, along with private investment and joint ventures to be tendered later this year, could add nearly 30 gigawatts of capacity to Mexico’s roughly 100 GW grid by 2030, according to BloombergNEF.

The government has already received more than 70 proposals for public-private ventures since January, and approvals for many of the projects are expected within months, Energy Minister Luz Elena Gonzalez said at a May event.

“We are monitoring the strategic plan for the electricity sector on a daily and weekly basis to ensure that investments are carried out according to schedule,” Gonzalez said.

That sense of urgency is different from the previous administration’s lackadaisical approach, according to Daniel Bustos, chief executive of midstream company Esentia Energy Development. 

“They respect the deadlines, and that changes everything,” Bustos said in an interview. “Consistency is what private companies look for.”

Other challenges remain. Mexico is heavily dependent on US natural gas, which currently fuels about 60% of the grid, a dependency Sheinbaum is trying to change. Meanwhile, sluggish growth in the broader economy, strained fiscal accounts, and a heavily indebted Pemex sparked a May credit ratings downgrade from Moody’s Ratings.

For Oscar Ocampo, an analyst at the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, those challenges make Sheinbaum’s goals and deadlines extremely ambitious.

“Whether they reach that goal or not, they’re very clear about the need for private investment,” Ocampo said. “They’re awakening investors’ appetites and that’s very important.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The British, Dutch and German consortium announced plans on Tuesday to expand its enrichment facility in Eunice, New Mexico. Urenco aims to have its plant update operational in six years, helping address concerns of possible fuel shortages at US nuclear sites amid a ban on Russian uranium.

“This expansion reinforces our commitment to a resilient US nuclear fuel supply chain focused on meeting the long-term needs of our customers as well as supporting US energy security,” Chief Executive Officer Boris Schucht said in Tuesday’s statement.

Urenco’s expansion plans come as the Trump administration pushes to quadruple output from US nuclear plants, which will require a leap in uranium fuel production to meet that challenge. The US has been racing to provide huge amounts of electricity for AI data centers, with nuclear power emerging as one of the big winners.

Still, the Energy Information Administration said last September that owners and operators of US reactors face possible uranium shortages over the next decade. While Russia dominates the global market for the nuclear fuel — the nation supplied around a fifth of US demand two years ago — the US banned imports of Russian uranium in 2024, though there are allowances for limited waivers until 2028.

Urenco’s investment will fund the expansion of its New Mexico facility, with the first of 24 sets of centrifuges used to enrich uranium expected to be operational from 2032. The firm said the expansion will add 2.1 million separative work units of new enrichment capacity to the facility. The plant already has an existing annual capacity of 4.3 million SWU, which is roughly a third of current US demand.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Just two inbound commercial transits were observed on Tuesday morning, following two outbound ships on Monday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Shipowners had recently become more optimistic about a pickup in traffic with guidance from the US, and Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency on Tuesday said 24 vessels transited the waterway over the past 24 hours after obtaining permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The figure is difficult to confirm independently because electronic interference and tracking gaps suggest the total may bundle smaller coastal craft with large commercial ships.

President Donald Trump is still hopeful the US can reach an interim peace deal with Iran soon, after the Islamic Republic threatened to suspend talks because of Israel’s escalating attacks in Lebanon. Officials in Tehran are discussing their “final text” to send to the US, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported, citing a person close to the negotiating team. The report reiterated that the country’s negotiators were wary of the US, saying it had breached previous pledges.

An Iranian fuel carrier and a Chinese oil products tanker entered the Gulf on Tuesday, after an Iranian liquefied petroleum gas carrier and a Turkish bulker exited the waterway on Monday.

Regional shipping patterns remain disrupted by the US blockade of Iranian vessels in the Gulf of Oman. On Monday, American military officials reported that a total of 121 commercial ships have been rerouted.

Persistent AIS interference continues to obscure vessel movements, with transit counts likely to be revised as ships reappear beyond high-risk waters.

The US naval presence may also be distorting the observations. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making it harder to track flows in real time.

Even before the US barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca — around 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.

NOTES: 

Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they’re well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals were compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf.

When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing — where electronic interference can falsify the apparent position of a ship. 

Some transits may not have been detected if vessels’ transponders haven’t been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and won’t show up on tracking screens for many days.

This tracker will be published during heightened tensions involving Iran, and aims to capture traffic for all classes of commercial shipping.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“Rationally, our deployment should not be a community issue,” Chief Executive Officer KR Sridhar said in an interview with Bloomberg News in San Francisco. “It’s a business opportunity right now because nobody else is community friendly.”

Bloom’s shares have risen by more than 200% since the start of the year on the back of investor enthusiasm over demand for its technology to power data centers. Its fuel cells generate electricity from natural gas through a chemical reaction, rather than burning the fuel. The company says they require little water and generate less air pollution and noise compared to gas turbines.

Sridhar views those as key advantages making the systems popular with data center developers facing increasing hostility from local residents over their negative environmental and economic impact. 

“The national backlash is very real. You’re seeing local communities come and push back a lot,” Sridhar said. “Which of us wants a power plant in our backyard?”

He pointed to two recent deals with companies that are opting for Bloom equipment, in part because of the environmental advantages.

One of San Jose, California-based Bloom’s largest projects is in New Mexico, where it’s supplying 2.5 gigawatts of capacity to power an Oracle Corp. data center. 

Initially, Oracle planned to power the campus — dubbed Project Jupiter — with more traditional gas turbines from Siemens Energy AG. The project met intense protests from locals largely concerned about environmental impacts, and the software company announced in April that it would power the site with Bloom systems.

Dutch-owned AI cloud provider Nebius Group NV. also opted to swap plans for gas turbines for Bloom’s technology, Sridhar said. Nebius said in May it had selected Bloom due to its fast delivery time and “clean, virtually non-polluting technology.”

Bloom has spent time in New Mexico recently, Sridhar said, meeting with locals and explaining its technology. And he said some people have been won over, including a local newspaper that had initially opposed the Oracle project.

Still, not everyone can be convinced. “Nothing is NIMBY-proof,” he said, “because NIMBY-ism is not rational.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent for August delivery traded below $95 a barrel after adding 4.2% in the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate was near $92. Prices surged Monday on a report that Tehran was halting talks with Washington in protest against Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, before paring gains after President Donald Trump said negotiations were continuing. 

The US leader said a memorandum of understanding with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen over the next week, according to a telephone conversation he had with ABC News. Washington still had “to get a few more points” before a deal, he said.

The lack of clarity over the potential extension of the current ceasefire — and the future of flows through the Strait of Hormuz — has buffeted oil prices, which fell last month on optimism a deal could be reached. The report by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency also said that Tehran and its regional proxies have placed on their agenda the complete closure of Hormuz, as well as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea — a crucial alternative for oil exports.

“As long as flows through Hormuz have not fully normalized and the US–Iran negotiation process remains uncertain, oil prices are likely to stay elevated and volatile,” said Linh Tran, a market analyst at XS.com in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Adding to the confusion, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered differing accounts of a call about the fighting in Lebanon. A US-brokered ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Iran-backed Hezbollah should be extended from Beirut to include the entirety of Lebanese territories, with more negotiations taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Lebanese presidency said in a post.

The primary focus for oil market remains the vital Strait of Hormuz, which handled about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas in peacetime. Visible commercial traffic through the waterway remains constrained as the renewed strains in US-Iran diplomacy add to shipping uncertainty.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

LNG deliveries to China rose to 4.9 million tons in May, marginally higher than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a stark reversal from the year-on-year contractions seen in previous months. April’s imports fell to the lowest level in eight years as higher prices triggered by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on demand.

The Iran war has choked shipments from the Gulf, which typically accounts for a third of China’s supply. The drop in LNG deliveries from Qatar has been offset by an increase from exporters including Canada, Malaysia, Oman and Russia, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Declining gas inventories and the prospect of a hot summer this year have also compelled companies to buy more from the spot market, according to traders. State-owned Cnooc Ltd. last month bought several cargoes for June delivery while second-tier firm Zhejiang Energy International Ltd. purchased a cargo for July.

China’s increased appetite could tighten global supply as competition between Europe and Asia heats up for spare cargoes ahead of winter restocking requirements. Europe is so far lagging, with its 30-day moving average for deliveries down 13% year-over-year, according to the ship-tracking data.

China’s imports have remained soft over the past year as buyers have shied away from expensive LNG to rely on cheaper pipeline gas, as well as other substitutes such as coal and renewables. Still, a surge in domestic prices over the past months has pushing importers to look at importing more of the super-chilled fuel. 

On the Wire

China’s yuan has strengthened to its highest level in nearly four years versus a basket of trading-partner currencies, underscoring the appeal of Chinese assets as a regional haven during the Iran conflict.

The recent Shanxi coal mine gas blast, which killed 82 workers, could become a catalyst for a broader consolidation push in China’s coal industry, said Bloomberg Intelligence.

Kazakhstan said the first phase of a new $15 billion Chinese-built aluminum complex will start up in 2028, expanding domestic processing of the country’s vast mineral resources.

BYD Co.’s total vehicle sales rose for the first time in nine months in May, buoyed by strong international demand as high oil prices spur the switch to electric cars.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Tuesday, June 2

• SNEC PV+ conference in Shanghai, day 1

Wednesday, June 3

• RatingDog’s China services & composite PMIs for May, 09:45
• SNEC PV+ conference in Shanghai, day 2
  • Solar, battery & hydrogen exhibitions, day 1
• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00

Thursday, June 4

• SNEC PV+ conference in Shanghai, day 3
  • Solar, battery & hydrogen exhibitions, day 2

Friday, June 5

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• SNEC PV+ solar, battery & hydrogen exhibitions in Shanghai, day 3

Saturday, June 6

• Nothing major scheduled

Sunday, June 7

• China’s foreign reserves for May, including gold

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The decision, which will have little impact on international fuel markets, comes after drone strikes on refineries pushed Russia’s crude-processing rate to the lowest in more than 16 years. In an effort to curb the flow of petrodollars into the Kremlin’s coffers, Ukraine has targeted a wide range of energy assets including sea ports and pipelines. 

“The goal of the decision is to ensure a stable situation in the domestic fuel market,” the government said on its website.

Russia isn’t a major player on the world’s jet fuel market. Last year, it exported an average of 30,000 barrels a day, or less than 2% of the global supplies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. Daily average exports slipped to 28,000 barrels in the first four months of 2026, with Turkey being the main buyer, the data show. 

Russia is entering its summer vacation season, when demand for fuels typically rises. The Energy Ministry had already reimposed a ban on most gasoline exports from April 1, keeping more fuel for the domestic market. 

Rising prices at the pump can be a concern for the authorities, with costly gasoline triggering protests in the past, most recently in 2018. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In an exclusive interaction on the sidelines of AVEVA World in Milan, Caspar Herzberg spoke to Energy Connects on what this “race to resilience” means for the future of industrial policy. Challenging the conventional wisdom that sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are at odds, Herzberg highlights how the push for diversified, redundant energy grids is driving sustainable outcomes. From the challenges of rapid localisation to the high-stakes deployment of digital twins and industrial AI, he outlines a realistic vision for the future of the world’s most complex energy infrastructure.

You have spoken extensively about the “race to resilience”. With nations treating energy security as synonymous with national security, what does this mean for global industrial policies? Do you believe this will drive localisation, globalisation, or a mix of both?

It will definitely spark more localised investments. We are going to see companies and governments investing in everything they can – from generation plants to processing plants, and generally moving toward multiples of industrial assets.

A clear hypothesis is emerging, and we’ve already observed it in the United States as a matter of policy. However, we’ve also seen the inherent challenges of rapid localization – specifically, that the necessary skills and human capital are often missing because capabilities have regressed over time. There simply aren’t always the people around locally to build these complex types of plants right away.

While there is a lot of talk about globalisation being rolled back, the world has been highly globalised before – such as before the First World War – and while it rolled back then, it was never totally dismantled. Because of modern data connectivity, global migration, and how interconnected we are, I don’t believe we will truly see a completely disconnected world.

Instead, resilience is going to be the defining imperative. But to execute resilience properly, it means implementing significantly more sustainability than we have had in the past.

That is an interesting connection. Usually, sustainability and heavy industrial resilience are viewed as being at odds. How do they align?

They align because everyone is going to invest into multiple, diversified sources of energy to prepare for the moment they are cut off from one. Look at what happened to Germany: they relied heavily on Russian gas, made a massive effort to pivot to Qatari gas, and now they must make another huge effort to truly diversify beyond gas toward every possible option. Even nuclear energy is now being considered as part of a broader European approach for Germany. Previously disregarded capabilities are making a major comeback.

We’ve seen this clearly in China. China is a much more sustainable place today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. That change didn’t happen because they focused purely on sustainability for its own sake; it happened because they wanted to be resilient. When you build highly diversified, redundant, and self-sufficient energy systems to achieve resilience, sustainability improves as a natural byproduct.

Furthermore, from a supply chain perspective, these hyper-thin, hyper-optimised global supply chains have always worried me. If you have all your eggs in one basket very far away, you are exposed. Doubling down on redundant local capabilities is simply good business and good grid resilience.

How do digital twins and artificial intelligence figure into this race for industrial resilience? Which sectors see the most critical need?

When we talk about a digital twin, we are talking about a digital representation of a physical asset. That can span from a 3D physical representation to a process-driven twin fueled by real-time operational data.

In a volatile world, you cannot afford to work in an environment where an unexpected shortage leaves you scrambling. This is where the digital twin and the ability to collaborate in the cloud become revolutionary. By utilising AI on top of a digital twin design, companies can significantly reduce engineering and design times, push that twin out, and collaborate seamlessly across the supply chain to build assets in fractions of historical timeframes.

We are seeing a doubling down on redundant capabilities across the board – whether in refineries, ports, shipping, pipelines, or nuclear power stations. Instead of seeing fewer complex plants in the future, we are actually seeing a lot more complex plants being commissioned to secure supply cushions.

Regarding AI, there is nothing inevitable about the way it will develop. We are all subjected to a relentless marketing machine from technology companies, but the reality is that the industrial sector is figuring out what works and what doesn't. In a process industry like refining, an AI model that works 99.5% of the time is not good enough; a refinery or a nuclear plant running on that margin would be forced to close.

Our mission at AVEVA is to safely mobilise industrial data. It’s about combining operational technology (OT) data with broader business data, planning systems, and supply chains into a unified view so that companies can deploy best-in-class AI analytics tools securely.

At the same time, disruption is evolving from physical to cyber-physical. Energy infrastructure is now a contested domain where digital intrusion, misinformation, and automated attacks intersect with kinetic risks. Energy security is thus less about reserves, contracts, or infrastructure and more about detection speed, system intelligence, and real-time response capacity. 

AI is therefore arguably shifting from an optimisation tool to a foundational layer of energy security, emerging as a general-purpose technology comparable in systemic importance to electricity. In an environment of continuous disruption, energy security is increasingly determined by AI.

This implication is structural: energy systems are no longer exposed to sequential failures, but to coordinated, multi-layer attacks.

AI is therefore arguably shifting from an optimisation tool to a foundational layer of energy security, emerging as a general-purpose technology comparable in systemic importance to electricity. In an environment of continuous disruption, energy security is increasingly determined by AI. 

Chokepoints and global spillovers: the Strait of Hormuz

A small number of physical chokepoints continue to anchor global energy stability, and none is more consequential than the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 25% of seaborne global oil trade transits this narrow corridor, alongside significant volumes of LNG and other strategic commodities. This geographical concentration creates a structural vulnerability that becomes acute under geopolitical stress.

Recent tensions in the Middle East show how even limited disruptions to shipping trigger immediate global repercussions. European gas markets react almost instantly through Dutch TTF pricing, while Asian importers, particularly Japan, South Korea, and China, face rising LNG spot prices and shipping premiums. These effects are not gradual but rapid system-wide responses, reflecting tightly coupled energy markets.

The scale of risk is well established. The 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility removed around 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) or nearly 5% of global supply, driving a nearly 20% price spike in a single trading session, one of the largest intraday increases in modern energy markets. The lesson is not only about the costs of energy system exposure, but also about limited system adaptability. This gap between disruption and response is where AI is beginning to play a critical role.

The cyber-physical threat: hybrid warfare and infrastructure targeting

Energy infrastructure is increasingly targeted across multiple vectors simultaneously, including cyber intrusions into operational technology systems, AI-enabled phishing, and physical sabotage of pipelines, terminals, and grid assets.

This shift is measurable. Cyberattacks on energy utilities have tripled over the past four years, partly driven by AI that has increased the scale and precision of attacks. This trend has exposed the vulnerability of industrial control systems, with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks and sensor data susceptible to manipulation through false telemetry injection or compromised operator interfaces.

Recent incidents and threat assessments show growing exposure to concurrent disruptions across digital and physical layers. The expanding digitalisation of energy infrastructure has widened the attack surface, increasing risks to both IT and operational systems. Institutions such as the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Institute of Standards and Technology warn that adversaries can alter control processes and mislead monitoring systems through data manipulation, while the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity warns that phishing and social engineering are the primary entry point risks. This implication is structural: energy systems are no longer exposed to sequential failures, but to coordinated, multi-layer attacks.

AI as the shield for predictive resilience

Traditional models of energy security are inherently reactive, focused on restoring the system after disruption. AI shifts this paradigm toward predictive resilience, enabling early detection of anomalies in grid behaviour, market signals and cyber intrusions before they escalate into system-wide failures.

Machine learning models trained on historical operational data can identify deviations in load balancing and system performance within milliseconds, reducing response times that previously took hours. Evidence from grid operators shows that AI can reduce outage durations by 30-50% while also improving utilisation of existing grid infrastructure. This marks a structural shift from failure response to failure prevention, where AI is no longer an efficiency layer but a core mechanism of risk containment.

Agentic AI and real-time threat neutralisation

The emergence of agentic AI marks the next phase in energy system resilience. Unlike conventional systems that depend on human intervention, agentic AI operates autonomously within predefined constraints, enabling real-time detection, decision-making, and response. In operational terms, this allows systems to isolate compromised grid nodes, reroute electricity or gas flows, and pre-emptively shut down vulnerable components before cascading failures occur. Evidence from simulated grid environments suggests that AI-enabled control and rerouting significantly improve fault containment by accelerating detection and response time, reducing the propagation of local disturbances. This shifts energy infrastructure toward a dynamic, self-adaptive operating system in which stabilisation and recovery are automated. In the context of hybrid warfare, such autonomy is critical as resilience is no longer just a recovery function but an embedded system capability that continuously adapts as threats unfold.

Digital twins: simulating disruption before it happens

Digital twins are emerging as a central component of energy system resilience. By replicating physical infrastructure in real time, they allow operators to simulate and analyse disruption scenarios before they occur, using continuously updated operational data from assets such as refineries, pipelines, LNG terminals, and electricity grids.

Companies such as Shell and Equinor have already deployed digital twins at the asset level, achieving measurable gains in efficiency and reductions in unplanned downtime. At the system scale, they enable scenario modelling for infrastructure loss, cyberattacks, and geopolitically driven supply disruptions.

In the context of market instability, this allows European and Asian operators to simulate LNG rerouting, stress-test supply shocks, and adjust operational strategies in advance. The result is a shift from reactive crisis management to anticipatory system design, where disruption is modelled and mitigated before it materialises.

Decentralisation: reducing systemic vulnerability

Conventional energy systems are highly centralised, relying on large-scale generation and long transmission networks. While efficient, this structure concentrates risk in critical nodes, where disruptions can cascade across entire systems.

AI is enabling a shift toward decentralised energy systems built on distributed energy resources, smart microgrids, and local balancing systems. These reduce dependence on single points of failure and enhance overall system resilience. AI thus functions as the orchestration layer, continuously balancing supply and demand, optimising storage, and managing load flows in real time. The result is a structural transition from rigid, hierarchical systems to adaptive networks better able to absorb both physical and geopolitical shocks.

Technology as a stabiliser of energy markets

Beyond infrastructure, AI is becoming a stabilising force in energy markets. As global systems grow more complex and volatile, accurate forecasting and logistics optimisation are more critical than ever. AI-driven predictive analytics are now used to anticipate demand shifts, optimise LNG shipping routes, and improve price signalling across interconnected markets.

During periods of volatility, these tools reduce forecasting errors and improve decision-making for utilities and industrial consumers. This enhances planning certainty and lowers price volatility, hedging costs, and exposure across supply chains. In a world where geopolitical shocks transmit rapidly through markets, data-driven stabilisation becomes a core pillar of energy security.

Resource AI: maximising existing supply

AI is also reshaping supply dynamics by improving the utilisation of existing energy assets. Rather than focusing solely on capacity expansion, it enhances efficiency via predictive maintenance, drilling optimisation, and reservoir modelling, increasing output while reducing downtime. At scale, these incremental gains translate into significant supply-side improvements, particularly in constrained markets. Platforms such as ADNOC’s ENERGYai — an agentic AI solution to improve decision making and operational efficiency — exemplify this approach by integrating demand forecasting with upstream optimisation to maximise asset performance and resource utilisation.

Case study: building the energy– AI nexus

The integration of AI across energy systems is already visible at the national level. In the UAE, ADNOC’s Energyai project has deployed AI across predictive maintenance, demand modelling, and digital twin applications in its refining operations, leading to efficiency improvements, reduced downtime, and enhanced responsiveness to market volatility.

Similar trends are emerging across Europe, particularly in systems with higher shares of variable renewables. Grid operators in Germany and the Nordic region are increasingly using AI-driven forecasting and optimisation tools to manage intermittency and maintain system stability.

AI, energy demand, and a new geopolitical layer

AI is not only securing energy systems but also reshaping them. The rapid expansion of AI-driven data centres is creating a major new source of electricity demand, rising from around 415 TWh in 2024 to nearly 945 TWh by 2030 — just under 3% of global electricity use. Growth is driven by AI workloads, with specialised servers expanding at around 30% annually, though efficiency gains in hardware and cooling are helping to contain overall demand. According to the International Energy Agency, electricity demand from data centres grew at 17% globally in 2025. In the United States, data centres accounted for around 50% of total electricity demand growth.

This introduces a new geopolitical dimension to energy security. Countries able to provide reliable, scalable, low-cost electricity will gain a strategic advantage in deploying AI. Energy security is increasingly tied to digital competitiveness, blurring the line between the energy and technology sectors, making them not just complementary but interdependent.

Risks and limitations of AI in energy systems

Another critical factor to consider for the long-term outlook on the AI-energy nexus is that integrating of AI introduces risks that extend beyond operational performance into system design and governance. As AI becomes embedded in real-time grid control and forecasting, it expands the cyber-physical vulnerabilities, exposing energy systems not only to conventional cyber intrusion but also to manipulation of data inputs, training processes, and model outputs, with cascading effects on dispatch accuracy and grid stability. These risks are amplified in renewable systems, where volatility requires rapid automated responses.

AI performance is also constrained by uneven data quality, limited interoperability, and fragmented legacy infrastructure, which can embed bias and reduce predictive accuracy. The use of opaque “black-box” models raises governance and accountability concerns in safety-critical grid operations where decisions must remain understandable and traceable.

In addition, AI infrastructure itself is resource-intensive and requires significant electricity and water for data centres, exacerbating competition for resources. With these numbers set to grow further in the coming years, one of the most critical challenges for the energy sector is balancing the power demand growth with AI’s pivotal role in securing the future of energy in an age of disruption.

Conclusion: AI as the new energy resource

The current instability in the Middle East reflects structural shift in the global energy landscape rather than an isolated disruption. Physical chokepoints remain exposed, infrastructure is increasingly targeted, and market responses are both immediate and amplified by interconnected systems – where speed, scale and the complexity of disruption are the defining factors. 

With the critical ability to enable predictive action, autonomous system management, and real-time asset optimisation, AI and digitalisation can therefore alter how energy systems manage risks and pave the way for a more robust energy future. AI is no longer a tool for efficiency, but a system-level capability in a world where energy security is no longer defined solely by access to resources but by the capacity to process information, anticipate shocks and respond dynamically. In this framework, AI becomes a core strategic asset, functionally analogous to an energy resource in its ability to sustain system stability under conditions of persistent disruption 

• This Market Outlook report was produced as a part of ADIPEC’s Energy & Geopolitics series. For more information and coverage, visit: https://www.adipec.com/press-media/insights/