The country is estimated to have bought about 5.29 million tons of the super-chilled fuel this month, according to the ship-tracking researcher, comparable to last year’s traded volumes. 

Lower domestic output, depleting storage levels, a hot summer, and international prices falling from highs reached during the peak of the US-Iran war all contributed to the uptick. While the nation’s LNG imports have been sluggish over the past months, as buyers choose cheaper pipeline gas, the renewed appetite could intensify competition with other buyers in Asia and Europe before winter.

China’s domestic gas production fell 2.1% year on year to around 21.7 billion cubic meters in May, the first annual decline for the month in more than a decade, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The drop in output is mainly due to offshore disruptions and maintenance at some processing plants, according to Go Katayama, a principal insight analyst for LNG at Kpler.

Storage levels were around 46% at the end of May, below the five-year seasonal average, and are expected to fall further by end-June, Katayama said. “This leaves China with a relatively thin inventory buffer ahead of July and August, supporting continued spot LNG purchases.”

The war in the Middle East has choked shipments from the Gulf, which typically supplies about a third of China’s LNG, though the drop in deliveries from Qatar has mostly been offset through other sources, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Demand in China is expected to remain elevated through August, though it should soften in the fourth quarter as domestic production recovers and petrochemical gas consumption weakens, Katayama said. Total imports this year are seen at 63.8 million tons, slightly below the 2025 level, as elevated spot prices continue to weigh on industrial use, he said.

More News:

• Pakistan LNG is seeking to purchase a cargo on a DES basis for June 30-July 4 delivery
• GAIL India purchased an LNG cargo on a DES basis for July 25-Aug. 10 delivery at the low-to-mid $14/mmbtu range
• Pakistan is seeking to buy liquefied natural gas for delivery this week as a string of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts flows of the super-chilled fuel
• A liquefied natural gas tanker docked at a US-sanctioned storage unit in Russia’s Murmansk region, the first time the vessel has loaded blacklisted fuel and the latest sign of Moscow’s efforts to expand exports despite Western sanctions

Drivers:

• European natural gas climbed as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was put to the test by strikes over the weekend, despite both sides agreeing to halt attacks for now
• China’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports on June 28 was 178k tons, 11% higher than this time last year, according to ship-tracking data
• European gas-storage levels were ~48% full on June 27, compared with the five-year seasonal average of ~63%
• Europe’s 30-day moving average for LNG imports was 158k tons/day on June 28, 1.3% higher than the five-year seasonal average, according to ship-tracking data
• Estimated flows to all US export terminals were ~18.8 bcf/day on June 28, down 2.4% w/w: BNEF

Buy tender:

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Brent was near $72 a barrel after jumping as much as 1.9% at the start of trading, while West Texas Intermediate was around $70. Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely before peace talks resume this week, according to a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Oil has erased almost all of its gains since the US and Israel first attacked Iran at the end of February. About a fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas traveled through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, and a resumption in negotiations offers the prospect of a more permanent peace deal that will see a full reopening of the key waterway.

“The market feels increasingly comfortable treating these moves as tactical rather than structural,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP. “Until something fundamentally changes, traders are happy to fade both the rallies and the sell-offs.”

Tehran targeted the Kiku over the weekend. The very large crude carrier had loaded about 2 million barrels of oil in Qatar and last signaled its location off Fujairah, a United Arab Emirates port in the Gulf of Oman. 

Oil and natural gas shipments through the strait — which had picked up again following an interim agreement between the sides — eased following the latest flare-up. Shipowners will likely remain wary of crossing the chokepoint and hundreds of ships remain trapped in the Persian Gulf.

Over the weekend, a Saudi Aramco-operated helicopter crashed in Ras Tanura — Saudi Arabia’s energy heartland — near the Persian Gulf coast, the country’s press agency said, without elaborating on the cause. It wasn’t immediately clear if the incident on Sunday affected any energy facilities.

Elsewhere, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the country faces fuel supply problems including queues at gas stations. He confirmed that a full ban on diesel exports is among measures under discussion to mitigate supply tightness.

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The Arctic Express, which changed its flag to Russian in May, loaded fuel at the Saam floating storage unit, which holds gas from the Arctic LNG 2 project. Both Saam and Arctic LNG 2 have been sanctioned by the US.

The shipment suggests Russia is continuing to expand its fleet of vessels to circumvent Western restrictions. Including Arctic Express, at least 21 ships have been used to ferry LNG from sanctioned Russian projects, according to a Bloomberg analysis of tracking data. The biggest obstacle to increasing exports from Arctic LNG 2 remains the shortage of vessels capable of transporting the fuel to willing buyers.

The tanker, which was commissioned in 2007 and was formerly managed by a Greek company, changed ownership to St Petersburg-based Smp Techmanagement LLC around May 13, according to ship database Equasis. 

Smp Techmanagement owns three other LNG vessels that are part of Russia’s dark fleet. Bloomberg News couldn’t immediately find an email address or phone number for the company.

Russia added four other tankers —  that until recently serviced Oman’s export plant — to its shadow fleet earlier this year. Arctic LNG 2 exported over 400,000 tons of the fuel in May, a record high for the facility which began shipments in 2024, ship data shows.

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Demand over the past five years surpassed the government’s expectations, said Ren Yuzhi, director‑general of the planning department at the National Energy Administration. The growth of artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and other emerging sectors is compounding the problem for energy planners trying to map out the next five.

Deliberations extend to potentially rethinking China’s geography and where electricity is consumed, after decades of building up power networks to serve the massive cities in the east.

“Forecasting future energy demand — especially electricity — is a key challenge in the next planning cycle,” Ren said in an exclusive interview on Friday, after his agency released more details on the energy component of China’s new five-year plan that runs through 2030.

“AI computing centers and the development of electric vehicles are important factors,” he said. “EVs, in particular, have seen faster growth in recent years — especially this year — and charging demand has risen significantly.”

Understanding future energy demand is critical for the planners guiding trillions of dollars in investment in China’s more centrally planned economy. The task is made more complicated by the country’s transition to cleaner but less consistent renewable energy.

China now expects an average annual increase in power demand of around 600 billion kilowatt-hours in the next five years, according to the NEA, which would be more than Germany produces in a year. That compares to 570 billion kilowatt-hours over the past five years, said Ren.

Marked Shifts

The implications of getting it wrong can be seen in the marked shifts in China’s energy policy over the past five years. 

In 2021, planners estimated China would need about 4.6 billion tons of coal equivalent a year by 2025, a 14% increase from 2020 levels. Instead, demand grew so fast that total production ended up at 5.13 billion tons last year. 

A series of power shortages in 2021 and 2022 led to an about-face in the country’s policy around coal. Authorities pushed miners to boost output to record levels and began approving hundreds of new coal-fired power plants. 

China’s current plans call for peaking coal by 2030. To achieve that, clean energy will need to grow swiftly and be flexible enough to handle all additional demand. 

Traditional industries like steel continue to consume vast amounts of energy, while new sectors like AI and advanced manufacturing are becoming important new sources of demand. At the same time, China wants to shift energy use from fossil fuels to electricity, which will add further strains to the grid, Ren said. 

“We will not only need to meet traditional demand, but also the growing needs of people’s daily lives,” Ren said. “Increasingly, new areas are having a significant impact.”

Those new sources of demand are prompting policymakers to reconsider how energy and industrial capacity are geographically distributed, he said. Rather than continuing to transmit large volumes of electricity from western China to the eastern seaboard, authorities are weighing a shift toward relocating energy-intensive industries westward, closer to renewable resources.

“The western region has traditionally focused on exporting coal, electricity, and natural gas,” Ren said. “Going forward, it is more likely that the west will export finished products and computing power.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The helicopter went down at around 6 am local time, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The cause of the crash remains unknown. 

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy said investigations are underway to determine the circumstances that led to the crash. 

“The relevant authorities have launched a full investigation to determine the cause of the crash,” the ministry said in a statement. 

The ministry also extended condolences to the families of those who lost their lives.

Several Gulf countries expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia, conveying their sympathies with the families of the victims. 

The incident comes just two days after Aramco began loading crude oil from the export terminal in the Ras Tanura refinery on 26 June, which was shut for nearly four months. 

In March, Aramco had paused operations at the site as a precautionary measure after it was hit in a drone attack as part of the US-Iran conflict. 

Located on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, the Ras Tanura complex is home to one of the region’s largest refineries, with a processing capacity of around 550,000 bpd. 

The facility also serves as one of Saudi Arabia’s most important crude export terminals.

It is one of Aramco’s oldest and largest refining facilities and plays a key role in the country’s domestic refining operations and global crude exports.

SunZia, as it’s called, will be the country’s last landmark wind project for some time. After this year, annual onshore wind power additions are forecast to decline until 2030, according to BloombergNEF.The biggest reason is President Donald Trump’s assault on renewable energy, and wind in particular. He has vowed to block new wind development in his second term. But Trump isn’t the only culprit: inflation, supply challenges and local opposition have complicated development since the Biden administration. The wind industry also has to contend with the end of lucrative tax credits this year, tariffs and long waits to connect to power grids.

“The development pipeline faces a lot of uncertainties,” said Diego Espinosa, a wind analyst for research firm Wood Mackenzie.

The wind sector is also losing out to other renewable energy sources. Even in the Trump era, solar easily provides the most new annual capacity, while batteries are also besting wind capacity additions each year. Solar generation is cheaper and faster to install, a critical factor in an era of surging demand from power-hungry data centers.

“Solar costs have continued to come down more than previously expected, and wind costs have been rising the past couple of years,” said Harrison Sholler, an analyst for BloombergNEF.

Developers of wind have fewer places where it makes economic sense to install their sky-high turbines compared with solar. And large swaths of those locations have already been built out — such as in the Texas panhandle — further limiting opportunities, Sholler said.

The wind industry has known that solar enjoys some inherent advantages, but it didn’t expect the breadth of Trump’s anti-wind campaign. The industry prospered during Trump’s first term despite him hating turbines long before entering politics.

In Trump’s second term, his administration has taken a series of actions to stop wind development. On his first day in office, Trump issued an executive order calling for a moratorium on approvals of wind projects on federal lands and waters, a decree that was ruled illegal in December by a federal judge in Boston. The administration also issued stop-work orders for five offshore wind farms, which were lifted after developers challenged the decrees in federal courts. Several clean energy groups accuse the Pentagon of halting security reviews of proposed turbines, which are needed to complete projects. The groups sued earlier this month to lift the alleged suspension, which they say is impacting more than 100 projects worth nearly $50 billion in investments. The US Defense Department didn’t respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit and allegations that the agency is blocking approvals.

David Carroll, chief executive officer of renewable developer Engie North America, said the inability to get permitting approvals has placed the wind industry in a precarious position.

“You’ve got capital investments that are just frozen,” said Carroll, who is also chair of the trade group American Clean Power Association. “You have boards of companies questioning whether they should continue to develop wind here in the US.” 

Engie is still going to try to complete the more than a dozen wind projects that have been stalled by the permitting freeze, Carroll said. 

“But we are not placing a lot of investment in the development of new wind at this moment, because the risk profile is too great,” he said. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Houston-based shale producer is poised to win the auction for the driller backed by private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Kayne Anderson, the people said. A deal could be announced in weeks, said the people, asking not to be identified because the details aren’t public. 

Deliberations are still fluid and a different bidder could still emerge, the people said. The company’s owners could also decide to retain the asset, they added.

Magnolia fell 1.5% to $26.78 at in New York trading Friday, giving the company a market value of about $5.1 billion. 

Representatives for Magnolia didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. Representatives for Warburg Pincus and Kayne Anderson declined to comment. 

A deal for WildFire would boost Magnolia’s presence in the Eagle Ford Shale basin of south Texas. 

Private equity firms are shopping several closely held oil and gas companies worth tens of billions of dollars after the Iran war pushed crude prices higher. Publicly traded companies in the US shale patch have embarked on consolidation over the past few years to gain scale and lower costs as some of the top well sites get drilled up.

WildFire operates more than 2,000 wells with the equivalent output of more than 50,000 net barrels of oil per day, according to its website. The company is run by a management team that previously operated WildHorse Resource Development Corp. before selling to shale-gas pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corp. in 2019 for $1.9 billion. 

(Updates trading and comment line.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Jon Jaye is heading to Expand, the largest US gas producer, after nearly 16 years with Exxon, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing career moves. Jaye will join Dan Turco, Expand’s executive vice president for marketing and commercial, who joined from Exxon last year. 

Several other US natural gas traders are also leaving Exxon, the people said. Among them are Jonathan Sadik, Exxon’s head of natural gas financial trading, who is also poised to join Expand. Chris Giddings and Clay Patterson are joining ConocoPhillips. And Collin Link recently moved to Freepoint Commodities LLC, a merchant trading company. 

Exxon declined to comment on the specific departures but said in a statement that “attrition is consistent with historical norms, and we continue to successfully recruit key talent across our trading hubs in support of ambitious growth plans.”  

A Freepoint Commodities spokesperson confirmed Link had joined the company. Expand and ConocoPhillips declined to comment. None of the traders responded to requests for comment.

Exxon has built up its trading division in recent years as it seeks to capture more profit from the company’s vast network of pipelines, refineries and chemical plants. The company revised its compensation policy about two years ago to allow some traders to be paid cash bonuses in addition to stock awards.

But it has a more conservative approach to trading than some rivals, making it challenging to retain top performers in an industry known for risk taking, large bonuses and high employee turnover. The company faces competition for traders from companies like Expand, which also wants to exploit arbitrage opportunities around their physical assets, as well as from merchant traders and hedge funds. 

Expand, formed by the merger of Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Southwestern Energy Co. in 2024, has increased its marketing staff 50% to about 60 in past year to sell more of its gas directly to end-users, who previously bought through trading houses and other marketing companies. Its headquarters is in Southwestern’s former main office, about a mile away from Exxon’s campus near Houston. 

Jaye was based in Houston as Exxon’s head of natural gas and power trading for two years, according to his LinkedIn profile. He took over the position from Jason Coy, who left to join the quantitative hedge fund Squarepoint Capital LLP in 2024.

Leading oil trading firms Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group all made higher-than-usual profits this year as the US-Iran war disrupted energy supplies and oil and gas markets globally. However, it’s still too early to say if 2026 will rival the industry’s record haul after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. 

Exxon’s first-quarter earnings took a hit of about $3.7 billion due to derivative positions linked to physical deliveries of cargoes. Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen told investors in April that these were paper losses only and would fully unwind over time, resulting in “material” profits. 

Separately, Tracey Gunnlaugsson, President of Exxon’s trading business, is retiring and will be replaced by Alex Volkov, according to people familiar with the matter. Volkov previously oversaw the integration of Pioneer Natural Resources Co., which Exxon bought for about $60 billion two years ago. 

Gunnlaugsson’s retirement and Volkov’s appointment were reported earlier by Reuters.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Financial terms of the transaction weren’t disclosed in EDF’s Friday statement. KKR declined to comment, including on the deal valuation. 

The KKR deal comes after LS Power LLC had been in advanced talks to buy EDF’s North American renewable power business, Bloomberg News reported earlier this month. At the time, LS Power was discussing paying more than €4 billion ($4.6 billion) for the unit, Bloomberg News reported.

KKR has spent years building out its power portfolio, focusing on renewables and gas assets, as demand for electricity grows rapidly. The investment giant agreed in September to pay $10 billion for a 45% equity stake in Sempra’s infrastructure arm, which builds liquefied natural gas projects. Days later, TotalEnergies SE agreed to sell a stake in North American solar assets to KKR in a deal valuing the portfolio at $1.25 billion including debt. 

The KKR moves have mirrored a larger pick up for takeovers in the  US power industry as energy producers and utilities race to meet insatiable demand from massive data-center projects. In May, NextEra Energy Inc. agreed in May to pay about $67 billion in stock for Dominion Energy Inc. in the largest power acquisition ever.

French state-owned utility EDF operates a portfolio of 5.6 gigawatts of renewable assets in the US and Canada, according to the statement. That’s enough to power more than 4 million US homes. 

EDF is raising funds to help finance the construction of nuclear reactors in France and the UK to replace part of its aging atomic fleet. That investment, costing tens of billions of euros over the next two decades, coincides with falling French power prices, putting the utility’s balance sheet under pressure.

(Adds KKR declined to comment in second paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The so-called Mission 300 program is the biggest attempt yet to boost energy access on a continent that’s home to about 80% of the 570 million people globally who have no access to power. 

The program is expected to see tens of billions of dollars invested to reach a target of 300 million connections by 2030 as the development institutions push governments to enact power-industry reforms to woo private investors in exchange for funding. 

“The momentum that we’ve been working on is starting to pay off,” Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s managing director of operations, said in an interview. “Governments have to double down on reforms because nothing flows in an area where there’s uncertainty. There’s no investment flowing to uncertainty.”

To date the program, created in 2024, has brought power to more than 50 million people. So far 36 countries have produced compacts, detailed plans on how to boost power access, under the program and that number is expected to rise to more than 40 in 2026, according to Bjerde.

This year the African Development Bank plans to approve projects itself to bring power connections to as many as 15 million people, said Kevin Kariuki, the lender’s vice president for power, energy, climate and green growth. Those projects include a program of about $59 million to roll out mini-grids in Eritrea, one of the world’s most isolated nations. 

“Some bragging rights are in order. We are currently the most active multilateral development bank in Eritrea,” Kariuki said in an interview. “It’s in countries where there is almost nothing that transformation can be most visible.”

The African Development Bank has three projects in Eritrea including one that will bring power to more than 300,000 people.

Eritrea, which has been led by Isaias Afwerki since 1993, has fought wars against its neighbors and has been in default to the World Bank since 2012.

Other programs set up under the Mission 300 umbrella are also expected to get underway this year.

Zafiri, a $176 million platform set up to buy equity stakes in companies that provide off-grid power to help them expand, expects to make its first investments this year, according to Andrew Herskowitz of the Rockefeller Foundation, which helped set it up.

Nations in east and southern Africa are also being pushed to develop cross-border trading in power through interconnected grids. 

“We’re really back into power pools,” Bjerde said. “If Africa can get these pools to work, you can lower costs across borders and take advantage of countries with surpluses.”

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(Adds extent of African Development Bank’s activity in Eritrea in eighth paragraph)

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Brent crude slipped below $74 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was near $70 on Friday. Both benchmarks climbed more than 2% in the previous session — the first increase this week — after the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing southeast of Oman.

Ships had been openly transiting the waterway following early progress toward a lasting agreement to end the US-Iran war, adding millions of barrels to the global market. Further talks between Washington and Tehran are likely to be protracted on issues including nuclear policy, but oil futures have rapidly declined recently and are on track for a third weekly loss.

A White House official said it was too soon to say who carried out the strike on the vessel. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there were no deaths or environmental damage, and that it was able to continue sailing.

The attack has rattled the fragile confidence of shipowners and crews, though ships continued to transit through the narrow corridor on Friday. A handful of tankers turned around early on Thursday after reportedly getting warnings from the Iranian Navy, while the International Maritime Organization said it was pausing its evacuation operations in the strait.

Two key exit routes through Hormuz have emerged because the normal one through the middle is thought to have been mined. One is near Iran, while the other hugs Oman’s coastline and is protected by the US. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said Thursday that any transit happening in routes outside its framework would not be protected by “safe-passage guarantees.”

Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the strait was open. He made the remarks at the White House while saying Iran would buy US farm goods with money from unfrozen assets, a claim disputed by Tehran.

The attack caused a “short-covering move,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “If you add in a market that has been extremely oversold, prices are more likely to move into a ‘back and fill’ correction before any new selling emerges.”

Earlier this week, Gulf oil was streaming out of the waterway at the fastest pace since the war began. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it sees Gulf exports now running at almost two-thirds of normal levels, while the pace of visible global inventory declines has slowed.

Gulf producers have been rapidly raising output, but are finding it difficult to secure tankers to ferry the oil out. Iraq has been forced to order a production halt at one of its key fields due to the shortage. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar are all boosting supply.

Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup oil sales lost during the war, even raising the prospect on it could consider leaving the group. The country’s oil ministry later said an exit hasn’t been proposed, and consideration of a move isn’t the government’s official position.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

At least eight empty vessels have congregated off the Ras Laffan facility after most transited through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Another tanker in the Gulf is on its way to the plant, while two other Qatar-linked ships are approaching the eastern entrance of Hormuz, the data shows.

QatarEnergy operates Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, but output has been largely halted since Iranian attacks damaged two production trains and the war led to a near-closure of Hormuz. Higher exports depend on safe passage through the strait, with an attack on a cargo ship renewing concerns and leading to one LNG tanker U-turning before entering.

QatarEnergy — which exported nearly a fifth of global LNG supply last year — has been testing equipment and performing necessary maintenance to prepare for a rapid output increase. Several production trains have been operating at reduced capacity so that the plant can deliver shipments to neighbors, but also be able to raise supply when necessary, Bloomberg previously reported.

Qatar plans to return to normal LNG output within weeks from the undamaged parts of its facility, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said in an interview with the Financial Times this week. The 10-day moving average of exports from Ras Laffan have more than doubled in the past month, but they are still about 80% below year-ago levels, ship-data shows.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

This, coupled with the US Treasury's decision on 22 June to defer Iranian oil sanctions until August 21, has also paved the way for a rapid ramp up of production. 

Thus, as producers across the Gulf restored output faster than expected, Brent crude fell to around $73 per barrel, while WTI teetered close to $70.

According to Rystad Energy, shut-in crude production in the region reached 9.6 million bpd, down from 11.7 million bpd, and the consultancy now expects output to return to prewar levels by the end of 2026, instead of Q1 2027. 

“Two million barrels a day came back online in three weeks, and the recovery is spread across the region,” said Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy.

Rystad also expects total regional outages to fall below 2 mbpd by the end of Q3 2026, as producers continue bringing fields back online ahead of earlier expectations.

The International Energy Agency also reported that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose in early June, thanks to “ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, lifting total flows from a May low of 9.6 mb/d to around 12 mb/d.”

The June 2026 Oil Market Report by the IEA also noted multiple ways in which markets responded to the crisis, helping keep oil prices below $150 per barrel:

• Global markets drew down inventories, while the IEA released its largest-ever emergency stock, bringing additional barrels to market. 
• Refineries across countries quickly made adjustments to make up for the decline in the region's refined product exports as well as the losses of Middle Eastern crude oil.
• China, the world's largest crude oil importer, cut its imports by 40% between February and May, helping ease supply pressures in the global market
• Crude exports from other suppliers, particularly the US, increased, while Gulf producers found alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

UAE and Saudi Arabia take the lead

Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at Ras Tanura on 26 June after a nearly four-month suspension, signalling another important step towards restoring Gulf exports.

Two Very Large Crude Carriers operated by Bahri were seen loading crude at the world’s largest oil export terminal, while another vessel waited offshore.

Saudi Arabia strengthened its position through extensive use of its East-West pipeline during the conflict, which links eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. 

The UAE too depended heavily on the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline during the crisis, and is poised to double its capacity by next year.

Saudi Arabia along with the UAE emerged as the most resilient producers throughout the conflict, as they were able to maintain exports using infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. ​

Together, they account for around 65% of the crude still being produced across the region during the disruption. 

“Saudi Arabia is on track for a record 4.5 million bpd through Yanbu this month. The supply picture is clearly improving,” said Saraswat.

The IEA noted that a “full recovery [of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz] will not be immediate, however, as mines will have to be removed from the main shipping lanes and supply chains will take time to normalise.”

In spite of this, companies such as ADNOC, Iraq's SOMO, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and QatarEnergy have all launched tenders for July cargoes. 

The Iran outlook 

​Iran, meanwhile, is recording the sharpest rebound. “Iran is moving fastest because its shut-in was shorter and upstream damage was limited,” explained Saraswat.

Due to easing sanctions, the naval blockade lifted, and shipping activity gradually resuming, Rystad estimates Iranian production could rise from approximately 2.4 million bpd today to 3.1 million bpd by August. 

If sanctions relief extend beyond August, production could climb to 3.3 million bpd by the end of the year, exceeding pre-conflict output.

Strait of Hormuz: the biggest uncertainty 

Despite the improving situation, concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain.

According to Saraswat, storage facilities across the Gulf are currently estimated to be only 50% to 60% full after producers relied heavily on inventories to maintain exports during the disruption. 

Unless tanker traffic returns to normal levels soon, producers may once again have to curb output as storage capacity fills, according to Rystad.

Although crude loadings and shipping activity have resumed, security concerns persist after a commercial vessel was struck by an unidentified object in the Strait of Hormuz this week, briefly reigniting fears over the durability of the ceasefire.

“The variable that will determine how quickly prices settle at a new level is Hormuz transit volumes,” Saraswat said, adding that “The diplomatic agreement is a necessary first step, and physical tanker flows through Hormuz are what we are watching now.”

A shipment of the nation’s Al-Shaheen grade was sold this week to Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp., which sought supplies for August to September, according to traders familiar with the matter. The volumes were sold by trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., they said.

Some of the same grade, as well as Qatar’s Marine and Land varieties, were sold to an Indian refiner last week, said the traders, who asked not to be named as they may not speak publicly.

The deals represent the first observed transactions for Qatari crude to refiners in Asia since the war began, although the country has been much more active in reviving production and exports of liquefied natural gas.

In addition, state-owned QatarEnergy on Thursday issued its first crude oil sell tender since the Iran war began. It’s offering cargoes over July and August, which can either be picked up within the Persian Gulf or via ship-to-ship transfer at locations just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures have cratered this month, although prices ticked higher on Thursday after an attack on a cargo ship in Hormuz, renewing concerns about safe passage through the waterway. Increased activity through the strait had seen crude exports from the United Arab Emirates rebound, as well as sales from Iraq and Kuwait.

Qatar has been able to get LNG tankers into and out of the Persian Gulf through the strait. It plans to rapidly boost production of the super-chilled fuel once the waterway fully reopens, restoring most export capacity in two months, said other people familiar with the matter.

There’s been increased tanker activity near Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility. The Kiku, a Greek-owned supertanker, was loading 2 million barrels of Qatari crude from the Al-Shaheen floating storage and offloading terminal, ship-tracking data show. 

Kiku appeared in the Persian Gulf on June 19, after last broadcasting from the Gulf of Oman on June 13, making the very large crude carrier one of the first mainstream tankers to enter the gulf since the US-Iran deal.

Separately, state-owned QatarEnergy had also offered a cargo of gasoline for export next month, from its Mesaieed refinery in the Persian Gulf, in a sign that wider processing operations are ramping up.

QatarEnergy — which is responsible for the country’s energy supply, including oil, products and LNG — didn’t respond to a request for comment. In addition, Apex Shipping & Energy Ltd. in Greece, listed as manager of Kiku on the Equasis database, didn’t respond to emails seeking comment.

(Updates with Qatari sell tender in fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

There can be “no question” that the current tensions in the Middle East have accelerated demand for renewable energy, Kerry, who is co-executive chair of investment manager Galvanize, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Guy Johnson. 

“I think if you talk to knowledgeable folks in the business world, while they don’t make a lot of noise about it right now, they are moving forward,” he said.

The comments come as oil has erased its wartime gains after flows through the Strait of Hormuz ramped up following progress on a US-Iran peace deal.

Kerry pointed to investments in Texas and the United Arab Emirates as examples showing how even governments not necessarily ideologically aligned with the green shift are moving toward the economic logic of renewables.

The “UAE, for instance — an oil and gas producing country — they are building out 19 gigawatts of battery storage and have put four new nuclear plants online, and they have one of the largest solar fields in the world,” Kerry said. Texas “is now massively building out onshore solar and wind.”

Kerry is in the British capital for London Climate Action Week, where politicians, academics and business leaders have gathered to discuss how to address rising temperatures as Europe deals with a heat wave that’s shattered records across the continent.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Every half-decade, Chinese leaders publish a five-year plan outlining economic and societal goals, and then follow it up with several sectoral schemes with more detailed targets and strategies. This year, the broader plan came out in March, and sectoral plans have begun trickling out in recent weeks, including ones on jobs and urban renewal. 

The plan’s release comes at a seeming inflection point for China’s energy transition. Years of rapid build-outs of solar and wind farms have showed that the country has the means to expand clean energy fast enough to power its growing economy, while chipping away at its world-leading emissions. But that’s also put unprecedented strain on the electricity grid, leading to rising curtailment and a slowdown in new renewable installations.

Energy was already a major component of the broader five-year plan. It called for China to peak its coal and oil during the 2026-30 period, double non-fossil fuel energy over the next decade, and focus on developing technologies like hydrogen and nuclear fusion. It also sought to make progress on a major gas pipeline from Russia, and boost capacity of generating technologies like nuclear, offshore wind and pumped hydro storage.

Key targets from the new energy plan include:

Some other details from the plan:

• Wind and solar will account for more than 50% of total installed power capacity.
• It targets 160 gigawatts of pumped hydro and 300 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, along with 50 gigawatts of virtual power plants for demand response.
• It targets 2 million tons of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030, nearly double what’s currently online and under construction.
• Oil output will be maintained at around 200 million tons a year, while natural gas production will steadily increase.
• The country will rationally plan and construct natural gas power plants and promote domestic construction of gas turbines.
• Develop more than 100 million tons a year of coal production capacity that is ready to produce when needed.
• Develop future technologies, such as nuclear fusion, space-based power plants and superconducting transmission.

(Updates with additional details from plan)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The UK group has “the technology that fits our specifications” and “fits the high-level criteria,” Studsvik CEO Karl Thedeen said in an interview at the Swedish political week Almedalen. He also stressed that no decision has been made and that the process is ongoing.

Earlier this month, Sweden’s Videberg Kraft AB picked Rolls-Royce to supply it with several new small nuclear reactors to help meet surging power demand in the decades ahead.

Rolls-Royce is emerging as one of Europe’s leading contenders in the race to commercialize so-called small modular reactors. The company has signed contracts with Great British Energy–Nuclear to develop the UK’s first SMRs and is advancing plans with utility CEZ to deploy its technology in the Czech Republic. Another Swedish partnership would further strengthen its position as governments across the continent turn to nuclear power to bolster energy security and meet climate goals.

Studsvik’s project involves developing new nuclear generating capacity of as much as 1,400 megawatts. A special purpose vehicle, or SPV, will be established to develop it. Studsvik recently submitted an application to the government for state support. 

“If you compare to Videberg Kraft that selected Rolls-Royce, they were a customer and they wanted a vendor. We are a partner looking for other partners,” Thedeen said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Umm Al Ashtan, a tanker owned by Adnoc Logistics & Services, appeared inside the gulf next to Adnoc’s Das Island LNG export plant on Wednesday after not sending a signal for nearly two weeks, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That suggests that the vessel traversed the Strait of Hormuz recently with its transponder turned off.

More vessels have been turning on their transponders as they sail in and out of the Gulf in recent days, reflecting the improving security situation around Hormuz. While some ships have begun broadcasting their entire journeys in and out of the gulf, others, like Umm Al Ashtan and Adnoc’s Abu Dhabi II and Al Bateen, are still choosing to push through Hormuz in the dark.

Signaling from within the Gulf, though, is a shift from recent months when Adnoc’s vessels have avoided doing so due to safety concerns.

Adnoc didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

For about two months, Adnoc’s ships have halted at the eastern end of the Strait of Hormuz, switched of their transponders to traverse into the gulf, then restarted sending signals once out again with a cargo. At least six Adnoc LNG shipments were exported using this strategy since late-April, according to satellite and ship data.

More LNG vessels have been able to move openly through the waterway after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal, with at least six empty tankers traversing the strait to come into the Gulf since Monday, as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates expand exports of the super-chilled fuel. Most of these ships were sending a signal while going through the waterway.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Some 239 gigawatts of proposed solar, wind and hydropower capacity across 10 Indian states — about 90% of the total — face high or critical vulnerabilities to compounding weather events like tornadoes, wildfires and extreme floods, Zurich Insurance Group AG said in an assessment published Thursday. 

“It hits the balance sheet,” Mark Fletcher, head of Zurich Resilience Solutions for Asia Pacific, said in an interview. “If your solar panel is less efficient, you’re generating less revenue. If your wind farm is blown down and you have four or five turbines damaged, you have a business interruption on the revenue side, but you also have a direct cost to fix that.”

The findings underscore the scale of the challenge for India — the world’s third-largest carbon dioxide emitter — to transition its vast energy system, even as it makes rapid progress toward a target to raise the share of electricity generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources to 60% by 2035. Adding ever greater volumes of solar panels or wind turbines won’t be sufficient if the physical hardware cannot survive extreme weather conditions.

Project developers are increasingly finding that an ability to prove they are responding to climate risks is a “condition of capital” to secure financing, Fletcher said.

“Capital is not infinite,” said Ajay Hegde, head of commercial insurance at Zurich Kotak General Insurance, a local unit of Zurich Insurance. “It will then definitely flow towards the ones which show a lot more resilience, versus those which don’t show the resilience.”

Vulnerabilities are most pronounced for solar projects, which accounted for nearly 70% of the 871 planned assets assessed in the report. And while developers routinely model the potential impacts of extreme wind, there’s less attention paid to the risks from hail, which poses a particular threat in prime solar corridors in Rajasthan and Gujarat. 

Hail strikes don’t only threaten shattered panels, they can also induce microscopic fractures that silently degrade a solar plant’s output over time, eating into a project’s revenue. Meanwhile, in drier regions, prolonged droughts compound problems by caking dust onto modules, forcing operators to choose between diminished generation and costly, water-intensive cleaning cycles, Zurich said.

Projected losses as a result of climate damage could be roughly halved to $27 billion with early investment on resilience measures of about $4.6 billion, according to the report.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The assesment comes as a part of the forum's Energy Transition Index 2026, which measures how well national energy systems function in three key areas: security, sustainability, and equity. It also assesses how prepared governments are to facilitate the shift towards clean energy.  The report, published in collaboration with Accenture, found that momentum across regions slowed due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, even though global investments in clean energy crossed $2.3 trillion last year.  

“Despite growing headwinds, 60% of countries improved their overall scores, although balanced progress is becoming more concentrated, with only one in four countries improving across all three dimensions,” the report said. 

A 'fracturing' of the energy transition 

The report added that the Hormuz interruption has exacerbated the issues already plaguing energy systems, showing that they are still vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, with import-dependent emerging economies being most impacted. 

Countries are under rising and uneven strain due to supply risks and structural limitations, which has consequences for long-term sustainability, affordability, and resilience.

“The energy transition is not reversing, but it is fracturing,” said Roberto Bocca, Head of the Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “In a more volatile geoeconomic environment, security, affordability, and resilience are central to sustaining progress. Closing the gap between ambition and delivery will require stronger foundations, including more diversified and resilient energy systems, faster infrastructure build-out, and capital that can reach markets where it is needed most.”

Nordic countries take the lead

According to the ETI, Sweden took the top spot, followed by Finland, Denmark, Estonia, and Norway, respectively.

Other advanced economies like Singapore also performed well, moving up ten spots on better policy signals, while the US saw a little decline despite stronger performance in security. Germany maintained its position with consistent gains, while Japan saw a slight improvement.

The Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan region saw a decline of 0.9% overall, indicating weakening performance and readiness. Despite this, Saudi Arabia improved its ranking through investments in large-scale battery storage, rapid deployment of renewable energy sources, and increased financial support. 

Published ahead of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China, the ETI report also highlights China’s fast deployment of clean energy systems. With $627 billion invested in clean energy in 2025 and ongoing large-scale renewable capacity expansion, China continues to be Asia's top performer.

This remained the case even though the difficult regulatory and investment climate somewhat offset improvements in infrastructure, energy intensity, and affordability. 

Although ranked 70^th on the ETI, India achieved one of the biggest increases in readiness, which was fuelled by advancements in human capital and infrastructure, making it a crucial participant in the upcoming stage of the transition.

AI and the growing electricity demand

Electrification, cooling, digital infrastructure, and AI all contributed to a 3% increase in the world's electricity demand, which is becoming a key barrier to the transition. Although they contribute over 80% of demand growth, emerging nations still have infrastructure deficiencies and greater financing costs.

In the meantime, clean-energy funding is still quite concentrated, with around 75% going to a small number of economies, despite record overall investment. This widens the gap between where capital is deployed and where demand is growing.

However, to navigate this challenge, AI may come to the rescue. 

“The energy transition is entering a more disruptive and challenging phase, making enterprise resilience an increasingly important priority for business leaders,” said Muqsit Ashraf, Global Lead for Industry and Enterprise at Accenture. “Organisations that use technology and AI to improve adaptability, strengthen decision-making, and respond more effectively to change will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and sustain long-term growth.”

Tackling geopolitical uncertainties 

While the Energy Transition Index (ETI) 2026 shows improvements in energy system performance, it appears increasingly challenging to sustain progress. 

Energy systems must now balance decarbonisation, security, and affordability in an increasingly uncertain environment. According to the World Economic Forum, three key measures must be taken for this to happen: 

• Governments should “Diversify across fuels, import partners, supply chains, and critical minerals” to reduce vulnerabilities. Energy systems should be stress-tested against multiple disruptions, including supply shocks and extreme weather events. Investments in grid modernisation and storage can strengthen resilience, while portfolios combining renewables will help maintain reliability. 
• Greater emphasis must be placed on grids, flexibility, and delivery capability. “Digitise application processes, coordinate environmental review, and pre-designate infrastructure corridors to compress timelines,” the report added. 
• The most important yet challenging aspect for governments will be growing investments and policy stability. Accordingly, they must establish predictable regulatory frameworks, long-term procurement schedules, and transparent market rules.

In a press statement, the forum said that tackling these measures will help in “restoring investability through stable policy frameworks and targeted capital flows, particularly toward the emerging economies that will drive the majority of future demand growth.”

Data centers will account for almost 10% of the National Electricity Market’s underlying demand by 2050 — four times their current share, the Australian Energy Market Operator said in its biennial Integrated System Plan. The report confirmed that the lowest-cost pathway is a system built around renewable energy, connected through transmission and distribution networks and firmed with storage and natural gas.

“Our plan is to deliver more cheaper, cleaner energy, using our sovereign sun and wind energy to shield our grid from global volatility,” said Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen.

Australia’s slowing economy has been propped up by a massive surge in investment into data centers. That comes as the nation’s world-beating uptake of solar and rapidly aging coal generation helped to cause increased volatility and made the country a test case for the global energy transition. 

Households are set to continue to contribute to the massive shift in generation through further uptake of solar panels and batteries. That will see their grid-supplied energy needs fall 44% to 20 terawatt-hours by 2025, despite increased uptake of electrical vehicles and appliances, according to the report.

“Households are already part of the solution,” said Jackie Trad, chief executive officer of the Clean Energy Council. “Rooftop solar is set to quadruple by 2050 and home batteries are taking off,” 

More than a third of suitable dwellings in the National Electricity Market — which supplies about 85% of the nation’s population — have rooftop solar, which is set to rise to 56% by 2050. Meanwhile, small-scale battery capacity is set to jump to 35 gigawatts by 2050, from 5 gigawatts in April. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

“We are positioning ourselves early to serve the growing national demand for clean, round-the-clock power,” said Adani in a video address to shareholders on Wednesday in conjunction with the annual general meeting of his conglomerate’s flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd. 

The tycoon said the group will enter the nuclear energy space through a business called Adani Atomic Energy, has identified land for the project and is targeting a 10 GW capacity by 2035. That would be enough power for millions of households. 

Last year, Bloomberg reported that Adani Group is in talks with a northern Indian state to build a commercial nuclear energy project, giving Asia’s richest person a headstart in a sector that India is opening up to private firms.

Adani, who is also celebrating his 64th birthday on Wednesday, said Adani Power Ltd. is implementing India’s largest ever private sector investment of over 2 trillion rupees ($21.1 billion), with a target of 45 GW capacity over the next five years.

The billionaire did not mention his past US legal troubles or their recent resolution, but said his conglomerate is defined by “not the noise that surround us, but the strength of our response.”

His roadmap for the ports-to-energy group points to a renewed focus on expansion and growth as he moves past the phase of intense scrutiny due to the US probes, which previously impeded the ability of the group’s companies to raise money abroad.

US Indictment

American prosecutors had unveiled an indictment against Adani back in November 2024. Last month, the US Justice Department moved to drop criminal charges against Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani in connection with an alleged bribery scheme in India. That happened shortly after the two men agreed to pay a total of $18 million to settle a parallel Securities and Exchange Commission civil fraud case. 

Adani Enterprises separately reached a deal to resolve a Office of Foreign Assets Control’s sanctions probe for $275 million. The Adanis and the company did not admit any wrongdoing. 

In his speech Wednesday, the tycoon said the Adani Group made a record investment of over 1.5 trillion rupees in infrastructure in the year ended March 31, or more than 30% of India’s total new private-sector capital expenditure for the period.

Adani said his group is also building a national aerospace platform that spans manufacturing, MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) services and pilot training.

Adani Enterprises’ shares have climbed about 35% this year, giving the flagship company a market valuation of almost 3.9 trillion rupees. 

The total market value of the group’s nine-listed companies has returned to levels last seen in January 2023, before US short-seller Hindenburg Research released a scathing report that accusing the conglomerate of widespread corporate misconduct. Adani has denied those fraud allegations. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent slid toward $76 a barrel after falling 1.1% in the previous session, and West Texas Intermediate was below $73. Vessels are transiting the waterway with their satellite signals switched on, indicating growing confidence among shipowners. The International Maritime Organization also said it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Gulf.

Washington and Tehran have both flagged early progress in talks to end the war that began in late February, although negotiations are likely to be protracted and claims from the two sides have diverged. Iran and Oman said they are beginning work on a pact for the administration of Hormuz, including transit costs, with lingering concerns the Islamic Republic could levy fees.

“I think the market has been waiting for the last of the hopeful bulls to give in and we’re finding a bottom close to $75,” said Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus. “There’s a lot of questions ahead: replacing supply, wait time for loadings, China back on the buy side.”

The Republican-led Senate voted Tuesday to end the US war with Iran in a rare symbolic rebuke of President Donald Trump. While the resolution is unlikely to force any changes in the administration’s strategy, it represents the latest sign that the president lacks domestic support for the effort.

Separately, Trump said in a social media post he had ordered the Department of Justice to look into why gasoline prices haven’t fallen faster as oil drops. The national average retail price has declined 14% since late May and is now below $4 a gallon, although it remains above the five-year seasonal average, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

Oil futures have retreated by more than a third from their wartime highs, driven in part by expectations of an impending increase in crude supply. The US has temporarily allowed purchases of Iranian oil as part of the diplomatic process, aiding efforts by sellers to court Asia’s largest refiners.

In a sign of fast-weakening market conditions, the spread between Brent’s two nearest contracts narrowed to 22 cents a barrel in backwardation on Wednesday. The gap was close $10 in early April.

Gulf producers, including the United Arab Emirates, are moving to quickly restore exports. The UAE has recovered to almost 85% of pre-war output levels, according to the International Energy Agency, highlighting the region’s ability to ramp supply back up. Kuwait has rolled back its force majeure declarations, while Iraq is also boosting production.

Still, there are signs of tightness in some markets, including the US. The American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventories at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by another 1 million barrels last week, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. If confirmed by official data later Wednesday, that would mean stockpiles have dropped below the 20-million-barrel mark that’s widely seen as the minimum operating level.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The telecoms unit of SoftBank is seeking a stake in Tokyo Electric Power Co., Masayoshi Son told shareholders on Wednesday. Having Tepco — as the utility is known — within SoftBank’s sphere of influence would help the firm push into AI data centers, which require large amounts of power, he said.

Tokyo-based SoftBank is one of the world’s foremost supporters of AI, and has been exploring ways to secure energy for its ambitions in Japan. The group’s telecoms unit plans to transform a factory in Osaka into one of the country’s biggest production lines for large-scale batteries.

Tepco is on the hunt for a capital tie-up to help turn its business around and underpin the ballooning costs of cleaning up the wrecked Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant. The company earlier this year sought proposals from potential partners.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Global gas flaring increased for the third consecutive year in 2025, reaching 167 billion cubic metres (bcm), according to the latest Global Gas Flaring Tracker released by the World Bank Group.

The figure represents a six-year high and equates to approximately $54 billion worth of wasted gas that could otherwise have been used to generate electricity, support industry, and strengthen energy security.  

The scale of the waste is significant. The amount of gas flared last year was nearly equivalent to Africa’s annual gas consumption and exceeded the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that transited the Arabian Gulf during the same period.

The highest flaring countries 

In several oil-producing nations, large volumes of associated gas continue to be burned off at production sites rather than captured and brought to market.

According to the report, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Mexico, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, and the US in that order account for 80% of global gas flaring despite representing less than half of the world’s oil production. These countries have dominated gas flaring for the past 15 years.

The World Bank argues that reducing routine flaring presents an opportunity to address both energy security and emissions challenges. It estimates that eliminating routine flaring worldwide would require investments of between $70-$100 billion, which is less than twice the annual value of the gas currently being wasted.

For many developing economies, this represents a contradiction. Several countries continue to import expensive natural gas while simultaneously flaring substantial quantities of domestic gas resources at oilfields.

Capturing and utilising this gas could help expand power generation capacity, lower energy costs, and create new revenue streams.

The World Bank argues that reducing routine flaring presents an opportunity to address both energy security and emissions challenges. It estimates that eliminating routine flaring worldwide would require investments of between $70-$100 billion, which is less than twice the annual value of the gas currently being wasted.

“At a time when many countries are struggling to increase affordable and reliable energy, the economic development costs of continued flaring are simply too high,” said Demetrios Papathanasiou, Global Director for Energy at the World Bank Group.

Despite decades of technological progress, industry experts argue that the barriers to reducing flaring are no longer technical. Gas capture technologies, processing systems, and financing mechanisms are widely available. Instead, progress is often hindered by regulatory shortcomings, inadequate infrastructure, financing constraints, and a lack of political and corporate prioritisation.

According to Zubin Bamji, World Bank Manager for the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) Partnership, the challenge now is one of leadership and execution rather than innovation.

“The technologies, policies, regulations and financing mechanisms needed to capture and utilise associated gas are available,” Bamji said. “What is missing, in too many places, is the leadership, prioritisation and governance needed to put these solutions into practice.”

But the industry is keen on reducing flaring, as can be seen from steps taken by several countries. 

“The technologies, policies, regulations, and financing mechanisms needed to capture and utilise associated gas are available. What is missing, in too many places, is the leadership, prioritisation, and governance needed to put these solutions into practice, creating access to markets and infrastructure.”

- Zubin Bamji, World Bank Manager for the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) Partnership

The World Bank noted the US was the only country that saw its flaring volumes decrease in 2025, even though oil production increased by 3% last year. Flaring quantities and intensity decreased by 13% and 15%, respectively in the Permian Basin, which was the main cause of this fall.

The Matterhorn Express pipeline, which went into service at the end of 2024 and offered a practical export route for associated gas from the Permian, was a major factor in the decrease in flaring in the region.

Where governments and operators have implemented strong policies and invested in supporting infrastructure, results have followed. Kazakhstan, for example, has reduced gas flaring by 87% since 2012, including a further 16% decline in 2025 alone, demonstrating the impact of sustained regulatory action and industry commitment.

The situation in Argentina has been somewhat alleviated by new pipelines and gas processing developments, and flaring intensity has steadily decreased, with a notable decrease in both flaring quantities and intensity in 2025.

In the same year, India passed new regulations requiring more stringent oversight and limiting flaring to 0.5% of field output. Producers have been able to stabilise operations in Syria thanks to peace following the end of political conflict. 

Saudi Arabia, Mozambique, Ghana, and Uzbekistan also saw small reductions in flare volumes.

The methane factor 

Flaring releases harmful gases, most importantly, methane. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), 125 million tonnes (Mt) of methane were released into the atmosphere in 2024. 

Moreover, World Bank data found that flaring in 2025 generated 429 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO₂e) in total emissions, of which 50 MMtCO₂e came from unburned methane due to incomplete combustion.

While this is alarming, there is good news. Methane emissions are projected to fall in the lead up to 2050 in all models shown by the IEA. With no methane abatement policies, the figure could drop to 98 Mt by 2050. This is of course, if methane emissions remain constant, with changes in emissions tied to changes in fossil fuel demand.

However, if the IEA’s ‘Stated Policies’ are followed, this number could fall to 71 Mt. The Stated Policies Scenario is a model based on what governments are currently doing to reduce emissions. This includes actual practices, not aspirational goals. 

If countries strictly follow a full methane abatement policy, global emissions could be restricted to 13 Mt. 

“Around 70% of methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector could be avoided with existing technologies, often at a low cost,” the IEA said. 

The UAE’s 4.3 million barrels per day of oil exports in early June was up from just 1.9 million barrels per day in March, shortly after the war broke out, the IEA said. The UAE was able to achieve this by using a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to the port Fujairah, in addition to its 42-million-barrel Mandous underground storage facility near the port.

The UAE also ramped up exports through the Strait of Hormuz “with tankers’ transponders turned off to avoid detection,” the IEA said.  

Through the war, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has been quietly ferrying oil and gas shipments out of the Gulf using its own fleet, apparently clearing both the Iranian navy and US warships to reach energy-starved customers. That made Adnoc one of the region’s most active shippers, often using smaller tankers to shuttle crude out of the strait.

That type of shipping was one of the many workarounds that helped to keep crude from skyrocketing further during the supply crisis, with the market defying many of the industry’s grimmest forecasts for prices as high as $200. The steady trickle of crude that still made its way through the strait came amid record US exports, along with a sharp and unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand. 

Oil prices are now trading near pre-war levels, after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal and flows picked up through the critical strait. Even though more ships have begun signaling their transits, some still opt to turn off their transponders for a portion of the crossing.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Petroleos Mexicanos and Petroleo Brasileiro SA signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to begin joint cooperation on exploration and production, including in shallow and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico - and to determine whether a pre-salt layer exists there - as well as in refining, natural gas, petrochemicals and other areas, the chief executives of both companies said in an event in Rio de Janeiro.

The agreement brings together Latin America’s two biggest oil companies. For Pemex, it’s an opportunity to work with one of the world’s top deepwater operators as it grapples with huge debts, declining output and a reputation as one of the world’s most inefficient oil producers. Petrobras, meanwhile, is on the hunt for places to drill beyond Brazil as it tries to line up reserves for the decades ahead.

The agreement will kick off further collaboration on exploring Mexico’s largely untapped deepwater resources, though exploration will not be limited to the Gulf, Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Magda Chambriard said. 

Other opportunities could exist in shallow waters, increasing output of heavy and super heavy crude from Mexico’s maturing oil fields, and in natural gas, Pemex’s chief executive Juan Carlos Carpio said at the event. The companies will also explore whether a pre-salt layer of oil exists in the Gulf of Mexico, he said. 

In Brazil, the major pre-salt fields brought on line in the 2010s deliver about 80% of the country’s production.

Mexico’s deepwater and ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico remains largely unexplored, making it a promising frontier for Petrobras, according to geologist Pedro Zalan. Offshore areas such as the Bay of Campeche contain salt and warrant further exploration, said the consultant, who spent 34 years at Petrobras.

Pemex is also committed to turning the agreement into concrete opportunities and tangible commitments for joint investment as the companies look for ways to team up in refining, petrochemicals, fertilizers, gas processing, clean energy and industrial safety, Carpio said.

The idea of a partnership between the state-run oil majors began earlier this year after the Brazil’s leader suggested the nations could explore Mexico’s largely untapped deepwater assets together. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva discussed energy cooperation with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum in a video call earlier this month, as the leaders of Latin America’s two biggest economies seek to strengthen trade ties.

Pemex has been seeking joint ventures to boost crude output from its aging oil fields, increase gas production and explore for new assets. Pemex has struggled with its finances in recent years under a roughly $80 billion debt load, a loss-making refining business, inefficiencies, explosions, oil spills and flagging profits.

Pemex’s production woes partially stem from the fact that many of its key offshore assets like Cantarell, a once-massive shallow water field that at its peak produced more than two million barrels per day, have begun drying up in recent years. Output at its 60,000 barrel-a-day Ku-Maloob Zap formation is also declining, while its Zama field, a 750-million barrel play under development with partners Wintershell Dea and Harbour Energy, hasn’t yet come online.

For its part, Petrobras is seeking discoveries to expand its international upstream portfolio and extend the Brazilian oil boom, led by the 2006 discovery of the massive pre-salt offshore basin. The discovery helped Brazil become Latin America’s top energy exporter, with oil surpassing soybeans, beef, iron and other commodities as the nation’s largest export by 2024. 

Pemex is hoping to leverage the expertise Petrobras developed by lifting crude from Brazil’s ultra-deep water reserves trapped 5,000 meters (3.1 miles) or more below sea level. It’s a proposal that has a lot of appeal for Pemex, even if major questions remain over how the deal will be structured and which party will finance the exploration, John Padilla, founder and director of consultancy Paramos Energy, said in a June 5 interview.

“Details matter, and the question is whether the Mexican government will be willing to put up a significant portion of major risk capital that’s going to be needed,” Padilla said, adding that similar wildcat offshore exploration often require tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in financing. “Presumably, Pemex isn’t going to put up that money, so that would imply that Petrobras would fund the vast majority of those efforts.”

Petrobras has had difficulties during previous expansions in Latin America this century. It had gas fields expropriated in Bolivia, and in Venezuela it scaled back and eventually exited after the investment climate deteriorated and fiscal terms got more onerous. 

While around 2 million barrels per day are produced in deep water fields in the US territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico, on the Mexican side there’s not yet any commercial output from such projects. Sheinbaum’s predecessor, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, discontinued competitive oil auctions that had begun to offer up offshore fields a decade ago.

Chambriard said both companies, which are responsible for national energy security, have lagged at building robust exploration portfolios in recent years. Mexico’s side of the Gulf is an opportunity, and the two companies could even look at opportunities in Africa and Brazil, she said.

“Did all of the Gulf of Mexico’s oil really end up only on the US side?,” she said Tuesday. “We need to look at the Mexican side of the Gulf through a new lens and with new technologies.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Exelon Corp. Chief Executive Officer Calvin Butler said he’s working with officials in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey to change rules that prevent the company from owning generation assets. The company is exploring land acquisitions in those states to develop battery storage, gas-fired plants and solar farms, as soon as nine months of receiving regulatory approvals, he said.

“When legislation passes, we’ll be ready to go,” Butler said in an interview Tuesday. “That will help drive costs down.”

Artificial intelligence is spurring a sharp increase in electricity demand after two decades of stagnant growth, forcing a rethink of how to expand supply without saddling ratepayers with extra costs. After decades of market deregulation across much of the US, Exelon is leading a push for more utilities to get back into the power generation business and avoid missing out on a booming market.

Unlike utilities, so-called independent power producers in the states where Exelon operates have been able to generate electricity and sell it at higher prices. That market, known as a capacity market, seeks to ensure reliability during periods of system stress by paying power plants to guarantee they can deliver electricity when needed. Exelon has argued that those costs are being passed onto consumers and would be better contained under a regulated framework.

Chicago-based Exelon once owned generation assets through Constellation Energy Corp., including the largest US fleet of nuclear reactors, before spinning off the business into a separate company in 2022.

“Exelon could already be building and connecting new resources through an unregulated affiliate,” said Todd Snitchler, CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, which represents competitive suppliers. Instead, they have pushed for a change in law that benefits them at the expense of captive customers, who cannot avoid the non-bypassable charges added to their bills when new generation is placed in the rate base, he said.

Butler’s comments add to signs that AI-fueled electricity demand is triggering changes across the utilities sector, following NextEra Energy Inc.’s agreement last month to buy Dominion Energy Inc. The blockbuster deal would create an industry giant, extending from Florida to the AI data centers clustered in Virginia.

Butler said Exelon’s plan would involve partnering with engineering firms to build new generating facilities. The company already can own battery-storage assets in New Jersey and Maryland, and expects Delaware to follow suit as soon as this week, he said. Additional changes should come over the the next 18 months, he added.

“Our governors and legislators are realizing you can’t drive prices down if you don’t have adequate supply,” Butler said.

(Adds comment from industry association executive in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell less than 1% to settle above $73 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent dipped about 1% to around $77 a barrel. Oil has fallen precipitously since the US and Iran inked an interim peace deal last week that promised to reopen the strait, a vital chokepoint for seaborne oil trade. Prices are currently around 40% lower than they were at the height of the conflict.

Now, more ships are transiting the strait with their satellite signals switched on. India, meanwhile, sent two ships back to the region for the first time since February. And the International Maritime Organization said it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Gulf.

“The simple fact that flows are resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and strategic petroleum reserves are continuing to push oil into the market will keep things down for the near term,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank.

Prices have also been pushed down by Monday’s news that the US issued a 60-day license permitting the sale of some Iranian oil and petroleum products, offering Tehran an economic lifeline. The two sides are continuing talks to try and find a permanent peace agreement, though the licenses were detailed in the interim pact.

The US waiver permits almost anyone to purchase and pay for Iranian oil, including American refineries, though some might be unwilling to take on the risk. 

And while Iran is wooing customers, buyers in Asia don’t appear to be in a rush, having already secured alternative shipments to work around the months-long blockade of the strait.

Supply from the Gulf has ticked up recently, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding workarounds to get energy out. Iran has also shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday that a “record” 19 million barrels had flowed out of Hormuz the previous day.

In addition to oil waivers, Iran said $12 billion of its frozen funds are set to be released as part of ongoing talks. US President Donald Trump said Iran will only be able to use those funds to purchase food and medical supplies from the US.

While both sides are indicating progress in the talks, questions remain about the prospects of a long-term deal, offering something of a floor to prices. There’s expected to be protracted wrangling on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the status of a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah and the safe reopening of the strait.

Iran and Oman said they were beginning work on a pact for the administration of the strait, including the cost of managing transit, with concerns remaining that Iran will levy a fee for traveling through the vital chokepoint.

The road to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be a “long, drawn-out, paced” process, Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier said at a JP Morgan Chase & Co. conference on Tuesday.

Similarly, clinching a deal could prove to be an extended process, he said.

Other supply concerns may also lift prices, including the possibility of a complete diesel export ban in Russia. The country is mulling the move amid relentless Ukranian drone attacks on refineries, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.