Oil Slips as Investors Watch for Trump’s Plan on Iran Conflict
(Bloomberg) -- Oil dipped after a volatile trading week as the market focused on whether President Donald Trump will plunge the US into the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Brent slipped toward $76 a barrel after closing marginally higher on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $75. Prices have fluctuated in a range of around $8 this week, with volatility spiking, options getting more bullish, and key spreads significantly widening in backwardation.
Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, but the situation is still evolving and could change, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump concluded a meeting Wednesday with top advisers, but the White House offered few clues about the path forward.
Asked during the day if he was moving closer to bombing Iran, Trump said “I may do it. I may not do it.” The Wall Street Journal reported that the president approved a military attack plan earlier in the week, but withheld the final authorization as he weighed whether Tehran would meet his demands.
The biggest concern for the oil market centers on the Strait of Hormuz, but so far there are no signs that Tehran is seeking to disrupt shipping through the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. About a fifth of the world’s crude output passes through the strait.
“We don’t see it as a likely scenario at this time, but given the precarious state that the Iran regime is in right now, I think everybody should be watching” the Strait of Hormuz, Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, said in a Bloomberg television interview.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 a barrel for Brent due to the conflict, according to a note from analysts including Daan Struyven. However, the bank said its base-case scenario was oil falling to $60 in the fourth quarter, assuming there are no supply disruptions.
“The geopolitical situation remains highly tense, with no signs of easing,” said Gao Jian, a Shandong-based analyst at Qisheng Futures Co. “The market is gradually shifting into a high-level price consolidation phase, awaiting further developments in the Middle East.”
Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined by 11.5 million barrels last week, the biggest draw in almost a year. Stockpiles at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell, while gasoline supplies expanded.
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