The so-called Mission 300 program is the biggest attempt yet to boost energy access on a continent that’s home to about 80% of the 570 million people globally who have no access to power. 

The program is expected to see tens of billions of dollars invested to reach a target of 300 million connections by 2030 as the development institutions push governments to enact power-industry reforms to woo private investors in exchange for funding. 

“The momentum that we’ve been working on is starting to pay off,” Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s managing director of operations, said in an interview. “Governments have to double down on reforms because nothing flows in an area where there’s uncertainty. There’s no investment flowing to uncertainty.”

To date the program, created in 2024, has brought power to more than 50 million people. So far 36 countries have produced compacts, detailed plans on how to boost power access, under the program and that number is expected to rise to more than 40 in 2026, according to Bjerde.

This year the African Development Bank plans to approve projects itself to bring power connections to as many as 15 million people, said Kevin Kariuki, the lender’s vice president for power, energy, climate and green growth. Those projects include a program of about $59 million to roll out mini-grids in Eritrea, one of the world’s most isolated nations. 

“Some bragging rights are in order. We are currently the most active multilateral development bank in Eritrea,” Kariuki said in an interview. “It’s in countries where there is almost nothing that transformation can be most visible.”

Eritrea, which has been led by Isaias Afwerki since 1993, has fought wars against its neighbors and has been in default to the World Bank since 2012.

Other programs set up under the Mission 300 umbrella are also expected to get underway this year.

Zafiri, a $176 million platform set up to buy equity stakes in companies that provide off-grid power to help them expand, expects to make its first investments this year, according to Andrew Herskowitz of the Rockefeller Foundation, which helped set it up.

Nations in east and southern Africa are also being pushed to develop cross-border trading in power through interconnected grids. 

“We’re really back into power pools,” Bjerde said. “If Africa can get these pools to work, you can lower costs across borders and take advantage of countries with surpluses.”

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Brent crude slipped below $74 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was near $70 on Friday. Both benchmarks climbed more than 2% in the previous session — the first increase this week — after the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing southeast of Oman.

Ships had been openly transiting the waterway following early progress toward a lasting agreement to end the US-Iran war, adding millions of barrels to the global market. Further talks between Washington and Tehran are likely to be protracted on issues including nuclear policy, but oil futures have rapidly declined recently and are on track for a third weekly loss.

A White House official said it was too soon to say who carried out the strike on the vessel. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there were no deaths or environmental damage, and that it was able to continue sailing.

The attack has rattled the fragile confidence of shipowners and crews, though ships continued to transit through the narrow corridor on Friday. A handful of tankers turned around early on Thursday after reportedly getting warnings from the Iranian Navy, while the International Maritime Organization said it was pausing its evacuation operations in the strait.

Two key exit routes through Hormuz have emerged because the normal one through the middle is thought to have been mined. One is near Iran, while the other hugs Oman’s coastline and is protected by the US. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said Thursday that any transit happening in routes outside its framework would not be protected by “safe-passage guarantees.”

Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the strait was open. He made the remarks at the White House while saying Iran would buy US farm goods with money from unfrozen assets, a claim disputed by Tehran.

The attack caused a “short-covering move,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “If you add in a market that has been extremely oversold, prices are more likely to move into a ‘back and fill’ correction before any new selling emerges.”

Earlier this week, Gulf oil was streaming out of the waterway at the fastest pace since the war began. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it sees Gulf exports now running at almost two-thirds of normal levels, while the pace of visible global inventory declines has slowed.

Gulf producers have been rapidly raising output, but are finding it difficult to secure tankers to ferry the oil out. Iraq has been forced to order a production halt at one of its key fields due to the shortage. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar are all boosting supply.

Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup oil sales lost during the war, even raising the prospect on it could consider leaving the group. The country’s oil ministry later said an exit hasn’t been proposed, and consideration of a move isn’t the government’s official position.

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At least eight empty vessels have congregated off the Ras Laffan facility after most transited through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Another tanker in the Gulf is on its way to the plant, while two other Qatar-linked ships are approaching the eastern entrance of Hormuz, the data shows.

QatarEnergy operates Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, but output has been largely halted since Iranian attacks damaged two production trains and the war led to a near-closure of Hormuz. Higher exports depend on safe passage through the strait, with an attack on a cargo ship renewing concerns and leading to one LNG tanker U-turning before entering.

QatarEnergy — which exported nearly a fifth of global LNG supply last year — has been testing equipment and performing necessary maintenance to prepare for a rapid output increase. Several production trains have been operating at reduced capacity so that the plant can deliver shipments to neighbors, but also be able to raise supply when necessary, Bloomberg previously reported.

Qatar plans to return to normal LNG output within weeks from the undamaged parts of its facility, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said in an interview with the Financial Times this week. The 10-day moving average of exports from Ras Laffan have more than doubled in the past month, but they are still about 80% below year-ago levels, ship-data shows.

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This, coupled with the US Treasury's decision on 22 June to defer Iranian oil sanctions until August 21, has also paved the way for a rapid ramp up of production. 

Thus, as producers across the Gulf restored output faster than expected, Brent crude fell to around $73 per barrel, while WTI teetered close to $70.

According to Rystad Energy, shut-in crude production in the region reached 9.6 million bpd, down from 11.7 million bpd, and the consultancy now expects output to return to prewar levels by the end of 2026, instead of Q1 2027. 

“Two million barrels a day came back online in three weeks, and the recovery is spread across the region,” said Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy.

Rystad also expects total regional outages to fall below 2 million bpd by the end of Q3 2026, as producers continue bringing fields back online ahead of earlier expectations. 

UAE and Saudi Arabia take the lead

Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at Ras Tanura on 26 June after a nearly four-month suspension, signalling another important step towards restoring Gulf exports.

Two Very Large Crude Carriers operated by Bahri were seen loading crude at the world’s largest oil export terminal, while another vessel waited offshore.

Saudi Arabia strengthened its position through extensive use of its East-West pipeline during the conflict, which links eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. 

The UAE too depended heavily on the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline during the crisis, and is poised to double its capacity by next year.

Saudi Arabia along with the UAE emerged as the most resilient producers throughout the conflict, as they were able to maintain exports using infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. 

​Together, they account for around 65% of the crude still being produced across the region during the disruption.

“Saudi Arabia is on track for a record 4.5 million bpd through Yanbu this month. The supply picture is clearly improving,” said Saraswat. 

Iraq's SOMO, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy have all launched tenders for July cargoes. 

The Iran outlook 

​Iran, meanwhile, is recording the sharpest rebound. “Iran is moving fastest because its shut-in was shorter and upstream damage was limited,” explained Saraswat.

Due to easing sanctions, the naval blockade lifted, and shipping activity gradually resuming, Rystad estimates Iranian production could rise from approximately 2.4 million bpd today to 3.1 million bpd by August. 

If sanctions relief extend beyond August, production could climb to 3.3 million bpd by the end of the year, exceeding pre-conflict output.

Strait of Hormuz: the biggest uncertainty 

Despite the improving situation, concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain. 

According to Saraswat, storage facilities across the Gulf are currently estimated to be only 50% to 60% full after producers relied heavily on inventories to maintain exports during the disruption. 

Unless tanker traffic returns to normal levels soon, producers may once again have to curb output as storage capacity fills, according to Rystad.

Although crude loadings and shipping activity have resumed, security concerns persist after a commercial vessel was struck by an unidentified object in the Strait of Hormuz this week, briefly reigniting fears over the durability of the ceasefire.

“The variable that will determine how quickly prices settle at a new level is Hormuz transit volumes,” Saraswat said, adding that “The diplomatic agreement is a necessary first step, and physical tanker flows through Hormuz are what we are watching now.”

A shipment of the nation’s Al-Shaheen grade was sold this week to Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp., which sought supplies for August to September, according to traders familiar with the matter. The volumes were sold by trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., they said.

Some of the same grade, as well as Qatar’s Marine and Land varieties, were sold to an Indian refiner last week, said the traders, who asked not to be named as they may not speak publicly.

The deals represent the first observed transactions for Qatari crude to refiners in Asia since the war began, although the country has been much more active in reviving production and exports of liquefied natural gas.

In addition, state-owned QatarEnergy on Thursday issued its first crude oil sell tender since the Iran war began. It’s offering cargoes over July and August, which can either be picked up within the Persian Gulf or via ship-to-ship transfer at locations just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures have cratered this month, although prices ticked higher on Thursday after an attack on a cargo ship in Hormuz, renewing concerns about safe passage through the waterway. Increased activity through the strait had seen crude exports from the United Arab Emirates rebound, as well as sales from Iraq and Kuwait.

Qatar has been able to get LNG tankers into and out of the Persian Gulf through the strait. It plans to rapidly boost production of the super-chilled fuel once the waterway fully reopens, restoring most export capacity in two months, said other people familiar with the matter.

There’s been increased tanker activity near Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility. The Kiku, a Greek-owned supertanker, was loading 2 million barrels of Qatari crude from the Al-Shaheen floating storage and offloading terminal, ship-tracking data show. 

Kiku appeared in the Persian Gulf on June 19, after last broadcasting from the Gulf of Oman on June 13, making the very large crude carrier one of the first mainstream tankers to enter the gulf since the US-Iran deal.

Separately, state-owned QatarEnergy had also offered a cargo of gasoline for export next month, from its Mesaieed refinery in the Persian Gulf, in a sign that wider processing operations are ramping up.

QatarEnergy — which is responsible for the country’s energy supply, including oil, products and LNG — didn’t respond to a request for comment. In addition, Apex Shipping & Energy Ltd. in Greece, listed as manager of Kiku on the Equasis database, didn’t respond to emails seeking comment.

(Updates with Qatari sell tender in fifth paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

There can be “no question” that the current tensions in the Middle East have accelerated demand for renewable energy, Kerry, who is co-executive chair of investment manager Galvanize, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Guy Johnson. 

“I think if you talk to knowledgeable folks in the business world, while they don’t make a lot of noise about it right now, they are moving forward,” he said.

The comments come as oil has erased its wartime gains after flows through the Strait of Hormuz ramped up following progress on a US-Iran peace deal.

Kerry pointed to investments in Texas and the United Arab Emirates as examples showing how even governments not necessarily ideologically aligned with the green shift are moving toward the economic logic of renewables.

The “UAE, for instance — an oil and gas producing country — they are building out 19 gigawatts of battery storage and have put four new nuclear plants online, and they have one of the largest solar fields in the world,” Kerry said. Texas “is now massively building out onshore solar and wind.”

Kerry is in the British capital for London Climate Action Week, where politicians, academics and business leaders have gathered to discuss how to address rising temperatures as Europe deals with a heat wave that’s shattered records across the continent.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Every half-decade, Chinese leaders publish a five-year plan outlining economic and societal goals, and then follow it up with several sectoral schemes with more detailed targets and strategies. This year, the broader plan came out in March, and sectoral plans have begun trickling out in recent weeks, including ones on jobs and urban renewal. 

The plan’s release comes at a seeming inflection point for China’s energy transition. Years of rapid build-outs of solar and wind farms have showed that the country has the means to expand clean energy fast enough to power its growing economy, while chipping away at its world-leading emissions. But that’s also put unprecedented strain on the electricity grid, leading to rising curtailment and a slowdown in new renewable installations.

Energy was already a major component of the broader five-year plan. It called for China to peak its coal and oil during the 2026-30 period, double non-fossil fuel energy over the next decade, and focus on developing technologies like hydrogen and nuclear fusion. It also sought to make progress on a major gas pipeline from Russia, and boost capacity of generating technologies like nuclear, offshore wind and pumped hydro storage.

Key targets from the new energy plan include:

Some other details from the plan:

• Wind and solar will account for more than 50% of total installed power capacity.
• It targets 160 gigawatts of pumped hydro and 300 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, along with 50 gigawatts of virtual power plants for demand response.
• It targets 2 million tons of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030, nearly double what’s currently online and under construction.
• Oil output will be maintained at around 200 million tons a year, while natural gas production will steadily increase.
• The country will rationally plan and construct natural gas power plants and promote domestic construction of gas turbines.
• Develop more than 100 million tons a year of coal production capacity that is ready to produce when needed.
• Develop future technologies, such as nuclear fusion, space-based power plants and superconducting transmission.

(Updates with additional details from plan)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The UK group has “the technology that fits our specifications” and “fits the high-level criteria,” Studsvik CEO Karl Thedeen said in an interview at the Swedish political week Almedalen. He also stressed that no decision has been made and that the process is ongoing.

Earlier this month, Sweden’s Videberg Kraft AB picked Rolls-Royce to supply it with several new small nuclear reactors to help meet surging power demand in the decades ahead.

Rolls-Royce is emerging as one of Europe’s leading contenders in the race to commercialize so-called small modular reactors. The company has signed contracts with Great British Energy–Nuclear to develop the UK’s first SMRs and is advancing plans with utility CEZ to deploy its technology in the Czech Republic. Another Swedish partnership would further strengthen its position as governments across the continent turn to nuclear power to bolster energy security and meet climate goals.

Studsvik’s project involves developing new nuclear generating capacity of as much as 1,400 megawatts. A special purpose vehicle, or SPV, will be established to develop it. Studsvik recently submitted an application to the government for state support. 

“If you compare to Videberg Kraft that selected Rolls-Royce, they were a customer and they wanted a vendor. We are a partner looking for other partners,” Thedeen said.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Umm Al Ashtan, a tanker owned by Adnoc Logistics & Services, appeared inside the gulf next to Adnoc’s Das Island LNG export plant on Wednesday after not sending a signal for nearly two weeks, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That suggests that the vessel traversed the Strait of Hormuz recently with its transponder turned off.

More vessels have been turning on their transponders as they sail in and out of the Gulf in recent days, reflecting the improving security situation around Hormuz. While some ships have begun broadcasting their entire journeys in and out of the gulf, others, like Umm Al Ashtan and Adnoc’s Abu Dhabi II and Al Bateen, are still choosing to push through Hormuz in the dark.

Signaling from within the Gulf, though, is a shift from recent months when Adnoc’s vessels have avoided doing so due to safety concerns.

Adnoc didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment.

For about two months, Adnoc’s ships have halted at the eastern end of the Strait of Hormuz, switched of their transponders to traverse into the gulf, then restarted sending signals once out again with a cargo. At least six Adnoc LNG shipments were exported using this strategy since late-April, according to satellite and ship data.

More LNG vessels have been able to move openly through the waterway after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal, with at least six empty tankers traversing the strait to come into the Gulf since Monday, as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates expand exports of the super-chilled fuel. Most of these ships were sending a signal while going through the waterway.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Some 239 gigawatts of proposed solar, wind and hydropower capacity across 10 Indian states — about 90% of the total — face high or critical vulnerabilities to compounding weather events like tornadoes, wildfires and extreme floods, Zurich Insurance Group AG said in an assessment published Thursday. 

“It hits the balance sheet,” Mark Fletcher, head of Zurich Resilience Solutions for Asia Pacific, said in an interview. “If your solar panel is less efficient, you’re generating less revenue. If your wind farm is blown down and you have four or five turbines damaged, you have a business interruption on the revenue side, but you also have a direct cost to fix that.”

The findings underscore the scale of the challenge for India — the world’s third-largest carbon dioxide emitter — to transition its vast energy system, even as it makes rapid progress toward a target to raise the share of electricity generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources to 60% by 2035. Adding ever greater volumes of solar panels or wind turbines won’t be sufficient if the physical hardware cannot survive extreme weather conditions.

Project developers are increasingly finding that an ability to prove they are responding to climate risks is a “condition of capital” to secure financing, Fletcher said.

“Capital is not infinite,” said Ajay Hegde, head of commercial insurance at Zurich Kotak General Insurance, a local unit of Zurich Insurance. “It will then definitely flow towards the ones which show a lot more resilience, versus those which don’t show the resilience.”

Vulnerabilities are most pronounced for solar projects, which accounted for nearly 70% of the 871 planned assets assessed in the report. And while developers routinely model the potential impacts of extreme wind, there’s less attention paid to the risks from hail, which poses a particular threat in prime solar corridors in Rajasthan and Gujarat. 

Hail strikes don’t only threaten shattered panels, they can also induce microscopic fractures that silently degrade a solar plant’s output over time, eating into a project’s revenue. Meanwhile, in drier regions, prolonged droughts compound problems by caking dust onto modules, forcing operators to choose between diminished generation and costly, water-intensive cleaning cycles, Zurich said.

Projected losses as a result of climate damage could be roughly halved to $27 billion with early investment on resilience measures of about $4.6 billion, according to the report.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The assesment comes as a part of the forum's Energy Transition Index 2026, which measures how well national energy systems function in three key areas: security, sustainability, and equity. It also assesses how prepared governments are to facilitate the shift towards clean energy.  The report, published in collaboration with Accenture, found that momentum across regions slowed due to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, even though global investments in clean energy crossed $2.3 trillion last year.  

“Despite growing headwinds, 60% of countries improved their overall scores, although balanced progress is becoming more concentrated, with only one in four countries improving across all three dimensions,” the report said. 

A 'fracturing' of the energy transition 

The report added that the Hormuz interruption has exacerbated the issues already plaguing energy systems, showing that they are still vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, with import-dependent emerging economies being most impacted. 

Countries are under rising and uneven strain due to supply risks and structural limitations, which has consequences for long-term sustainability, affordability, and resilience.

“The energy transition is not reversing, but it is fracturing,” said Roberto Bocca, Head of the Centre for Energy and Materials, World Economic Forum. “In a more volatile geoeconomic environment, security, affordability, and resilience are central to sustaining progress. Closing the gap between ambition and delivery will require stronger foundations, including more diversified and resilient energy systems, faster infrastructure build-out, and capital that can reach markets where it is needed most.”

Nordic countries take the lead

According to the ETI, Sweden took the top spot, followed by Finland, Denmark, Estonia, and Norway, respectively.

Other advanced economies like Singapore also performed well, moving up ten spots on better policy signals, while the US saw a little decline despite stronger performance in security. Germany maintained its position with consistent gains, while Japan saw a slight improvement.

The Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan region saw a decline of 0.9% overall, indicating weakening performance and readiness. Despite this, Saudi Arabia improved its ranking through investments in large-scale battery storage, rapid deployment of renewable energy sources, and increased financial support. 

Published ahead of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China, the ETI report also highlights China’s fast deployment of clean energy systems. With $627 billion invested in clean energy in 2025 and ongoing large-scale renewable capacity expansion, China continues to be Asia's top performer.

This remained the case even though the difficult regulatory and investment climate somewhat offset improvements in infrastructure, energy intensity, and affordability. 

Although ranked 70^th on the ETI, India achieved one of the biggest increases in readiness, which was fuelled by advancements in human capital and infrastructure, making it a crucial participant in the upcoming stage of the transition.

AI and the growing electricity demand

Electrification, cooling, digital infrastructure, and AI all contributed to a 3% increase in the world's electricity demand, which is becoming a key barrier to the transition. Although they contribute over 80% of demand growth, emerging nations still have infrastructure deficiencies and greater financing costs.

In the meantime, clean-energy funding is still quite concentrated, with around 75% going to a small number of economies, despite record overall investment. This widens the gap between where capital is deployed and where demand is growing.

However, to navigate this challenge, AI may come to the rescue. 

“The energy transition is entering a more disruptive and challenging phase, making enterprise resilience an increasingly important priority for business leaders,” said Muqsit Ashraf, Global Lead for Industry and Enterprise at Accenture. “Organisations that use technology and AI to improve adaptability, strengthen decision-making, and respond more effectively to change will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and sustain long-term growth.”

Tackling geopolitical uncertainties 

While the Energy Transition Index (ETI) 2026 shows improvements in energy system performance, it appears increasingly challenging to sustain progress. 

Energy systems must now balance decarbonisation, security, and affordability in an increasingly uncertain environment. According to the World Economic Forum, three key measures must be taken for this to happen: 

• Governments should “Diversify across fuels, import partners, supply chains, and critical minerals” to reduce vulnerabilities. Energy systems should be stress-tested against multiple disruptions, including supply shocks and extreme weather events. Investments in grid modernisation and storage can strengthen resilience, while portfolios combining renewables will help maintain reliability. 
• Greater emphasis must be placed on grids, flexibility, and delivery capability. “Digitise application processes, coordinate environmental review, and pre-designate infrastructure corridors to compress timelines,” the report added. 
• The most important yet challenging aspect for governments will be growing investments and policy stability. Accordingly, they must establish predictable regulatory frameworks, long-term procurement schedules, and transparent market rules.

In a press statement, the forum said that tackling these measures will help in “restoring investability through stable policy frameworks and targeted capital flows, particularly toward the emerging economies that will drive the majority of future demand growth.”

Data centers will account for almost 10% of the National Electricity Market’s underlying demand by 2050 — four times their current share, the Australian Energy Market Operator said in its biennial Integrated System Plan. The report confirmed that the lowest-cost pathway is a system built around renewable energy, connected through transmission and distribution networks and firmed with storage and natural gas.

“Our plan is to deliver more cheaper, cleaner energy, using our sovereign sun and wind energy to shield our grid from global volatility,” said Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen.

Australia’s slowing economy has been propped up by a massive surge in investment into data centers. That comes as the nation’s world-beating uptake of solar and rapidly aging coal generation helped to cause increased volatility and made the country a test case for the global energy transition. 

Households are set to continue to contribute to the massive shift in generation through further uptake of solar panels and batteries. That will see their grid-supplied energy needs fall 44% to 20 terawatt-hours by 2025, despite increased uptake of electrical vehicles and appliances, according to the report.

“Households are already part of the solution,” said Jackie Trad, chief executive officer of the Clean Energy Council. “Rooftop solar is set to quadruple by 2050 and home batteries are taking off,” 

More than a third of suitable dwellings in the National Electricity Market — which supplies about 85% of the nation’s population — have rooftop solar, which is set to rise to 56% by 2050. Meanwhile, small-scale battery capacity is set to jump to 35 gigawatts by 2050, from 5 gigawatts in April. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent slid toward $76 a barrel after falling 1.1% in the previous session, and West Texas Intermediate was below $73. Vessels are transiting the waterway with their satellite signals switched on, indicating growing confidence among shipowners. The International Maritime Organization also said it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Gulf.

Washington and Tehran have both flagged early progress in talks to end the war that began in late February, although negotiations are likely to be protracted and claims from the two sides have diverged. Iran and Oman said they are beginning work on a pact for the administration of Hormuz, including transit costs, with lingering concerns the Islamic Republic could levy fees.

“I think the market has been waiting for the last of the hopeful bulls to give in and we’re finding a bottom close to $75,” said Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus. “There’s a lot of questions ahead: replacing supply, wait time for loadings, China back on the buy side.”

The Republican-led Senate voted Tuesday to end the US war with Iran in a rare symbolic rebuke of President Donald Trump. While the resolution is unlikely to force any changes in the administration’s strategy, it represents the latest sign that the president lacks domestic support for the effort.

Separately, Trump said in a social media post he had ordered the Department of Justice to look into why gasoline prices haven’t fallen faster as oil drops. The national average retail price has declined 14% since late May and is now below $4 a gallon, although it remains above the five-year seasonal average, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

Oil futures have retreated by more than a third from their wartime highs, driven in part by expectations of an impending increase in crude supply. The US has temporarily allowed purchases of Iranian oil as part of the diplomatic process, aiding efforts by sellers to court Asia’s largest refiners.

In a sign of fast-weakening market conditions, the spread between Brent’s two nearest contracts narrowed to 22 cents a barrel in backwardation on Wednesday. The gap was close $10 in early April.

Gulf producers, including the United Arab Emirates, are moving to quickly restore exports. The UAE has recovered to almost 85% of pre-war output levels, according to the International Energy Agency, highlighting the region’s ability to ramp supply back up. Kuwait has rolled back its force majeure declarations, while Iraq is also boosting production.

Still, there are signs of tightness in some markets, including the US. The American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventories at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by another 1 million barrels last week, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. If confirmed by official data later Wednesday, that would mean stockpiles have dropped below the 20-million-barrel mark that’s widely seen as the minimum operating level.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The telecoms unit of SoftBank is seeking a stake in Tokyo Electric Power Co., Masayoshi Son told shareholders on Wednesday. Having Tepco — as the utility is known — within SoftBank’s sphere of influence would help the firm push into AI data centers, which require large amounts of power, he said.

Tokyo-based SoftBank is one of the world’s foremost supporters of AI, and has been exploring ways to secure energy for its ambitions in Japan. The group’s telecoms unit plans to transform a factory in Osaka into one of the country’s biggest production lines for large-scale batteries.

Tepco is on the hunt for a capital tie-up to help turn its business around and underpin the ballooning costs of cleaning up the wrecked Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant. The company earlier this year sought proposals from potential partners.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Global gas flaring increased for the third consecutive year in 2025, reaching 167 billion cubic metres (bcm), according to the latest Global Gas Flaring Tracker released by the World Bank Group.

The figure represents a six-year high and equates to approximately $54 billion worth of wasted gas that could otherwise have been used to generate electricity, support industry, and strengthen energy security.  

The scale of the waste is significant. The amount of gas flared last year was nearly equivalent to Africa’s annual gas consumption and exceeded the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that transited the Arabian Gulf during the same period.

The highest flaring countries 

In several oil-producing nations, large volumes of associated gas continue to be burned off at production sites rather than captured and brought to market.

According to the report, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Mexico, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, and the US in that order account for 80% of global gas flaring despite representing less than half of the world’s oil production. These countries have dominated gas flaring for the past 15 years.

The World Bank argues that reducing routine flaring presents an opportunity to address both energy security and emissions challenges. It estimates that eliminating routine flaring worldwide would require investments of between $70-$100 billion, which is less than twice the annual value of the gas currently being wasted.

For many developing economies, this represents a contradiction. Several countries continue to import expensive natural gas while simultaneously flaring substantial quantities of domestic gas resources at oilfields.

Capturing and utilising this gas could help expand power generation capacity, lower energy costs, and create new revenue streams.

The World Bank argues that reducing routine flaring presents an opportunity to address both energy security and emissions challenges. It estimates that eliminating routine flaring worldwide would require investments of between $70-$100 billion, which is less than twice the annual value of the gas currently being wasted.

“At a time when many countries are struggling to increase affordable and reliable energy, the economic development costs of continued flaring are simply too high,” said Demetrios Papathanasiou, Global Director for Energy at the World Bank Group.

Despite decades of technological progress, industry experts argue that the barriers to reducing flaring are no longer technical. Gas capture technologies, processing systems, and financing mechanisms are widely available. Instead, progress is often hindered by regulatory shortcomings, inadequate infrastructure, financing constraints, and a lack of political and corporate prioritisation.

According to Zubin Bamji, World Bank Manager for the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) Partnership, the challenge now is one of leadership and execution rather than innovation.

“The technologies, policies, regulations and financing mechanisms needed to capture and utilise associated gas are available,” Bamji said. “What is missing, in too many places, is the leadership, prioritisation and governance needed to put these solutions into practice.”

But the industry is keen on reducing flaring, as can be seen from steps taken by several countries. 

“The technologies, policies, regulations, and financing mechanisms needed to capture and utilise associated gas are available. What is missing, in too many places, is the leadership, prioritisation, and governance needed to put these solutions into practice, creating access to markets and infrastructure.”

- Zubin Bamji, World Bank Manager for the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) Partnership

The World Bank noted the US was the only country that saw its flaring volumes decrease in 2025, even though oil production increased by 3% last year. Flaring quantities and intensity decreased by 13% and 15%, respectively in the Permian Basin, which was the main cause of this fall.

The Matterhorn Express pipeline, which went into service at the end of 2024 and offered a practical export route for associated gas from the Permian, was a major factor in the decrease in flaring in the region.

Where governments and operators have implemented strong policies and invested in supporting infrastructure, results have followed. Kazakhstan, for example, has reduced gas flaring by 87% since 2012, including a further 16% decline in 2025 alone, demonstrating the impact of sustained regulatory action and industry commitment.

The situation in Argentina has been somewhat alleviated by new pipelines and gas processing developments, and flaring intensity has steadily decreased, with a notable decrease in both flaring quantities and intensity in 2025.

In the same year, India passed new regulations requiring more stringent oversight and limiting flaring to 0.5% of field output. Producers have been able to stabilise operations in Syria thanks to peace following the end of political conflict. 

Saudi Arabia, Mozambique, Ghana, and Uzbekistan also saw small reductions in flare volumes.

The methane factor 

Flaring releases harmful gases, most importantly, methane. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), 125 million tonnes (Mt) of methane were released into the atmosphere in 2024. 

Moreover, World Bank data found that flaring in 2025 generated 429 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO₂e) in total emissions, of which 50 MMtCO₂e came from unburned methane due to incomplete combustion.

While this is alarming, there is good news. Methane emissions are projected to fall in the lead up to 2050 in all models shown by the IEA. With no methane abatement policies, the figure could drop to 98 Mt by 2050. This is of course, if methane emissions remain constant, with changes in emissions tied to changes in fossil fuel demand.

However, if the IEA’s ‘Stated Policies’ are followed, this number could fall to 71 Mt. The Stated Policies Scenario is a model based on what governments are currently doing to reduce emissions. This includes actual practices, not aspirational goals. 

If countries strictly follow a full methane abatement policy, global emissions could be restricted to 13 Mt. 

“Around 70% of methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector could be avoided with existing technologies, often at a low cost,” the IEA said. 

The UAE’s 4.3 million barrels per day of oil exports in early June was up from just 1.9 million barrels per day in March, shortly after the war broke out, the IEA said. The UAE was able to achieve this by using a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to the port Fujairah, in addition to its 42-million-barrel Mandous underground storage facility near the port.

The UAE also ramped up exports through the Strait of Hormuz “with tankers’ transponders turned off to avoid detection,” the IEA said.  

Through the war, the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has been quietly ferrying oil and gas shipments out of the Gulf using its own fleet, apparently clearing both the Iranian navy and US warships to reach energy-starved customers. That made Adnoc one of the region’s most active shippers, often using smaller tankers to shuttle crude out of the strait.

That type of shipping was one of the many workarounds that helped to keep crude from skyrocketing further during the supply crisis, with the market defying many of the industry’s grimmest forecasts for prices as high as $200. The steady trickle of crude that still made its way through the strait came amid record US exports, along with a sharp and unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand. 

Oil prices are now trading near pre-war levels, after the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal and flows picked up through the critical strait. Even though more ships have begun signaling their transits, some still opt to turn off their transponders for a portion of the crossing.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Petroleos Mexicanos and Petroleo Brasileiro SA signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to begin joint cooperation on exploration and production, including in shallow and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico - and to determine whether a pre-salt layer exists there - as well as in refining, natural gas, petrochemicals and other areas, the chief executives of both companies said in an event in Rio de Janeiro.

The agreement brings together Latin America’s two biggest oil companies. For Pemex, it’s an opportunity to work with one of the world’s top deepwater operators as it grapples with huge debts, declining output and a reputation as one of the world’s most inefficient oil producers. Petrobras, meanwhile, is on the hunt for places to drill beyond Brazil as it tries to line up reserves for the decades ahead.

The agreement will kick off further collaboration on exploring Mexico’s largely untapped deepwater resources, though exploration will not be limited to the Gulf, Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Magda Chambriard said. 

Other opportunities could exist in shallow waters, increasing output of heavy and super heavy crude from Mexico’s maturing oil fields, and in natural gas, Pemex’s chief executive Juan Carlos Carpio said at the event. The companies will also explore whether a pre-salt layer of oil exists in the Gulf of Mexico, he said. 

In Brazil, the major pre-salt fields brought on line in the 2010s deliver about 80% of the country’s production.

Mexico’s deepwater and ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico remains largely unexplored, making it a promising frontier for Petrobras, according to geologist Pedro Zalan. Offshore areas such as the Bay of Campeche contain salt and warrant further exploration, said the consultant, who spent 34 years at Petrobras.

Pemex is also committed to turning the agreement into concrete opportunities and tangible commitments for joint investment as the companies look for ways to team up in refining, petrochemicals, fertilizers, gas processing, clean energy and industrial safety, Carpio said.

The idea of a partnership between the state-run oil majors began earlier this year after the Brazil’s leader suggested the nations could explore Mexico’s largely untapped deepwater assets together. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva discussed energy cooperation with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum in a video call earlier this month, as the leaders of Latin America’s two biggest economies seek to strengthen trade ties.

Pemex has been seeking joint ventures to boost crude output from its aging oil fields, increase gas production and explore for new assets. Pemex has struggled with its finances in recent years under a roughly $80 billion debt load, a loss-making refining business, inefficiencies, explosions, oil spills and flagging profits.

Pemex’s production woes partially stem from the fact that many of its key offshore assets like Cantarell, a once-massive shallow water field that at its peak produced more than two million barrels per day, have begun drying up in recent years. Output at its 60,000 barrel-a-day Ku-Maloob Zap formation is also declining, while its Zama field, a 750-million barrel play under development with partners Wintershell Dea and Harbour Energy, hasn’t yet come online.

For its part, Petrobras is seeking discoveries to expand its international upstream portfolio and extend the Brazilian oil boom, led by the 2006 discovery of the massive pre-salt offshore basin. The discovery helped Brazil become Latin America’s top energy exporter, with oil surpassing soybeans, beef, iron and other commodities as the nation’s largest export by 2024. 

Pemex is hoping to leverage the expertise Petrobras developed by lifting crude from Brazil’s ultra-deep water reserves trapped 5,000 meters (3.1 miles) or more below sea level. It’s a proposal that has a lot of appeal for Pemex, even if major questions remain over how the deal will be structured and which party will finance the exploration, John Padilla, founder and director of consultancy Paramos Energy, said in a June 5 interview.

“Details matter, and the question is whether the Mexican government will be willing to put up a significant portion of major risk capital that’s going to be needed,” Padilla said, adding that similar wildcat offshore exploration often require tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in financing. “Presumably, Pemex isn’t going to put up that money, so that would imply that Petrobras would fund the vast majority of those efforts.”

Petrobras has had difficulties during previous expansions in Latin America this century. It had gas fields expropriated in Bolivia, and in Venezuela it scaled back and eventually exited after the investment climate deteriorated and fiscal terms got more onerous. 

While around 2 million barrels per day are produced in deep water fields in the US territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico, on the Mexican side there’s not yet any commercial output from such projects. Sheinbaum’s predecessor, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, discontinued competitive oil auctions that had begun to offer up offshore fields a decade ago.

Chambriard said both companies, which are responsible for national energy security, have lagged at building robust exploration portfolios in recent years. Mexico’s side of the Gulf is an opportunity, and the two companies could even look at opportunities in Africa and Brazil, she said.

“Did all of the Gulf of Mexico’s oil really end up only on the US side?,” she said Tuesday. “We need to look at the Mexican side of the Gulf through a new lens and with new technologies.”

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Exelon Corp. Chief Executive Officer Calvin Butler said he’s working with officials in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland and New Jersey to change rules that prevent the company from owning generation assets. The company is exploring land acquisitions in those states to develop battery storage, gas-fired plants and solar farms, as soon as nine months of receiving regulatory approvals, he said.

“When legislation passes, we’ll be ready to go,” Butler said in an interview Tuesday. “That will help drive costs down.”

Artificial intelligence is spurring a sharp increase in electricity demand after two decades of stagnant growth, forcing a rethink of how to expand supply without saddling ratepayers with extra costs. After decades of market deregulation across much of the US, Exelon is leading a push for more utilities to get back into the power generation business and avoid missing out on a booming market.

Unlike utilities, so-called independent power producers in the states where Exelon operates have been able to generate electricity and sell it at higher prices. That market, known as a capacity market, seeks to ensure reliability during periods of system stress by paying power plants to guarantee they can deliver electricity when needed. Exelon has argued that those costs are being passed onto consumers and would be better contained under a regulated framework.

Chicago-based Exelon once owned generation assets through Constellation Energy Corp., including the largest US fleet of nuclear reactors, before spinning off the business into a separate company in 2022.

“Exelon could already be building and connecting new resources through an unregulated affiliate,” said Todd Snitchler, CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, which represents competitive suppliers. Instead, they have pushed for a change in law that benefits them at the expense of captive customers, who cannot avoid the non-bypassable charges added to their bills when new generation is placed in the rate base, he said.

Butler’s comments add to signs that AI-fueled electricity demand is triggering changes across the utilities sector, following NextEra Energy Inc.’s agreement last month to buy Dominion Energy Inc. The blockbuster deal would create an industry giant, extending from Florida to the AI data centers clustered in Virginia.

Butler said Exelon’s plan would involve partnering with engineering firms to build new generating facilities. The company already can own battery-storage assets in New Jersey and Maryland, and expects Delaware to follow suit as soon as this week, he said. Additional changes should come over the the next 18 months, he added.

“Our governors and legislators are realizing you can’t drive prices down if you don’t have adequate supply,” Butler said.

(Adds comment from industry association executive in seventh paragraph.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

West Texas Intermediate fell less than 1% to settle above $73 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent dipped about 1% to around $77 a barrel. Oil has fallen precipitously since the US and Iran inked an interim peace deal last week that promised to reopen the strait, a vital chokepoint for seaborne oil trade. Prices are currently around 40% lower than they were at the height of the conflict.

Now, more ships are transiting the strait with their satellite signals switched on. India, meanwhile, sent two ships back to the region for the first time since February. And the International Maritime Organization said it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Gulf.

“The simple fact that flows are resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and strategic petroleum reserves are continuing to push oil into the market will keep things down for the near term,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank.

Prices have also been pushed down by Monday’s news that the US issued a 60-day license permitting the sale of some Iranian oil and petroleum products, offering Tehran an economic lifeline. The two sides are continuing talks to try and find a permanent peace agreement, though the licenses were detailed in the interim pact.

The US waiver permits almost anyone to purchase and pay for Iranian oil, including American refineries, though some might be unwilling to take on the risk. 

And while Iran is wooing customers, buyers in Asia don’t appear to be in a rush, having already secured alternative shipments to work around the months-long blockade of the strait.

Supply from the Gulf has ticked up recently, with producers such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates finding workarounds to get energy out. Iran has also shipped more than 30 million barrels over the past week. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday that a “record” 19 million barrels had flowed out of Hormuz the previous day.

In addition to oil waivers, Iran said $12 billion of its frozen funds are set to be released as part of ongoing talks. US President Donald Trump said Iran will only be able to use those funds to purchase food and medical supplies from the US.

While both sides are indicating progress in the talks, questions remain about the prospects of a long-term deal, offering something of a floor to prices. There’s expected to be protracted wrangling on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the status of a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah and the safe reopening of the strait.

Iran and Oman said they were beginning work on a pact for the administration of the strait, including the cost of managing transit, with concerns remaining that Iran will levy a fee for traveling through the vital chokepoint.

The road to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be a “long, drawn-out, paced” process, Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier said at a JP Morgan Chase & Co. conference on Tuesday.

Similarly, clinching a deal could prove to be an extended process, he said.

Other supply concerns may also lift prices, including the possibility of a complete diesel export ban in Russia. The country is mulling the move amid relentless Ukranian drone attacks on refineries, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In a letter to European leaders, the countries asked for a “pragmatic approach” to clarifying the rules and adopting changes to allow importers to continue to obtain oil and gas needed by the EU.

The letter, also signed by Nigeria and Algeria, comes as the EU is under pressure to lower its persistently high energy prices and is set to boost gas imports from the US against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict. Some European governments want to discuss the impact of the methane regulation on energy security at a meeting of the bloc’s energy ministers later this week.

In Brussels, the call to amend the methane rules is led by the Czech Republic and Slovakia, who want European Commission to “consider as a matter of urgency all available options to reduce barriers to natural gas and crude oil imports,” including through targeted amendments to the regulations.

The commission, the EU’s regulatory arm, has so far declined to change the regulations, choosing instead to rely on recommendations to member states to limit fines for companies that are unable to comply with the rules on the powerful greenhouse gas. Member states could also adopt a light-touch approach to monitoring, reporting and verifying sources of emissions.

Next year, fossil fuel imports will have to be aligned with the EU’s rules designed to curb emissions of a greenhouse gas that’s 80 times more powerful than CO2 over its first two decades in the atmosphere. By 2030, penalties will be issued for imports that are above a methane-intensity threshold. Under the existing rules, companies could be fined as much as 20% of annual turnover.

For the push at the ministerial meeting to gather momentum, support from big European economies such as Germany will be needed, according to EU diplomats. It’s not clear what position the government in Berlin will take, with the economy ministry endorsing regulatory amendments and the environment ministry opting against weakening the law.

Mike Sommers, chief executive officer of the American Petroleum Institute lobbying group, told reporters Monday that the EU methane policy is flawed.

“We have sent delegations to the EU to work with them on this, and we’re dealing directly with the United States government to hopefully get a policy that makes sense for American producers,” Sommers said. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The funding, announced by the US Energy Department on Tuesday, is being offered on a conditional basis for as many as five loans for utilities and other energy companies that will build two reactors each. Westinghouse has signed letters of intent with seven potential partners, each with identified project sites, the Energy Department said. The agency declined to name the utilities involved until final selections are made. 

President Donald Trump sees nuclear reactors as a key source of power for data centers and economic growth. He signed an executive order last year that called for the US to have 10 large conventional reactors under construction by 2030 amid a goal of quadrupling nuclear power in the country to 400 gigawatts.

While several companies are pushing to build a new generation of small modular reactors in the US, development of large traditional nuclear plants has been mostly dormant. Only three have been completed in the US this century. Not a single one is currently under construction.

The loans will be used to purchase “long-lead time items” such as transformers, steam turbines and reactor vessels that can take years to deliver, according to a press release.

The last commercial-scale reactor built in the US, Southern Co.’s Vogtle nuclear project, was more than $16 billion over budget and seven years behind schedule. 

“We want to get things moving again,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters Tuesday. “We need to build more large reactors again in the United States.”

The gigawatt-scale AP1000 reactor is built by Westinghouse, which is owned by Brookfield Asset Management and Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp, is the only licensed large scale advanced commercial reactor operating in the US. 

“We believe the right incentives are being created to advance the rapid deployment of AP1000 reactors in the US,” Tim Gitzel, Cameco’s Chief Executive Officer, said in a statement.

(Updates with details throughout.)

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry told miners to supply an additional 2.7 million tons of coal to power plants this month, according to a letter dated June 12 seen by Bloomberg News. It cited a ministerial decree allowing the government to force producers to prioritize domestic sales if local needs are not met.

The extra demand amounts to about 2% of the total coal contracted so far this year by state power firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara.

The Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Rolling blackouts last week across Java — Indonesia’s most populous island — are the latest setback for Prabowo, whose administration has been rocked by protests, corruption scandals and the economic fallout from the US-Iran war. The former general has unnerved investors with his fiscal expansion and policy making, leading to a sharp decline in the local currency. 

Indonesia, the world’s top exporter of thermal coal, sharply cut its production this year by tightening government-issued mining quotas in an effort to boost prices. Power blackouts have triggered scrutiny over that policy.

Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, though, said in a Sunday statement that the power outages were caused by technical issues rather than a shortage of coal. Darmawan Prasodjo, president of PLN, said the power disruptions were caused by problems at two large power plants on Java.

Indonesian miners are required to sell a proportion of their coal to domestic consumers, including power plants, each year, usually at below-market prices. Their obligations are often set at the start of the year.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

It is called the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), and it forces a choice the bloc has been reluctant to state plainly: that it cannot, right now, run its energy transition both quickly and on its own terms. It must choose.

The EU narrative “has shifted from climate change to strategic autonomy and security,” Alessandro Torello, Director for Energy and Climate at Brussels-based Rud Pedersen consultancy, told Energy Connects. “And more recently, because of the war in Iran, the security argument is even stronger than the climate argument. What we need to keep an eye on is that third element — affordability. The economics, the cost, must go along with the speed of the transition.”

“Because of the war in Iran, the security argument is even stronger than the climate argument. What we need to keep an eye on is that third element — affordability. The economics, the cost, must go along with the speed of the transition.”

- Alessandro Torello, Director for Energy and Climate at Rud Pedersen consultancy

The Act’s central mechanism is a “Made in EU” requirement: public money — government procurement contracts, renewable energy auction subsidies, support schemes — would increasingly have to be spent on equipment produced in the EU. If the transition is being funded by citizens’ taxes, it should generate jobs and factories at home. But for the technologies that matter most, those factories are not ready. China currently fills the gap, and the EU does not control the terms on which it does so.

The Brussels-based Commission formally tabled the IAA proposal in March. It is now being negotiated between the 27 governments and EU institutions and will not be finalised before late 2027, with transition periods ranging from one to six years depending on the technology.

Decarbonisation, competitiveness, and economic security “are not easy to reconcile,” said Marc Vanheukelen, a former EU Ambassador to the World Trade Organization and EU climate envoy. “You have to make trade-offs.”

The offshore wind test

Nowhere is the challenge sharper than in offshore wind. The EU plans to build roughly 109 gigawatts of new offshore capacity by 2035, but the supply chain to deliver it is dangerously thin. There are only three significant European turbine manufacturers — Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and GE Vernova. More than 90% of the permanent magnets that go inside those turbines are produced in China, a dependency that runs all the way down to the extraction and processing of the required rare earth material.

When Beijing tightened export licenses on rare earth magnets in 2025, exports fell by three-quarters, and several European carmakers were forced to halt production. The wind sector has so far been less directly exposed — but as offshore construction accelerates, its dependence on those inputs will deepen at exactly the wrong moment.

The gigawatt target looks considerably harder under a strict Made in EU framework. “If the pylons you need for windmills become more expensive, that will probably slow down their deployment,” Vanheukelen told Energy Connects. “All else equal, the Made in Europe provisions of the IAA will slow things down further.”

Permitting backlogs

You cannot build a sovereign manufacturing base for wind turbines if the wind farms themselves keep getting stuck in planning.

Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy and second-biggest manufacturing power, is the starkest illustration.

On 16 June the country’s main business lobby Confindustria called on Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government to declare a renewable energy emergency, warning that some 4,000 permits for renewable projects totaling 130 gigawatts are currently blocked. Without urgent action, manufacturers will leave for countries with lower energy costs.

Permitting backlogs and grid delays are slowing renewable deployment across the bloc. A “Made in EU” requirement is a difficult sell when demand is not growing fast enough to justify the investment it is supposed to unlock.

Trade pressure and escape clause

The Act faces significant external pressure. China has warned that its rules discriminate against foreign producers and violate international trade commitments. “It is almost certain that China will take countermeasures — export restrictions as well as import restrictions,” said Vanheukelen. “And then we will see whether the EU has the stamina to say: we are going to go on regardless.”

The “Made in EU” definition itself is fiercely contested. France wants strict EU-only rules. Germany favors a broader model including countries that signed trade agreements with the Union such as the United Kingdom and Japan. There is also a financial escape valve. If the cost premium of sourcing Made in EU products exceeds 25%, public authorities could revert to third-country suppliers. “There is a clear willingness to privilege European production,” said Vanheukelen, “but not at any cost.”

“There is a clear willingness to privilege European production, but not at any cost.”

- Marc Vanheukelen, former EU Ambassador to the World Trade Organization and EU climate envoy

The role of the 2022 energy crisis

The Act descends from the Clean Industrial Deal proposed by the Commission last year, and before that from the Net Zero Industry Act — Europe’s answer to the American Inflation Reduction Act and the subsidy race it triggered. But the political wind behind it was sharpened by the 2022 energy crisis, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed how dangerous it is to depend on a single supplier for an essential resource.

That urgency is already fading. The Middle East conflict has temporarily reversed that trend. But Torello cautions against assuming external shocks produce durable policy. “The European Parliament members will vote taking into account what happens the night before if something big happens — in terms of trade, in terms of the EU-China relationship.”

And “if there are big protests from end users saying the products I have to buy are becoming much more expensive, they will go to the Commission and to national governments — not to the European Parliament,” Vanheukelen noted.

When IAA meets AI and…nuclear

IAA and AI share more than a vowel or two. Both represent domains where Europe nurses ambitions while harboring deep external dependencies — with the speed-versus-sovereignty dilemma playing out in almost identical terms.

“If you want data centres in the EU, you need a lot of electricity,” said Torello. “You need to scale that up quickly and massively.”

AI-driven electricity demand will press nuclear back onto the agenda whether Europe is ready or not. Nuclear “used to be a dirty word. Now it has become generally accepted again,” said Vanheukelen. Whether small modular reactors can come on stream before the demand wave hits is another matter. “There might be a timing problem,” he said.

The bond required in onshore federal drilling leases will be cut to $25,000 from the $500,000 imposed during the Joe Biden administration, the department announced Monday. Such bonds ensure that the costs of capping and cleaning up any wells abandoned by drillers don’t fall to taxpayers. 

The change will be subject to a 60-day public comment period once it is published in the Federal Register.

In a separate move, the department is eliminating some provisions and clarifying definitions in the waste-reduction rules that have applied to drilling-permit applications. 

“These targeted updates cut through the red tape that has historically deterred investment, ensuring our public lands remain a reliable engine for economic growth and innovation,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in the statement. 

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

The easing of sanctions, although brief, is a step toward the return of more normalized relations between the two nations, which have been at odds for nearly five decades. The Iranian supply could also alleviate the impact of the worst global oil disruption in history, but it’s unclear if US refiners will have the appetite to resume purchases again. 

When American fuel-makers last imported significant volumes of Iranian oil, the shale boom was still decades away and the Soviet Union was intact, though only months away from collapse. The US was also a net importer of oil, relying heavily on supplies from OPEC countries. 

The final barrels to enter the US before the 1995 oil embargo imposed by the Clinton administration went to fuel-makers in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Chevron Corp and Marathon Petroleum Corp were among the last to import Iranian supplies in 1991, according to Energy Information Administration data. US refineries imported mostly medium sour oils from Iran, a variety that was scarce at the time. 

The history of Iran as an oil supplier to the US changed irrevocably in 1979, when mounting political and civil unrest culminated with the Iranian revolution, driving Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, an ally of the US, into exile. 

American refineries immediately halted purchases of oil from Tehran after US President Jimmy Carter banned imports from the country. Volumes that peaked at 850,000 barrels a day in 1977 slumped to zero a few months after the rise of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

In a letter to the European Commission, countries including Greece, Hungary, Latvia and Poland called for scaling up financing under the Modernization Fund in the post-2030 period as part of an upcoming review of the bloc’s Emissions Trading System. The commission is due to unveil a reform of the carbon cap-and-trade program on July 15. 

The EU ETS has moved to the top of the bloc’s political agenda as the Middle East conflict exacerbated concerns over Europe’s declining competitiveness and some governments criticized carbon pricing for contributing to high energy costs. 

“In the current political and economic context, characterized by increased geopolitical risks and uncertainty, predictable financing mechanisms remain an essential condition for the success of the energy transition in the EU,” the alliance said in a letter seen by Bloomberg News. 

The July review is set to adjust the carbon market to a new climate goal of reducing 90% of greenhouse gases by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. The call by the coalition, which also includes Croatia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Estonia, highlights the emerging battle lines in what is shaping up to be a heated debate on the final shape of the reform.

The Modernization Fund is financed by proceeds from carbon emissions trading to help lower-income EU countries invest in cleaner energy and improve efficiency. The commission estimates its total revenues in the 2021-2030 period at €57 billion, assuming carbon prices of €75 a metric ton. Benchmark emissions contracts traded at around €80 on Monday.

The signatories of the letter also include Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

An explosion and fire hit the Barzan local gas supply facility on Sunday, according to operator QatarEnergy. Qatar’s interior ministry said in an online post that 54 people were injured in the blast, and 18 are missing. 

The Barzan gas plant feeds domestic industries and power generation, and it is unclear if liquefied natural gas output will be affected. Qatar, the second-biggest LNG exporter before the war, halted production of the super-chilled fuel early in the conflict between the US and Iran after attacks on its vast facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The explosion illustrates the challenge that the Gulf nation faces as it seeks to ramp up operations at Ras Laffan, the world’s biggest LNG export plant. Its progress is being closely monitored by the market as a fast resumption would ease global prices. US-Iran tensions saw Dutch natural gas prices — an international benchmark — rise early on Monday. 

Restarting operations at gas facilities is a complex process that requires carefully balancing pressure to avoid damage and leaks. Qatar is seeking to resume 80% of LNG production at Ras Laffan within two months of Hormuz safely opening.

Spanning roughly 300 square kilometers, Ras Laffan is one of the world’s largest industrial hubs, housing LNG export plants, refineries, gas-to-liquids facilities, desalination units, and power stations.

It doesn’t appear that Qatar is trying to slow down the restart of LNG exports. Four tankers — either owned by Qatar’s state shipping company or under long-term charter with the country — were traveling through Hormuz toward Ras Laffan on Monday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Brent crude slipped toward $79 a barrel, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 2.2%, while West Texas Intermediate was near $77. The parties have agreed on a roadmap toward reaching a final deal in 60 days, and technical talks will continue for the remainder of the week, according to a statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan, which are mediating discussions in Switzerland.

The high-level meeting follows a memorandum of understanding signed by both sides last week, which was tested over the weekend after Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating a ceasefire in Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that mediation in Switzerland has delivered major progress to end the conflict in Lebanon.

Negotiations got off to a shaky start when Iranian media reported the Islamic Republic halted discussions following Trump’s threat, but people familiar with the matter said they continued into the early hours of Monday in Switzerland. Talks covered topics including mechanisms to ensure the strait remains open and how to enforce the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, according to a senior US diplomat engaged in the discussions.

The war in the Middle East has choked off supply in a region responsible for a third of the world’s oil production. Crude futures have come off in recent weeks — although prices remain higher than pre-war levels — after global refiners found temporary workarounds, and as the prospect of an end to the conflict fueled optimism over a rapid return to normality.

Despite Iran claiming to have closed Hormuz again, millions of barrels of oil continued to flow through the waterway over the weekend. Still, Chubb Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Evan Greenberg told Fox News that security remains volatile, despite US efforts to open shipping channels.

“We believe markets remain overly optimistic over the sustained resumption of oil flows from the Middle East,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Uncertainties over production and whether vessels are willing to return to the region are set to hamper flows, he added.

A peace deal would in theory unleash a gush of supply where there’s less demand for now, especially given a slump in purchases by top importer China. About 80 million barrels of crude are set to suddenly hit the market should Hormuz fully reopen, threatening to leave refiners swamped.

Meanwhile, Gulf producers are preparing for a production ramp-up, with Kuwait canceling earlier force majeure notices. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. told customers to resume loading supply from inside the Gulf, while selling spot crude in a series of tenders.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

National oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corp. issued a tender to sell naphtha — used to make gasoline and plastics — requiring buyers pick up cargoes from the country’s ports, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. To reach customers, these would need to transit the waterway.

Kuwait’s move is the first such offer in a long while, according to traders, without being specific. It differs from previous sales in that it requires buyers to charter their own vessels, they said. Meanwhile, the company did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside office hours.

Kuwait’s move adds to a flurry of signs from across the region that producers are taking steps to revive vital energy flows following the interim peace deal between Iran and the US. At follow-on talks this weekend, mediators said the sides also established a communication line to avoid incidents and miscalculation, with the aim of ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels through Hormuz.

Last week, Kuwait Petroleum Chief Executive Officer Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said the company had started boosting oil output. All so-called force majeure notices —  a legal clause allowing producers to not honor contractual commitments — that were issued during the war would be lifted, he said.

To be sure, the situation around Hormuz remains fluid, and Kuwait Petroleum’s offer need not mean buyers and shipowners are willing to risk sending a vessel, the traders said. The security of ships transiting Hormuz remains an “hour to hour” play, according to Chubb Ltd., a major insurer.

During the war, Kuwait Petroleum previously shipped liquefied petroleum gas through the chokepoint using its own ships, and also offered crude oil from ships from outside the waterway.

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