US and World Face Reckoning on COP28 Climate Goals, Kerry Says

(Bloomberg) -- Countries will be judged by how well they live up to their joint commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, US climate envoy John Kerry said at the end of COP28 talks meant to avert the worst consequences of global warming.

The nearly 200 nations that signed on to that pact in Dubai “will be judged by everybody in the world,” Kerry said. “Try coming to the next COP and having not done anything. Try putting out a revision of your long-term strategy and not be actually facing up to your challenges.”

That scrutiny will also fall on the US, which is now the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — and built its economy spewing more of that planet-warming pollution than any other nation. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars in spending on climate and clean energy initiatives in last year’s sweeping Inflation Reduction Act, drillers are still opening new oil fields, exporters are sending more natural gas overseas and the government is still green-lighting fossil fuel ventures.

Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate change, said the nation should be assessed holistically — with an eye to how it’s doing on a “pathway to reducing emissions” and curtailing demand for fossil fuels.

President Joe Biden “has a very clear strategy where he is focused on accelerating that transition at home, but at the same time, you’ve got to keep your economy moving in order to be able to keep folks with you and supportive of the transition as well as to be able to fund it and affect it in an orderly just way,” Kerry said.

That could mean a short-term increase in oil and gas activity, Kerry allowed, potentially offset by a big climb in low- and zero-carbon technologies as the US strives toward Biden’s pledge of at least a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade.

For a year or two the US could “pump up” production to meet demand, Kerry noted. But at the same time, there may be investments in battery and electric-vehicle production as well as renewable power. Kerry said the real measure is: “Are you keeping your plan on a place where you can actually deliver on what you promised?”

For the US, the final COP28 decision is a mixed bag. The nation had pressed for greater ambition to limit the permitting of new, unabated coal-fired power plants and throttle fossil fuels. But the declaration is meant to reflect consensus — with any one country, from oil-rich superpowers to small island nations able to object — and that made it harder to drive a more aggressive agreement. Kerry said one minister told him that his country couldn’t afford to “commit economic suicide.”

“I never thought we’d have the kind of breadth we have today,” Kerry said. Under the COP process, “any one country has a veto. One country can say no to the whole thing. That actually makes it even more remarkable that as much ambition is contained in this document.”

The COP28 declaration — which also compels greater action to triple renewable power and double the rate of energy efficiency gains by the end of the decade — will send a signal to investors and executives assessing the risk of their investments, Kerry predicted. “Bankers, people who fund and people who invest in the long term will make a different set of choices. They’re going to stop saying ‘I get paid back on this over the next 30 years’ because they know it’s not going to be happening over the next 30 years.”

The session also caps the end of a formal working relationship between Kerry and his counterpart from China, Xie Zhenhua. The two diplomats have spent decades collaborating on climate diplomacy, but Xie is set to retire after this COP, and Kerry’s future is unclear.

They exchanged thanks and well wishes Wednesday evening, as they wrapped up the climate talks and laid out plans to advance technical working group discussions between the world’s top two emitters. Even if they exit formal government roles, the two are likely to remain active in pushing bolder climate action.

“I feel so lucky that I have made such a huge friend like Secretary Kerry,” Xie said through a translator. “We have been friends for over 20 years. I hope we can continue to work together to make this world a better place.”

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