The Atokos, a Very Large Crude Carrier with a transport capacity of about 2 million barrels, signaled its location in the Indian Ocean on Friday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That would suggest it navigated Hormuz, with its digital transponder off, over the past several days.

The ship is managed by Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., according to industry databases, and its transit means the firm has now moved about 6.5 million barrels through the strait, making it by far the biggest non-Iranian shipper via the waterway. Dynacom didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Transit via the strait, which handled about 20% of the world’s oil and a similar portion of liquefied natural gas before the war, otherwise remains largely shuttered. That’s forced producers across the region to shutter output and bolstered the price of crude as well as of products like jet fuel, diesel and gasoline.

The US this week began a blockade of its own on Iranian shipping, adding to one that Tehran has had in place since the fighting began. 

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Energy supplied by state power retailers during the year rose almost 1%, the worst performance since 2021 when electricity use declined due to the pandemic, according to data from the power ministry’s Central Electricity Authority. The past fiscal year also saw the first annual decline in peak power demand in at least two decades.

While cool weather alleviates the extreme heat typical of Indian summers, providing relief to outdoor workers and farmers in particular, it forces power plants to ramp down operations and slowdown purchases of coal, causing a surge in stockpiles at mines.

India’s power consumption growth is historically tied to the weather, with summer heat waves being the biggest driver. Now, electrification is creating new demand avenues, such as the use of electric heaters during winter. 

“As cooling needs have contributed significantly to India’s demand growth in the past five years, the impact of a milder summer could be meaningful even if the economic activities stay intact,” said Anish Mandal, a partner with Deloitte South Asia who leads new energy and energy transition at the company.

To be sure, the power ministry data only captures supplies from state retailers, which account for about 80% of the country’s last-mile connections. Growing installations of rooftop and off-grid solar systems, together constituting about 31 gigawatts capacity, are shrinking the market served by regional utilities. 

Electricity demand is expected to rise more sharply this year on expectations of a hotter summer. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent fell toward $98 a barrel, paring a weekly gain, while West Texas Intermediate was near $93. Trump claimed, without evidence, Tehran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including opening the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Republic has not publicly confirmed the concessions.

Some Gulf Arab and European leaders said that a US-Iran peace deal would take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials. 

The crude market has been jolted by the conflict, which is now approaching the 50-day mark. The hostilities delivered an unprecedented supply shock, with Tehran halting most traffic through Hormuz, disrupting a fifth of global oil flows. More recently, the US also imposed its own naval blockade.

“The dominant theme now is not escalation, but stabilization,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova Pte. “Oil markets are sending a clear message: fear drove the rally, diplomacy is driving the correction, and uncertainty will drive volatility ahead.”

During the war, which began in February after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Trump has often sowed confusion among investors with contradictory statements and rapid shifts in position about the timeline for the conflict, threats of further action, and what’s been agreed. At times, he’s also shown a tendency to reverse himself when markets appear to be rejecting his policies.

On Thursday, the US president said he didn’t expect he would have to extend a two-week ceasefire to reach a deal, predicting a resolution “fairly soon,” but if he needed to, he would. He also said that he might travel to Pakistan — which hosted a first round of talks — if a deal with Iran was clinched. 

In remarks later at an event in Nevada, Trump sought to assuage voters’ fears about the cost of living as energy costs rise because of the conflict. He said the war in Iran was “going along swimmingly,” and should end soon.

After a run of exceptionally volatile trading, price movements have cooled, with Brent trading in a band of about $10 a barrel this week compared with a record-setting $38 in mid-March. A gauge of the benchmark’s second-month contract volatility was near the lowest since early last month.

Israel and Lebanon also agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, a move that may ease regional tensions . Israel has been battling Hezbollah, a key ally of Tehran. Iran has linked a ceasefire in Lebanon with conditions for a pause in the fighting with Washington. Trump said that he hopes Hezbollah “acts nicely.”

Control over Hormuz, which links the Gulf to global markets, remains contentious, with the dual blockade keeping traffic at a near-standstill. Iran plans to charge ships for transit even after the war is over.

“The market is balancing improving headlines with the reality that every delay in normalization means further supply loss and tighter near-term fundamentals,” Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “While there’s been some positive geopolitical progress, it hasn’t translated into real movement on flows, which remain clearly constrained.”

Given the damage to infrastructure, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that it could take up to two years to recover a significant share of oil and gas production that has been disrupted. Any recovery would be gradual, Birol said on Bloomberg TV’s

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The country will “significantly increase” the supply of non-fossil energy by 2030 and double it by 2035 compared with 2025 levels, Wang Changlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a briefing on Friday. A massive hydropower project in Tibet and desert-based renewable hubs will help propel clean-energy generation, he said.

Wang’s comments clarify the meaning of a 10-year action plan to double non-fossil energy that was first flagged last month in the 15th five-year plan. That mention was brief, though, and several details were unclear, including when the start and end dates were, and whether the doubling referred to capacity or generation.

Doubling clean energy consumption over a decade is likely a more ambitious target that China’s previous goals of having non-fossil energy comprise 25% of total consumption by 2025 and 30% by 2035.

If total energy demand grows around 2.5% a year, then doubling consumption would lead to a 29% non-fossil energy share by 2029, according to  Lauri Myllyvirta and Belinda Schäpe, analysts from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. 

“If this means doubling total use of non-fossil energy from 2025 to 2035, it could be significantly more ambitious than China’s existing targets,” the analysts said in a March 6 note after the five-year plan’s publication.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

From geopolitical disruption to shifting policy priorities, the conditions that once underpinned long term supply planning now feel less stable. In response, governments and energy buyers are asking harder questions about where supply will come from in future, how reliable it will be, and the risks associated with it.

The shift is tied to broader changes in how energy security is defined. Even before recent geopolitical shocks, markets moved away from efficiency-driven models, with reliability, supply diversity and political resilience re-entering the conversation. Now, Africa is moving from the edges to the centre of the discussion, as buyers look to reduce their dependence on a smaller group of exporters.

A new starting point

This shift does not remove Africa’s structural challenges, but it has reframed the conversation around how production can be sustained over the long term and where investment can be deployed with confidence.

Nigeria illustrates many of these dynamics. As one of Africa’s most established producing markets, it sits at the intersection of domestic reform efforts and renewed international interest. Focus has recently shifted towards strengthening the country’s energy architecture, not only to support exports but also to improve resilience within its own system. The intention is clear: to remain globally relevant while addressing long standing structural weaknesses.

More broadly, Nigeria’s position reflects a continental balancing act. African energy markets must serve domestic needs and remain credible partners in global supply chains. The balance is becoming more visible and important as international buyers look beyond short-term solutions and consider future sources.

From discussion to delivery

Investment is the decisive variable. Global capital for energy projects remains, but it is more selective. Access to resources is not enough to secure large-scale funding. Investors seek consistency and credibility, clear regulation, stable taxation, and the confidence that policies will last beyond political cycles.

This places governance at the centre of Africa’s energy story: where frameworks are clear and institutions are stable, capital tends to follow, but where uncertainty dominates, even attractive geology struggles to attract sustained investment. As demand for secure supply rises, the difference between these environments becomes even more consequential.

Against this backdrop, the role of dialogue has taken on renewed importance. The energy system is becoming more fragmented, with governments, producers, financiers and consumers often operating with different priorities and risk appetites. Spaces that allow those interests to intersect are increasingly valuable.

A more active role

Africa’s role in the global energy system is still evolving, but it’s no longer an abstract idea. Industry convenings have changed, too. They are no longer only venues for announcements or positioning. Increasingly, they are spaces where difficult issues are debated and expectations tested. NOG Energy Week, which has convened African stakeholders for decades, shows this evolution. Its relevance now lies in bringing together policymakers, investors and operators when alignment is critical. The challenge, however, is moving beyond conversation. 

The fundamentals are well established: the population is growing, demand is increasing, and there are significant natural resources. Africa’s growing prominence in global energy discussions will ultimately be measured by delivery rather than intent. Progress will depend on a mix of policy, investment, and execution.

What’s next?

What is increasingly clear is that Africa’s participation in global energy security is no longer optional. The continent is already embedded in the system, influencing outcomes whether acknowledged or not. The question now is how effectively that role is shaped, supported and sustained.

In an industry undergoing profound transition, Africa is no longer a peripheral consideration, but an integral part of how global energy security is being redefined.

The center-left Social Democrats, who govern with Merz, aim to block a draft law being prepared by the Economy Ministry, the people said on condition of anonymity as talks take place behind closed doors. The SPD-led Environment Ministry will withhold approval unless the legislation secures carve-outs for renewables elsewhere, they said. 

The tension could further delay legislation in the works for three years, which is aimed at securing Germany’s electricity supply with gas-fired plants when output from wind and solar sources run low. Passage of the package is crucial for kicking off auctions later this year to subsidize the plants. 

Germany, which took its last nuclear plants offline almost three years ago and plans to phase out coal, will benefit from the flexibility of gas-fueled power supply. But Economy Minister Katherina Reiche, a Christian Democratic ally of Merz, has confronted criticism for favoring gas plants over other technologies, such as batteries or flexible demand solutions. 

Critics have accused Reiche of being too cozy with industry. The minister sought feedback from utility EnBW Baden-Württemberg AG and leaned heavily on the company’s arguments in favor of gas plants over batteries, according to Der Spiegel magazine. The move skirted rules requiring such exchanges to be logged in a lobby register, it said. 

The ministry said collecting input from stakeholders is standard practice in preparing legislation, according to a spokesperson. 

The carve-outs requested by the Environment Ministry concern a different piece of legislation aimed at addressing backlogs in the power grid. According to a draft seen by Bloomberg, solar and wind farms in areas with grid congestions should no longer receive compensation during times of power curtailment, a move that would weaken returns but reduce burdens for taxpayers.

Environment Minister Carsten Schneider already said last month that such a plan has “no consensus in the government.” But Reiche again defended her proposal to cut back renewable subsidies in an essay in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper last week. 

An Economy Ministry spokesperson said the legislation will be introduced “shortly.” The Environment Ministry referred questions to the Finance Ministry, which declined to comment. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Bharat Petroleum Corp., Gail India Ltd. and Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. bought shipments for delivery between April and June at below $16 per million British thermal units, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The supplies were purchased in tenders that closed on April 15, said the traders, who asked not to be named because they’re not authorized to speak to media.

The purchases mark a turnaround after Indian buyers had earlier limited spot buying and canceled tenders because offers were too expensive.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on the world’s largest LNG export plant in Qatar, have disrupted a fifth of the world’s supply of the super-chilled fuel. India is among the hardest-hit consumers, with LNG deliveries down 14% compared with the same time last year on a 30-day moving average, ship data shows.

The latest move comes after spot prices fell to the lowest level in over a month. Prices more than doubled after the war began, rising to roughly $25 per million Btu and forcing Indian buyers to curb purchases and reduce supplies to industrial customers. Still, prices remain about 50% higher than pre-war levels.

Indian Oil Corp. canceled a purchase tender that was scheduled to close on April 15, traders said.

More News:

• Argentina’s Enarsa received six offers for its buy tender for two May LNG cargoes
• Edison SpA said it has replaced most Qatari gas supplies disrupted by the war, and sees no immediate risk to serving its customers in Italy
• Japan sees a high probability of above-average temperatures across the country next month, according to Japan Meteorological Agency
  • Very high temperature warnings were issued on Thursday for April 22-30 for the Kanto-Koshin region

Drivers:

• European natural gas prices steadied, as traders focus on signs the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire and restart talks about ending the Middle East conflict
• US natural gas futures ended slightly higher as traders weighed expectations of another larger-than-normal injection into US storage against production levels falling to the lowest in months
• China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on April 15 was 112k tons, 33% lower than a year ago, according to ship-tracking data
• European gas-storage levels were ~30% full on April 14, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~42%
• Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 235k tons/day on April 15, 12% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
• Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~19.7 bcf/day on April 15, down 1.4% w/w: BNEF

Buy tender:

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Results from oil and gas production and trading are expected to rise significantly in the quarter, the French energy giant said in a trading update Thursday, ahead of earnings due later this month.

The outbreak of war at the end of February upended markets from crude to jet fuel as shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz chokepoint came to a near standstill. Europe’s oil majors have large trading operations that often profit from increased volatility. Shell Plc and BP Plc both reported strong trading performance for the quarter.

Total’s trading arm embarked on one of the biggest-ever buying sprees of Middle Eastern oil last month as the war intensified, adding to the upward pressure on prices. It had already been snapping up crude from the North Sea before the start of the conflict, tightening near-term supply.

The company managed to keep oil and gas production in line with the previous quarter as new projects in Brazil and Libya mitigated the decline in Middle East output. Tankers and gas carriers were prevented from transiting Hormuz, triggering shut-ins in countries including Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — all places where Total operates. 

Key energy assets across the Persian Gulf have also been halted because of Iranian strikes. Total said last week that the Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia, a joint venture with Saudi Aramco, was shut after suffering damage in an attack.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The country’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow traveled to Oman this week to negotiate emergency fuel supplies and press for the safe passage of Thai vessels through the strategic waterway. Iranian projectiles last month struck the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree and killed three crew members.

Agriculture Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit, meanwhile, asked Russia to supply 1 to 2 million tons of urea fertilizer annually at “friendly rates.” Companies such as PhosAgro PJSC and Ural Chem Co. have expressed interest in long-term contracts.

Despite talk of a US-Iran ceasefire extension, policymakers are still on high alert in Southeast Asia, which depends heavily on the Middle East for energy and key agricultural inputs. Thailand has about three months of oil supply and roughly one month of fertilizer reserves if shipments continue to be disrupted.

Fuel, particularly diesel, and fertilizers are critical to Thailand’s economy, supporting factories, farms and millions of rural households reliant on rice and other crops. More than half of Thailand’s oil and urea fertilizer imports come from the Middle East, much of it shipped through Hormuz.

Rising fertilizer costs are already threatening the main planting season between May and July, when demand peaks. Higher input costs could cut output by 21%, resulting in a 19% decline in farmers’ income, according to a note from Kasikorn Research Center. In the week ended April 8, Thai white rice 5% broken — an Asian benchmark — jumped 10%, the biggest gain since August 2023. 

On Wednesday in Washington, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas floated raising public debt ceiling to create fiscal space to manage the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

The Thai government on Saturday approved a 3.7 billion baht ($116 million) relief package to ease the immediate economic impact from the conflict. It also endorsed a broader soft-loan package to support longer-term adjustment, including 5 billion baht for clean energy measures, 30 billion baht for farmers, and 100 billion baht for small and medium-sized enterprises.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Aluminum, another commodity heavily affected by the conflict, saw production rise as smelters took advantage of record margins and the opportunity to plug a global shortfall of the metal.

Refining output fell in March by 2.2% year-on-year to 61.67 million tons, according to the statistics bureau on Thursday, with the decline compounded by the industry’s seasonal maintenance schedules. Aluminum increased 2.7% to 3.85 million tons, close to record levels. Much of the additional metal is likely destined for overseas, to compensate for production losses in the Middle East, which accounts for about 9% of the global total. 

The data for March captures the first wave of a supply shock that’s testing China’s vaunted energy resilience, forcing factories to bear higher overheads in power, packaging and shipping costs. Still, China’s economic growth rebounded more than expected in the first quarter, suggesting limited spillover so far from the war in Iran.

Oil-related sectors are feeling the strain. In recent weeks, petrochemicals makers have had to curtail operations because of a lack of feedstock. State oil refiners are tapping into commercial stockpiles, while smaller, independent outfits have been told to maintain fuel production even if it means losing money. Exports of oil products have been curbed.

In addition to its rapid adoption of renewables, Beijing has insisted on raising fossil fuel production in recent years to meet its energy security needs, an effort made all the more pressing by events in the Persian Gulf. The data for March showed continued gains in natural gas and crude oil, and steady coal output. 

Among other major commodities, steel output continued to fall as mills adjust to structurally weaker demand. The biggest problem has been the collapse in the property market, but now exports are falling too, with shrinking volumes also linked to the war in the Middle East.

On the Wire

China’s new home price declines abated for a second month in March, a sign that the property downturn may finally be reaching a bottom in some cities. 

Shares of Sigenergy Technology Co., a Chinese maker of energy storage equipment, jumped on their Hong Kong debut, a sign of investor demand in an industry swept up in a frenzied rally.

Shares of China’s biggest battery maker surged after it announced plans to expand its footprint in critical minerals and first-quarter net income beat estimates. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. is also pushing for its removal from a Pentagon list of companies tied to China’s military that’s cast a pall over its US prospects.

Gold traders in Hong Kong are commanding higher pay packages, as established global banks compete for talent with new entrants to the city’s growing precious-metals market.

Donald Trump’s bid to block Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz chokes a key Chinese energy supply and risks a showdown with Xi Jinping a month before the two leaders are set to meet in Beijing.

Chinese buyers are coming back to the copper market just as a looming decision on tariffs for the refined metal boosts incentives for more shipments to the US, putting prices on course for fresh records.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Thursday, April 16

• China’s home prices for March, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for March, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
    • 1Q GDP
    • 1Q pork output and inventory
• Sigenergy Technology debuts in HK
• Canton fair in Guangzhou (phase 1 through April 19)
• Antaike base metals conference in Hangzhou
• SHPGX natural gas conference in Beijing, day 1

Friday, April 17

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• SHPGX’s natural gas conference in Beijing, day 2

Saturday, April 18

• China’s 2nd batch of March trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports

(Updates with chart and additional material from fourth paragraph)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Abu Dhabi-headquartered company was named 2026 Steel Sustainability Champion by the World Steel Association for the third consecutive year.

The industry-wide recognition comes after EMSTEEL delivered a 34% reduction in absolute emissions in 2025, compared to its 2019 baseline.

Efficiencies driving growth with fewer emissions

EMSTEEL operates 14 plants, producing 3.5 million tonnes of steel and 4.6 million tonnes of cement annually.

The group recorded its lowest emissions intensity levels, reaching 0.637 tCO₂e per tonne of steel and 0.638 tCO₂e per tonne of cementitious material. It said the figures demonstrate an ability to decouple growth from emissions through sustained efficiency improvements.

EMSTEEL is one of the largest publicly traded steel and building materials manufacturers in the MENA region, and the only steel company to receive the World Steel distinction. The award recognises companies that demonstrate exceptional commitment to sustainable development and best practices.

A year defined by execution

The milestone reflects EMSTEEL’s continued efforts to further embed sustainability across operations and its leading role in sustainable steelmaking, low-carbon steel, and industrial decarbonisation.

It advanced its decarbonisation roadmap, scaled innovative technologies, and strengthened operational performance across the steel and cement businesses to translate long-term strategy into measurable results.

Clean energy played an increasingly central role, as 88.7% of total electricity consumption in the steel business and 28.6% in the cement business was covered by clean energy certificates. This substantially reduced Scope 2 emissions on a market-based basis.

Carbon capture continued to make meaningful contributions to reducing Scope 1 emissions, while targeted energy efficiency programmes delivered environmental and economic value.

Ongoing decarbonisation initiatives

EMSTEEL’s Group CEO, Eng. Saeed Ghumran Al Remeithi said that again being recognised as a Sustainability Champion reflected its “tangible progress” in advancing lower-carbon steel production.

“Sustainability is at the core of how we operate, innovate, and grow, and this milestone reinforces the strength and consistency of our approach,” he said.

“In 2025, we moved from ambition to execution, advancing key decarbonisation initiatives while maintaining strong operational performance.”

Al Remeithi added: “Our focus remains on delivering practical and scalable solutions that support the transition to lower-carbon industries and create long-term value.”

Among EMSTEEL's industrial innovations was the launch of its first Electric Process Gas Heater (ePGH), progress on green hydrogen initiatives, and scaling circular solutions that convert industrial by-products into valuable low-carbon inputs through its TrueGreen framework.

Emissions dropped by 98.3% from 2007 levels, meaning the facility achieved its ambitious mission in 2025 — five years before any other UK port.

The busy Short Straits (Strait of Dover) accounts for 8% of all UK maritime emissions, making the announcement significant for decarbonisation in the industry.

Impactful measures

Dover, in the south-east of England, is the UK’s busiest international ferry port for passengers, a major freight hub, and the closest port to mainland France. It handles 33% of all trade in goods with the EU, more than 10 million passengers, and two million freight vehicles annually.

The port pursued a range of initiatives to meet its emissions goals.

These included purchasing sustainably sourced HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) for machinery operations and installing 1.5MW of on-site solar generation. It also introduced general energy-efficiency improvements, such as buying renewable electricity and installing LED lighting and heating controls.

Residual emissions were offset through a local regenerative farming scheme, issued under the UK Carbon Code of Conduct.

Dover also recently achieved recertification under the EcoPorts environmental management standard — the only port-specific environmental management classification — for a fourth time.

Setting a greener course

Doug Bannister, Port of Dover CEO, said the milestone meant the facility had seen its carbon emissions “reduce drastically” from almost 14,000 tonnes 18 years ago, but was “not stopping here”.

He commented: “This sustainability drive is an essential part of our Port of Dover 2050 Masterplan. We want Dover to be a global leader putting the UK on the global stage as home to the world’s first high-volume Green Shipping Corridor here on the Short Straits.”  

A route to cleaner cruising

Aviation, Maritime and Decarbonisation Minister Keir Mather added that the Port of Dover was “charting the course for a cleaner maritime future, showing net-zero port operations are becoming a reality in Britain”.  

And the port’s cruise boss welcomed the announcement for Dover as a major homeporting and transit destination.

“With passenger numbers growing, delivering our operations sustainably is vital to the continuing success of the Dover cruise business,” said Peter Wright, Head of Cruise. “The cruise industry is at the forefront of efforts to build sustainability in the wider maritime sector.”

State Grid Corp. of China, which supplies power to over 80% of the country, will raise operational capacity from 45 gigawatts to 78 gigawatts by 2030, in a bid to bolster the country’s record-breaking renewables expansion, according to the official State Grid News. 

The utility will join smaller peer China Southern Power Grid Co. in helping to deliver on the the government’s five-year plan, which calls for an additional 100 gigawatts of pumped hydro by 2030.

State Grid plans to add more than 30 gigawatts of new capacity by then, with another 30 gigawatts under construction. Pumped hydro is a long-standing means of storing energy at scale and uses water released downhill to generate electricity.

Storage is becoming more critical in China, particularly for a renewables sector that’s seeing mounting curtailments because of bottlenecks in the grid. Unlike batteries, which are better over short durations, pumped hydro can store energy for many hours or even days. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to announce the aid, which may include loans, during a virtual meeting with regional leaders set for Wednesday afternoon, public broadcaster NHK said. Kyodo News and the Yomiuri newspaper reported similar.

Japan imports petroleum-related products used in medical settings from Southeast Asia and there are concerns some countries’ low oil reserves could disrupt supplies, according to the reports.

The prime minister’s office wasn’t immediately available for a request for comment.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said at a media briefing earlier Wednesday that Japan is “considering mutual cooperation with Asian countries from the perspective of securing the supply of products made from petroleum products and strengthening the supply chain.”

Should procurement be disrupted, it could have a negative impact on Japan’s healthcare system, according to the local media reports. The country plans to provide financial support via the government-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Kyodo said, citing unnamed government officials.

Southeast Asian nations including Vietnam have previously sought help from Japan, as well as from South Korea, for crude oil supplies. Japan has tapped on its strategic reserves in two tranches since the Iran war began some six weeks ago, but has said its own stockpiles are meant for domestic refiners and not for foreign nations.

Japan itself isn’t facing an immediate oil shortage. The trade ministry said the country can secure sufficient crude supply for this year by sourcing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, where transit remains constrained, and by drawing on its substantial oil reserves.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The monthly oil market report (MOMR) reveals sharp falls in crude output for OPEC producers in the Gulf such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait during March, coupled with a longer-term picture showing continued strong need for supply as consumption rebounds in later months.

Outlook robust beyond demand dip

OPEC, in its first public assessment of the impact of the US/Israel-Iran war, lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day — an average 105.07 mbpd, down from the 105.57 mbpd forecast in the previous month’s report.

But it made no change to its full-year outlook.

Oil and gas prices soared globally in March amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, transit route for one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas. The energy supply crunch has impacted consumers and businesses globally and prompted government action, such as work-from-home initiatives, to conserve supplies and curb demand.

In its report, OPEC said: “Demand growth for the second quarter of 2026 is revised down for both the OECD and non-OECD (countries), driven mainly by slight transitory weakness ‌in oil demand growth, given ongoing developments in the Middle East.”

The report reveals that overall member country production plunged 27% month-on-month from 28.7 million bpd (mbpd) to 20.8 mbpd.

Sunnier forecast for growth

OPEC’s outlook going into summer and beyond is more optimistic.

“In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mbpd year on year, driven almost entirely by demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, India and Other Asia,” it reports.

On a quarterly basis, it says global oil demand in 2026 is set to grow by about 1.5 mbpd year on year in Q1, 0.9 mbpd year on year in Q2, 1.6 mbpd year on year in Q3 and 1.6 mbpd year on year in Q4.

It expects the “slight transitory weakness in oil demand growth” in the second quarter to be compensated in the third and fourth quarters.

Figures under scrutiny

OPEC has predicted less war-related impact on world oil demand in 2026 when compared to some other forecasters, such as the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).

OPEC’s forecast that demand will continue to rise remains unchanged, in stark contrast to the EIA which halved its outlook prediction in an April 7 report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), also slashed its oil demand growth forecast, due to Middle East and Asia-Pacific contraction. It said Hormuz closure and energy infrastructure attacks prompted it to reverse previous forecasts of a sizeable surplus.

Now predicting an 80,000 bpd downsize in demand growth this year — from a 640,000 bpd rise in March — the IEA says the conflict has “thoroughly upended the global outlook for oil consumption”.

Based on a severe scenario of longer-term supply disruptions, it suggests demand could shrink by 5 mbpd year on year on average from the second quarter to the fourth quarter.

Economies need energy

OPEC says global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, suggesting demand for energy.

The demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in 2026 “remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.9 mbpd ... about 0.6 mbpd higher than in 2025,” says the report.

“The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.6 mbpd. This is about 0.6 mbpd higher than the 2026 forecast.”

The state also plans to issue a request for proposals to potential development partners this year, according to Todd Josifovski, senior vice president of nuclear development at the New York Power Authority. 

Eight upstate communities are vying for the project, which could involve a single large reactor or multiple smaller units. Governor Kathy Hochul directed NYPA last year to develop 1 gigawatt of new nuclear capacity, and in January she raised that goal to 5 gigawatts.

Power consumption is climbing across the US, driven by data centers, industrial users and more electrified homes. That trend is spurring interest in nuclear energy, and President Donald Trump has set a goal of seeing 10 large conventional reactors under construction in the US by 2030. Josifovski said it’s too early to provide a schedule for any New York efforts, but selecting a site would mark a key early step.

“The fundamental table stakes is to have a willing host community,” Josifovski said Tuesday at the NY Energy Summit in Albany. “As soon as we can, we want to have that shored up and make sure it’s workable for the community, and workable for the project.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Benchmark futures hovered between small gains and losses, with trading volumes picking up after a tepid start in Asia.

Washington and Tehran are in discussions on holding more negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire, people familiar with the matter said. The goal is to hold them before a two-week ceasefire announced April 7 expires, they said.

Energy markets have been roiled by the conflict in the Middle East and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas from global markets. 

Earlier this week, the US raised the stakes with its own blockade of vessels heading for or leaving Iran’s Gulf ports or coastal areas. That’s added nervousness to an already volatile market, which is also coping with extended trading hours amid relatively low liquidity.

Asian LNG imports have dropped to the lowest in almost six years, potentially offering some respite to European buyers competing for the fuel. Europe needs more LNG this year to replenish its depleted gas inventories in time for next winter, and traders remain on high alert. 

There’s still a risk of escalation and European gas prices face a “significant upside risk,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Patricio Alvarez said in a note. BI’s “extended conflict scenario” implies the European price could double or even triple from current levels, with Asia at greater risk of sharper spikes.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded little changed at € a megawatt-hour by 8:58 a.m. in Amsterdam. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The 50% year-on-year jump for the three months ended March 31 was likely also driven by the front-loading of shipments before the phasing-out of an export-tax rebate. The rate was cut to 6% from 9% from April 1 and China will scrap the rebate entirely from next year.

The rise in battery shipments was accompanied by double-digit percentage growth in exports of other green technologies, including electric vehicles and wind turbines, said Wang Jun, deputy director of China’s General Administration of Customs.

“These new growth drivers for exports continued to gain momentum in the first quarter,” Wang said at a briefing on Tuesday. He did not give a reason for the increase.

While battery exports were already trending higher, the first-quarter data marked an acceleration from growth of 26% for full-year 2025.

The war in Iran overlapped with only the final month of the quarter, but the severe and ongoing disruption to global fuel supplies has made energy security a more urgent issue for import-dependent nations. Chinese battery makers, already a dominant force across the supply chain, stand to be among the biggest beneficiaries.

Some companies have already reported a positive impact from this shift. Last week, Ningbo Deye Technology Co., a major battery storage manufacturer, said its profit for the first quarter is likely to increase by as much as 70%, with a notable increase in orders from Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Crude purchases dropped 2.8% from the previous year to 49.982 million tons, although the figure was higher than February, according to China’s customs administration on Tuesday. Imports over the year so far rose 8.9% as China continued to stockpile oil despite weakness in the economy.

Gas imports fell more sharply, down 11% to 8.183 million tons, leaving the year-to-date figure 4% below the pace set in 2025.

Major refiners saw fewer cargoes from Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, after the US and Israeli attack against Iran that began on Feb. 28 effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to traffic. At the same time, the smaller independent plants that had been prepared to ignore sanctions have has their access curtailed to the heavily discounted Iranian crude they’ve relied on to protect razor-thin margins. 

Chinese oil product exports fell 12% to 4.601 million tons, after the government imposed curbs to conserve domestic fuel supplies. Beijing has allowed state refiners to tap commercial reserves to help weather an unprecedented supply shock that’s only likely to worsen as the US Navy disputes Iran’s control of the key waterway. 

Gas purchases slumped even though nearly half of Chinese supply arrives overland from Russia, Central Asia and Myanmar. China won’t break out its seaborne imports until later this week, but ship-tracking data shows liquefied natural gas cargoes plunged 22% in March from the previous year to 3.74 million tons.

The seaborne market is facing prolonged disruptions. China took roughly a quarter of its LNG from Qatar, which will take years to restore operations after Iranian strikes against the world’s biggest export facility. But with pipelines running at capacity, there’s not much leeway in the short term for China’s overland suppliers to pick up the slack.

Other Commodities

Other commodities saw bigger-than-usual swings in trade due to the impact of the war on shipping costs, supply and demand.

• Aluminum exports fell 5%, although overseas sales are expected to pick up as buyers turn to China to offset production losses from the Middle East
• Steel exports fell 13% — Saudi Arabia was China’s fastest-growing major overseas market last year
• Iron ore purchases rose 11% after fewer weather-related shipping disruptions in top exporter Australia, while copper metal imports fell 11% and copper ore rose 10%
• Rare earth exports fell 27% as domestic supply tightened
• Coal imports inched up, despite gains in international prices and an output cap in top supplier Indonesia
• Soybean imports rose 15% as Brazilian shipments competed with more US cargoes after the trade truce with Washington

On the Wire

A hoard of Iranian crude on tankers at sea and robust onshore stockpiles in China will provide a cushion for the nation’s independent refiners should a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz choke off flows.

China’s state-backed iron ore buyer has told several steel mills in the country they are allowed to purchase some BHP Group cargoes, an apparent concession in a months-long commercial dispute.

A US-sanctioned tanker linked to China is making its way through the Strait of Hormuz, testing President Donald Trump’s naval blockade.

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March from previous months, reflecting intensifying strains on the world’s No. 2 economy as the war in Iran upends global energy supply.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. is considering a share sale to raise as much as $5 billion in Hong Kong after rallying strongly since its May listing in the city.

The war in Iran is spurring a fresh wave of enthusiasm over prospects for China’s currency to more effectively rival the US dollar.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Tuesday, April 14

• China’s March trade balance and 1st batch of trade data, ~11:00
  • Crude oil, natural gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports
  • Iron ore, copper & steel imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports
  • Soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
• EARNINGS: Hengli Petrochemical

Wednesday, April 15

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• Canton fair in Guangzhou (phase 1 through April 19)
• EARNINGS: CATL

Thursday, April 16

• China’s home prices for March, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for March, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
    • 1Q GDP
    • 1Q pork output and inventory
• Antaike base metals conference in Hangzhou
• SHPGX natural gas conference in Beijing, day 1

Friday, April 17

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• SHPGX’s natural gas conference in Beijing, day 2

Saturday, April 18

• China’s 2nd batch of March trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports

(Updates with chart, other commodities from eighth paragraph, and published-item and diary sections)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The blockade cuts off vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas, raising the risk of further disruption to global energy flows.

But even amid that latest escalation, the US and Iran are discussing another round of negotiations after talks in Islamabad over the weekend ended without a deal, according to people familiar with the matter. The goal is to hold fresh talks before a two-week ceasefire announced April 7 expires next week, they said.

Saudi Arabia, a key US partner, is pushing Washington to halt the blockade, fearing it could prompt Tehran to escalate tensions and disrupt other regional shipping routes, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Arab officials it did not name. 

A vessel under US sanctions and linked to China is making its way through the Strait of Hormuz, testing the blockade. The Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker earlier known as Full Star, is trying for the second time in less than 24 hours to exit the waterway.

Disruptions in the strait pose risks for China, which remains Iran’s largest oil customer and a key trade partner. Beijing has called for an immediate ceasefire, warning that a blockade threatens global trade.

Trump said Iran had reached out to his administration. “We’ve been called this morning by the right people, and they want to work a deal,” he told reporters at the White House, without elaborating.

The president repeated claims that negotiations had failed due to Iran’s insistence on maintaining a nuclear program. Trump said any deal would require Iran to abandon its atomic ambitions.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation in the first round of talks, left the next step to Tehran. “We did make some progress in the negotiation,” he said in a Monday interview on Fox News, adding that the talks helped clarify red lines. Asked about another meeting, Vance said the question was “best put to the Iranians, because the ball really is in their court.”

The New York Times, citing people familiar with the talks, reported, that the US proposed a 20-year suspension of nuclear activity, while Iran countered with a plan to halt it for up to five years, similar to an offer made in February.

Iran blamed the collapse of talks over the weekend on the US, but left the door open for more negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was prepared to continue discussions within a framework of international law, according to a statement on a government news portal.

Earlier: US and Iran Mull Second Meeting in Bid to Revive Ceasefire Talks

Oil dropped on signs Washington and Tehran may revive talks, with Brent down about 1.5% to $97.85 a barrel. Asian stocks advanced in Tuesday morning trade.

Trump’s blockade will test the durability of a fragile ceasefire with Iran and intensify a global energy crisis in a six-week war that’s seen thousands of deaths across the region. It marks the latest move by the US president to strongarm Iran into easing its own chokehold over the strait.

“We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world,” Trump said. 

Iran warned it would target ports across the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened, raising the risk of a wider confrontation. Its armed forces said security in the region must be “either for everyone or for no one,” calling any US move to block the strait “an act of piracy,” according to the state-run IRIB News.

Trump has warned Iran against charging fees for vessels to transit the strait. Vance sidestepped a question about whether that would be a red line for Iran in talks, saying that “we need to see the Strait of Hormuz fully open.”

Trump had warned shortly after the deadline passed that the US would target Iranian ships, using the same tactics it did against alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean Sea in recent months.

“What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, ‘fast attack ships,’ because we did not consider them much of a threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea,” Trump said in a social-media post. 

Still, Trump looked to downplay concerns around the further potential shock to global energy markets, claiming in a separate post that 34 ships had transited the strait on Sunday, “by far the highest number since this foolish closure began.” Bloomberg reported earlier that 19 vessels passed through the waterway in either direction on Sunday.

The US has warned it will intercept or divert vessels leaving Iran, while allowing neutral ships to pass, though they may be searched for contraband. The blockade will be enforced against vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, US Central Command said.

While the US and Israel have paused strikes on Iran, Israel continues its campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah. The conflict remains a key sticking point in broader ceasefire negotiations, with talks between Israel and Lebanon set for Tuesday in Washington. 

(Updates with news reports from paragraph 4, market moves.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

After a latest round of regular coalition talks late Sunday in Berlin, Merz said his government will be pushing in EU negotiations to ensure that excess emissions above a 90% target won’t have to be fully offset after 2035.

Vehicles powered exclusively by renewable fuels — including “advanced biofuels” — should be immediately counted as zero-emission, and the government also rejects proposed EU mandates to boost EVs in corporate fleets, according to a coalition policy paper distributed Monday in Berlin.

“There must be no cliff edge for these key technologies,” Merz told reporters, reiterating a call for “full technological openness” for vehicle motors. “We are entering the negotiations with Brussels united and with determination,” the conservative leader said.

Merz’s coalition of his CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats is pushing ahead with a bid to ease the burden on domestic carmakers like Volkswagen AG, BMW AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG that are struggling with geopolitical turmoil and strengthening competition from China.

Germany’s previous SPD-led government had lobbied against a combustion-engine ban and pushed for a carve-out for vehicles running on so-called e-fuels made using renewable electricity and captured carbon dioxide.

“I am firmly convinced that the future of the automotive industry is electric, but that we need flexibility and openness on the way there,” Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, the vice chancellor and SPD co-leader, said alongside Merz.

Germany’s latest intervention shows the extent to which divisions remain in the EU over how to ensure the region’s carmakers can survive the climate transition while competing effectively with Chinese rivals in the electric-vehicle segment.

The European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, in December proposed to continue allowing a limited share of combustion vehicles on the bloc’s roads after 2035, having previously agreed on an effective ban.

Under the latest proposals challenged by Germany, emissions from the tailpipe would still have to be cut by 90% by 2035, but carmakers could use green steel and renewable fuels to offset the remaining 10%.

Member states and the European Parliament are negotiating the rules before agreeing their final shape over the coming months.

While Germany is looking for further flexibilities, other car producing countries like Spain and Sweden have warned against any more watering down of the bloc’s climate ambition amid concerns that it could put Europe behind in the race with China to ramp up EV sales.

In recent weeks, car drivers have also been exposed to surging fuel prices resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

In addition to the extra wiggle room on the headline targets, Germany is also looking to suspend further tightening of the so-called utility factor, a metric that is used to calculate emissions from plug-in hybrids.

Critics say that it is based on lab assumptions that significantly understate real-world pollution.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Dangote appointed Stanbic IBTC Capital Ltd., Vetiva Advisory Services Ltd. and FirstCap Ltd. to advise on the IPO for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Fze, FirstCap Chief Executive Officer Ukandu Ukandu said by email.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” Frank Mwiti, CEO of the Nairobi exchange said after a meeting last week between the heads of African exchanges and billionaire Dangote in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital.

A spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed the meeting between exchange officials, but declined to disclose details.

The share sale across multiple African exchanges would be a first for the continent. It will help deepen equity markets in Nigeria — which is poised to return to the FTSE Russell frontier-markets benchmark — and other nations where it lists. Dangote plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years, rivaling fellow billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s facility in India.

Dangote’s refinery currently has the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of oil per day. The African Export-Import Bank last month said it’s underwritten $2.5 billion of a $4 billion syndicated facility intended for the refinery expansion. 

The facility’s expansion is part of at least $40 billion that Dangote plans to spend to fund a growth drive over the next five years that also includes quadrupling fertilizer output and more than doubling its oil refinery capacity.

Apart from Nigeria, the plant has been selling refined fuel to African nations, which are struggling to obtain gasoline and diesel supplies because of the US-Israel war on Iran. 

Dangote, the chairman of the refinery, earlier this month met with officials of the Nigerian Exchange Group as well as member organizations of the African Securities Exchanges Association to discuss enabling investor participation across African markets in the IPO, according to a spokesman for the Nigerian exchange. 

Next Africa newsletterhereAppleSpotify anywhere you listen

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“We call for the restoration of the safe, unimpeded, and continuous transit passage of vessels and aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations said in a statement on Monday. They also urged all parties to ensure the safety of seafarers and ships.

The US military said it would implement a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. on Monday Washington time, adding that it would allow other vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz if they’re not stopping in the Islamic Republic.

“We urge the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran to continue negotiations that will lead to the permanent end of the conflict and lasting peace and stability in the region,” Asean said.

The ministers also called for the “full and effective” implementation of the ceasefire to prevent further loss of lives in the conflict that began in late February.

The top diplomats from the bloc, many of whose members source oil from the Middle East, met virtually on Monday to discuss the war in the Middle East.

Officials agreed to boost cooperation to respond to challenges affecting Asean, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said in a briefing.

“This meeting also discussed prioritizing energy supply to fellow Asean member states in times of crisis,” Lazaro said.

(Updates with comments from Philippine foreign affairs chief.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

More than six weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, customers hoping to shield themselves from the extra costs are increasingly turning to greener solutions.

Ningbo Deye Technology Co., a major producer of energy storage systems and inverters, said last week it expects first-quarter profit to climb as much as 70% on a surge in overseas orders. Meanwhile, exports of Chinese-made electric vehicles and hybrids more than doubled in March to a record 349,000 units, as higher fuel prices renew the appetite for alternatives to gasoline-powered cars. 

Deye attributed the jump in profit directly to geopolitical turmoil, with households and companies in Europe and Southeast Asia increasingly looking to battery storage. Automakers such as BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are likewise benefiting, with industry observers noting parallels with the 1970s oil shock, when Japan gained global market share by offering fuel‑efficient cars during a period of sustained turmoil.

Chinese firms are uniquely well-positioned, given their dominance of clean energy supply chains from solar panels to batteries and EVs. Years spent building up capacity, often at the expense of profitability, have allowed them to quickly scale-up distribution at competitive prices. 

But the export boom also masks continued weakness at home. Domestic EV and hybrid sales fell again in March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. 

China’s pivot to consumption-led growth has yet to materialize, leaving it overly reliant on foreign buyers. In the event of a prolonged war, the hit to the global economy could shrink overseas demand — and sharply reverse the gains made in the first weeks of the conflict. 

On the Wire

US President Donald Trump’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz risks deepening an unfolding economic crisis for Asia’s energy-dependent economies, including America’s allies in the region and China. 

China has cushions to damp the oil shock from the Iran war, according to Bloomberg Economics. But an extended conflict would present bigger threats — demand destruction in overseas markets and supply-chain snags that could hurt exports.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is cutting its passenger capacity following a surge in jet fuel costs.

Shares in Chinese rare earth companies advanced after key producers announced a sharp increase in second-quarter product prices, signaling tighter supply conditions and stronger demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

China has indicated it will halt exports of sulfuric acid from May, hitting metals and fertilizer industries already strained by raw material bottlenecks resulting from the Iran war.

This Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing)

Monday, April 13

• Nothing major scheduled

Tuesday, April 14

• China’s March trade balance and 1st batch of trade data, ~11:00
  • Crude oil, natural gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports
  • Iron ore, copper & steel imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports
  • Soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports; fertilizer exports
• EARNINGS: Hengli Petrochemical

Wednesday, April 15

• CCTD’s weekly online briefing on coal markets, 15:00
• Canton fair in Guangzhou (phase 1 through April 19)
• EARNINGS: CATL

Thursday, April 16

• China’s home prices for March, 09:30
• China’s industrial output for March, including steel & aluminum; coal, gas & power generation; and crude oil & refining, 10:00
  • Retail sales, fixed assets investment, property investment, residential sales, jobless rate
    • 1Q GDP
    • 1Q pork output and inventory
• Antaike base metals conference in Hangzhou
• SHPGX natural gas conference in Beijing, day 1

Friday, April 17

• China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
• SHFE’s weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
• SHPGX’s natural gas conference in Beijing, day 2

Saturday, April 18

• China’s 2nd batch of March trade data
  • Grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
  • Oil products imports & exports breakdown; LNG & pipeline gas imports
  • Bauxite, steel and aluminum imports; rare-earth product, alumina and copper exports

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

US forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, the US Central Command said. They won’t impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, Centcom said.

The failure of the peace talks raises concerns that LNG supply through the strait, which carried about a fifth of the world’s supply of the fuel before the war started at the end of February, will be hampered for longer. Oil and European natural gas surged in Asian trading on Monday.

Traders will be closely monitoring how aggressive China — the world’s top LNG buyer last year — refills its storage, and whether it needs to pull shipments away from Europe to do so. State-owned oil and gas company China National Petroleum Corp. has this month started injections into major underground storage sites across the west of the nation to ensure sufficient supply.

LNG prices have soared since the conflict broke out, though they have retreated from a high near $25 a million British thermal units in the week after the war started. Optimism the sides could reach a deal after agreeing to a ceasefire pushed prices lower last week, to just above $17.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The structure is part of the country’s Moho offshore exploration and production license. According to TotalEnergies, the well encountered a hydrocarbon column of approximately 160 meters in good-quality Albian reservoirs, and an extensive data acquisition and sampling campaign was carried out to support the subsurface interpretation and future development.

QatarEnergy holds a 15% shareholding position in TotalEnergies E&P Congo (TEPC) which is the operator in the Moho license. TEPC holds a 63.5% share of the license, alongside Trident Energy (21.5%), and Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (15%).

“We are pleased to further strengthen our expanding international portfolio with this promising new discovery in the Republic of Congo. We look forward to working with our strategic partner, TotalEnergies, and with the Congolese Government to develop these resources,” said Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs and the President and CEO of QatarEnergy.

The Moho G discovery, together with the discovery previously made on the nearby Moho F structure, represent recoverable resources estimated at close to 100 million barrels, which are planned to be developed as a tie-back to the existing Moho facilities, TotalEnergies said in a separate statement.

“This new discovery on the Moho license benefits from its proximity to existing production infrastructure, allowing a short cycle, cost effective tie-back development,” said Nicola Mavilla, Senior Vice-President Exploration at TotalEnergies. “By leveraging our technical expertise and existing infrastructure, we are creating the conditions for future value‑accretive production for the company.”

A temporary ceasefire remains shaky. Implementation will take time, peace talks over the weekend broke down, and there could still be a lengthy period of insecurity. Even in the ideal case of a swift peace deal, it will take months to restore normal logistics, restart fields and repair damaged facilities.

For now, every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the world continues to lose about 11 million barrels per day of oil supply out of about 105 million bpd of demand. Physical Brent crude prices have topped $140 per barrel and jet fuel prices exceed $200.

Also cut off are 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, some 40% of nitrogen-based fertiliser exports, 45% of sulphur exports, nearly 39% of helium, about 34% of methanol exports, from 9-15% of polymers, and 22% of non-Chinese aluminium production. Production of these energy-intensive commodities elsewhere will also be slashed by the loss of oil and gas feedstock.

Planning for a long crisis

The best way to make this into a short-lived crisis is to plan for a long one.

One of the key lessons from the 1970s oil crises was that much of the harm was self-inflicted. Governments’ well-intentioned efforts to cushion the shock instead delayed adjustment and worsened the economic harm. The iconic pictures of drivers queueing for petrol are because of government price controls – indeed, some of these photos date from earlier in 1973, before the October embargo.

Governments also tried various well-intentioned but economically-damaging conservation policies. Edward Heath’s administration in Britain brought in the infamous three-day working week, as a coal miners’ strike coincided with the oil shock.

This time, numerous Asian countries have introduced direct measures to cut energy consumption. Bangladesh has set air-conditioning at higher temperatures and turned off unnecessary lighting. South Korea has asked people to take shorter showers. Ethiopia has told non-essential workers to go on leave. After the Covid-era experience, work-from-home policies are a reasonable approach to cut fuel use in commuting, and cooling offices.

Direct income support

However, capping fuel prices, cutting fuel taxes, or subsidising energy bills, are expensive policies. Major consumers – India, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam – have introduced such measures or are considering them.

Better would be direct income support for lower-income people. More generally, governments should accelerate the deployment of electric vehicles. The UK, for example, could cancel its recent increases on taxes on EVs. With soaring diesel and petrol prices, battery cars are now cost-savers as well as environmentally friendly, but some people may need help to buy one.

Governments can make public transport free for a period, and run more services of buses and trains. City authorities can designate additional bike paths and try to encourage the uptake of e-bikes and electric three-wheelers (tuk-tuks or rickshaws).

Restricting exports

Another popular policy is to restrict oil exports. China has temporarily banned the export of refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline (petrol), though easing this for a few favoured Asian countries. Thailand has also suspended exports. India has introduced export taxes for oil products. South Korea has limited exports to no more than 2025 levels and banned the export of naphtha outright. Even the US might limit its shipments of crude oil, refined products or both, if rising domestic fuel prices present a political liability to President Donald Trump.

The intention here is to avoid shortages on the domestic market, and keep prices at home lower than on the international market. But such “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies are very dangerous. Countries without adequate refining capacity, such as Australia, New Zealand and Sri Lanka, could find themselves competing for a very small pool of available exports.

Impact on the refining sector

The whole refining sector would become extremely inefficient if refineries cannot export products which are in relative surplus. They would have to cut back runs, worsening the crisis.

It is not in the interests of China, for example, to undermine the minerals industries in Australia, or Congo, or Indonesia, from which it gets much of its raw materials, by cutting off their diesel supplies. The food shock will be magnified if farm machinery and irrigation pumps cannot run.

Unlike 2022 and the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this crisis is primarily an oil rather than gas crisis. Electricity prices are, for most countries, a secondary concern this time, though still serious. For instance, Pakistan, which suffered badly from LNG cut-offs in 2022, has improved its position greatly by successfully installing some 27-33 gigawatts of solar power, mostly distributed panels.

Relying on other resources

Many Asian countries are turning back to coal for power generation, trying to restart nuclear reactors as in Japan and South Korea, and hastening renewable deployment. Indonesia, a laggard in renewable energy, now wants to build 100 gigawatts of solar power. Even Germany is rethinking its disastrous nuclear phase-out, although it will not be quick or easy to bring the six remaining reactors back to service.

But two of the big LNG users, China and India, hardly consume gas for power generation, so such policies will have limited impact. Saving gas and oil in industry through efficiency measures is key. So too are measures to encourage the wisest use of fertilisers, which are heavily and inefficiently subsidised in India.

One of the most controversial policies, at least in Europe, is encouraging more domestic oil and gas production. In most cases, additional hydrocarbon production in the short term will be small. It will reduce global energy prices only marginally.

On the other hand, it is better than importing, from the viewpoint of economy, environment and security. It will bring some tax revenues and employment to European countries that are badly short of both. It will be funded by private money, so it does not compete with government support for low-carbon energy. And if the production is small, the climate impact will likewise be small.

Speeding up the transition

But, contra the opponents of “net-zero” carbon policies, if Europe, Australia and others had not built so much renewable capacity since 2022, they would be coming into this crisis in a much worse position.

This energy crisis will dramatically accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power. It clears away many of the arguments about the supposed greater reliability and affordability of hydrocarbons. The job of governments is to manage the inevitable short-term dislocations – which will be agonising for many – while speeding the longer-term transition.

• Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

The Ministry said operational and technical efforts have restored pumping capacity through the East–West pipeline to approximately 7 million barrels per day, recovering around 700,000 barrels per day lost following the attacks. 

The Ministry also confirmed that output from the Manifa oil field, where production had been reduced by about 300,000 barrels per day, has also been fully restored.

However, work is still ongoing to restore the Khurais oilfield to full capacity, which had also seen output reduced by around 300,000 barrels per day. Full production is expected to be announced once restoration is complete.

Operational resilience and reliability

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the Ministry said, “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the Kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy.”

The East–West pipeline, which transports crude oil from the Kingdom’s eastern production areas to export terminals on the Red Sea, has played a critical role in maintaining export flows amid regional shipping disruptions.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of Energy confirmed that a series of attacks on energy facilities had temporarily reduced oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day. The Ministry did not assign responsibility for the attacks.

The latest announcement comes after the Ministry confirmed on 9 April that major refining facilities, including SATORP in Jubail, Ras Tanura refinery, SAMREF refinery in Yanbu, and Riyadh refinery had also been hit, as well as processing facilities in Ju’aymah, which impacted exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.